The Original Vessels

[Jult]

Looking at the original 16 Vessels, there are:

• 8 confirmed dead (Aona, Skai, Leras, Ati, Rayse, Tanavast, Uli Da, and the unnamed holder of Virtuosity)
• 1 probably dead (Medalantorius)
• 3 confirmed alive (Koravellium Avast, Edgli, and Bavadin)
• 4 probably alive (Chan Ko Sar, Euridrius, and the unnamed Vessels of Mercy and Whimsy)

I personally suspect that all 16 of these Vessels will be dead by the end of the final book. Assuming this is true, I'm curious to see everyone's thoughts on which of the remaining 7 surviving will be next to fall. Here are my thoughts in order of who I think is most likely to fall.

1. Edgli - It may be surprising that I have her first. But Edgli just has a lot of small factors that don't add up in her favor.
   • She's isolated and refuses to work together with other Shards
   • As far as we know, she's pretty immobile and remains in the vicinity of Nalthis at all times
   • The people of her planet barely know about her and have little reason to follow her
   • Her method of Investiture is either shunned or abused on most of Nalthis
   • This one is very speculative: but I think she's an easy target for Taravangian because her Splinters that reside in the Returned could make her vulnerable to some kind of Oathpact-type tactic
2. Koravellium - My argument for her is much shorter. While she may have some more cards up her sleeve, I don't think she does. I think she played her whole hand and lost. And now she doesn't have anything left to defend herself with.
3. Euridius and Whimsy's Vessel - We know so little about these 2 that I don't really know how to rank them. So, I've put them together in the middle.
4. Chan Ko Sar - We don't know much about Invention's Vessel either. But we do know that they've been cooking up something big in the form of the Grand Apparatus. Based on that and pure gut instinct, I'm saying they have a better chance than anyone above them.
5. Mercy's Vessel - I have Mercy's Vessel down low on this list mainly because of a personal, tinfoil hat theory. I think Mercy is going to be an antagonistic force in the future. I think in the same way that Ati willed Ruin towards being the least harmful version of itself, she has willed Mercy into being the worst version of itself: Euthanasia. And that her first victim was Ambition. This idea is mostly dead due to some bragging from Rayse to Tanavast in WAT. But since when is Rayse a perfect source for truth? Anyway, IF my crazy ideas are right, then she'll be a villain, and I think she'll be alive long enough to earn that title. 
6. Bavadin - I think Bavadin will be the last original Vessel standing. She's stacked so many resources and avatars in her favor. AND she's made it difficult to reach Taldain at all. She's got a powerful offensive and defensive strategy and she's been preparing for conflicts since day one.

[Nitpicking]

Why do you say that Awakening is shunned on most of Nalthis?

[Jult]

1 hour ago, Nitpicking said:

Why do you say that Awakening is shunned on most of Nalthis?

I said "Shunned or abused".

"Shunned" referring to places like Idris where they consider their Breath to be intimately linked to their soul. They consider holding the Breaths of others to be sinful. Using them to Awaken is considered to be an even greater sin.

"Abused" referring to places like Hallandren where Breaths are hoarded and a super unbalanced class system has been built around them.

I guess my main point was that most Nalthians don't love Awakening as a system and probably wouldn't be eager to help Edgli.

[KaladinsSenseOfHumourSpren He/Him]

I must disagree with Bavadin. Taravangian will most likely try and strike a deal with her, then force her to break her word. She is his biggest threat to cosmere supremacy.

[Through The Living Ash he/him]

I would place Whimsy lower on this list. As it is relatively unimportant compared to the other Shards, I cannot envision it being targeted until a while off. 

[Jult]

16 hours ago, KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren said:

I must disagree with Bavadin. Taravangian will most likely try and strike a deal with her, then force her to break her word. She is his biggest threat to cosmere supremacy.

I do agree that she's the biggest threat. I just don't think Taravangian will go for her first. I think he'll lose if he rushes into conflict with her. So, it would be smarter for him to go after weaker targets before her.

Also, this may or may not be relevant, but we know from the below WoB that Odium and Autonomy had some kind of agreement:

Quote

Double

Rayse (Odium) was very methodical with the order in which he went after other Shards. Hypothetically if he'd visited the Rosharan system all those years ago but managed to avoid being trapped and was able to continue his mission right away, which of the known Shards would've been next up on Rayse's hit list?

Brandon Sanderson

He expected Ruin to implode. So he might have gone for Autonomy, double crossing them.

Dragonsteel Mini-Con 2021 (Nov. 22, 2021)

This might be void now that Rayse is out of the picture. But if Todium is in anyway still beholden to this agreement, Honor may not let him break it.

19 minutes ago, epl2 said:

I would place Whimsy lower on this list. As it is relatively unimportant compared to the other Shards, I cannot envision it being targeted until a while off. 

Fair. I really struggled with Whimsy's placement. If their Intent is as chaotic and unpredictable as I'm imagining, I feel like they could pop up anywhere at any time. I do think you're right that no one would actively target them for a while since they don't feel like an active threat to anyone.

But, at the same time, if they just whimsically choose to pop in and say 'Hello' to the newest Vessel on the block... well... that could end poorly. 

Wildcards be wild .

[Armadillo]

21 hours ago, Jult said:

I have Mercy's Vessel down low on this list mainly because of a personal, tinfoil hat theory. I think Mercy is going to be an antagonistic force in the future. I think in the same way that Ati willed Ruin towards being the least harmful version of itself, she has willed Mercy into being the worst version of itself: Euthanasia. And that her first victim was Ambition. This idea is mostly dead due to some bragging from Rayse to Tanavast in WAT. But since when is Rayse a perfect source for truth? Anyway, IF my crazy ideas are right, then she'll be a villain, and I think she'll be alive long enough to earn that title. 

I have this tin foil hat conspiracy too! My evidence, on top of yours, also comes from Harmony's letter to Hoid in Rhythm of War.

Ch 25: "Whimsy was not terribly useful, and Mercy worries me..."
Ch 27: "That said, the most worrying thing I discovered in this was the wound upon the Spiritual Realm where Ambition, Mercy, and Odium clashed—and Ambition was destroyed. The effects on the planet Threnody have been … disturbing."

Those two in conjunction with each other make me think that Mercy and Odium teamed up to take down Ambition.

Although since this is so off-topic, maybe we should start a different discussion group for this particular point haha. If there isn't one already. Is there one already???

(Edit) Found it:

 

Edited May 13, 2025 by Armadillo

[Jult]

49 minutes ago, Armadillo said:

I have this tin foil hat conspiracy too! My evidence, on top of yours, also comes from Harmony's letter to Hoid in Rhythm of War.

Ch 25: "Whimsy was not terribly useful, and Mercy worries me..."
Ch 27: "That said, the most worrying thing I discovered in this was the wound upon the Spiritual Realm where Ambition, Mercy, and Odium clashed—and Ambition was destroyed. The effects on the planet Threnody have been … disturbing."

Those two in conjunction with each other make me think that Mercy and Odium teamed up to take down Ambition.

Although since this is so off-topic, maybe we should start a different discussion group for this particular point haha. If there isn't one already. Is there one already???

(Edit) Found it:

 

Wow thanks for finding that! They dug into this thoroughly. I'm more convinced than ever.