Seonid

Is it a bad thing that I am grinning maniacally at the reactions to my post? I may need help...

Hmm...another thread to follow. We fill these up way too quickly... My ship is definitely Guardian/Ranger (a canon one, even ). But I'm sure there are many available for nightmare fuel as well. Dark!Paladin/Koschei, anyone? They played sadistic whack-a-mole on their first date...

Thanks, Hero. I still disagree with your method, but your reasons for voting for him are good enough to satisfy me. I'll get around to voting later in the cycle, probably. There's just so much to consider about everyone's possible allegiances. I may post another large analysis at the end of the cycle, depending on if I can work something out.

We haven't lost the Coinshot yet, Unodus, so we can still affect the night cycle. It's the Seeker we've lost. As far as active players go, by my count we have 18 players left total. Of those, 4 are completely or nearly completely inactive - Macen, Jasnah, dom, and Newan (who comes on long enough to apologize for his inactivity - so he might be active eventually). 5 or 6 of the 14 remaining are likely Spiked, so they don't control the vote yet. It's getting down to the wire, but we're not out of the fight yet. Especially with a Coinshot.

I...don't know what to say. RIP Wilson. And Winter Cloud. There's not a lot of analysis I can squeeze out of that night. Wilson's been a high-profile target for a while now. I guess she finally lost the game of I Know You Know I Know with the Spiked. I don't know why Winter Cloud died. The write-up indicates the Village Coinshot, but I hadn't noticed any suspicion in the thread of her. Was there any in any of the PM's? Oh, and it also looks like Wilson was the Lurcher she claimed to be in contact with. That stinks that we're down that role. I don't have a high hope that we have another one. But I doubt that there's a lot of fruit down that line of reasoning. I think that all I've got right now is to formalize my worries from last night. Hero, you have been doing a lot of accusations without posting your reasons lately. You claim that it is so that the Spiked don't know what charges to defend themselves from, but the fact of the matter is that we learn more from the defense than we do from baseless accusations. Either make your suspicions public, or my vote stays on you this cycle.

We are not especially running this as a party-type game, so balance of roles really isn't an issue. I'd say to go for whatever character type you most want to play.

Alright. I'm going to try and get back in the swing of the Edassan business. (Sanderson Elimination is very fun, but it takes so much time) Here is a list of the things I still have to get for people, ranked by how pressing the need is for them to be finished: - Spell Books for Voidus and Mailliw - Get Quiver the information on his character's religion - More Svalding details for Breathtaker (including ideas for enchantments) - Post maps of Menkor and the nearby area - Post world maps - Create new worldbuilding thread (in the Creator's Corner) with most of the background/cosmology/how does magic work info. Update the OP to be more focused on the RP threads. - Write a short story in Edassa for January's prompt (I realize that it's not RP stuff, but it is Edassa stuff. If anyone's curious, I have posted a story involving a Tribunal winter festival here. I just wanted to place this here so that I could check them off publicly (It's a motivational help for me). After I finish these, I'll post an RP response to Shuster (Unodus) and Samuel (Voidus). If it's OK with both of you, I'm going to retcon that Samuel got in through the northern postern gate (which was only lightly guarded), and that the two squires who went with Shuster barricaded the door behind them before following him. I'll have one of their viewpoints, as well as one from the courtyard. I'll probably split it up into a three-parter, and include a part with Bran and the king, too.

Sorry about not posting again last cycle. I had enough time to get back on and catch up with the thread, but I had some unexpected things come up at work, so I couldn't post on my lunch break like I had intended to. My first thoughts are that we need to stop lynching villagers. Unfortunately, that's easier said then done. My second thoughts are that I'm not satisfied with Hero's consistent voting for undisclosed reasons. If I'd been able to post before the cycle ended, I might have put a vote on him for it. So, Hero. You've said before that you do not share your reasoning with us because you don't want the Spiked to know where to defend themselves. You seem to be forgetting that it is precisely in their defense that we can find them. If the rest of us don't know your charges, we can't catch them in their lies. And, this is assuming that Peng is spiked, which is far from clear (at least to me). Finally, and on a separate tangent, Unodus, your vote wasn't Soothed. You didn't put Wilson's name in red, so it didn't get counted as an official vote. Hero actually commented to that effect in the post immediately after yours.

Thanks, Wilson. That means a lot coming from such an experienced player. I'm still formulating who I want to vote for right now, so I might not post that until later in the cycle (like tomorrow...)

There is something rotten in Tyrian Falls. Now seems like a good time to break out some good old Brandon Sanderson swearing. This is a storming, Colors-cursed situation. (Sorry, I'm not especially creative in that area.) So, we're down a Seeker and our Mistborn. And Ostrich was innocent. How do they know to target these people? Are people just being careless with role reveals in PMs? Or are the Spiked just getting lucky? I'm not even sure how to process this. But I'll try. Since other people have been analyzing the vote shenanigans from the last Day Cycle, and since I don't have anything new to add to that discussion, I will take a brief analysis of the night kills. The Coinshot kill seems obvious - our Villager (likely the same one who targeted Rent last Day cycle) taking the most suspicious target. I won't spend any more time on that. It's Eol's death that concerns me. I have two thoughts. One, if he carelessly (or even carefully, but wrongly - as it turns out) revealed his role in PM with someone that was Spiked (or who revealed it, in turn, to a Spiked). That's the easy explanation for his death, but I wasn't in any PM's where his role was bandied about, and I don't feel comfortable making assumptions without evidence. If anybody was in a PM where that happened, I think that that is extremely important and pertinent information. In the absence of such information, though, I will examine the possibility that Eol wasn't targeted because he was a Mistborn, and that his role was a lucky break for the Spiked. With Eol's innocence proven, it seems clear that the rampant suspicion of him in-thread was at the least aided and abetted by the Spiked. He was a candidate for lynch death through much of the first cycle and again during the second cycle (when he was saved by vote manipulation). That manipulation now certainly seems like an attempt to cast suspicion on him by the Spiked (and maybe Wyrm as well - see my analysis post). It is possible (especially without any evidence of a role reveal) that the Spiked were just getting rid of him because we didn't fall into the trap of lynching him for them. In this scenario, he was a tool that had outlived its usefulness. In fact, it looks like (according to the thread, at least, I don't know what all y'all have been talking about in PM's) the Village was coming to trust him, which could conceivably make him a dangerous figure to the Spiked. Now, maybe my inexperience is showing through in this analysis, so feel free to correct me (or to offer more information that would require that I revise my analysis). Especially if there is evidence of a role reveal in one of the PM's. That, of course, would change the analysis quite a bit. [EDIT]: Color!

If the Rioters didn't vote, then we would see them stay in the "No Vote" category. [EDIT:] I'm really off for good this time!

Welcome back, Tulir!! Glad your schedule stabilized, and congrats on those Epics! They look amazing!

Sounds good BreathTaker. I'll look through the backstory in more detail too, but it looks good to me. I'm off until Monday, though, so I'll see y'all then. And Joe, I hope that you have gotten your homework under control! Welcome back!!

Wow...so a lot of people got messed with today... Wyrm's vote went from Mail to nothing. Hero's vote went from Ostrich to Mail. Sarcomere's vote went from Ostrich to Hero. Couple of possibilities here. This could either have been the work of two Emotional Allomancers or three. Scenario 1 - Wyrm Rioted somebody's vote. [This requires Wyrm to be a Mistborn, as he already had Pewter earlier] Somebody else Rioted the other vote. Because of Wyrm Rioting, his vote wasn't counted and went to the 'no' pile. Scenario 2 - Wyrm was Soothed. Hero and Sarcomere were Rioted. There were 3 Rioters/Soothers/Mistborn interfering tonight. Now, of course, there could have been even more Rioters/Soothers/Mistborn working last night, but some hit Smoked targets, but I really don't think that a scenario involving more than 3 is plausible. Just based on probable role distributions. (Now, I guess Meta could be trolling us, and have everybody be a Rioter/Soother, but in the absence of proof to the contrary, I'm going to go with the simpler explanation.) Now, Occam's Razor would suggest Scenario 1, except that it would be a stupid thing for Wyrm to do. If he were a Rioter, he wouldn't have voted for someone knowing that his vote would drop off visibly, and we could catch him in the act. So, I think I'm going to suspect option 2 for now. [EDIT] - Hero, you missed that Wyrm's vote was cancelled... [EDIT2] - I'm going to be off until Monday morning (my time) which is after the end of the cycle. Good luck, and hope you all make it through the night!

Beautiful pictures, Kobold! Now we just need her to do Nighthound... Or Paladin. That would make me feel much better. Definitely Paladin...

Just wanted to point out something. If Wilson has been contacted by a Village Coinshot who mistakenly shot Ren, that means that the evidence for a Spiked Mistborn becomes more shaky. I don't want to say there isn't (because ruling something like that out would be most unwise, and possibly fatal...), but it's no longer a cut and dry case. Also, I'd like to vote as well right now. So confusing. (And so few votes...this isn't a good sign guys.) I'm going to try something new (at least for me). I'm going to put a vote on Hero because I do find the lack of reasons for his suspicion of Ostrich questionable at best. This should (by my count) bring up the count of votes on Hero to 2 and on Ostrich to 3. My reasoning for this is that they are now close enough for significant voting shenanigans to be pulled. Both of them are suspicious to us right now, so lynching either will give valuable information. And, if votes are messed with by emotional Allomancers, this also gives us more information. (I hope that my thoughts on this matter are clear. If not, feel free to ask for clarification.) EDIT: Ninja'd by Sarcomere. The vote tally should stand at 2 for Hero and 4 for Ostrich now.

Well, I said I'd take it off, so I will. Wyrm. I'm still not sure about you, but that's a reasonable explanation for that incident.

Winter Cloud, thanks for the time you spent here. We enjoyed having you, and hope to see you back sometime. I'll write up a closing post for your character (get her injured and put her in a recovery place for if you come back or someone else wants her), if that's alright. Voidus, the magic was definitely in-bounds. That was a very Inquisitor-y thing to do. And the post was excellent. I really like the character you've got there. Question though (I'm assuming that the squires that came in the tower with Shuster blocked the doors behind them, I'll have to go back and read the passage again), how did Samuel get in through the outer walls of the prison. Through one of the postern gates?

Oh good, people are back and commenting. I thought for a while that my analysis had killed discussion rather than fostering it. I read through Wilson's mega-post, and that helped me crystallize suspicions a little. I think that I'm going to go out on a limb here and vote Wyrm. I base my reasoning on Wilson's analysis, especially the lie about the message times. If Wyrm can give an adequate response to that, I'll remove my vote (but not all of my suspicions).

Happy Birthday Twi! And congrats on getting Firefight. And Kobold, you now know the given name of another RP'er. Mine's Samuel. (You'll probably see it eventually on an anthology of Edassan short stories too... )

Ok, I now finally have time to post a longer analysis. On the other hand, an awful lot more has happened since I last posted. Pretty much none of it has been good for us (except for Wilson giving long summary posts. Having the information organized like that is quite helpful). Losing Araris and Ren both is a blow, both in terms of experience and in terms of roles. This double kill indicates one of two things. Either the Spiked have a Mistborn/Coinshot (but, like Wyrm, I find the idea that they would have the Coinshot refrain from killing to be ludicrous - therefore, I think that the Mistborn idea is most likely), or one of the Villagers targeted Ren. I don't know why they would have done that...as in I can honestly not think of a single reason for a non-Spiked Mistborn or Coinshot to target Ren. Not at all. So the Spiked Mistborn may well be a thing. (If you are a Villager, and you did target Ren for reasons that none of us can fathom, please let somebody you trust know. Don't post it in the thread - but do let somebody you are sure of know. They can give us the information while concealing your name and role. I guess this comes down to - don't endanger yourself, but the Village needs this information.) After looking at Wilson's excellent initial analysis of Day 1 stuff, I'd also like to take a look at the close of Day 2. I do not mean this to distract from Wilson's excellent analysis; hopefully it will complement it. So far, the two most disturbing incidents we have had have been the whole tangled mess with Eol, culminating in the lynch on Satrams, and the vote manipulation that moved the lynch from Eol to Wyrm. Since Wilson is taking the first, I'll examine the second. So, known information is that Araris' vote went from Eol to nothing. Since he was not a Rioter, this indicates that he must have been Soothed. (Before his death, however, which revealed his role, I noticed several people saying he couldn't have been a Rioter because nobody else's vote moved. This is not the case, however. What we saw would also have been fully consistent with a Rioter who targeted somebody who was Smoked. Again, his death and the role reveal negate that possibility, but we must keep it in mind for future voting analyses.) Instead of lynching Eol, that vote Soothed turned the lynch to Wyrm instead. This leaves us the all-important question "Why?" I can see several possible situations. 1 - Eol is a Spiked, and this was a last, desperate ploy to save him. This doesn't seem likely, as that would be a dead giveaway. Then again, suspicion seems to have moved off of Eol anyways, so a ploy like this might have worked. I still think it to be the least likely of options. 1a - A variation on this is that Eol is a Spiked, but that this wasn't about saving him, but was about making us waste our time trying to lynch him again this current day cycle. In this case, he probably would have been Lurched last night to help protect against Coinshots. Us not suspecting him as much anymore is, under this situation, gravy on the top for the Eliminators. This is a more likely scenario than 1, but I still think that this isn't a likely one. The Eol situation reeks of misdirection to me. I suspect one of the following 2 scenarios. 2 - Neither Eol or Wyrm is Spiked, but the Spiked are playing this to keep our suspicions on Eol and away from others. They saved him to try to waste our time lynching him again, giving them critical time to hit our most important players, and moved the vote to Wyrm to try to eliminate him without implicating themselves. With all of the suspicion going on between Wyrm and Wilson, if Wyrm had died and been shown innocent, suspicion might have fallen on Wilson (who I am pretty sure is good), thus turning the Village against an important asset. I think that this is the most likely scenario. 3 - Eol isn't Spiked, but Wyrm is. This whole scenario was manipulated by the Spiked as a ploy to get us to trust Wyrm, as the target of the manipulated lynch. Since he is a Thug, the Spiked would know his role and that the Lynch wouldn't kill him. (This could also be combined with the whole Eol as a way to waste our time trying to lynch him.) Another slight variant on this scenario would be if Wyrm was the Spiked Mistborn, thus meaning that the Pewter was effective only for that night. In this variant, we would now think we knew both Wyrm's role and alignment, but be mistaken about both. As I said, I think that scenario 2 is the most likely, but we can't afford to discount 1 or 3. I think that we need more discussion in order to decide between them. Also, if anyone sees a possible way to reconcile the information that I haven't covered, let me know. If I didn't get all of the scenarios, we need to put any I missed out there too.

I don't have time to really respond right now, but I think that I have things to add to the discussion (although I might be overestimating my ability to contribute). I'll write up my thoughts in the morning, but I wanted to respond to the call out (which I think was at least partially directed at me).

Yep, I missed that one. Sorry Voidus! The sorcerers are in the Tower itself. All Inquisition agents (but not necessarily all Inquisition-aligned soldiers) have a tattoo of the black cross on the inside of their upper arm. That serves as a permanent identity marker (and the size/quantity of the serifs at the end of the cross lines indicate the rank of the agent). However, the inside of the upper arm is hard to show off in random conversation, so there is also a secret handshake (actually, several) to identify agents working undercover.

I'm at work (just at the end of break) right now, so I don't have a lot of time to read everything and analyze it all. Nothing immediately jumps out at me enough to say "Change your vote!" I won't have another chance to be on until after the cycle change, so I'm going to leave my poke vote on Macen for now, just because I don't have anywhere better to put it. I hope I can be reasonably confident that we won't lynch him while I'm gone.

So...I totally spent last night reading Order of the Stick instead of planning my lesson for today. That's going to suck... But it also meant that I didn't actually get the substantive comment out that I promised. Sorry about that. And it looks like I won't be able to do much of that today, either. I'll try to get something out during my lunch break (in about 9 hours), but I can't promise anything... Hopefully tomorrow is better.