[OB] Theory: The Shin have the most

[WhiteLeeopard she/her]

Nice theory. 

I've always been very interested on the Shin, and off the top of my head the timeline works relatively well (give or take a few centuries).

17 hours ago, Calderis said:

I like this theory, something about it seemed to be nagging at me though, and it's the timing. I still think the theory is possible, but the invasion that Gavilar mentioned was lead by Shubreth-son-Malashaman or something close to that. Blades have been bonded long enough that most people have forgotten that the gemstones were added, but the name of this Shin conqueror is remembered. 

Thing is, people tend to remember the names of conquerors and generals while they forget the timing of scientific advances. If you asked someone "Ever heard of Julius Caesar?" They would talk for a while. Yet if you asked, "Do you know when mortar was invented?" They would stare at you blankly (usually). Advances are important and recorded by scholars and scientists, but that kind of information is more fragile than the legends and stories of emperors and kings of old. 

Also...there are so many purges of information in Roshar that their historical records are always very recent. Humans basically started off zero knowledge after Aharietam. Then the False Desolation, the Recreance, the Hierocracy and Vorinism and its million lies and errors taken as fact mean that their current knowledge of the past (even recent past) is beyond warped. 

15 hours ago, Ainurromen said:

Very interesting theory. There's just something I can't make sense of: if the Shin believe the shards and the Honorblades are so important and need to be protected and hidden, then why give one to a Truthless for everyone to use as they please? 

Szeth was a respected member of Shin society before becoming Truthless. Its likely they didn't want him to go out with he Honorblade, but their customs and society dictated he must keep the Honorblade all his life or something along those lines.

15 hours ago, Ainurromen said:

BTW: Ashyn -> Shin. They sound too similar for it to be a coincidence. I think Shinovar was named something different before the First Desolation. 

You may be on to something .

Edited February 16, 2018 by WhiteLeeopard

[Stark he/him]

16 hours ago, Storms! said:

The Hierocracy was known for editing/destroying a lot of history.

I had not even thought of that.  That would definitely help hide the disappearance of the shards - either having a priest look at the History showing the Shin taking shards and thinking "That can't be right, they have no shardbearers," before destroying that document.  Or a scholar seeing the truth in a Heirocracy document and not believing it.  Both would help support this.

 

6 minutes ago, Song said:

Didn't Jezriel tell them that they had won, that it was over? What reason would someone there have to disagree?

This is a fantastic question.Maybe they didn't initially.  Jexrien said it was over, and the Heralds would return when it was time to retake the Tranquiline Halls.  SO maybe they were initially Holding the Honorblades for that.  Keep them safe, so the Heralds would be properly armed when it was time to assault heaven.  Then the Recreance happens, and they shift their view, keep all the shards so the world doesn't get consumed by war, so the Heralds can give them to the worthy when the assault on heaven arrives.

 

Then they are not doubting the Heralds by expecting another Desolation, but preparing a stockpile for the next assault that myth and legend says must take place, the one where they retake heaven.  Then it makes sense to keep an eye out for the return of the Herald's powers, and to be scared of what that implies for the world, an assault on heaven and potential return of the Voidbringers.  That would still be scary enough to maybe be used as justification by bad leaders to exile one of their own rather than face the truth.

 

As for why they send the Truthless with an Honorblade into the world... I don't know.  Maybe it is a Litmus test of sorts.  If they send out a perfect warrior who will do as he is told, regardless the order given, eventually he will need to use Stormlight, and someone will make use of that.  If the Surges are returning, eventually he will be faced by someone with surges to defeat him, like Kaladin.  Which would confirm for the Shin leaders, via their spies, whether they were right or wrong.  Of course, they could not have predicted Taravangian, or Gavilar.  ANd Szeth's defeat happened where no one could see.  So it does not work perfectly, but may be possible?

[WhiteLeeopard she/her]

2 minutes ago, Stark said:

Then they are not doubting the Heralds by expecting another Desolation, but preparing a stockpile for the next assault that myth and legend says must take place, the one where they retake heaven.  Then it makes sense to keep an eye out for the return of the Herald's powers, and to be scared of what that implies for the world, an assault on heaven and potential return of the Voidbringers.  That would still be scary enough to maybe be used as justification by bad leaders to exile one of their own rather than face the truth.

Its entirely possible the Shin truly believe they won and there will be no more Desolations. Maybe they don't stockpile Shards (assuming this part of the theory is right) to use them on the next Desolation. However, maybe they stockpile Shards so no-one can use them to destroy as they are pacifistic (apparently) and want creation rather than destruction to occur at a large scale. Basically follow your theory without the final conclusion of preparing for the Desolation, and just take the Shards our of circulation.

[Storms! he/him]

11 minutes ago, Stark said:

Jexrien said it was over, and the Heralds would return when it was time to retake the Tranquiline Halls.

I don't think this is true. I believe Jezrien said that the Heralds were leaving them to take the fight to TH.

 

4 minutes ago, WhiteLeeopard said:

Basically follow your theory without the final conclusion of preparing for the Desolation, and just take the Shards our of circulation.

I was more thinking more along these lines. The weapons were made for a specific purpose, and that purpose is done. The Shin see the world turning these weapons on each other and decide to act 'for the greater good.'

Edited February 16, 2018 by Storms!

[Stark he/him]

Removing as many as they can from circulation for the greater good, then training Honorblade shcok troops for a just in case scenario where the one of Roshar's groups with a decent number of shards decides they are a tempting target?

 

That could fit quite well.  Does not really address why Szeth was made Truthless for thinking the surges were returning, but could still be a valid alternative to the reasoning of my theory.

[Storms! he/him]

Well taking the Honorblades/starting the tradition of training on them, capturing the loose Shards and naming Szeth Truthless all happened at drastically different times, so they don't really need to fit in to some grand plan/strategy.

 

There's also a good chance that their actions are being directed by Cultivation via the stone shamans, who obviously wouldn't believe the Heralds' lies. So they could be following one strategy, then take a seemingly random U-turn because "the spren of the stones ordered it." That's the thing about taking orders from a god. Gods are like Aes Sedai, "they do things for their own reasons, and not always for the reasons that you think."

Personally, I believe that Cultivation orchestrated the whole Szeth Truthless thing so he could play his role in the Diagram, which is essentially her master plan (see link in my signature)

[Cognitive Shadow he/him]

 

 

Ashyn has been confirmed to be another planet in ‘greater Roshar’ the solar system they are in. They used the dawn shards to destroy it, and they came to Roshar begging. Ashyn had disease based magic. The three planets in the system are Roshar, Braize, and Ashyn 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Cognitive Shadow
Quote below vvv

[Cognitive Shadow he/him]

5 hours ago, WhiteLeeopard said:

20 hours ago, Ainurromen said:

BTW: Ashyn -> Shin. They sound too similar for it to be a coincidence. I think Shinovar was named something different before the First Desolation. 

 

 

[Carla Bridge Four]

I do think there are spren in Shinovar.

At the end of OB, Szeth says something speaking to Nightblood he used to listen to a voice. Because he was approaching Radiance, wasn't he?

[WhiteLeeopard she/her]

20 minutes ago, Carla Bridge Four said:

I do think there are spren in Shinovar.

At the end of OB, Szeth says something speaking to Nightblood he used to listen to a voice. Because he was approaching Radiance, wasn't he?

Thats the theory, but if there are spren in Shinovar they are probably very, very few. And there is no reason I can thnk of for that, as the only thing different in Shinovar that might affect spren are no highstorms.

Random question, do highstorms reach Aimia?

[Calderis he/him]

1 minute ago, WhiteLeeopard said:

Random question, do highstorms reach Aimia?

Yes. While the highstorms do get weaker the farther west you go, Shinovar is also protected (on both sides) by very tall mountains. 

Aimia has both ocean, which may allow the storm to strengthen, and lacks the mountainous protection as it's not directly West of Shinovar. 

[Stark he/him]

Well, I would love to see if this can be confirmed or denied before book five.  If we can still ask questions in ordered books, I will be asking something in this vein to try to confirm.  Phrasing to come later, and I'll probably ask for help from those who go to signings more often to craft the question as well as possible to avoid an RAFO.  

 

But if that is not possible, I will offer as many upvotes as I can give to anyone who would be willing to ask about this in person at a signing or a Q&A event.

[OTC]

In tWok during the assassination Szeth comments that if Jah Kaved is successful in manufacturing new shards that the whole continent would be speaking Alethi. This would be a strange comment if the Shin had a massive stash of shards and trained bearers to fight back against it. Though Szeth could just be ignorant of the shards.

[RShara she/her]

7 minutes ago, OTC said:

In tWok during the assassination Szeth comments that if Jah Kaved is successful in manufacturing new shards that the whole continent would be speaking Alethi. This would be a strange comment if the Shin had a massive stash of shards and trained bearers to fight back against it. Though Szeth could just be ignorant of the shards.

Actually, he thinks that if Alethkar is successful, then the continent would be speaking Alethi.  Jah Keved speaks Veden.  Similar, but different.

And it's about motivation.  The Alethi are very war like, so they would definitely embark on conquest.  The Shin are isolationsts, and if they only went to war to acquire the Shardblades and Plates, it would make sense for them to then withdraw back to their protection of said Shards.

[The One Who Connects he/him]

8 minutes ago, OTC said:

This would be a strange comment if the Shin had a massive stash of shards and trained bearers to fight back against it.

If they can make new ones, they can give Shardblades to literally everyone. That's how teching up goes.

Nowadays everybody's got a iPhone, before that it was computers, before that it was... and soon it'll be robots, or self-driving cars. The same can be said of Ettmetal Medallions in MB, and probably Fabrials as the decades go by on Roshar.

Large stash of trained soldiers they may have, but japan didn't invade america for fear of a "gun hiding behind every blade of grass." Shards can be hidden, and can't be stolen like guns. For the Shin to fight back, they'd have to literally kill everyone, because anyone could be hiding a Shardblade at that point. Even if the Shin succeeded in doing that, would you really call that a victory?

[OTC]

3 hours ago, RShara said:

Actually, he thinks that if Alethkar is successful, then the continent would be speaking Alethi.  Jah Keved speaks Veden.  Similar, but different.

And it's about motivation.  The Alethi are very war like, so they would definitely embark on conquest.  The Shin are isolationsts, and if they only went to war to acquire the Shardblades and Plates, it would make sense for them to then withdraw back to their protection of said Shards.

My mistake on the location. Brain not function good before coffee.

I'm not opposed to this idea, a lot of it appeals to me, but Szeths thoughts on the continent being over run by Shards if they can be manufactured just clash with it for me.

The Shin may be isolationist, but I can't see them standing idol while a major threat to them approaches and takes over the continent, if they have a way to oppose it.

2 hours ago, The One Who Connects said:

If they can make new ones, they can give Shardblades to literally everyone. That's how teching up goes.

Nowadays everybody's got a iPhone, before that it was computers, before that it was... and soon it'll be robots, or self-driving cars. The same can be said of Ettmetal Medallions in MB, and probably Fabrials as the decades go by on Roshar.

Large stash of trained soldiers they may have, but japan didn't invade america for fear of a "gun hiding behind every blade of grass." Shards can be hidden, and can't be stolen like guns. For the Shin to fight back, they'd have to literally kill everyone, because anyone could be hiding a Shardblade at that point. Even if the Shin succeeded in doing that, would you really call that a victory?

Eventually everyone would have one, yes, but there is time and expense associated with it. Not everyone was holding a half shard when Szeth was going assassinating, because they are expensive and difficult to produce. The time taken to build the theorized hundreds or thousands to match the proposed Shin stash would not be insignificant.

Edited February 20, 2018 by OTC

[Calderis he/him]

1 minute ago, OTC said:

The time taken to build the theorized hundreds or thousands to match the proposed Shin stash would not be insignificant.

Not really. The Radiants at their max numbered in the low thousands. The Recreance vision that we saw was, if not all, the majority of the Windrunners and Stonewards and that was roughly 300 people. 

There were never "hundreds of thousands" of Shards. There's a few thousand as a high estimate. 

[RShara she/her]

3 minutes ago, OTC said:

The Shin may be isolationist, but I can't see them standing idol while a major threat to them approaches and takes over the continent, if they have a way to oppose it.

Do you mean the Desolation?  Well, first they'd have to acknowledge that it was occurring....

[OTC]

1 hour ago, Calderis said:

Not really. The Radiants at their max numbered in the low thousands. The Recreance vision that we saw was, if not all, the majority of the Windrunners and Stonewards and that was roughly 300 people. 

There were never "hundreds of thousands" of Shards. There's a few thousand as a high estimate. 

I know, I said hundreds OR thousands.

1 hour ago, RShara said:

Do you mean the Desolation?  Well, first they'd have to acknowledge that it was occurring....

I meant the hypothetical army with newly forged shards thats Szeth was referring to conquering the continent.

[RShara she/her]

4 minutes ago, OTC said:

I know, I said hundreds OR thousands.

I meant the hypothetical army with newly forged shards thats Szeth was referring to conquering the continent.

Ooohhh.  Man my brain is having trouble today.

 

Remember that if the Shin have a cache of Shardblades, only a few of them would know about it any more.  90% of Shin are not warriors and would have no idea how to use a Shardblade.  They also believe that fighting is beneath them.  It'd take time for their leaders to convince them that it was okay this time, and to train them in usage.

So you'd have the Stone Shamans and their acolytes, vs the Alethi who are very much warriors, and whose officers have mostly trained with a Shardblade at least a few times, in order to be familiar with them.

[The One Who Connects he/him]

3 minutes ago, OTC said:

I meant the hypothetical army with newly forged shards that's Szeth was referring to conquering the continent.

Rshara (more than likely)knew what you meant, and was making a counter-example of the Shin not getting involved "while a major threat to them approaches and takes over the continent, if they have a way to oppose it." They seem to be sitting at home during this threat, so them sitting pretty during the hypothetical Alethi Shardblade expansion wouldn't be that out of place.

1 hour ago, OTC said:

Eventually everyone would have one, yes, but there is time and expense associated with it. Not everyone was holding a half shard when Szeth was going assassinating, because they are expensive and difficult to produce. The time taken to build the theorized hundreds or thousands to match the proposed Shin stash would not be insignificant.

Additionally, the rumors that Szeth heard are just that: rumors. And eventual rumors that they've cracked the code might be more of the same. The rumors would only start so solidify once people start attacking with Shardblades en masse, at which point it may be too late.

[RShara she/her]

8 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

Rshara (more than likely)knew what you meant, and was making a counter-example of the Shin not getting involved "while a major threat to them approaches and takes over the continent, if they have a way to oppose it." They seem to be sitting at home during this threat, so them sitting pretty during the hypothetical Alethi Shardblade expansion wouldn't be that out of place.

I actually didn't.  But both points should hold true nonetheless

[OTC]

19 minutes ago, RShara said:

Ooohhh.  Man my brain is having trouble today.

 

Remember that if the Shin have a cache of Shardblades, only a few of them would know about it any more.  90% of Shin are not warriors and would have no idea how to use a Shardblade.  They also believe that fighting is beneath them.  It'd take time for their leaders to convince them that it was okay this time, and to train them in usage.

So you'd have the Stone Shamans and their acolytes, vs the Alethi who are very much warriors, and whose officers have mostly trained with a Shardblade at least a few times, in order to be familiar with them.

I know that warriors are considered the lowest rung of Shin society, but do we actually know what proportion or the population they are? Not disagreeing with your assessment, I just don't recall reading that, and there is so little that has really been revealed about the Shi society and culture. For all we know they could have the most effective army in the cosmere, with or without shards, they just choose not to use it. Unlikely, but we don't have any clear statements to rule it out.

17 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

Rshara (more than likely)knew what you meant, and was making a counter-example of the Shin not getting involved "while a major threat to them approaches and takes over the continent, if they have a way to oppose it." They seem to be sitting at home during this threat, so them sitting pretty during the hypothetical Alethi Shardblade expansion wouldn't be that out of place.

Additionally, the rumors that Szeth heard are just that: rumors. And eventual rumors that they've cracked the code might be more of the same. The rumors would only start so solidify once people start attacking with Shardblades en masse, at which point it may be too late.

I would say there is a difference between accepting a Valhalla type event is occurring involving the worst creatures from the local mythology, and accepting that a local aggressor has developed a new weapon and is embarking on continental conquest.

Edit:

Additionally, the Shin sitting aside doing nothing now that the desolations have commenced could be because they do not have a cache of massively powerful weapons, we don't actually know what is happening in Shinovar right now.

Edited February 20, 2018 by OTC
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[Calderis he/him]

Huh. This could actually be part of why the Shin have their whole class structure around soldiers set the way it is. 

They have no issue with violence, just killing. They have a structured and formalized martial art in Kemmer. But if anyone picks up a weapon they essentially become a slave... Perhaps because originally, those weapons available were powerful. 

[ghajan monk]

I had not noticed the Shin invasion, though I was aware of theories that said the Shin had the missing shardblades.

The Shin idea that killing someone makes you a slave does raise questions of how they were able to create an army in the first place, as well the Shin appear to be forbidden to walk on stone. Given that shardblades are often gained by murdering the previous owner, it would not surprise me if the skybreakers were the true masterminds of the Shin invasion. 

On the other hand we (as far as I know) have not yet met the Shin gods, the Spren of Stone. Depending on what kind of spren they turn out to be (are these the first spren humans encountered on Roshar?) They might try to have the Shin collect the shardblades out of respect of the dead spren.

Or the Shin simply came under the rule of a despot for a time and the aftermath of his reign is what lead to the modern Shin aversion to killing.(this is in my opinion the least likely of the scenarios that I thought of but it still might have more  truth to it than my other ideas.)