Taupe Gecko Posted January 13 Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said: How do you know? About Cham’s Lurcher claim? Cause they told us and later changed to Tineye, which is also fake… BLOODBATH
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Melon Dingo said: Wait, but we're winning, why not? Personally I vote for Gecko Bloodbath It'd be fun if we ended this game with as few villagers dead probably something that I haven't really seen before
Melon Dingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: It'd be fun if we ended this game with as few villagers dead probably something that I haven't really seen before Ok ok you make a good point... but WHAT IF and here me out here... we STILL end with as few dead as possible BECAUSE the LURCHERS have 99.9% accuracy? We could have no one dead AND hit the record for most lurches or whatever WHY am I CAPITALIZING words strANGly? No idea I just feel like it :P Edited January 13 by Melon Dingo Removed an extra space. Iykyk. I pinky swear not AI
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said: Ok ok you make a good point... but WHAT IF and here me out here... we STILL end with as few dead as possible BECAUSE the LURCHERS have 99.9% accuracy? We could have no one dead AND hit the record for most lurches or whatever WHY am I CAPITALIZING words strANGly? No idea I just feel like it :P I mean, it would be better if the coinshots also didn't end up shooting village, which I think might happen since I don't think we have super a consensus on who among who's left is elim
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 hour ago, Melon Dingo said: 6-7 Brain r o t Coinshots are well able to investigate the present suspect pool. Terminate. The side subjects will take additional cogitation cycles. Lack of verbosity. Onyx Flamingo validation required of Opal Lion, Pearl Chameleon.
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Ivory Dragonfly said: Brain r o t Coinshots are well able to investigate the present suspect pool. Terminate. The side subjects will take additional cogitation cycles. Lack of verbosity. Onyx Flamingo validation required of Opal Lion, Pearl Chameleon. So should I seek @Melon Dingo, @Opal Lion, or @Pearl Chameleon? Those are the main contenders, I think.
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 13 Posted January 13 5 hours ago, Opal Lion said: If I'm being completely "fr" as they say, I am not the worst shot here because I do not impact accidentally shooting a strong Loyalist role, in case you want to clear the chance that I'm the Saboteur Smoker. Quote Heron: I'd genuinely like an answer by end of C3 because I think it affects how we should be playing the game, depending on whether the refusal to do anything about those two players suggests they are actually not inactives and are (somehow) lurking and sending in orders without filter pressure or not. Lion last logged in on 4th Jan so I'm guessing that Lion is a genuine inactive but Pearl Chameleon has a 7th Jan 1159hrs login which makes me feel that there might be something going on there I'm probably leaning towards it being Cham
Scarlet Octopus Posted January 13 Posted January 13 39 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: So should I seek @Melon Dingo, @Opal Lion, or @Pearl Chameleon? Lion or Dingo. But I'm leaning toward Dingo, just based on activity
Violet Axolotl Posted January 13 Posted January 13 46 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: So should I seek @Melon Dingo, @Opal Lion, or @Pearl Chameleon? Those are the main contenders, I think. I feel like cham or lion Edit: Destruction It'll increase our chances of winning, assuming there are only a few elims left.
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 At some point here someone is going to confuse a Coinshot into shooting a Seek target Guys we really need to disaggregate both target pools if you want night shooting @Onyx Flamingo @Melon Dingo @Scarlet Octopus @Sunburst Toucan Dingo, Flam: Not asking you to declare but more asking if you guys would consider steering clear of CS targets to avoid wasting tempo. Honestly at this stage of the game I lean No Kill but am ok with a shot in Lion/Cham (sorry guys) and would like a scan in Rhino/Dingo/Axl/Weasel. Particularly Dingo since V!Dingo guarantees scan integrity. FWIW, if I've forgotten: @Plum Rhinoceros Who did you Soothe? If a Seeker finds a Smoked target, then we know the Elims have at least two members left, because a Smoker cannot Smoke and kill at the same time. @The Unknown Medallion / @A Jo in the Bush is this correct? I see y'all turned Smoking into a turn-by-turn voluntary thing.
Melon Dingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Mint Heron said: At some point here someone is going to confuse a Coinshot into shooting a Seek target Guys we really need to disaggregate both target pools if you want night shooting @Onyx Flamingo @Melon Dingo @Scarlet Octopus @Sunburst Toucan Dingo, Flam: Not asking you to declare but more asking if you guys would consider steering clear of CS targets to avoid wasting tempo. Honestly at this stage of the game I lean No Kill but am ok with a shot in Lion/Cham (sorry guys) and would like a scan in Rhino/Dingo/Axl/Weasel. Particularly Dingo since V!Dingo guarantees scan integrity. FWIW, if I've forgotten: @Plum Rhinoceros Who did you Soothe? If a Seeker finds a Smoked target, then we know the Elims have at least two members left, because a Smoker cannot Smoke and kill at the same time. @The Unknown Medallion / @A Jo in the Bush is this correct? I see y'all turned Smoking into a turn-by-turn voluntary thing. Stormseeker the Observant casually walked past Zense. Smiling while listening to the music. There was a certain magic in music. One that filled one's soul in a way not even Breath could when short on them. "Aye Captain, no use in wasting a Seek, in my opinion" he replied to the question and kept walking. Stormseeker considered, as he was out of Breath yet again, asking around to see if anyone could help him. He didn't need another for another couple days yet but it was always safer to get ahead of these things. That said, now didn't feel like the moment to interrupt the music... As he had that thought he tripped on a shoelace and tried to catch himself with Zense's baliset.
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Ninjaed by Dingo but we go on Like my main problem is that if your Seek targets are Dingo, Lion, Cham, and y'all want night shooting, who tf your CSes gonna shoot? Rhino? Axl? Why are we shooting less suspect people and scanning more suspect people? That's just perverse. That's why I think we really have two main options: A. Go for a no kill for tonight and Seekers freely pick targets among those suggested so far, or: B. Accept the Seekers scanning in <Dingo, Rhino, Axl> because scanning Cham and Lion while calmly shooting Rhino, Axl, or Dingo as other suspects is just perverse. Maximum lethality should stay at the bottom of the PoE, not start at a higher/"somewhat more Villagery" tier. I'm pro-No Kill tonight because of the coordination issues but just want to avoid wasted scans and shots.
Melon Dingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 How did I ninja you when you were the previous post and your new post says the same thing as the last post in different words
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Edit: Basically in B world the killable targets are always just Cham and Lion (sorry.) Just now, Melon Dingo said: How did I ninja you when you were the previous post and your new post says the same thing as the last post in different words I just wanted to spell out the two sets of options more clearly tbh. Partly because I don't want wasted scans but also feel you/Weasel etc are solveable and if we don't point out the issues, we get a pointless hero shoot that's counterproductive because we have a good monopoly on successful NK blocks atm.
Opal Lion Posted January 13 Posted January 13 NOTICE TO @Mint Heron 1. You are officially in charge of continuing my studies if I am murdered. [ALERT: There are 3156 new files in your inbox]
Taupe Gecko Posted January 13 Posted January 13 29 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Who did you Soothe? They claimed Zebra All right guys don’t have time for RP tonight (sleepover) but I wish you all the best and hope I don’t die Wait I’m gonna be online tomorrow morning Lol Night
Taupe Gecko Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Nvm I can RP a tiny bit H.E.A.R.T.H’s cogs and gears trembled as he reached to charge himself for the final time in the day. If he had eyes in this form, he would shut them; if given a choice, he would step away. Yet the people of the TYRIAN deserved better. And he had to know the truth. For a while, the ship was silent; but it was never silent for H.E.A.R.T.H. There was always the hum of the engines, the steady reassurance that the spores continued to function. But even that was beginning to falter. For a while, H.E.A.R.T.H waited. His hands would not take the final step. He was a coward. He knew it, oh if only he could accept it. But there was no recognition for cowardice, not even a silent reward. The thought of simply not charging crossed H.E.A.R.T.H’s mind - but he dismissed jt just as quickly. He would have to be brave. He had been brave, in the past. H.E.A.R.T.H thought of the soldier who trecked through damnation for passion, never knowing when respite would arrive. He thought of the man who ran into battle, prepared to die because there was so much more important than his life. He thought of the boy scared to leap the gorge, but who did it anyway, for that girl’s smile - for her hand on the other side. He thought of Zense, of Levin, of Echo. They needed him. They needed him strong. He would see them on the other side. And so H.E.A.R.T.H plugged himself in, and everything went dark. Dark, and then the haunting sound of a whistle arrived.
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 10 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: NOTICE TO @Mint Heron 1. You are officially in charge of continuing my studies if I am murdered. [ALERT: There are 3156 new files in your inbox] Yeah, sorry Lion. I feel like your non-distro posts should be readable, but I'm also functioning on low battery rn, and in a game where your predecessor/you had a voting record, I would probably feel more confident on assigning you a bracket but rn it's just a mass of shrug. Similar for Cham really. Accepting DF's point about the Cham timing and potential for being the Smoker contact. Wrt whoever who suggested that Ele Smoked Croc... I think the main issue is that Villagers tend to be more reluctant to hit the Smoke button due to scan worries, except in endgames. If anything, Araris, Wyrm, Drake, myself, and a few other Tyrian GMs have been - wow this sentence is completely not deanonymising at all - fighting a losing war for a while in terms of trying to incentivise Smoking from Villagers. It's not impossible, but it would surprise me regardless. 12 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: They claimed Zebra Smart. Safe target + at least we know no Smoker targeted Zebra in the Day. Would've asked you to do a net-zero Riot if I had brain power but I didn't that night so sorry about it. 4 hours ago, Melon Dingo said: The only way 2 v!CS makes sense is if either there is a e!Lurcher or it's assumed that v!Lurchers will inevitably protect elims at some point. But if that was the case, we started the game with the double protect rule being valid meaning many people were likely just going to self protect over and over as I think that's the optimal strategy. The flip side/corollary to me is that IDK if the infinite self-protect rule gets revoked if the Elims had a Coinshot, because prior to this, Jo and TUM ruled that Lurchers can die from being double-tapped. So if the model is they will always self-protect, then you just get coordination for a double-tap = Villager dies. (Noteworthy that the odds the v!CS will coordinate are lower because you have to claim, get past the Spiderman pointing, and also, PM odds are low because while you do have four Mistborn (sorry if I got the numbers wrong, tired), metals don't repeat in this game.) That + not much Smoking power/incentive Village side and two Elim Seekers seems to point to, in an E!CS world, high capacity for surgical strikes, on the self-protect model. I guess I'm saying I agree with you tentatively about the E!Lurcher, I simply think that we can't assume that the E!Lurcher in question actually declared their role accurately, which means that the target in question in this case may not even be within the four Lurcher pool. (More thinking aloud than replying Dingo at this juncture lol sorry Dingo) : It looks like we are left with only so many worlds to make sense of this. A. One CS is Evil -> Either Octo actually gunned down a teammate (goddamn, Octo!), or Flam is lying and falsely cleared Toucan. (The main counterintuitive things that happened in this world are E!Octo shooting their team's thread control guy, or E!Toucan in this world actually upping and claiming to Octo before Flam claimed the scan. There's a side-world where E!Octo told E!Flam who then claimed the scan.) B. One Lurcher is Evil -> Either DF, Axl, Zebra, or Weasel is Evil. Alternatively, someone not in the Lurcher pool is the Evil Lurcher, who simply didn't declare their role. I think at this point it would need to be in <Beagle, Heron, Toucan, Albatross, Lion, Chameleon, Dingo, Flam.> There is a very weird world where Meerkat is actually the kandra who ate Kanga and flipped Seeker, and Flam simply claimed their teammate's scans FWIW ( @Oxblood Beagle ) which gives us a Flam + Zebra solve for last Elims. Flam being willing to scan tonight puts a bit of a pin in this since Flam either has to claim a scan on someone who got killed, or you know. Heron is easily resolved if I die tonight or, y'know, since I'm having a midnight snack on Meerkat. Lion, Cham, Dingo, Toucan are all theoretical places since Toucan technically was scanned by Flam. However, Toucan's claim is cross-validated by their behaviour, claim and Ocho. Beagle is #1 Villager at this point, Mistborn scan, but theoretically no validation of roleclaim. Wouldn't bet on this though. Tross is tied to Beagle due to Beagle's scan, which Tross confirms. (I ruled out Gecko and Rhino because we saw the Soothe today meaning Rhino cannot be a Lurcher, and Gecko did the Tineye thing. It's theoretically possible Gecko's teammate put it in, but yeah, it requires a second teammate within this pool probably.) In the DF, Axl, Zebra, or Weasel set, on the assumption the Zebra scan is accurate since we received it from Dingo and Meerkat, we should really be looking in <Axl, Weasel> before DF. I would actually slightly put Weasel before Axl due to Weasel's Octo crusade and Croc's behaviour on Axl, but yeah. I think this is it for me, my brain is just not braining anymore. Need sleep.
Taupe Gecko Posted January 13 Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: There is a very weird world where Meerkat is actually the kandra who ate Kanga and flipped Seeker, and Flam simply claimed their teammate's scans FWIW Hadn’t thought about that but does make sense Sleep
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: Hadn’t thought about that but does make sense Sleep I have work in a bit so it probably isn't happening but need sleep as in I will not try to get my brain to make this make sense anymore. Edited to add: Actually ok actual thought: it has to be an E!Smoker/Mistborn if true. I keep forgetting Smoking is Turn-based in this game. No Village Smoker would be Smoking at Night - it's counterproductive. You would Smoke in the Day to prevent Emotional Allomancy shenanigans. Edited January 13 by Mint Heron
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 13 Posted January 13 "Forecasting potential distribution of allomantic abilities..." "Assumption: the Saboteurs assembled their team intentionally and with purpose. It is not a lackadaisical assortment of random mistings. Each individual serves a purpose within the whole." "Caveat: humans are all insane and ascribing logical motives to them is playing with fire." "Multiple Saboteur Seekers suggests a team specification optimized for surgically eliminating high-value targets. Obviously, there are plenty such targets to go around, but the main synergy potential this unit detects is through cooperation with Saboteur Kandra. The Seekers identify valuable targets, and then the Kandra inherit high-value abilities." "Prediction: there are multiple Saboteur Kandra, preferably with higher generation. (Sub-Prediction: There is or was a Saboteur Kandra of generation 420.)" "This larcenous team composition functions less optimally without a Seeker but continues to function. Viability is greatly reduced without Kandra support." "Theoretically, a Saboteur team of multiple Seekers and multiple Kandra could hold its own against multiple Loyalist Coinshots and Lurchers, mainly by way of pilfering these abilities for additional firepower." "The 'swing' attribute of this composition is maximal, but this unit increasingly doubts that the Saboteur team was assembled to avert chaos." "Forecast complete. In the future, this unit may reset to explore alternative forecast branches." "Claim: this unit is a Loyalist Seeker." 1
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said: "Prediction: there are multiple Saboteur Kandra, preferably with higher generation. (Sub-Prediction: There is or was a Saboteur Kandra of generation 420.)" Am curious if this is a slip or if this implies that Cham isn't a kandra. Generation numbers go downward, I had to clarify this because 69 killed me.
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 12 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said: "Forecasting potential distribution of allomantic abilities..." "Assumption: the Saboteurs assembled their team intentionally and with purpose. It is not a lackadaisical assortment of random mistings. Each individual serves a purpose within the whole." "Caveat: humans are all insane and ascribing logical motives to them is playing with fire." "Multiple Saboteur Seekers suggests a team specification optimized for surgically eliminating high-value targets. Obviously, there are plenty such targets to go around, but the main synergy potential this unit detects is through cooperation with Saboteur Kandra. The Seekers identify valuable targets, and then the Kandra inherit high-value abilities." "Prediction: there are multiple Saboteur Kandra, preferably with higher generation. (Sub-Prediction: There is or was a Saboteur Kandra of generation 420.)" "This larcenous team composition functions less optimally without a Seeker but continues to function. Viability is greatly reduced without Kandra support." "Theoretically, a Saboteur team of multiple Seekers and multiple Kandra could hold its own against multiple Loyalist Coinshots and Lurchers, mainly by way of pilfering these abilities for additional firepower." "The 'swing' attribute of this composition is maximal, but this unit increasingly doubts that the Saboteur team was assembled to avert chaos." "Forecast complete. In the future, this unit may reset to explore alternative forecast branches." "Claim: this unit is a Loyalist Seeker." How can we trust your 3rd claim? I am considering Seeking you purely so I can finally figure out who you are.
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 6 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: How can we trust your 3rd claim? I am considering Seeking you purely so I can finally figure out who you are. If not already implied, Cham has said they will be attaching a random claim to every post. They don't want to claim. At this point we either scan them or resolve them with CS, or you know, do the normal reads thing, though Cham and Lion are coming in at a disadvantage.
Opal Lion Posted January 13 Posted January 13 [You notice a new alert on the terminal] NOTICE FOR THE CREW OF THE SS TYRIAN 1. If you wish to resolve my role, technically the correct play should be to shoot me and scan a role claim since I've claimed a vanilla Loyalist role and so am not as useful to the Loyalists. From your perspective either (a) I am a lying Saboteur, in which case you'd like me to die, or (b) I am genuinely just a vanilla Loyalist. If I were a Loyalist with a role, I would've claimed it already since lying about it would be foolish here. (This is my way of saying it's all good if you want to shoot me in this situation but I will haunt you from the grave if you do not take responsibility for my studies. I cannot lose hundreds of hours of work to this!!) 2. You (designation "Mint Heron") will still be in charge of furthering my research in my permanent absence, should this occur. Failing this, I believe figure H.E.A.R.T.H aka "Taupe Gecko" would be suitable for this duty. 3. I would prefer to stay alive as I have not finished reading the latest dissertation from the leading Rosharan scholars. 4. Again, I still believe the current known Saboteur roles imply the remaining 1-2 Saboteurs should have stronger roles, including one with firepower potential (whether this is Mistborn or Coinshot). Otherwise we would not be in this situation. You would have a group of Loyalists with enough potential firepower to level a small space station. No smart group of Saboteurs would ever dare to attack.
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