Do Ashyn, Roshar and Braize share an orbit?

[Leyrann]

I realize that the obvious answer to this is no (we have the Arcanum Unbounded picture I copy-pasted at the end of this post, after all), but I'm assuming that the picture is from Khriss or Nazh, and while they are worldhopping and stuff, that's all in the Cognitive Realm, which is 2-dimensional in nature, and it might not be possible to perfectly discern their orbits from it. That alone wouldn't be enough to make me think (just because they could (maybe) be wrong doesn't mean they are), but two WoBs I just stumbled across are.

First, this WoB from October 2016 (admittedly one month before AU release) RAFO's the question whether the Tear seen from Roshar is actually Ashyn or Braize:

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/25-paris-signing/#e1755

Quote

Question

So WoR mentions a particularly bright star known as the Tear (a reference to a tear shed by somebody named Reya) is that "star" actually one of the other planets in the greater roshar system, if so is it Ashyn or Braize?

Brandon Sanderson

RAFO.

The interesting thing about this is that there has been no mention of the Tear becoming more or less luminiscent or moving in the sky. The obvious answer to this would be to say it is just a star. However, I don't see why Brandon would then RAFO the question, unless he RAFO'd for the sake of us theorizing (which, to be fair, I could see him doing). If, however, the planets would be in the same orbit, the star would not move in the sky (EDIT: It would always be in the sky at the same time on the same place, I mean) (like planets normally do; sometimes you see them at day, sometimes at night) and would not vary in brightness (as they're always at the same distance). Admittedly, however, it would have some movement compared to other stars, but only because the stars seem to move; the Tear would actually be visible at the same place at the same time throughout the whole year.

As for the second WoB, this was actually simply what pushed me over the edge to start having a look at it. It's from 2014, so two years before AU, but still I do not see why Brandon would refuse to answer this, in this case not even RAFO'ing, but straight up saying "I'm staying closed-lipped about it":

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/219-words-of-radiance-philadelphia-signing/#e6044

Quote

Leiyan

Can you tell me the order the three planets [located the Rosharan system] are in?

Brandon Sanderson

No.

Leiyan

Because I know Braize is the third one, I've heard that, is that true?

Brandon Sanderson

I'm staying closed-lipped about a lot of this.

As for where we would find the planets, I would assume that the biggest of the three planets, whichever one it may be, would be the 'central' planet of the orbit, and the other two planets would sit in it's Lagrangian Points (L4 and L5 to be precise), 60 forward and 60 degrees back in the orbit, meaning the biggest one would also sit in the Lagrangian Point of the two other planets. The only unstability in this system would be the mutual gravity between the outermost planets, and I think they would still be stable on the Cosmere time scale, also because they do have the additional stability from the Lagrangian Points.

I would also argue that Roshar is not the central planet, as otherwise we'd likely know two "Tears", one at each side, while it may be hard (if at all possible) to see a planet in the same orbit but 120 degrees away with the naked eye. It might be that we've just not heard about the other planet however, or maybe one of them (Braize?) is hidden from view to the naked eye due to something.

To round it out, I do want to mention that some basic astronomy from Roshar could prove or disprove this (as long as they are aware that the planet revolves around the sun and not the other way around), but we haven't seen any of that happening.

And, for reference, the picture from Arcanum Unbounded:

Edited January 29, 2018 by Leyrann

[Calderis he/him]

Or the star chart could be entirely too accurate and the lanes are all in a perfectly synchronous orbit and so appear unmoving relatively... 

Or we're looking for things that aren't there like we always do. 

Either way. 

[Leyrann]

2 hours ago, Calderis said:

Or the star chart could be entirely too accurate and the lanes are all in a perfectly synchronous orbit and so appear unmoving relatively... 

Or we're looking for things that aren't there like we always do. 

Either way. 

For the first option, that would only be possible if the orbits were the same size, as the distance to the star is directly related to the speed of orbit.

For the second option, that is very likely, but I figured I'd make the thread nonetheless. If it turns out to be right, I can say "I called it".

[TheHeadHancho]

Braize is basically on fire, remember? OB spoiler:

Spoiler

When Dalinar sees Braize in his Vision with Odium, it looks like a bright, blazing ball of excruciatingly hot flame.

I think the above negates the whole “two tears” theory, and also you are mistaken when you talk about, relative to the people of Roshar, the placement of the Tear as a star in the sky. The star WOULD move relative to Roshar because of Roshar’s orbit and axial tilt (which would actually be an interesting question at a signing). Braize would be visible, potentially, the entire year.

[Leyrann]

7 hours ago, TheHeadHancho said:

Braize is basically on fire, remember? OB spoiler:

  Reveal hidden contents

When Dalinar sees Braize in his Vision with Odium, it looks like a bright, blazing ball of excruciatingly hot flame.

I think the above negates the whole “two tears” theory, and also you are mistaken when you talk about, relative to the people of Roshar, the placement of the Tear as a star in the sky. The star WOULD move relative to Roshar because of Roshar’s orbit and axial tilt (which would actually be an interesting question at a signing). Braize would be visible, potentially, the entire year.

Apologies, I was talking about movement compared to other stars.

As for Roshar's axial tilt, I think the real question is "does Roshar have axial tilt?" While there's some kind of seasons on Roshar, we know that they're not related to the time of the year, so I would argue it actually doesn't have axial tilt.

And for Braize, 

Spoiler

Are you talking about the vision Dalinar gets when he first meets Odium? Because I'm pretty sure that's Odium is showing him his true self, and the blazing heat is Odium's hatred (which means it isn't related to Braize at all). Either way, the Arcanum Unbounded shows Braize as outermost planet, which would mean it would have to be the coldest, and according to coppermind, this is also stated by Khriss (though it doesn't source anything).

 

[RShara she/her]

A couple points here:

1. Brandon likely RAFO'd the questions because he was intending to put out the star charts, or because he hadn't exactly decided on the configurations yet.  Similar to why he has RAFO'd the Cosmere Timeline--he doesn't want to get it wrong.
2. Roshar doesn't have an axial tilt.  However, it does rotate on its axis.  With a planet as close as you are positing, you would see it transition across the sky during the night, and rise and set. 
3. The only way, really, for an object to not move in the sky at night is for it to be directly above the pole of the planet, or for it to be in a geosynchronous orbit.

[Weltall]

@TheHeadHancho@Leyrann FYI, Braize being a cold world is stated in Arcanum Unbounded in the Rosharan System essay; Khriss' description calls it 'cold and inhospitable to men'. As noted, the scene in Oathbringer isn't about Braize.

[Leyrann]

1 hour ago, RShara said:

A couple points here:

1. Roshar doesn't have an axial tilt.  However, it does rotate on its axis.  With a planet as close as you are positing, you would see it transition across the sky during the night, and rise and set. 
2. The only way, really, for an object to not move in the sky at night is for it to be directly above the pole of the planet, or for it to be in a geosynchronous orbit.

Yup, didn't word that properly. I was talking about moving compared to other stars. Ima edit that in.

(and then I got a bit confused myself, I meant that it would be in the sky every day at the same spot at the same time, not compared to other stars)

Edited January 29, 2018 by Leyrann

[TheHeadHancho]

Well Braize could potentially be very frozen with some sort of reflective solid (such as ice), and could be more reflective than the barren, blackened husk that is Ashyn.

[RShara she/her]

6 hours ago, Leyrann said:

Yup, didn't word that properly. I was talking about moving compared to other stars. Ima edit that in.

(and then I got a bit confused myself, I meant that it would be in the sky every day at the same spot at the same time, not compared to other stars)

Okay, I see what you mean now.

I guess this is possible, but I'm uncomfortable with the assumption that the Rosharan system map is wrong, because that then throws into doubt all the system maps.  And considering Khriss was able to draw Scadrial Old Orbit and Scadrial New Orbit, I feel like the maps are fairly credible.

Also, Roshar is not that far (relatively speaking) from Taldain, Scadrial, Sel, and Nalthis.  I feel like they could be close enough that planets and their orbits could be visible with telescopes (at this point, Taldain and Sel should be pretty far advanced, technologically).

[Leyrann]

7 hours ago, RShara said:

Okay, I see what you mean now.

I guess this is possible, but I'm uncomfortable with the assumption that the Rosharan system map is wrong, because that then throws into doubt all the system maps.  And considering Khriss was able to draw Scadrial Old Orbit and Scadrial New Orbit, I feel like the maps are fairly credible.

Also, Roshar is not that far (relatively speaking) from Taldain, Scadrial, Sel, and Nalthis.  I feel like they could be close enough that planets and their orbits could be visible with telescopes (at this point, Taldain and Sel should be pretty far advanced, technologically).

Wait, are they that close? Because I'd think if the stars are that close to one another, you'd barely have nights. I mean, if you look at our exoplanet spotting, we've only managed very few direct sightings of exoplanets, and those are almost always large gas giants orbiting their star at a big distance. If you'd be able to spot earth-sized planets in the habitable zone with, well, even early 20th century technology, I think those stars gotta be pretty damnation close.

And that made me think about another theory, that the Tear is another star with planets we know about, but then I realized that Roshar has a white star, which means it would be brighter than the other stars, and we haven't seen mentions of particularly bright stars in other books, at least not as far as I am aware.

[RShara she/her]

They're not super close, but not as distant from one another as ours are around here.  All the main Cosmere novels are set in a single star cluster in a small dwarf galaxy.

Also, I imagine Sel and Taldain, at least, have quite a bit of technology. Or, that Khriss and her cohorts can bring telescopes to the various worlds.  Khriss knows what red shift is, after all.

Both Scadrial and Roshar can also see at least some of the same constellations (Red Rip/Taln's Scar) so they can't be a huge distance apart.

Edited January 30, 2018 by RShara

[Leyrann]

That's what I get for not having read AU... If she knows what redshift is, and if it's in a single star cluster (I forgot about that one), then I guess that maybe it would be possible to see the planets from one another if you have a good telescope.

On the other hand, the pictures we do have are not to scale, and it's not hard to say that Scadrial's old orbit was inside it's new orbit, for example.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Khriss simply wouldn't expect the planets to share an orbit, and therefore looked at their climates and was like "okay, it's this order".

But let me close off by saying, this is a weird theory that has a 99% chance of being wrong, and I'm just entertaining fun, theoratical possibilities even though they're unlikely.

EDIT: What about this question for Brandon though: What is the visual magnitude of the Tear? What is the visual magnitude of the brightest star on Scadrial? What is the visual magnitude of the brightest star on Sel? Etc.

Heck, if it's the same one, you could calculate relative distances to that star. If you got three of them, maybe even just two of them, you might be able to calculate absolute distances.

Edited January 30, 2018 by Leyrann

[Calderis he/him]

I really don't think they're close enough together to make out orbits via telescope. 

Quote

eagle (paraphrased)

How close are all of the shard worlds in space?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

The cosmere takes place in a dwarf galaxy and all the worlds are close together.

eagle (paraphrased)

Close as in say 10 light-years?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

More like 50. (He went on to say that Peter has some harder numbers and that it might have to change a little.)

source

 

[Leyrann]

31 minutes ago, Calderis said:

I really don't think they're close enough together to make out orbits via telescope. 

That's a pretty clear answer...

Also would mean they're not in a star cluster by the way. So I hadn't forgotten anything.

[RShara she/her]

If you know the planet is there, its easier to find, and calculate the orbit.  Also, they should have pretty decent equipment by now from various worlds.

 

Also I don't take Brandon's non-Peter astronomical guesses seriously  when he tries to get specific (mini black holes )The closest planets to Earth are within 15 light years, and Earth is pretty isolated, astronomically speaking.  The cosmere planets are supposedly closer than that.

Quote

Windrunner

Threnody and Scadrial are both noted as having unusally bright patches of stars in their skies. Are these two planets near to one another?

Brandon Sanderson

They are both seeing the same thing, yes.

Windrunner

Does this mean that Threnody and Scadrial are part of the same system, or are these bright patches visible from other worlds as well?

Brandon Sanderson

Visible from other worlds as well. The cosmere is a relatively small place (on a galactic scale, that is.) We'll publish the star map when that becomes relevant in a decade or so.

Footnote: It took approximately a year and a half to publish the star map.
source

 

While the exact distances aren't to scale, the relative positions should be accurate.

Quote

Questioner

Will we ever see an entire map of how the different planets are spaced out in the Physical--

Brandon Sanderson

Oh, yeah, the Cosmere collection will have a star chart of the cosmere.

Moderator

A Hitchhiker's Guide to the Cosmere, if you will…

Brandon Sanderson

Now, you've got to remember that at the point that this comes out-- The collection's been interesting for a couple of reasons. For one reason, the collection's coming out before Sixth of the Dusk happens in the cosmere, right? And so Khriss gives an introduction to each world, so you'll find her introduction to First of the Sun to be a very interesting introduction that doesn't know things that you know because of that. In addition, the star chart is a star chart created by people who are not spacefaring, right? And so it is a star chart more along the lines of-- It may not be one hundred percent to scale and things like that, like they've been able to figure out a lot of things by using the Cognitive Realm, so they'd be like "alright, here's the relationship", but it will be a while before you get what feels like a Star Trek star chart. Your star chart you're gonna get in this is a fantasy star chart, which will give you the relative positions and things like that, but it's not gonna be like you can measure exactly, which we do have! But I'm not gonna give you yet. *audience laughs*

Moderator

Are you referring to Arcanum Unbound?

Brandon Sanderson

Arcanum Unbounded, yeah. source

 

Quote

mysteriouspenguin

What is the structure of the Cosmere like? i.e. What planets are in which systems orbiting what stars in what galaxy. 

Brandon Sanderson

We'll produce a map of this eventually. Right not, it's not terribly relevant. (Though in books, you can occasionally pick out some cosmological feature seen from different planets.) The stars are very close on a galactic scale--part of a dwarf galaxy.

source

 

[Leyrann]

The closest planet to Earth is Proxima Centauri b at just over 4 lightyears. Though this planet, in size slightly but almost insignificantly larger than the Earth, has an orbit about 5% of the diameter of Earth's orbit, it orbits a star that emits 0.005% of the sun's light in the visible spectrum (which we can safely assume is the only spectrum in which Khriss can observe). I do not know how that exactly compares to one another, but I doubt the detection of Proxima Centauri b would be much more unfavorable than the detection of Earth next to the sun (a good example of a standard sized planet at a standard distance from it's star), and with all our 21st century equipment, we have not been able to directly observe Proxima Centauri b yet.

So, yeah, I think it's safe to say Khriss can't either.

(for the record, even in star clusters (which actually aren't mentioned in your WoBs), stars typically have a distance of about 1 lightyear or more between them)

Edited January 30, 2018 by Leyrann

[Calderis he/him]

Until they're at a tech level to have orbital telescopes, I'd have to assume that all of these are judged from within their respective solar systems. 

Telescopes in atmosphere just aren't accurate enough for the level of detail needed. 

[RShara she/her]

Didn't we have this discussion of how Sel totally should have orbital space stations (and telescopes)?

[Calderis he/him]

1 minute ago, RShara said:

Didn't we have this discussion of how Sel totally should have orbital space stations (and telescopes)?

The one in which I vehemently disagreed with you, yes. 

[RShara she/her]

Haha.

Anyway, if stars in the cosmere are closer together than Earth, then they can't be THAT far apart.  Some stars are so close together they're in the same constellation on the constellation chart.

Quote

Argent

Scadrial - why is it absent? And is it really absent, or there but just not labeled (for whatever reason)?

Isaac Stewart

Scadrial's there. It's just part of the constellation I've been calling the Giver. Some worlds are closer together than others, so there wasn't room to give each world its own constellation.

Footnote: This is from a private email exchange between Argent and Isaac Stewart.
source

 

Quote

Karkat Vantas

Does the Physical Realm of the cosmere have more or less the same structure as our own? It's obvious from Mistborn that solar systems function as they do in our universe, but it's less obvious if there are galaxies, clusters, superclusters, and so forth. Are there?

If the cosmere does have the same structure as our own, are the Shardworlds all in the same general area (a galaxy, for example), or are they completely spread out?

Brandon Sanderson

Good question. I designed the cosmere to have much the same structure, but imagined the action happening in a compact dwarf galaxy. Still a lot going on, but far, far fewer stars and systems than our own.

source

 

Anyway, as I said, I see no reason to doubt Khriss' observations.

[Calderis he/him]

7 minutes ago, RShara said:

Anyway, as I said, I see no reason to doubt Khriss' observations.

Neither do I. I just think it was all either observed locally or gained from locals. 

[RShara she/her]

That was one of the likelihoods that I mentioned.

14 hours ago, RShara said:

Also, I imagine Sel and Taldain, at least, have quite a bit of technology. Or, that Khriss and her cohorts can bring telescopes to the various worlds.  Khriss knows what red shift is, after all.

 

[Leyrann]

11 hours ago, RShara said:

Didn't we have this discussion of how Sel totally should have orbital space stations (and telescopes)?

I'm intruiged. Was this on discord or is there a thread I can read?

11 hours ago, RShara said:

Haha.

Anyway, if stars in the cosmere are closer together than Earth, then they can't be THAT far apart.  Some stars are so close together they're in the same constellation on the constellation chart.

Beta Carinae, the 'second' star of Carina according to the (very influential) Bayer designation is about 111 lightyears from Earth. Era Carinae, the 'fifth' star of Carina according to Bayer (so still a prominent star*), is 8000 lightyears from Earth, so they're also about 8000 lightyears away from one another. Same constellation doesn't exactly mean stars are close together...

*Nowadays it appears less prominent because the star is acting a bit weird, and I could write whole paragraphs about that, but the important thing is that it was a very prominent star, and though less prominent nowadays, it is probably the most interesting star in our galaxy.