Wonko the Sane

5 hours ago, Doc12 said:

Also. This is going to make it so much harder for people to trust me when I'm village next game  

Oddly enough, not from me, because I was moderately suspicious of you all game, so this really didn't feel like a shock or anything.

5 hours ago, Doc12 said:

Hey Mist remember when you said my romance reminded you of last game  Feel free to take this sign as anyone i romance in later games also being evil with me. 

Is Zymni holding a gun to Thistle's back? 

18 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Nah, in order to claim that status you have to be at least near the level of Alvron

You know Alv? Are you going through old games, or is he playing again?

Wonko the Sane's Voting Record:

• Day 2-A: Archer (But I said I didn't really suspect him)
• Day 3-A: Doc
• Day 1-B: Mistfallen (briefly) --> Stick --> Burnt
• Loop B Dead Doc: calls out Coco, Burnt, and Stick as possible suspects.
• Day 1-C: Burnt --> Coco --> Burnt --> Coco
• Day 2-C: Mistfallen (only to cover dangerous edge case) --> Doc --> Twin (only to keep my vote from being useless)
• Day 3-C: Stick --> Doc --> Stick
• Day 1-D: Burnt --> Stick --> Doc (and while I missed the fourth exe, I'd been advocating for Coco all day).

Conclusion:

I am a nigh-infallible demigod and none of you should ever question me again.  

12 hours ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

I’m pretty sure it was 43, not 48, gimme a sec, I’ll go check. Never mind, it was 47.

Okay yeah, that checks out. Well, we still don’t know exactly how Burnt got Stone. Perhaps Burnt got bunny then? That would explain how she got enough rupees for it, though I suppose she wouldn’t need to, as she would’ve had enough simply by not buying scents.

Yeah, even before D1-C was over, that was brought up; we killed Coco because we KNEW she could afford Stone, but we acknowledged that if a different Elim had bought Scents, then Burnt could also afford Stone.

11 hours ago, The Unknown Medallion said:

And, seeing how you literally can't be elim, that makes Doc the Keaton user and therefore e. Good enough for me.

Wait, why can't Mist be elim? I agree it's really unlikely, given the surrender, but I'm not aware of any evidence hard-clearing him.

10 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

(10/10) Stick: Mist, coco, Drake, Dive, Araris, Archer, TJ, Hael, Twin, Wahr,

Stick was executed. They were a Minion of Mischief.

1 Execution Remains
Third exe will be forced on
Friday, March 20th @ 10PM EST

Gah! We're going too fast for Zymni's narrative to resolve satisfyingly. I keep having to accelerate my timetable. XD Now Thistle's dead, and I don't even have the space for Zymni to react to it.  

10 hours ago, Wahrheitswächter said:

So Doc has to be elim, there was no reason for e!Hael to out himself as Captain and buss e!Stick, that doesnt make any Sense so

Doc

Well, I wouldn't say that; Mist did hypothesize a pretty plausible story where Hael is convinced that he's the next exe anyway and is going to lose the Loop, so he busses Stick in order to deepwolf and keep himself from being outed when Drake comes back. That said, there's a LOT of e!Doc evidence, most notably to me the fact that it's pretty confirmed at this point that he had Keaton, and thus lied about his scan. (Unless the team is Burnt/Hael/Mist/Stick, with Mist having Keaton, but that's kind of hard to countenance).

5 hours ago, Doc12 said:

You can't exe me! I already killed off Thistle! Loophole! Paradox! I'm free!

I'm not evil

What is your opinion, then, on the disposition of the Keaton mask? Do you believe that Mist had it? And if so, why did Burnt/Hael/Mist/Stick surrender the game when it was literally already won?

Doc. I really can't plausibly see an e!Hael world at this point.

4 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

He couldn’t have. If he bought Scents he couldn’t have gotten bunny. So he had to have gotten bunny then, otherwise he couldn’t have gotten Keaton 

Why couldn't he? He had 48 at the end of Loop A, -20 for Scents, +30 across Loop B means he'd have had 58 going into Loop C. That's plenty for both the Keaton Mask and all the PMs he sent Loop C.

21 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Well, Hael basically went like

-person with Keaton is elim

-if you don’t have it.

-if I have it, Doc has to be Elim for dead doc info

-otherwise doc has it and he’s Elim

And that was pretty convincing. Though, Doc, once the game is over, I’m going to need an answer on why you threw away a silver mask

I really don't think it's fair to say he "threw it away". If and when Doc bought Scents Loop 2, it was not at ALL clear that silver was on the table. At that point, all he had was a single Loop where he'd been the Postman. That's hardly a guaranteed silver mask that he threw away. Heck, in order to get silver he still would have had to be sure he could get Bunny, which was not really something he could control at that point.

This time, when the Song came, Zymni was ready for it. She braced through the searing Light, and stood defiance as the laughter of the Demon King echoed in her...

-----

The Beast awakens in the maw of a leviathan, roaring out its defiance. Nearby refugees and travelers shriek as the tendrilled face erupts from the body of their companion, and a solid plate of Shadow congeals upon the Beast's face. 

A small, floating child looks up with shock as the Beast emerges, eyes narrowing behind an elaborate mask. The Beast ignores the child; it appears weak. But the mask is dangerous. The Beast is reminded of the Dark Interlopers and the Fused Shadow. It roars it's defiance at the mask that wears the floating child; this thing does not serve the Master. It must be dealt...

-----

The song finished, and Zymni found herself again in Thistle's cottage. She shivered, running her hand across her face to confirm that there was no plate of solid darkness resting there. Then, she rose, wrapped herself in scarves, and made her way to the Happy Mask Shop, wincing in the harsh glare of the Sun.

It was time to end this.

Okay, I'm caught up. Oddly enough, I'm currently more convinced of Doc than Stick. Keaton math pretty much proves that Doc had the mask, unless we're in a Hael/Mist world, in which case the surrender is kind of wild. However, I'm left with the question of what, exactly, motivates Keaton!Doc to shift the vote onto e!Stick. The only thing I can come up with is that they'd already decided to surrender, and he was just goofing around.

To further boost my opinion on Doc, I want to bring up his PM data again, which conclusively shows e/e messages sent via PM. That means that either Doc is an eliminator, or Burnt sent those PMs without having info from the Postman. Yes, it's technically plausible that she did so just for fun, or else all on her own made the remarkable deduction that, counter to typical SE rules, the "tineye" in this game could see PM recipients. But just because it's plausible doesn't mean it's probable. The most likely explanation remains a Doc/Burnt team, in which Doc either lied about the PM data, or told Burnt early on about the fact he could see PM recipients.

Geez, a lot happened today, huh. I still need to read like 4 pages of backlog. but my most important thing that no one seems to be aware of is this:

@Mistfallen Soldier, it is impossible to buy two masks. The rules imply that it can be done, but I confirmed early in the game that Aman had changed that part of the rules; during my calculations about the Fierce Deity Mask. He confirmed that it was 100% impossible to own both the Bunny Hood and the Postman's Hat, because once you got a mask you were disqualified from buying another.

That means Keaton HAD to be in your possession, or Doc's. No one else could possibly have had it.

 Burnt. Obviously.

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Burnt 

I'd love to hear the dead doc's thoughts, but I'm looking at Hael, then Drake afterwards. I'm open to considering anyone we exed last loop, but honestly think we have better odds betting on this explanation. 

Really? Why? In your opinion, why did a Burnt/Hael/Drake/<Coco|Twin|Mist> team surrender the game?

1 hour ago, Haelbarde said:

The only person I am 100% certain of is evil in those pairs is Doc. Stick was certainly the better decision than me last round, and I would tend to believe Drake but I cannot be certain. I admit to remaining confused about Coco, Mist and Twin. Mist has had some very weird interactions, particularly at the end of last cycle, while looking at past executions Coco doesn't necessarily look great. 

Mist seems extremely unlikely to me, given the voluntary surrender. If the elim team contains Mist, we would have lost the Loop and thus the game if they'd just NKed someone.

1 hour ago, Haelbarde said:

I guess I'd be particularly interested in where the Bunny, Scents, and Romani masks ended up last loop, as I don't think there were claims in thread regarding that, and they were definitely purchased D1.

I had Romani. The plan was to get myself exed on D3 and reduce us to 5 total dead, meaning we only needed one dead elim. But Aman eventually came down on the side that that wouldn't work, and I would have been counted as dead for the Boss Mask.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

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• Next Page

Coliver's knees were starting to buckle.

It wasn't the revelation of the Dreamers. She'd put that together. If not motivations, that someone present here had arranged for the events of these past few three days. She'd put that together as soon as she'd come back to life from having her heart ripped from her chest the second time.

No, something else was becoming apparent. She'd lived. She'd survived... and yet she wasn't sure she'd deserved it.

Because Rashe died, and some last sliver of Coliver broke with it. She'd survived. Stood on the sidelines. When the Zora were in danger... her people... she stood back. It made sense. Heroically throwing herself into a swarm of ghosts that had just decapitated the Happy Mask Salesman who had led them here would have been stupid, right? That wouldn't leave her alive very long. But then again, neither would throwing herself in between Ap and a barrage of light arrows. It had been Rashe and the other spirits, somehow, who had stopped the pirates. He'd been looking at her. Why had he been looking at her?

She hadn't died. She hadn't found something revolutionary, she hadn't saved Ap... and they'd won the Mask. Without her. Coliver didn't even think she'd heard the song that night; Makazi didn't seem to remember. 

Rashe told her to live. Coliver didn't think what she'd done was what he meant.

She couldn't do this again.

She couldn't.

---

Rashe's knees did not buckle.

It wasn't the death. He was used to that. Even dying and having what spirit he had act as a strange anti-Pirate defense mechanism wasn't... entirely unheard of. But this... this room, this accusation, this acquisition...

That he knew. That he knew far too well.

Rashe stretched out his hand, and his glowing sword faded into existence.

"I do hope I won't need this. But," he paused. "It does seem the proper time?"

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Hey, how do you do this "Next Page"/"Previous Page" thing? It's super cool, and is probably useful for someone who tends to write way to many words per post.  

31 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

I’ll be honest, I want to trust doc. Everything he’s said explaining his actions makes sense to me, even now.

Which makes me want to avoid the question entirely. 
How do you feel about going Burnt, then Stick, and then Coco

Having a sensible explanation for your actions doesn't make you village. Doc's actions also make perfect sense in an e!Doc world. I'm not saying Doc HAS to be an elim, but I think you might be putting too much weight on the fact that v!Doc "makes sense". The question we should be asking is, does e!Doc NOT make sense?

That said, I agree with Stick over Drake, so that's fine for now, at least. I'm less committed to Coco over Twin, but that's the last exe, so I have time to review before then.

36 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Apologies, but I do not agree to that. We must execute 3 elims. In my estimation, that's probably only 2.

I believe Burnt and Stick should be voted out, but that third vote we are probably going to disagree on.

I know you said you're doing a full writeup on your preferred team, but can you give me a sneak preview on why you're so confident in e!Twin over e!Coco? That pair seems hazy at best to me.

13 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

First off, he shared who PMed who loop one and volunteered that information. He did not need to do that, and since Wonko(the loop 2 postmaster) got NKed, we wouldn’t have discovered that was possible till loop 3(if a Elim didn’t get it)

In point of fact, he only volunteered that the list existed. It was only after I pushed for it that he actually produced the list. I noted it as odd at the time but mostly ignored it.

20 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

however, we still need to explain Hael representing the Dead doc accurately. My simple solution, he knew they were going to lose. D3, we went in with the plan to exe Hael. But you claimed that Stick was Elim, and if Hael didn’t share that info, that was pretty much outing two Elims instead of one if he shared the information. So he said that Drake knew Stick NKed him. Sacrificing Stick, but ensuring his own safety, until Doc spoke up, that is. They were going to lose if we exed Hael, so he sacrificed stick, another Elim, making it so we still won, but giving Hael a lot of village cred.

Then they could’ve gone into loop three, letting us exe Coco/Twin and Stick, and NKing burnt, once again letting us win the loop, but since Hael had been so instrumental in getting Stick exed, non of us would’ve voted him, causing us to lose the tiebreaker and the overall game.

According to this hypothesis, absolutely everything went to plan for the elims D3C; they wanted Stick exed. Why, then, the sudden surrender? You think Doc's mask claim is THAT damning, that the entire elim team agreed it was impossible to win anymore because of it?

Zymni sat quietly in the dark, unnoticed, watching Thistle. Watching the others. Listening. And thinking.

Thistle was hurt. Zymni hadn't noticed, had been too caught up in her own problems. But all these events hadn't been easy on the florist.

Zymni remembered crawling, broken, into the Temple of Time. Remembered the searing pain as the Temple's light -- the Goddesses' Light -- washed over her, dislodging her from Time and from Hyrule. She remembered when she'd crashed into Termina. Into a place with no Dark Interlopers, no Fused Shadow, no Mirror of Twilight, no Seven Sages. No Twili. No home. She remembered her anguish and despair, her feeling of being so lost that there could never be a way out. Wandering Clock Town aimlessly in the night. Cowering through the days in bushes and flower beds.

She remembered Thistle finding her in a flower bed and bringing her home.

Termina... mattered, didn't it? It felt silly to even think. All these people, this whole world. Of course it mattered. And yet... somewhere inside, Zymni found she'd been reassuring herself that Termina wasn't REAL, not really. Not like Hyrule, like the Twilight Realm. She'd needed to focus on going home, to save her people from the terrible machinations of Zant, from the ancient evil of the Demon King. To see her family again. What had the fate of some barely-real mirage mattered in the face of that?

Zymni followed Thistle's gaze. Stared at the little child in the green tunic.

Ap. Ap wanted that too, didn't she. She was so afraid, so lost, so alone. But she kept working, kept moving. Because she needed to save everyone. She needed to be with her family.

Ap... was like Zymni.

Zymni remembered her fierce annoyance the previous night, at the old fool who stood in her way. Telling her that his granddaughter would send Zymni home AFTER the little Hero was done with what she needed to do. With newfound disgust, Zymni remembered the distinct feeling of petulant satisfaction she'd indulged in, seeing the old man's head roll.

But he'd been right. Zymni drew herself up sharply, newfound determination singing in her. The Song could wait.

Until after Termina had been saved.

7 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Actually… it might be in our interests not to roleblock either. I’m not going to explain why yet, because of reasons, but I’ll explain tomorrow.

Also, once again. Unless you need to, we should limit what we say. It can wait till tomorrow(probably)

Its a RP day

Are you sure? If you happen to be wrong about Doc, and he DOES have the Great Fairy Mask, he's capable of turning a win into a loss here. I don't think it's very likely, but it's still a consideration.

That said, I do actually think the Bremen Mask is better used trying to hit the NK, which requires we not coordinate it in the thread. I forget who claimed Bremen, but maybe make a list of what you consider to be the 2-4 most likely elims still alive, then roll a die and block whichever you roll?

1 minute ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Which he’s not. We’re going to have to deal with the situation eventually. And I believe Doc. It makes sense to me.

I’m sorry, but you’re going to have to find someone else to convince 

I trust Doc. Doc got Mask of Truth, and scanned Hael, who came up as Elim.

Unless you can convince me not to trust Doc, I don’t see a reason to switch. From my perspective we win either way

You don't need to not trust Doc. I'm saying that killing Stick is optimal REGARDLESS of whether Doc or Hael is an elim.

This is literally every possible team, color-coded:

• Burnt/Hael/Drake/Coco
• Burnt/Hael/Drake/Twin
• Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist
• Burnt/Hael/Drake/Doc
• Burnt/Hael/Stick/Coco
• Burnt/Hael/Stick/Twin
• Burnt/Hael/Stick/Mist
• Burnt/Hael/Stick/Doc
• Burnt/Doc/Drake/Coco
• Burnt/Doc/Drake/Twin
• Burnt/Doc/Drake/Mist
• Burnt/Doc/Stick/Coco
• Burnt/Doc/Stick/Twin
• Burnt/Doc/Stick/Mist

Where the colors are:

• The Loop is already won
• The Loop is already lost
• The Loop can be won by killing Stick
• The Loop can be won by killing Hael

Please, explain why you think exeing Hael is safer than exeing Stick.

1 minute ago, Doc12 said:

Uh... Is it just me or is anyone getting flashbacks to day 1 this loop? When there's a obvious elim between two people, and everyone's pivoting to a second train for mech reasons? Day 1 it was Burnt is probably evil but she can't afford Stone, we need to exe Coco to be safe. And now it's Hael could very well be evil but we really need to exe Stick to be safe? 

I know what I saw, and I'm not letting go of the one real piece of information I have. 

The difference is, there is ALSO an obvious elim between Drake and Stick now. Exeing Stick only loses the Loop if that elim is Drake, AND no one else on the elim team is dead. So, only in these worlds:

• Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist
• Burnt/Hael/Drake/Doc
• Burnt/Doc/Drake/Mist

Given that you're in two of these, you should only be worried if you think the team is Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist. Do you think that?

32 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

So… I still think we should Exe Hael. Because I’m still of the opinion that Coco is Elim, and one of Doc/Twin/Hael is Elim. Twin is already dead. Which means we may have won already. However, the absolute chaos of Doc/Hael/Stick means that one of Hael/Doc is Elim.

I think that Doc is village, all his moves have checked out, his reasons make sense from a Village standpoint. That said, I still think we should Roleblock him tonight just in case. But that leaves Hael as Elim.

Yall have gone on about whether Drake and Stick are Elim, and the fact is, it really doesn’t matter. We have a much better chance if we exe one of Hael/Doc. Since I trust Doc, and because most of the votes are on Hael, we should exe Hael. If we somehow decided to Exe Doc, we should Roleblock Hael tonight. I’m keeping my vote on Hael

There are only two elim teams in which exeing Hael wins but exeing Stick loses:

• Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist
• Burnt/Hael/Drake/Doc

For literally every other possible team, exeing Stick is superior. For example, you say you're of the opinion Coco is elim. Fantastic! We know for a fact that one of Drake/Stick are ALSO elim. Drake is already dead. So if we kill Stick, then we are GUARANTEED to have two elims dead. This isn't just the most probable scenario, it's guaranteed. If Coco is elim, then killing Stick ALWAYS wins the round.

We are not going on about whether Drake or Stick is elim. We are saying that no matter which of them is the elim -- and no matter which of Hael or Doc is the elim -- killing Stick is the optimal decision.

1 minute ago, Stick. said:

It’s a 99 to 1 to me only because of what I’ve seen across these games, historically. I’ve certainly seen worse opspec and I’ve certainly seen people accidentally getting too comfortable in dead chats especially in a case like this where doc’s codeword would’ve been inconsequential to reveal since we have an outed burnt, can see it happening if ash was asked about what burnt had claimed with her codeword 

but ya, i think there’s a 1% chance of that and that’s 1% more than the confidence I have in my alignment being e, so there u go, hope it makes sense 

Oh, sorry, I'm not trying to say you should think you're e or anything. I'm saying you should be more confident that Drake is e than you seem. But if you really see plausibility in the idea that Ash randomly spilled the codeword he gave Wahr in a particular PM, and then that just happened to be the one piece of information Wahr asked for, then I guess I can see why you're hedging.

Looking back over this conversation, I realize we've been talking at cross purposes. I haven't been trying to say you should move your vote, I've just been pushing back against the idea that Hael could still be lying, which I really see as unrealistic. Likewise, I've been reading your messages as trying to defend the idea that an opsec breach is more plausible than Hael/Burnt/Drake/Mist, when you've actually just been defending your vote, yes? Sorry, it seems like it's just been a miscommunication.

1 minute ago, Stick. said:

I’ve already stated that as the more likely conclusion by far? u may be misunderstanding me here 

Okay, I apologize if so.

From my perspective, you appear to be saying you can't be certain Drake is an elim, because Hael could have gotten the code word from elsewhere. But the idea that Hael got the code from elsewhere is at this point as far-fetched as the idea that Burnt is a villager. Yes, because technically we haven't actually seen Burnt's alignment, it's still possible, but it would require her to be acting so ridiculously out of character and against her own self-interests that it's not worth considering.

Likewise, the only way that Hael is lying about Drake is if Ash freely gave away the codeword at some point in the past, and Wahr and TUO don't know about it. This is utterly implausible. So, insofar as anything not mech-confirmed is certain, we can be certain that Drake has claimed Don Gero and is accusing you of killing him.

Again, sorry if I'm misunderstanding you!

Just now, Stick. said:

no I’m saying i can’t say for certain when this information was revealed to the current dead doc, or who else had access to the information previously 

The information was requested on demand by Wahr AFTER Hael relayed Drake's accusation. Wahr and TUO then confirmed the passcode. The only way Hael is lying now is if you think that Ash, apropos of nothing, announced a private codeword that was previously only shared with confirmed villagers to the dead doc for no reason.

For the record, I'm NOT saying we need to trust Hael is Village. I'm saying we have now got pretty ironclad confirmation that Drake has accused you, regardless of Hael's alignment. It's odd to me that you continue to refuse to acknowledge that, and dodge the obvious conclusion from v!Stick's perspective. Why do you refuse to take the clear indication (from your perspective) that Drake is elim? Why are you grasping at wild straws to avoid that conclusion?

Just now, Stick. said:

sure, I think it’s likely we’ve already won if hael isn’t misrepresenting, but i can’t know for certain what’s happening in the dead doc until next loop, when the info being relayed was shared and how isolated it really was, so anything from hael is unreliable fypov and im pretty sure im gonna trust my own role card over speculations   

Are you saying you distrust TUO and Wahr's confirmation that Hael has accurately reproduced information that only Ash, TUO, and Wahr knew?

1 minute ago, Stick. said:

not quite? most ppl were set to just exe hael today in normal circumstances, I felt like this was projected pretty clearly last cycle as the mechanically correct move. and say, in a world where coco is e, and so is hael, this means the elims were highly likely to lose this loop? so i dunno if it’s accurate to say this is them giving us a chance where we had none  - it’s pretty much guaranteeing a win for them in the long run if we didn’t have favourable mech here 

What exactly is your team that includes Coco where we haven't already won the loop? Because we now know that there is an elim in <Drake, Stick>. That is not disputable; the only way to dispute it before was if Hael was lying about Drake's claim; and we now have solid proof from Ash that he is not. So if you want to continue advocating that you are village, you must claim Drake is elim.

Like I said, there is only one world where we exe you and lose: Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist. Is that the world you think we're in right now?

13 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Soooo. Oof. In a theoretical world where a theoretical GM gave a theoretical Postman a theoretical rupee for a theoretical PM delivered to their theoretical self, and that theoretical mistake wasn’t caught until after it was theoretically spent to purchase something, I would be unable to undo the theoretical purchase and any results produced there-of.

As such, Postman will earn 1 rupee each time they receive a PM per turn >>

Note: this is me being a solo GM for a complex game issue and honestly should not be factored into the discussion beyond "Aman's the woooorst"

Gah. Okay, fine.

Anyway, I just finished catching up, and number one observation is that TUO is right.

I still feel VERY uncertain about Hael vs Doc, and I really don't see why anyone else is so certain. e!Hael's actions are JUST as hard to explain as e!Doc's. Right now, we need to focus on what we can be certain of. And as has been pointed out, now that Hael has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he has ongoing access to the dead doc and the continued support of Ash, what was <Hael/Drake/Stick> collapses to <Drake/Stick>. That means, like TUO says, that we should 100% DEFINITELY be exeing Stick, no matter WHAT we think about Hael vs Doc.

There is literally ONLY one world where exeing Hael is superior to exeing Stick: if you think the elim team contains Hael AND Drake, but does NOT contain Coco, Twin, OR Stick. Is there anyone here who thinks that? Are there Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist believers among you?

Please, everyone, Hael vs Doc can be postponed. Drake vs Stick is a sure thing.

Doc. Stick.

14 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Let's say, for example, Jo is a Postman -> 

If Jo sends a PM to Aman, it is NOT +1 because the sender is a Postman. 
If Aman sends a PM to Jo, it is NOT +1 because the recipient is a Postman. 

Jo receives a rupees for ever unique recipient for a message NOT sent by him; Jo himself does not count as a recipient. 

If Jo received 12 rupees is a cycle, it is because:

[Number of unique recipients receiving a message where recipient != Jo AND sender != Jo during the DAY] +
[Number of unique recipients receiving a message where recipient != Jo AND sender != Jo during the NIGHT] = 12

Correct?

14 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Correct

14 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Correct

@Doc12 Your claim was that you received 12 rupees from PMs Loop A, yes? Then was this data a lie?

Quote

D2

Burnt - Hael, Wonko, Araris, Coco, Doc
Me - Wonko, Archer, Dive, Burnt, Coco

N2

Mistfallen - Doc, Archer

D3

Me - Hael, TJ, Mist, Araris, Stick
Mistfallen - Doc
Burnt - Mistfallen
Archer - Wonko, Wonko, Stick, Stick, Hoid 

N3

Burnt - Stick

Because I don't know about you, but I only count ten names in green there. Care to explain?

Well, there are only two malleable assumptions in my analysis:

• I assumed that e!Drake means v!Coco and v!Twin.
• I assumed that Burnt would not have PMed any of her teammates unless Doc was also one of her teammates.

Doc being able to afford a 100-rupee mask is plausible, but it doesn't mean that he's telling the truth. That said, I think we can agree that this claim means <Hael, Doc> must contain at least one elim. Factoring that in, and resetting the above assumptions, I get:

• Burnt, Stick, <Hael/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>
• Burnt, Drake, <Hael/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>
• Burnt, Hael, Wonko, <Coco/Twin/Mist/Doc>
• Burnt, Hael, Mist, <Basically anyone>

Let's assume v!Doc for a second and see where that gets us.

In Burnt/Stick/Hael worlds, we have to question why Hael willingly gave Stick up to the thread. In my opinion, this only happens if the elims are completely abandoning this Loop, feeling that they've lost it already. This only happens if we've already had an elim die, so we have to conclude that Coco or Twin is the final elim.

In Burnt/Hael worlds that DON'T have Stick in them, this is a concerted effort to push a Stick exe through, presumably to win the Loop. if e!Drake, we're again looking at the crazy gambit, meaning Coco and Twin CANNOT be elims. If v!Drake AND v!Stick, then the elims MUST have access to the Loop A dead doc, meaning that there's an elim in <Wonko, Mistfallen>

• Burnt, Stick, Hael, <Coco/Twin>
• Burnt, Drake, Hael, Mist
• Burnt, Hael, Wonko, <Coco/Twin/Mist>
• Burnt, Hael, Mist, <Basically anyone>

Note: Every one of these possibilities has Burnt PMing another elim for seemingly no reason. We must conclude in that case that Burnt knew about the Postman's ability to see PM recipients. Or, I suppose, that she was just feeling silly? I hate to deal with that, but it's not entirely out of character.

Also, looking at this, I did actually miss last time that Burnt/Hael/Wonko and Burnt/Hael/Mist aren't lost games. Somehow my mind went "three elims are alive in these worlds, therefore zero elims are dead". Woops. So these worlds are actually worth considering, as long as the remaining elim is Coco or Twin.

Anyway, I'm up way too late and my analysis is probably suffering for it. I'm going to bed, and hopefully people can logic this through by the time I get up. I definitely feel like we now have enough pieces to be very confident about teams going forward.

EDIT: I realized what my mistake on the supposedly unwinnable teams was: I wrote that paragraph AFTER concluding that those team had to have Doc on them (because of Burnt's PMs), then moved the paragraph around in the post without considering what it did to the chain of logic. Apologies.

1 hour ago, Stick. said:

gun to head, u i guess?  I don’t think drake NKs himself at this stage, and mist Idrt is e anymore coz it doesn’t make a ton of sense either with e!coco and L3D1. been thinking the last is archer so…might do a rupee count for L1 captains myself as well tmr if I get the chance to and look into other possibilities separate to this 

I count a maximum of 8 total rupees across 6 total posts. You're going to need to accuse someone in <Drake, Wonko, Mistfallen>, I'm afraid. There's no way around it at this point.  

So, from what I can see, we can compile what I think is the entire set of all possible elim teams. This isn't an analysis on what I consider likely, it's a full, exhaustive list of literally every team I think is logically possible, given the following assumptions:

• We know there are zero elims among the Loop A dead.
• We know there is at most one elim in the Loop B dead.
• We basically know that Burnt is an elim.
• We can conclude (from the claims today) that there is an elim in <Hael, Drake, Stick>
• We can conclude (from the claims today) that if Stick is village, there is an elim in <Drake, Wonko, Mist>

Given all those as assumptions, we're left with what I see as 4 possible worlds (split by which of <Hael, Drake, Stick> is an elim). The elim team must be one of:

• Burnt, Stick, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>
• Burnt, Drake, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>
• Burnt, Hael, Wonko, <Twin/Mist/Doc/Coco>
• Burnt, Hael, Mist, <Basically anyone>

Now, if we are in a Burnt/Hael/Mist or Burnt/Hael/Wonko world, we've basically already lost, barring Hail Mary plays with masks to block or redirect the NK tonight. So I think we should ignore that possibility, as there's not really a solution. I do realize that this is the category that includes e!Wonko, though, so feel free to take it with a grain of salt.

e!Drake worlds are tricky. I can really only see one valid reason for Drake to kill himself last night -- a WILD play for control of the Loop, by making us exe v!Stick. This only works if we've exed ZERO elims so far this Loop, so it requires a v!Coco, v!Twin world. That leaves us with two elims out of <Hael, Mist, Doc>.

We also have Doc's PM data from Loop A. There are three possible interpretations to it: either Doc is an elim, Burnt managed to figured out in advance that the Postman would see all PMs, or no PM in Loop A was sent between an e/e pair. Assuming Burnt didn't figure it out, we can reduce the reasonable teams to:

• Burnt, Stick, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>
• Burnt, Drake, Doc, <Hael/Mist>
• Burnt, Hael, Wonko, Doc (probably lost)
• Burnt, Hael, Mist, Doc (probably lost)

And then we have the most straightforward world: Burnt/Stick. Based on the PM data, this reduces to two worlds:

• Burnt, Stick, Doc, <Coco/Mist>
• Burnt, Stick, <Doc/Twin/Hael>, <Doc/Twin/Hael>

So, interestingly, what we find is that Doc is on nearly every plausible elim team. I didn't think that's where I'd end up going into this post, but hey, what do you know?

Stick. Doc.

For the record, I still think that Stick is likely an elim. I just think that Burnt/Stick/Twin/Hael is VERY unlikely, and that's the only scenario I can see that voting Stick is better than voting Doc.