Pearl Chameleon Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Chartreuse Penguin Pearl Chameleon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Pearl Chameleon said: Why have you village read his posting? Because you're basically grasping at straws to read penguin village. I told you. Gut. His posts seem villagery. I like the work he's putting forth. e!him has shown ample times that he likes to fade into the background but he's posted multiple kinds of analysis posts, NKAs, etc throughout the whole game. The cases on him are not convincing. D1 doesn't adequately incriminate him. He could be evil, but he's by no means the most evil player out there by any metric I've seen. 1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said: Oh and I like Kangaroo's posts today so far Ditto^ 6 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said: I have multiple times and will not again Here. Read. Do you disagree with my assessment that your case isn't very good? I mean, obviously. But you didn't comment specifically on why, you just keep repeating that you're right which is extremely unhelpful. I think you're village but I definitely think you're tunneling here. That case of yours is very much grasping at straws and, in some instances, is blatantly false. If you think I'm wrong about your case, then please explain why in real terms. Not responding to cases is extremely NAI, at least for me, especially when I don't think they're very good. e!me gets tilted when someone is tunneling me and responds more. Albatross. Can't remember if they have votes but they do now. Other thought-- if v!Penguin, I also think v!Swan because I don't think e!Swan posts Penguin sus and doesn't vote Penguin given the current vote state if Swan is elim and Penguin is village. With e!Penguin, e!Swan is more possible but idk why they don't vote Iguana here. Edit: @Opal Lion I found an action for you :p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Edit: @Opal Lion I found an action for you :p. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Opal Lion said: ? Post above mine :p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 oh lol 6 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: e!me gets tilted when someone is tunneling me and responds more. Also completely irrelevant but I think that's interesting bc i get more annoyed when v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Just now, Opal Lion said: oh lol Also completely irrelevant but I think that's interesting bc i get more annoyed when v Yeah I almost didn't say that cause it's definitely a Me thing but fwiw I think Penguin is someone who wouldn't care to defend themselves either way; look at their reaction to getting voted D1, it was basically "Well I'll get to extend my record!" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 4 hours ago, Opal Lion said: Also for everyone talking about potential vote manip on D1 wrt Penguin- Penguin wasn't a wagon that was in contention for the entire day. They only showed up as an option about 30 minutes before EoD. 30 Minutes doesn't give people a lot of time to submit manip actions if they aren't on already. I wasn’t online during EoD D1, but to anybody that was: do you remember if Tuatara was online at all? 4 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said: Fuchsia Ostrich knew I was a thug. I'm curious if @Oxblood Beagle did too. Basically, when Mouse had started to doubt his v read on you he came to me (and Scorp) in PMs to discuss his read further and he told me that he had concerns about your thug claim to him from D1. Specifically, he wasn’t sure if he believed the claim and was questioning if v!you would claim to him that early in the game, if e!you would claim to him for strategic reasons etc. So we went over the possibilities of the claim being real vs fake in both v!you and e!you scenarios and never really came to a conclusion other than “let’s just wait and see”. Naturally when I saw you claiming Mistborn my mind immediately went to the “fake thug claim” world, then jumped to the “fake-but-maybe-real thug claim from e!Cham” world, before moving on to the “fake thug claim from v!Cham” world once you mentioned the Seeker, then back to “fake thug claim from e!Cham” world once you hesitated on outing the details about the Seeker’s previous targets plus your own actions, then finally to the “real thug claim from ??!Cham” when I connected the dots to the unexplained gambit Mouse had mentioned after Scorp clarified it in PMs, which was essentially the same time as you clarifying it in-thread. You can see why I needed to go outside for a walk while trying to navigate through this. 39 minutes ago, Coral Swan said: They both village read Vulture and push to execute either Chameleon or the Seeker. If Cham is village, then a Spiked Beagle knows that these are both village exes. And if Cham is village, they are likely honest about being a Thug, so this just wastes an execution. But if Cham is Spiked then this On the flip side, the only reason we think Cham is a Thug is because they claimed it. The fact that the claim also happened in PMs D1 doesn't really add credibility, since a Spiked can easily pick a role to fake having and then just be consistent with that fake-claim. Since Cham derailed much of the discussion during D3, I'm inclined to think one of Cham/Beagle is a Spiked, and that they aren't on a team. Gonna vote Beagle for now. Later in D3 they double-down on not wanting to vote Vulture, and they fit into my guess about a Spiked voting early on Hyena during D2 as well. I think you forgot to finish the thought in bolded. Your vote is fine, though I don’t entirely follow your line of thought in regards to voting early on Hyena = elim. In my experience, elims generally tend to hold their votes. This is because they ideally want to survey the exe landscape and gauge who is up for the exe, whether there is a teammate on the line. Then, they decide how to play their vote. This doesn’t mean elims can’t vote early, they definitely can, but if you’re going to generalize it, I would say elims often vote later into the turn in order to place a better informed vote. Do you disagree? What are your thoughts on Albatross? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said: - a rioter - two thugs (8 lives total) - A seeker I'm not sure where you get 8 lives from, but this doesn't seem to odd to me. You might know better than me how to expect the roles to be distributed. I'm also not sure where I assume that there would be 2 Thugs. 41 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said: Again, I think there are easier ways to derail discussion than a Gambit double reversal + also why would I vote on vulture + also I could've condemned heron earlier+when everyone discovere penguin is elim why would I bus penguin that hard+also apparently tilting is village+also this is not my e!meta since people are bringing this up for penguin too+why would I derail discussion when heron was up for exe+why would i sus both tuatara and amber vulture and bus penguin + more If you look at who I voted on, it was Beagle, not you. I'll also note that I have literally no idea who anyone is. So please refrain from trying to use that as a way to convince me of something. You could just as easily be lying/faking that sort of thing, so far as I would know. Edited January 12 by Coral Swan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quartz Zebra Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Pearl Chameleon said: Chartreuse Penguin Pearl Chameleon m8! This isn't a situation of dead thread where no one is posting. Maybe people aren't seriously examining your arguments, and that sucks. But it's possible that you're not going to get a resolution about Penguin until five IRL days from now. Or even eight. We can afford two mixes before hitting an elim without costing us the game, my CS shots included. You're allowed to self vote in protest. But if your impatience means you're willing to make other people uncomfortable, you need to take a walk. Or talk to the IM about where the line is, because it's hard to check people under fog of war. This isn't a personal attack on you or your ideas, I'm just trying to keep this game civil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Ok wait why is ruin trying to keep this game civil im concerned...../s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saffron Iguana Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Other thought-- if v!Penguin, I also think v!Swan because I don't think e!Swan posts Penguin sus and doesn't vote Penguin given the current vote state if Swan is elim and Penguin is village. With e!Penguin, e!Swan is more possible but idk why they don't vote Iguana here. mmm good point. unless the team is exactly ostritch/swan/penguin for tinfoil reasons (not explaining) Actually- should we be looking for 3 red names here or 2? ugh hold on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 There might be 3 if Chameleon is a villager but I’m unsure about distro implications in general. It’s best to operate on the assumption that there are 3 just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 I personally assume 2 given we had an e!Thug flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Edit: I think Albatross is a good vote for today for reasons I’ve outlined in earlier turns; most of them still hold. The only argument that could be made here is why Alb idled their vote when Vulture was getting run up on D3 during EoD. My initial thought was that the elims were relying on their vote manip but if the Soothe came from Lion then this isn’t really case because I still lean village on Lion. It’s possible w!Alb was expecting Tuatara to riot a vote to save Vulture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saffron Iguana Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 @Coral Swan can you give me a like. topdown view of your worldview? ur towns and elim suspects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sage Kangaroo Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 46 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said: why is ele an elim to you? Poked Vulture D1, their retraction words felt weird, something along the lines of "Glad you're here now-" Also just realizing, Vulture PMed me and asked what I thought of Iguana. Not sure what to make of it, just dumping the info here. An additional information, I have not been ID/meta solving this game at all. In fact, I don't think I know anyone's identity other than Mouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saffron Iguana Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Just now, Sage Kangaroo said: Poked Vulture D1, their retraction words felt weird, something along the lines of "Glad you're here now-" Also just realizing, Vulture PMed me and asked what I thought of Iguana. Not sure what to make of it, just dumping the info here. An additional information, I have not been ID/meta solving this game at all. In fact, I don't think I know anyone's identity other than Mouse. ah, could you link to me? Also, generally, do you find games are easily solvable via spew? When did vulture pm you? i unfortunately have been informed all too many identities and assume that everybody knows my own. meow. can you explain how you have a solid tr on scorpion atm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Hi, I’m here now. The reason I was not defending myself is because I was asleep Will get to that in a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Coral Swan said: they fit into my guess about a Spiked voting early on Hyena during D2 as well Hold on…I wasn’t even voting Hyena until about 10 minutes to rollover. I had been on the Meerkat train prior to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 A lot of the D1 stuff from Albatross felt wishy-washy to me. Even this: Quote Looking at that, I feel like it's more likely than not that if Flamingo is Spiked, it's only if they're spiked with Hyena or maybe Dragonfly, with their Penguin vote trying to shake things up to give their Spiked buddy a better shot at surviving the execution. But idk, I'm not sure I'm feeling that, and so otherwise Flamingo's Penguin vote makes me feel more villagery on them. I guess then I'd want to know what the deal with Iguana and Ostrich's votes were. Iguana's move kills Penguin without actually taking part in killing them. And then Ostrich seems like they're in a hurry, yet also have paid enough attention to know that Hyena, Flamingo, and Dragonfly are possible trains to jump join to give a chance at saving Penguin, though Swan isn't mentioned I suppose, nor Iguana. So from that I'd be wondering about an Ostrich / Penguin E/E, not that risking outing two elims is necessarily that much better than getting an elim executed D1. Otherwise Iguana is Spiked in a world where Penguin, and probably Hyena, and maybe Flamingo are village, and they felt indifferent about the results. doesn't really seem to say a lot. Of course, I have been pretty slow to engage with the game as well, but I more get the feeling that Alb is reading a lot, knows that they need to say something, and is just unwilling to commit. That trend kinda continues for the rest of the game. I think Alb might be Spiked, after briefly rereading everything. 2 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Hold on…I wasn’t even voting Hyena until about 10 minutes to rollover. I had been on the Meerkat train prior to that. Sorry, you implied you'd be happy to join a vote on them right near the start of the cycle, even though you didn't vote. 10 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said: @Coral Swan can you give me a like. topdown view of your worldview? ur towns and elim suspects? I think one of Cham/Beagle is Spiked, and one or both of Penguin/Alb are Spiked. I think you (Iguana), Zebra, Heron, Meerkat, and Ostrich are village. And Lion, though I can't quite remember why. Which means that I don't have thoughts on Kanga and Scorpion, of the other people that have posted this page. Would probably execute Scorpion over Kanga if I had to make a call this instant, for the Hyena vote. But they probably have more relevant stuff that I haven't really read yet. Anyone else is a blank spot in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Coral Swan said: And Lion, though I can't quite remember why. Why doesn't matter as long as you just keep thinking it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 38 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: questioning Alb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 @Coral Swan can I ask why you role-claimed in your first post of the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 Albatross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 12 Report Share Posted January 12 5 hours ago, Opal Lion said: I think saying you understand this push is strange since his reasonings for voting me are uh, not true. What parts aren't true? Quote Also for everyone talking about potential vote manip on D1 wrt Penguin- Penguin wasn't a wagon that was in contention for the entire day. They only showed up as an option about 30 minutes before EoD. 30 Minutes doesn't give people a lot of time to submit manip actions if they aren't on already. Is there someone who rioted a vote onto penguin on D1? because people are acting like they know multiple manip actions happened. As someone who doesn't know any roles, has no claims, did not PM people, it's very annoying to read posts where people say things as if they should be common knowledge while specifically not explaining anything about it. I think it's only Pearl that was suggesting that for some reason, because yeah, the D1 vote wasn't at all relevant to Penguin. 42 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Edit: I think Albatross is a good vote for today for reasons I’ve outlined in earlier turns; most of them still hold. The only argument that could be made here is why Alb idled their vote when Vulture was getting run up on D3 during EoD. My initial thought was that the elims were relying on their vote manip but if the Soothe came from Lion then this isn’t really case because I still lean village on Lion. It’s possible w!Alb was expecting Tuatara to riot a vote to save Vulture. FWIW, part of the hesitance to commit to a vote was a matter of self preservation - I was sitting just behind Heron and Vulture at 3 votes, and voting Vulture might have prompted Vulture to shift their vote to me, and then anything could have happened in the chaos of the end of cycle. 24 minutes ago, Coral Swan said: A lot of the D1 stuff from Albatross felt wishy-washy to me. Even this: doesn't really seem to say a lot. Of course, I have been pretty slow to engage with the game as well, but I more get the feeling that Alb is reading a lot, knows that they need to say something, and is just unwilling to commit. That trend kinda continues for the rest of the game. I think Alb might be Spiked, after briefly rereading everything. I agree. Well, I've had those sorts of post be useful in the past, but this one didn't end up being. Unfortunately it's hard to know until you've spent the time doing if anything useful is going to come of it. And once you've spent all the time working on it, there's not a lot of point to not posting even when it turns out not to be useful. I was struggling to get past seeing most of the D1 content seeming reasonable, which is why I asked for direction, ending up with this post. Not that it really helps you in thread, but in one of the group PMs, I did commit to a defence of Hyena when everyone else was sussing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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