livinglegend

45 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

One of you is probably Ruin then, as I find it unlikely that they just GUESSED that Drought had Honor.

I disagree. I am not Ruin, and if Drake is ruin I guess he had a fifty -fifty shot between Drought and me as neither of us had a shard. I think it's more likely a village!Ruin suspected Drought of being a part of a conversion faction or an elim!Ruin suspecting Drought of being part of the other faction and thus sniped him from another world.

It'll come up whether I say it or not. Drought was on Scadrial and the three of us (Drought, Drake and I) agreed to go after the shard so we could get a village Honor vessel. I'm not sure exactly how passing shards works, but just in case Odium feels like shattering Honor, I will neither claim to have nor not have Honor.

13 hours ago, Seonid said:

 

Eternum (4): Hemalurgic Headshot, Jondesu, livinglegend, Ripple
Jondesu (5): Devotary, Drake Marshall, Fifth Scholar, Young Bard, Anonymous
Ripple (3): Droughtbringer, Joe, TheYoungPyromancer
Droughtbringer (1): shanerockes
Fifth Scholar (1): Steeldance

Huh, I could have sworn I retracted my vote on Eternum. (Page 66)

27 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

Pyromancer and Steeldancer are not on Scadrial... Are they supposed to be?

Otherwise the list is correct.

I can confirm Drought, Drake, Patji and I are the only ones on Scadrial. 

I'm sorry for my sparse contributions. Thank you Stick for your analysis of Eternum. I don't think Fifth Scholar is ruin. I believe that he went for Odium for day one as he claimed that action at a time that Odium seemed more scary (at least to me) than Ruin did. I also went for Ruin and I remember only one other person claiming that action. My guess is there is a fourth person who did not reveal that they attempted to siphon investiture from Odium who holds it, but that is neither here nor there. 

My point is since I don't believe Fifth Scholar took Ruin, and I now believe Eternum doesn't hold it, I'm going to go back and see if I can find anything indicating the other two.

On 3/26/2018 at 0:15 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Why would this make you believe his neutral claim? If you made a misleading claim, what was stopping Drake from doing the same?

Sorry, I missed this question as I was reading through. I was worried about the speed of the pile on (and said as much) and assumed it was a last effort to switch the vote to a good player. Drake wasn't on my radar (or anyone else's) at the time and so claiming neutral wasn't saving him from suspicion. I was willing to believe him for a cycle and was more worried we were losing a true neutral for my goofing around.

To get the adrenaline going and leave it to the gods, I will vote to tie it...

Dang ninjas Jon

I have been on silverlight the whole game (until it exploded). Night zero I attempted Odium, night one I tried ambition, night three endowment, and four honor. I have no investiture, shards, secret factions or way to prove any of this. All I can say is I haven't been in any world docs until now , and can confirm this:

2 hours ago, Droughtbringer said:

Drake LivingLegend and I are on Scadrial

Given recent analysis, I'll place my vote on Eternum. 

16 minutes ago, The_Lady_of_Chaos said:

So, from what I can tell, livinglegend is currently on the chopping block? I’m not going to vote this round just because I’m still kinda unsure who’s who, and me voting would either be bandwagon if or random. I’m going to try to be more active. I apologize now if I fail to be....

 

also, can I get a vote count?

Welcome Lady of Chaos

Haha. Ninja'd by Devotary doing what I was going to do.

53 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

I will second the fact that this is a role, as I also have it. it is called a Scholar 

This may go without saying, but this role in no way guarantees a village alignment. We have no reason to doubt the veracity of this role. My guess is there is an elim with this role who has yet to claim. 

I don't think Steel is bad because information is good for the village and I don't know why an elim would give that much information to us. I don't think Drought is an elim because Drake was trying to lynch him.

I'll bet we have one more citizen and one escaped who have yet to reveal themselves.

Edit: 2 ninjas

Yes, Chaos made more sense as a lynch target, but it didn't matter either way. I was too late and it wouldn't have been enough ( thank goodness given the result).

I apologise for all the confusion. Quite simply, I felt bad for Drake. I believed his neutral claim because *drumroll please* I am a citizen of Kharbranth. I was phishing for an elim contact like Orlock described. When Drake claimed neutral and was about to be lynched because he was possibly the second to claim, I felt my misinformation had doomed someone to die in the last ten minutes of the cycle. 

As it turned out, it's a good thing we did. For all my talk of getting information I usually feel bad for lynching people, hence my reliance on the gods of luck and chance and my vote on the person I erroneously thought was in second place.

I think Drought is village based on Drakes campaign to lynch him, but I admit it doesn't carry as much water as he may have just tried to distance himself to protect a teammate. I don't think that is the case though as Drake wasn't being lynched until the very end of the cycle.

Well, Drought is all but cleared in my eyes now. Next to analyze all the vote changes.

Drought

Wow. A four way tie. I kind of want to leave it and hope the gods of luck and chance get involved. I don't like the sudden lynch on Drake, though.

In the interest of fun, I'd prefer to lynch Chaos. In the interest of information, Madagascar makes the most sense. 

I'll lurk for another minute and see what else happens.

Edit: nope, I'm going to leave it as it is.

Fair point Fifth Scholar. My goal is to lynch someone who will provide the most information on the workings of this game upon their death. I wouldn't mind hitting an eliminator, but given that our odds of hitting an eliminator are a bit small I want to get all the info I can. (though an eliminator would shine a lot of light on this situation.)

I hope to be able to place a more substantial vote before the end of the cycle

1 hour ago, Eternum said:

Neutral, possibly. The way they worded it could also mean they're village, but why not say it straight-out in that case? @livinglegend I'd appreciate it if you could go into more detail regarding your win con. More importantly, are you, in fact, Neutral?

Either way, if telling the truth, could be a valuable asset to both sides. I'd like to ask you to help the village, out here in the open. I can't exactly ensure your survival-- I honestly can't ensure mine-- but you have a better chance of winning with the village than with the elims, probably. If you're even telling the truth.

I didn't expect this comment to spark this much interest. Please allow me to answer your question with a question. Would you have believed me if I had said I was village? It probably would have been viewed as NAI (which I guess I thought this comment was anyway). What if I had claimed neutral? That may have received a bit more scrutiny as Orlock puts it:

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

LivingLegend is likely to draw scans and greater scrutiny for having claimed a non-eliminator win condition (and in doing so implying a non-village win condition). I don’t think an eliminator is likely to do that, but could see a villager doing so to try to persuade eliminators to claim to him. 

All this being the case, I will affirm my non-eliminator win condition. As a little additional information, I can win with the village. Read into that all that you want

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On the current lynch, I don't like killing Eternum. What has been stated over and over and over, but it feels like we are all missing is that the day one lynch is meant to give us information. Until very recently, Eternum's posts have not directly tied him with or against any other player or even any role or distribution ideas. I feel lynching him (even if he somehow was an eliminator) would give us very little information about the game. Much more interesting to me was Stink's post tying players together.

On 3/24/2018 at 8:31 AM, STINK said:

So when I look back at the thread to kinda apply that to any posts relating to such a matter, it seems that:

• Fifth and Kynedath use the term 'elims' implying that they are all for their being multiple starting elims.
• Stick is for there being conversions, and seems to also do what I did in leaping from there being at least one elim to there being one elim who will have extra help in some way.

I feel that a lynch on Fifth Scholar, Kynedath, or Stick would be much more useful as far as gathering data as they used these terms. With Fifth Scholar being unlikely to get back on this Cycle, I will vote for Kynedath. I feel like he has written posts that will give us more information when we find his role and alignment.

Edit: Triple ninja. Also it appears my information was reversed and it is Kynedath, not Fifth Scholar who is unlikely to be able to defend themself.

Also checking in. I'll say I do not have an eliminator win condition. (Let the IKYK begin).

Reading through I wasn't sure why anyone was assuming there might be a conversion faction until Stink made his post on why we should. When I read that rule, it said to me "The GM is not the villain of this game" as in "there will be at least one eliminator." I'm going to go back through and look at those who jumped to a conversion faction, because if this turns out to be true, it seems like they had more information about the evil team than the rest of us.

I'm willing to consider a conversion elim team, but I'm not sure I want to put all my eggs in that basket yet.

Of all shards, Honor is the last in containment? I'd have thought a protection role would have been a higher priority for all three factions. Especially the conversion ones

I'd consider switching my vote as close as this is, but that would tie the vote and I'd rather attempt to lynch someone I think holds survival for the marginal information instead of tying it up and losing that opportunity.

Meh. My count might be off by one. That's all. Like I said it doesn't change much. Even Autonomy can't do much here.

Yeah, sorry. I decided to scrap it and go back from the start. This should be better.

TheYoungPyromancer (9): Monster Metroid,Hemalurgic Headshot, Straw, Randuir, Fifth Scholar, Steeldancer, Jondesu, Eternum, Livinglegend

Straw (4): Drake Marshall, Stick, Sart, TheYoungPyromancer

Hemalurgic Headshot (2): Elbereth, Arinian

Arinian (1): Bard

@Eternum Did you ever retract your votes on the Sand Lord or on Straw, because that may alter the results a little. Not enough to really count, but there you have it. 

9 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Could you clarify those reasons anyway, even if they're obvious, and tell me why a single invested Shard is dangerous enough that it isn't worth the side effect of everyone on the world getting charges from it?

Hmm. My reasoning was I didn't want to give the conversion factions a foothold, but you have a good point. If I argue that Autonomy should be left one or two aspects as a hedge against ruin or odium, the same should be true of the Standard of Harmony. Maybe even more so as you've pointed out that we can glean investiture by being on the planet as opposed to having to lynch the aspect to get the investiture. 

9 hours ago, Elbereth said:

More generally, I'm wary of this post because it's fairly clearly drawing focus onto Shards and thus away from Hoid/Khriss. And while the Shards are clearly more interesting to talk about - look at Orlok's data of relative mentions - that only means we need to be more careful not to ignore the conversion teams.

You and Orlock are both correct that it is a lot of fun to talk about shards. Even more so than the conversion factions because I would assume that most if not all of us are slightly infatuated with the idea of becoming a vessel. Plus, with two to one shards to players compared with the almost five to one odds of being converted to a faction, we all have higher hope of obtaining shardic power. /rant

More importantly, I feel that we need to treat all potentially thirteen conversion factions as threats. @Seonid I apologize if this is answered elsewhere, but does the game end as soon as one of the fourteen factions reaches their goal? 

If that is the case, it seems to me that Hoid and Kriss have win conditions that take longer than some of the shards, so the shards will take precedence. You're right we can't ignore them, but we can fight them in an organized manner.

(Wow, rereading this I sound angry. That is not my intention. you brought up valid points and I appreciate you challenging the way I have thought about this.)

8 hours ago, Arinian said:

Also getting somewhat bad feeling about El and livinglegend but that's mostly gut read. Maybe I can pull something from their posts but I'm not going to lie, right now I'm just to lazy to analyze their posts.

Ouch! is this because I was willing to lynch you last cycle? I apologize. Any info was better than the no lynch.

6 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

For the same reasons, I think that it is unlikely that Pyromancer is Hoid. A Hoid!Pyromancer could have created a PM last night and claimed he stole from Cultivation, or worldhopped to Roshar on Day 1 for a slower, but safer, way of faking the acquisition of Cultivation's Investiture. 

That is a really good point that I hadn't thought about. As such, I would prefer to put our attention elsewhere. I still feel like Pyromancer is Survival and so I don't see a whole lot of point in lynching them. Right now we think they are either Survival or Kriss. If we lynch them and they live then they are either survival or Kriss. This seems circular and almost pointless. Maybe I'm missing a bigger picture.

5 hours ago, Magestar said:

Odium

Just yes. so much yes. And I might add Hoid.

2 hours ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

If you wish, you could lynch me two turns in a row, which would prove my neutral-ness.

Could someone please present a numbered list of the accusations against me?  I am not even completely sure what they are.

The issue with this is we lose all information we get from confirmed villagers (and/or advantage we get from lynched eliminators) for the next two turns in exchange for a soft clear on you. I'm not a huge fan of this bandwagon, anyway. Here, let me find a vote tally.

Pyromancer (8): Magestar, Monstermetroid, Hemalurgic Headshot, Straw, Randuir, Fifth Scholar, Steeldancer, Eternum, Livinglegend
Straw (3): Drake, Stick, Randuir, Eternum
Hemalurgic Headshot (4): Livinglegend, Fifth Scholar, Elbereth, Arinian, Magestar, Pyromancer
Arinian (1): Bard
The Sand Lord (0): Pyromancer
Orlok (0): Monstermetroid
Fifth Scholar (0): Pyromancer
Stick (0): Randuir

I'll go back and gather as much evidence as I can for both leading candidates and get back with a vote before the cycle is over. First I need to post this before I lose it all.

Edit: darn it Eternum. That is a solid point. Hoid Pyro For now. I'll see what else I can find.

Edit 2 updating vote counts

35 minutes ago, Seonid said:

Slight alteration to the rules as printed.

If Ruin attempts to destroy a world that has a Shard or aspect of a Shard invested in it, the aspect is destroyed or the Shard is divested, but the world is not destroyed. This is a change from the original, which indicated that if Ruin destroyed a world, it automatically destroyed aspects or divested Shards.

That's a relief. I have been looking at potential game clocks, and if all ruin needs is to destroy the planets he was going to be the hardest to stop.

I really would love some investiture (at this point, of any kind). However, the aspects of autonomy seem to be our best hedge against ruin. The other option is giving Kriss shards to invest which I'm against for obvious reasons. 

I'm currently on mobile, but when I get back I'll post an updated risk assessment including each released shard for who can kill us the fastest. I believe that needs our priority. 

Important for now: I don't think we can allow autonomy more than three aspects, but we should keep around one or two to prevent an early ruin win.

1 hour ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

I wasn't referring to my plans. It just seemed to me that the players as a whole had put a lot of effort into trying to plot out Shard actions and predict outcomes. I wanted to point out that it might be more complicated than previously thought. 

I haven't even gotten a PM yet, but then again, PMs are a bit more difficult to make this game.

Does this satisfy your curiosity?

I suppose that is fair enough Hemalurgic Headshot.

I agree with Drake that Ruin is most likely playing to their potential win condition as opposed to the 17th shard's.

It is interesting that Odium didn't attack anyone and if you are still attempting to work for the 17th shard, can I recommend that you pass your shard to Pyromancer and have him pass it back. This just because he can't have been converted and still can't convert to become Odium. That way you retain your win condition without losing your shard.

Or you could pass it to me that would be fine too

I can't help but wonder if anyone has received investiture yet. I also went for ambition and did not receive the shard. I'll admit if I had, I'd probably already be playing to its win condition. Assuming that is the case, we now have a best case scenario 1 AC, 1 SoH, 8 vessels, and 12 17th Sharders. At worst we have 3 AC, 3 SoH,  8 Vessels and 8 17th Shard. In the latter case, we are already about to be outnumbered if the shards decide to work with the conversion factions especially if it's Odium or Ruin working with them. 

@Hemalurgic Headshot I'm sorry if this seems tunnel-y, but I still want to know what you meant when you said all your shard planning might have been wasted. Who were you planning with? I'd love to know what your plans were. I'll likely change my vote if you can answer these questions, but for now Hemalurgic Headshot. 

We have three shards left in containment and potentially 12 17th sharders left to go for them. Given this I'll bet the rest get released tonight. I will probably leave the planet as no one will be getting investiture tonight, and at the very least I might get some information on where/ who Autonomy is.

I assume they also do not count against?