Hoid Slayer

Alright *cracks knuckles* Time for Hoid's analyses, part two Cycle 2 edition First off: I did - most of it was riding on TS being elim, though. The only real inference I would get out of TwinStorm being villa, based purely on data from C1, would be to clear Aman for his last minute switch from TwinStorm to TUH, as an elim should have been satisfied with the exe of a villa and not wanted to shake things up So Aman = Villa Now, my real analysis: Once again, warning, this will be long Let's go over the events of last cycle: On it's first day, the cycle is very inactive. We open with some pokes: Me on Polly and Araris on Penguin. The first notable event is BBB and Penguin calling sus on the vote switches from Twin to TUH. BBB says e!Twin is his only read, and votes TwinStorm. KSauce pops in, says he agrees with everyone else's logic, and votes TwinStorm. TwinStorm rightfully pokes at BBB, asking for a deeper analysis, and BBB says he'd go after me if Twin flipped villa, which I don't quite get and would like some more explanation on @BigBadBagsworth. Thread stalls until yesterday afternoon, when I make my big analysis. I vote TwinStorm under the premise of the information his alignment would give us, and me, Araris and CD have some good back and forth. KSauce, interestingly, seemingly forgets he already voted TwinStorm and does so again. Doc pops in with a slight analysis and votes BBB cause he wants a tie, but then organically switches his vote to KSauce. Our current VC, roughly an hour before rollover: Penguin: (1) Araris TwinStorm: (3) KSauce, Me, BBB BBB: (1) Twin KSauce: (1) Doc I will admit, during these events last night, I didn't realize quite the extent of the vote disparity between BBB and TwinStorm because of the way everyone kept including the Returned in the VCs. Anyways, CD proceeds to do something interesting. He votes BBB with less than an hour left under the premise of making a tie, but then switches to TwinStorm last minute, saying he stands by his vote last cycle. Right before rollover, Araris switches his vote to KSauce expressing that he wants to give people more time. Disliking the fact no one is doing anything even when the elims clearly had their chance to save TwinStorm, I switch my vote to BBB in an attempt to change the exe. In retrospect, I should have voted KSauce, but once again, I wasn't fully aware of the true VC. Penguin, Aman, Polly, and TOW are all silent. Our final VC, counting only priest votes: TwinStorm: (3) KSauce, CD, BBB BBB: (2) Twin, Me KSauce: (2) Doc, Araris What I get from this: Using similar logic as my Aman v!read, TwinStorm was slated for death for quite a while last cycle, and the elims should've been happy with that. That makes me think that anyone who acted to disrupt that path is immediately leaning villa. Namely, Araris for extending the time period and, to a lesser extent, Doc for supporting BBB as a rival train - even if he later switched out. My reads: First off, I'm sorry TwinStorm, but the more I look at your behavior in C2 the more I see you as village leaning and the worse I feel about your exe. As for people who are still alive: BBB is my biggest elim read. C1, he made an odd first vote, accusing me of something many others had done. He then switches his vote to TwinStorm as a pile forms (which isn't incriminating in itself, though, as his reasoning is one I agree with even if it's a piggyback), and calls sus on Araris and Twin for starting trains without evidence. C2, He single-mindedly attacks TwinStorm, and when urged to interact later in the cycle, claims he doesn't have anything else to say. At one point, he makes a list of people he'd like to hear from, but that seems to me kinda like someone in his doc told him to as there's no context for it. Both cycles, pretty much all he does is sit on his vote on TwinStorm while acting weird. If BBB is elim: In a world in which BBB is elim, I see it highly possible that CD is elim with him. CD was one of the few people BBB claimed a village read on last cycle (along with Araris), and twice now CD has voted BBB only to retract his vote in a short time span. CD also, in terms of net impact, joined the VC last cycle only to push forth the TwinStorm train to victory. They also both voted me at different times early C1. While it's possible BBB and CD aren't connected, it's certainly something to consider. So CD, also elim leaning. KSauce has also been acting weird. He didn't really do anything C1 other than say he was leaning towards TwinStorm as elim, but not voting. C2 he was a little more active, at least in his attacks on TwinStorm. He never gave his own logic, however. He popped in early in the cycle to quote a bunch of people, say he agreed with what they all said, and vote TwinStorm, and then popped up AGAIN in the cycle to say he agreed with what other people were saying and vote TwinStorm. He also said I do strange things, so he should get exed for that alone /s If KSauce is elim: e!KSauce is compatible with e!BBB and e!CD. Araris is unlikely to be elim with him, though, considering that last minute stall. Doc, I'm not sure what to think, but leaning towards incompatible. Araris I'm conflicted on. While my main argument on e!Araris came from an e!TwinStorm flip, and his stall last night is village leaning, I can't ignore the weirdness of Polly dying last night. It just doesn't make sense, and in past games I've played, the main reason outspoken people haven't gotten NKed has been so that elims can hide among them. The most active person besides me on here is Araris. Doc strikes me as village. His attacks on BBB and later KSauce last cycle felt organic, and he's one of the only people who voted TwinStorm C1 but didn't do so C2. I also just like his vibe, but I know that's not really solid evidence. Aman I'm considering village, mainly for that move late C1. And then TOW and Penguin I just have no information on; seriously, anything would be helpful. So in conclusion, my reads are: Elim leaning: BBB, CD, KSauce? Village leaning: Doc, Aman I'm figuring it out: Araris, TOW, Penguin

Greetings, folks I will return to my traditional analysis tomorrow; tonight, I need to go to bed I think we know what Court everyone is in; if someone can compile that information, that would be great. I brought Araris and CD into the Court of the Protecting with me - we worship Windrunner now. I don't know why the elims killed Polly; superficially, it doesn't seem to make much sense. I was hoping to interact with her more, so that's a bummer Also, @Araris Valerian, you raise a good point about people not voting. Can we get a list of people who didn't vote last cycle? Edit: Araris's point was made in our doc, in case anyone was going to be confused I need to sleep

Sorryyyyyy I seriously intended to post earlier, but I’m on mobile so I can’t see exact times, plus lag, and I had a mini heart attack for a second thinking I was too late I want it as close as possible

Alright Let’s make this more interesting Not liking TwinStorm’s lead in this VC BBB Sorry Jo, had to wait until the last minute

Ekkar Loral knew he could die tonight. The possibility was great; he was well perceived by many, not to mention the Breath he held. The second one. Something about the events of the night struck Ekkar as odd; but he couldn't quite place it. A crack in his confidence; a shadow in the dark. NO. No, he couldn't afford to think that. He couldn't afford to let the insecurities show. He had to be like Evinir. Be like Evinir... but Evinir wasn't here. And Ekkar stood alone, addressing the mass in the courtyard. Insecure. They were all waiting for an announcement, for something. And Ekkar didn't know what to say. His gaze flitted over the crowd gathered, recognizing faces. Names. The people he had grown close to, alongside, in the past ten years. And that gave him a little bit of strength. He wasn't the crazy kid who didn't know who he was anymore. He was Ekkar Loral, priest of the Court of Gods in Hallandren. For the first time, Ekkar Loral knew who he was. A grin beginning to form, he opened his mouth to speak... and his breath caught in his throat. Because standing in the crowd, amidst the faces, hidden among them, stood Evinir Cragborn.

Why? What's your reasoning?

I had forgotten about that, actually Why the unclearness? No, KSauce has not been asking these questions in the doc Not much has been happening in the doc this cycle, actually. All that’s really been said is some notes by Polly. I’m gonna leave the current VC for now to see how things play out Anyone wanna shake things up?

You’re confusing me What I’m saying is even if I switch to BBB, Willshaper’s vote stays on TwinStorm because of you

No, because you beat me in seniority Thanks for the rest of the info, though

Also, I like the tie for now It gives elims a choice Let’s see how they use it It’s also worth mentioning though that until @Amanuensis or @KelsierApologist show up, Willshaper’s vote rests with Ksauce on TwinStorm Any info on Stoneward? So it’s not really a tie

I think I’ll leave Willshaper

Two? What’s the second one? Yeah, it really ain’t…

That’s weird I’m not in any I got the breath last night, remember? So this night, I get to make a new Court with two other people But for now, I’m not in any Also, KSauce, what do you think of recent events? OOOOOH wait I am in Willshaper Nevermind Jo sent me the link and I just never clicked it Well, I just found out something new

Evinir Cragborn! Seriously, though, let's not clutter this thread up Cool! ...'cept for the fact that I'm not in Willshaper, so I have no idea what you're talking about Honestly, I don't think TwinStorm is likely to be elim I just don't know who else to vote, and I already have you down as a potential accomplice for him, so your voice isn't going to help me change my mind Hi! I appreciate the effort I feel like by now, most people have gotten over or even forgotten TwinStorm's pile on Polly C1. Personally, yeah, I'm voting more for the data than anything. For the record, if TwinStorm flips elim, my next targets would be Araris and Aman (who's been oddly quiet this cycle), and if he flips villa, my next targets would be BBB or CD I respect this move; if BBB flips elim, that likely clears TwinStorm, which in turn clears the people v!TwinStorm would clear... *gears turn in head* The question is whether the chance of BBB flipping elim is high enough to risk the information we would get from a TwinStorm exe for a potentially even greater reward Because if BBB flips villa, that still tells us nothing about TwinStorm's alignment and the ensuing data Ekkar Loral was burdened with the power of the gods. He knew the others saw him differently for it: saw it in their quick glances, they're furtive speech. Asking, "why him"? A question Ekkar had asked himself so many times before, and the answer too he still did not know. He had never thought he would find himself in this situation, and yet the past two days had seemingly flipped his life inside out. Was this how Evinir had felt that final month in Bevalis? Ekkar had given up on receiving a response from Evinir. He was acting for himself now; for himself, and yet for everyone. He had no idea what he was doing. But for the first time in his life, he knew exactly what he should be doing. He was riding the waves of a confidence unprecedented to him. And he would not disappoint.

Ahh *gasp* Someone other than me, CD, or Araris is on the “recently browsing”

I'm saying it's relevant because you claimed that Doc was suspicious for potentially hiding on the train; I'm saying that he started it, and then left, before it became the good hiding place we both agree it was Speaking of what I mean when I say Doc left, as I don't think you understood it well, Doc said C1 that he wasn't going to be back online until Monday. As a courtesy, I wouldn't exe him before then - although I have him read more v!leaning, anyways I do, actually I think TwinStorm's death will reveal more than any other I can think of, and we are under little pressure to catch an elim tonight Why? It's common for elims to join trains against each other early on the game, and then leave them I don't think a Polly flip would reveal much As a principle, I agree with this However, I also know that there are a slew of IRL reasons that make that solving difficult Plus, the last time I was in a game with Polly and she was highly active, she was elim But I hear your worries, and I am a little concerned that right now there are only three of us interacting here. However, I don't think we should fire all our pressure on one person The what?

I actually like your justification here, since it makes sense I'm still keeping an eye on you, though Also, forgot to mention earlier, but I'm placing my vote on TwinStorm. I know I said earlier, and I quote, that we were "wasting our time" on him, but my analysis has made me realize how much information we could get out of his alignment. So, @TwinStorm, if you're villa, I'm sorry - but you've gotta take one for the team.

Alright So I've taken my time to go over everything in C1, and I'm finally ready for that analysis post I've been promising for a while Warning: This will be long First, let's go over the story of the train on TwinStorm, and the surrounding events, that led us into this whole situation: The train on TwinStorm first arose shortly past midway through the cycle with Doc's vote on Wednesday night, and was quickly backed up by me. At this point, it was tied with a train on Penguin (Araris and Aman), also with two votes. Nothing big happens until Thursday afternoon, when the train on Penguin quickly dissolves to be replaced by a train on TUH (Araris and Gaea) - at least one member of which we know was Villa (Gaea). Whatever is going on here, the elims don't seem worried. Then, BBB joins the train on TwinStorm. This move garners attention from TwinStorm, who votes BBB - a weird vote if his aim is self preservation, as no one else was attacking BBB. KSauce also expresses that he's leaning towards a vote on TwinStorm, but doesn't vote. TUH makes a retaliation vote on Araris (who already has a vote from Penguin), which I found a little weird, but TUH has just been acting weird in general. The current VC, nearly four hours before rollover, looks like this: Penguin: (1) Aman Doc: (1) TOW Araris: (2) Penguin, TUH TwinStorm: (3) Doc, Me, BBB TUH: (2) Gaea, Araris BBB: (1) TwinStorm Then, CD joins the fray and votes BBB, using logic I personally agree with upon further review, even if I was skeptical yesterday. HOWEVER, CD likes BBB's response to his push and later retracts his vote and switches it to TwinStorm. Our VC, a mere hour before rollover: Penguin: (1) Aman Doc: (1) TOW Araris: (2) Penguin, TUH TwinStorm: (3) Doc, Me, BBB, CD TUH: (2) Gaea, Araris BBB: (1) TwinStorm I notice that the train on TwinStorm has been allowed to reign supreme for a long time, and decide to back the train on TUH instead. Following my move, Aman quickly switches his vote from Penguin to TUH, without explanation - although presumably because he realized Penguin is not dying today. He claims not to have noticed my vote. Our final VC: Doc: (1) TOW Araris: (2) Penguin, TUH TwinStorm: (3) Doc, BBB, CD TUH: (4) Gaea, Araris, Me, Aman BBB: (1) TwinStorm From this, I see two main worlds: One where TwinStorm is elim, and one where he is not. If TwinStorm is elim: First and foremost, this would clear everyone on the TwinStorm train at the end (so Doc, BBB, and CD) because no matter what you tell me, that finale was too close for the elims to have any reason there to resign themselves to a death of one of their own. Second: what the heck were his buddies up to? TwinStorm's vote itself rested on BBB - a terrible strategy for self preservation, considering it stands alone. He didn't even vote TUH at the end - which, actually, is just weird. @TwinStorm, care to elaborate? As for his buddies - there's probably two or three of them. Let's assume they backed TUH at the end: Of the four people on that train (Araris, Gaea, Me, and Aman) I know at least two of us were Villa (me and Gaea). That would place Araris and Aman as elim. It would also explain why the elims backed the TUH train at the end instead of the one on Araris: Araris was a fellow elim. The only question is why TwinStorm didn't vote with them. Let's assume they backed literally anyone else at the end: I don't see any possibility. That would just be sloppy elim behavior. If TwinStorm is villa: Put quite simply, the elims let things play out as they did and stood back to watch the chaos unfold. The only person I see this clearing is Aman: the elims have absolutely no reason, at this point when a village train is so far ahead, to mess up events, even if the alternate train is also village. The elims could be hidden literally anywhere, and the village is in a worse place than if TwinStorm is elim. As the last one to join the train, and a weird vote and switchback with BBB, CD could be considered e!leaning. Projecting even further, e!CD could lead into e!BBB due to that weird behavior as potential distancing - although maybe that's my own read against BBB projecting. So, in conclusion, if TwinStorm is elim, that clears Doc, BBB, and CD, and incriminates Araris and Aman as his allies. If TwinStorm is villa, it likely clears Aman, and the elims could be anywhere. ... My reads, regardless of TwinStorm's alignment: BBB reads elim to me. Like CD pointed out in C1, his first vote is just weird: he calls me out for making blind accusations, but everyone else was doing pretty much the exact same at the start. He then backed me on TwinStorm, although if his reasoning is my own then I naturally agree with it. Also, addressing this post of yours: It's worth mentioning the train on TUH arose, started by a villa, before the TwinStorm train became a real threat - so while it could've turned into a rival train to save TwinStorm, it didn't start as one. And btw, that someone who voted and unvoted Twin was me, and it most definitely wasn't to distance myself and then realize he could end up exed . Araris also reads a little elim to me, just because I don't understand much of his C1 logic behind his attack on Penguin - a lot strikes me as contradictory. His C2 thoughts are also a little odd to me: While I agree the TwinStorm train was a good place for an elim to hide if he flips villa, it's worth mentioning Doc started it - and left before it became that good hiding place. As for Polly, I don't think it's self explanatory, and would like to hear why you say it is. KSauce has been popping up every now and then, but not provided anything meaningful to the discussion. Not sure whether that's e!indicative or not, but stood out to me. With a single post, Polly instinctively rubs me as Villa, particularly with how forthcoming she is about Courts - something I'm still awaiting from other people. Will try to get some RP in later, but I need a break. @ThatOneWorldhopper as As If @TwinStorm as Matrim Cauthon @KelsierApologist as Zyvoxid Linezolid @IcedOutPenguin as ___________ @Doc12 as Evi @Amanuensis as Kosm @Araris Valerian as Arlun @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren as Lharir @CoderDrag0n8 as CD @Hoid Slayer as Ekkar Loral @BigBadBagsworth as Iggdraz the Confused Let's hear some more interaction. I don't want this to go quiet.

Fair, and perhaps I spoke too harshly In the end, all my thoughts could change tomorrow when I go over everything

Alright Don't have time for a real post tonight Will try to be very active tomorrow I WILL make a full analysis I'm disliking how inactive this thread is becoming; we need to pick up the pace And finally, I think we are wasting our time on TwinStorm Aman, I voted before you See ya tomorrow, folks

I did I mean... That post wasn't right. As in, you shouldn't have made it. However, if you're being honest here, we can probably assume your Villa I wasn't truly expecting to kill an elim this cycle, but I was pretty sure that with the time the TwinStorm train simmered, the elims were okay with his death For now, I'm gonna leave a poke on Polly for when she decides to show up and try to sift through stuff later Yes, I have Elsecaller's breath now. And I have an idea for how to use it. I namedropped the fellow members of my Court last cycle just in case they tried to kill me, but honestly, I do think the more transparent we can be with this the better. Tomorrow will probably be a busy day for me, like today and yesterday. I do think I'll have all of Saturday free though to do some solving.

Ooooh dang I forgot about that Elsecaller’s vote currently rests on TwinStorm with BBB Why? I agree with you, just want to hear your reasoning Also, clocking out for the night

Thanks for the VC Call it a gut feeling, but I don’t like the pile on TwinStorm here All he did was one slip up, and while I didn’t love his justification, it was believable to me Honestly, I feel like there’s been a lack of real analysis this cycle; the good thing is, NEXT cycle, there will be a LOT to analyze, and hopefully the weekend will make posting regularly a lot easier For now, I’m willing to back an alternate train on TUH. XxGaea is one of my strongest village reads, alongside Doc, I don’t understand his vote on Araris, and the mood I’m getting from him just doesn’t feel right. The other option to back is Araris, but again, I don’t understand that train. Ekkar walked with direction. Despite the chaos of the last day - chaos he had played a shamefully small part in - things were finally coming into action. As the sun fell, the entire Court simmered in anticipation. And in mourning. Ekkar was on his way to see Elsecaller. He had loved the Returned, worshiped her, and her fate brought a tear to his eye. But he knew he had to hide his emotions, hide his confusion. He had to do as Evinir would. The Court of the Careful had already decided what to do with their breath. Now, the four of them - CD, Lharir, Iggdraz, and Ekka himself - only approached the inevitable.

Hey guys, remember that analysis I mentioned? It ain’t coming. I’m sorry; I really thought I’d have time, but I was doing other things and I doubt I’ll have any real time to post from now until rollover. I too would appreciate an updated VC to make final decisions, and will try to sneak in any more posts I can until rollover

Oh That's... an unexpected surprise Care to explain the Araris sus part?