Timeframe for Desolations

[DocHoliday]

Hi there! I searched and couldn't find a topic relating to this, but if I'm reposting I apologize in advance.

 

Wit's comments during Taln's reappearance have been bugging me for some time. Taln says "The Desolation has come. It has come, oh God and I have failed." Wit replies ends with" you my friend may have come to late."

 

My understanding is that the Heralds coming marks the beginning of a Desolation. Why then would he be considered late by Cosmere-smart Hoid? My gut feeling says it has to do with the abandonment of Taln.

 

My real question for everyone is how often do Desolations occur? I can't remember where, but I recall reading that they come at regular intervals but are always unexpected. I take that to mean every 50 years (or 100, number is irrelevant) one can occur but not will occur.

 

Ahharetium(sp?) Happened 4500 years ago, and it was #99. Are we to believe this cycloe has been happening for 450 thousand years? 

 

The primary difference between Desolation #100 + #99 is the Heralds abandonment. I don't include the KR as I consider them more of an elite fighting force. The Heralds go somewhere  between Desolations and elected not to. Die to our ignorance of the Oathpact I am forced to hypothesize that in place of a "relay" with 10 Heralds, Taln pulled an iron man style "marathon" which took  much longer than it was supposed to. Possibly giving Odium the needed to prepare a final assault.

Thoughts? Tangents?

[Claincy]

Pretty sure we never got a confirmation about the time between desolations. However I think anything below 100 years would be too short, might need to be longer in fact. We get a couple of hints from the book, first that they came regularly as you stated.

 

From tWoK (Dalinar's visions):

"'They say that each time is the same,' the man said. "We are never ready for the desolations. We should be getting better at resisting, but each time we step closer to destruction instead.'"

 

This suggests that the desolations were always far enough apart that humans, while not having forgotten about the desolations, had lost a bit of focus on them. People who had survive through one were not likely to forget so at least 100 years seems reasonable.

 

A more telling quote:

"'I ask myself the same thing. How could we let this occur? The Desolations are well named. I've heard initial counts. Eleven years of war, and nine out of ten people I once ruled are dead. Do we even have kingdoms to lead any longer? Sur is gone, I'm sure of it. Tarma, Eiliz, they won't likely survive. Too many of their people have fallen.'"

 

This gives us a pretty good idea of the scope of the destruction caused by the desolations. 9 out of 10 people dead, and that was in Alethela. While that may have been the worst of the desolations that had occurred the others would not be much better. With ~90% of the population of the entire continent dead it would take hundreds of years to repopulate to the same level.

 

One more:

"'You cannot squabble as in times past. He's realized that you, given time, will become your own enemies. That he doesn't need to fight you. Not if he can make you forget, make you turn against one another.'"

 

So what I draw from that is that Odium could have caused another desolation much much sooner but had realized that, given long enough, humans would forget the true horror of the desolations and turn on eachother again. With the heralds abandoning the oathpact and telling the people they won this time would just make it easier for Odium with people assuming they didn't need to worry about the desolations anymore.

 

Pure speculation here. But I think that something that Odium does in the build up to a desolation, some vital step that he cannot skip, releases the Heralds. So he takes this step near the end of tWoK. So why is Taln late? II think it's simply referring to how lon git has been since the heralds were released and how much the kingdoms have forgotten, how unprepared they are compared to when the desolation would normally have come if it had followed the same pattern. Another possibilty is simply that it was harder for 1 Herald to get out than 10, so took longer for him to escape/be released?

 

(apologies for nonideal quote delimiting, uncertain how to box them here)

Edited July 2, 2013 by lord_Ffnord

[DocHoliday]

Apology accepted as itis a failing of my own

 

I wasn't particularly concerned with the length of aDesolation so much as the interval between them. We have "Nohadon" granting us the morsel of eleven years of war. The Honor quote is much more telling, referring to a plan of action on Odium's part. But I'm not ready to get behind it entirely as it is in-world information and BS is notorious for f@¢#ing with us like that.

 

It just seems to me, that you wouldn't try something 99x without trying a different tactic. We have yet to encounter a Shard holder who wasnt reasonably intelligent. Not even a fly runs into the glass 99x without trying something else after all..

 

I think you're own speculation is similar to mine however i.e. 10 man relay vs. Marathon. Ten guys Sprint faster than 1 guy jogging the whole way. I just can't imagine HOW this interacts with the Heralds/Odium. I mean what is better? A short interval interval between Desolation or a long one? In Nohadons time 9/10 people killed, in Dalinar time, no-one is ready ready for the fight, 9.5/10 dead?

 

Really, what is the win situation for these people?

[Claincy]

But I'm not ready to get behind it entirely as it is in-world information and BS is notorious for f@¢#ing with us like that.

heh, very true.

 

Hmm, I would guess that there were some changes between desolations, and from that quote before if Nohadon in that vision is to be believed Odium was closer to winning each time. However, we come to this nebulous thing about "rules" which we know nothing about. Was there a limit of 100 desolations? probably not. But, how much direct impact can Odium actually do? Obviously something, but maybe not very much, cultivation is presumably still around and blocking him from major works. He may only be able to make minor changes, but does get to decide when to launch the desolation.

 

Maybe the Heralds still have to fight there way out, but the opportunity to do so only comes when a desolation is about to come. So 1 person fighting their way out would likely have more difficulty/take longer.

 

A win situation for these people? Well, if enough of them survive this last one to rebuild at all, they win

For that to happen I strongly suspect that Odium (well, whoever holds the shard) will have to die for that to happen.

Edited July 3, 2013 by lord_Ffnord

[DocHoliday]

Presumably Cultivation is doing something to hinder Odium, Rayse is the holder BTW, I agree.

Now here's the thing though, according to Nohadon, he's(Odium) getting better with every Desolation, doing more damage and killing more people. Why the change of tactics? Either it's working or its not. And if it IS, Honor is dead, why stop attacking a weakened foe? Odium would more likely increase the frequency of Desolations.

 

but the real bitch of Roshar's situation is that I don't see a level playing field like Scadrial's with equal and opposing forces. I don't think there IS a win situation, but a survive situation. Or at least a hold out until help arrives. I'm reminded of Dalinars last vision, and Honor saying it's not just about us you see#points to stars going dark# it's about them as well. I think Tanavast is/was just trying to keep Odium from moving on, a kind of rear-guard action if you will.

 

I read a BS quote somewhere that Odium (has more Investiture in Roshar than he may have wanted),  that his magic permeates the planet and leaving Roshar would be very difficult for him now. (Parentheses are my take). This would support the Rear guard theory.

[hoser]

Supposedly there are two 5 book series.  I guess that the first five book series will be surviving the desolation, fighting Odium to a standstill.  The second could then be reaching a more satisfactory solution.  Brandon is anything but predictable, so he could have Odium win in the first series and have a desperate struggle in a world dominated completely by Odium.  I prefer the first solution, as the world is already pretty bleak and he sort of did the second already in another series.  With Honor splintered, the odds are already against Team Radiant. 

 

I remember there being a quote to the effect of Odium having invested too heavily in Roshar to leave.  I assume that investment is in living creatures.  Presumably that is in providing corrupting influences in people, perhaps including the Thrill. If the Final Desolation destroys all life on Roshar, his investment may return to him and he can travel round and destroy more Shards.  

[DocHoliday]

I also read, Distracted, that the Everstorm, the land being destroyed, might be a means of remclaining that Investiture.However it is a theory proposed by our fellow. I would not guarantee that Odium can continue on at this point. Consider Preservation. If an Allowmancer contains more of Preservation's power, then Preservation would grow  stronger with the death of each Allowmancer,the Investiture returning. I don't observe this happening, though it may be at odds with Shardic intent causing a different effect.

 

I also wish to inquire about you're knowledge of a 2 series of books, and you're belief that the world has been dominated by evil in another series. not that I doubt you, I merely wish to fill in the gaps of my own knowledge.

[hoser]

I also read, Distracted, that the Everstorm, the land being destroyed, might be a means of remclaining that Investiture.However it is a theory proposed by our fellow. I would not guarantee that Odium can continue on at this point. Consider Preservation. If an Allowmancer contains more of Preservation's power, then Preservation would grow  stronger with the death of each Allowmancer,the Investiture returning. I don't observe this happening, though it may be at odds with Shardic intent causing a different effect.

 

I also wish to inquire about you're knowledge of a 2 series of books, and you're belief that the world has been dominated by evil in another series. not that I doubt you, I merely wish to fill in the gaps of my own knowledge.

Mistborn spoiler:

I apologize for being unclear.  The world I considered dominated by evil was Mistborn, which you are obviously familiar with. 

I don't know how Preservation's power exactly waned and waxed.  There was the investment in allomancers, sure, but I think there was another investment that everybody had from both Preservation and Ruin.  It was this base investment that would seem to depend on how many people there are that I imagined tied the Shards to a planet. And when I say people, I mean creatures really. 

 

The history, as I understand it, has Honor and Cultivation chilling here, then Odium hangs out for a while, then he goes somewhere else and mashes up some Shards.  Then Odium is back and all, like, committed.  So what happened?  My guess is that Odium put some of his magic in the creatures of Roshar after he came back and leaving would be kind of tearing himself apart.  So maybe if he wipes the place clean, he can get that part back and be on his way.  A side benefit might be that without people, it might be harder for Honor to get put back together. 

But that is just my theory about the Final Desolation, I have no evidence to support it. 

 

As for the two series, I believe it's from Brandon.  There are some quotes below from the interview database.

 

Here's one quote:

Interview: May 18th, 2009

AMC Filmcritic.com - Novelist Brandon Sanderson Discusses the End of the Wheel of Time (Verbatim)Clayton Neuman

What do you have planned after you finish Wheel of Time?

Brandon Sanderson

My next series will be The Way of Kings, which is the start of a big epic for me. I've plotted it as ten books. Fantasy writers, we get into this business because we love the big epics. We grow up reading Brooks and Jordan, and we get to the point where we say, "I want to do this myself."

 

Another:

Interview: Jul, 2009

BarnesandNoble.com Book Club Q&A with Brandon Sanderson

morph147

Next, I've been hearing about The Way of Kings series you are starting. Are you planning to have that as a single book or going to try and make it a trilogy like Mistborn or a large ten or more book series?

Brandon Sanderson

It's going to be a big series. No promises on length right now, but I feel that it is going to be long. I have 10 books plotted right now, though some of those might get combined—essentially, there are 10 plot arcs I want to cover. But expect it to be big. The first book is done, and came in at 380,000 words before editing.

and these two refer to two 5 book series: Interview: Nov 12th, 2011

Alloy of Law Signing Report - zx15 (Paraphrased)

zxg15

Asked him for more info on what he meant when he said that Stormlight will be organized as two 5-book series within the total 10 books.

Brandon Sanderson

Understandably he didn't want to give much away, he wouldn't say if there would be a time skip or not. He did tell me that there would be a large change in tone between books 1-5 and 6-10. Also, he said that since book 2 is now going to be Shallan's, he wants Dalinar's book to be number 5. He then talked about how the 5 characters that were introduced in depth in Way of Kings would be the the 5 flashback characters for the first 5 books and the others would be more focused on in the final 5 books.

Interview: Nov 10th, 2011

Alloy of Law Signing Report - Green Hoodie Mistborn (Verbatim)

Question

What’s the status of the second book of the Stormlight Archive?

Brandon Sanderson

I will be going right into that as soon as I finish A Memory of Light. I have it outlined, I have decided whose book it will be, each of the Stormlight books will have a focal character who gets flashbacks. It’s going to be Shallan’s book. So the first major cycle of the Stormlight Archive is looking like it’s going to be Kaladin, Shallan, Szeth, Navani, and Dalinar as the five book arc. And if you haven’t heard, I’m doing it in two 5-book arcs, so the first 5 books should wrap a lot of things up and whatnot. And I might even stop then and do like an Elantris sequel and things like that, and then start the second 5-book arc. So I will do that immediately, I’m actually planning to do that and have it out, it probably won’t be next year, it’ll probably be the following spring, but it’s a little over a year away. I’ve got it all outlined, so it should be...I’ve done a lot of work on it, I just haven’t written it.

 

[The Count]

It just seems to me, that you wouldn't try something 99x without trying a different tactic. We have yet to encounter a Shard holder who wasnt reasonably intelligent. Not even a fly runs into the glass 99x without trying something else after all..

 

I think this is an interesting point.

 

Putting my speculating hat of for a few minutes....

 

Suppose Odium realised quite quickly (say after 20 or so Desolations) that he wanted to wait longer to allow mankind to implode but couldn't because of the Oathpact?

 

Then I would guess that it was the Heralds descision to leave that allowed Odium the flexibility within the Oathpact to have the extra time.

 

I suppose you could even guess that: 4500 years for 1 herald trapped / tortured or 450 years for 10 heralds trapped / tortured. 

[blari345]

Ahharetium(sp?) Happened 4500 years ago, and it was #99. Are we to believe this cycloe has been happening for 450 thousand years? 

 

The primary difference between Desolation #100 + #99 is the Heralds abandonment. I don't include the KR as I consider them more of an elite fighting force. The Heralds go somewhere  between Desolations and elected not to. Die to our ignorance of the Oathpact I am forced to hypothesize that in place of a "relay" with 10 Heralds, Taln pulled an iron man style "marathon" which took  much longer than it was supposed to. Possibly giving Odium the needed to prepare a final assault.

Thoughts? Tangents?

 

I don't think that it has been confirrmed just how many desolations there have been. If I remember correctly the the 99-100 figure come form rather recent religous texts and seems rather of poetic to be true. There could have only really been 20-30 and they could still cover a period of 3000 to 4000 years.

 

I think we may get a more trustworthy figure when a Herald POV chapter.

[DocHoliday]

I'll have to check the reference later tonight. It's either Kalak, or Dalinars visions mentioning #99. Maybe even Jasnah...I got a lot of looking to do. To the E reader!

 

@Mad-rand. This is along the same lines I was thinking. Kalak mentions that" the enemy will not remain bound by this. He will find a way around this(Herald abandonment)." Our logic makes sense, except that Odium is some how bound by the Heralds in Damnation...our perhaps the Oathpact?

[Crysanja]

brandon sanderson is criticicing alot about the missing improvement of technology in fantasy.

so i think we should assume here, that there was quite some improvements in technology between the desolations.

 

so the ppl have better weapons to withstand each following desolation, but thouse desolations are getting worse.

which means the desolation-forces getting much stronger, and/or thouse monsters/forces can use the "newly" developed technology too.

 

another option would be that the over all population is declining over all thouse desolations.

[DocHoliday]

Reread Kalak's POV, the reference isn't there. 

What I did see Crysanja is reference to technology of the time. Bronze spears and ragged hides and leather for foot soldiers.

 

What ever is causing the increase in destruction is unrelated to technology IMO.

 

Nohadon mentions some kind of war/rebellion directly before his Desolation. 

Roshar is currently more divided than ever before. The Final Desolation has come.

 

THEORY: Divisiveness increases the potency of a Desolation.

[DocHoliday]

I doubt it's the only reference, but I did find 1 reference to 99 Desolations. It was Kabsal when Shallon was fishing for info on fabriels.

[Leuthie]

You're all assuming Odiums goal is to kill off the people. What if his goal is killing off and Splintering the Shards which requires there be people left. Odium, then, wouldn't want to kill everyone.

I've always had it in the back of my mind that Cultivation doesn't much want people around. Honor did but he's gone. Cultivation, maybe wants people around now for the same reason as Odium: the fight with Odium requires them.

[DocHoliday]

It's not that his goal is to kill off people, IMO. killing people is a means to an end. I think WoB is that Odium wants to shatter all the Shards and be the only/greatest power in the Cosmere.  

 

Elantris

People are alive but Aona and Skai are dead.

 

But why would people need to be around for Splintering?

Edited July 9, 2013 by Windrunner
Added a spoiler tag for you :)

[Vortaan]

I wouldn't take Kasbal's quote as literal. They mention a few times that the Desolations happen before recorded history and the only complete work is the Way of Kings. A hundred Desolations just sounds better, religiously speaking.

I'd also like to point out that 90% casualties are sure to send most societies back a bit. Bronze weapons and furs may be all that's left after 11 years of thAt kind of war.

On topic, we assume that the Desolations are controlled from Odium's side. Perhaps the reason Taln is late is because they are started from Honor's side and Tanavast is dead. Maybe that is Odium's plan: allow Tanavast to start a Desolation, then kill him. This seems like it would be the best possible outcome for Odium