Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Ivory Dragonfly]

@Amethyst Scorpion That’d be me soothing Vulture’s vote. Also, I love that despite our constant disagreement, I’ve been helping keep you alive for a few turns now

@Sapphire Elephant No offense, but I actually completely forgot that you claimed in the trust group when I made that post. So yeah, it’s someone else’s role, but if people are wondering why I haven’t been going after Elephant too hard it’s because I think claiming in a group like that is a fairly strong sign of trust, even if they’ve made a few “off” posts. 

1 hour ago, Violet Axolotl said:

If we do have any Village Windrunners, please protect Dragonfly.  Their vote manipulations is really the only chance that we can survive the next days lynch since it appears that the Elims have their own Bondsmith.

Or their Worldhopper drew Bondsmith, which I find far more likely. If they did have a Bondsmith, they’d have likely been using it consistently to sow suspicion and doubt. Also, if we have a Village Windrunner, they just have to win a game of IKYK with the Elims. Easy, right?

Top suspicions are Falcon and Mouse, followed by Zebra, Axolotl, Scorpion, and Toucan. Slight suspicions of Chameleon. 

Also, still waiting on that explanation of weird Disciples and memberships and PM trust and what? Yeah, somebody please explain that so I can begin to interpret it, as it sounds like a foreign language to me.

[Pearl Chameleon]

2 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Lynch me tomorrow if you will. I probably deserve it, after killing so many villagers.]

Don't be so hard on yourself. You haven't been lynching villagers single handedly, false suspicions happen, and at the end of the day, it's just a game.

[Mint Heron]

43 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

 

Also, still waiting on that explanation of weird Disciples and memberships and PM trust and what? Yeah, somebody please explain that so I can begin to interpret it, as it sounds like a foreign language to me.

A long time ago, there used to be players who would declare themselves disciples of one of the four mods: Meta, Gamma (who's now inactive), Alvron, and Wilson. I myself am a Disciple of Gamma (Great Lord Urbain, long may he live). M'Hael was the Herald of the Brightness Ascendant, one of the alternate names used for Wilson. The easiest analogue I can think of is the Houses in Harry Potter -- it's not so important what House you're in but you're expected to keep it consistent and there's some mock rivalry between the Houses. The relation to this game is that Mouse claimed that he was a recurring player, M'Hael, who had been pretending to be new and thus unknowledgeable about PM safety. The issue with that is that he also claimed to be a disciple of me. Not that he was inspired by me, or had dubbed himself a disciple of my paranoid ways, but that he was specifically a disciple of me. I don't remember ever having a disciple, much less of having M'Hael as my disciple. I suspect that Mouse is a newer evil player who didn't know what PM safety was, or perhaps didn't know it by that specific term, and at some point learned it from a teammate. Then, to assuage my suspicions of him, he claimed to be a disciple of me to make me feel more positively inclined towards him, which almost worked >> In this scenario, Mouse would be using knowledge an older evil teammate is feeding him to make him seem like the real M'Hael.

The concept of PM safety is that you don't claim to others, and they don't claim to you. The advantages of claiming don't outweigh the detriments, such as the chance that the player you're claiming to is evil and will use that knowledge in evil ways. When I played here, I was fairly well-known for preaching PM safety.

Edited for grammar >>

Edited February 3, 2018 by Mint Heron

[Ivory Dragonfly]

@Mint Heron Thank you for the explanation. I still don’t fully understand it, but it does kind of solidify, at least to me, that Mouse should be lynched next cycle. I’ll look back at the thread with the new knowledge you have imparted to me.

@Pearl Chameleon I’m not beating myself up over it, just kinda annoyed that a)all my suspicions were wrong and b)people still listened to me anyway. Especially since I’m new. Then again, maybe a better policy would have been to talk less if I wanted my suspicions ignored. But I can’t really do anything without going whole-hog, so I suppose this’ll just be my play style and I’ll just need to play a few more games to get a bit more experience. So I’ll talk a lot, but hopefully the quality of that speech will improve with time. Also, now that you’re here, mind posting some thoughts on the game?

[Azure Mouse]

@Mint Heron I thought I'd used the term 'Disciple of Kas' before as referring to me, but I can't actually find any reference to it. Meh. I identify as such. Strike me down, and then you'll believe that I consider myself as such. Anyhow, you were once a lover of Wilson, and I chose you over her at the start of that game. I wrote you poetry before I gave Wilson a Name. And everyone should be disciples of Kas, irrespective of other alignments.

@Fuchsia Ostrich This, from Axolotl:

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Mouse is Hael??  Dibs on his head!

Is exactly why I wanted to hide my identity. I got N1 killed in LG19 because the town vig role wanted to try get my head for Alv's bounty.

Edited February 3, 2018 by Azure Mouse

[Amethyst Scorpion]

@Ivory Dragonfly, the amusement of that situation is certainly not lost on me.  That said, I don’t necessarily trust you more for it, since you could be just trying to keep a villager who has consistent suspicion on them alive for longer to distract our main conversation. I haven’t quite gotten that vibe, so I do think you’re playing masterfully if that is your goal and you are actually an Elim. 

I’m not entirely sure who to suspect right now.

[Sunburst Toucan]

Vanna had started paining again. She knew it was a waste of water, but she no longer cared. She had enough water for about another week, but she didn't expect to live that long. Some villagers predicted that it would end tomorrow. The next highstorm was two days from now, and that would be the only good opportunity she'd get to sneak through enemy lines. Even then, a highstorm could kill her as easily as a voidbringer, so she wasn't planning more than three days ahead.

Before she left, she wanted to finish the painting. It scared her, but the thought of leaving if unfinished  bothered her even more. So she painted, and the blank area of the canvas was slowly covered in red and black, as shadow slowly consumed the area that could have held the light of hope.

[Pearl Chameleon]

I'm surprised that no one has already pointed this put, but doesn't the removal of the vote on Mouse seem very obvious? If the elims took the vote off then they must have known we would suspect Mouse. This leaves a few possibilities.

1) They're framing Village!Mouse.

2) Elim!Mouse has a role that they highly value so they wanted to guarantee his survival for at least this night.

3) They want the village to waste an extra turn lynching Elim!Mouse instead of moving forward. This one is interesting, because there was no guarantee that Mouse would have died tonight. We had a tie.

Regardless, I very much do not want to lynch Mouse the next day. Let's not have another round like the Weasel lynch.

My stance is that we lynch someone who will give us information. I hate to sound like a broken record, but I really want to kill Toucan now more than before if only because that lynch hasn't taken off. And I really want to know if nefarious intent is behind that.

I'm becoming more suspicious of Dragonfly. In my experience at least, it can be easy to look innocent as a new player. And then there is also the question of whether he really is a new player.

[Mint Heron]

Kharsis came back from the Thoughful Skyeel with slumped shoulders and a pounding headache. When he reached Elion's house, he almost collapsed in relief. Almighty above, he thought. It's good to be home.

"How was it?" Elion asked.

"It's insane," Kharsis said. "There was this big discussion over who we should kill, all focusing around three people..." He rubbed his aching head. "There's this guy called Hermux, who said some weird things. He said he was my friend once, but I don't really remember him and we got into a row over it."

"You didn't kill Amber, did you?" Helina asked.

Kharsis shook his head. "Stormfather, no! But...I saw them kill him. At least it was quick."

[Ivory Dragonfly]

8 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

I'm surprised that no one has already pointed this put, but doesn't the removal of the vote on Mouse seem very obvious? If the elims took the vote off then they must have known we would suspect Mouse. This leaves a few possibilities.

1) They're framing Village!Mouse.

2) Elim!Mouse has a role that they highly value so they wanted to guarantee his survival for at least this night.

3) They want the village to waste an extra turn lynching Elim!Mouse instead of moving forward. This one is interesting, because there was no guarantee that Mouse would have died tonight. We had a tie.

Regardless, I very much do not want to lynch Mouse the next day. Let's not have another round like the Weasel lynch.

My stance is that we lynch someone who will give us information. I hate to sound like a broken record, but I really want to kill Toucan now more than before if only because that lynch hasn't taken off. And I really want to know if nefarious intent is behind that.

I'm becoming more suspicious of Dragonfly. In my experience at least, it can be easy to look innocent as a new player. And then there is also the question of whether he really is a new player.

You really want to go down this road again, do you?

In all seriousness, while my claim to be a new player should not have simply been taken at face value, I think we as a village have used too much discussion on this. You have my word on it, and also Beagle’s. Beagle would have no motive for lying about my identity, and neither would I, as a) if I’m lying, it would look really bad after the game and no one would want to play with me after that; b)I have no post style or “membership” that would incriminate me if my identity was known, having been so careless with it that I’m sure half the people in this game probably know it and aren’t saying anything; and c) it would just be a plain dishonest attempt to gain trust, and I don’t sit well with that. Which is kind of why I’m a bit annoyed at Mouse for pretending to be new, though I assume older players may have wanted to play without their reputation proceeding them. But they could have just not given clues about their identity and played normally.

As for your “suspicions” of me, while I’m hardly one to talk in this regard, I’d appreciate specifics.That said, you make a fairly good point against lynching Mouse. I actually see Axolotl as our best lynch right now, followed by Falcon/Mouse/Scorpion. Axolotl has been consistently suspect, and their lynch will provide just as much info as Toucan’s. (Namely, if Albatross and Elephant are fully trustworthy, so we would kind of kill three birds with one stone, and get a lot of other info based on reads/comments as well.)

Hopefully I’ll make it through the night. Also hope the village!Windrunner is winning their game of IKYK .

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

AG4/AN1 - Day 8: An Honourable Death

Aldrick had been a warrior, once. He’d fought and killed and brought peace. But when the new Desolation started, he was too old, already retired to Rennan. And so he could do nothing but sit and watch in pain as villagers killed each other over tiny things, desperately searching for the killer among them. 

When they came for him, he fought. He couldn’t not - surrender had never been his way.

But he was old, and unprepared, and there were more of them than he could fight. 

He died honourably, struck through the heart by a sword. 

And another sun rose. 

---

Emerald Falcon was killed. They were a Villager.

Day 8 has begun. It will end in 48 hours, at 10pm GMT on the 4th February. 

Player List
1. Amethyst Scorpion
2. Azure Mouse
3. Amber Vulture - Villager
4. Charcoal Hyena - Cannoc - Villager
5. Chartreuse Penguin - Villager
6. Coral Swan - Elyle - Village Lightweaver
7. Cream Tuatara - Villager
8. Emerald Falcon - Aldrick - Villager
9. Fuschia Ostrich
10. Indigo Weasel - Village Elsecaller
11. Ivory Dragonfly - Nolan
12. Magenta Albatross
13. Mauve Crocodile
14. Melon Dingo - Quentisan - Village Edgedancer
15. Mint Heron
16. Onyx Flamingo - Squawk - Village Lightweaver
17. Opal Lion - Villager
18. Oxblood Beagle - Jai - Village Willshaper
19. Pearl Chameleon
20. Plum Rhinoceros - Villager
21. Quartz Zebra
22. Saffron Iguana - Emalia - Village Lightweaver
23. Sage Kangaroo
24. Salmon Meerkat - Village Bondsmith
25. Sapphire Elephant
26. Scarlet Octopus - Village Edgedancer 
27. Sunburst Toucan - Vanna
28. Taupe Gecko - Villager
29. Turquoise Gorilla - Village Dustbringer
30. Violet Axolotl

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Our villager: Elim ratio is currently either 7:6 or 8:5. Don’t like our odds much either way. 

Looked back over Falcon’s posts. Nothing much in them, consistent with all the other players the Elims have been hitting. Had suspicions of Scorpion though. 

I don’t trust anyone in this game except myself. I had a post prepped about why we should lynch Axolotl, but then I went and look backed through their stuff and got a village feel. Did the same thing for Falcon and got a stronger Elim feel, and was almost ready to post, but then he died. Redo analysis. 

Honestly I don’t see Heron and Mouse as both Elims, as the conflict doesn’t look staged to me, but either lynch is a fairly risky proposition. However, I think I’ll have to push the lynch on Mouse. I think the Elims are beating us in a game of IKYK here. They take a vote off Mouse to save him. We all go “Mouse is Elim!” for a while. Then, someone will see the “obvious” fact that the Elims were just trying to frame Mouse, and we all go “oh that makes much more sense, I’ll keep an eye on him” and move on. But Mouse seems legitimately evil. Part of this is that I don’t like his new player soft-claim that turned out to be false, but part of it is that I feel that under all the “useful” analysis, Mouse is an Elim.

Note: I am in no way committed to this particular lynch. If someone has a better case against someone else, I’d rather lynch them if they’re more likely to be Elim. We can’t lynch a villager now, or we lose. We’ve probably already lost, but as I said before I’m making as much of a last stand as I can.

Also still suspicious of (mainly) Axolotl and Zebra. If either candidate is up for lynch, I will likely support it. Though, come to think of it, we may have a new Zebra now...

Edit: Never voted. Mouse

Edited February 3, 2018 by Ivory Dragonfly

[Sapphire Elephant]

Mouse

Unless there's good reason to believe that the Bondsmith soothe on you was not an Elim move to save you, this is our best chance to find an evil player, I think.

[Pearl Chameleon]

Quote

In all seriousness, while my claim to be a new player should not have simply been taken at face value, I think we as a village have used too much discussion on this.

@Ivory Dragonfly With all due respect, your alignment hasn't been discussed much at all. The majority of players had a strong village read on you through out the game and that's still the case.

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You have my word on it, and also Beagle’s. Beagle would have no motive for lying about my identity

Beagle may have been a villager but that doesn't mean that he was right about your identity nor does it mean that he wouldn't lie about your identity if you asked him to.

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a) if I’m lying, it would look really bad after the game and no one would want to play with me after that

I really don't think this is true. This is an anonymous game, and, for some, part of the fun is guessing who other players are and pretending to be someone else. It was explicitly mentioned that you're allowed to claim to be a player on day 1, so I'm not sure how lying about your identity would be bad sportsmanship.

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b)I have no post style or “membership” that would incriminate me if my identity was known, having been so careless with it that I’m sure half the people in this game probably know it and aren’t saying anything

People can use playstyles different to what they have used in the past. I'm not understanding the second part of this sentence though.

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c) it would just be a plain dishonest attempt to gain trust, and I don’t sit well with that.

So this is fair and all, but you do realize that dishonest attempts to gain trust is basically what elims do, right? Which I believe you may be.

Quote

In all seriousness, while my claim to be a new player should not have simply been taken at face value, I think we as a village have used too much discussion on this.

That's fair. To be honest, my suspicion of you wasn't strong, it's just something that I can feel building slowly but surely. The village hasn't lynched a single elim so I'm suspicious that the elims have been driving the discussion, of which you have been at the forefront. The village has, more or less, decided that you're village, and the village doesn't have the best track record of recognizing elims or villagers. Mouse revealing his identity made me think a bit more about faking identities. I was reminded of a game I played where no one suspected me as an elim, and I think that partly had to do with my newness. From what I can remember, I somewhat let my posts sound like the posts of a newbie, which worked because I was new. It also lets you post any argument and others are less likely to judge your villageness from it. Some false arguments are elims trying to mislead the village. Some are villagers who've made a mistake, which becomes less likely with experience,

I admit that some of these reasons aren't strong, but put together, they're giving me a bad gut read right now. I would say that you went from strong village to neutral for me.

 

I'll see if I can do some analysis tomorrow. If there are 5/6 elims (though a small part of me hopes we've all estimated wrong), then we should have hit one by now just by probability. It might be worth looking at who's been influencing lynch discussion.

[Mint Heron]

For reference, here's the final vote tally of Day Seven, before vote manipulation:
Vulture (4): Nolan (Dragonfly)<1>, Scorpion <1>, Nolan <3>, Kangaroo <1>, Falcon <1>, Albatross <2>
Scorpion (4): Mouse <1>, Toucan <1>, Vulture <1>, Elephant <1>, Mouse <3>
Crocodile (0): Nolan <2>
Mouse (4): Kharsis (Heron) <1>, Ostrich <1>, Falcon <2>, Axolotl <1>, Kharsis <3>
Vanna (Toucan) (1): Chameleon <1>, Albatross <1>
Aldrick (Falcon) (0): Mouse <2>
Elephant (0): Kharsis <2>

It looks like these are our possible scenarios for what happened Day Seven:

[SCENARIO 1]: Sympathiser Mouse and village Scorpion

In this case, the Sympathisers would have sought to move the lynch away from Mouse. Albatross would be more likely to be village, since he made the tie a three-way one instead of breaking it. Since it was so close to rollover, he could be reasonably sure that the lynch would be on whoever he put it on. It's possible that the Sympathisers didn't want to reveal themselves that obviously, but a last-minute vote-switch like that is both high-profile and ineffective. Making the tie a three-way instead of a two-way would have only reduced Mouse's chance of death by 1/6, and there was very little chance of someone else placing a vote on Scorpion or Vulture afterwards to ensure a non-Mouse lynch. Ostrich would also be more likely to be village, even though his (expressed) reasoning was rather shoddy. Axolotl would be more likely to be village for placing a vote on Mouse that created a three-way tie.

We had two vote manipulations, where one vote was taken off of Scorpion and Mouse each. Nolan claimed that he Soothed a vote off of Scorpion. Since nobody has counterclaimed, I'll assume that it is true, which makes Nolan more likely to be village. The lynch after only the Mouse Soothe would have been at Vulture (4) and Scorpion (4), which makes it far more likely that the Soothe was made by a Sympathiser, as it would have left a tie between two villagers if not for Nolan's Soothe.

[SCENARIO 2]: Village Mouse and Sympathiser Scorpion

Albatross would also be more likely to be village, for the same reason as in Scenario 1. Nolan (Dragonfly) looks slightly because of his defence of Scorpion, where he went through the rationale behind Scorpion suspicions and dismissed them, and for removing a vote from Scorpion. Axolotl looks slightly more evil because he made the lynch a three-way tie. Voting on Mouse to broaden the tie instead of breaking the tie by pushing the Vulture lynch would have been less suspicious if the Scorpion lynch went through, but also less likely to save Scorpion.

Similar to Scenario 1, the lynch after only the Mouse Soothe would have been at Vulture (4) and Scorpion (4). Assuming Nolan is a villager, it's much more likely that the Mouse Soothe was made by a villager, since it would have left Scorpion with a 1/2 chance of dying if not for Nolan's Soothe. Assuming Nolan is a Sympathiser, then the Mouse Soother could plausibly be a Sympathiser, because the Sympathisers would know that after the two Soothes Vulture would be lynched.

[SCENARIO 3]: Village Mouse and village Scorpion

None of the votes on the three major lynch trains would be very indicative, since the Sympathisers wouldn't care that much who wound up dead. The Mouse Soothe might have been done by a villager, but it also might have been done by a Sympathiser. In this case, the Sympathisers would have Soothed a vote off of Mouse in order to cast suspicion on him.

[SCENARIO 4]: Sympathiser Mouse and Sympathiser Scorpion

Albatross would be more likely to be evil, because his action could have been a last-ditch attempt to save Mouse and Scorpion. Kangaroo's vote would look much worse. Chameleon would look slightly more suspicious for providing an alternate lynch in the form of Toucan.

Note: I made the assumption that since we have no PMs, no communication or coordination could happen between Nolan and the Mouse Soother unless they were both Sympathisers. Unless otherwise stated I also assumed that Mouse Soother would have manipulated the votes as if they would be the only one to do any manipulation.

If you were the one to Soothe a vote off of Mouse, please step forward. Knowing your identity will help the village tremendously. If nobody steps forward by the end of this Day, I will assume that you are a Sympathiser.

Edit, because I forgot to put this in here: a lot of my argument against Mouse hinges on the inconsistency between being (seemingly?) unaware of what PM safety was Day One and then being able to explain it to someone much later in the game. However, if Mouse is M'Hael, that's not indicative of his alignment anymore. I don't want to break the rules by asking M'Hael for information that only he would know that an imposter couldn't possibly dig up, so I'm approaching this from a different angle, as can be seen by the above wall of text

Edited February 4, 2018 by Mint Heron

[Ivory Dragonfly]

1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

@Ivory Dragonfly With all due respect, your alignment hasn't been discussed much at all. The majority of players had a strong village read on you through out the game and that's still the case.

Beagle may have been a villager but that doesn't mean that he was right about your identity nor does it mean that he wouldn't lie about your identity if you asked him to.

I really don't think this is true. This is an anonymous game, and, for some, part of the fun is guessing who other players are and pretending to be someone else. It was explicitly mentioned that you're allowed to claim to be a player on day 1, so I'm not sure how lying about your identity would be bad sportsmanship.

People can use playstyles different to what they have used in the past. I'm not understanding the second part of this sentence though.

So this is fair and all, but you do realize that dishonest attempts to gain trust is basically what elims do, right? Which I believe you may be.

That's fair. To be honest, my suspicion of you wasn't strong, it's just something that I can feel building slowly but surely. The village hasn't lynched a single elim so I'm suspicious that the elims have been driving the discussion, of which you have been at the forefront. The village has, more or less, decided that you're village, and the village doesn't have the best track record of recognizing elims or villagers. Mouse revealing his identity made me think a bit more about faking identities. I was reminded of a game I played where no one suspected me as an elim, and I think that partly had to do with my newness. From what I can remember, I somewhat let my posts sound like the posts of a newbie, which worked because I was new. It also lets you post any argument and others are less likely to judge your villageness from it. Some false arguments are elims trying to mislead the village. Some are villagers who've made a mistake, which becomes less likely with experience,

I admit that some of these reasons aren't strong, but put together, they're giving me a bad gut read right now. I would say that you went from strong village to neutral for me.

 

I'll see if I can do some analysis tomorrow. If there are 5/6 elims (though a small part of me hopes we've all estimated wrong), then we should have hit one by now just by probability. It might be worth looking at who's been influencing lynch discussion.

It’s not necessarily the lying about the identity that bugs me, just that people claiming to be new when they aren’t just to deflect suspicion seems kinda like a cheap move. Which is why I’ve told people to look at my posts without thinking in the back of their minds that I’m a new player, so they can objectively judge it. I don’t like people overlooking and/or justifying suspicious activity on my part just on the basis that I am new.

The second part was poorly structured, sorry. Essentially, anyone who played LG41 and read the ending thread probably knows who I am. And for those who didn’t, you can go right over there now and discover my identity if you want. It won’t give you any info at all, but if you’re curious...*shrug*

Again, fine with lying to establish trust as an Elim(that’s kind of the point), but this kind of lying seems unfair to me. Might just be a personal thing, so sorry if it’s clouding my judgement, but something about me does not like people who are experienced pretending to be new. Again, just feels like a bit of a cheap maneuver. 

I completely understand where you’re coming from on this. To be honest, if I wasn’t myself, I’d have been pushing a lynch on Ivory Dragonfly two cycles ago. Forefront of several lynches, misleading discussion, tampering with votes. The fact remains that my misguided analysis has likely helped the Elims more than it has hurt them, though through no intention of my own. I kind of wish that someone like Orlok or Wilson was actually playing this game, as they would have similar levels of activity but also a ton more experience and could likely shoot down my naïve comments before they went and lynched someone. I just don’t have the experience to lead a village in something this big, but ended up doing so anyway merely due to the fact that I’m an incredibly frequent poster (when I can be). That’s something that’s not likely to go away. I’m also too trusting. This’ll likely slowly disappear with time as multiple people backstab me the more games I play, but it’s not going to go away that quickly. So yeah, my playstyle simultaneously puts me in a role for the village where I’m one of the key voices in making important decisions, but also gives me none of the necessary tools to make those decisions. At least yet. For now, all I can do is say that I’m a villager who’s made some pretty poor choices. Whether or not you believe me is up to you. 

The driver of discussion I think might be Sympathiser is Zebra. We probably have a new Zebra, who can’t explain any of what old Zebra was doing, but old Zebra was fairly well trusted, without any dissent, which is raising a few red flags. Other than myself, I don’t think anyone’s questioned his villagerness all game, whereas I did have a few challenges to my alignment(Swan, Flamingo, Scorpion, and now you). An Elim!Zebra would be a great asset, leading the village in the wrong direction and subtly influencing everyone’s perspective. Also, the length of time he spent on the Beagle group, two of the three core members of which are now confirmed village, is suspicious to me. It seems like he was trying to divert lynch discussion for a few cycles, and given his sudden backing-out right before Beagle’s death, his actions read Elim to me, even if his tone and words do not.

1 hour ago, Mint Heron said:

For reference, here's the final vote tally of Day Seven, before vote manipulation:
Vulture (4): Nolan (Dragonfly)<1>, Scorpion <1>, Nolan <3>, Kangaroo <1>, Falcon <1>, Albatross <2>
Scorpion (4): Mouse <1>, Toucan <1>, Vulture <1>, Elephant <1>, Mouse <3>
Crocodile (0): Nolan <2>
Mouse (4): Kharsis (Heron) <1>, Ostrich <1>, Falcon <2>, Axolotl <1>, Kharsis <3>
Vanna (Toucan) (1): Chameleon <1>, Albatross <1>
Aldrick (Falcon) (0): Mouse <2>
Elephant (0): Kharsis <2>

It looks like these are our possible scenarios for what happened Day Seven:

[SCENARIO 1]: Sympathiser Mouse and village Scorpion

In this case, the Sympathisers would have sought to move the lynch away from Mouse. Albatross would be more likely to be village, since he made the tie a three-way one instead of breaking it. Since it was so close to rollover, he could be reasonably sure that the lynch would be on whoever he put it on. It's possible that the Sympathisers didn't want to reveal themselves that obviously, but a last-minute vote-switch like that is both high-profile and ineffective. Making the tie a three-way instead of a two-way would have only reduced Mouse's chance of death by 1/6, and there was very little chance of someone else placing a vote on Scorpion or Vulture afterwards to ensure a non-Mouse lynch. Ostrich would also be more likely to be village, even though his (expressed) reasoning was rather shoddy. Axolotl would be more likely to be village for placing a vote on Mouse that created a three-way tie.

We had two vote manipulations, where one vote was taken off of Scorpion and Mouse each. Nolan claimed that he Soothed a vote off of Scorpion. Since nobody has counterclaimed, I'll assume that it is true, which makes Nolan more likely to be village. The lynch after only the Mouse Soothe would have been at Vulture (4) and Scorpion (4), which makes it far more likely that the Soothe was made by a Sympathiser, as it would have left a tie between two villagers if not for Nolan's Soothe.

[SCENARIO 2]: Village Mouse and Sympathiser Scorpion

Albatross would also be more likely to be village, for the same reason as in Scenario 1. Nolan (Dragonfly) looks slightly because of his defence of Scorpion, where he went through the rationale behind Scorpion suspicions and dismissed them, and for removing a vote from Scorpion. Axolotl looks slightly more evil because he made the lynch a three-way tie. Voting on Mouse to broaden the tie instead of breaking the tie by pushing the Vulture lynch would have been less suspicious if the Scorpion lynch went through, but also less likely to save Scorpion.

Similar to Scenario 1, the lynch after only the Mouse Soothe would have been at Vulture (4) and Scorpion (4). Assuming Nolan is a villager, it's much more likely that the Mouse Soothe was made by a villager, since it would have left Scorpion with a 1/2 chance of dying if not for Nolan's Soothe. Assuming Nolan is a Sympathiser, then the Mouse Soother could plausibly be a Sympathiser, because the Sympathisers would know that after the two Soothes Vulture would be lynched.

[SCENARIO 3]: Village Mouse and village Scorpion

None of the votes on the three major lynch trains would be very indicative, since the Sympathisers wouldn't care that much who wound up dead. The Mouse Soothe might have been done by a villager, but it also might have been done by a Sympathiser. In this case, the Sympathisers would have Soothed a vote off of Mouse in order to cast suspicion on him.

[SCENARIO 4]: Sympathiser Mouse and Sympathiser Scorpion

Albatross would be more likely to be evil, because his action could have been a last-ditch attempt to save Mouse and Scorpion. Kangaroo's vote would look much worse. Chameleon would look slightly more suspicious for providing an alternate lynch in the form of Toucan.

Note: I made the assumption that since we have no PMs, no communication or coordination could happen between Nolan and the Mouse Soother unless they were both Sympathisers. Unless otherwise stated I also assumed that Mouse Soother would have manipulated the votes as if they would be the only one to do any manipulation.

If you were the one to Soothe a vote off of Mouse, please step forward. Knowing your identity will help the village tremendously. If nobody steps forward by the end of this Day, I will assume that you are a Sympathiser.

Edit, because I forgot to put this in here: a lot of my argument against Mouse hinges on the inconsistency between being (seemingly?) unaware of what PM safety was Day One and then being able to explain it to someone much later in the game. However, if Mouse is M'Hael, that's not indicative of his alignment anymore. I don't want to break the rules by asking M'Hael for information that only he would know that an imposter couldn't possibly dig up, so I'm approaching this from a different angle, as can be seen by the above wall of text

Okay, that’s a lot, but I’ll get to your points concerning me. First, I’d like to clarify why I Soothed/Bondsmithed Vulture’s vote. It was done 12 hours prior to the close of the cycle. So is everything I do on weekdays, including casting my vote and offering analysis. I’m not home in time to vote/change my soothe target before rollover, so when I was suspicious of Vulture I decided that I didn’t want her self-preservation vote to get in the way of the lynch. Also, I didn’t like her non-reasoning on Scorpion.

Scorpion is a strange case. While his posts are being interpreted as suspicious, I’d like to point out it’s the same variety of posts that we lynched Tuatara and Weasel for. We got nothing there either. So I think “suspicious” players like him can be left alone for now, and dealt with later if they’re obviously Elim. We need to be going for the more undercover Elims at this point in the game. Not defending him, really, just saying that I don’t see much of a rationale behind those advocating for his lynch. 

As I’ve said before, I think the Bondsmithed vote is a Worldhopper drawing Cohesion. That Worldhopper has been proven time and again to be likely Elim. I doubt they’ll come forward, and if they do, don’t trust them. 

Heron, you’re one of the few people I have a semblance of trust in right now. What are your thoughts on the lynch itself? Will you be voting Mouse, or someone else? I’d love to hear another perspective on this. 

[Mint Heron]

19 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

1. The driver of discussion I think might be Sympathiser is Zebra. We probably have a new Zebra, who can’t explain any of what old Zebra was doing, but old Zebra was fairly well trusted, without any dissent, which is raising a few red flags. Other than myself, I don’t think anyone’s questioned his villagerness all game, whereas I did have a few challenges to my alignment(Swan, Flamingo, Scorpion, and now you). An Elim!Zebra would be a great asset, leading the village in the wrong direction and subtly influencing everyone’s perspective. Also, the length of time he spent on the Beagle group, two of the three core members of which are now confirmed village, is suspicious to me. It seems like he was trying to divert lynch discussion for a few cycles, and given his sudden backing-out right before Beagle’s death, his actions read Elim to me, even if his tone and words do not.

2. Okay, that’s a lot, but I’ll get to your points concerning me. First, I’d like to clarify why I Soothed/Bondsmithed Vulture’s vote. It was done 12 hours prior to the close of the cycle. So is everything I do on weekdays, including casting my vote and offering analysis. I’m not home in time to vote/change my soothe target before rollover, so when I was suspicious of Vulture I decided that I didn’t want her self-preservation vote to get in the way of the lynch. Also, I didn’t like her non-reasoning on Scorpion.

3. Heron, you’re one of the few people I have a semblance of trust in right now. What are your thoughts on the lynch itself? Will you be voting Mouse, or someone else? I’d love to hear another perspective on this. 

1.  I don't feel that Zebra fits the category of being really active and controlling discussion; he was last online at 11:19 PM SGT Wednesday and last posted on 4:19 AM SGT Tuesday. Besides, if the Sympathisers had a driver of discussion who was misdirecting us, I doubt that driver of discussion would be as silent as Zebra has been -- again, Zebra last posted on Tuesday.

2. Generally I trust you. I've just been trained very well to cover all my bases when I start conjecturing about situations where some of the information is unreliable  

3. We need to lynch someone because we find them suspicious, not just for information. I'm going to step back from Mouse and maybe look at Scorpion. On Day Seven I might have gotten too excited about catching something that didn't match up and tunnelled on Mouse :/ I'll vote at some point today, just not now.

[Azure Mouse]

7 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Honestly I don’t see Heron and Mouse as both Elims, as the conflict doesn’t look staged to me, but either lynch is a fairly risky proposition. However, I think I’ll have to push the lynch on Mouse.

Though obviously I'd rather not be lynched, not that this is likely a very good endorsement, but I'd not at all be in favour of a Heron lynch.

6 hours ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

Mouse

Unless there's good reason to believe that the Bondsmith soothe on you was not an Elim move to save you, this is our best chance to find an evil player, I think.

I've got nothing... The bondsmith wasn't me, otherwise I probably wouldn't have shifted my vote off Falcon, or at least not as soon as I did. So my best guess is that it's an eliminator ploy to focus lynch discussion on me to give them another free cycle...

I do wonder if the eliminators were just happy to have a 3 way tie on 3 villagers. I would possibly return to Scorpion, but now I feel I need to reconsider the others... Going to be out for a bit, so I'll do that in a few hours.

 

[Sunburst Toucan]

"As I've said before, the victims the murderers have been picking suggest that very few of them are actually laying low. If they were hiding among the more quieter villagers it should make sense for them to focus on the more active villagers, instead of thinning out the category of players they are hiding in. Unfortunately, I haven't seen anything to suspect the more active villagers, but with the death of Falcon I also have very few suspicions left among the less talkative." Vanna sighed. She could see pattern pointing one way, but that didn't help anyone much of she couldn't give reasons to suspect the people the pattern pointed at.

"Nolan(@Ivory Dragonfly), I'm almost tempted to take you up on the offer of lynching you, as I have trouble understanding why you're still alive. The less villagers left, the more important a bondsmith becomes. There was the risk of you having been protected, of course, but I have seen no signs of a village windrunner, so it seemed like it would have been a worthwhile gamble to me. Did you do anything when we could still send messages around that would make the murderers more inclined to believe you actually had protection?" Vanna shrugged apologetically. "I don't actually have any other reason to suspect you, and untill I do I won't vote against you, but I'm running out of ideas here." She was just about to turn away when an errant thought struck her. "Back during the lynch of weasel you revealed that someone had claimed to be an elsecaller to you. You'd also said that if weasel proved to be village, you'd take another look at this person. Have you done so by now? Am I also correct in assuming that the elsecaller is the mysterious person whose role you weren't planning on revealing?"

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Yes and yes. The problem is, I kind of promised that person that I wouldn’t say anything about them without their permission, and unfortunately, they haven’t been on recently. I’d also rather keep it under wraps on the slight chance that it’s a villager, and the Elims could waste a kill. If PMs were up, I’d tell you, but they aren’t. If said person returns, I’d like to know from them if I have permission to reveal their Elsecallership. And even if we did lynch them, we’d have to take two turns, and at that point if he’s a villager we’ve lost. So while we should keep him on a suspicions list, he’s not a good lynch target.

I haven’t contacted anyone that has claimed Windrunner, and haven’t asked for protection anywhere. I kinda feel that if I’m not lynched, the Elims will kill me tonight to seize the lynch tomorrow.

[Sunburst Toucan]

17 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Yes and yes. The problem is, I kind of promised that person that I wouldn’t say anything about them without their permission, and unfortunately, they haven’t been on recently. I’d also rather keep it under wraps on the slight chance that it’s a villager, and the Elims could waste a kill. If PMs were up, I’d tell you, but they aren’t. If said person returns, I’d like to know from them if I have permission to reveal their Elsecallership. And even if we did lynch them, we’d have to take two turns, and at that point if he’s a villager we’ve lost. So while we should keep him on a suspicions list, he’s not a good lynch target.

"I'm not asking you to reveal the identity of the elsecaller unless you actively suspect them. However, I did want to make sure you'd checked them again, as you seem to be the only person to know who it is, so it would fall to you to use that information to keep an eye on them."

[Amethyst Scorpion]

As I mentioned during the night, for pushing so openly to protect Ivory, and honestly because it's more likely I can get a lynch going on them than others I'm wondering about right now, I'm going to vote for Violet Axolotl. @Violet Axolotl, you didn't respond during the night cycle, can you explain yourself now please?

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Vote count: 

2- Mouse: Elephant, Dragonfly 

1- Axolotl: Scorpion

This turnout is amazing! Just what we need to avoid letting the Elims control this lynch! (But seriously, guys, vote). 

People who have commented but not voted: Heron, Chameleon, Toucan, Mouse

Silent people: Albatross, Kangaroo, Zebra, Crocodile, Ostrich, Axolotl

So this is a “get out the vote” post. Also, I have suspicious reads on the following players, and would like someone that is not me to do a brief analysis of them so I can have another perspective on them. These players are Crocodile, Axolotl, and Zebra. Anyone want to do a bit of short analysis on them? 

[Sunburst Toucan]

40 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

So this is a “get out the vote” post. Also, I have suspicious reads on the following players, and would like someone that is not me to do a brief analysis of them so I can have another perspective on them. These players are Crocodile, Axolotl, and Zebra. Anyone want to do a bit of short analysis on them? 

"Well, I can share my opinions. Zebra is relatively easy, as he hasn't spoken at all since the last time I looked at him in detail. A lot of the effort he's put into this game made me fairly certain that he is village. The summaries he provided at the end of the third day in particular seem like the kind of effort a villager intend on solving the situation would go to, and I don't think a murderer trying to appear innocent would even realize the possibility of going to such extreme lengths to provide everyone with information and get people voting."

"I'm less certain about Axolotl. I've said before that his voting system looked like a smoke-screen for him to hide behind to me, but at the same time it seems like this would be way too obvious an action for a murderer to take. Then again, that might be what he wanted us to think in the first place. I'd prefer it if he where to come out and lay out the inner workings of the system soon, because otherwise I'll vote for him today( @Violet Axolotl). There's also his suggestion that the windrunner protect you, Nolan. The suggestion makes sense, but he might have been trying to get the windrunner to protect someone specific so that the murderers wouldn't have to worry about that."

"Crocodile hasn't said all that much, considering the length of time this has been going on. He hasn't provided any reads yet on people that he wasn't voting on at the time, and I don't think he's ever initiated a lynch attempt, successful or otherwise. His response to your accusation of him from yesterday felt genuine though. As far as I'm considered, he's in the same boat as weasel was, being someone that hasn't done much to prove his innocence, but hasn't really done anything to appear guilty either."

"Now, I would like to mention that I haven't taken an in-depth look at the votes yet, and those might hold further clues. If I remember correctly part of your argument of crocodile was that he was one of the people who voted on Flamingo a while back that hasn't been cleared yet, which might be somewhat indicative. As I said before though, I don't think the murderers are trying to hide among the quiet villagers, because if they are, the targets they've picked don't make too much sense to me."

 

 

[Sage Kangaroo]

Hi guys, I was away and without WiFi for a couple of days.   But I'm back now.  

I need to read over the thread, and see what's happened while I was gone.  Hopefully I'll be able to throw something together.