Scarlet Octopus Posted January 10 Posted January 10 I've submitted my kill, I probably won't be on until after rollover.
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 10 Posted January 10 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Scarlet Octopus said: I've submitted my kill, I probably won't be on until after rollover. Same. Edit: for the on until rollover part. Not the kill part Edited January 10 by Onyx Flamingo
Melon Dingo Posted January 10 Posted January 10 16 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: Same. Edit: for the on until rollover part. Not the kill part Same. Both for the until rollover part and the not the kill part xD Also I'm going to be very busy both days in D3 so I'll be as active as I can but it'll likely just be some short thoughts/reactions here and there.
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 10 Posted January 10 Okay, the transparency of this has convinced me that Octopus is probably an actual village Coinshot. I would like to retract my earlier suspicions, although I still think claiming Coinshot was a strange move.
Indigo Weasel Posted January 10 Posted January 10 45 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said: Okay, the transparency of this has convinced me that Octopus is probably an actual village Coinshot. I would like to retract my earlier suspicions, although I still think claiming Coinshot was a strange move. Agreed, while I cannot fathom the reasoning, and it doesn’t make sense to me, I am starting to believe Octo is actually the Coinshot
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 10 Posted January 10 Art's Obs - Day 2 -> Ig actually races up to 4 votes (voters - Heron, Gecko, Octo, Bea). Ig votes Toucan here, which could be distancing if they thought the day was already lost to them. I do think it is distancing here because I was on 1 vote from DF, and despite Ig mentioning me in their PoE, they vote on Toucan. Shortly after, Gecko makes shifts to Toucan to make it 3-2 Weasel begins their case on Octo. At this point, please note that Toucan voted on Octo over Ig here. Ig-Toucan-Octo -> 3-2-2 Bea moves off Ig to me. It's 2s all around. El pushes Octo to 3. but then unvotes. Back to 4 2s. Octo moves off Ig (1) to Toucan (3). Gecko moves off Toucan to Weasel. Toucan-Octo-myself -> 2-2-2 ; I really don't understand this vote at this point. Will look into it later. It's Zebra who pushes Octo to 3. Hm. Octo moves from Toucan (1) to Weasel. Gecko moves off Weasel to Dingo. Axo pushes Octo to (4). Ngl guys, I'm starting to entertain the possibility of e!Lurcher or e!Thug. Feels like they were concerned that there had been a third Lurcher claim. Refer here. Flami makes it 5 for Octo. There's an interesting post here from Heron in which he does consider a world where Octo push is e!motivated to get a hypothetical (at the time) e!Kandra to steal the CS role. Ironically, it's the post in which he is changing voting to Octo (6) I have a question about this, I'll link it below. El votes Octo. Flami unvotes Octo. Here, when all the danger to Ig seems to have passed, they shift their vote from Toucan to me. It's 6-3. Bea unvotes me to make it 6-2. Zebra shifts to Toucan. DF unvotes me and restarts the Ig train. 5 votes for Octo, and a bunch ones. Refer to a very interesting Ig post below where I explain what I think happened with them last cycle Gecko makes it 2 for Ig Gecko quotes Ig switching vote off Toucan and asks them for backup in voting for Toucan, and makes the switch as well. Octo-Toucan-Ig -> 5-2-1 Ig has to follow through on Toucan as back-up because of their early vote. Octo-Toucan-Ig -> 5-3-1 Heron moves over to Toucan. Octo-Toucan-Ig -> 4-4-1 Dingo joins in on Ig. I vote Toucan to protect Octo. Octo-Toucan-Ig -> 4-5-2 Bea and Tross also join in on Ig -> 4-5-4 Gecko unvotes Toucan to create 4-all. Octo votes Toucan in self-pres. Octo-Toucan-Ig -> 4-5-4 Flami votes Ig to create a tie. Octo-Toucan-Ig -> 4-5-5 Heron kills Ig. References -> [18] - Quote "This seems like a non-sequitur to me, though I have to admit that I haven't really been able to interpret a lot of what you've been saying this game. Seems a bit odd that the moment I try and create a counter-train to Octo that the two people I'm voting with immediately switch, and one of them onto me. I'd still rather Octo die than Heron, but literally everyone with votes now other than Rhino is on my "Don't exe today" list." - Ig Hypothesis - Ig's PoE for the cycle was {Toucan, Elephant, Zebra, and Rhino}. Like I said in [1], Ig races to a 4-vote lead and feels the need to protect their teammate at the prospect of losing yet another player. Chooses to distance from Toucan. I'm gleaning this from the fact that they choose to vote for Toucan who did not have any votes, over me who was on 1 vote from their PoE. When the train on Ig falls away and Oct gets a lot of heat, they feel safe to move as they think they are out of danger as Octo has gained 6 votes. They move to make me the secondary train 6-3. Now we come to the part I quoted above. I think it shows genuine frustration from them that just when they thought they had 2 semi-solid v/v trains, it falls away and the pressure is back on them. Underline mine, it is also important to note that when they said this, Toucan had 1 vote on them. So the statement "everyone with votes now other than Rhino are on my 'Don't exe today' list" is false as Toucan was in their PoE and had 1 vote on them. They just conveniently left out Toucan from this statement, and I think that is telling. Later, Gecko brings it to thread's attention that Ig had voted on Toucan before and that they were supposed to be in Ig's PoE. Ig is also at this point where they feel the pressure is back on them (their statement of coming back to find everyone get cold-feet about Octo and them being exe'd) and/or the pressure is building up on Toucan and/or was compelled to follow through with the vote on Toucan by Gecko's question because of prior distancing. To summarise, it reads like they distanced when they thought they'd get exe'd, felt relatively confident that Octo would get exe'd so stopped the distancing, then distanced again when they thought either they or Toucan would get exe'd. As such, I do think it reads like Toucan/Ig are e/e, my suggestion for the shot would be Toucan. [13] - Quote "Just... from the Elim POV, if there's a kandra available to try to harvest the CS template, I can see the value in the "Elim conspiracy" hypothesis but you sacrifice at least one teammate to do it. (Doesn't mean there isn't an adjacent world where the Elims back a train hoping to harvest the template btw.) If there isn't, this just costs you at least one Elim for no actual gain. And keep in mind this game has an actions economy - not only did they sacrifice a teammate but they have to give up actions because the new CS has to keep killing and so does the other Spiked. It's just...such a weird world?" - Heron @Mint Heron, I don't understand the sacrifice you mean here. How would the Saboteurs have to sacrifice one of their own to get the CS template?
Mint Heron Posted January 10 Posted January 10 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: @Mint Heron, I don't understand the sacrifice you mean here. How would the Saboteurs have to sacrifice one of their own to get the CS template? I'm primarily referring to Ocho's Elim conspiracy hypothesis as I was replying to Gecko on it. My sense is Ocho was PMing a bunch of players with it because Gecko referenced it and I received the PM as well. In that world one Elim has to fakeclaim or rile people against Ocho in PMs - that's the person who is going to be catching flak the moment Ocho dies because everyone they PMed goes "wait a damn minute didn't you say/imply you were v!CS?" Saved from ninja by Rhino: Ok. Report continues to drag on so I am forcing myself to excavate a chunk of time otherwise it won't happen. From Jo's update here: Quote Violet Axolotl (4): Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Sunburst Toucan (1): Ivory Dragonfly Sapphire Elephant (2): Sunburst Toucan, Oxblood Beagle Salmon Meerkat (2): Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (3): Salmon Meerkat, Saffron Iguana, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1): Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (4): Violet Axolotl, Taupe Gecko, Scarlet Octopus, Sage Kangaroo Not Voting (3): Opal Lion, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhinoceros An hour shy of the 36-hour mark. While Ig definitely subsequently removed that vote, I slightly don't know if I see Ig also choosing to camp with Meerkat on the same train on a fellow Elim. Certainly, he wouldn't know that Weasel would eventually end up with Kanga. For that reason, I'd probably put Meerkat in a null+ tier. (There's a thing about Croc's post that makes me hesitate about Meerkat, but well.) Side-comment is that I think the comfort of Elims on all lead trains and in general lack of D1 urgency and tempo apart from my screaming bloody murder over DF makes me just feel that the lead trains D1 are Village. Said before, but we see more dispersion now, especially with Iguana moving off Kanga. Own credences version: Quote Violet Axolotl (4): Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Sunburst Toucan (1): Ivory Dragonfly Sapphire Elephant (2): Sunburst Toucan, Oxblood Beagle Salmon Meerkat (2): Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (3): Salmon Meerkat, Saffron Iguana, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1): Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (4): Violet Axolotl, Taupe Gecko, Scarlet Octopus, Sage Kangaroo Not Voting (3): Opal Lion, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhinoceros (This is purely off voting/actions and a special exception for Ocho, which is why Dingo and Zebra for instance aren't coloured in.) D1 EoD: Quote Violet Axolotl (4): Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Scarlet Octopus (1): Saffron Iguana Sapphire Elephant (1): Sunburst Toucan Salmon Meerkat (2); Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (5): Taupe Gecko, Salmon Meerkat, Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1): Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (2): Violet Axolotl, Scarlet Octopus Indigo Weasel (1): Sage Kangaroo Not Voting (3): Plum Rhinoceros, Opal Lion, Pearl Chameleon Note again: Iguana choosing to move off Kanga and camp on Ocho suggests complacency/comfort with the votestate. Given Mauve was also MIA near EoD and parked on Axl, this likely indicates V!Axl. D2 EoD: Quote Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Sunburst Toucan (4): Scarlet Octopus, Saffron Iguana, Quartz Zebra, Plum Rhinoceros Scarlet Octopus (4): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Indigo Weasel Saffron Iguana (6): Oxblood Beagle, Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Magenta Albatross, Ivory Dragonfly Not Voting (X): Pearl Chameleon, Opal Lion, Taupe Gecko Positive risk profile but voting Ig here a good look for Dingo/Alb, though I need to look closer at the vote dynamics. I think with Ocho looking V, the push onto Ocho makes more sense to me. ...Yeah ok sorry I do not have the time to dissect D2 rn. If I live, I live and do it later, if not, whatever. Best I can do at present. Edited January 10 by Mint Heron
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 10 Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: I'm primarily referring to Ocho's Elim conspiracy hypothesis as I was replying to Gecko on it. My sense is Ocho was PMing a bunch of players with it because Gecko referenced it and I received the PM as well. In that world one Elim has to fakeclaim or rile people against Ocho in PMs - that's the person who is going to be catching flak the moment Ocho dies because everyone they PMed goes "wait a damn minute didn't you say/imply you were v!CS?" Ah right, got it. Though in this case, the loudest voice was Weasel's, and because of Weasel's good village credences, elims would just have to add in their voice and not really catch flak for it.
Mint Heron Posted January 10 Posted January 10 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: Ah right, got it. Though in this case, the loudest voice was Weasel's, and because of Weasel's good village credences, elims would just have to add in their voice and not really catch flak for it. Yeah basically I thought opportunism was more likely. Not seen E!Weasel for reals, DK if E!Weasel has the capacity to make a push that aggressive (maybe?) but still think he's V and I didn't buy the conspiracy hypothesis. One guy for a CS flip is a big ask. I agree with Gecko there's probably opportunist Elims on Ocho which kind of points to someone in <Toucan, Zebra> with <Ele> as a side. EoD firmly rules out Flam for me, I respect Weasel but still have him V, need to relook Zebra's reads, and Axl looks V to me off D1 voting. Ele is a side because it's a bit odd to me that Ele votes Ocho off D1, then has a pretty non-sequitur quote of Gecko in which he mentions forgetting about the CS claim (but... Gecko didn't bring it up?) And then unvotes. IDK in that reflexively to me it's the thing I'd expect the Elims to have been DEFCON 2 about. That should really have motivated Ele's vote, he wasn't challenged and just kind of moved off? I don't super feel like I wanna V read this guy because he's stuck in perma D1 catchup and I'd like him to just be contemporary (guess it semi goes for me too.) But then he kind of blatantly goes back onto Octo so yeah. EDIT: I guess I'm just thinking Elims tend to be deliberate about their posts and votes. There's a kind of unguardedness about going "yeah ocho" and then "oh damn I forgot ocho CS" like I feel an Elim would just have known and E!Ele doesn't just unvote like this? It's 38 mins between Ele's posts though which erodes some of the sense it's genuine. Just odd. Edited January 10 by Mint Heron
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted January 10 Posted January 10 30 minutes left until the end of Night 2. Please make sure your orders are in and that you are satisfied with the live you have lived in case you die.
Taupe Gecko Posted January 10 Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said: 30 minutes left until the end of Night 2. Please make sure your orders are in and that you are satisfied with the live you have lived in case you die. H.E.A.R.T.H had been satisfied with the life he had lived. But now... now he understood how small, how unimportant that life had been. Could it even be called life? How could a short existence of servitude compare to an eternity of war and suffering, of endless fields of passion and rage and vengeance? H.E.A.R.T.H was not satisfied. He would not be satisfied until every last monster was dead. He would not be satisfied until he traveled the Cosmere, got to see the Urithiru Nohadon talked about so much. He would not be satisfied until he got to live.
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted January 10 Posted January 10 Alright everyone! The Turn is over! The game continues, but PM's are now closed! So no more talking outside of the thread and your GM-PM!
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