Are the Unmade Double Agents of Valor?

[Lightspine]

There's been a lot of theorization going around about Valor being a fourth shard hiding in Roshar. The following theory emerged as I considered the possibility, and though it might be a crackpot idea, I think it has a lot of circumstantial evidence. Let me take you through the thought process.

Part I: Why is Valor Hiding?

As I mentioned in the introduction, there are hints to a fourth shard inhabiting Roshar. Specifically, something is certainly hidden underneath the Shattered Plains, among the fallen fragments of what was once a fourth moon.

At the same time, there's a lot of emphasis placed on the mystery of Valor's whereabouts. Todium, Tanavast, and Wit are all unable to locate them. And yet, hiding seems specifically antithetical to their Intent. How does remaining hidden could align with Valor? I could think of one answer: Hiding behind enemy lines, putting themselves in immediate danger in order to undermine and influence Odium.

First of all, this reconciles hiding in the same location as Odium's shardpool. When Venli discovered the shardpool, I thought that it wouldn't be Odium's, and would instead belong to the fourth shard. However, it is clearly proven to be Odium's at the end of the book, when it fills with Warlight. El's interlude chapter also heavily implies that Odium knows about this Shardpool, so it certainly does not belong to Valor.

My theory is that Valor is hiding by essentially surrounding themselves in Odium's power, and therefore only act upon the world by reaching through Odium. In doing this, they risk being destroyed by Odium upon discovery. I understand that there is no precedent for a Shard doing this. But whatever Valor is doing, it's unprecedented anyways.

Part II: What is Valor Doing?

The Intent of Valor wouldn't allow them to simply hide and observe, but would urge them to act. We know from Endowment's letters in this book that they and Valor have "dealings" but otherwise know next to nothing about what they might be up to.

But we do know some things that Endowment has been doing. Despite refusing to intervene on Roshar at Hoid's request, her actions have certainly influenced the planet. Most notably, she had a direct hand in turning Vasher into a Returned and the creation of Nightblood, thereby allowing Taravangian to kill Rayse and become Odium. Cultivation's plan would have been impossible without the actions of Endowment. Their plans are certainly intertwined (consider that Lift, the third individual to receive Cultivation's direct touch, is now being trained to realize her full potential by Vasher).

A lot of people have also identified the moment that Taravangian kills Rayse as evidence of Valor's meddling, since he feels an incredible surge of bravery during that pivotal moment. I agree. But I also think there's more going on here.

First of all, this occurs while Taravangian is in what is essentially a vision being granted by Odium. Valor being able to influence him under those conditions is one of the reasons I believe Valor must be hiding from within Odium's power. How else to explain direct but unnoticed intervention by another shard within Odium's vision?

Secondly, there are other key players to Cultivation's plan for Taravangian: Sja-Anat and Moelach.

Sja-Anat's role is rather direct: she supplies the corrupted windspren that bring Odium's attention upon Taravangian. 

Moelach's influence is more subtle, but I also think it is more compelling; because while Cultivation's future sight should allow her to foresee the actions of a being like Sja-Anat, Moelach touching the Spiritual Realm should shield them from such foresight much like Renarin's future is hidden from Odium.

And yet, it is a Death Rattle that makes Taravangian believe Gavilar and leads him to Cultivation's touch at the Valley. Taravangian's dying mother specifically sees the moment where Gavilar names the Night of Sorrows as they look upon a map of Roshar. How could Cultivation have foreseen what someone else would observe in the Spiritual Realm?

This plan should have been impossible.

This is my thesis; Cultivation, Endowment, and Valor are working in concert. Cultivation acts through Dalinar, Taravangian, and Lift. Endowment uses Vasher and Nightblood. And Valor's chess pieces are the Unmade.

Part III: The Unmade Kinda Suck

While analyzing the actions of the Unmade, I've come to notice how frequently Odium's plans for them fail or they act against his interests. Only when he commands them directly do they seem to do anything productive to his cause.

Obviously, Sja-Anat and Ba-Ado-Mishram both seek to undermine their god. But what of the others?

Nergaoul's greatest contribution to Odium's war is probably turning Sadeas' army at the Battle of Thaylen Field, but they are ultimately defeated and captured. While Rayse hoped to use him to shape Dalinar into his champion, Nergaoul's influence ultimately leads Dalinar to fulfill Cultivation's desires.

Re-Shephir doesn't really accomplish much beyond murdering a few people in Urithiru. In fact, her encounter with Shallan is what teaches the Coalition that the Unmade can be captured, which wins them the Battle of Thaylen Field. She also incorrectly reports to the Fused that the Sibling is dead.

Moelach's Death Rattles only directly influence the actions of characters twice, as far as I can tell (please let me know if I've forgotten an instance, there are a LOT of death rattles). The first time I've already mentioned—Taravangian heeds Gavilar's warning because of a Death Rattle. The second takes place within Winds and Truth, leading Sigzil to renounce his oaths in order to save his spren. What's more, despite the climax of this book being the single most common subject of Death Rattles ("Night of sorrows", never-ending storm, homeland crumbling to dusk, suckling child etc...) it clearly catches Todium off guard. Whatever information Moelach is gleaning about the future isn't being effectively utilized by either Rayse nor Todium.

Yelig-nar is scary, but hasn't won any critical battles. Aesudan didn't really do much. Arguably the greatest fallout of Amaram utilizing his power is that it leads Rock to pick up a weapon, and therefore return to the Horneater Peaks. Their presence at the Shattered Plains in this book was pretty inconsequential.

Ashertmarn does successfully incapacitate Kholinar's leadership, but doesn't prevent the Radiants from reaching the Oathgate and doesn't harm them in Shadesmar. Kholinar's fall can mostly be pinned on Sja-Anat taking control of the Oathgate, but we already know she isn't entirely loyal.

Dai-Gonarthis successfully delivers Todium's army to the Shattered Plains. In net, however, this doesn't really benefit Todium. They lose the Plains to the Listener treaty, and the forces that the Coalition expends on the Plains couldn't have been diverted elsewhere anyways—its not like using Dai-Gonarthis here made any of the other warfronts more winnable. And in return for that, she'll demand a price from Todium—now Retribution—that we have yet to see. (You might argue that Dai-Gonarthis would have won Todium the battle if not for the unforeseen intervention of the Listeners. But if Valor really is the fourth Shard hidden in the Shattered Plains, then she almost certainly had an active hand in guiding the Listeners to seek Narak.)

Chemoarish has been completely MIA so far, and might not even be the name of the ninth Unmade.

So yeah, that's all of the Unmade and how much they've helped Odium so far. After doing the math, only Ashertmarn, Yelig-nar, and maybe Nergaoul have helped Odium, and they've had very little say in the matter. The other Unmade arguably all detract from him. To me this seems suspiciously incompetent.

Unless they're double agents—in which case they've actually done a very good job. As we see in Sja-Anat's RoW interlude, they will be re-Unmade if they are discovered acting against him. They are Valor's brave soldiers, submitting themselves to this risk in order to expose Odium's weaknesses to his enemies at critical times.

Part IV: I Know I'm Probably Wrong

This theory has been built entirely on wild speculation and thumbtacking-string-on-corkboard-type thinking. There's no direct evidence for any of this. I know there's probably holes in this theory that I haven't seen (and invite everyone to point them out). This doesn't address Tanavast noticing people ("new ones, watchers, who had been hidden from me") among the Fourth Moon shards. This doesn't tie in the Unoathed, who I've seen people rightfully speculate are the products of Valor.

But darn it, there's just enough circumstance here for me to want to believe in it. I rest my case.

[Ewery1]

This is SUCH a cool theory. You’ve completely convinced me and it also helps explain why we have such little information about the Unmade’s creation - because that info is better suited to the back half and the section where we learn about how secretly Valor was there influencing it the whole time.

The idea of the shard of Valor being so valorous as to hide within its enemy’s power is SO cool. I hope this is real.