Hoid's Master Plan in Era 1?

[chickeness]

Hoid is no stranger to overarching plans- his presence on Roshar is for one, a single, Stormlight-related plot goal. He is confirmed to possess a plan, when in Secret History, Hoid says to Kelsier: 

Quote

"But you are not supposed to be here. You did what I needed you to, but you're a wild card I'd rather not deal with right now."

Neither Leras or Khriss give hints away, other than that Khriss considers her task futile when she hears he took the second to last Lerasium bead- but Hoid's search of adding new magic systems to his portfolio always seems secondary. Other than the theft of the lerasium, we know three things Hoid was doing during era 1.

The first is that Hoid was a successful informant in Luthadel during TFE, one known to both the nobility and rebellion, who dealt with both, and was successful enough he was smoking tobacco, a high-in-demand luxury item on Scadrial. The only thing that seems notable here is that Hoid either doesn't know about House Renoux being a front of the rebellion, or he's trying to dissuade Kelsier in the guise of a nobleman from peering too closely into Renoux. 

The second, during WoA, is that he is primarily in Terris, not trying to get Feruchemy, but investigating it, because he has a power that is similar to Feruchemy, and he is attempting to secure guidance from the Synod and the Keepers. With the Razing of Tathingdwen, he ends up wrapped up in the event, and becomes the leader of a group of Terris refugees, securing their safety.

The third, during HoA, is that he is doing the successful informant thing again, in Fadrex City- successful enough that the King of the Dominance, Ashweather Cett, encouraged Vin to seek him out for information, but the two never meet, as Kelsier guides her away from Hoid, and Ruin is unaware of his presence in Fadrex.

Now, what was this plan? The biggest thing Kelsier did was overthrow the Final Empire, and pave the way for the death of the Lord Ruler- so Hoid was planning for him to die- but for what reason? I've seen speculation that the plan was to grab the lerasium and run, but if this was true,  then Hoid would get the hell off of Scadrial, as opposed to sticking around after the Well of Ascension is emptied and there are no viable ways of getting off world. Hoid knew Scadrial would survive, and stayed on the world until the Catacendre. Leras states that he and Hoid were not in contact in the past few years, so Hoid possibly doesn't know Preservation's plan, but he has been on Scadrial before- the Terris Worldbringers was either founded by Hoid or someone influenced by Hoid. It's possible his plan was Preservation's plan, and he was aiding him secretly- and that seems the closest, but Kelsier was integral to the success of Preservation's plan, so why was he ignored by Hoid?

Pre-Roshar, being a subtle actor is what Hoid's best at, and I have no doubt he used this to nudge rumors and people towards certain actions, and this made up a majority of his subtle influence on his world, but I am clueless about his ultimate plan- other than it does not involve the destruction of Scadrial.

[cometaryorbit]

Sometimes Hoid through some kind of Fortune use knows where he needs to be but not why.

14 hours ago, chickeness said:

It's possible his plan was Preservation's plan, and he was aiding him secretly- and that seems the closest, but Kelsier was integral to the success of Preservation's plan, so why was he ignored by Hoid?

I think Hoid didn't know Preservation's full plan, and so didn't know Kelsier still had a role after setting up the conditions for TLRs death. Or maybe "you did what I needed you to" refers to training Vin or introducing Sazed to the crew; Hoid may have had a Fortune feeling that they had a greater destiny than killing the Lord Ruler.

I wonder if Hoid would have made things easier if Kelsier had let Vin talk to him? Giving her a hint about her earring / the Mists perhaps?

 

EDIT: I don't know that Hoid had a specific detailed plan on Scadrial, like he does on Roshar- Hoid apparently has specific history with Rayse. It might have been more a Fortune feeling that he needed to be on Scadrial, important stuff was happening...

Edited July 20, 2022 by cometaryorbit

[Little_Dagger she/her]

Well, perhaps, Hoid predicted the appearance and the future threat of Trell (even though we know little of him so far), and wanted to make sure that Shards on Scadrial would be able to oppose him? I doubt Ati would have tried to save the planet in case of an attack and Leras was dying by the time. If Trell turns out to be a Cosmere-wide problem, it would make sense for Hoid to make sure that various systems are stable, ready to defend themselves, and - importantly - their Shards are willing to listen to him when he reaches out to them in SA.

In this case, Hoid may not have cared much about TLR at all. He might have referred to Kelsier temporarily taking up the Preservation's power and then giving it up to Vin who was a better vessel ("doing what he needed him to" to arrive at Sazed as a more reliable vessel for the Shard). 

[chickeness]

On 7/26/2022 at 6:46 AM, Yuliya said:

In this case, Hoid may not have cared much about TLR at all. He might have referred to Kelsier temporarily taking up the Preservation's power and then giving it up to Vin who was a better vessel ("doing what he needed him to" to arrive at Sazed as a more reliable vessel for the Shard). 

This came when Kelsier was in the Well of Ascension, and I'm fairly certain, based on both Preservation's and Hoid's reactions, that Kelsier wasn't a part of the plan beyond his death- him not going Beyond led to their plans succeeding, yes, but that wasn't intended. Preservation's plan was that Vin take up the power in the Well(at least the plan of the remnant), which could mean Hoid's plan by the time Vin was at the Well had moved to Kelsier taking up the power- but I don't see how he could have known a ruin-influenced cognitive shadow could've taken up the power of Preservation, only after the Well was emptied.

[cometaryorbit]

7 minutes ago, chickeness said:

This came when Kelsier was in the Well of Ascension, and I'm fairly certain, based on both Preservation's and Hoid's reactions, that Kelsier wasn't a part of the plan beyond his death

Yeah, Hoid says Kelsier "did what I needed you to", past tense. So it has to be something he did before that point - inspiring the skaa rebellion, training Vin, introducing various members of the crew, etc.

[chickeness]

It just came to me that Hoid and Preservation's plans had to be different, because Preservation intended for Vin to take up the power in the well of ascension, while Hoid didn't try to contact her beforehand or even in the Well to tell her to take up the power.

[Little_Dagger she/her]

15 hours ago, chickeness said:

This came when Kelsier was in the Well of , and I'm fairly certain, based on both 's and Hoid's reactions, that Kelsier wasn't a part of beyond his death- him not going Beyond led to their plans succeeding, yes, but that wasn't intended. Preservation's plan was that Vin take up the power in the Well(at least of the remnant), which could mean Hoid's plan by the time Vin was at the Well had moved to Kelsier taking up the power- but I don't see how he could have known a ruin-influenced cognitive shadow could've taken up the power of Preservation, only after the Well was emptied.

Good point, thanks for the clarification

[Duxredux he/him]

Here's a thought. Maybe Hoid like everyone else was looking for the TLR's fabled Atium stash? Either to be a Mistborn with access to huge amounts of Atium, or just to have Atium as another Godmetal to add to his collection. I have to assume that Hoid is wily enough to get his hands on at least one bead of Atium, considering he probably used to use the Pits of Hathsin to get to Scadrial in previous times, but maybe he would be tempted by so much Godmetal. I could see his presence in Fadrex as an attempt to lift the treasure before Vin and friends could get there (funnily enough, if Hoid had managed to actually steal the Trust and get off world with it, that probably would have worked for Preservation's plan).

I think it's also possible that he didn't intend to get stranded on Scadrial, and had meant to get off before yet another Perpendicularity was destroyed by Kelsier's crew. Maybe he also didn't want to give Kelsier any more information, as Kelsier had more or less become a guard of the Well. By HoA, it could be like "welp, I'm stuck here and Ati's loose. Maybe I should mess him up before he blows up the planet with me on it, and moves on to cause problems on other planets that have stuff I want.

Some perhaps boring or mundane reasons, but Hoid has made mistakes in the past.

Edited August 7, 2022 by Duxredux
Added another thought