AG12: Day 2: A Second Shattering

[Melon Dingo]

36 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

I was ribbing you if that wasn't clear bruv

Forum jokes are hard. I was both treating it as that and a real criticism at the same time 

29 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Levin had heard that the body of the Kangaroo had disappeared overnight. He heard murmurs among the passengers that it had been devoured by a Kandra. He was a little rattled. Kandras did remind him of those man-eating plants that he had the unfortunate experience of witnessing when he once traded smuggled goods through the jungle in a previous life.

The question was, was this Kandra a friend or foe?

Thanks for quoting i didnt see that.

Just thinking about it a role madness game where all the elims are Kandra would be pretty cool though obviously thats not this game. Hopefully village got it cause thats a really powerful role. And with PMs open now (and hopefully one more time this game? might be able to form trust circles

4 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said:

Who hasn’t appeared yet? Like, at all?

 

2 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Opal Lion.

Edit:

Also Pearl Chameleon I think.

And Plum Rhino right? Or maybe they had one post i dont remember.

[Quartz Zebra]

SUBJECT: I SMELL BURNT COPPER AND RECKLESSNESS!

Well, paint me copper and call me a conductor!

Did y'all see that? The "Great Work" of our dear Adonalsium turned out to be nothin' but a Saboteur’s temper tantrum! My Grumble-Gauge was screamin’ about that fella for a reason—turns out he wasn't a god, just a leaky Rioter with a mask and a bad attitude. Wouln't it be weird if the folks shoutin' the loudest about "Retribution" were just the ones tryin' to hide the fact they were rippin' the bolts out of the hull?

And mercy me, Levin (Oxblood Beagle)! You took a Koloss-sized toss to the bulkhead and you’re still standin’? You must be made of sturdier stuff than the SS TYRIAN’S own stabilizers. And Fletcher (Violet Axolotl) dodging a Coinshot? There was enough metal flyin' in those halls last night to start a scrap yard!

I spent the Night shieldin’ my own ears from the ruckus, but it sounds like some folks were busy playin' "No Gods, No Masters" with a sword. Whoever put that piece of metal through the "God-King" deserves a fresh ration of oil and a pat on the back.

We got one varmint out of the gearbox, but the Interim Captain's got us on lockdown. I’m stayin’ in my engine room, keepin' the Peeping-Ma-Bob tuned to the vibrations. Now that the smoke’s cleared on Adonalsium, I'm real curious to see who's lookin' shifty now that their "Sacrifice Play" went belly-up.

Stay safe, and for the love of the Core, DON'T TOUCH MY DOODADS!

- Finch

[Mint Heron]

6 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

And Plum Rhino right? Or maybe they had one post i dont remember.

Two. One post saying they were busy, one EoD analysis thing I think suggesting suspicion of Octo. I'm not sure what to make of Rhino having the mental capacity to case at EoD given the vote chaos.

[Onyx Flamingo]

To what level should we say what role we have? Asking the people who are good at this game.

----

Frisk woke up. He remembered falling. Into a cavern... Underground. But so much had changed. 2 villains? Already? Justice worked faster than Frisk would've thought.

57 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

Omg this game is wild 3 kills on night 1 and 2 protects?  Lurchers are probably better off not saying if the lack of deaths was them or not. And 2 elims dead by C2 is going to be really nice... for when I get a chance to do analysis lol

Im pretty busy today but @Mint Heronim not offended im struggling a bit this game just giving you a bad time

@Onyx Flamingoi know the meta has changed over time but I definitely prescribe to the "defending yourself is more of an elim trait" philosophyl

@Taupe Geckoyour votes are wrong? Ill go back and check. I Dingo (meant to say appologize but my phone wants me to say "I Dingo"lol. ) I went through a lot of posts. Also "gimmick" referred to people voting on Dragonfly for the way they were posting

Alrighty then. I guess my defense now is no defense

Onyx Flamingo (jkjkjk)

Onyx Flamingo

this is getting more and more confusing T^T

[Taupe Gecko]

20 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

Forum jokes are hard. I was both treating it as that and a real criticism at the same time 

Thanks for quoting i didnt see that.

Just thinking about it a role madness game where all the elims are Kandra would be pretty cool though obviously thats not this game. Hopefully village got it cause thats a really powerful role. And with PMs open now (and hopefully one more time this game? might be able to form trust circles

 

And Plum Rhino right? Or maybe they had one post i dont remember.

@Opal Lion@Pearl Chameleon@Plum Rhinoceros

How does it be going?

[Sunburst Toucan]

Ophelia looked up from where she had been trying to figure out what Finch's "doodads" were, so she could avoid them. Three attacks in the night, and two people saved? That was impressive. The Adonalsium person was dead, though - well, one of them was. They had been ... characterful, to say the least. And then they'd been a saboteur. That was a shame.

I feel like one of the best strategies to avoid suspicion appears to be posting little, which I realise probably incriminates me. Nonetheless, an observation I had.

Ophelia went back to petting the stray cat.

[Mint Heron]

8 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

To what level should we say what role we have? Asking the people who are good at this game.

Not good but would say try to avoid it in early to midgame unless there's a specific reason to, e.g. people are trying to work out some night action exchange that could clear a player or not. Commonly, the problem with claiming regular as a regular is that you help the Elims do PoE on the roles to figure out good targets to kill, so you can endanger power roles even if you think your role isn't important. A game I played in before had that happen, with the Elims identifying all Village power roles by...I think N2, and killing the Coinshot (who never claimed) because of it.

If you are a Village PR, claiming before Village kills you is a good rule. Yes, Elims may do that too, but generally working out whether this is V or E, whether or not to give the benefit of the doubt is the Village's problem regardless. Village never appreciates being surprised this way.

I will add that in lategame in Tyrian, it is worth claiming because the value of this info depreciates by lategame and because Tyrian has an actions economy, i.e. if you provably sent in an action last night, then you didn't put the Elim kill in. As the Elim team # reduces, they're going to badly feel the loss of players like Croc because players like e.g. if they have a Mistborn or Smoker must now choose whether to forgo night actions or not. (This usually works better when Tyrian games have Tineyes, but oh well  )

[Onyx Flamingo]

4 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Not good but would say try to avoid it in early to midgame unless there's a specific reason to, e.g. people are trying to work out some night action exchange that could clear a player or not. Commonly, the problem with claiming regular as a regular is that you help the Elims do PoE on the roles to figure out good targets to kill, so you can endanger power roles even if you think your role isn't important. A game I played in before had that happen, with the Elims identifying all Village power roles by...I think N2, and killing the Coinshot (who never claimed) because of it.

If you are a Village PR, claiming before Village kills you is a good rule. Yes, Elims may do that too, but generally working out whether this is V or E, whether or not to give the benefit of the doubt is the Village's problem regardless. Village never appreciates being surprised this way.

I will add that in lategame in Tyrian, it is worth claiming because the value of this info depreciates by lategame and because Tyrian has an actions economy, i.e. if you provably sent in an action last night, then you didn't put the Elim kill in. As the Elim team # reduces, they're going to badly feel the loss of players like Croc because players like e.g. if they have a Mistborn or Smoker must now choose whether to forgo night actions or not. (This usually works better when Tyrian games have Tineyes, but oh well  )

Ah. I see.

Edited January 7 by Onyx Flamingo

[Taupe Gecko]

13 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Not good

“Not good”

Me, who knows who this guy is:

[Sunburst Toucan]

How common is it for someone to have no role at all?

[Mint Heron]

3 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

How common is it for someone to have no role at all?

In a normal game, depends on the GM but it is common for this kind of ruleset (Tyrian) to not be role-madness.

...However, this is a Tyrian AG. They're notorious for having screwed up rulesets and if you give me any AG# and I remember it, I can probably tell you one (1) screwy thing they did that took the Village by shock. Distro assumptions kill in Tyrian AGs, and things get whack.

Edited to add:

Tbf I guess the last two were relatively normal...for a Tyrian.

Edited January 7 by Mint Heron

[Taupe Gecko]

3 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

How common is it for someone to have no role at all?

Decently

Probably a couple

But it’s better not to claim that

[Sunburst Toucan]

1 minute ago, Mint Heron said:

In a normal game, depends on the GM but it is common for this kind of ruleset (Tyrian) to not be role-madness.

...However, this is a Tyrian AG. They're notorious for having screwed up rulesets and if you give me any AG# and I remember it, I can probably tell you one (1) screwy thing they did that took the Village by shock. Distro assumptions kill in Tyrian AGs, and things get whack.

Thanks!

[Scarlet Octopus]

10 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

In a normal game, depends on the GM but it is common for this kind of ruleset (Tyrian) to not be role-madness.

...However, this is a Tyrian AG. They're notorious for having screwed up rulesets and if you give me any AG# and I remember it, I can probably tell you one (1) screwy thing they did that took the Village by shock. Distro assumptions kill in Tyrian AGs, and things get whack.

Edited to add:

Tbf I guess the last two were relatively normal...for a Tyrian.

Can the saboteurs have a coinshot?

[Melon Dingo]

35 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Not good but would say try to avoid it in early to midgame unless there's a specific reason to, e.g. people are trying to work out some night action exchange that could clear a player or not.

Whaaaat? Obviously we should all role claim all at once.

3

2

1

LURCHER!

Woah we have 3 lurchers this game?

Wait why did no one else join me?

Spoiler

In all seriousness I agree with everything you say here... unless anyone wants to PM me?

Oh I do think if there is a trusted player soothers/rioters might benefit from claiming in PMs but also since role != alignment thats more of a personal choice than necessarily a good/bad one.

That being said, an elim team with 2 vote manip is super strong and if thats the case I'd guess theres 3-4 of them. So while vote manip is definitely not AI it could help with possible worlds.

15 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

How common is it for someone to have no role at all?

It varies. Depends on how Jo/TUM wanted to run it but it seems very reasonable that there be some in a 20 player game. With 10 roles for no one to be vanilla there would need to be an average of 2 of every role in the game which seems very challenging to balance to me. Not that it couldnt be done or wouldnt be attempted

Ninjad by some people

Edit: @Scarlet Octopus elims could have an coinshot or a MB that rolls coinshot. There really is nothing they *cant* have. if elims have 2 guarenteed kills/night, i would expect a lot of village protection via lurcher/thug/seeker to compensate.

Edited January 7 by Melon Dingo

[Mint Heron]

10 minutes ago, Scarlet Octopus said:

Can the saboteurs have a coinshot?

YES.

DEFINITELY YES.

Not first assumption, but it has happened. Some people still have PTSD from AG8 where it happened. 

10 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

Edit: @Scarlet Octopus elims could have an coinshot or a MB that rolls coinshot. There really is nothing they *cant* have. if elims have 2 guarenteed kills/night, i would expect a lot of village protection via lurcher/thug/seeker to compensate.

This. This is how we worked out the CS was actually evil after kinda temp clearing them for pretty bad reasons including being a Coinshot. I think she'd hit like the third or fourth Thug in the game, there were two Lurchers we knew of (actually there had been three), and we realised that everything she'd done looked pretty objectively Evil...if you ignored the fact she was a Coinshot so we decided the distro didn't preclude E!CS, said "YOLO" and exed her and she flipped E!CS and we had a collective heart attack.

13 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

That being said, an elim team with 2 vote manip is super strong and if thats the case I'd guess theres 3-4 of them. So while vote manip is definitely not AI it could help with possible worlds.

I need to tell you about AG2 at some point 

...I think it was AG2, it could very well have been AG1.

[Violet Axolotl]

Fletcher woke up. His mind swam. What had happened? The side of his head blazed with pain. He reached up, and felt his ear. His hand came away bloody.

He staggered to his feet. He had almost been reset. Again. He remembered now. The endless series of lives, stretching far, far back. He wasn't ready to start anew yet.

Interesting. 3! And we got another saboteur! Good job @Scarlet Octopus, if indeed that was you!

I've been getting v!lean on beagle because of the nature of their analysis, and unless we have 2 coinshots or octo is lying, they're V.

I don't really have any reads rn

Anyone that wants to PM me, go ahead.

Edited January 7 by Violet Axolotl

[Indigo Weasel]

So, we basically got a soft clear on beagle, if not a hard clear. I’m going to go look at their posts in the past day and night.

if the kill was random, not much we can gain from it, but assuming there was a reason, it has to be in their posts as PMs weren’t open till today.

I think it’s a safe bet assuming it wasn’t random, so I’ll go look at that and see what I can find, I’ll give some analysis of it later.

Third smiled, “these saboteurs have made a classic blunder, revealing their hand to early, a fact my training by the ancient dragons will easily exploit.”

[Scarlet Octopus]

Okay, time for me to actually post some reads.

Quote

 

Violet Axolotl: Fletcher (Past Lives): You've been targeted already, so that's probably giving me some bias. But you've been helpful

Taupe Gecko: H.E.A.R.T.H. (Past Lives) You've been working hard at trying to solve this

Sunburst Toucan: Ophelia Desci (Forgetful) Neutral read, seems relatively new.

Scarlet Octopus: Chiji Kaido (Silverist) This is me, your friendly coinshot! I'm gonna be a target for the Elims coming up these next few cycles!

Sapphire Elephant: Klin (Merchant) No read

Salmon Meerkat: Dugh Thomas (Arrogant) neutral read

Saffron Iguana: Arnold Johnson (Obsessively Neat)  Slight e!lean

Quartz Zebra: Finch (Tinkerer) Neutral read 

Plum Rhinoceros: Art (Stowaway) No read

Pearl Chameleon: Neugier (Past Lives) hasn't posted much

Oxblood Beagle: Levin (Past Lives) They were targeted by the Elims, a huge risk if they are an elim (Unless they have a Lurcher, but I don't know if thats possible)

Opal Lion: Dusk (Sleepy Old Man) hasn't posted much.

Onyx Flamingo: Frisk (Past Lives) No read, but they claim to be (semi)new from what I've seen

Mint Heron: Zense (Ship's Musician) See also Taupe Gecko

Melon Dingo: Stormseeker the Wise (Returned) Something feels off.

Magenta Albatross: Rane Cauthon (Gambler) No read to either side

Ivory Dragonfly: Echo (Echo) I cleared them before, so, while not as strong as my other village reads.

Indigo Weasel: Third of the Tide (Liar) Your willingness to go back and reanalyze in your previous post gives me a v!lean

 

With how many Elims there started with (4 probably) I'd be surprised if they weren't going for a deepwolf with at least 1 Elim

For now, my vote is on Iguana

[Onyx Flamingo]

4 minutes ago, Scarlet Octopus said:

Okay, time for me to actually post some reads.

With how many Elims there started with (4 probably) I'd be surprised if they weren't going for a deepwolf with at least 1 Elim

For now, my vote is on Iguana

No, Im not new. Just bad. Getting better! (see this is why i didnt specify because people might think im lying)

[Scarlet Octopus]

1 minute ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

No, Im not new. Just bad. Getting better! (see this is why i didnt specify because people might think im lying)

Good clarification. I will remember that

[Mint Heron]

9 minutes ago, Scarlet Octopus said:

They were targeted by the Elims, a huge risk if they are an elim (Unless they have a Lurcher, but I don't know if thats possible)

FWIW if you claim v!CS (which I saw you did), it is quite likely they have a Lurcher, or a Thug. They can technically have a team without either, e.g. a bunch of Mistborn (I have seen it in comps before, I don't recall if it was a test comp or an actual comp that was run) but most 'safe' GMs (granted this is TUM and Jo so lol) will probably give them one just in case. However, the e!Lurcher (in this landscape) has no reason to claim, and if I were them and knew that two v!Lurchers had claimed, I would absolutely just lie my arse off and claim to be anything but a Lurcher in the hopes the Village does something foolish into the late game and tries to role-exe in the two known Lurchers. (...Spanreed incident.)

I also just wanted to state I think there are other strong arguments for v!Beagle besides Beagle being targeted last night: Beagle is the one who asked for the Kanga pivot. When Gecko proposed the tie/switch plan, he actually suggested Weasel (whom I v!lean and I think there's some argument for v!Weasel off Weasel hardpushing Kanga during D1.) Beagle asked for the Kanga pivot and backed it up by voting Kanga - that's a very strange thing to do when v!Axl was going to get exed (unless you think e!Axl, which I no longer buy FWIW) and v!DF was still endangered. Why pick Kanga over Gecko's proposal of Weasel? For that matter, why steer the exe to an Elim at all when the consensus initially was to just leave the trains as they were with Axl dying?

In terms of causality, Beagle is probably the most directly connected to Kanga getting exed. I wouldn't revise read unless it's lategame, Beagle is still alive, and we've hit enough bad exes that it's clear we've falsely cleared someone.

21 minutes ago, Scarlet Octopus said:

I'd be surprised if they weren't going for a deepwolf with at least 1 Elim

...Connects to your deepwolf point.

There might or might not be one; it depends on the Elim team's comp and their comfort with that niche. I think Croc for instance was going for a thread controller play, which can be deepwolf-adjacent though I take Beagle's point they're not very distancey by nature. Deepwolf world requires them to do pretty non-Elim things, so I am not too concerned with paranoia-hunting for them rn because finding a deepwolf always means shooting  in the people who look pretty Villagery first and that's a perverse incentive because those are the people we should be Village crediting. Killing too many of the people who look very Village to find a deepwolf also means you enter an endgame with people who look pretty sus which is a bad endgame landscape to be playing in.

Deepwolf still has teammates - when those teammates are dead, we'll have more info and space to go deepwolf hunting if the game hasn't ended. By that point, the deepwolf should also have done some more sus things, which makes them easier to find.

Not saying we can't but especially in a game where I don't know the player comp, I do want to remind people about PoE prioritisation (I'll blame some very spicy experiences on this forum lol) - some reads are robust enough that while they could be deepwolves, you revise only into lategame, some reads are weak enough they should be revised earlier. Deepwolf hunting is part of this. (tldr; don't paranoia exe Beagle, in most worlds Beagle is just dead by endgame, if Beagle somehow isn't and is more sus by then, then start worrying.)

[Scarlet Octopus]

22 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Not saying we can't but especially in a game where I don't know the player comp, I do want to remind people about PoE prioritisation (I'll blame some very spicy experiences on this forum lol) - some reads are robust enough that while they could be deepwolves, you revise only into lategame, some reads are weak enough they should be revised earlier. Deepwolf hunting is part of this. (tldr; don't paranoia exe Beagle, in most worlds Beagle is just dead by endgame, if Beagle somehow isn't and is more sus by then, then start worrying.)

I would also note I have almost no experience deepwolf hunting, so I wouldn't be worrying about it until later 

[Onyx Flamingo]

54 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

FWIW if you claim v!CS (which I saw you did), it is quite likely they have a Lurcher, or a Thug. They can technically have a team without either, e.g. a bunch of Mistborn (I have seen it in comps before, I don't recall if it was a test comp or an actual comp that was run) but most 'safe' GMs (granted this is TUM and Jo so lol) will probably give them one just in case. However, the e!Lurcher (in this landscape) has no reason to claim, and if I were them and knew that two v!Lurchers had claimed, I would absolutely just lie my arse off and claim to be anything but a Lurcher in the hopes the Village does something foolish into the late game and tries to role-exe in the two known Lurchers. (...Spanreed incident.)

I also just wanted to state I think there are other strong arguments for v!Beagle besides Beagle being targeted last night: Beagle is the one who asked for the Kanga pivot. When Gecko proposed the tie/switch plan, he actually suggested Weasel (whom I v!lean and I think there's some argument for v!Weasel off Weasel hardpushing Kanga during D1.) Beagle asked for the Kanga pivot and backed it up by voting Kanga - that's a very strange thing to do when v!Axl was going to get exed (unless you think e!Axl, which I no longer buy FWIW) and v!DF was still endangered. Why pick Kanga over Gecko's proposal of Weasel? For that matter, why steer the exe to an Elim at all when the consensus initially was to just leave the trains as they were with Axl dying?

In terms of causality, Beagle is probably the most directly connected to Kanga getting exed. I wouldn't revise read unless it's lategame, Beagle is still alive, and we've hit enough bad exes that it's clear we've falsely cleared someone.

...Connects to your deepwolf point.

There might or might not be one; it depends on the Elim team's comp and their comfort with that niche. I think Croc for instance was going for a thread controller play, which can be deepwolf-adjacent though I take Beagle's point they're not very distancey by nature. Deepwolf world requires them to do pretty non-Elim things, so I am not too concerned with paranoia-hunting for them rn because finding a deepwolf always means shooting  in the people who look pretty Villagery first and that's a perverse incentive because those are the people we should be Village crediting. Killing too many of the people who look very Village to find a deepwolf also means you enter an endgame with people who look pretty sus which is a bad endgame landscape to be playing in.

Deepwolf still has teammates - when those teammates are dead, we'll have more info and space to go deepwolf hunting if the game hasn't ended. By that point, the deepwolf should also have done some more sus things, which makes them easier to find.

Not saying we can't but especially in a game where I don't know the player comp, I do want to remind people about PoE prioritisation (I'll blame some very spicy experiences on this forum lol) - some reads are robust enough that while they could be deepwolves, you revise only into lategame, some reads are weak enough they should be revised earlier. Deepwolf hunting is part of this. (tldr; don't paranoia exe Beagle, in most worlds Beagle is just dead by endgame, if Beagle somehow isn't and is more sus by then, then start worrying.)

31 minutes ago, Scarlet Octopus said:

I would also note I have almost no experience deepwolf hunting, so I wouldn't be worrying about it until later 

What's a deepwolf?

[Scarlet Octopus]

1 minute ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

What's a deepwolf?

An Elim who pretends to be a villager full-time, earning the trust of the villagers, usually ending up the last living Elim, it's not super common, but it happens.