Wahrheitswächter
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Everything posted by Wahrheitswächter
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No it does not, according to the Sign Ups the Elim Win Con is Outnumbering the Village not parity with the Village -
@Araris Valerian I was asking because Acording to Stick they had GM confirmation, that the Result of Archers Discerning Action was shared with his team. It is of course possible that Stick had misunderstood the GMs there
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Well, thats not good, seems like I was wrong, and from the looks of it that will probably mean that I am going to die. From the few of us that are still alive I am going to vote Penguin as I do not trust him. If every Village Role really exists twice, there can only be one other Vanilla and I am by far more inclined to beliefe Qian over Penguin. Question for @TwinStorm and @Hoid Slayer: If TOW did not forget to submit his sneaky action, will the villagers be informed about his results? As far as I am aware the Regals were Informed about at least Archers Discerning Results.
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Maybe you actually forgott, but there is still an unacounted Dire Form still running around, you were probably converted C1 and lost your original Role and instead became a Direform, that way you needed an excuse for nor putting in your sneaky actions and you claimed to have forgotten to do that. But 3 Cycles in a Row, that seems unlikely to me, even if you forgott there was no night day distinction, why wouldnt you put in an Action C2? You would either assume night, since New topic, or you would noticed that two topics in a row voted and noticed Oh no D/N distinction, lets put in a sneaky action, the only reason to do neither is to be unable to do it because you were a direform
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We got the Shardbearer, that is Good, I will Vote TOW since Sticks Analysis has proven to be right two Times So I think its a good Idea to follow it. Following that logic I understand why some of you are voting me, In my defense I want to say, I did my best to help the village out. Also I want to point out that one of Sticks Arguments for suspecting me was a missing Stormform, which Was revealed to be Jo, we unfortunately do not know (as far as I am aware) what Jo claimed TOWs Role Was to Stick, only that he is village. Also TOW came with his sneaky claim Kinda out of nowhere (at least it felt that way to me) and Docs Observation of that turning the attenntion away from him is interesting, I think TOW knew how accurate Sticks Analysis was and when we exed Jo he feared that he could be the next, bussing TUM in hopes of gaining our trust.
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Marne was suspicious, the Town had Grown quiet, After they found the Corpse of Stick even more so, he had liked Stick for the most Part and she seemed to be right. He didnt trust the Peace they did not know who had used the Shardblade to execute o a few days Ago, and his Gut told him that there was at least one Regal still hiding among them. The town had mostly agreed that on of those without a Name was Guilty, he thought they were right, he didnt trust that on either and had voted for them on multiple occasions including today, but now he would go to bed, it had gotten late and Marne needed the sleep, he was curious what the morning would bring. As he got to bed he thought that he had heared the voice of one the dead Regals, he must be growing Mad, the hapenings in Revolar were very Bad for his Sanity, Ghosts werent Real, they couldnt be.
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I see a bit of a problem with placing all Sandmasters in the same class, because there are those with like 3 ribbons, and then there are those with like 25. Yeah Kenton won with a very limited amount of ribbons but thats the exception, I would say comparing an Underfen with 1 Ribbon and a Mastrel with 15+ Ribbons is the similar as Comparing 4th Ideal KR to 2th Ideal KR
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I dont think so, the two Regal kills of day 1 were probably the Original two Regals, and we assumed Conversions in C1 and C3, two regals and two conversions seem like a good amount for 16 players. Especially since there is the Shardbearer running around. But even though I think the Regals are down to their last Player with no Conversions left, we cannot be carefull enough, Nasty suprises are the last thing we need.
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We dont know if Regals or Sharbearer were the attacker, we have only the RP text of the Write Up to go by, the actuall death and attack listing doesnt distinguish. But since HoidSlayer confirmed that its possible I believe both worked together to get Rid of Stick, probably because Sticks Insight was to accurate for their liking.
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Ok good, we got a Regal, thats Good, theres only one kill, that could mean two things a) The Shardbearer isnt killing right now, either due two a continuing Dire Form Block, or because he doesnt want to b) There was a thrid Conversion, if thas the case that would be bad These are two estimateted distros based on yesterdays estimation a) Shard, Regal, 6 Singers b) Shard, 2 Regal, 5 Singers I really hope its a, because thats a way better Situation for us, I will go with TUM as well, because I still trust Sticks Analysis (except for the Part where I am suspicious) and we saw that at least the Jo Part was right. Also @TwinStorm the Write up is missing the Roles and Factions of mippo and Honors Ghost edit: Thought about a third option, will need to aks GM clarification about if thats possible: c) Stick Protected herself but was attacked by both Regals and Shardbearer, unable to protect against two attacks she died.
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So its about three hours till rollover, for me its getting really late, so I will go to bed now, my Vote Stays on Jo, because I do not trust him in the moment, I hope that this is not a mistake, I have noticed that people have gotten suspicious about me again, I hope i can convince you of my innocence next cycle until then, I hope that I we exe either Shard or Regal today, we desperatly need a win right now.
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@Stick. I think most of your Analysis Sounds quite good and logical to me, except for the Part where you assume that there are three remaining regals, (Jo, TOW, and Me) because that would mean, there where 3 initial regals with 2 conversions wich Sounds like a distro that is quite favorably for the Elims, especially with a sharbearer running around. So I would like to know what about my claim was Tonally Sus? And what @Qianweilian (and @Doc12 if he has recovered his wallet) think about that as I role swaped with them as well. Obviously I am what I claimed to be and not the Regal
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isn't sand mastery lame? what is so special about it?
Wahrheitswächter replied to samsocial's topic in White Sand
So i noticed that youre new here, Consider a Intropost here to let people know what you have and haven't read, which ever list is shorter. Also its generall forum practice to keep topics inactive if no one has posted in them for over a year. For the Forums Code of Conduct se Here -
Assuming the following distribution for living Player (Shard, 2 Regals, 7 Singers no Conversions) and no suprises through spren, survivors and Direform blocks, These are possible outcomes for next cycle based on what we kill, In conclusion, no execution would be better than executing a Singer so please, be very very Sure that you vote a Regal or Ideal the Shardbearer, I agree with Jo that getting the Shardbearer out would be the best Situation for us, however as someone else previously said, hinten the Shardbearer and thus not being on the suspekt list, could be a good way to hide the shardbearer. So my current vote stays, but if there are good arguments to convince me of Jos innocence, I will follow my own advice and not vote or vote on someone if there are good arguments for it (given that I am not already asleep)
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@Doc12 All good, thanks for letting us know, I wish you the best of luck finding your Wallet as soon as possible.
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Marne did not like what Johala had to say, yesterday they seemed so Sure that he was neither Regal nor Shardbearer, he had thought of Jojala as a friend, but maybe that was all a ploy to exploit Marnes Naivety, or the Regals had Gottes to him? He hated the thought of being tricked, but he would not go the same Route as the First day, where he reacted to the accusations with voting a Singer who hadnt talked yet, that had backfired horibly, so this time he would do the logical thing and vote the Person that had acused him Jojala @ThatOneWorldhopper Penguins Inactivity could be another Explanation for the missing Shardbearer kill, I discounted the Theory of the Shardbearer not using his kill as pretty unlikely, because why? What benefit would he gain, but hadnt acounted for Penguins growing disintered and inactivity in the game. I however hate Jos sudden Charakter Change, yesterday he claimed that he was certain I was neither Regal, nor Shardbearer, and now hes acusing me, I dont understand why, So I do think he could be converted, because how else do you explain this pretty unprompted (at least in my oppinion) change in attitude towards me,?
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What does LYLO stand for?
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It could not have been a kill block, because as seen last cycle, we are told when someone survives a kill attempt, so that cannot be the explanation. However Direform is not a protection Role, it Roleblocks its target, meaning whoever the Dire Form Targeted cannot use their ability, in this case probably the Shardbearer So the Direform targeted a Player, blocking him from using his role. In the same Cycle the Shardbearer doesnt kill anyone. Meaning the Direform Probably blocked Shardbearer, the Direform knows who they blocked so they know that whoever they blocked is probably the Shardbearer
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Ok so, we have probably at least two Elims running around, depending on starting Numbers. There was however no shardbearer kill, which can mean two things: a) Shardbearer didnt want to kill someone, I find that unlikely b) Shardbearer was Role blocked by a Direform, that does mean the Elims now propably know who the Shardbearer is
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Marne was in his hut, this day was very quiet nothinhg had happened since the explosion in the morning, he was quite sure that he trusted Khenari, he was inclined to trust Jojala but that could be ruse, based on Niennas acounts of interactions with Khenari, and his own conversation with the Artform, he trusted her at least somewhat, with so little happing there wasnt much to go on for his vote today, he had gotten wierd looks and comments from other singers for his hesitation to vote the first day, the suspicion on Dharan, althought not compeletely unbased seemed somewhat far fetched, and with basically most of the village pilimg Fernri, there werent much voting patterns to go by. So as Marne got to bed, he decided to follow his gut feeling from the previous day and kept his vote on TUM hopefully that wouldnt come back and bite him in the back, he could never know what happened in the last three to fours of the day, he hadnt anticipated the Train on Narash the first day, being sure it was Jojoja who would be executed, nor had he anticipated that Fernri would be killed the following day
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If the elims killed TJ for Voting Mippo, that could mean one of two things, either mippo is a elim, but if so, very odd choice to draw attention to him, or he is villa and drawing attention to him was the point, both are plausible so we can only guess which one it is. I see certain problems with the elims being able to do both kill and convert in one cycle, one it would be very strong and two if thats possible, where was the kill in C1? After C1, two people were dead one exed by the village one killed by the shardbearer, and we werent told that anyone survived an attack, meaning no elim kill atempt. It would be nonsensical to not kill a villa when you have the chance to, at least in my oppinion, so only a conversion. I dont think they got the abbility to do both in C2, so with 1 exe 1 kill and 1 kill attempt, I would say we can be certain that they didnt try to convert or converted anyone. Wich allows three possible conclusions: a) Akimiko lied b) you missunderstood her message, I would say it could simply mean she placed her protection on you not that it triggers. c) you lied about Amikos message Even though i do not know her exact words and cant say with certainty how plausible it is i tend towards b
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Marne was tired he had things to do in the morning so he would head to bed for now, he had voted for a singer of unknown Name earlier today, except for sticks probably joke, and Jojalas Bluff nothing very suspicious had happened today, hopefully none of them got the wrong if he didnt react anymore today, but that was the downside of sleeping during the most crucial hours of the day. Hopefully he would awake again tomorrow. yeah so its 11:30 pm for me now and i need to sleep, See you all tomorrow.
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Not necessarily, lets take a look at the Order of Actions, that HoidSlayer has provided in the Signup Post. As we can See, the Conversion happens before the Kills, Meiningen either Archer or Mist could have been a converted Regal with one Original Regal still alive. That could explain the Spren Situation with Archer, but in the end wont help much as in any case there is at least one Regal (Depending on Starting Numbers) and a Shardbearer running around, both of which is not good Wait, is this a confession to being the third Regal? Or is it just a joke?
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I did not Vote again because of time zones rollover is about 3am for me, and After rescinding my vote on Stick, I was going to bed and After the things that happened that Cycle I didnt want to cast another vote. So seeing that two of the Regals piled on Akimo, I would think that she is not a Regal, Archer who was a Regal, wanted the People to get away from Coco, so that could be an attempt at protecting a teammate, also with two of the Elims on one train, I am unsure if the other Elims were on the same train as Archer and Mistfallen, on the one Hand with two of the elims already out, it would put them in quite a predicament, but they wouldnt have know that two of them would die in C1, and I guess they could have tried to get another Singer killed. Also the two Votes on Archer could contain a Regal, trying to stay out of the trains and with the Vote counts being relatively Sure they dont harm a fellow Regal. The ones I trust the most in the moment are Akimiko (based on at least two Regals piling on her) and Jo (based on PM and him being the First to defend me) For now I will go with TUM as well, very open to changing it later Marne was reliefed, two of those meddeling Regals were Dead, one of them was o, he didnt like o for accusing him the other day, so Marne wasnt sad about that, what was worrying were his burned eyes, as far as he knew, those were a result of being killed by a shardplate, he didnt like that a shardbearer war running around and killing People, for now he got a Regal but what if there next victim was a Singer? He was concerned about a Potential third Party in this mess. He was Sure that there were Still more Regals around, so he would cast his vote on one of the Singers he didnt knew the Name of, this one just felt wrong to him, he couldnt say why, it was just his Gut feeling.
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Apparently I wont be executed, I like that very much. I was a bit anxious about Posting again After my last post had the opposite of the intendet effect, So I will retract my vote on Stick because it was clearly a very big mistake to vote in him in the First place. The generall consensus seems to be to Vote TOW, I wont do that and probably dont vote again today, because it seems like it will get me into trouble i dont want to be in. Marne was perplexd, After o had started pointing Fingers at him, and he had voiced his suspicions on Stick, everyone started to suddenly pile on him, he wasnt Sure why, but decided to keep in his Hut fearing that He would only make it worse, but apparently there were Still reasonably Singers in Revolar.
