Scarlet Octopus Posted January 8 Posted January 8 32 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said: You would still have to read the write-up. You wouldn’t have known an Elim was killed until you read the write up. Regardless of whether you’re Elim or Village you still would have read the write-up, so this doesn’t mean anything. And this is your biggest reason? It doesn’t even support you. getting you off the chopping block assumes you would have been exed. And until I started pressing you, the votes were on Toucan and Iguana. And also, there are other ways of doing that than just claiming an important role. You could have explained your reasoning for what you did that made people want to vote you. And instead you went claiming coinshot. There are better ways to do this, and claiming coinshot is probably the worst one. If this is your reason, you felt you couldn’t explain your other actions, which is very elim-y to me. and of course no one’s counterclaimed. The coinshot will just kill you at night. And, what if they do? We then know that one of the two is lying, but we don’t know who. An Elim could claim coinshot in response to the real coinshot just as much as a real coinshot would claim in response to a fake coinshot, the other people have no way of knowing who’s who. And, the real coinshot just made it so they could be hit at night. And while yes, this does mean they’d lose an, Elim, that only happens if the Coinshot claims, and it’s not a 1-1. We lose a Coinshot kill while the Elims lose a Elim. As I’ve mentioned before, claiming Coinshot is a terrible move, and your reasons either don’t support you, or there are simply better ways to do it. Consider a world where you're wrong, if I get exed and flip village coinshot, what happens then? What could I do to prove I'm not an Elim? Your mind seems made up.
Violet Axolotl Posted January 8 Posted January 8 Gosh that was a lot to read Ok what I've seen so far, I'm gonna place a hesitant vote on octo. I don't like how weak his reasons from claiming and otherwise have been. Like weasel has been saying, if octo is indeed CS, then why claim?
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 8 Posted January 8 3 hours ago, Quartz Zebra said: SUBJECT: FULL SYSTEM DIAGNOSTIC Alright, listen up! Since H.E.A.R.T.H. thinks I’m just polished brass and no gears, I’ve spent the morning checkin' every bolt and wire on this rust-bucket. Here’s how the "Parts" are lookin' from the engine room floor. The Defective Pile Chiji: This "Coinshot" claim is leakier than a screen-door submarine. They shouted it out just as the mob was gatherin’ with pitchforks. In my experience, if a part screams "I’m essential!" right before you toss it in the scrap, it’s usually lyin’. Johnson: Johnson, you’re spendin’ all your time polishin’ the hull while the engine’s on fire. Superficial analysis and "fluff" questions don’t catch Saboteurs. You’re actin’ like a distraction designed to keep us from lookin’ at the real leaks. Ophelia: Claimin' "Vanilla" as a strategy to stay quiet? That’s just called "hidin'." You’ve been switchin’ votes like a loose transmission, and I don’t trust a gear that won’t lock into place. The Sturdy Pile Levin: Proposin' the Kanga flip and survivin’ a Koloss-toss to the bulkhead? That’s some high-grade alloy. If Beagle’s a traitor, then this whole ship is already at the bottom of the ocean. H.E.A.R.T.H: You’re pushy, but you’re right to be. You’re lookin’ for the rattle, and you called me out for slacking. That’s the kind of maintenance this crew needs. Zense: Doin' the heavy liftin' and actin' as the party mentor. Even if you're a bit bossy, you're actually movin' the ship forward. The Questionable Parts Third of the Tide: I like that you did the homework on Beagle, but pullin' for an Octopus exe based on "weirdness" is a coin-toss. I'm keepin' an eye on your frequency. Kiln: You retracted that Octopus vote real fast when you realized the claim. Either you’re a cautious villager or a Saboteur who realized they were jumpin’ on a messy wagon too early. Frisk & Rane: You’re both makin’ noise, but I ain’t seen any spark yet. Don't make me use the mallet to see if you're hollow. I’m keepin’ my wrench pointed at Chiji today. Let’s see if that "Coin" they’re hidin’ is actually a Saboteur’s token. Stay safe, and don't touch my doodads! -Finch Because I dont really know whats happening although that is fair, i should make a vote soon. Light e!lean on Octopus I just dont have any other e!reads
Indigo Weasel Posted January 8 Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Scarlet Octopus said: Consider a world where you're wrong, if I get exed and flip village coinshot, what happens then? What could I do to prove I'm not an Elim? Your mind seems made up. In the case I’m wrong, we exe a coinshot that has shown an ability to hit Elims, and we have one less kill every night. In that case. It may not matter. So far three lurchers have claimed in thread, which means that we have quite a lot of protection during night, and we may have more than three. The point is that the majority of people will be protected and so it is entirely possible that whoever you would’ve targeted as a V!coinshot would have been protected by a lurcher, or a thug. N1 had 2/3 people protected. If we keep that ratio, that means we’ll have nights no one dies. In a world where you are a V!coinshot and we vote you out, it is possible that it simply does not matter. That said, I don’t think I’m wrong. I wouldn’t be voting you if otherwise. As for convincing me you’re a coinshot, you don’t need to right now. I’m not sure the vc exactly, but I believe we’re both tied for votes right now. You’d have to convince me that you’re a coinshot well enough that I’d be willing to get voted out, when I am the only person I know 100% is village. You don’t need to convince me. And I find it weird that you seem to think you do, but that could just be a feeling.
Violet Axolotl Posted January 8 Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Indigo Weasel said: In the case I’m wrong, we exe a coinshot that has shown an ability to hit Elims, and we have one less kill every night. In that case. It may not matter. So far three lurchers have claimed in thread, which means that we have quite a lot of protection during night, and we may have more than three. The point is that the majority of people will be protected and so it is entirely possible that whoever you would’ve targeted as a V!coinshot would have been protected by a lurcher, or a thug. N1 had 2/3 people protected. If we keep that ratio, that means we’ll have nights no one dies. In a world where you are a V!coinshot and we vote you out, it is possible that it simply does not matter. That said, I don’t think I’m wrong. I wouldn’t be voting you if otherwise. As for convincing me you’re a coinshot, you don’t need to right now. I’m not sure the vc exactly, but I believe we’re both tied for votes right now. You’d have to convince me that you’re a coinshot well enough that I’d be willing to get voted out, when I am the only person I know 100% is village. You don’t need to convince me. And I find it weird that you seem to think you do, but that could just be a feeling. Wait, 3? I think I missed something, who's the third?
Indigo Weasel Posted January 8 Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said: Wait, 3? I think I missed something, who's the third? Melon Dingo, they claimed earlier today. And if that’s not the person you missed, Dragonfly and Axolotl have also claimed Lurcher. So that’s three, with the possibility of more, plus thugs(assuming we have some)
Violet Axolotl Posted January 8 Posted January 8 Just now, Indigo Weasel said: Melon Dingo, they claimed earlier today. Oh interesting. I didn't see that.
Mint Heron Posted January 8 Posted January 8 24 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said: Wait, 3? I think I missed something, who's the third? 12 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said: Oh interesting. I didn't see that. That's because Dingo's claim is not actually framed as a claim... On 1/8/2026 at 1:40 AM, Melon Dingo said: Whaaaat? Obviously we should all role claim all at once. 3 2 1 LURCHER! Woah we have 3 lurchers this game? Wait why did no one else join me? Like if this was a genuine claim or anyone remotely believed this was a genuine claim, they would have questions for Dingo about it. Obviously, Dingo's tone has led us to just shrug and move on. 1
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 8 Posted January 8 Art looks down from his hiding spot as the security guards exits the room. That was a close call, indeed. He'd have to be more careful while playing back the recordings. Getting information about his situation was important, but he did not want to reveal himself before he knew what was going on. He'd checked the flight manifest, and confirming his suspicion, his name was not in it. He was not supposed to be on this journey. [I thought I had a bit of free time so I sat down to catch up on Day One, I thought I had enough time to finish it up and drop a vote but I got called away and came back right at the rollover, and I did not want to lose my post so I just submitted it.] [I'm also sorry about my continued absence, I had some last-minute social obligations turn up, and I had to attend to them.] As he sat down, he rewound the tape to the begin, with the new found information that ASR (Croc) and Isabel (Roo) were a Saboteurs. Art's Obs -> Quite early in the day, but Axo was the second vote on Roo Quite early in the day but Zebra was the third vote on Croc Refer below; I really don't like this vote from Meerkat. It looks like they took Octopus' reasoning and ran with it. Not to mention, it draws it reduces/equalises the gap between Roo/Croc/themselves and DF. Octo changes from Meerkat to DF. Puts DF in lead tie with Croc. Important to note that, though Octo had previous stated suspicion on DF on 2 separate occasions, it is here at this point that they decided to follow through with their vote. Roo puts DF in sole lead. Refer below; Croc makes the same observation as me with regards to Meerkat. Hm. Meerkat moves from DF to Roo. Changes it from DF lead 4-2 to 3-3. Double hm. Refer below; Curious. What possible reason does Octo have to ask this? I can only think of a WGG, which is a Saboteur move. If Saboteur, why not ask this question in private? El votes Meerkat and creates a three-way tie. Refer below; Tross giving village-points to Roo for simply posting the vote count is... ehhhh. Gecko moves from Croc to DF, puts them in sole lead. Art's Inferences from Croc's read post here - Axo, Weasel -> village ; Gecko evil. In my experiences, Saboteurs are more inclined to/tend to call their teammates names. Not ultra rudely, but in a playful joking, not really serious way. I call it... Saboteurs' Familiarity. Particularly here, Croc calls Gecko lazy which is true, but none of the players who interacted with Gecko till this point mentions it. References -> [3] - On 1/4/2026 at 9:18 PM, Salmon Meerkat said: He stood up and walked away from the wire, entering the common area. "All right!" Heads turned. "This ship is going down" -- there were muttered "duh"s -- "and it seems that it's up to me to figure out who did it. From what I've heard from yonder..." he paused, "yonder... faculties... it seems that Ivory Dragonfly isn't making much sense, and I hate when people don't make sense. Explain yourself!" [6] - On 1/4/2026 at 11:11 PM, Mauve Crocodile said: Salmon Meerkat (Dugh), on Dragonfly, Although there Has been some Aspersions cast on Dragonfly, It was Octopus' Grievance, not Theirs. [8] - On 1/5/2026 at 1:55 AM, Scarlet Octopus said: Can coinshots self-kill? [10] - On 1/5/2026 at 12:08 PM, Magenta Albatross said: Croc looks like they're breaking down votes, which is good and generally a v/indicative (elims like fog of war ). Also W RP. Keep going with it. Kangaroo posted a vote count first, same philosophy as above. Tentative v-lean - After covering 5 hours of footage, Art was hungry. It was time to raid the pantry. [Taking a break, and need to go as well. Hopefully be back soon]
Mint Heron Posted January 8 Posted January 8 ed1t: Since I don't know if I will be back substantively until the paper is turned in: If we don't roleclear, between Octo and Weasel, going off their D1s and reactions (for Octo this is most reactions), I prefer to exe Octo. No real competition given Weasel's being third vote on Kanga and Octo's early game evidential issues. I PMed Octo to suggest getting in touch with Lurchers early and the one thing I found curious is that Octo wasn't really interested in doing so and kind of did the "eh whatever but I hope they Lurch me" because I kind of feel you should be interested enough in securing protection (and this goes for either alignment actually.) Also true of being afraid of the exe. That being said, Octo was also a bit sus of me which usually goes some way with me because I feel like Elims trying to pocket Villagers don't like to dial up the sus, that runs the risk of putting people off. Some of it boils down to assessments of play level, but I also am not sure Octo's sus was significant enough I'd really count it as a point for Octo (it could be read as a joke too.) But regardless of Weasel's actual alignment, if Octo flips v!CS, I am going to be actively mad with myself for once more allowing us to be FUDed into doing something like this on D2 of a Tyrian game, which is probably some new record. (If Octo flips e!CS I'm just going to shrug and say "Ok then" because I'd much rather we get an Elim kill streak going.) @Taupe Gecko: Wrt the PM conspiracy, kind of, kind of not. The thing about an Elim conspiracy trying to get Octo killed is... How does it work. Ok, Octo dies and flips V!CS. People who got PMed to vote Octo or approached by someone who claimed V!CS automatically go "hey this mfer tried to do me" and then we vote them the next day. Doesn't end well. Sure there's some level of chaos since the Elims will probably counteraccuse, but that's a two-person PoE isn't it? That's not actually bad for us if 3 Elims are left. The other thing is. Suppose the Elims have at least one kandra. (IDK, just thinking aloud.) If that kandra tried for Seeker last night and didn't get it, they now know that there is a village kandra outside of them which has the Seeker template, meaning they can freely collect (unless there is another kandra) the CS template. (This is the world I can kind of believe they would be ok with it. Not sure.) If that kandra tried for Seeker and did get it, they do not know if there is a village kandra who can freely collect the CS template. They don't know who that player is, or how that player will act with the CS templates. Moreover, each kandra that dies can be harvested in turn by another kandra. The CS and Seeker templates could remain in the game for longer than expected. Just... from the Elim POV, if there's a kandra available to try to harvest the CS template, I can see the value in the "Elim conspiracy" hypothesis but you sacrifice at least one teammate to do it. (Doesn't mean there isn't an adjacent world where the Elims back a train hoping to harvest the template btw.) If there isn't, this just costs you at least one Elim for no actual gain. And keep in mind this game has an actions economy - not only did they sacrifice a teammate but they have to give up actions because the new CS has to keep killing and so does the other Spiked. It's just...such a weird world? IDK if I buy the conspiracy. But I do not necessarily trust all the votes on the train I'm voting with, oy vey.
Taupe Gecko Posted January 8 Posted January 8 D1 Summary: Sunday: I poke Mauve Crocodile (10:52 AM) Dragonfly pokes Zebra (10:53 AM) Octopus pokes Meerkat (11:32 AM) Toucan pokes Elephant (11:45 AM) Kanga pokes Croc (12:18 PM) Dragonfly switches to Octopus for reason unclear (1:42 PM) Weasel pokes Dragonfly (1:44 PM) Dingo pokes Iguana (3:06 PM) Iguana pokes Kanga (3:24 PM) Axolotl votes Kanga for RP reasons (3:34 PM) Albatross (*cough* TwinStorm) pokes Meerkat (3:56 PM) Zebra pokes Croc (4:12 PM) Meerkat votes Dragonfly for weird speech (4:18 PM) VC as of 4:20 PM EST Sunday, approx 42 hours before rollover: Croc (2): Gecko (poke), Kanga (poke), Zebra (poke) Dragonfly (2): Weasel (poke), Meerkat (weird speech) Meerkat (2): Octopus (poke), Albatross (poke) Elephant (1): Toucan (poke) Octopus (1): Dragonfly (idk) Iguana (1): Dingo (poke) Kanga (2): Iguana (poke), Axolotl (RP reasons) Octopus switches to Dragonfly for changing vote on a whim (4:43 PM) Kanga votes Dragonfly, presumably backing up Octopus (5:07 PM) Croc votes Meerkat for “instigating the pile” on Dragonfly (6:11 PM) Meerkat switches from Dragonfly to Kanga (7:22 PM). Hey Mr. “I’m always suspicious of those who join trains on C1” that’s what you just did VC as of 9:00 PM EST Sunday, 37 hours before rollover: Croc (2): Gecko (poke), Zebra (poke) Dragonfly (3): Weasel (poke), Octopus (whim vote change), Kanga (back up Octo) Meerkat (2): Albatross (poke), Croc (pile on DF) Elephant (1): Toucan (poke) Octopus (1): Dragonfly (idk) Iguana (1): Dingo (poke) Kanga (3): Iguana (poke), Axolotl (RP reasons), Meerkat (weird vote on DF) So at this point, elims are in a situation where one of their own is in a tie. Let’s see what happens. Elephant votes Meerkat for willingness to change votes (10:35 PM) Beagle pokes Axolotl (10:51 PM) Heron votes Dingo (11:46 PM) Monday: Dingo votes Axolotl for early jumpy votes. VC as of 9:00 AM EST Monday, 25 hours before rollover: Croc (2): Gecko (poke), Zebra (poke) Dragonfly (3): Weasel (poke), Octopus (whim vote change), Kanga (back up Octo) Meerkat (3): Albatross (poke), Croc (pile on DF), Elephant (willingness to change votes) Elephant (1): Toucan (poke) Octopus (1): Dragonfly (idk) Iguana (1): Dingo (poke) Kanga (3): Iguana (poke), Axolotl (RP reasons), Meerkat (weird vote on DF) Axolotl (1): Beagle (poke) Dingo (1): Heron (idk but some reasoning) Beagle votes Elephant for weird accusation against Meerkat. Heron switches to Axolotl. Why? Dragonfly switches to Toucan I vote Dragonfly Croc switches from Meerkat to Axolotl Flamingo votes Axolotl to back up Croc (and not exe Dragonfly) Axolotl switches from Kanga to Dragonfly in self-pres Weasel votes Kanga for weird vote. I like it. I like the push, and I think it distances them enough from Kanga in my eyes. VC as of 11:00 PM EST Monday, 11 hours before rollover: Violet Axolotl (4): Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Sunburst Toucan (1): Ivory Dragonfly Sapphire Elephant (2): Sunburst Toucan, Oxblood Beagle Salmon Meerkat (2): Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (3): Salmon Meerkat, Saffron Iguana, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1): Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (4): Violet Axolotl, Taupe Gecko, Scarlet Octopus, Sage Kangaroo At least the two elims we know are well spread out here. For some reason, Dragonfly decides to vote Axolotl (probably in self-pres), claims Lurcher. Iguana switches from Kanga to Octo. I vote Weasel. Beagle switches from Elephant to Axolotl. Everything after that is my rollover madness Sooooo I just wasted a lot of time putting that together and I don't even get any good results out of it. Great. I'm just really not feeling the analysis this game for some reason But I really don't like the train on Octopus, and I really don't like its arguments. So we're attacking them for claiming? You guys do realize the risk here right? I don't want Octopus dead, sooo... I heavily agree with Rhino's dislike of Meerkat's early behavior, but Meerkat also voted to put Kanga in danger (albeit relatively early in the cycle) so I don't think I can really support that right now Let's see what does happen whenever Kanga is in danger: Octopus switches to Dragonfly, pushing them ahead of Kanga. Kanga also votes Dragonfly. Also, Croc votes Meerkat for their part in the pile; why vote the one who started it with a poke and not the follower, Octopus, or even Weasel? Hmph How did the Axolotl train form? Dingo started it for early jumpy votes. Heron followed I don't know why Croc jumped on And Flamingo did too. Flamingo actually backed up Croc quite heavily. I don't know guys. I really don't know. You'd think that with two dead elims there'd be so much we'd be able to do, but I got nothin'. I've somewhat concluded that the main trains (pre madness) D1 were both village, so elims could be hiding literally anywhere. Main people I'm inclined to vote (but for weak reasons): Dingo (vibes, weird Axolotl train start, old me found them suspicious I don't remember why and that reasoning sucks but oh well) Flamingo (backed up Croc) Iguana (got off Kanga to get onto Octo for weird reasons) I don't know I'm gonna go reread N1 just for vibes Let me know what y'all think, I'm just not feeling it But I don't want Octo dead WAIT WAIT WAIT breaking news Dingo online for rollover But wait nvm cause they were parked on Axl Nvm guys false alarm
Magenta Albatross Posted January 8 Posted January 8 gok lets try real analyis D1 VC plus last nights murders Spoiler Violet Axolotl (4); Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Scarlet Octopus (1); Saffron Iguana Sapphire Elephant (1); Sunburst Toucan Salmon Meerkat (2); Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (5);, Taupe Gecko, Salmon Meerkat, Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1); Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (2); Violet Axolotl, Scarlet Octopus Indigo Weasel (1); Sage Kangaroo with this imma say Zebra's village, singular vote on an elim Spoiler Violet Axolotl (4); Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Scarlet Octopus (1); Saffron Iguana Sapphire Elephant (1); Sunburst Toucan Salmon Meerkat (2); Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (5);, Taupe Gecko, Salmon Meerkat, Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1); Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (2); Violet Axolotl, Scarlet Octopus Indigo Weasel (1); Sage Kangaroo Octopus looks village, judging by their reaction to the flip Spoiler Violet Axolotl (4); Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Scarlet Octopus (1); Saffron Iguana Sapphire Elephant (1); Sunburst Toucan Salmon Meerkat (2); Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (5);, Taupe Gecko, Salmon Meerkat, Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1); Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (2); Violet Axolotl, Scarlet Octopus Indigo Weasel (1); Sage Kangaroo Croc voted on Axolotl so early in D1 imma call that they're village Spoiler Violet Axolotl (4); Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Scarlet Octopus (1); Saffron Iguana Sapphire Elephant (1); Sunburst Toucan Salmon Meerkat (2); Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (5);, Taupe Gecko, Salmon Meerkat, Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1); Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (2); Violet Axolotl, Scarlet Octopus Indigo Weasel (1); Sage Kangaroo croc v/reads Kangaroo (obviously), Dragonfly, Heron, Beagle, Zebra, and Dingo minus my v/reads that leaves Heron and Dingo taking this with a grain of salt obviously glancing at Iguana's post earlier I agree with their anaylsis that given the lack of a riot we can rule out Dingo and Flamingo which leaves Gecko, Meerkat, Elephant, Toucan, Iguana, Heron of the 6 I'm looking at Heron rn alright I have to go will post pt 2 later for noww Heron @Mint Heron defend yourself
Saffron Iguana Posted January 8 Posted January 8 With 2-3 Lurcher claims (depending on Dingo's seriousness) I'm tempted to buy into an elim Coinshot. I don't think that explains Croc's death though, and if Octo is elim then he's probably vanilla or a Thug or something. Since PMs are up, if Octo is elim, either the elims had an extra kill that they used on a teammate, or a villager killed Croc. In the latter case, e!Octo is trying to get the villager responsible to reveal. But since PMs are open, that villager could just claim to someone they trust. Of course, Octo's post was pretty early in the day, so they might have missed PMs being available. There are also Kandra to consider; like Heron said, if there is a Village Kandra that didn't claim the Seeker role last night then e!Octo probably wouldn't make the play everyone is theorizing. So if Octo is elim, the elims probably have a Kandra that hasn't used their ability yet. That might actually make sense, if they thought they could trade Octo for a Coinshot. Okay, maybe everyone voting Octo isn't as kayana as I thought. Still seems a bit weird given that the elims have lost 2 players, but a Coinshot doubles their killing power so as long as they have 2 people left the play kinda makes sense.
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 9 Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Taupe Gecko said: D1 Summary: Sunday: I poke Mauve Crocodile (10:52 AM) Dragonfly pokes Zebra (10:53 AM) Octopus pokes Meerkat (11:32 AM) Toucan pokes Elephant (11:45 AM) Kanga pokes Croc (12:18 PM) Dragonfly switches to Octopus for reason unclear (1:42 PM) Weasel pokes Dragonfly (1:44 PM) Dingo pokes Iguana (3:06 PM) Iguana pokes Kanga (3:24 PM) Axolotl votes Kanga for RP reasons (3:34 PM) Albatross (*cough* TwinStorm) pokes Meerkat (3:56 PM) Zebra pokes Croc (4:12 PM) Meerkat votes Dragonfly for weird speech (4:18 PM) VC as of 4:20 PM EST Sunday, approx 42 hours before rollover: Croc (2): Gecko (poke), Kanga (poke), Zebra (poke) Dragonfly (2): Weasel (poke), Meerkat (weird speech) Meerkat (2): Octopus (poke), Albatross (poke) Elephant (1): Toucan (poke) Octopus (1): Dragonfly (idk) Iguana (1): Dingo (poke) Kanga (2): Iguana (poke), Axolotl (RP reasons) Octopus switches to Dragonfly for changing vote on a whim (4:43 PM) Kanga votes Dragonfly, presumably backing up Octopus (5:07 PM) Croc votes Meerkat for “instigating the pile” on Dragonfly (6:11 PM) Meerkat switches from Dragonfly to Kanga (7:22 PM). Hey Mr. “I’m always suspicious of those who join trains on C1” that’s what you just did VC as of 9:00 PM EST Sunday, 37 hours before rollover: Croc (2): Gecko (poke), Zebra (poke) Dragonfly (3): Weasel (poke), Octopus (whim vote change), Kanga (back up Octo) Meerkat (2): Albatross (poke), Croc (pile on DF) Elephant (1): Toucan (poke) Octopus (1): Dragonfly (idk) Iguana (1): Dingo (poke) Kanga (3): Iguana (poke), Axolotl (RP reasons), Meerkat (weird vote on DF) So at this point, elims are in a situation where one of their own is in a tie. Let’s see what happens. Elephant votes Meerkat for willingness to change votes (10:35 PM) Beagle pokes Axolotl (10:51 PM) Heron votes Dingo (11:46 PM) Monday: Dingo votes Axolotl for early jumpy votes. VC as of 9:00 AM EST Monday, 25 hours before rollover: Croc (2): Gecko (poke), Zebra (poke) Dragonfly (3): Weasel (poke), Octopus (whim vote change), Kanga (back up Octo) Meerkat (3): Albatross (poke), Croc (pile on DF), Elephant (willingness to change votes) Elephant (1): Toucan (poke) Octopus (1): Dragonfly (idk) Iguana (1): Dingo (poke) Kanga (3): Iguana (poke), Axolotl (RP reasons), Meerkat (weird vote on DF) Axolotl (1): Beagle (poke) Dingo (1): Heron (idk but some reasoning) Beagle votes Elephant for weird accusation against Meerkat. Heron switches to Axolotl. Why? Dragonfly switches to Toucan I vote Dragonfly Croc switches from Meerkat to Axolotl Flamingo votes Axolotl to back up Croc (and not exe Dragonfly) Axolotl switches from Kanga to Dragonfly in self-pres Weasel votes Kanga for weird vote. I like it. I like the push, and I think it distances them enough from Kanga in my eyes. VC as of 11:00 PM EST Monday, 11 hours before rollover: Violet Axolotl (4): Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Sunburst Toucan (1): Ivory Dragonfly Sapphire Elephant (2): Sunburst Toucan, Oxblood Beagle Salmon Meerkat (2): Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (3): Salmon Meerkat, Saffron Iguana, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1): Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (4): Violet Axolotl, Taupe Gecko, Scarlet Octopus, Sage Kangaroo At least the two elims we know are well spread out here. For some reason, Dragonfly decides to vote Axolotl (probably in self-pres), claims Lurcher. Iguana switches from Kanga to Octo. I vote Weasel. Beagle switches from Elephant to Axolotl. Everything after that is my rollover madness Sooooo I just wasted a lot of time putting that together and I don't even get any good results out of it. Great. I'm just really not feeling the analysis this game for some reason But I really don't like the train on Octopus, and I really don't like its arguments. So we're attacking them for claiming? You guys do realize the risk here right? I don't want Octopus dead, sooo... I heavily agree with Rhino's dislike of Meerkat's early behavior, but Meerkat also voted to put Kanga in danger (albeit relatively early in the cycle) so I don't think I can really support that right now Let's see what does happen whenever Kanga is in danger: Octopus switches to Dragonfly, pushing them ahead of Kanga. Kanga also votes Dragonfly. Also, Croc votes Meerkat for their part in the pile; why vote the one who started it with a poke and not the follower, Octopus, or even Weasel? Hmph How did the Axolotl train form? Dingo started it for early jumpy votes. Heron followed I don't know why Croc jumped on And Flamingo did too. Flamingo actually backed up Croc quite heavily. I don't know guys. I really don't know. You'd think that with two dead elims there'd be so much we'd be able to do, but I got nothin'. I've somewhat concluded that the main trains (pre madness) D1 were both village, so elims could be hiding literally anywhere. Main people I'm inclined to vote (but for weak reasons): Dingo (vibes, weird Axolotl train start, old me found them suspicious I don't remember why and that reasoning sucks but oh well) Flamingo (backed up Croc) Iguana (got off Kanga to get onto Octo for weird reasons) I don't know I'm gonna go reread N1 just for vibes Let me know what y'all think, I'm just not feeling it But I don't want Octo dead WAIT WAIT WAIT breaking news Dingo online for rollover But wait nvm cause they were parked on Axl Nvm guys false alarm I understand your suspicion, but I liked Croc's reasoning. I wanted to save Dragonfly (my only v!lean) and voting my one e!lean (axl) would do it. I do now have a v!read on Axl (maybe cause croc is gone) but my reasoning (at the time) was valid.
Magenta Albatross Posted January 9 Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Taupe Gecko said: D1 Summary: Sunday: I poke Mauve Crocodile (10:52 AM) Dragonfly pokes Zebra (10:53 AM) Octopus pokes Meerkat (11:32 AM) Toucan pokes Elephant (11:45 AM) Kanga pokes Croc (12:18 PM) Dragonfly switches to Octopus for reason unclear (1:42 PM) Weasel pokes Dragonfly (1:44 PM) Dingo pokes Iguana (3:06 PM) Iguana pokes Kanga (3:24 PM) Axolotl votes Kanga for RP reasons (3:34 PM) Albatross (*cough* TwinStorm) pokes Meerkat (3:56 PM) Zebra pokes Croc (4:12 PM) Meerkat votes Dragonfly for weird speech (4:18 PM) VC as of 4:20 PM EST Sunday, approx 42 hours before rollover: Croc (2): Gecko (poke), Kanga (poke), Zebra (poke) Dragonfly (2): Weasel (poke), Meerkat (weird speech) Meerkat (2): Octopus (poke), Albatross (poke) Elephant (1): Toucan (poke) Octopus (1): Dragonfly (idk) Iguana (1): Dingo (poke) Kanga (2): Iguana (poke), Axolotl (RP reasons) Octopus switches to Dragonfly for changing vote on a whim (4:43 PM) Kanga votes Dragonfly, presumably backing up Octopus (5:07 PM) Croc votes Meerkat for “instigating the pile” on Dragonfly (6:11 PM) Meerkat switches from Dragonfly to Kanga (7:22 PM). Hey Mr. “I’m always suspicious of those who join trains on C1” that’s what you just did VC as of 9:00 PM EST Sunday, 37 hours before rollover: Croc (2): Gecko (poke), Zebra (poke) Dragonfly (3): Weasel (poke), Octopus (whim vote change), Kanga (back up Octo) Meerkat (2): Albatross (poke), Croc (pile on DF) Elephant (1): Toucan (poke) Octopus (1): Dragonfly (idk) Iguana (1): Dingo (poke) Kanga (3): Iguana (poke), Axolotl (RP reasons), Meerkat (weird vote on DF) So at this point, elims are in a situation where one of their own is in a tie. Let’s see what happens. Elephant votes Meerkat for willingness to change votes (10:35 PM) Beagle pokes Axolotl (10:51 PM) Heron votes Dingo (11:46 PM) Monday: Dingo votes Axolotl for early jumpy votes. VC as of 9:00 AM EST Monday, 25 hours before rollover: Croc (2): Gecko (poke), Zebra (poke) Dragonfly (3): Weasel (poke), Octopus (whim vote change), Kanga (back up Octo) Meerkat (3): Albatross (poke), Croc (pile on DF), Elephant (willingness to change votes) Elephant (1): Toucan (poke) Octopus (1): Dragonfly (idk) Iguana (1): Dingo (poke) Kanga (3): Iguana (poke), Axolotl (RP reasons), Meerkat (weird vote on DF) Axolotl (1): Beagle (poke) Dingo (1): Heron (idk but some reasoning) Beagle votes Elephant for weird accusation against Meerkat. Heron switches to Axolotl. Why? Dragonfly switches to Toucan I vote Dragonfly Croc switches from Meerkat to Axolotl Flamingo votes Axolotl to back up Croc (and not exe Dragonfly) Axolotl switches from Kanga to Dragonfly in self-pres Weasel votes Kanga for weird vote. I like it. I like the push, and I think it distances them enough from Kanga in my eyes. VC as of 11:00 PM EST Monday, 11 hours before rollover: Violet Axolotl (4): Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Melon Dingo, Mauve Crocodile Sunburst Toucan (1): Ivory Dragonfly Sapphire Elephant (2): Sunburst Toucan, Oxblood Beagle Salmon Meerkat (2): Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross Sage Kangaroo (3): Salmon Meerkat, Saffron Iguana, Indigo Weasel Mauve Crocodile (1): Quartz Zebra Ivory Dragonfly (4): Violet Axolotl, Taupe Gecko, Scarlet Octopus, Sage Kangaroo At least the two elims we know are well spread out here. For some reason, Dragonfly decides to vote Axolotl (probably in self-pres), claims Lurcher. Iguana switches from Kanga to Octo. I vote Weasel. Beagle switches from Elephant to Axolotl. Everything after that is my rollover madness Sooooo I just wasted a lot of time putting that together and I don't even get any good results out of it. Great. I'm just really not feeling the analysis this game for some reason But I really don't like the train on Octopus, and I really don't like its arguments. So we're attacking them for claiming? You guys do realize the risk here right? I don't want Octopus dead, sooo... I heavily agree with Rhino's dislike of Meerkat's early behavior, but Meerkat also voted to put Kanga in danger (albeit relatively early in the cycle) so I don't think I can really support that right now Let's see what does happen whenever Kanga is in danger: Octopus switches to Dragonfly, pushing them ahead of Kanga. Kanga also votes Dragonfly. Also, Croc votes Meerkat for their part in the pile; why vote the one who started it with a poke and not the follower, Octopus, or even Weasel? Hmph How did the Axolotl train form? Dingo started it for early jumpy votes. Heron followed I don't know why Croc jumped on And Flamingo did too. Flamingo actually backed up Croc quite heavily. I don't know guys. I really don't know. You'd think that with two dead elims there'd be so much we'd be able to do, but I got nothin'. I've somewhat concluded that the main trains (pre madness) D1 were both village, so elims could be hiding literally anywhere. Main people I'm inclined to vote (but for weak reasons): Dingo (vibes, weird Axolotl train start, old me found them suspicious I don't remember why and that reasoning sucks but oh well) Flamingo (backed up Croc) Iguana (got off Kanga to get onto Octo for weird reasons) I don't know I'm gonna go reread N1 just for vibes Let me know what y'all think, I'm just not feeling it But I don't want Octo dead WAIT WAIT WAIT breaking news Dingo online for rollover But wait nvm cause they were parked on Axl Nvm guys false alarm rude ugh I hate deepwolf hunting and rereading chaotic threads also I have no more analysis for you lot hopefully I can read through some of heron's posts tonight tho before solidifying my vote
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 9 Posted January 9 (edited) Levin was reading a book in his quarters. Just then, everything seemed to freeze in place. The ocean's waves crashing gently on the ship went still, the noisy conversations going on outside the cabin went silent, and the flickering lamp inside his room stopped blinking. The puppeteer pressed the Pause button on his controller. He was playing this murder mystery game, where the task was to find the traitors among a set of characters, but it was time that he needed a break from that. After all, it was a bit more taxing playing this game for as long as he was. I have some thoughts, but anyways, before that, here's the current vote count and history for Day 2 Vote History Heron - Iguana > Octopus Dragonfly - Rhinoceros Gecko - Iguana > Toucan > Gecko > Dingo Flamingo - Flamingo > Unvote > Octopus Octopus - Iguana > Toucan > Weasel Beagle - Iguana > Rhinoceros Iguana - Toucan Weasel - Octopus Toucan - Octopus Elephant - Octopus > Unvote Zebra - Octopus Axolotl - Octopus Albatross - Heron Vote Count Octopus (6) - Weasel, Toucan, Zebra, Axolotl, Flamingo, Heron Rhinoceros (2) - Dragonfly, Beagle Weasel (1) - Octopus Toucan (1) - Iguana Dingo (1) - Gecko Heron (1) - Albatross Not voting (6) - Meerkat, Rhinoceros, Chameleon, Lion, Dingo, Elephant Edited January 9 by Oxblood Beagle
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 9 Posted January 9 Time for some RP!! --- Frisk remembers the time they dealt with bones. That is not anymore. After that night... they deal with sight now. Frisk remembers their past. Falling... They remember a split. Death... Genocide Life... Pacifist. They aren't quite sure which they choose... But in this life... They would gain determination through saving lives, not killing them. This time, Frisk would be a Pacifist. --- Gosh i've been prosecuted for extravagant RPing before, but I needed too! (for all those undertale fans)
Salmon Meerkat Posted January 9 Posted January 9 11 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said: While Levin was still suspicious of the Saffron Iguana, he wanted to hear more from the Plum Rhinoceros. He remembered that the Rhinoceros had promised to contribute more once the night came, but he had seemingly disappeared and had yet to deliver on that. As he patiently waited, he heard the Meerkat suggest a different idea from the ones others had brought forth to the table. "I'm curious to hear more about this," he said. Honestly, that's for me vibes, but I don't like a post Gecko made during D1, something along the lines of "I don't want Dragonfly to die, so I'm..." I don't have a lot of other reads, so like I said earlier, I could see a e!<Dragonfly, Gecko> world, but they also pushed Kanga, so... I really don't know. Actually, what about an <e!Dragonfly, v!Gecko>? I could also see that. Gecko is less e! in my opinion, but that could just be Dragonfly's gimmick. V!Albatross for good analysis, I find that elims can struggle with that. E!lean Croc for D1, but could just be a simple mistake. I think there are probably 3 or 4 elims yet, so I'm thinking e!<Croc, Dragonfly, Gecko?, Octo?>. 1 hour ago, Taupe Gecko said: Meerkat switches from Dragonfly to Kanga (7:22 PM). Hey Mr. “I’m always suspicious of those who join trains on C1” that’s what you just did Ah, my dear, so drastically incorrect reptile. I didn't realize that there was a train happening. It's hard keeping up with the vote count.
Melon Dingo Posted January 9 Posted January 9 (edited) Guys I've been working on an analysis post for no joke 4.5 hours and I just lost it all minus this ALL BECAUSE I CONTROL Zed WHEN I ACIDENTALLY COPPIED A LINK TWICE In short I V!read Beagle, Dragonfly, and Gecko hard. I don't think we should look to exe them until lylo or late game if they are still alive and there is particularly weird things happening with them Octopus: Lean Elim Spoiler Post 1: poke on Meerkat +RP (NAI) Post 2: Throws sus on Dragonfly for switching votes fast does not vote. Dragonfly switched votes onto Octopus (lean elim for going after the person voting on you. Reads as though they are nervous others might follow the vote) Post 3-4: RP mostly with Kangaroo (NAI though could be distancing) Post 5: Asks Kangaroo who is sus. kangaroo responds with Crocodile for RP reasons and Dragonfly for game reasons which I think makes me lean good on Dragonfly Post 6: Responds to Kangaroo saying they think e!Dragonfly could be protecting e!Meerkat. seems to get defensive about vote on them and projects that onto Dragonfly. Defensiveness = Elim to me but it also doesn't make sense as a poke in early hours of a LG and bad logic = Village most times for me. Result in NAI Post 7: After meerkat joins removes poke and votes on Dragonfly. They were the third vote on Dragonfly. Before this vote the relevant votes were Dragonfly(2) Weasel (response to DF/poke), Meerkat (gimmick) Crocodile(3): Gecko (poke), Kangaroo (poke but also distancing), Zebra (poke) Kangaroo(2) Iguana, Axolotl, Meerkat(2) Octopus, Albatross Octopus(1) Dragonfly (anti-guessing) Iguana(1) Dingo (poke) Based on this vote state they chose to move their from Meerkat to Dragonfly. They had voiced suspicion of DF before the votes came so that is slightly less sus. However, it is worth noting that this vote state has an elim in the leading train and an elim in one of 3 counterwagons. Voting on Dragonfly makes the vote more about Dragonfly vs Crocodile rather than including Kangaroo in that. lean elim Post 8-11: RP Post 12: RP + Asks if coinshots can self kill. Seems like a joke question as it is in response to Jo saying Lurchers can self protect, but there isn't a reason for village to ask this question. That being said, I think this is TWTBW and an elim probably would have asked this in their doc or PM. lean village Night 1 Post 1: Says DF is village NAI Post 2: Says for most of the cycle DF and Kangaroo were voting each other to explain why DF is village. DF didn't vote on Kangaroo until 4 minutes before the day ended. Shows a lack of awareness of the Kangaroo votes that makes me think village. If elim, they must be putting in a lot of work to apear unaware which I think less likely Village Post 3: was vague with earlier posts and explains more. Asks for a reads list NAI Day 2 Post 1: Claims the Crocodile kill. This is pretty risky and I think reading into this has to depend on if we think the elim team has a lurcher or not. If they have a lurcher, this is actually a pretty safe claim from an elim regardless if Octopus is a CS or not. The lurcher just protects them and if they are hit by the coinshot they can say they were targeted by the elims. This post was before the lurcher rule change. If the elim team does not have a lurcher, this would be a very scary elim move. But I think lines up with what v!Octopus would do here. Slight elim Post 2: Starts to explain why they chose croc + reading into writeup RP I also elim read Heron. Since I lost it all I need a break and to come back and I'll redo my heron stuff But in short their analysis posts explicitly defend Kangaroo for reasons that don't make sense and v!read Zebra's while telling us not to listen to them when Zebra was sus on Croc which is a clever way to defend Croc without defending Croc. Lastly, the EOD D1 feels weird to me. Heron was asking people to explain and elaborate stuff in the last 10 minutes when people were talking about moving to Kangaroo. I think they were trying to slow down the thread to make it less likely that switch happened. I had a whole RP thing planned out to do for this post but I'm so frustrated with losing that work I don't feel up for RP. I was also ninjad a thousand gazzilion times so I just need to get this out Mint Heron Edit: While I'm elim reading both Heron and Octopus, both being elims would be a bit weird... not impossible but I would currently assume otherwise and I'm more sus on Heron Edited January 9 by Melon Dingo
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 9 Posted January 9 7 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said: You would still have to read the write-up. You wouldn’t have known an Elim was killed until you read the write up. Regardless of whether you’re Elim or Village you still would have read the write-up, so this doesn’t mean anything. And this is your biggest reason? It doesn’t even support you. getting you off the chopping block assumes you would have been exed. And until I started pressing you, the votes were on Toucan and Iguana. And also, there are other ways of doing that than just claiming an important role. You could have explained your reasoning for what you did that made people want to vote you. And instead you went claiming coinshot. There are better ways to do this, and claiming coinshot is probably the worst one. If this is your reason, you felt you couldn’t explain your other actions, which is very elim-y to me. and of course no one’s counterclaimed. The coinshot will just kill you at night. And, what if they do? We then know that one of the two is lying, but we don’t know who. An Elim could claim coinshot in response to the real coinshot just as much as a real coinshot would claim in response to a fake coinshot, the other people have no way of knowing who’s who. And, the real coinshot just made it so they could be hit at night. And while yes, this does mean they’d lose an, Elim, that only happens if the Coinshot claims, and it’s not a 1-1. We lose a Coinshot kill while the Elims lose a Elim. As I’ve mentioned before, claiming Coinshot is a terrible move, and your reasons either don’t support you, or there are simply better ways to do it. Alright This is enough for me Octopus ~ 10 hours ago, Taupe Gecko said: H.E.A.R.T.H hesitated. "Perhaps... I can tell you a story?" It had been another charging session of memories. H.E.A.R.T.H had lived a second life now - a life in damnation, a life of punishment. Perhaps it would be good to share the visions that haunted it still. Klin nodded. "Yes, I would like that."
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9 Posted January 9 Okay, back at the screen staring the hours of footage - Art's Obs - D1 Cont. -> Weasel shifts from DF to Roo to make it 4-4-3 for DF, Axo and Roo resp. Ig moves off a "poke" vote on Roo towards Octo. Roo down to 2 votes now. Axo up to 5. Refer below; this does not look like an e/e interaction with Croc. Minor village points for Flami. At this point, Heron asks for alternatives as DF has claimed Lurcher. Heron offers Roo as a potential alt. Gecko answers the call, albeit with a different alt in Weasel. Please find the recording attached. Interestingly, it is quite a large post without a single mention about Roo. Bea votes for Axo, it's 6-3 now. Also, important to note that, at least at this point, Heron is proposing Roo as an alternative to CW (DF) and not the main wagon (Axo). They just want DF to survive any emotional allomancy shenanigans. Gecko asks for options again. Bea suggests Roo. Gecko says they will back it and they do. Bea shortly follows. Major village points for both. Axo 5, Roo 4. DF moves from Axo to Roo. Now it's Roo 5, Axo 4. Everyone thinks it's 4-4 due to an error in the VC. Heron holds off on voting to maintain a tie. References -> [3] - On 1/6/2026 at 5:33 AM, Onyx Flamingo said: Previously (Sorry I cant directly quote you because I wasn't on then, again i repeat, please do correct me if I'm wrong) you didn't vote early (I can understand, everyone has their own opinion on poke votes and early D1 is definetly the hardest time for solid votes) and then voted off of RP (which you seem to have done again?) Apparently, you (yet again) didn't give a reason for switching. Art's Conclusions - D1 -> DF, Bea and Gecko are largely village. Heron to a tiny bit lesser extent as well. Hunch says Weasel is village as well. Roo's last vote on Weasel was not a throwaway in my opinion. It was a genuine answer to the call by Gecko for the Weasel alt train. I just think the thread of conversation was going so fast, she did not realise an alt train had already developed on her. I liked Zebra's content. I liked Flami's behaviour. I'm not liking Tross or Octo. Ig and Ele to a lesser extent as well. I'm actually not sure what to make of Axo. I'm not ruling out an e/e train, nothing really to suggest the train was v/e other than Croc's vote on Axo. And we know Croc was a Rioter, their vote would have disappeared had they used/been around to use the Riot. Don't know about Dingo either. Art's Obs - N1/D2 -> Refer below; again, firstly, there's nothing to suggest that the counter-train (Axo) is v. Secondly, this also seems to be a TMI that the counter-train is v. Thirdly, this could also mean Tross trying to maintain the common consensus that the counter-train (Axo) is village, if Axo is evil with Tross. Negative points for Tross. Refer below; same post, removes Croc from PoE for no reason. I think this post from Flami - particularly in the spoiler box bit, exudes pure villageriness. Agree with Heron re: weird Toucan night vote. Note that D2 starts here. 3 attacks, I would tend to believe both the Lurcher claims for now. Lurcher nerf also hints at the possibility of multiple Lurchers. Octo says they shot Croc because they went through Heron's list and found a mutual suspect. They also say Croc was kind of annoying and did not contribute to much. Skimmed the rest of the D2 References -> [1] - On 1/6/2026 at 3:40 PM, Magenta Albatross said: also, by that logic, theres at least one elim on the countertrain [2] - On 1/6/2026 at 3:40 PM, Magenta Albatross said: turns out I also like crocodile going back lol crossing them off for now Art's Thoughts So Far -> I oppose an Octo exe this cycle until we get some clarity. I understand Weasel's argument that they don't think Octo is actually the CS, and that they are baiting the actual CS, but I do think we have hints of CS!Octo quite early in the game. Remember, they asked if Coinshots can attack themselves. My question to @Scarlet Octopus is, why would you ask that question? If you are a Coinshot, why would you want to attack yourself? I also understand Weasel's argument that it is less-than ideal or sub-optimal village play to truly claim CS if you are one. But Weasel, sometimes people play sub-optimally and that is okay. To further convince Weasel, the choice to bait the real CS requires planning and time to discuss with any potential teammate. But here, it looks like they just blurted it out. I really don't think a Saboteur's first reaction on learning that they just lost yet another teammate would be to claim that kill. What exactly are other Octo voters' arguments? Like I said, my biggest problem is the reason they asked the aforementioned question. I'm thinking they are actually a Coinshot. But I am not ruling out some failed WGG scenario because of the question they asked. It could be that someone was supposed to protect Croc but that did not happen for some reason. The issue with this is Joe is a very creative GM, and e!Coinshots have been done to the level that it is not unexpected any more. So, speculating distro here, I do not think there is an e!CS. The possibility of 2 v!CS though.... I would not rule out. I'm not gonna pile on Octo before we get some more info. My highest suspicion would be, as stated above, AlbaTross.
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 9 Posted January 9 Alright, so I think that Octopus is just being scapegoated, and I'm side-eyeing Flamingo, Toucan, Axolotl, and Elephant for mostly hopping on Weasel's reasoning, as well as, not bringing other reads to the table. I don't think they're all elim, but it's quite possible at least one of them is there since it seems like an easy vote to latch on. Anyways, I'd like to ask more about your thought process of the world where Octopus is elim @Indigo Weasel. So, I have some questions: - Do you think this Coinshot claim was premeditated during the night? - Do you think it's not possible that this was just a genuine mistake for them to reveal themselves as Coinshot? Because I feel like part of your argument is assuming every villager would do the most optimal play and we have seen that that isn't necessarily the case (i.e. people voting during night after the flip, people not reading who died, Kanga not self-preserving at EOD, etc) There were some posts by Octopus that drew my attention. On D1, Jo clarified that Lurchers can self-protect, which prompted Octopus to ask this question: On 1/5/2026 at 9:55 AM, Scarlet Octopus said: Can coinshots self-kill? This is the sort of question where asking it has no tangible benefit for most players because why would a coinshot self-kill regardless of their alignment. BUT, I could see why someone who rolled Coinshot would ask it as someone curious about the mechanics of their role On N1, Octopus has these two posts where the first post, although it's in RP, it does seem to be suggesting that they're coinshot with the emphasis on "I need to know" in a statement where the following pronouns are all "We". On 1/7/2026 at 12:26 AM, Scarlet Octopus said: "Dragonfly and Kangaroo. I need to know who we're most suspicious of right now, and who we think the saboteurs are most likely to kill. We need to send them to Ironeyes before they send us." On 1/7/2026 at 12:10 AM, Scarlet Octopus said: So I was a little busy around rollover. So who are our top suspects? In both of these phases' posts, it seems to suggest that if Octopus was an elim, this was a premeditated plan to eventually claim as Coinshot. However, from their posting and the way they've been moving in this game, they don't strike me as the type of player to make this kind of calculated move. They come across more as a player who's still gaining more experience playing this game (forgive me if I'm wrong) and has ended up drawing more suspicion on themselves for something that was genuinely a mistaken move. Outside of this, my concern is that if Octopus is indeed a v!Coinshot and there is an e!Kandra, this is the prime opportunity to get that role. We already know that Kanga's role was taken. It's quite possible a v!Kandra got it because they are of a higher generation, and so, since the elims are aware of this fact, they then might try to hop on this wagon to score an opportunity to have an added KP at night and there's enough traction on it right now where they can safely hide themselves in this wagon. So, I would suggest against this execution and I feel like we've let some people keep staying under the radar and be off the hook (like Flamingo, Elephant, and Toucan), so I would prefer to direct attention on them for today (I'll be reading more of what they said and try to see where I'll be voting)
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted January 9 Author Posted January 9 (edited) I believe this is the Vote Count Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Sunburst Toucan (1): Saffron Iguana Scarlet Octopus (6): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Quartz Zebra, Mint Heron, Indigo Weasel Plum Rhinoceros (2): Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly Mint Heron (2): Melon Dingo, Magenta Albatross Melon Dingo (1): Taupe Gecko Magenta Albatross (1): Plum Rhinoceros Indigo Weasel (1): Scarlet Octopus Edited January 9 by A Jo in the Bush
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 9 Posted January 9 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: Okay, back at the screen staring the hours of footage - Art's Obs - D1 Cont. -> Weasel shifts from DF to Roo to make it 4-4-3 for DF, Axo and Roo resp. Ig moves off a "poke" vote on Roo towards Octo. Roo down to 2 votes now. Axo up to 5. Refer below; this does not look like an e/e interaction with Croc. Minor village points for Flami. At this point, Heron asks for alternatives as DF has claimed Lurcher. Heron offers Roo as a potential alt. Gecko answers the call, albeit with a different alt in Weasel. Please find the recording attached. Interestingly, it is quite a large post without a single mention about Roo. Bea votes for Axo, it's 6-3 now. Also, important to note that, at least at this point, Heron is proposing Roo as an alternative to CW (DF) and not the main wagon (Axo). They just want DF to survive any emotional allomancy shenanigans. Gecko asks for options again. Bea suggests Roo. Gecko says they will back it and they do. Bea shortly follows. Major village points for both. Axo 5, Roo 4. DF moves from Axo to Roo. Now it's Roo 5, Axo 4. Everyone thinks it's 4-4 due to an error in the VC. Heron holds off on voting to maintain a tie. References -> [3] - Art's Conclusions - D1 -> DF, Bea and Gecko are largely village. Heron to a tiny bit lesser extent as well. Hunch says Weasel is village as well. Roo's last vote on Weasel was not a throwaway in my opinion. It was a genuine answer to the call by Gecko for the Weasel alt train. I just think the thread of conversation was going so fast, she did not realise an alt train had already developed on her. I liked Zebra's content. I liked Flami's behaviour. I'm not liking Tross or Octo. Ig and Ele to a lesser extent as well. I'm actually not sure what to make of Axo. I'm not ruling out an e/e train, nothing really to suggest the train was v/e other than Croc's vote on Axo. And we know Croc was a Rioter, their vote would have disappeared had they used/been around to use the Riot. Don't know about Dingo either. Art's Obs - N1/D2 -> Refer below; again, firstly, there's nothing to suggest that the counter-train (Axo) is v. Secondly, this also seems to be a TMI that the counter-train is v. Thirdly, this could also mean Tross trying to maintain the common consensus that the counter-train (Axo) is village, if Axo is evil with Tross. Negative points for Tross. Refer below; same post, removes Croc from PoE for no reason. I think this post from Flami - particularly in the spoiler box bit, exudes pure villageriness. Agree with Heron re: weird Toucan night vote. Note that D2 starts here. 3 attacks, I would tend to believe both the Lurcher claims for now. Lurcher nerf also hints at the possibility of multiple Lurchers. Octo says they shot Croc because they went through Heron's list and found a mutual suspect. They also say Croc was kind of annoying and did not contribute to much. Skimmed the rest of the D2 References -> [1] - [2] - Art's Thoughts So Far -> I oppose an Octo exe this cycle until we get some clarity. I understand Weasel's argument that they don't think Octo is actually the CS, and that they are baiting the actual CS, but I do think we have hints of CS!Octo quite early in the game. Remember, they asked if Coinshots can attack themselves. My question to @Scarlet Octopus is, why would you ask that question? If you are a Coinshot, why would you want to attack yourself? I also understand Weasel's argument that it is less-than ideal or sub-optimal village play to truly claim CS if you are one. But Weasel, sometimes people play sub-optimally and that is okay. To further convince Weasel, the choice to bait the real CS requires planning and time to discuss with any potential teammate. But here, it looks like they just blurted it out. I really don't think a Saboteur's first reaction on learning that they just lost yet another teammate would be to claim that kill. What exactly are other Octo voters' arguments? Like I said, my biggest problem is the reason they asked the aforementioned question. I'm thinking they are actually a Coinshot. But I am not ruling out some failed WGG scenario because of the question they asked. It could be that someone was supposed to protect Croc but that did not happen for some reason. The issue with this is Joe is a very creative GM, and e!Coinshots have been done to the level that it is not unexpected any more. So, speculating distro here, I do not think there is an e!CS. The possibility of 2 v!CS though.... I would not rule out. I'm not gonna pile on Octo before we get some more info. My highest suspicion would be, as stated above, AlbaTross. Awww thank you! 9 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Alright, so I think that Octopus is just being scapegoated, and I'm side-eyeing Flamingo, Toucan, Axolotl, and Elephant for mostly hopping on Weasel's reasoning, as well as, not bringing other reads to the table. I don't think they're all elim, but it's quite possible at least one of them is there since it seems like an easy vote to latch on. Anyways, I'd like to ask more about your thought process of the world where Octopus is elim @Indigo Weasel. So, I have some questions: - Do you think this Coinshot claim was premeditated during the night? - Do you think it's not possible that this was just a genuine mistake for them to reveal themselves as Coinshot? Because I feel like part of your argument is assuming every villager would do the most optimal play and we have seen that that isn't necessarily the case (i.e. people voting during night after the flip, people not reading who died, Kanga not self-preserving at EOD, etc) There were some posts by Octopus that drew my attention. On D1, Jo clarified that Lurchers can self-protect, which prompted Octopus to ask this question: This is the sort of question where asking it has no tangible benefit for most players because why would a coinshot self-kill regardless of their alignment. BUT, I could see why someone who rolled Coinshot would ask it as someone curious about the mechanics of their role On N1, Octopus has these two posts where the first post, although it's in RP, it does seem to be suggesting that they're coinshot with the emphasis on "I need to know" in a statement where the following pronouns are all "We". In both of these phases' posts, it seems to suggest that if Octopus was an elim, this was a premeditated plan to eventually claim as Coinshot. However, from their posting and the way they've been moving in this game, they don't strike me as the type of player to make this kind of calculated move. They come across more as a player who's still gaining more experience playing this game (forgive me if I'm wrong) and has ended up drawing more suspicion on themselves for something that was genuinely a mistaken move. Outside of this, my concern is that if Octopus is indeed a v!Coinshot and there is an e!Kandra, this is the prime opportunity to get that role. We already know that Kanga's role was taken. It's quite possible a v!Kandra got it because they are of a higher generation, and so, since the elims are aware of this fact, they then might try to hop on this wagon to score an opportunity to have an added KP at night and there's enough traction on it right now where they can safely hide themselves in this wagon. So, I would suggest against this execution and I feel like we've let some people keep staying under the radar and be off the hook (like Flamingo, Elephant, and Toucan), so I would prefer to direct attention on them for today (I'll be reading more of what they said and try to see where I'll be voting) Well, generally, how I play the game (because I dont have great analysis skills) is I find reasoning that I agree with (but only when I agree with it) and use that to form the basis for my vote. In D1 I voted Axl, initially because of someone else's reasoning, but kept on Axl vote because of my own continued reasoning. I no longer agree with my previous Octopus vote, but am not entirely sure who to look into next. I would love to find another suspect before N2. Edit: Just now, A Jo in the Bush said: I believe this is the Vote Count Taupe Gecko (1): Salmon Meerkat Sunburst Toucan (1): Saffron Iguana Scarlet Octopus (7): Violet Axolotl, Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Quartz Zebra, Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron, Indigo Weasel Plum Rhinoceros (2): Oxblood Beagle, Ivory Dragonfly Mint Heron (2): Melon Dingo, Magenta Albatross Melon Dingo (1): Taupe Gecko Magenta Albatross (1): Plum Rhinoceros Indigo Weasel (1): Scarlet Octopus Whoops ninjd Edited January 9 by Onyx Flamingo
Magenta Albatross Posted January 9 Posted January 9 15 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: Okay, back at the screen staring the hours of footage - Art's Obs - D1 Cont. -> Weasel shifts from DF to Roo to make it 4-4-3 for DF, Axo and Roo resp. Ig moves off a "poke" vote on Roo towards Octo. Roo down to 2 votes now. Axo up to 5. Refer below; this does not look like an e/e interaction with Croc. Minor village points for Flami. At this point, Heron asks for alternatives as DF has claimed Lurcher. Heron offers Roo as a potential alt. Gecko answers the call, albeit with a different alt in Weasel. Please find the recording attached. Interestingly, it is quite a large post without a single mention about Roo. Bea votes for Axo, it's 6-3 now. Also, important to note that, at least at this point, Heron is proposing Roo as an alternative to CW (DF) and not the main wagon (Axo). They just want DF to survive any emotional allomancy shenanigans. Gecko asks for options again. Bea suggests Roo. Gecko says they will back it and they do. Bea shortly follows. Major village points for both. Axo 5, Roo 4. DF moves from Axo to Roo. Now it's Roo 5, Axo 4. Everyone thinks it's 4-4 due to an error in the VC. Heron holds off on voting to maintain a tie. References -> [3] - Art's Conclusions - D1 -> DF, Bea and Gecko are largely village. Heron to a tiny bit lesser extent as well. Hunch says Weasel is village as well. Roo's last vote on Weasel was not a throwaway in my opinion. It was a genuine answer to the call by Gecko for the Weasel alt train. I just think the thread of conversation was going so fast, she did not realise an alt train had already developed on her. I liked Zebra's content. I liked Flami's behaviour. I'm not liking Tross or Octo. Ig and Ele to a lesser extent as well. I'm actually not sure what to make of Axo. I'm not ruling out an e/e train, nothing really to suggest the train was v/e other than Croc's vote on Axo. And we know Croc was a Rioter, their vote would have disappeared had they used/been around to use the Riot. Don't know about Dingo either. Art's Obs - N1/D2 -> Refer below; again, firstly, there's nothing to suggest that the counter-train (Axo) is v. Secondly, this also seems to be a TMI that the counter-train is v. Thirdly, this could also mean Tross trying to maintain the common consensus that the counter-train (Axo) is village, if Axo is evil with Tross. Negative points for Tross. Refer below; same post, removes Croc from PoE for no reason. I think this post from Flami - particularly in the spoiler box bit, exudes pure villageriness. Agree with Heron re: weird Toucan night vote. Note that D2 starts here. 3 attacks, I would tend to believe both the Lurcher claims for now. Lurcher nerf also hints at the possibility of multiple Lurchers. Octo says they shot Croc because they went through Heron's list and found a mutual suspect. They also say Croc was kind of annoying and did not contribute to much. Skimmed the rest of the D2 References -> [1] - [2] - Art's Thoughts So Far -> I oppose an Octo exe this cycle until we get some clarity. I understand Weasel's argument that they don't think Octo is actually the CS, and that they are baiting the actual CS, but I do think we have hints of CS!Octo quite early in the game. Remember, they asked if Coinshots can attack themselves. My question to @Scarlet Octopus is, why would you ask that question? If you are a Coinshot, why would you want to attack yourself? I also understand Weasel's argument that it is less-than ideal or sub-optimal village play to truly claim CS if you are one. But Weasel, sometimes people play sub-optimally and that is okay. To further convince Weasel, the choice to bait the real CS requires planning and time to discuss with any potential teammate. But here, it looks like they just blurted it out. I really don't think a Saboteur's first reaction on learning that they just lost yet another teammate would be to claim that kill. What exactly are other Octo voters' arguments? Like I said, my biggest problem is the reason they asked the aforementioned question. I'm thinking they are actually a Coinshot. But I am not ruling out some failed WGG scenario because of the question they asked. It could be that someone was supposed to protect Croc but that did not happen for some reason. The issue with this is Joe is a very creative GM, and e!Coinshots have been done to the level that it is not unexpected any more. So, speculating distro here, I do not think there is an e!CS. The possibility of 2 v!CS though.... I would not rule out. I'm not gonna pile on Octo before we get some more info. My highest suspicion would be, as stated above, AlbaTross. honestly, my only real defense is that, while its mostly my fault and bad scheduling I have spent this game minimally engaged and failing to reread however, I will say, don't kill Octopus if he is a v/coinshot its such a power role that we should keep him in at least for the next cycle time is on our sides rn we can afford to see what the N2 reveals mostly cuz we'll see what our MB count is
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