Just how rare are Twinborn and Compounders in AoL? (AKA fun with statistical mathematics)

[Kaymyth she/her]

You know, watching the two of you go back and forth has been rather fascinating.  I feel like I dropped an argument bomb and then fled the scene.

 

This does give me an idea on how to adjust the scene, though sort of off in another direction.  Friend #2 is as like as not to just start talking up freaks as being cool, and then question Friend #1's math just to get a rise out of her.

 

You know, I used to think that all that talk about characters having their own voices and going off and doing their own things without your permission was just authorial hyperbole.  Then I started writing this thing.  It's like I broke through a barrier in my brain and found a gooey delicious center of insanity inside.  And it's trying to convince me that if I reach down in there far enough, I'll pull out a prize.

[Kaymyth she/her]

Resurrecting this thread because I got a solid answer from Brandon about this last night.

 

Straight WoB:  the numbers in the AoL MAG supplement are off.  He said that they're not terrible, but they definitely are shown as somewhat more common than they really are.  But he also said that they're not nearly as rare as people seem to think; for example, he stated that virtually everyone would know at least one Coinshot.  So there are definitely a lot of Allomancers around.

 

And the occurrence of Twinborn would not be a normal statistical spread (alas).  As folks opined before in this thread, the Terris folk do tend to keep somewhat to themselves, so there's not a huge amount of population mix.  So Twinborn will be rarer.

 

I did point out that there had to be some mix, else we'd be seeing full Feruchemists around, and to that he mostly just smiled and looked mysterious.  As he does.  And then he proceeded to trounce me in a game of Magic.

[Kestrel she/her]

For all that work, you get an upvote. I would never have the patience to do that.

[Kaymyth she/her]

For all that work, you get an upvote. I would never have the patience to do that.

 

I'm a nerd.  It might be work, but it's fun work.

[king of nowhere]

Resurrecting this thread because I got a solid answer from Brandon about this last night.

 

Straight WoB:  the numbers in the AoL MAG supplement are off.  He said that they're not terrible, but they definitely are shown as somewhat more common than they really are.  But he also said that they're not nearly as rare as people seem to think; for example, he stated that virtually everyone would know at least one Coinshot.  So there are definitely a lot of Allomancers around.

 

I suppose you meant everyone would know at least one metalborn? because people normally know 100-150 other people, and coinshots are one in sixteen, so if there was a great likelyhood of there beign at least one coinshot in 150 people, it means there's one alomancer every ten guys.

if we assume it's metalborn, then it would mean there's at least one every 100 people. probably a bit more

[Edgedancer he/him]

I suppose you meant everyone would know at least one metalborn? because people normally know 100-150 other people, and coinshots are one in sixteen, so if there was a great likelyhood of there beign at least one coinshot in 150 people, it means there's one alomancer every ten guys.

if we assume it's metalborn, then it would mean there's at least one every 100 people. probably a bit more

Or diferrent types of Mistings are more or less common than others.

[Kaymyth she/her]

I suppose you meant everyone would know at least one metalborn? because people normally know 100-150 other people, and coinshots are one in sixteen, so if there was a great likelyhood of there beign at least one coinshot in 150 people, it means there's one alomancer every ten guys.

if we assume it's metalborn, then it would mean there's at least one every 100 people. probably a bit more

 

Well, he said Coinshot, but that could easily be a "general acquaintance" level rather than "this dude I go to work with" level.  So, most likely, everyone has at least met a Coinshot once in their life.  Maybe it's some girl down the street.  Maybe it's your second cousin once removed.  I don't know; I didn't want to push to hard for ridiculous specifics when the guy was really there to play games and have some fun with the fans.

 

Or diferrent types of Mistings are more or less common than others.

 

That is possible; while it was a bit vague, though, I think what he meant with the "unevenly spread through the population" was actually in Mistings and Ferrings coming together into Twinborn.

[Oudeis he/him]

Have you written much of your story yet? Have you published it in the fanfiction section of this site? Basically, can I read it?

[Kaymyth she/her]

Have you written much of your story yet? Have you published it in the fanfiction section of this site? Basically, can I read it?

 

I'm about 60-70k words in, but that's just the rough draft.  It'll need a solid rewrite before it's ready for me to show to anybody.  And I'm sorry that it's taking me this long; us suddenly deciding to buy a new house and up and move has derailed me from this and a major cosplay project. 

 

(Seriously, it's been less than 3 weeks since moving day.  I've been unpacking my library today.  I have all these things I want to do, but my home is in too chaotic a state to focus on any of it.)