Gears
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I bid a pizza spiked with the Bands of Mourning to not keep your information secret from me. No one has responded to my proposal, which is as follows: I think this is sound, especially since 1. We are fairly far from XLo, 2. Those people are vote manipulators, who would be useful, and 3. No one has adequately addressed my suspicions on Danex. Give me pros and cons of my proposal. Who's for, who's against?
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If Danex is vil, so are the Greys. Otherwise, Quinn would have voted Danex and gotten a vil!Brown killed. The fallacy so many are engaging in is that they assume Danex to be village. I believe the opposite. Proposal: X Danex. If they're vil, we clear two people. If they're not, we kill an elim and narrow the pool of elims to two people.
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Then the elims have no Grey, under this logic, since there are only 2 and any effort to save Quinn from the X would either succeed or hit an important villager. As such, we now have fewer targets. I'd like to point out that the only refutation of my point is one that acknowledges its correctness and points out an edge case. Jam, your point is excellent, but stop ninja'ing me.
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That... is not my argument. My argument is that IF Danex was vil, THEN Quinn would have voted them to save themself. SINCE Quinn did not do that, Danex is not vil. I am aware that this is a logical fallacy, but there was no reason for Quinn to not vote Danex if Danex is vil.
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If not you, then who? Our other options seem to be for no reason. You were simply removed as an option, which I did not understand. I want to X you because there are reasons to X you. What are the reasons on the others? They are Grey Ajah? They were bonded to an elim? These are not good reasons. These are not the sort of reasons I consider to be valid. You have reasons. They don't, so tell me what I'm missing. Tell me who to vote and why. Give me a target. I was talking about Quinn not self-pres voting on Danex. They could have tied it with an important villager, and if there is an elim!Grey, maybe saved Quinn.
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Liranil vote, no Quinn self-pres/tie vote [and elims would want tie, especially on vil!Brown], assumption of 1 elim Grey by nearly everyone leading to scenario where Danex is being saved by both parties, some more things I can't remember. Being right makes you look better. Besides, that was the consensus, with or without you.
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Tie could be orchestrated, especially with assumption of 1 elim Grey. I don't remember your village playstyle. Your role is more important, especially if Lotus is an outbounded Warder. I have refuted these points several times in the past, and I have been ignored. To elaborate on this point: Danex is a more important elim than Striker. Danex knows they have a village vote manip on their side because of C1. They have an elim!Grey (and if they don't, they have 2 village vote manips on their side). Easy enough to break the tie. Besides, lies are possible.
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What "other stuff"? I gave you a stay of execution for 1 cycle, to be possibly extended if the Lotus X bore fruit. If it hadn't, I would have returned to you for lack of better options and lingering suspicions. Now, we have more to analyse, and yet everyone seems to have completely dropped you in favor of random votes on people for their roles.
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I must admit, it is nice to see someone agreeing with me about Danex [even if those tables are a nuisance to read on mobile]. Voting someone strictly because they are a role seems unfair, and I'd be more willing to X Devotary than Jam, if only for quantity of contributions. I read Jam as village, but Devotary as null. Burnt is also at null, but Danex still bothers me. Why do we think that elim!Lotus clears Danex again? Give me reasons based on behaviour, not roles, for why each of the candidates should and shouldn't be X-ed.
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I vetted this in our PM, but I'll list some flaws. 1. Now the elims want to kill them, they won't have Warders, and we probably don't have another Yellow. Speaking of, we'd have to not X Lot, since Lot and Bubbles are bonded, and the only other candidate is Danex. However, if we can get it to work, go ahead. Maybe take Burnt's scan this cycle and Danex's for a while? Gears Somewhat Approved [TM] Also, stop ninja'ing me.
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So, things we need to discuss. 1. What will Lot's flip give us? 2. What do we do based on Lot's flip? 3. Danex? Illwei seems to think that Lot/Dan is NOT E/E, which seems reasonable. As such, if vil!Lot, X Danex? If elim!Lot... What then? Where do we turn? A reads list, because I really need to get better that. My "Trust"s: My darling Aes Sedai, Jam [for confusion, effort, etc] My "Will Listen To"s: Illwei [good points, I'll listen for now, but you always make me suspicious of you by merely existing], Matrim [who seems to be following Illwei, may be hiding], Archer [I've agreed with a lot of their points] My "I haven't the faintest idea"s: Bubbles [you're too quiet, haven't said anything of substance, but Bubbles is my favourite bottle of lightning], Orlok [your previous incarnation was absolutely silent], Order [completely unmemorable], Books [also unmemorable], Devotary [also also unmemorable] My "I cannot trust a word you say"s: Condensation [I literally don't remember you, and the WGG concept just spoils it. I won't pursue your demise, but still. Noted.] My "Naughty little rat"s: Lot [based on elim interactions], Danex [I've stated my reasoning. I'll just lay off for one cycle]
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Watch the end approach. It slides past us like the wyrms of old. You breathe, for the moment.
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They dream of plummeting stars, of the madness beyond the brink, and they retreat into their safe havens. They are cowards.
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The remnants sang of the time of the lost, of halcyon days and metal now rust.
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They say it has teeth made of glass and eyes made of coal.
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4 strong elims [our guess is 3 Aes Sedai, 1 in-bounded Warder, which basically gives them an extra life] or 5 weaker elims [more outbounded Warders and Aes Sedai]. I trust Jam because of their efforts and agonies in the beginning [though that's dropped, possibly due to busy-ness]. While Bubbles hasn't done anything to prove themself either way, I would be more willing to trust them [mainly because I want them to live, because friendship]. Besides, I suspect out-bounded Warders exist [elim!Warder to vil!Aes Sedai], so Lot doesn't really imply anything about Bubbles. As such, Bubbles doesn't really seem elim yet.
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To be quite frank, this does not entirely abate my suspicions on Danex. Quinn intentionally did not tie it with Danex, implying that such a tie would be disadvantageous for the elims, Danex has been consistently saved by vote manip, and Quinn was a Red, which is strictly worse than the Brown, so they would prefer Quinn dying to Danex dying. However, I will release Danex from my sights for now. [Just for now, though. I'm letting them go for now.] I think at least one of Lotus, Archer, or Danex is an elim, and the tide seems to be towards Lot. Question: If Lot is vil, which of the two will we go for? I want to go for Danex, but I fear I am biased.
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The second Liranil vote. Very suspicious, no one has even contested it. Also, encouraging a tie was an opportunity for the [hypothetical] elim!Grey to save one, thus ensuring that at least one survives. Besides, Striker didn't even end up X'ed, so it was probably a bluff.
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Danex will eat up our discussion because I suspect them because of reasons no one has refuted, and because we have no other suspects. The other X candidates are dependent on trust/suspicion of Danex. I suspect Danex, no one has given me a good reason not to suspect Danex, and I don't particularly suspect any of the quite frankly subpar alternative candidates. I will continue to push a Danex X until someone gives me a good reason not to and a solid alternate.
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Danex is the only person we've ever had suspicion on, their Liranil vote was suspicious, and so many convenient counter-X's sprung up to defend them. The other cases have absolutely no reasoning. Danex will eat up our discussion until they die. We must X them. Besides, the being okay with a tie thing could have been a bluff or depending on the elim!Grey.
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IDEA that Kai [Breaker] came up with [thanks, brilliant Aes Sedai worthy of veneration and much respect]: Was anyone bonded to Striker? @TJ Shade, would we be told if Striker/anyone who died had a Warder/Aes Sedai? Striker's [hypothetical] Warder may not have been able to protect C2 [protected C1, for example], and so Striker died. Kai and I suspect that of the 3 Aes Sedai that the elims probably have, at least 1 was bonded to a village Warder. If you were bonded to Striker, what did they say? What propaganda have they murmured into your ears? Our guess for the elim team distribution: 3 Aes Sedai and 1 Warder. 1 unbonded Aes Sedai, 1 Aes Sedai/Warder pair, and 1 outbounded Aes Sedai.
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Look, Danex is going to eat up discussion until we get rid of him one way or another. The Liranil vote is still a point against them, the vote manip is a snag, and the Xs we've had thus far have been votes on people for no reason whatsoever. We are stuck here, and this can only be solved by X-ing Danex. Kai, thank you for your loyalty on this day. Thus far, we've used logic and reasoning to trap Danex, and people have saved them over and over. For the village to progress, we must strike them down.
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Yes. Liranil. Also, Kai wants to tell the thread that they disagree with me about vil!Browns. They think Browns are great for the village.
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That is useless. 1. I am a Warder. I will survive and this will give no information. 2. I am not one of the major suspects. Perhaps kill a person under fire, such as Striker, Archer, Condensation. The only reason I see for your suspicion on me is that you dislike me telling roles what to do. I do that every single game, regardless of alignment. Get over your pet peeve and think rationally. [In retrospect, this is a bit harsh. Please do not take offence. I mean no harm]
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Danex's Liranil vote. It jumped off flawed reasoning, engaged in a logical fallacy, and screamed indecisiveness. In fact, because 1. I see no case for Striker, 2. I genuinely suspect Danex, and 3. I don't want to let roshambo dictate my actions, I'm re-voting Danex. @Breaker, if you don't want me to do this, you have to beat me in a roll off or another roshambo game. If I win, you have to vote Danex too. Deal? Yes, explain. Reasonless votes automatically demote you.