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Arinian

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Everything posted by Arinian

  1. Arinian
    Okay, Rand, Megasif. Not sure that I will be here to change my vote again.
  2. Arinian
    Rand. Cause he is elim.
  3. Arinian
    No lobbying, I have only one PM with BR and anyway I never answered her.
  4. Arinian
    You explained everything pretty well, +gut read. I don't know what but something looks wrong in your posts. Maybe it's just me *shrug*, no offense?
  5. Arinian
    Rand.
  6. Arinian
    Ahh.. do what you want I still think you elim Rand.
  7. Arinian
    I already answered look above.
  8. Arinian
    Looks like you missed part with attempt to protect Joe and vote on Striker which can be interpreted as try to create other target for lynch. You right about part with not taking dangerous moves and you right that more players can be accused in it. But main part of players who "not sticked their necks out" is inactives or lurkers(including players who flying under radar) and no one would say that they have village read on them so lurkers and inactives is always in danger that they in one moment can become target for lynch. But you other category you posting many and so gathering many village reads, but I honestly don't see any impact from your posts in this game. You want from me to be more full in my explanations, okay. From Joe's post we know that he was this guy. I can't remember where Joe stands on the C1 lynch discussion, so I can't judge if this comment seems out-of-character for him. What I'm most wondering about is why he said it if he is an elim and was fully intending on capitalizing on the D1 lynch. it makes me wonder whether Walin is using the fact that Joe supposedly said this to cover himself in case he can't stop the Joe lynch. It's a somewhat tenuous suspicion, and it isn't helped by the fact that the doc is apparently inaccessible during the day (so we know this wasn't a case of talking the doc). Still, if anyone knows where Joe stands normally in regard to C1 lynches, I'd appreciate it if you could share that info. Talking about elims not having vote manip or inactivity of their vote manipulators. Second part strikes me as slightly elimy cause your suspiciouns based on something looks for me as scratch, sometimes it's hard for elims hard to write realistically looking suspicion, that how it looks for me. NAI. Same as previous it's not hard to write how votes progressed and make conclusion that people who voted on elim is villagers. Next post almost same. And next also. Next too NAI. And next! Wow!(You guys really want me to quote that all?) Than scratch about Lemon... Vote tally and talking that he don't have nothing against Roadwalker's lynch. I mean BR blames me for lynches of villagers but as you can see Rand didn't have nothing against lynch on both Road or Walin. Also I blamed for flawed vote when Rand's reasoning for vote on Lemon was much weaker. Hmm... I would say that also NAI. So what in fact what we have in the end, many post but without any solid thoughts in them on the other side we have something that can be interpreted as attempt to save elim(Joe) from lynch(Add this to why you not the same as other players who "not sticked their neck out"). So you still sure that he contributed many to conversation? To activity undoubtebly to discussion.. nahh... So in fact we have much more reasons for Rand to be elim than me and his accusations on his suspects much weaker. And I surely as elim wouldn't try to attack with suspicions someone like Rand it's too risky. Of course maybe I'm just trying other plays to fool you but that IKYK.
  9. Arinian
    So you voting for me not for suspicion but just because our views on certain players not same? Or you have some other reasons that made you suspect me, can you explain? Or what makes you believe that Rand villager, quote this and explain, I will be grateful. Also I obviously explained why I suspect Rand if you want I can bring quotes from his posts.
  10. Arinian
    "You can place anywhere from 1 to 5 players on the front as your lynch". I'm little bit confused with wording of this part, is everyone can vote for maximum of 5 players? Or everyone who will get 2 or more votes will be lynched? Also players who will be choosen to go at the front of the bridge will be 100% lynched or with some random chance? Also as I understood everyone will have random chance to die which will depend on number of people who will go at the front? Right now I will vote for Rand. We should remember that in this game elims can't use doc on day turns and so it's much harder for them to cooperate to protect one of them or etc. Also I want point on indirect attempt to defend Joe in Rand's post above. Also after that he voted on Striker for being "bandwagony". I wanted to quote all his posts and say what suspicious in them but I decided that it would take too long. Mostly he talks about NAI things, why elims probably don't have vote manip, about Jon being villager after elims hit him, etc. It's usual for elims stating not dangerous truth and pointing on things like that. Of course he provided some suspicions on Striker and Lemon with basis, but I honestly don't agree with his conclusions atleast about Lemon, can't say what I think about Striker if he is elim it was too risky move. Anyway Striker is pretty easy target to accuse and Lemon was not very active so it's not much more dangerous for elim to accuse her. Honestly I don't want to lynch Rand even if he most suspicious for me right now. He is good player and if I wrong it will be bad to lose him. Maybe I should wait results of lynch on Striker and then decide what to think about Rand... I think I will keep my vote for now.
  11. Arinian
    Oh, okay. This explains everything, Rae is only active eliminator so Lemon is elim. Belive Rae and in same time don't belive her, logical. Sorry maybe you didn't noticed that before but I'm super stubborn and as I said to Orlok before, we will talk after Rae will be lynched. And I don't think that Lemon is elim.
  12. Arinian
    Sure, sure. Of course it's tunneling and drastic change from Rae on Lemon it's just me tunneling, sorry for it.
  13. Arinian
    1) Hoped to clear yourself by sacrificing teammate, nothing unusual. 2) I doubt that it good idea for elims, clear(distance) yourself by well executed trick is much better then cooperate with your teammate(especially when you said that you suspicios of your teammate). So if you had tried to lynch PK with Rae than it would look pretty suspicious. 3) I don't know, for me it's meant nothing I already was suspicious of Rae. Anyway enough about that, it leads to nothing. Lynch on Rae on next turn will show if my suspicions have some base under it. Then we will talk.
  14. Arinian
    Well, you right. Still that no changes my reasons for suspiciouns on you. Also Aonar is lurking most of time so I can't say what I think about him. I think next turn lynch on Rae will provide us with needed info. If she survives then we will know that my direction of thought is fully wrong and we should look for elims in other places, if Rae will die from lynch than there chance that I'm right, atleast partially. Also normal number of elims for 25 players is 5 and if we right and Rae is Seer(not converted Thug) then maximum of elims for us right now is 4. I never discarded possibility that you have more then 1 bead of atium left or that you haven't used them at all. But it's pretty easy to check by lynching you again. If I was elim I would surely keep 1 bead of atium unused just in case if I will get info about useful roles for elims to convert or to spread confusion in late game... or for something else *shrug*.
  15. Arinian
    I'm just looked D5 and now it looks for me like "Wow, wow what a damnation cool turn by elims!" Just think of it people started to be suspicious of Wilson and Rae and they both elims and what the better way to distance than imitate attempt to lynch each other. And drama... what a drama by Wilson! Just put all together. Main suspects on D5 from my point of view were Wilson and Rae(and PK but no one wanted to lynch... only Orlok said something about lynching PK if I not wrong). Wilson's vote on herself after Rae gets couple votes, it's looked like Wilson just annoyed by our "unreasonable suspicions", but looking back I see... tie main part in tie between Rae and Wilson played Wilson's vote on herself and last two votes by Orlok and Rae... why they keeped their votes for so long... hmm... I think that they just wanted to be sure to create tie. Only problem with this theory it's two soothers... how high chance for elims to convert 2 soothers... pretty low I will say they should be really lucky for it. So in worst scenario for village elims converted 2 soothers and so right now they can make tie with 6 votes. Or one soother is elim and other is just was in contact with elims, trusted them and was manipulated in creating tie(don't knowing about that). I don't have any info about who can be this soothers. Conclusion: I think that tie between Rae and Wilson on D5 was planned distancing. For me right now most probable elim team is Rae, Orlok, Wilson, Araris. Araris because he jumped from one suspicion to another and tried not to take part in successful lynches(I mean he voted for someone who have had low chances to be lynched on certain turn). That's pretty good way to fly under radar and not to be blamed for mislynch, this kind of behavior pretty usual for Araris so my conclusion about Araris not so sure as about others. Also I still think that PK can be another probable elim. He disappeared after his chance to be lynched increased and still possible that Rae's vote(on C2 I think...) on PK was dinstancing still here. But as I like to say, I can be fully wrong Paranoia says: "Never discount inactives or lurkers as possible elims "
  16. Arinian
    I said that Lemon's actions is NAI, but I think you anyway meant that. Also guys you should stop all this warm funny talks... now I think that everyone active players in this game except me is elims.(paranoia grows... damnation) Also I think that DA right, Wilson and Orlok is elims but I like to doubt my own conclusions so I not gonna lynch them immediately after we will lynch(finally) Rae. Reasons why I suspect Orlok and Wilson pretty obvious and were stated by DA and me. I just see another pattern now, Orlok and Wilson tried to save Rae for one more turn to give her time to use last atium bead to convert someone. Or they hoped that no one would pressure on them to lynch Rae. Also I little bit paranoid about DA(not suspicious) cause he playing toooooo good for normal DA, his behavior it's something unusual for him... maybe he controled by brain parasite which loves forum mafia.
  17. Arinian
    Stop using this smile ==> this smile(or use if you want, but still it makes me paranoid ) makes me paranoid. What if I wrong and you not elim and I somehow were fooled by Wilson? See what you have done? Also I almost sure that only lurcher in this game is dead.
  18. Arinian
    And I'm was right! I think... And I'm cleared(cause I pushed for Rae's or PK's lynch since... C2? I'm not sure)! And now elims will kill me cause elims don't like cleared villagers... damnation. I mean, if I understand it right and Rae is Seer(not converted Thug) than we right now just killed 2 elims, cause she wasted one bead of atium to survive and that's good isn't it?
  19. Arinian
    Right now it's just question of trust, if Rae is elim, then I will be more than okay with Lemon's lynch. Orlok. Rae.
  20. Arinian
    I don't agree with your points about Lemon(cause all her behavior for me looks like NAI), but all what you said about Rae seems right and solid. So if you will change your vote on Rae I also will change my vote on her, it's not blackmail(just saying it because some people like to read to much in my words), it's just proposition of fair deal.
  21. Arinian
    Voting for Roadwalker for reasons which I stated on previous turn. I know that my activity is weak and I don't have reall reasons for it... I'm just lazy, sorry.
  22. Arinian
    And what suspicious you found in Lemon's behavior? Stating obvious things? You also stated obvious things like "killing inactives don't gives us any profit", that's obvious, atleast I count it so. Or what reasons that made you so suspicious of Lemon cause I don't see "good" reasons. I don't have nothing against Lemon's lynch but if I right mislynch can be crucial for village right now and so lynching undoubtable elim (for you it's Rae) and after that seek for other probable elims it's much better, cause if we will lynch elim it will give us additional turn to seek for probable elims without risk to be on the edge of lose(cause as I said with that lvl of activity we can leave lynch in elims hands).
  23. Arinian
    DA you just said what I think, stop reading my thoughts . I don't understand why Lemon is more suspicious than somebody else, she(Lemon is she? Sorry but I forgot) is flying under radar but not much more then Steeldancer(and he was villager) did, Orlok also was flying under radar of course he said that his low activity were caused by IRL things, but we have much more people then Lemon who flying under radar or lurking. So I don't understand all this focus on Lemon, especially when on previous cycle Orlok stated that he pretty suspicious of Rae and PK, but now he changed his mind and Lemon became suspect number 1, maybe I'm stupid or missed something(I don't discount both of this possibilities) but what influenced Orlok's suspicions so radically. And here we going to part why I voted for Orlok. Right now we have 18 alive players(if I not miscounted) for 25 initial players normal number of elims is 5(1 Seer with 4 atium beads)(can be influenced by many thing and blah blah blah, so hypothetically it can be 4 elims or... I don't know choose any other number that you like), so we have presumably 5 elims and 13 villagers, but from this 18 players 12(I'm not sure about this number... just pulled it from my head but lvl of activity is surely unsatisfying) is active. In worst case scenario we have 5 active elims and 7 active villagers(and as Wyrm said he not gonna count inactive players for elim win con), so if all our elims is active 1 mislynch and we dead. Okay, enough of this nonsense counting. Why Orlok voted on Lemon? I pretty obviously stated on previous turn that I would vote for Orlok or Wilson if Rae is villager and I'm sure I'm not the only one who will vote for Orlok if Rae is villager so for elims best it's to push back Rae's lynch. They causing Lemon's lynch and what elims will get from it?(Also it's easy enough for full elim team rule lynch as they want on this stage of game(with this lvl of activity). Right, they will get time cause after Lemon's lynch it would be much easier to cause mislynch on someone like Rae(not cause people love to lynch Rae or something else, just cause she gathered many suspicions), (and if Rae would be lynched on this cycle and she is villager many people will look on Orlok or Wilson as probable elims). And so after 2 cycles of mislynches and same lvl of activity village will lose almost certainly. But as you can see my counting and situation don't fit together(cause if I were right about numbers than it would much easier for elims to lynch Rae on this cycle and they won), so or I'm wrong about number of active villagers or elims have inactive players or Seer still not used al atium. Still that problem with numbers not changes situation that lynch on Lemon pretty good for Orlok or Wilson if they are elims. (I hope atleast someone will understand what I tried to say ) Also I'm still not sure what to think about Rae or PK, cause after people started to suspect them, they started to fly under radar(lurk), it looks pretty elimy. Anyway, that's what I think, believe me or not it's all that you got it's all that I give . Maybe I'm wrong about everything and we should look in other places for elims but I don't have other better guesses for elims and so I will keep my vote on Orlok.
  24. Arinian
    Voting for Orlok. He is obviously elim.
  25. Arinian
    I still haven't cheked previous cycle but from Rand's analyze I can say that right now as suspicious for me can be counted Roadwalker and Walin. Roadwalker cause elims probably have vote manip and wanted to try save Joe but in the end decided that it's will be too revealing if Roadwalker after his vote on Joe will vote for Jon. Maybe miscommunication or something else, it's just guess. Voting for Walin because I don't see big difference between voting on one probable elim than on other.
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