little wilson
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Everything posted by little wilson
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Why exactly is this? Assuming she targeted Ari with School Records and was redirected to Rand, that's completely irrelevant to Rand's assassination. Her entire case is built upon a false assumption that Law of Contraposition not only pulls all targeted actions but also that it is used by targeting an individual and pulling all actions targeting that person onto a different player rather than targeting the person making the action. Law of Contraposition only pulls a single action, unless it's used multiple times. It literally falls completely apart with that. EDIT: Joe Joe. This is partly gut and partly due to you not playing like village!Joe always does: you're not looking for people to trust. You're doing something else. There's also the vote on me. Sure, you apologized, but I think you had a better idea of when rollover was than you claimed, and anyway, you usually at least partly trust me when you're village, even if you don't want to. The fact that you don't right now when I am village makes me think something is wrong on your end. After all, the last time I was good and you were evil was LG8.
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Additionally, the Law of Contraposition only redirects a single targeted action. And I'm pretty sure that the way it works is that you say "I want to redirect Steph to Rand" rather than "I want to redirect an action targeting Ari to Rand." So all we can gather from this is that Steph was targeted by Law of Contraposition. Paranoid theory: Steph is a Skindancer who purchased an assassin last turn to go after Ari, but was targeted by Law of Contraposition and hit Rand instead. To cover her butt so the person who used LoC on her won't figure out that she purchased the assassin, she's claiming to have used another action instead. As I said, paranoid. But not impossible. I personally find it more likely that the Skindancers would go after Rand over Ari, though, so I'm not going to give this too much merit, but I figured I'd toss out the idea anyway. I'm going to withhold voting right now, but I'm eyeing Jon and/or Joe currently. Though Cluny is also an option, since he was super active and now he's gone mysteriously silent ever since he attracted a lot of attention and suspicion.
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Okay, Joe. I can see that. Doesn't make sense to me, because if you're not in the mews, you have a 0% chance of going insane. Even if you're an E'lir in an arcane field. Even if you're a Namer and you know 2 names. The mews points put you in the realm of insanity being a possibility, but you chose to be there, so it's not part of the the probability. The probability comes from the dice roll.
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I'm pretty sure that's not the way it works, Joe....
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How is it 16%? You'd only go insane if you rolled a 10. On a d10 dice, that's a 10% chance. So a 10% chance to go insane while staying in the mews, if you haven't studied in the arcane arts.
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I'm not sure we can assume that someone would've come forward, in the thread, to declare that they were studying in Naming, Physicking, Archives or much else that could block a Skindancer's actions. I can see the Skindancers wanting to get rid of any of those players. If someone did roleblock a Skindancer, I would suggest they tell a PM contact they trust because telling the thread would result in them being sabotaged soon. If they have enough money, go to Imre and get a Bloodless (they're cheaper than Bodyguards right now, which are 12 talents and won't go down unless a currently purchased Bodyguard is used up. If they don't....yeah. There aren't many abilities that can guarantee protection of other people, particularly since no one is a Master and won't be for at least a few more turns.
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Offensive actions happen before expulsion in the order of actions. It's also possible that someone who's been elevated in Archives got Fae Lore and targeted the Skindancers making the kill, blocking them. Or, if someone studied Physicking and used Medica Detainment, that would do it too. Or, as Orlok suggested, it was an Anker's cancellation. Damnation, Alv, you had to ninja me, didn't you? Though your suggestions are far more complete. Anyway. As for what I can add. Rand was certainly killed by an assassin. I'm in Imre again, and the last time I was here, assassins were 9 talents. They are now 18.5. Because of Rand's death, I asked the GMs how assassins are operating in this game. In LG18, they were on a turn (or was it cycle?) delay. This game, they are immediate (well, not immediate, but end of that turn immediate, like all other actions). So, someone purchased an assassin in Imre last turn and sent them after Rand. Likely a Skindancer, though the suspect pool of who isn't terribly narrow, since I think most players who are Yllish Commoners and above (and even some Cealdish) could've had 9 talents to spare.
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Sart Sart. I'm tempted place a vote on Drake, partly due to last turn and partly due to some of his comments this turn to Stink, but I'll hold off.
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So is there even a reason you voted on me then, Sart? Because to me, it looks pretty flimsy, attached to my assumption about Sympathy, and instead of just asking me about it with a mention, you tacked a vote on someone in a lower class who literally just went on the Horns. And now, even though I've explained the assumption and you accept it as valid, the vote remains. You want to make this a battle between Ruh and Cealdish? You're on.
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LG 18 and the fact that either no one invested in it the whole game, or very few did. I imagine that's why Orlok picked it: he remembered the lack of interest and knew he could make it work for him. The fact that he's been elevated twice indicates that he is indeed one of the only players, if not the only, going for that field. Sart.
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Oh, I agree. However, I can also see why some people might choose to risk insanity if it meant that not only all of their actions went through, but also that they were able to save faster. It's not something that I personally would do, but that's kind of the point of this game: risk and reward and doing what you feel is worth the risk, to you. Other players would probably not agree.
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Huh. So Wind doesn't. And using a single name a doesn't. I should've remembered that, but honestly, the Naming side of things wasn't (and isn't) my forte in this game. That's Aonar's domain. When it comes to the lodgings, just because someone can afford a better location doesn't mean they'll take it. There's a reason the insanity bonus on the mews was changed to two: a lot of people stayed there in LG 18, because it was cheap and made it easier to save their coins for tuition. In fact, by term 4, 80% of the players were staying at the mews. Most of them could easily have afforded a nicer place. But they just didn't. Anker's has a 10% chance of canceling your action, every action you do. It's very possible that a person would rather face a 10% chance of insanity than a 10% of having their action cancelled.
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You're forgetting something: a name was used. Using a Name gives an extra IP. We know Aonar didn't get elevated in Naming in the first elevation. What if PK did, used Wind, and had the very unlucky possibility of rolling a 10, which, coupled with the name he knows and the use of a name that turn, caused him to go insane? I don't think Hael was staying in the mews. More likely, he skipped this term to save up for next turn, and was staying in Anker's. I find it far more likely that Hael was the sabotage and PK went insane. I'm also tossing around the possibility that PK is a Skindancer. Also, about the lack of a 9th elevation, rather than it being Sart or PK's field, someone probably split their EP between two fields on the first turn. Place 4 in the one they really want, but just in case a lot of people are going for that field, place one elsewhere. Might've done the same thing in turn 2, but with a different field as the backup. If they were elevated in the one EP field last turn and the other field this turn, that would explain the lack of 9 elevations. Hazarding a guess at which field is the undesirable one, it was probably Sympathy. On the contrary, Burnt was a Skindancer in LG18, where they kind of focused on Vintish nobles at the start of the game because they were worried about that wealth, and they had no Vintish nobles. Yes, before Burnt's post, I thought the gram purchaser was highly likely to be evil. While the reasoning given wouldn't be convincing in most cases, Burnt.....is, I suppose, a special case, because paranoia is easily something that (often) drives her. Couple that with Drake's comment about rich people automatically looking at the richest item to buy, and I can actually see how a village Burnt could purchase a gram over the much cheaper bodyguard. Am I convinced of her villageness? No. But I'm leaning that way. Hence the vote removal.
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Um. Did you forget the part where I retracted from both?
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The apothecary doesn't tell you how many items are available. It just tells you what items are available and how much those items are. Or if an item is sold out. Based on LG18, though, I'd guess there was only a single gram to start out, and that the apothecary won't be stocked every turn but more likely every few turns. So if something sells out, it'll take a bit before it's back in stock. I would point out that Drake has done some fairly elim stuff, just not in relation to Steph. It's more in relation to Burnt and the discussion around the gram. If Burnt isn't a Skindancer, I'd look long and hard at Drake, because he probably is (yes, I'm aware he said the same thing about me). I find some of his comments last night to be....I don't know. I don't want to say inconsistent, because then he'll just say that Villagers are inconsistent, but perhaps odd and, to use the word Orlok used with Burnt, incongruous. Insert my comment about bodyguards also protecting from two sabotages.... I'm....not sure what changed his mind from "marginally suspicious" to the case now being "strong enough" to vote for her.... It seems to me that all of his reasoning above applies equally to both eliminator and villager. And he acknowledges that fact. It was after this that I mentioned that I'm pretty sure you can't purchase two bodyguard contracts at the same time. That point seems to be the salient point in his suspicion against Burnt: that a rich villager would've purchased two Bodyguards rather than a single gram. Less certain, but keeping the vote on. So he went from thinking it marginally suspicious and not voting, to having a strong case, and voting, to now being less certain, but keeping both votes on. Now enter Burnt, who said she purchased it for paranoia and to keep it out of the Skindancer's hands. I'm not really sure what my read on Burnt is as a whole, but I think this defense does merit something. Because it does make sense from a villager standpoint. This is Drake's response: So....he explains why it totally makes sense for a villager Vint to purchases a gram....which is just more to add onto his previous reasons for a villager to want a gram.... Now, at this point, I would expect him to retract at least one of his votes. But....he doesn't. Because "the gram purchase is odd enough".....why? You yourself, Drake, have explained it away thoroughly of why a rich villager would want a gram over a bodyguard. So what makes it odd? And then he adds this: The exact same thing can be said about you, Drake. And your reasoning about Burnt makes your continued votes on her even more unusual. Are you sure you're not trying to do what you're saying I might be trying to do? Moving on. That's actually a very good point. And I already stated that he seemed really certain of Steph's alignment. This speaks more about the knowledge Cluny has and his own alignment than it does about Steph. But he was playing the new player card last cycle and now he's suddenly coming down like he knows what's going on. That's...quite the shift. Based on Burnt's comments, I'm torn that her motives for buying the gram were actually evil. I also don't really view her comment about Imre as a threat. More just a "go ahead and expell me; it won't stop me being able to do things, because I'm rich and can buy everything." I can see how that can be taken as an eliminator troll, but the tone I'm getting from Burnt is more of a bored villager who's looking for other ways to keep herself entertained and she knows she's rich enough to do that. Because of that, Burnt Burnt. My votes will instead go on Drake and Cluny for the reasons stated above.
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I believe the same person cannot purchase two Assassins or two Bodyguards at the same time. They can purchase multiple throughout the game, but if you purchase one, you have to wait for the current contract to end before you can purchase a new one. Which would explain why one wouldn't purchase two Bodyguards and then place them on others. Also, I messed up the price of the Bodyguard. It's 7 talents right now. 7-8, it's all the same to the poor. Either way, I can't afford it, and it's still significantly cheaper than the gram.
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I'm not sure there's an announcement when people win Pipes, but, more to the point, that doesn't even matter. The earliest anyone could've tried for the Pipes is T1M2. The 10 talents the Pipes bring would come at the same time the stipend comes through, which is after you purchase things in Imre. Therefore, even if a non-Vint won the Pipes T1M2, they could not have purchased the gram. The only players who could purchase the gram in Term 1 at all are the Vints. Emphasis mine From the rules doc: So, uh, yeah. 2-shot protection from sabotage, for 7 talents less than the gram. Why exactly would a villager go for the gram over the Bodyguard, again? Denying it is literally the only she could've done, regardless of if it's true or not. If she's a Skindancer, she doesn't want everyone knowing she has a gram. She wants people to think Burnt does and split the suspicion on Burnt. If she's a student and she has a gram, she's also not likely to want everyone--Skindancers included--to know that she has a gram, because then they know she's protected from their attack and can direct their attention elsewhere, which makes her 15 talent purchase pointless. The same goes for Burnt. I fully expect Burnt to deny having a gram as well. My interest is in Cluny. He's really intent on not having Steph punished again. Is no one else curious why he's so adamant in Cycle 2 about someone? Actually....punished again. I've been thinking about this wrong. Steph was punished on T1M1 for Reckless Use and lashed, before it was even possible to obtain Nahlrout so she would've had the turn roleblock. Even if she'd placed an order to go to Imre, she couldn't have purchased a gram because she couldn't do anything that turn. She was recovering in Medica. Mage also couldn't have purchased the gram, because Imre actions happen before offensive, and the gram would've blocked the sabotage. Which leaves Burnt. And now that I think about it, Burnt didn't really seem terribly phased about her lashing. Perhaps that's because she'd purchased a bit of nahlrout to stop the effects so she could actually continue Skindancing on her way. And since I still don't see why a villager, even a rich one, would purchase a 15 talent gram for the 2-sabotage protection over an 8 talent Bodyguard that also has 2-sabotage protection, I think I'm going to be retracting from Steph (who couldn't have bought the gram) and voting for Burnt. Steph Steph. Burnt Burnt.
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I didn't mind if people voted on me for tuition reduction. Which you didn't care about.
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Nope, I was most definitely not the first vote on you T1M1. I voted on you because of this little thing right here: 13 minutes later: And your response: Really? Even things out when I'd stated that I was in the Golden Pony and therefore could take 2 votes without having any issues? And when I'd also specifically stated that my offering myself up was for those who wanted tuition reduction, which you didn't even care about. To me, it looks like you don't actually care who you're voting for. This is even more evident with your vote on me. Are you actually suspicious of me? You really think a Skindancer offered themselves up for the poorer students to get tuition reductions? Steph Steph. Guess what? I don't care about tuition reductions. I'm voting on you because I think you're a Skindancer. I'm also voting on you because I'm in Imre right now and I have it on very good authority that there was at least one gram in the apothecary last turn and now all of those grams are sold out. Since grams are 15 talents, that means that only a Vintish Noble could've purchased one on cycle 1. But Bodyguards right now are 8 Talents and they do about the same thing--except that Bodyguards also protect from theft. So why would a person purchase a gram over a Bodyguard, when the Bodyguards are almost half the price of the grams? Well, I can think of one very compelling reason: you can't pass a Bodyguard, but you can pass a gram. Who would really like a protection that you can pass between people as needed? The Skindancers. I believe that there is a Vintish Skindancer. And I believe it is you. I suppose it could be Burnt, but the way Cluny jumped to your defense rings more of someone who knows exactly what your alignment is and really doesn't want you expelled than someone who just truly, truly believes on cycle 2 that you must be a student.
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I agree with both? Particularly about Steph, but I mentioned I was suspicious of her last turn, and that's why I voted on her turn 1. My suspicion has not lessened.
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I should hope not, unless there's a mysterious 10th Master floating around.
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@Drake Marshall, Alv already said that he very likely won't be able to retract. He's at work, won't get off until right at rollover, and can't use electronic devices while working. Therefore, we have a choice: either we can all retract and hope that he gets on in time to retract as well or we can vote on others to spread out the vote more. If we all retract and he doesn't have time to retract, Burnt will almost certainly be expelled (even with the spread with DA and Aman), and even if she's not expelled, she'll likely end up with a three turn roleblock.
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Emphasis mine. This is exactly how I felt about Steph last cycle and why I voted on her even though she already had a vote. Also, just a couple additional comments. Each Master has 5 DP to use for the Horns each turn. Since there are 9 Masters, that's 45 DP involved in the secret vote (I saw someone throwing around 40 earlier, which wouldn't normally be so far off, but in this case, it kind of is, since even just a couple DP can change the probability of different things happening). A person who has a single complaint filed against them has just as much chance to get some of that 45 DP as a someone who has 20 complaints. The only difference is that the person with 20 complaints starts the secret vote with 10 DP already on them, so it's certain they're going on the Horns and will face possible expulsion. And while the votes on DA and Aman are great and all, adding more of them isn't going to decrease the chances that HH or Burnt gets punished through lashes or even expulsion. To that end, I will throw a vote on Mage, since the other Vintish either already have votes right now or went on the Horns last turn. Why Vintish? The Vintish are the best to deal with the 2 talent inflation in the event of going on the Horns, other than the Aturan nobles, who don't have the 33% tuition increase that the Vintish have. However, the Vintish are certainly at the Horse and Four in the first term, whereas the Aturans could be at either the Horse and Four or The Golden Pony. Voting on someone in the Golden Pony right now won't help those are certainly going in front of the Masters, so unless an Aturan who isn't in the Pony wants to volunteer as tribute, the Vinitsh are the best to spread the vote amongst. Or piling three votes on Aturans to counter the -1 DP of the Pony, but....that seems little extreme.
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Truer words were never spoken. In one cycle, they killed like 6 people. And that was after I saw that the RNG wanted them to kill a bunch so I waited another day and then rerolled. >>
