Crackpot theories after finishing The Lost Metal

[AleStaar he/him]

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Sazed has master plans

I know this may end up being an unpopular opinion. But the epilogue came across as if Sazed has been operating as the Chessmaster the entire time, all part of a coordinated effort to outmaneuver Autonomy, to make her withdraw her army and interest in Telsin. I think a lot of little quotes in The Lost Metal, and certain quotes in the previous books, point to Sazed subtly maneuvering everyone - Wax, Wayne, Marasi, Kelsier and his Ghostbloods, Marsh, Tobal and Maraga, Steris (?). All with very powerful, very subtle future sight to make specific outcomes come to fruition.

Since chapter 19 I suspected Sazed had a plan in motion, one that needed him to arrange “help” unaware they were mobilized to be the “help.” One that required him to play games over and over with Autonomy. This suspicion came back once Wax speculated he always intended for Wax to be the Sword that stops a God Metal bomb.

Chapter 71 confirmed aspects of future sight I was curious about… ever since I started analyzing the Terris Prophecies. Sazed confirmed that he can see future possibilities, automatically analyze something as complex as a harmonium-trellium bomb, has thoughts that move much faster than Wax or Wayne, and can discern the probabilities of an action (i.e. 1% chance of success, 99% chance of failure). He even fleshed out what Fuzz warned Kelsier - even future sight as great as Preservation can be wrong. But he also confirmed that while Shards see future possibilities and analyze probabilities, they don’t always know why a possibility is good. This eased my suspicions.

But then Kelsier’s epilogue came along. While I don’t think Sazed is acting “all is perfectly according to keikaku”I think he’s acting close enough. I think he was ultimately keeping certain, ultimate future outcomes in mind. The responses to Kelsier’s frustration made alarm bells ring in my mind:

"I had it in hand." 
"Luck is a different thing to a god who can see futures, I think."
"I have it in hand." 
"People should discover it on their own. If they do not, there are subtle consequences."

What if Sazed always knew Trell was Autonomy? After all Autonomy created Trelagism, and we know from book 3’s epilogue that Preservation hid “gems” in Trelagism to help the Hero of Ages. What if he let Autonomy’s plans get to this stage, knowing he could efficiently arrange pieces that could stop her? Or maybe he bet it would be the perfect event to encourage the continents to advance and progress?

What if Sazed was betting on Wax fulfilling his duties after the Lessie fiasco? What if he intentionally molded Wayne into the Slider who could accomplish the partial detonation? What if he knows the history of Scadrian eugenics and discerning what could happen if he directly GIVES knowledge of future tech?

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His name shall be Discord, and they shall love him for it.

It’s obvious that Sazed is becoming Discord. Or perhaps, he’s already Discord by the time of Kelsier’s epilogue.

There’s clearly something going on with Sazed’s Shard, we just don’t know what. Harmony’s Intent left him unable to act, creating a state where every action needs equilibrium between P&R’s attributes. And there was a dark shadow throughout TLM. Kelsier speculates the shadow exists because Ruin was always stronger. Marsh’s interview with Khriss implies it may be the result of Ruin being subservient to Preservation.

My theory is Discord will be a good thing. Sazed directly educated Wax and Wayne about the bomb’s mechanics AND told them how to detonate it. Dulled the wave coming over Wax. Arranged for under 10 people to foil Autonomy’s complex plans, while his future sight was BLINDED. This is the most effective he’s been yet. I think Discord will be a Shard representing Sazed’s realization that Ruin and Preservation can’t always be in exact balance. Sometimes, Preservation’s attributes are needed most. Other times, Ruin’s attributes are needed most. I believe this mindset allow him to act, to commit actions that are EITHER of Preservation or Ruin.

I think Sazed is just trying to carefully move through his web of future possibilities. Preservation seemingly foresaw Discord will be a good thing, but if Sazed makes the wrong move I bet he could invalidate that prediction.

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How to make the Bands of Mourning, Excisors, unkeyed metalminds

Unkeyed metalminds contain attributes that aren’t attached to a Feruchemist’s Identity. But without Full Feruchemists, it’s impossible for a sole Feruchemist to create an unkeyed metalmind.

My theory is the Southern Scadrians are extensively using the same method as the Set’s keep-people-alive Hemalurgy. I think to create an unkeyed metalmind, they’re using a Command and a very thin duralumin spike. This would rip off a piece of the Feruchemist’s Identity, making any future storing Identity-less.

I think the Excisors are nicrosil and/or duralumin spikes.

The Bands of Mourning is the really tough cookie. Kelsier is no longer an Allomancer and definitely not a Feruchemist, so he couldn’t use his own powers to create the Bands. There’s no way he used Northerners to make them. There are a lot of logistics issues. My theory is Sazed directly created the Bands of Mourning and guided Kelsier into hiding it. It wouldn’t be the first time Sazed subtly helped the Southerners.

Edited July 30, 2024 by Ale the Metallic Conjurer

[SwordNimiForPresident the sword/that sword]

23 hours ago, Ale the Metallic Conjurer said:

The Bands of Mourning is the really tough cookie. Kelsier is no longer an Allomancer and definitely not a Feruchemist, so he couldn’t use his own powers to create the Bands. There’s no way he used Northerners to make them. There are a lot of logistics issues. My theory is Sazed directly created the Bands of Mourning and guided Kelsier into hiding it. It wouldn’t be the first time Sazed subtly helped the Southerners.

We still don't know what happened to Spook after he stepped down from being "The Lord Mistborn". Last we saw of him was a Mistborn with a pile of Inquistitor spikes and Kelsier encouraging him to use them. Seems quite possible that he created the bands.

[Trusk'our he/him]

23 hours ago, Ale the Metallic Conjurer said:

The Bands of Mourning is the really tough cookie. Kelsier is no longer an Allomancer and definitely not a Feruchemist, so he couldn’t use his own powers to create the Bands. There’s no way he used Northerners to make them. There are a lot of logistics issues. My theory is Sazed directly created the Bands of Mourning and guided Kelsier into hiding it. It wouldn’t be the first time Sazed subtly helped the Southerners.

19 minutes ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

We still don't know what happened to Spook after he stepped down from being "The Lord Mistborn". Last we saw of him was a Mistborn with a pile of Inquistitor spikes and Kelsier encouraging him to use them. Seems quite possible that he created the bands.

We know that Kelsier was involved in the Band's creation. 

My guess is that he used his Sliver-expanded knowledge of the Allomancy and Feruchemy to aid Spook in their creation, likely utilizing Hemalurgic spikes leftover from dead Inquisitors to get the powers they didn't already have. 

Spoiler

https://wob.coppermind.net/events/314-salt-lake-city-signing/#e8921

Questioner

So I've always wondered, the Bands of Mourning, the actual spearhead that Wax uses. Was that made by the Lord Ruler or the Sovereign, or--

Brandon Sanderson

No. It was not made by the Lord Ruler. The Sovereign was involved.

 

[AleStaar he/him]

2 hours ago, SwordNimiForPresident said:

We still don't know what happened to Spook after he stepped down from being "The Lord Mistborn". Last we saw of him was a Mistborn with a pile of Inquistitor spikes and Kelsier encouraging him to use them. Seems quite possible that he created the bands.

 

2 hours ago, Trusk'our said:

We know that Kelsier was involved in the Band's creation. 

My guess is that he used his Sliver-expanded knowledge of the Allomancy and Feruchemy to aid Spook in their creation, likely utilizing Hemalurgic spikes leftover from dead Inquisitors to get the powers they didn't already have. 

My theory is at the very least, spikes were the Excisors. But I’m unsure about them being used to make the Bands. It seems impossible, especially after the creation of Harmony (if Khriss and Marsh’s musings are correct), to use Hemalurgy or the medallion-creation process to grant all 32 Metalborn powers. Much less manipulate Hemalurgic spikes to create the pinnacle of Metallic Arts tech. 

When you say they could’ve used Hemalurgic spikes to gain powers the Inquisitors didn’t have, that’s where the logistics problems come into play. The only remaining Full Feruchemist became God. The surviving Terris were people who didn’t awaken their powers, and whatever Feruchemical potential they passed broke down into Ferrings. 

The metals are another big problem. It took time for the Northern people to flat-out discover bendalloy, cadmium, chromium and nicrosil. And to discover aluminum deposits. Those metals and duralumin are very difficult and expensive to produce, even 340 years later. This is compounded by the fact Ferrings with Spiritual powers are very rare. The powers themselves aren’t well known by the Terris.

Kelsier and Spook couldn’t have Hemalurgically stolen those powers a mere ~12 years after the Catacendre. And that’s just for the Northern Continent. The Southern Continent didn’t even have Metalborn at first.

Stuff like this is why I think Sazed would’ve been involved in the Bands’ creation. He would automatically know who’s a specific Allomancer or Feruchemist, then could subtly guide Kelsier towards them. Plus as I said, I believe he subtly helped the Southerners. He gave them a perpendicularity and ettmetal.

[Trusk'our he/him]

7 hours ago, Ale the Metallic Conjurer said:

 

My theory is at the very least, spikes were the Excisors. But I’m unsure about them being used to make the Bands. It seems impossible, especially after the creation of Harmony (if Khriss and Marsh’s musings are correct), to use Hemalurgy or the medallion-creation process to grant all 32 Metalborn powers. Much less manipulate Hemalurgic spikes to create the pinnacle of Metallic Arts tech. 

When you say they could’ve used Hemalurgic spikes to gain powers the Inquisitors didn’t have, that’s where the logistics problems come into play. The only remaining Full Feruchemist became God. The surviving Terris were people who didn’t awaken their powers, and whatever Feruchemical potential they passed broke down into Ferrings. 

The metals are another big problem. It took time for the Northern people to flat-out discover bendalloy, cadmium, chromium and nicrosil. And to discover aluminum deposits. Those metals and duralumin are very difficult and expensive to produce, even 340 years later. This is compounded by the fact Ferrings with Spiritual powers are very rare. The powers themselves aren’t well known by the Terris.

Kelsier and Spook couldn’t have Hemalurgically stolen those powers a mere ~12 years after the Catacendre. And that’s just for the Northern Continent. The Southern Continent didn’t even have Metalborn at first.

Stuff like this is why I think Sazed would’ve been involved in the Bands’ creation. He would automatically know who’s a specific Allomancer or Feruchemist, then could subtly guide Kelsier towards them. Plus as I said, I believe he subtly helped the Southerners. He gave them a perpendicularity and ettmetal.

Ah, that's true, but not all powers would even need to be given at once; if Spook used spike that granted F-nicrosil and either had a F-aluminum spike or an added Feruchemical power spike with no attached Identity, he could store his powers plus the Feruchemical one.

How they fit all powers into a single Metalmind is the greater accomplishment in my opinion, as the other Unsealed Metalminds we've seen are highly limited in the number of powers they can hold. 

Kelsier's expanded knowledge of Allomancy and Feruchemy would likely explain how they made such a device. 

And as for the powers not yet available Pre-Catacendre, they would have to make more spikes, but I think that they had sufficient time to do so, and once again Kelsier having knowledge he shouldn't have had would aid in the discovery of metals previously unknown.