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Nyali

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Everything posted by Nyali

  1. Nyali
    Umm, Assassin has three votes this turn. I'm talking about this turn.
  2. Nyali
    This cycle should end with only two people having votes for them. That's the only way the village can win. We need two trains - the elims aren't going to vote for themselves when only one lynch is needed for them to win. (Unless I'm wrong about the number or what happens on a tie.) We need to wind up consolidated. EDIT: @Amanuensis - I'm not going to bother trying to defend myself, but I'd like you to look at the voting patterns of this turn. Do you think @Assassin in Burgundy is an eliminator? That train on him stared awfully fast. If you think he's innocent, whom among the voters for him is most suspicious to you? I'm not certain you are an elim, that was a gut read from the fact that you've been wrong a lot. But, I do believe very strongly that the elims are going to focus their votes this turn. I don't expect you to change your vote, but in the case that you are a villager, which of Clanky, Doc, and Stick do you trust the least?
  3. Nyali
    Why Wonko? Just because of the vote on you? If we were elims, why would we kill Ec and not you if we were planning to try to get you lynched? It would have been infinitely easier to do that the other way around. That just doesn't make any sense. @Jondesu and @Assassin in Burgundy - could we please get votes from you two? The only way we stand a chance is if all villagers vote. We have a distinct disadvantage in that the elims can cancel a vote with their kill.
  4. Nyali
    I can get behind an Aman vote. I'm now thinking Clanky, Aman, and Stick are the elims. I know that's a reversal from earlier, but I don't think Assassin is an elim, and I think the elims are going to be the most organized and are going to get their votes down sooner rather than later. Doc Amanuensis
  5. Nyali
    @Assassin in Burgundy @Wonko the Sane @Jondesu - Could any of you add to the discussion and/or vote? The elims just need one more kill, and if townies aren't active, the elims completely control the vote.
  6. Nyali
    That was me illustrating and emphasizing that if we mislynch twice, we lose. I've been assuming a tie in numbers is a loss, though since tied lynches kill a random player, maybe we don't lose until the elims have strictly more people than we do? If that's the case, our odds are slightly better. What I've been wondering lately is, Aman has been doing extremely thorough analyses since he joined. The elims have not killed him, they are instead killing people who aren't following his lead. If so many of us are so certain that he's a townie, why haven't the elims killed him yet? Is anyone else worried by this? We have one chance left (assuming ties go to the eliminators) to be right here.
  7. Nyali
    I think that if you've found something that gives you a useful action that you can take every night, you shouldn't explore. But, if you have nothing, exploring may still be a good idea. Dunno, it depends on how likely omens are over cool stuff. I'd expect omens to be much rarer now that there are five elims, but since the game is huuuge, that might not be the case.
  8. Nyali
    Dang it. Well, that's pretty much game. Next mislynch and we lose, and I look suspicious enough now that you're all probably going to go after me. I wonder who the actual elims are now... Part of me wants to say it's actually Clanky and Aman, and we didn't have a kill because they hadn't taken over yet and the elims were all inactive. But I'm still suspecting Doc more.
  9. Nyali
    I thought I already did... I didn't think DA would drop the game if he were cast as an elim, and DA's only vote was for Stink. That's really all I've got in that regard, but it's more than I have for some others. I don't find Clanky's vote on me to be suspicious because he gave reasoning.
  10. Nyali
    I don't think that lynch chart is right. This is what I'm seeing: Assassin: Araris, Straw, JUQ, Jondesu Arinian: Clanky, Ecthelion, Assassin, Magestar Straw: Wilson, Haelbarde Nathan: Unodus, Elenion Does this look right? Did I miss any votes or changes? It looks like we're headed for a no lynch, which is bad, but I don't really suspect either Assassin or Arinian that much =\
  11. Nyali
    Ditto. That's exactly how I feel right now about posts from before today. All I've really read was what was said today. A summery of prior turns would be great =\ From what I've gathered by reading today's posts: Arinian was being targeted for being inactive, but when they became active and posted, people continued the vote for them because they didn't like how he seemed to be against lynching (which makes me suspicious of him, because lynches are how the village wins). Araris was briefly targeted for having a name too similar to Arinian's (oops?). Ecthelion was being targeted for suggesting people with scanning roles should contact him privately (which I find extremely suspicious). Nathan is being targeted for being completely inactive (which I agree with - inactives don't contribute much to the game and mislynching one isn't usually a big deal compared to mislynching an active villager). What I'm missing is why Assassin is being targeted. Could someone explain that one? Am I missing anyone else?
  12. Nyali
    I have no read on Assassin... I looked through all of Assassin's posts in this thread, and they were basically informationless. I'm kind of scared at how little we know about Assassin now... They've said and done basically nothing all game, which could mean anything.
  13. Nyali
    I'll switch my vote to solidify the lynch on someone I'm suspicious of. Doc and Polking. If we're wrong and he's a villager, at least he's an inactive one.
  14. Nyali
    And if I kept going after Polking ignoring new information, I bet people would say I was tunneling on Polking and that's suspicious xD No, I'm not stopping going after Polking, and I do think that Polking's inactivity is what lead to the failed elim kill. But, your actions have been more suspicious to me lately, and if Polking is an inactive elim, killing an active one seems like a better idea. We can't mislynch this time though, and I'm really concerned about it. I'm hesitant to vote for Jondesu because if Jondesu was really an elim, the logical thing for the elims to do last night would have been to kill one of the people voting for Jondesu and not leave the tie in place. But, that turns into one of those ikyk situations, because they might not have broken the tie because they wanted us to trust Jondesu more. I'm still hesitant to vote for him, and there are probably two other elims out there to go for. On a side note, I don't think there were 5 elims to start because that's just too many for a 17 player game. The MafiaScum conventions, if I'm remembering them right, have 4 elims in their 17 player game format, and that's with ~2 village power roles. So that's what I'm expecting here. I could be wrong of course, but especially in a game with literally no power roles, 5v12 just seems too hard. I guess we'll find out when the game's over which it is. Maybe we should have everyone post the 3-4 people they think are most likely the elim team, and go for the person who is on most of the shared lists? 33% of the remaining players are elims (since we villagers know that we are not elims, that leaves a pool of 9 players, 3 of which are elims). We should be able to figure out between us who at least one of them is. I'd like us to have some form of consensus of who to vote for this turn because I don't want the elims breaking a tie with their kill forcing a mislynch (like they could have done last turn if Jondesu was an elim). Right now, I'm going with Doc, Polking, and .... gods, I can't decide between Jondesu and Wonko, both of whom I have suspicions of, but weak ones. Oh, and as a final defense of myself, I'd like to point out that if I were an elim, I would have killed one of the people going for Jondesu or Magestar if both were innocent and one of the people going for Jondesu is Jondesu was also a traitor. That would have either saved another traitor rather than leaving it up to chance, or if both are innocent, it would have put strong suspicion on the one who was saved by the kill. It's just the logical move, and while I can see reasons why the elims didn't do it, that's now how I would have played it. I'm still trying to figure out what it means that the elims didn't do this last night, and what it says about Jondesu's alignment.
  15. Nyali
    I'm trying to follow this game, but I'm so far behind and there are so many people in the game to follow. The Ooklas don't help because none of the early posts by them are signed, so reading the posts from the beginning of the game to now was rather difficult earlier when I tried. I'll see if I can find the time to go through the old posts again though. I don't think I'll be able to contribute much until I do.
  16. Nyali
    To clarify my own post, what I mean by this is that Daniyah was killed by the elims, and Wonko would have had motive, but that could be what the elims want us to think... Also, I should probably place a vote. I'm going to go with Doc instead of Polking for now. As Doc points out, he's been involved with every mislynch so far, and I really thought that out of Mage and Doc, one of them was an elim. That was the impression I had gotten from their posts. EDIT: Voting patterns. DA's only vote was for Stink C2, and your only vote was made (the one on me) was made for logical reasons I could follow. I'm not an elim, but my voting pattern has been really off, mostly due to Thanksgiving. Also, and most importantly in my eyes, I think DA wouldn't have dropped the game if he was an elim. Aman strikes me as village because of his going after Stink and his analyses. I'm having trouble getting reads on half the remaining game though. I should have something to say about Ecthelion, but I really don't. I'll have to go back and look through his posts at some point. EDIT2: Also, we need to be extremely careful. Two more mislynches and we lose the game, assuming we had 4 elims to start (which is the usual number for a game of this size, right? Sqrt(#players) = #elims?) Right now, it's 7 of us and 3 of them. Assuming they don't forget to kill again, the possible paths go something like: 7/3 7/3 7/3 7/3 7/3 7/3 5/3 5/3 5/3 6/2 6/2 6/2 3/3 4/2 4/2 4/2 4/2 5/1 2/2 3/1 2/2 3/1 3/1 1/1 1/1 1/1
  17. Nyali
    Okay, well, I guess my suspicion of Mage was wrong, but that makes me extremely suspicious of Doc. I think my suspicion list is now 1. Jondesu 2. Doc 2. Polking And my trust list is 1. Aman 2. Clanky I'll try for an actual analysis later. Too busy right now with work. EDIT: Wait a second, kills happen BEFORE lynches, right? So, if Jondesu is actually an elim, why would the elims not kill someone voting for him, thus guaranteeing his safety? Dang, that makes me want to trust Jondesu, despite my suspicions. Hmm, need to think on that. I think that changes my suspicion list to: 1. Doc 1. Poking 2. Wonko? Because of Daniyah going after him so strongly? Of course, it could still be that Jondesu is an elim and the elims forgot that kills go before the lynch, which puts suspicion on Doc and Stick for backing up Jondesu with the votes on Mage... @Amanuensis - what are your thoughts about all this?
  18. Nyali
    So, the reason for that list is that I wanted to get it out there in case I was lynched today so people can make of it what they will. I don't mind dying, though losing two villagers tonight could be really bad (assuming the elims are active tonight). We're down 4 so far out of what, 12? 13? And there are likely 3 or 4 elims left. Losing two more villagers tonight puts us at 10/11 vs 4/3, which is only a couple mislynches from losing. And yes, if I was an elim, there would have been a kill last night. I'm not one to let that go to chance. I have only been an elim in a conversion game so far, so I can't point to past patterns. But that really isn't something I'd let slide. I've only missed submitting a single action in all of my time here, which was during the pokemon game.
  19. Nyali
    Oh, sorry! I missed the replacements. Let me fix the above... EDIT: Aman, you replaced Orlok, righit?
  20. Nyali
    To be clear, my suspicion list: 1. Third of the Storm (Jondesu) is proud of his heritage 2. Sean (polkinghornbd) is up for a Get Rich Quick scheme3. Sherlock (Magestar) can't understand why the planet is named "First from the Sun" 4. Doc (Doctor12) is criminally late to the party5. Svetao (Daniyah) is eerily cheerful6. Szeth-daughter-daughter-Neturo (Assassin in Burgundy) has a death wish6. Rumberry (Ecthellion III) has a hand glued to their face6. Dr. Bres Kalei (Wonko the sane) is abundantly proficient at doctoring papers6. Stick (I_Am_A_Stick) is resentful of gingers7. Clanky8. Aman9. Nyali (Nyali) will rest when she's dead Everyone in 6th place, I don't have a read on. I don't think everyone at the top of my list is an elim, to be clear. I think only one of Doc and Mage is an elim, for instance, but I'm leaning more toward Mage despite him changing his vote last cycle. EDIT: Is Clanky in this game? I don't see him on the player list. EDIT2: Forgot about the replacements - put them in to the list above.
  21. Nyali
    No, Doc is below you in my suspicion list.
  22. Nyali
    Okay, I looked back and crossreferenced the name of the character Wonko signed up with and his signup post. I went through all his posts, and honestly, I'm not seeing anything super suspicious. He seems to have been in the same state I was, barely able to give much attention to the game due to the holidays. Also, voting patterns support him being innocent, especially if we're right and Jondesu is a traitor. Why would Jondesu and Stink both use him to try to push the vote away from Stink? They could have used Dani or Assassin, but they went for Wonko instead. Unless I'm misinterpreting the vote order, trying to save one teammate by trying to start a train on another teammate seems unlikely. It could have been a gambit to make us trust Wonko more (which implicates Mage if true), but I don't think that's what's going on here.
  23. Nyali
    I just tried to go look at Wonko's posts to analyse them, and I can't find a user named "Wonko the Sane" so I'm assuming he's participating in this post-obfuscating Ookla thing. What name is he posting under? And when does this extremely frustrating "Ookla season" end?
  24. Nyali
    I really wish there was a general rule that stated "Don't change your forum name while in the middle of a game of SE" I really can't follow this game, between the number of players and people changing their forum names (along with their avatars in several cases) and not signing their posts. I'm going to give up trying to follow and just explore until I find something interesting and/or "ookla season" ends and people change their names back to the ones they signed up under.
  25. Nyali
    I will point out that Stink was second on my suspicion list, so my vote for him, while it did come late, wasn't out of nowhere. i still think Polking is guilty, but last cycle Jondesu moved up in my suspicion list, so I'm voting for him instead this turn. My top three for a while have been Stink, Jondesu, and Polking. Because of the holidays, I have not had enough time to really pay attention to SE, so I don't have much evidence to point toward. I'm mostly going off of impressions from quickly reading posts. I don't really have much to say about Wonko - I'd have to look back over his posts.
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