Emerald Falcon Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said: Why not mention me? I was part of that late hour debacle too! Are you just taking me as an innocent bystander that got sucked in? @Emerald Falcon Would that mean you also suspect Amber Vulture, or are you just saying that Magenta's actions are super suspicious. Mild elim read on Emerald falcon, and maybe Cream Tutara as well. Yeah I probably deserve that read. I was tired, and thought I had read the entire thread, so I think I missed some stuff about the end of the cycle. Don’t worry, I won’t forget about you again. Now it’s time to talk some game mechanics. So we know from the above right up that there are at least two “village” factions. The refugees, which I’m going to assume are just vanilla villagers, and the fleeing informants, who probabaly have a different win con, and potentially special powers. From this slip up: 7 hours ago, Melon Dingo said: Anyway, two people with green roles died, so they're likely village We know that there’s a 3rd non-elim faction, as it’s very unlikely an elim would make a mistake like that. Whether or not this is the Kandra is debatable, but my gut says no. The fact that the captain was attacked savagely seems to imply some kind of hemalurgic monster or Koloss. And finally we can assume there’s an elim team because of the kill last night. So now that we have our factions laid out, let’s guess the actual win cons. The fact that the informant roll has the prefix fleeing implies they’re running from something, and the name informant means they know something. Because of this I find it unlikely that the they are being chased by the hemalurgic monster/koloss/Kandra. Instead remember the title of the sign up thread? Scadrain black ops team. My guess is that the elim team is a black ops group trying to kill the informants who know too much. They are experts of disguise and hidden assasination (the role swap mechanic, the person who “dies” is an the account of an elim, while they actually switched with someone else). I’m guessing the hemalurgic monster/koloss is trying to either reach a certain number of kills before getting killed themselves, or kill the black ops team who work for the mega company that created them (the monster). So win cons here: refugees:survive Informants:escape? or lynch the black ops team/threats to their escape Black ops team:kill the informants hemalurgic monster:kill a certain number of people. I’ll do an actual analysis post later, but I’d thought I’d share these thoughts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fifth Scholar Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Thank you, Ostrich. The idea came from Samuel Taylor Coleridge’s poem “The Rime of the Ancient Mariner,” which uses the same rhyming pattern and structure as my writeup, and also talks about the consequences of shooting harmless albatrosses. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emerald Falcon Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said: Thank you, Ostrich. The idea came from Samuel Taylor Coleridge’s poem “The Rime of the Ancient Mariner,” which uses the same rhyming pattern and structure as my writeup, and also talks about the consequences of shooting harmless albatrosses. Really good write up, I will definitely be checking out that poem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 24 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said: refugees:survive Informants:escape? or lynch the black ops team/threats to their escape Black ops team:kill the informants hemalurgic monster:kill a certain number of people. I’ll do an actual analysis post later, but I’d thought I’d share these thoughts now. Emerald Falcon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivory Dragonfly Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said: And thus we see that Albatross Slightly confused, though he was Did not have blood of Koloss Just a bit of mental fuzz. Koloss? 28 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said: Yeah I probably deserve that read. I was tired, and thought I had read the entire thread, so I think I missed some stuff about the end of the cycle. Don’t worry, I won’t forget about you again. Now it’s time to talk some game mechanics. So we know from the above right up that there are at least two “village” factions. The refugees, which I’m going to assume are just vanilla villagers, and the fleeing informants, who probabaly have a different win con, and potentially special powers. From this slip up: We know that there’s a 3rd non-elim faction, as it’s very unlikely an elim would make a mistake like that. Whether or not this is the Kandra is debatable, but my gut says no. The fact that the captain was attacked savagely seems to imply some kind of hemalurgic monster or Koloss. And finally we can assume there’s an elim team because of the kill last night. So now that we have our factions laid out, let’s guess the actual win cons. The fact that the informant roll has the prefix fleeing implies they’re running from something, and the name informant means they know something. Because of this I find it unlikely that the they are being chased by the hemalurgic monster/koloss/Kandra. Instead remember the title of the sign up thread? Scadrain black ops team. My guess is that the elim team is a black ops group trying to kill the informants who know too much. They are experts of disguise and hidden assasination (the role swap mechanic, the person who “dies” is an the account of an elim, while they actually switched with someone else). I’m guessing the hemalurgic monster/koloss is trying to either reach a certain number of kills before getting killed themselves, or kill the black ops team who work for the mega company that created them (the monster). So win cons here: refugees:survive Informants:escape? or lynch the black ops team/threats to their escape Black ops team:kill the informants hemalurgic monster:kill a certain number of people. I’ll do an actual analysis post later, but I’d thought I’d share these thoughts now. Actually, I reckon that informants is just a village role, otherwise it would be a different color. And nope, that's not the refugee win condition, because I can attest that refugee = village. That's interesting. You are clearly not a villager from this analysis. So what are you, Falcon? Edit: Ninja'd. Edited July 12, 2018 by Ivory Dragonfly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 (edited) Oooh. Very fascinating, this is. I agree with dragonfly that refugee is just a vanilla village, and the informant is a villager role, @Emerald Falcon what lead you to believe that these are two different factions? Emerald Falcon Edit: the refugee (village) win con is, if it wasn't obvious already, to kill the elim faction(s) Edited July 12, 2018 by Amethyst Scorpion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 What even is keeping information private Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Ikr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivory Dragonfly Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Subtlety has never really been my thing Although, Scorpion, note that I said nothing about refugee being an unpowered role, just that refugee is the name of the village faction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Whoopsie. Though because the write ups already mention us being aboard a ship filled with refugees, that's not a hard thing to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 I'm happy to throw my vote onto Emerald Falcon, for apparently not knowing our win condition. Suggests he isn't a Refugee. This might change later in the cycle, depends on what else comes to light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indigo Weasel Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 (edited) I'm gonna be "that guy", which might not bode well with me, but if I was a refugee, I wouldn't want others to know my wonton, so I would put up another win on for others to see. I do think it's kind of odd that Amber vulture said that, but I'm gonna cut him some slack Edited July 12, 2018 by Indigo Weasel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emerald Falcon Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Yeah, I’m not a refugee There would be no reason to screw myself if I was an elim, so I just sort of figured I’d go ahead and post what I thought anyway. I definitely think there are better people to lynch then me (dingo for one). Also when I meant survive I meant eliminate the elim faction (and maybe the hemalurgic monster). So yeah! I don’t really want to share my role, and so I’m not going to. For now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indigo Weasel Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 (edited) Edit to me previous post: 4 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said: I'm gonna be "that guy", which might not bode well with me, but if I was a refugee, I wouldn't want others to know my wonton, so I would put up another win on for others to see. I do think it's kind of odd that Amber vulture said that, but I'm gonna cut him some slack Please change Amber vulture to emerald falcon in your minds eye. Also, it's supposed to say wincon, not wonton Edited July 12, 2018 by Indigo Weasel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Emerald Falcon. 5 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said: I'm gonna be "that guy", which might not bode well with me, but if I was a refugee, I wouldn't want others to know my wonton, so I would put up another win on for others to see. I do think it's kind of odd that Amber vulture said that, but I'm gonna cut him some slack Being 'that guy' is always worth honestly. Wasn't the suspicious part of that post though, but it's pretty clear to me that Falcon is either third-party or an elim. In case they're a third-party, I'm not gonna that guy who goes after the neutrals because oh no they could help the elims or anything like that. Just gonna assume they're a helpful neutral and not gonna go on a killing spree or anything. But if there is one, then ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 sigh. This very much reeks of IKYK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emerald Falcon Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: sigh. This very much reeks of IKYK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indigo Weasel Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 I know I just barely defended Falcon for his post earlier this cycle, but Emerald Falcon for the suspicions he threw late hour last cycle, right after we got someone tying Albatross's lynch. Instead of trying to find out the alignment of the cream tutara, I think it would be better to try to find out Emerald Falcon's alignment. (But depending on how he flips, then I will go back and suspect the Tutara. This is subject to change based on the discussion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivory Dragonfly Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Emerald Falcon said: Yeah, I’m not a refugee There would be no reason to screw myself if I was an elim, so I just sort of figured I’d go ahead and post what I thought anyway. I definitely think there are better people to lynch then me (dingo for one). Also when I meant survive I meant eliminate the elim faction (and maybe the hemalurgic monster). So yeah! I don’t really want to share my role, and so I’m not going to. For now Okay, I understand. Presumably you are claiming some form of benign neutral. I can respect that. And while I don't want to be "that other guy" who attacks neutral claimants, I'm seeing a few problems with this. I strongly suspect that you included your own secret role in your list of role speculations. Which is problematic, because none of the ones you speculated about fits the bill for benign neutral. You tried to backtrack on the meaning of "survive" as the refugee win condition, stating that you actually meant "kill all evils." I find myself unable to believe this explanation: You admit that you are indeed not village, but then also disputed the meaning of survive. Most truthful explanations do not need to attack every link in the chain of an argument. "Survive" has a much more obvious meaning, and the simplest explanation is that you most likely meant it to mean survive. You originally speculated the informants had a "kill all evils" faction. And then you went out of your way to distinguish informants and refugees as seperate factions. Now you are saying you believed they had the same win condition all along? If a neutral claimant is unwilling to share their win condition with the village, then logically there are two most likely reasons for this. Either their win condition is harmful to the village, or they aren't actually neutral at all. I am sorry if I am wrong, but from how Falcon has responded to our votes, I find it difficult to see how Falcon is anything but an anti-village role at this point. So my vote stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amber Vulture Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Quote Aboard the resource hauler Pride of Terris, fear was beginning to suffuse the cramped spaces. It wasn't just the leftover terror from the rushed evacuation - as terrifying as deserting a damaged space station had been, that was not the fear that began to take over the ship. Nor was it the claustrophobic fear that breeds itself whenever a mass of desperate humanity is crammed into a space that is too small for them. Nor yet was it even the special fear that comes to flower on a spaceship packed with people as the air recyclers are slowly beginning to overload and the food supplies dwindle in the face of the all-consuming hunger of more than a dozen refugees on a spaceship designed for a crew of 6. This was from the original post of the game (I bolded the word), and why I'm not putting a lot of stock in anyone's use of the word refugee on D1. Anyone who read the initial write-up could have picked up on that being the village role. It's part of why I didn't even take notice of Weasel and Albatross' italicized interaction. I remember thinking "why would they italicize those words?", but I didn't equate it with being village because I thought everyone knew that already. 1 hour ago, Emerald Falcon said: Yeah, I’m not a refugee There would be no reason to screw myself if I was an elim, so I just sort of figured I’d go ahead and post what I thought anyway. I definitely think there are better people to lynch then me (dingo for one). Also when I meant survive I meant eliminate the elim faction (and maybe the hemalurgic monster). So yeah! I don’t really want to share my role, and so I’m not going to. For now For a point toward Falcon, I didn't see him using the word "survive" as anything odd. A village win-con usually comes with the inherent order to survive in order to win. When I read his first post, I equated it with his description here. However, him admitting he's not a refugee does give me pause. It could be he's another "Fleeing Informant", which very well could be a village faction with a slightly different wincon than just kill the eliminators. However, I'm of the mindset that this is more of a "role-madness" style game, where there are special roles that the village can hold. I'm less inclined to believe "Fleeing Informant" is a sub-faction. That leaves Falcon as either an eliminator, or the unknown faction. Quote We know that there’s a 3rd non-elim faction, as it’s very unlikely an elim would make a mistake like that. Whether or not this is the Kandra is debatable, but my gut says no. The fact that the captain was attacked savagely seems to imply some kind of hemalurgic monster or Koloss. And finally we can assume there’s an elim team because of the kill last night. The first part of this quote from Emerald Falcon leads me to lean toward the latter. We don't know there's a third, non-elim faction. We have guessed based on the body-swap mechanic, but we have also speculated that might be part of the elim team's abilities. The third sentence gives me pause. He's already admitted to not being a refugee, so he wouldn't know that was part of the win-con unless he picked up on that when someone mentioned it D1. Only now assuming there's an elim team feels strange to me. It's like he's attempting to distance himself from elims by saying he wasn't sure there were any. Either way, I'm suspicious of of Emerald Falcon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chartreuse Penguin Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Sorry for few posts. Either way, I don't really think Emerald Falcon is certainly anti-village. If they don't want to share their win-con, that could just as easily be because it was anti-elim and they didn't want to be on the radar for a good kill target. That's assuming Falcon is a neutral-which I'm not completely convinced of so far. I think it might be good to suggest a compromise. @Emerald Falcon How about you tell us the name of your faction or role or whatever? That way we can, if one dies in the future, confirm your neutral status. That might open up some issues on your part depending on the name, but I find it much less likely to get you killed at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emerald Falcon Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 Just now, Chartreuse Penguin said: Sorry for few posts. Either way, I don't really think Emerald Falcon is certainly anti-village. If they don't want to share their win-con, that could just as easily be because it was anti-elim and they didn't want to be on the radar for a good kill target. That's assuming Falcon is a neutral-which I'm not completely convinced of so far. I think it might be good to suggest a compromise. @Emerald Falcon How about you tell us the name of your faction or role or whatever? That way we can, if one dies in the future, confirm your neutral status. That might open up some issues on your part depending on the name, but I find it much less likely to get you killed at least. My problem is that the second I give any true hint to my faction, I’m dead. No matter what. Whether it’s by elims or the lynch, I’m not going to say. So that’s why I’m playing my role so close to the chest. 26 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said: Okay, I understand. Presumably you are claiming some form of benign neutral. I can respect that. And while I don't want to be "that other guy" who attacks neutral claimants, I'm seeing a few problems with this. I strongly suspect that you included your own secret role in your list of role speculations. Which is problematic, because none of the ones you speculated about fits the bill for benign neutral. You tried to backtrack on the meaning of "survive" as the refugee win condition, stating that you actually meant "kill all evils." I find myself unable to believe this explanation: You admit that you are indeed not village, but then also disputed the meaning of survive. Most truthful explanations do not need to attack every link in the chain of an argument. "Survive" has a much more obvious meaning, and the simplest explanation is that you most likely meant it to mean survive. You originally speculated the informants had a "kill all evils" faction. And then you went out of your way to distinguish informants and refugees as seperate factions. Now you are saying you believed they had the same win condition all along? If a neutral claimant is unwilling to share their win condition with the village, then logically there are two most likely reasons for this. Either their win condition is harmful to the village, or they aren't actually neutral at all. I am sorry if I am wrong, but from how Falcon has responded to our votes, I find it difficult to see how Falcon is anything but an anti-village role at this point. So my vote stands. This is sound logic. I have just one response. I’m not neutral. 18 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: Only now assuming there's an elim team feels strange to me. It's like he's attempting to distance himself from elims by saying he wasn't sure there were any Sigh, I know responding to this one is just digging my hole deeper, but... I wrote that post before I saw the write up, so I wasn’t sure if the kill was a result of the monster. Also, this blackout game was built to try out at least 1 new mechanic, why not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amber Vulture Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said: Sigh, I know responding to this one is just digging my hole deeper, but... I wrote that post before I saw the write up, so I wasn’t sure if the kill was a result of the monster. Also, this blackout game was built to try out at least 1 new mechanic, why not more. I get you. That was my entire existence during D1... constantly digging myself a bigger hole. I'm inclined to believe you're not an elim, but what you said before this makes me hesitate to remove my vote. You say you're not neutral, nor are you village or elim. You say both would want to kill you if we learned what you are. That suggests a third faction with a strange win-con. Is it out to kill both other factions? Or could it be like the Cthaeh mechanic during the last MR, where one of each faction has to remain? Or does that faction have abilities that could be problematic for both elims and village? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emerald Falcon Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: I get you. That was my entire existence during D1... constantly digging myself a bigger hole. I'm inclined to believe you're not an elim, but what you said before this makes me hesitate to remove my vote. You say you're not neutral, nor are you village or elim. You say both would want to kill you if we learned what you are. That suggests a third faction with a strange win-con. Is it out to kill both other factions? Or could it be like the Cthaeh mechanic during the last MR, where one of each faction has to remain? Or does that faction have abilities that could be problematic for both elims and village? Both wouldn’t want to kill me, it’s an or, not an and. One of them (the elims or the village) would definitely want to kill me, if my speculation is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted July 12, 2018 Report Share Posted July 12, 2018 20 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said: I’m not neutral. 4 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said: One of them (the elims or the village) would definitely want to kill me, if my speculation is correct. So...you're basically saying that you're either village or elim. That's helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.png.d41b1ca865930ccf5f63b08a839f908e.png){kind=logo}
Recommended Posts