Quick Fix Game 31: <MISSING VARIABLE>

[Elandera she/her]

Thanks Rand! I expected to die. I don't have time right now to do much (since I'm on a short stop while driving several hours home), but I'll think about the next option and vote tomorrow.

[DeTess she/her]

... I'd just like to point out that we are looking at something very close to lylo here.

Right now it's 4 to 2 (assuming Sophie's conversion last turn went through). If we mislynch, that's probably going to be 2 to 2 next cycle, with the elims having either the grand steward(which means game-over), or the fiance (which means it's going to be two coin-flips, both of which the village has to win to win).

Anyway, I'm going to vote on Devotary for now. I doubt Eternum and Drought are on the same team because of Drought's vote, so that'd leave either eternum+Devotary or Drought+Devotary.

Then again, that vote could have been a distancing technique if the team is Drought+Eternum, but I don't think that's the case. I'd really like to hear everyone else's opinion though.

[DeTess she/her]

We're halfway through the cycle that'll probably decide the game, and only two players have spoken up. @Young Bard. @Eternum, @Droughtbringer and @Devotary of Spontaneity, if at all possible could you check in and share your thoughts?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

It's an interesting feeling to be a villager yet know the exact composition of the elim team. Randuir's successful protection gives us a very good chance of winning, even if I get lynched today. 

Between Sophie and her presumed convert, I think it's more important to lynch the convert, in case the kill goes through. Lynching Sophie gives the convert a 50% chance of acquiring any role, while lynching the convert ensures that a villager gains the role.

Reasons why Eternum might not be Sophie: Eternum didn't post during cycle 1, yet Sophie was active enough to kill.

Reasons why Drought might not be Sophie: Elenion tried to lynch Drought while Sophie had not yet used all her conversions. Does it count as suicide if a Sophie with two lives tries to convert the same cycle she gets lynched? If so, lynching a Drought!Sophie would have prevented the Melhi faction from going a second convert. I don't see Elenion doing this, so  that would mean Drought isn't Sophie. That makes him the second convert, so Droughtbringer.

@Elandera, @Young Bard, what do you two think?

 

[DeTess she/her]

@Devotary of Spontaneity, why do you think Either Eternum or Drought would have recruited either Eternum or Drought? Both were rather inactive, so wouldn't it be safer to recruit someone more active? If you're village then I understand that it's obvious to you that they must both be evil, but just remember that for me it could be any two of you three, and right now it just makes more sense for me that you are the convert.

Edit: @A Joe in the Bush, I don't think you mentioned who became immune to conversion previous cycle?

Edited April 20, 2018 by randuir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Because the second place vote ended up tied after Bard removed the second vote on Drake, we don't get to know who gained immunity. It's equally likely for it to have been Eternum as Droughtbringer. Conversion immunity lasts for two cycles, and the cycle before the second conversion was another tied for second lynch, for which I was one of the players possibly granted immunity. It appears the strategy of engineering ties to preserve the anonymity of roles has a cost in an endgame dependent on a mass roleclaim.

49 minutes ago, randuir said:

why do you think Either Eternum or Drought would have recruited either Eternum or Drought?

Since the lynch comes before conversions, we know that Elenion was converted cycle 2. We also know that on cycle 3, Sophie attempted to convert and Bard was first on her list. Since you had claimed knight and Orlok was killed that night, we know that the remaining two spots on the attempted conversion were filled by <Droughtbringer, Eternum, Devotary, Elandera, Crimsn>. Since Crimsn was innocent and Elandera has a role, we know that if either of them were on the list at all, they were in the third slot. No one else received a message of a failed conversion, so we know that the second player from among <Droughtbringer, Eternum, Devotary> got converted. From my perspective as the almost certainly the only remaining roleless villager, I can be reasonably sure who filled that second slot. From your perspective, that's not nearly so clear. 

I see Elandera and Droughtbringer are here. Do you two have anything to say?

[Elandera she/her]

9 hours ago, randuir said:

... I'd just like to point out that we are looking at something very close to lylo here.

Right now it's 4 to 2 (assuming Sophie's conversion last turn went through). If we mislynch, that's probably going to be 2 to 2 next cycle, with the elims having either the grand steward(which means game-over), or the fiance (which means it's going to be two coin-flips, both of which the village has to win to win).

Anyway, I'm going to vote on Devotary for now. I doubt Eternum and Drought are on the same team because of Drought's vote, so that'd leave either eternum+Devotary or Drought+Devotary.

Then again, that vote could have been a distancing technique if the team is Drought+Eternum, but I don't think that's the case. I'd really like to hear everyone else's opinion though.

I think a Sophie!Drought vote on a Convert!Eternum would be a fairly safe vote, with so many of us voting for Crimsn. I'm still leaning very much toward Drought being Sophie. If that's the case, they've been playing a risky but successful voting strategy. Elenion voted for Drought, which would admittedly be very risky seeing as he was close to being lynched. But if that lynch had gone through, Elenion would have been able to keep working as a convert without suspicion because everyone would see he helped lynch Sophie.

Honestly, no one seems to be a good Sophie candidate, but Eternum seemed to be too inactive and Devotary too helpful with strategies to counter Sophie at the start.

But Devotary has good reasoning regarding lynching the convert first. So with a Sophie!Drought, I'm leaning towards Eternum as convert.

[Droughtbringer]

So we know that there are two elims left, then? I've been busy at a competition that was not supposed to be as busy as it is, so I haven't had as much time to read through the thread. 'm going to vote on Devotary for now, as he is guaranteed (according to Rand, Which I agree with). This just leaves me trying to find a way to prove that I wasn't converted and Eternum was...

I'll think on it, I have a two hour plane ride before the end of the cycle tomorrow, but think that we should probably lynch Devotary at some point today.

Sorry if this post sounds weird... I'm tired.

[Elandera she/her]

I decided to go back and look at the vote tallies to see who was possibly immune to conversion:

Quote

Bort was a Machineborn!

Vote tally:
Drought(1): Bard
Bort(3): Devotary, Elenion, Crimsn
Eternum(1): Drought
Randuir(1): Orlok
Elenion(1): Bort
Bard(1): Elandera
Devotary(1): Randuir

This was the cycle where Elenion was likely converted. That would mean those possibly immune would have been Drought, Eternum, Randuir, Bard and Devotary.

Quote

Elenion was a !Bot!
Orlok was a Machineborn!

Vote tally:
Orlok(1): Eternum
Elenion(2): Bard, Orlok
Crimsn(1): Devotary
Droughttttt(1): Randuir
Eternum(1): Elandera
Elandera(1): Crimsn

Of those left in the game, possibly immune include Drought, Eternum and myself.

Does anyone know if the randomized immunity could have gone to Sophie or the villagers with roles?

[DeTess she/her]

17 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

So we know that there are two elims left, then? I've been busy at a competition that was not supposed to be as busy as it is, so I haven't had as much time to read through the thread. 'm going to vote on Devotary for now, as he is guaranteed (according to Rand, Which I agree with). This just leaves me trying to find a way to prove that I wasn't converted and Eternum was...

Specifically, I think devotary is the convert, with you or eternum being Sophie. I'm still of the opinion that devotary is very unlikely to be sophie.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

1 hour ago, randuir said:

Edit: @A Joe in the Bush, I don't think you mentioned who became immune to conversion previous cycle?

If it is randomly selected, you are not told.

23 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Does anyone know if the randomized immunity could have gone to Sophie or the villagers with roles?

That is possible.

[DeTess she/her]

22 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

If it is randomly selected, you are not told.

Yeah, that was my bad. I knew we where trying to do the random selection C1, and we where told then that Orlok was selected, but I failed to take into account that that hadn't been random.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

Of those left in the game, possibly immune include Drought, Eternum and myself.

Quote

If a player had the 2nd most votes on them that cycle, or the previous cycle, they cannot be converted, allowing for preventative voting.

Conversion immunity lasts for two cycles, so every living player could potentially have been immune to that second conversion.

Vote Tally:

Devotary(2): Randuir, Droughtbringer
Droughtbringer(1): Devotary
Eternum(1): Elandera

There's still eight hours left in the cycle, which should be plenty of time for @Young Bard to vote.

[Elandera she/her]

Sorry if it wasn't clear, that statement was referring to the votes on that cycle alone, not immunity overall.

But you're right. Any of the three without roles could be immune, so it's not super helpful. We have to assume any of you could have been converted. I'm leaving my vote for now on Eternum.

[DeTess she/her]

8 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

There's still eight hours left in the cycle, which should be plenty of time for @Young Bard to vote.

At this point, I'm also very interested in seeing how @Eternum will vote.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

An hour and twenty minutes before rollover and we still have two players who haven't posted. Notifying them doesn't seem to do any good, but let's try it anyway.

@Droughtbringer, @Eternum, @randuir, @Young Bard, @Elandera, do any of you have some last minute thoughts? 

[Eternum he/him]

Hello, everyone. So I just woke up. As Rand said, depending on the elim kill, this is either LyLo, coinflip or village win. (Depends.)

I personally think we need to focus on killing the convert. It's more important to keep the roles to the village, and I think, seeing as he's essentially a confirmed convert, lynching Devotary will basically ensure village victory.

Gotta go make breakfast, but I'll be online.

 

Edited April 21, 2018 by Eternum

[DeTess she/her]

8 hours ago, Droughtbringer said:

So we know that there are two elims left, then? I've been busy at a competition that was not supposed to be as busy as it is, so I haven't had as much time to read through the thread. 'm going to vote on Devotary for now, as he is guaranteed (according to Rand, Which I agree with). This just leaves me trying to find a way to prove that I wasn't converted and Eternum was...

I'll think on it, I have a two hour plane ride before the end of the cycle tomorrow, but think that we should probably lynch Devotary at some point today.

Sorry if this post sounds weird... I'm tired.

5 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Hello, everyone. So I just woke up. As Rand said, depending on the elim kill, this is either LyLo, coinflip or village win. (Depends.)

I personally think we need to focus on killing the convert. It's more important to keep the roles to the village, and I think, seeing as he's essentially a confirmed convert, lynching Devotary will basically ensure village victory.

Gotta go make breakfast, but I'll be online.

 

Ehm, this can't be right. Either one of you two is bussing when the votes don't make that necessary yet, or Devotary is innocent. I'm probably going to change my vote in a minute, but I'd like to see any last minute input from @Eternum and @Droughtbringer to help make my decision.

Edited April 21, 2018 by randuir

[Eternum he/him]

I hadn't noticed Drought's vote.

He could be bussing Devotary, as then he would basically be considered village, kill a random role player this cycle, then lynch me/kill another villager next cycle to gain victory.

In hindsight, I'll vote on Drought. One elim, even with a role (if they get it instead of me) has very little chance of winning.

EDIT: Devotary

Edited April 21, 2018 by Eternum

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

You don't need to worry about retracting. I count the last cast vote.

Half an hour left!

[DeTess she/her]

I don't think Drought was bussing, as his vote was only the second one on Devotary, and based on previous actions he could just as easily have voted on Eternum. Eternum might have been bussing (as after 6 hours of nothing happening, the Devotary vote might have looked like it was already locked in), but that vote might also have been against the one villager he knew was innocent, and he actually missed that team-mate!drought had already voted that way as well. Either way, that would make Eternum an elim.

[Elandera she/her]

The votes stand at a tie

Devotary(2): Droughtbringer
Droughtbringer(1): Devotary, Eternum
Eternum(1): Elandera, Randuir

Edit: ninja'd!

Edited April 21, 2018 by Elandera
Fixed vote counts after ninja

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, Elandera said:

So the votes stand at a tie:

Devotary(1): Randuir, Droughtbringer
Droughtbringer(2): Devotary, Eternum
Eternum(2): Elandera, Randuir

Fixed that for you  

[Eternum he/him]

1 minute ago, randuir said:

I don't think Drought was bussing, as his vote was only the second one on Devotary, and based on previous actions he could just as easily have voted on Eternum. Eternum might have been bussing (as after 6 hours of nothing happening, the Devotary vote might have looked like it was already locked in), but that vote might also have been against the one villager he knew was innocent, and he actually missed that team-mate!drought had already voted that way as well. Either way, that would make Eternum an elim.

I'd like to point out that 2 votes is the bare minimum needed to lynch, and with this few players it takes the lynch-ee directly into the danger zone.

I didn't really see who voted for who, really. I skimmed the thread really quickly, because I thought I had much less time than I really did. I didn't know the vote counts until I took a closer look, after I posted.

If I was an elim, don't you think Drought would have told me he's voting for Devotary? 

[DeTess she/her]

3 minutes ago, Eternum said:

I'd like to point out that 2 votes is the bare minimum needed to lynch, and with this few players it takes the lynch-ee directly into the danger zone.

I didn't really see who voted for who, really. I skimmed the thread really quickly, because I thought I had much less time than I really did. I didn't know the vote counts until I took a closer look, after I posted.

If I was an elim, don't you think Drought would have told me he's voting for Devotary? 

If drought was really busy (which he seems to be), he might not have had time to do that. I know from experience in other games that using google docs from mobile isn't easy.

You're right that two votes takes someone straight into the danger zone, but when Drought voted you also already had a vote on you, so if nothing else him picking Devotary over you was probably deliberate.

Edited April 21, 2018 by randuir