Mid-Range Game 41 / Anonymous Game 8: Lord of Chaos

[Emerald Falcon]

Apologies for my absence last cycle - even in quarantine, IRL life still finds a way of being hectic.

OK, so Tuatara claimed as Lanfear, which I think makes them unlikely to be Lews - there's too many ways that could go wrong (a counterclaim, or a female channeler discovering that Lanfear isn't a female channeler). Also, if I had to guess, I think Lews is alone, or at least, I'm only looking for Lews, not any of his colleagues. My other wild speculation, based on the effects of the lynch, is that Lews has some natural immunity or self-protection abilities which can only be overcome by the effects of the lynch, so we'd effectively had to both lynch and then try to kill them (although Balefire might also bypass his protection, who knows) - by the fact that Mouse was lynched and then balefired, it's possible someone else came to the same conclusion.

Anyway, the remaining candidates are Hyena, Scorpion, Penguin, and Swan.

Hyena - I'm leaning village on Hyena. They've spent at least 2 actions sending me and Scorpion PM's, which strikes me as a very unusual thing to do as an Eliminator. Even though as Dragonfly mentioned, Lews could easily have multiple actions, so they could still send in a kill, I feel like Lews wouldn't want to send out PM's for fear of risking their chance of being caught out - they claimed to me - if I'd said "Hey, that's unusual, I'm also [claimed role]", they'd have been stuck. But, they also chose to claim just to me, instead of to the thread, which is the safer choice, and for all I know, could have told Scorpion they were my role, or the other way round, thereby minimising risk further. For that reason, I'd be interested in finding a way to crosscheck with Scorpion whether we were both claimed the same role by Hyena. (The easiest way would be Hyena simply claiming, but if he doesn't want to do that we can find a work around.) Pending that being successful, I don't think they're the most likely candidate for Lews. Chance of being Lews: 20%

Scorpion - Claimed Asmodean. It's possible a gutsy Lews could decide based on the timeline and the claimed wincons of the village that Asmodean was likely to be a player (Asmodean briefly worked with Lews in the books, so would therefore be unlikely to be a villager working to kill him, so safe to claim). This post struck me as very villagery, though, for what it's worth. And Hyena vouches for them. So, all in all, possible, but I don't find it likely at this stage. Chance of being Lews: 15%

Swan - I looked back at the reasons Swan was lynched Cycle Three, and these were the reasons - 'Instinct', 'Self-preservation' (why people are casting self-preservation votes when the lynch doesn't kill, I don't know, but that's beside the point), and 'I trust Dragonfly' (who cast the Instinct vote). So... yeah, clearly that's a rock-solid case against Swan and we should all Balefire them tonight. Joking aside, I don't have any particularly strong reading on Swan, one way or the other. They've claimed M'Hael, which... yeah, sends me on a similar pattern of thought to Scorpion claiming Asmodean, since M'Hael is a less likely Forsaken to exist based on the guessed upon timeline. Chance of being Lews: 30%

Penguin - Hasn't spoken much, but then, neither have I. Much of what they have posted has been early, with a focus on lore, and they've claimed an unnamed Forsaken role. To me, I think that feels like the safe move, to blend in with the crowd without the risk of being called out, so I'm hesitantly placing them as the most likely candidate to be Lews. Chance of being Lews: 35%

[Chartreuse Penguin]

3 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Penguin - Hasn't spoken much, but then, neither have I. Much of what they have posted has been early, with a focus on lore, and they've claimed an unnamed Forsaken role. To me, I think that feels like the safe move, to blend in with the crowd without the risk of being called out, so I'm hesitantly placing them as the most likely candidate to be Lews. Chance of being Lews: 35%

Part of the reason I've been somewhat vague is because I thought I'd be a target.  Female channelers are a decent threat to Lews since we are the only ones who can facilitate linking.  I'm assuming the male channelers have better chances individually of being able to target Lews, but linking can help augment that.

I was also mildly concerned that other forsaken MAY have had killing me as a wincon...I'm not exactly a popular character.

That said, not much use in me hiding in my web any longer.  I am Moghedien.  I would greatly appreciate not being lynched today.

[Charcoal Hyena]

Penguin, this is odd. If I believe you, then I would be confirming my worst fears.

I am Sammael. Now is as good a time to reveal it. Now that I've revealed, I have a claim for all of the remaining characters... but none of them are Lews.

With Shaidar Haran and M'Hael, there are enough Forsaken to fill the entire player list. Fill it, meaning no Lews. Which means Fifth has just pitted us against ourselves to see who will be the last one standing.

Now, M'Hael (Coral Swan) is the most tenuous of these claims. They have had low activity, and I don't trust them. However, I don't trust Penguin either. For now, I'm going to cling to this hope that the Dragon is out there for me to kill, and I'm not part of a deathmatch orchestrated by Fifth.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

What did Falcon claim to you?

[Chartreuse Penguin]

1 minute ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

What did Falcon claim to you?

I'm guessing Demandred? (sorry for the double post)

Edited April 22, 2020 by Chartreuse Penguin

[Fifth Scholar]

Apologies for the late notice, but this cycle will be extended by 24 hours to accommodate my schedule, which is currently too busy to carve the time out for rollover tonight. The cycle will now end on Thursday 23 April at 9 PM EDT. On the plus side, this will allow some of you to post, vote and send in orders, some of which I still do not have.

@Amethyst Scorpion @Coral Swan @Chartreuse Penguin @Charcoal Hyena @Emerald Falcon @Cream Tuatara 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

I'd be really surprised if Lews isn't in the game considering how many people seem to have him as their win con. If there was less confusion about win cons earlier in the game then I'd be more prone to believe that but with the win cons that are compatible but not identical I'd be surprised.

2 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Part of the reason I've been somewhat vague is because I thought I'd be a target.  Female channelers are a decent threat to Lews since we are the only ones who can facilitate linking.  I'm assuming the male channelers have better chances individually of being able to target Lews, but linking can help augment that.

I was also mildly concerned that other forsaken MAY have had killing me as a wincon...I'm not exactly a popular character.

That said, not much use in me hiding in my web any longer.  I am Moghedien.  I would greatly appreciate not being lynched today.

This looks like a coverup. Your actions up until now HAVE been really suspicious, Hyena laid it out in our PM. You've been extraordinarily quiet and laid low a lot. Chartreuese Penguin

[Chartreuse Penguin]

15 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Hyena laid it out in our PM.

This is incredibly vague.  If it's just being quiet and laying low a lot, I'm sure that's why I'm actually still alive.  I'm not sure why you think Moghedien would not be in this game. 

[Amethyst Scorpion]

2 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

This is incredibly vague.  If it's just being quiet and laying low a lot, I'm sure that's why I'm actually still alive.  I'm not sure why you think Moghedien would not be in this game. 

Yeah, it's being quiet and laying low mostly. But if you think that is why you're still alive then what about the other players still alive? Hyena Falcon and I have all been pretty consistently active and we are still alive. And whatever posts you did post were vague and about the lore which is all NAI. AND you have only voted once. That all points to someone trying to stay under the radar.

Plus not claiming until this cycle is suspicious too. If you were lews then claiming a role that you didn't have early in the game would have been way more highly likely to claim a role someone else had. But waiting until now gives you a better chance of claiming someone that nobody else can counterclaim.

[Cream Tuatara]

I feel like this game has turned into a PM game at this point, and it is making any and all analysis really difficult since all I have to work with right now is stuff posted in the earlier cycles. Using the limited information I do have, I'm going to vote on Charcoal Hyena.

 

[Chartreuse Penguin]

4 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

But if you think that is why you're still alive then what about the other players still alive? Hyena Falcon and I have all been pretty consistently active and we are still alive.

Again, you are claiming male channelers...not nearly as large a threat since you can't link.  The least likely claims to be true in this game are M'Hael and Asmodean.

[Fifth Scholar]

Cycle closed! Writeup to follow in a bit. 

[Fifth Scholar]

Moghedien, despite her fear and cowardice, smiled as she walked up to Moridin’s corpse. At last, to be free of that wretched man’s control. Stooping, she took her cour’souvra from his breast pocket, and tucked it inside her own, feeling dizzyingly lightheaded with joy. She would examine it later, and figure out how to undo its weaves so that it would no longer pose a threat, but she was free. No longer would she feel the cold touch of his hand on his pocket as a reminder of her failure. No longer could a chance accident strip her of her sanity and will. The time of terror was over. 

But the time for caution was not. Moghedien heard bickering voices coming closer. It appeared, from their sounds, that they were discussing that infernal nuisance Lews Therin; he had evaded their capture for too long now, it was true, and few Chosen remained to stand against him. She felt a sharp stab of annoyance as the discussion seemed to accuse her, though. Hadn’t she been put through enough? Had her meager position in the Great Lord’s eyes really made them believe she could be sheltering a sworn foe? She had maintained more loyalty to him than many of the Chosen might have in her captivity. Yet it seemed that was all forgotten in the desperation of the attempt to kill the Dragon. Well, perhaps it would help for them to remember why she survived when they did not. Escape was in order.

Though gateways out of Amadicia would immediately alert the Chosen, something closer by would do the trick for a moment. Once she was out of immediate reach, she could journey more conventionally before Travelling again out of the Dragon’s reach. Amadicia was enough of a killing ground. Visualising the street corner in Amador which she had learned for just such a purpose, Moghedien wove saidar, creating a small gateway for herself. As she stepped through, several things happened. 

The shouts behind her grew louder and suddenly intensified; the other Chosen had found her. With yells of anger they wove fire, which Moghedien ducked, though she heard screams behind her—perhaps she was not alone. She pivoted as she closed the gateway, stray weaves flickering through, and found herself looking into the steely cold eyes of a white-cloaked man whose sword was already in motion, two of his fellows looking on in grim approval. No weave was fast enough to stop the man’s blow from severing her head. 

---

Chartreuse Penguin was lynched! 

Penguin (2): Falcon, Scorpion

Hyena (1): Tuatara

Chartreuse Penguin was killed! She was Moghedien the Forsaken! 

Please remember to get your orders in before rollover, and continue posting in-thread. Two cycles without posting will kill you. 

Good luck! 

[Player List]

Amber Vulture Semirhage
Amethyst Scorpion
Azure Mouse Graendal
Charcoal Hyena
Chartreuse Penguin Moghedien
Coral Swan
Cream Tuatara
Emerald Falcon
Fuchsia Ostrich Mesaana
Indigo Weasel Aran’gar
Ivory Dragonfly Moridin
Magenta Albatross Rahvin
Mauve Crocodile Shaidar Haran
Melon Dingo Osan’gar

[Amethyst Scorpion]

I was so incredibly sure that Penguin would be Lews. Heck. Alright well I won't dwell on it, I'll move on and try to find them.

Five players left, and five forsaken left as well I believe if my google search was accurate.

Me - Asmodean. 

Hyena - Sammael. I trust them, even if maybe I shouldn't. They've been PMing me since cycle two and may have been pocketing me, but I do get a village vibe from them and our interactions. They claimed to me quite early, almost as soon as they PMed me. I know I can't use the fact that they PMed me as evidence because of Lews probably getting more than one action. I can't trust them completely, but I am willing to trust them enough to bet the game on them.

Tuatara - Lanfear/Cyndane. Looking at their activity isn't encouraging, they haven't been posting too much which could definitely be laying low. However they also claim to have a low knowledge of the WoT books and that is quite believable from what I've seen. Especially from when they claimed. And if they don't know too much about the books then it would be more difficult to guess which Forsaken isn't in the game to claim. Especially considering how early in the game they claimed. And it would have been even ballsier to claim a female forsaken. Overall I'm not suspicious of them. @Cream Tuatara Why did you vote on Hyena last cycle?

Swan - M'Hael/Mazrim Taim. They've been laying low and not posting very much. They posted right at the beginning of last cycle and then not again for the rest of it.

Falcom - Be'lal or Demandred? I think that they're one of the two? It looks like they're the two options left for them and I don't remember them claiming one or the other. They're both male though. @Emerald Falcon Could you shed some light on this?

Right now I want to believe it's one of either Swan or Falcon. Swan for their posting tendencies and Falcon for the weird forsaken thing they've got going on. Plus they're both male forsaken which is probably more likely for Lews to have claimed.

[Emerald Falcon]

10 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Hyena - Sammael. I trust them, even if maybe I shouldn't. They've been PMing me since cycle two and may have been pocketing me, but I do get a village vibe from them and our interactions.

...Huh. This is something I should probably have checked before now - are you sure it was the start of Cycle 2 that he PM'ed you from? Because Cycle 2 is when he first PM'ed me as well, meaning he must have submitted two actions that cycle. @Charcoal Hyena, do you have an explanation for that?

And yeah, very little point in hiding it at this stage - I'm Demandred.

[Charcoal Hyena]

To clarify the PM situation:

Cycle 1: Created a PM with Falcon. However, PMs don't come into effect until the beginning of the next cycle (Cycle 2).

Cycle 2: Prompted by an action from Scorpion, I created a PM with Scorpion. @Amethyst Scorpion, if you look back, you should have started getting PMs from me in Cycle 3.

I'm frustrated that Penguin wasn't Lews, because I'm starting to doubt everything more and more. I firmly believe that Scorpion and Falcon are not Lews, at least. Swan/M'Hael is the most suspicious so far, and fits the low activity category that I've been suspicious of.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

1 hour ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Cycle 2: Prompted by an action from Scorpion, I created a PM with Scorpion. @Amethyst Scorpion, if you look back, you should have started getting PMs from me in Cycle 3.

Yeah, I was thinking in terms of when you took the action to PM me. You took that action in cycle two, and the PM started at the beginning of cycle three.

[Emerald Falcon]

18 hours ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

To clarify the PM situation:

Cycle 1: Created a PM with Falcon. However, PMs don't come into effect until the beginning of the next cycle (Cycle 2).

Cycle 2: Prompted by an action from Scorpion, I created a PM with Scorpion. @Amethyst Scorpion, if you look back, you should have started getting PMs from me in Cycle 3.

Ah, right, that makes sense.

In that case, Coral Swan is the most likely candidate, mainly through process of elimination (though paranoia is making me wary of both Scorpion and Hyena). If the game doesn't end this cycle, I'll have to rethink everything in the game up to this point.

[Coral Swan]

I fear I have made a grave mistake by going inactive...

There are five players left. I'm not clever enough to figure out who's trustworthy and who's not... not now. Hopefully it won't matter, even if I do die.

[Cream Tuatara]

I had gotten an odd vibe from all of thier early on posts, and unfortunatley there has not been too much else to go off of. This game has really decreased in activity as PM's have began opening up. I didn't really know what to make of their abrupt accusation of Amethyst Scorpion, especially so early on in the game. Again it could have been confidence still lingering from a belief that they were the main village faction. 

Amethyst has been consistently active, and from what I can recall they claimed forsaken early on. The consistency leads me to tentatively trust them.

Coral Swan might be a bit too far into the inactivity spectrum for me to believe they're Lews. Especially since they have been pretty inactive the whole game.

I'm running out of time, so Emerald Falcon Your playstyle has been throwing me for a bit of a loop this game. You are active nought that I know you are here, but you seem to have been staying under my radar pretty well. So this cycle my vote will be on you.

[Fifth Scholar]

Cycle closed!

[Fifth Scholar]

The men who claimed to be Asmodean, Sammael and Demandred looked at each other uncomfortably across the low Amadician plain. Two more smoking corpses lay at their feet. Two more Chosen dead, bringing the total almost incalculably high. The newest, the upstart Taim, none felt pity for; despite his skill, he thought altogether too much of himself. But Lanfear...she was perhaps the oldest of them all, and had been closest of them to Lews Therin. That she had fallen was an ill sign, as if the deaths of over half the other Chosen did not serve as poor tidings. 

Yet they three lived, survivors of the fires which had consumed so many of their colleagues. And as they stood, each knew with a look of grim determination that it would be perhaps only one man, if any, who walked away from Amadicia alive. And each was determined to be that one—or else die in the attempt.

---

Coral Swan was lynched!

Swan (2): Hyena, Falcon

Falcon (1): Tuatara

Coral Swan was killed! He was M’Hael the Forsaken! 

Cream Tuatara was killed! She was Lanfear the Forsaken! 

Cycle 8 has begun! It will end in about 47.5 hours, on Monday 27 April at 9 PM EDT. 

Please remember to get your orders in before rollover, and continue posting in-thread. Two cycles without posting will kill you. 

Good luck! 

[Player List]

Amber Vulture Semirhage
Amethyst Scorpion
Azure Mouse Graendal
Charcoal Hyena
Chartreuse Penguin Moghedien
Coral Swan M’Hael
Cream Tuatara Lanfear
Emerald Falcon
Fuchsia Ostrich Mesaana
Indigo Weasel Aran’gar
Ivory Dragonfly Moridin
Magenta Albatross Rahvin
Mauve Crocodile Shaidar Haran
Melon Dingo Osan’gar

[Charcoal Hyena]

FIFTH! You dirty cremling...

I was right. This is a deathmatch you locked us all in for your sick amusement. Well then, my fellow Forsaken, I surely hope my corpse is not the first to fall.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Alright, when you get down to brass tacks I'm convinced that Emerald Falcon is Lews. I think all three of us have been really good players, but I think that Falcon not claiming until recently clinched it for me.

[Emerald Falcon]

Demandred slowly took a sip of his wine. "That would be a valid point, my friend. Except I did, in fact, reveal my identity on the second day to Hyena. Additionally, if I were Lews, how could I have known that the real Demandred wasn't out there somewhere, destined to ruin my chances once he died or revealed himself? There is no possibility I could have taken such a risk as Lews."

He paused for a moment, watching the other two, trying to gauge any kind of reaction from either of them.

"By contrast, Scorpion, you claimed to be the former Forsaken Asmodean. Which, if you were Lews Therin, would be ideal Forsaken to pick - the Betrayer, who Lews Therin was so close to. Of all the Forsaken, he would be the least likely to be among our number here. He was the one who turned his back on our lord. He was the one who Lews Therin knew best. And unlike all others here, he is extremely unlikely to want to kill Lews Therin."

"You accuse me for not following the pack. I confess it. I am many things, but I have no interest in being ordinary. But you, you have a far more serious crime. You tried to blend in, to seem like just another name among many. So no-one would notice you among the crowd. So no-one would snoop too closely, and see what secrets you had hidden away. And, you have very nearly succeeded."

"But I noticed you, Lews Therin. And I will avenge my fallen comrades, and triumph in the Dark One's glory over your dead corpse."

Seriously, I had way too much fun writing this. It's so much fun being a bad guy.