Long Game 10: A Game of Shards

[luckat]

Multiple times, the Shard that has tried to Invest in him has been Shattered before they could speak. Eol and splinter were Investing him. And we need a lynch, otherwise Odium can just pick us off one by one. WE CANNOT AFFORD NOT TO SPEAK! WE MUST LYNCH. 

 

What are you talking about? Honor (Splinter) invests during the day (so the investee can use the power at night). Splinter should have had a chance to tell us during the night cycle if he got back a message that he cannot invest. If he didn't want to risk going public, he should have at least had a chance to tell Snoopy and the Shards.

 

I have two questions for the Shards and Snoopy:

 

1. Why is nobody protected by Devotion this cycle? Did Devotion try to invest in Odium? (Please let this be the case, and if it is so, please come forward soon!) Or did Devotion not invest in a suspect? (If this is the case, I am really disappointed.)

 

2. Why did Honor die? Since he is the source of two protection abilities, I would have thought he should have a lashing on him every night, even if he was the least likely of the Shards to be attacked.

[the winter system]

I got a reply from the Shardic Coalition, Devotion forgot. They (since I don't want to have to reveal Devotion's gender) said they were going to and thought they did but forgot.

[Bort]

Thanks Winter.

[the winter system]

They promise to Invest tonight. 

[Alvron]

I'm voting for Meta.

 

If what Winter says is true, then the Shards have been trying to Invest in Jain but have been killed each time before they can report their results.  How could Jain know which (if any) were Investing in him in order to prevent the reporting?  To me it seems like Jain is being set up.

 

Honor was shattered.  Being one of the few that could protect and the ONLY that could Invest protection abilities, they should've been protected themselves.  Who knew that Honor was open to attack?

 

Shards have been killed off three cycles in a row.  Who knows who the shards are?

 

All of these points (for me) to an inside traitor.  It has been claimed that Meta is clean but no one has been shown proof of this.  I know Meta has claimed to be the hidden Shard Survival.  Does any in the Shard Collective have PROOF of this?  Or are they just accepting his word?

 

Edit: Retraced Vote.

Edited March 3, 2015 by Alvron

[luckat]

I got a reply from the Shardic Coalition, Devotion forgot. They (since I don't want to have to reveal Devotion's gender) said they were going to and thought they did but forgot.

 

I'm disappointed, but it's good to have that cleared up. I would like to point out that this is the second cycle in a row that there has not been anyone protected by Devotion. Devotion's investiture is the most visible of them all, and I hope the other Shards aren't also forgetting. I hope that this isn't indicative of the Shards' investment in the game, and I hope all the Shards have been sharing information with each other.

 

Do you have a response to either of the other things I brought up?

 

I haven't been paying much attention to this game because I thought the Shards had everything in hand and I've been using the time I have for these games on the Quick Fix. Now that that's over, I can turn to this one and help finish it off however much I can. I don't have any solid suspicions at this point, but my notes are mostly up to date. I just sent off a bunch of questions to Joe, the answers to which will partly determine how I go about trying to find Odium. When he gets back to me (which hopefully won't be too late in the cycle), I'll put together a post with my top suspects.

[Feligon]

At this point, there's only Odium left (I'm assuming there is 6 OC's based on previous games) and no shards can invest in other shards, so it would not even be possible for me to have been invested by Splinter last cycle, hopefully he told the shards that his investiture was successful before he died.  If he did, the Shard Alliance can vouch for my innocence.

[Kipper]

Well, I've got to vote for Alvron then.

[the winter system]

Hello? Endowment is alive. Endowment had a list of Shards, even hidden ones. I have a terrible feeling that we do have an inside traitor but it is not Meta. 

[Metacognition]

Thanks Alv, I've been trying to hold back that information so that Rayse would lose a few turns trying to take me out and now it's out in the open. In fact, other than the Shards, I believe you're the only other person who knows about my hidden Shard, so maybe that's why I haven't been hit yet! Plus, you've been pushing for a lot of information behind the scenes and you're one of the few left that hasn't been cleared. 

[the winter system]

Jain Alvron. Why in storms did you reveal the fact that Meta was a Shard? 
EDIT: Fixed retraction.

Edited March 2, 2015 by Winter Cloud

[Kipper]

Well, Rayse actually has known about that for a while, but not a whole lot if other people.

I hope this is it!

Edit: Winter, the OCs have known about Survival for a longo time.

Edited March 1, 2015 by Snoopy

[luckat]

We are nearly there. Araris was an OC, and is now dead, and he did not hold Odium, so the data we gathered before his death is still useful for finding Odium. Most of us think it likely that there were six Eliminators this game, and we’ve killed five of them, so there’s only one left. And that one holds Odium. If we can find and kill Odium now, we win. The sooner we find Odium, the better.

I had a few questions about game mechanics that I wanted to clarify before posting this. I wanted to make sure that the information I presented was accurate and relevant. I am happy to report that most of my assumptions were correct and I have a short list of who can be Odium.

While Shards have been investing in people to find Odium, I have been looking at another game mechanic: every Shard must be active to retain their Shard*. The activity conditions include both posting at least once every three turns and investing at least once every two cycles. As of yet, no Shard, including Odium, has changed hands due to inactivity. Also, one thing that I clarified with Joe was that Odium still must remain active to keep their Shard, even if there are no OCs for the Shard to go to, so lists of who hasn’t posted are still useful, even after Araris’s death.

While it would be impossible for us to track who hasn’t invested, it is simple for us to track who doesn’t post. I had hoped others were doing this, especially the Shardic Coalition, but it appears based on who is up for the lynch that I was wrong. I have listed who hasn’t posted each turn since Odium change hands for others to see below. I do not guarantee that all of my data is completely correct, and it might be good for someone else to double check it. However, it is correct as far as I can tell. Anyone who has failed to post for three turns in a row at any point starting Day 5 cannot be Odium.

<Mailliw dies>
Day 5: Frank, Ash, Scree
Night 5: Cleo, Frank, Leif, Animus, Ash, Scree, Cognition, Lu
Day 6: Second, Animus, Scree, Piffletiff, Lu
Night 6: Jain, Frank, Animus, Ash, Scree, Cognition, Lu
Day 7: Second, Frank, Animus, Scree, Cognition
Night 7: Second, Jain, Frank, Leif, Animus, Ash, Scree, Cognition, Lu
Day 8: Second, Leif, Ash, Scree, Cognition, Piffletiff, Lu
<Araris Dies>
Night 8: Second, Jain, Frank, Ash, Scree, Cognition, Piffletiff, Lu

If you read this list, you can find several people who have had at least one three-turn steak of not posting: Sarcomere, Tulir, Luckat, Feligon, Meta, Alvron, and Ash. In addition, we know Snoopy isn’t Odium because he is Hoid. From this, the list of players still alive who could be Odium is Jain, Bort, Winter, Leif, and Pifferdoo. Due to the method I used the same list includes two or three shards*.

No other player in this game can possibly be Odium, and whichever players on that list are other Shards also cannot be Odium. I hope, with the information the Shards have of who has been invested in (and possibly who has been roleblocked) we can narrow down the list to only one this cycle. Because of how close to the end it is, and how slow and exclusive PMs are, I hope information is shared in the thread so we can discuss, come to a conclusion, and solidify a lynch well before the cycle ends.

The only player on this list who has a vote on them at this point is Jain. If it is true that Honor was to invest in him during the last day cycle and didn’t say anything to anyone about getting a message back that he couldn’t, I would tentatively say that he is more cleared than anyone else on the list who doesn’t have more compelling evidence clearing them. This, of course, depends on the assumptions that Splinter actually went through with the investment and that he would tell someone if he found Odium instead of sitting on the information when he might die.

Jain, Bort, Winter, Leif, Pifferdoo. Right now, we need to investigate each of these five players, and only these five. If the Shards come forward with their information, we will have even fewer that we need to look at.

---

* According to Joe, Endowment is exempt from the inactivity conditions because they can only occasionally invest, so Endowment might not be on my list. Also, if what Meta says about having a hidden role is true, who knows how the inactivity conditions would interact with that?

[the winter system]

Jain, Bort, Leif, and Piff, why are you NOT Odium?
 

I am not Odium because Snoopy knows my role and trusts me for it. This is the ONLY Information I am willing to give. 

I'm pretty sure it's only Odium who the not posting thing is. 

 

Why is Alvron not on that list?  

[Lightsworn Panda]

Jain.

 

Multiple times, the Shard that has tried to Invest in him has been Shattered before they could speak. Eol and splinter were Investing him. And we need a lynch, otherwise Odium can just pick us off one by one. WE CANNOT AFFORD NOT TO SPEAK! WE MUST LYNCH. 

 

I just realized that you've been the first person to vote for me this game.   

 

There are such things as coincidences in this game. I'm fairly sure I'm being set up, since I just asked Joe if Odium can kill Worldhoppers, and it turns out he can't kill Non-Shards. So Odium may be trying to two-birds-one-stone me by making me a prime target for lynching.

 

Besides, I was invested in by Dominion on (I think) the day after Malliw died.

[the winter system]

That was the day Dominion died. The Shardic Coalition was not given a report of whether or not it suceeded.

[Bort]

Jain, Bort, Leif, and Piff, why are you NOT

Odium?

Check the previous votes for the numbers to back this up, but there have been at least 2 OC lynches where I've had the first vote in. Not necessarily the first vote they had ever, but certainly on the days they died.

Due to information from recent events, I'd like to change my vote from Feligon to Alvron.

Edited March 2, 2015 by Bort

[luckat]

Why is Alvron not on that list?  

 

Alvron is not on that list because he has failed to post for at least three turns in a row after Mail died: Day 7, Night 7, Day 8 and Night 8. He is "Second" on my earlier list because I usually keep track of people by their RP names in my notes. I checked with Joe, and Odium will lose his Shard, even if there are no OCs for it to go to if he is inactive.

 

Guys, Alvron isn't Odium. Stop voting for him!

[Bort]

Is it three turns or cycles? You only have 2 days there. If it is cycles then it could still be him.

[luckat]

From Joe's rules:
 

If a Shard fails to invest two cycles in a row, or fails to post 3 turns in a row, the Shardholder will drop their Shard, and Endowment gets to choose a new Shardholder. This shard is not shattered, and can still invest. This rule is to prevent inactives from wasting shards.

 

It is turns, not cycles. It applies to every shard except for Endowment (Joe made that note when I asked the questions). Joe said that I was understanding it correctly when I asked if he meant a consecutive night-day-night or day-night-day.

[the winter system]

Alvron. Leif. 

[Tulir]

I'm voting for Meta.

 

If what Winter says is true, then the Shards have been trying to Invest in Jain but have been killed each time before they can report their results.  How could Jain know which (if any) were Investing in him in order to prevent the reporting?  To me it seems like Jain is being set up.

 

Honor was shattered.  Being one of the few that could protect and the ONLY that could Invest protection abilities, they should've been protected themselves.  Who knew that Honor was open to attack?

 

Shards have been killed off three cycles in a row.  Who knows who the shards are?

 

All of these points (for me) to an inside traitor.  It has been claimed that Meta is clean but no one has been shown proof of this.  I know Meta has claimed to be the hidden Shard Survival.  Does any in the Shard Collective have PROOF of this?  Or are they just accepting his word?

So, this is enough for me to vote for you, because it is terrible to reveal information like that casually, but luckat made some excellent points, so I am going to assume this was a mistake.

 

*good analysis*

From Joe's rules:

 

 

It is turns, not cycles. It applies to every shard except for Endowment (Joe made that note when I asked the questions). Joe said that I was understanding it correctly when I asked if he meant a consecutive night-day-night or day-night-day.

Thanks for this, luckat, good thinking.  I am going to trust that Winter isn't Odium, because of previous cycles, so as of now, I am going to vote for Bort.  Who knows, maybe luckat is Odium.

Edited March 2, 2015 by Tulir

[Kipper]

I'll tentatively retract my vote for Alvron, per luckat's numbers. Thanks, btw!

And Winter, the fact that Jain knows he was Invested implies that the Investment did, in fact, go through.

[Alvron]

So, this is enough for me to vote for you, because it is terrible to reveal information like that casually, but luckat made some excellent points, so I am going to assume this was a mistake.ho knows, maybe luckat is Odium.

It wasn't a mistake.  Snoopy revealed to me in a PM we had with Araris that Meta was the hidden Shard therefore Team Rayse already knew and has known for quite some time.

 

I revealed it in thread in order to get some information flowing.  As Meta pointed out I have been trying to pry info from the Collective for a while now.  Getting a stone to bleed is easier than finding out how many Shards invested during any given cycle.

 

I also wanted to see just how many people jumped on the 'kill Alv' bandwagon and who stood up in my defence.  I must admit that having Snoopy vote for me when he was the one to give me and Araris the information hurts a bit.

[Kipper]

In my defence, I have said over and over that Meta is innocent. It seems suspicious when you vote for him.