What is the element? *Spoilers*

[Munin he/him]

^ why though?

It's probably not Lerasium for the reasons stated earlier. If someone hadn't read Mistborn, suddenly bringing in someone who could do eighteen things you'd never heard of and no one else could duplicate would seem extremely random.

It works in Mistborn because it's a very integral part to the plot. However, a gram of Preservation's body doesn't mean much of anything on Roshar.

My splinter theory is mainly because it's one of the few "elements" I can think of that's important and relevant to the plot.

[jacobfake]

but in WoK it's barely even mentioned, and it's definitely not given more attention than stuff like "3 of 16 ruled" or the mention of Sel and Ati and Skai etc. There are plenty of things that don't really make sense without general knowledge of the Cosmere, it's just that none of them are given any significant amount of attention so that it'll be easy for an unfamiliar reader to read the book without noticing them, especially since all the people who are ever even going to be doing this line by line analysis probably have already read the other books.

And as long as Hoid swallowed the Lerasium, which is pretty much what any argument that that's what it is entails, there wouldn't ever be a Surgebinder v Allomancer fight, since Brandon's already said that Hoid has tons of power of his own, and although I don't have the link to that thread (I'm pretty sure it was on timewasters) handy, his constant planet hopping and extensive knowledge evidence this plenty. The only way we would actually see it in the story line would be in the same way he uses the fire to tell that story to Kaladin. I've read some people speculating this is the same magic system from an unpublished book, though I don't remember off hand whether it was Liar or Dragon (sadly I haven't read either). That makes it furthermore an example that Brandon would in fact do something like this, and even if it's not that magic system it is an example of something cool that Hoid can do and most readers don't understand, which is exactly how allomancy would show up if Hoid was referring to swallowing Lerasium.

Of course, the something we haven't seen before angle is possible for almost any speculation. It just feels like the element would have gotten more attention than a single line in an epigraph if Brandon was planning on making it a central plot element

[Munin he/him]

The difference there is that the other "unrelated" stuff is mentioned in context. Skai and Aona (and Ati) are used to illustrate the problem that Rayse has become. "Three of sixteen" is to give that epigraph some context.

But "the element" comes out of nowhere and relates to nothing else in the letter. Saying that it won't play a role in the story is stretching it.

Everything is there for a reason, even if that reason isn't readily apparent.

Rutabaga.

[Earendil]

This requires pulling together several theories, but it's what I thought when I read this passage:

What if "the element" was what gives Hoid his powers (at present, we only know about functional immortality and world-hopping, but it seems quite likely that there are others)?  From what I understand, Brandon has said that Hoid is not a shard, but gets his power from something else.  From the snarky voice of the epigraph, it's fairly clear that whoever wrote it has made "the element" a part of themselves.  Hoid, with a mysterious power source, fits that bill quite nicely, and is witty enough to enjoy the joke.

For the Lerasium argument, I have to admit I just don't see it.  Our only real experience with Lerasium was with Elend, and while he became a powerful mistborn, he was still very human.  The element is something powerful enough to worry someone who has been around since Adonalasium shattered, most likely someone who has held a shard since then.  Ruin (Ati) certainly didn't seem very worried about Elend's power when he was confronting Vin.

[jacobfake]

Everything does serve a purpose, but 3 of 16 could easily be cut to just "Only the Broken One reigns now" or something like that, similarly Skai and Aona could be cut to something like "He's killed other Gods and shattered their power." The concrete examples certainly do a better job of storytelling, but he draws them all from the overlying theme of the Cosmere without actually explaining it solidly in any of the books because it gives his hardcore fans an extra something to make it really cool for them.

Similarly, the element doesn't need to be later explained to serve a purpose here. It helps establish hoid as an actual player in the cosmos, and furthermore that he hasn't just undertaken a quest here but has played a role before. It adds context that he actively takes part, and enhance him as a power figure instead of just a talker, and to add context of an ongoing relationship between him and the addressee, and that although the addressee goes for nonintervention, he is interested enough to want this element safe. Sure, all of these things could be accomplished without the line about the element, but they're accomplished more effectively by adding another thing the reader doesn't understand about the universe, just like the other cosmere references.

And

  The element is something powerful enough to worry someone who has been around since Adonalasium shattered, most likely someone who has held a shard since then.  Ruin (Ati) certainly didn't seem very worried about Elend's power when he was confronting Vin.

I doubt the addressee is worried about the element being used against him specifically. If he was trying to eliminate threats to himself, then I'm pretty sure Odium would be like number 1 on the list. However, he has a specific desire for nonintervention, which is exactly why he would want to make sure Lerasium is kept safe, considering that leaving 1000 years of allomancers on Roshar would probably qualify as intervention.

[Andrew the Great he/him]

We have a lot more reasons to believe that the element is not lerasium at this point than we do otherwise.

Another thing that I just thought of - it's entirely possible that the people on Roshar wouldn't even be able to use Lerasium. After all, preservation was critical to the creation of the people on Scadrial. I can see how they might be more attuned to its powers than someone on Roshar. I seem to recall a Brandon quote from somewhere that talked about how skaa don't have normal human anatomy, or the nobles, or possible both. I'll try to dig it up. In any case, we don't even know if the people on Roshar could use lerasium.

I really like the idea that Hoid has somehow made the element part of himself, whatever that may entail. It hadn't even occurred to me, but the line about, "You might say I protect it like my own skin" makes a lot more sense in that context.

[jacobfake]

i thought i addressed all those reasons in my first post though. What did I miss/ what did I get wrong?

and I feel like we already discussed whether or not it could be used but maybe that was another thread. The Elantrian's magic wouldn't work as in the novel it gets weaker as they move farther away from the city but that's because the ruins act as floodgates to let Aona's power in, so the power isn't actually in the Elantrians. Atium and Lerasium, however, are the physical bodies of Ati and Leras. Ati was unable to weild his power without the atium reserves because his power was literally taken away from him and put into the atium beads. if we infer that the same was true of Leras' body put into Lerasium beads then they are literally parts of his body (/what used to be his body) and therefore have their own power anywhere.

The reason the Nobles and Skaa have their genetic makeup changed is because when the Lord Ruler remade the world he made the Skaa shorter and hardier for work in the fields, and made the nobles taller and fairer skinned (+ other changes listed in the book). I believe Brandon said what you referred to before the Mistborn series was complete, which is why it was significant at the time.

And it making sense if he made the element a part of him is exactly why I think it was Lerasium and he swallowed it.

[Dryone]

"You might say I protect it like my own skin" could also mean he made the element part of his skin or someone other's skin. Parshmen and Elantrians come to my mind.

[Munin he/him]

i thought i addressed all those reasons in my first post though. What did I miss/ what did I get wrong?

One of your points is that it's a minor plot point. If it's Lerasium, and it shows up again, and it actually does something noteworthy, it's no longer a minor plot point. If it doesn't do anything, then it just confuses things needlessly for those who haven't read Mistborn.

and I feel like we already discussed whether or not it could be used but maybe that was another thread. The Elantrian's magic wouldn't work as in the novel it gets weaker as they move farther away from the city but that's because the ruins act as floodgates to let Aona's power in, so the power isn't actually in the Elantrians. Atium and Lerasium, however, are the physical bodies of Ati and Leras. Ati was unable to weild his power without the atium reserves because his power was literally taken away from him and put into the atium beads. if we infer that the same was true of Leras' body put into Lerasium beads then they are literally parts of his body (/what used to be his body) and therefore have their own power anywhere.

The reason the Nobles and Skaa have their genetic makeup changed is because when the Lord Ruler remade the world he made the Skaa shorter and hardier for work in the fields, and made the nobles taller and fairer skinned (+ other changes listed in the book). I believe Brandon said what you referred to before the Mistborn series was complete, which is why it was significant at the time.

The question isn't whether or not it would work, it's whether or not Lerasium would do much of anything on Roshar. First off, without merchants who are in the business of making alloys to sell to Mistborn, anyone who ate Lerasium would have a hard time getting the right mixtures to fuel Allomancy. Second, there doesn't seem to be as much metal around as on Scadrial (where it was basically a religious thing), so iron and steel would be less useful. Copper and Bronze are useless, Tin is of limited utility, Pewter is basically like weaker Shardplate... Brass and zinc would be handy, but I doubt anyone could get their hands on Atium (I don't even know if there's any left).

And that's to say nothing of the fact that a single Mistborn can't do much of anything anyways. The Voidbringers don't appear to use much metal, and it definitely won't bother Odium at all. So the only way it becomes significant is if someone needs to fight a lot of humans using metal weapons/armor.

And it making sense if he made the element a part of him is exactly why I think it was Lerasium and he swallowed it.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think that the element (whatever it is) is a part of him, now, but Lerasium isn't the only possibility.

[jacobfake]

One of your points is that it's a minor plot point. If it's Lerasium, and it shows up again, and it actually does something noteworthy, it's no longer a minor plot point. If it doesn't do anything, then it just confuses things needlessly for those who haven't read Mistborn.

Not if it shows up in the form of Hoid using it, which is pretty much the only way it could show up in the theory that he swallowed it. If it did, it would be major for everyone who has read mistborn because they would recognize the power, but for those who haven't it would just be another of Hoid's undescribed powers. It wouldn't confuse them any more than the way he told the story to Kaladin, in other words they would just accept it and nobody would be confused and mistborn would still hardly be required reading, and it would be a plot point in the overall cosmere storyline but still minor in way of kings. (at least the element part; however he used it would be important, but those who haven't read mistborn wouldn't be very likely to connect it to the element.)

The question isn't whether or not it would work, it's whether or not Lerasium would do much of anything on Roshar. First off, without merchants who are in the business of making alloys to sell to Mistborn, anyone who ate Lerasium would have a hard time getting the right mixtures to fuel Allomancy. Second, there doesn't seem to be as much metal around as on Scadrial (where it was basically a religious thing), so iron and steel would be less useful. Copper and Bronze are useless, Tin is of limited utility, Pewter is basically like weaker Shardplate... Brass and zinc would be handy, but I doubt anyone could get their hands on Atium (I don't even know if there's any left).

And that's to say nothing of the fact that a single Mistborn can't do much of anything anyways. The Voidbringers don't appear to use much metal, and it definitely won't bother Odium at all. So the only way it becomes significant is if someone needs to fight a lot of humans using metal weapons/armor.

That's definitely a better way of phrasing the question, I hardly read that much into it before, but allomancers still get trace metals just by eating and drinking from silverware and the minerals in the water, (there are definitely examples of people using limited versions of their powers without realizing it in mistborn) so they wouldn't be completely powerless, and as for getting the specific mixtures right they would have at least a 1000 years to figure it out and as long as they got it anywhere in there it would have a pretty big effect. Also, you seem to be assuming that whoever got the Lerasium would be fighting on the good guys' side. If Szeth or Taravangian or the Ghostbloods got it they would be able to use it pretty effectively, especially since if it goes to someone smart they'll notice it and not just superstitiously accept it, and start trying to figure out how it works. Every generation that passes exponentially increases the chances of somebody working it out. Also, any merchant that discovered it anywhere along the way would make use of it even if the last desolation had already come. It seems unlikely that the addressee's nonintervention policy applies exclusively to fighting evil shardholders like Odium. Furthermore, the circumstances that make it less effective would also make it multiple times as effective once somebody figured it out. The soldiers would not be equipped at all to deal with it, and if it was a coinshot he could kill tons of them. Also, the addressee could have been concerned about Hoid losing it back on Scadrial, or on any other of the worlds he goes to. Even if the thousand years might be able to pass without any of these happening, it certainly seems like enough for the addressee to be worried.

[Munin he/him]

Except that the only real way he'd get his hands on Lerasium is if Sazed gave it to him to protect it... and the letter isn't written from or to Sazed. Notice how the letter calls the addressee "old friend".

[Chaos he/him]

Quick note here.

The difference there is that the other "unrelated" stuff is mentioned in context. Skai and Aona (and Ati) are used to illustrate the problem that Rayse has become. "Three of sixteen" is to give that epigraph some context.

I'm pretty certain that the quote in question ("Three of sixteen ruled, but now the Broken One reigns") refers to the fact that there are three Shards on Roshar, and Odium is reigning.

You may now continue with the debate

Andrew pretty much sums up my opinion when he said:

We have a lot more reasons to believe that the element is not lerasium at this point than we do otherwise.

[Munin he/him]

Quick note here.

The difference there is that the other "unrelated" stuff is mentioned in context. Skai and Aona (and Ati) are used to illustrate the problem that Rayse has become. "Three of sixteen" is to give that epigraph some context.

I'm pretty certain that the quote in question ("Three of sixteen ruled, but now the Broken One reigns") refers to the fact that there are three Shards on Roshar, and Odium is reigning.

You may now continue with the debate

I was actually trying to say the same thing, but was failing miserably.

What I meant was that saying that "three ruled, but now the Broken One reigns" would mean basically nothing. By clarifying that it's "Three of sixteen", we know that they were Shards.

Or a member of the Borg Collective.

[Chaos he/him]

Oh, gotcha. Sorry, I just misinterpreted what you said

[Nehex he/him]

Lerasium wouldn't be of much help to Hoid. From what I understand, you only have access to the magic from whatever world you come from. For example, if someone from Scadrial were to find themselves on Sel, they wouldn't be able to become an Elantrian or use the Aons in any magical capacity. So, unless Hoid is originally from Scadrial (which is unlikely), lerasium is useless to him.

[Earendil]

This is kind of off topic, but...

I seem to recall a Brandon quote from somewhere that talked about how skaa don't have normal human anatomy, or the nobles, or possible both. I'll try to dig it up. In any case, we don't even know if the people on Roshar could use lerasium.

From HoA:

From the Canzi teachings about the body, Sazed determined that the physiology of mankind had changed--either by the Lord Ruler's intention or by simple evolution--to adapt to breathing ash and eating brown plants.

(chapter 82 page 716-717 in the paperback).  I also believe that in one of the epigraphs, Sazed specifically mentions that the Lord Ruler changed humankind, rather than trying to change things back (he mentions it as evidence of the influence of Preservation).

So yes, human physiology on Scadrial was different, but there's no evidence that that difference continued after HoA (from what I've read).  This doesn't invalidate the theory that only someone from Scadrial could use Lerasium, however, since everyone on Scadrial was created using the combined powers of Preservation and Ruin--possibly attuning them to these powers in the future...

[mycoltbug]

Lerasium wouldn't be of much help to Hoid. From what I understand, you only have access to the magic from whatever world you come from. For example, if someone from Scadrial were to find themselves on Sel, they wouldn't be able to become an Elantrian or use the Aons in any magical capacity. So, unless Hoid is originally from Scadrial (which is unlikely), lerasium is useless to him.

Which we can deem this as false. Brandon did confirm last night it is possible to use magic from other systems all through out the cosmere.

[Earendil]

I don't want to just be contrary, but I do want to respond to the idea that the addressee is worried about lerasium from a "non-intervention" standpoint.

First, I have to admit that this is the only argument for lerasium that I can't dismiss out of hand.  If that seems like a pretty weak admission, well, it kind of is.  Most of the arguments I've read for the element being lerasium follow the line of "The element is a cool, powerful thing.  Lerasium is a cool, powerful thing.  Ergo, Element=Lerasium".  This argument is predicated on the belief that Brandon can/has only come up with one cool, powerful thing, which I don't buy.

Now, to addressing the argument that allowing lerasium out would be intervention.  Before we can deal with this, we have to define what we mean by intervention.  Obviously, the addressee is okay with a certain level of intervention, since he set the 17th shard to chasing down the writer of the epigraphs (probably Hoid, but let's keep an open mind).  Therefore, we must assume that there is some level of intervention in human affairs that is okay with the addressee, even if it is just enough to try to prevent others from intervening.

**HERE THERE BE DRAGONS**

This section is purely my theory, not well supported by facts at all.  Take it for what it is, but it seems likely that the intervention that the addressee is worried about is direct world-to-world intervention.  My guess as to the narative goes something like this:

Sixteen fairly ordinary people suddenly find themselves holding elements of creation.  Alone, they can't really create anything, but together, they can essentially become gods.  The only problem?  They can't agree on how things should be run.  At this point, the shards themselves are probably only partially influential, and the personalities of the people who gained the shards are more dominant, but either way, they find themselves fracturing.  In the interest of not starting a cosmic war between creatures of unimaginable strength, they come to an agreement.  Each person (or group) is allowed their own world, to do with as they please.  The only rule?  You can't intervene with anyone else's world--no meddling because they're doing it wrong.

This setup makes sense, given what I know both of the Cosmere and time-honored epics.  Plus, it will make for a pretty awesome knock-down drag out fight, once everyone realizes that Germany isn't going to stop with Poland... ;D

**Back on the map**

Either way, we have to place allowing a rogue bead of Lerasium loose on Roshar against the continuum of intervention.  Compared with sending in the 17th shard, I can see how it would be a step up.  But even if a full Knight Radiant ate Lerasium, it seems to me that containing the threat would be fairly simple (especially at the beginning).  Even this level of "intervention", however, pales beside going head-to-head with Rayse, which is what the author is advocating.

Finally, you have to consider who's writing this letter.  The writer has been taking steps to insure the safety of the element, and is reassuring the addressee that he will continue protecting it.  The writer doesn't care about non-intervention--he's advocating direct intervention!  Since someone for intervention thinks it's important, and someone against intervention thinks it's important, it's far less likely that it's important because of the potential for intervention.

[Dryone]

I don't buy the Lerasium theory. I think the element is the body of another shard which was bound to the writer of the letter. Or he stole another shards body? Maybe Bavadin's?

[ChicagoWillshaper he/him]

My first post on the site. Hey everybody.

I don't think it's lerasium, but something that changes the person like lerasium does. I believe the element may change whoever holds all the shards into Adonolsium. Just as lerasium makes someone a mistborn. If we assume that Hoid's plans were a success in Mistborn the biggest change is that Sazed holds two shards. If Hoid's plan is as some assume to restore Adonolsium simply reuniting the shards may not be enough.  Some other element may be key that turns the ultimate shardholder into Adonolsium. If Hoid is united the shards into one subject a catalyst may be required to take it to the next level and return his friend/enemy/frenemy Adonolsium. That, in my opinion, is the element. What else would be so important to Hoid and his plans?

Whatever the true identity of the element is it may be mentioned in another book. The only options are that Hoid obtained the element outside the pages of a Sanderson book, we see the plans of Hoid in another book involving the element, or we actually see Hoid obtain the element. It may have been somethign that seemed utterly trivial at the time. 2/3 isn't bad odds. Re-reading the other novels for some element may be worthwile.

Anyway, sorry about the spelling.

[Andrew the Great he/him]

The only problem with this theory is that presumably several of the Shards have been splintered. Which would make it rather difficult to hold them and reunite them with the rest of Adonalsium.

On that note, why did Odium splinter Aona and Skai? Wouldn't it make more sense for him to take their shards for himself? We know that it's possible for one person to hold two shards. The only thing I can think of is that you have to take both shards at the same time. Or that Odium was so twisted by his shard that his nature was incompatible with the other two shards?

That's pretty much all i got at this point.

[Munin he/him]

On that note, why did Odium splinter Aona and Skai? Wouldn't it make more sense for him to take their shards for himself? We know that it's possible for one person to hold two shards. The only thing I can think of is that you have to take both shards at the same time. Or that Odium was so twisted by his shard that his nature was incompatible with the other two shards?

I think that Aona and Skai intentionally splintered their shards when they died so that Odium couldn't take them.

[ChicagoWillshaper he/him]

The only problem with this theory is that presumably several of the Shards have been splintered. Which would make it rather difficult to hold them and reunite them with the rest of Adonalsium.

Not if Hoid collects those splinters. That may be why the 17th shard is after him. That assumes a lot though: The 17th shard group is from the world of the Elantris novel. People in Elantris have splinters of the shard in them which might explain their special nature. The 17th shard group is out to stop Hoid.

Rayse certainly seemed convinced someone was out to collect them and went to great lengths to stop that from happening. Hoid seems to have a plan though.

On that note, why did Odium splinter Aona and Skai? Wouldn't it make more sense for him to take their shards for himself? We know that it's possible for one person to hold two shards. The only thing I can think of is that you have to take both shards at the same time. Or that Odium was so twisted by his shard that his nature was incompatible with the other two shards?

I think that Aona and Skai intentionally splintered their shards when they died so that Odium couldn't take them.

I think the 'headers' in part two lay out that Rayse splintered them to prevent others form capturing them:

Because I assure you, Rayse will not be similarly inhibited. One need only look at the aftermath of his brief visit to Sel to see proof of what I say. In case you have turned a blind eye to that disaster, know that Aona and Skai are both dead, and that which they held has been Splintered. Presumably to prevent anyone from rising up to challenge Rayse. -- Way of kings by Brandon Sanderson

Rayse may not want the shards to unite. He seems against unity in WoK. He was against the Almighty at least and the Almighty wanted unity. Maybe he doesn't like those parts/shards. He is hate after all. Maybe Adonolsium broke apart because of self-hate. Maybe Rayse thought collecting shards would make him target number one. Maybe in spite of being the most ruthless he still takes orders from someone like Bavadin.

[Andrew the Great he/him]

Way too many assumptions there for me to seriously consider Hoid reuniting Adonalsium as our most likely option. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? We don't really know enough to say.

And I know that Rayse didn't want others to capture them. What I was asking was more directed at what you answered in the last paragraph of your post. I actually quite like the idea that taking the other two shards would make him too much of a target for the other shards, though admittedly, killing off and splintering two shards kind of does that too.

Where Rayse is described as holding the most terrible shard, and Odium seems to be the one doing the damage, and Bavadin is kind of only briefly mentioned in passing, it seems most likely that Rayse/Odium is acting independently, or maybe with a loose alliance with Bavadin. It seems unlikely that he would take orders from Bavadin.

[ChicagoWillshaper he/him]

It is a lot of assumptions. I freely admit it's way too early in the game to be saying Hoid will be ripping shard splinters out of people.  ;D  Until we get more info I'll probably be throwing lots of crazy ideas. The element being tied to restoring Adonolsium is still not that goofy.

Rayse may be the most terrible that doesn't make him a free agent. It may be a Master Blaster situation. One brain one brawn. Rayse/Odium sent out to do the dirty work like a mob enforcer. Either by direct order or some manipulation. It can't be hard to manipulate hate. Again speculating...

With the shard collecting we don't know enough to say for sure, but we do know holding the shards over long periods changes the holder. Reasonable to assume that the guy holding the hate shard wouldn't want the love shard or even the cute puppy shard.