Mzuka

On 8/11/2022 at 0:13 AM, Child of Hodor said:

That's a good point.  It asks Taravangian to take it up, so it clearly feels it needs a Vessel and the Vessel basically serves as the decision-making mind that directs it.  

I think it's more sapient and able to act on it's own than the other Shards we've encountered. Maybe like you say animal-level, a horse trying to buck Rayse off for all of RoW because it thinks he's a lousy rider.   

Ok I see where you're coming from, think I'm convinced. The idea of this Shard becoming sapient and going on that revenge tour is really interesting as well, I kind of want to see that happen.

22 hours ago, Child of Hodor said:

Yeah I think that is the theme of his emotions, conflict and aggression. From what little we got of Taravangian's POV after ascending he has the logical side that wants to plan and the emotional side that is all "burn, kill".  Frost and Hoid consider the Shard to be Hatred and Harmony thinks all the destruction is what the Shard truly wants.

It's weird that a god of powerful emotions routinely takes them away from his followers. It's his main selling point to Moash and Dalinar. My crack theory is Odium only uses those other emotions as fuel for the Hatred. 

Taravangian will be great as the book 5 villain. I kind of hope he doesn't last beyond that. I'm more curious to meet the Shard since it has a mind of it's own and can talk.  I really like idea that the divine hatred of a specific god has a mind and it's real mad that 16 people killed the god and stole that god's power. It's got a hit list it's going through. 

Has it developed a mind of its own yet? I thought that for a Shard to do that the power has to be left alone for some time, and Rayse had it since the Shattering until Taravangian picked it up.

It is really strange that Odium takes powerful emotions away, I like your theory. I've always seen a parallel between those exchanges and the Adolin/Maya scene in ROW (Sacrifice). Adolin is feeling a lot of strong emotion, righteous anger etc. and he gives Maya strength.

Quote

Maya’s voice grew louder, gasping breaths punctuated by ragged howls. And in that moment, Adolin … felt her pain somehow. A deep agony. And … anger?...

Take it, Adolin thought to her. Take some of my strength. She looked right at him, and despite her scratched-out eyes, she saw him. Adolin felt something, a warmth deep within him. Maya drew in air, filling her lungs.

Sanderson, Brandon. Rhythm of War (STORMLIGHT ARCHIVE) . Orion. Kindle Edition. 

It's almost like the opposite: he feels Maya's pain and gives her strength. My crack theory is that this is related to Odium becoming a true part of Roshar (through BAM etc.) and that we're seeing a kind of Radiant bond that involves that power and not just Honor/Cultivation.

On 7/16/2022 at 0:12 AM, Use the Falchion said:

I think you're forgetting that Brandon can write and revise at the same time, and that he plans on writing all of those books within the five years. I'm not sure he is or should be beholden to the idea of all of those releasing in those five years. That would be too much IMO. Era 3 and the Elantris books could make it, but not Nightblood. And frankly, I think that's fine. Again, my belief is that Stormlight 6 will be released before 2031.

When I tried to plot it out it out a year or two ago, I accounted for Era 3 taking longer. Brandon has said that Era 3, Elantris sequels, and Nightblood should all take around 6 months each. Assuming he finishes all of his revisions and work on Stormlight 5 by June 1, 2024 (which feels pretty generous at this time), a schedule may look something like: 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

June 2024 - Horneater Draft 1*

July - Aug 2024 - Horneater revisions & Mistborn 8 outlining

Aug - Dec 2024 - Mistborn 8 Draft 1 (the writing time on this one is faster since first books in series always go by faster for Brandon)

Jan 2025 - Era 3 outlining*

Feb - July 2025 - Mistborn 9 Draft 1

July 2025 - Palate Cleanser

Aug 2025 - Feb 2026 - Mistborn 10 Draft 1 (it needs more time since it's a finale) 

March - June 2026 - Mistborn 8 Revisions & Elantris 2 & 3 outlining.** (These outlines can bleed into the palate cleanser time, if revisions go long or demand all of Brandon's focus this time around.)

July 2026 - Palate Cleanser

Aug - Dec 2026 - Elantris 2 Draft 1 (and Mistborn 9 revisions if he wants to get ahead, but I doubt it)

Jan - June 2027 - Mistborn 9 Revisions & Elantris 3 Draft 1

July 2027 - Palate Cleanser

Aug - Dec 2027 - Elantris 3 Draft 1 (if it's not done; if it is done, then Nightblood moves up a few months, which in turn moves the revisions up, which in turn moves Stormlight up) & Nightblood outlining.** 

Jan - June 2028 - Mistborn 10 Revisions, Stormlight Era 2 outlining, and Nightblood Draft 1

July 2028 - Palate Cleanser

Aug - December 2028 - Elantris 2 & 3 and Nightblood revisions, Stormlight 6 Draft 1 starts. 

All 2029 - Stormlight 6 Draft 1 continues

Late 2029 or Early 2030 - Stormlight six release. We're all assuming that Brandon will start the back half of Stormlight with it being the size of OB and RoW, when he's probably more likely to go back down to TWOK or WoR size books. That could take him anywhere from 8-9 months to the full 11-12 months of pure writing. If it's the former and he gets a good chunk (roughly 30-40%) written in 2028, then I don't think a November 2029 release date is too far-fetched. It'd be Herculean, but not far-fetched. Which is fine, since either time is still before 2031. 

 

 

Alternatively, if Brandon does decide to get ahead with the Mistborn 9 revisions Aug-Dec 2026:

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Aug - Dec 2026 - Elantris 2 Draft 1 & Mistborn 9 Revisions (pre-outlined and excited for the book should mean that Elantris 2 could work on a quicker schedule)

Jan - June 2027 - Elantris 3 Draft 1 & Mistborn 10 Revisions

July 2027 - Palate Cleanser

Aug 2027 - March 2028 - Nightblood outlining and Draft 1, Stormlight Era 2 outlining

April - May 2028 - Palate Cleanser

June 2028 - Feb 2029 - Elantris 2 & 3 and Nightblood revisions, Stormlight 6 Draft 1 

Feb - Aug 2029 - Stormlight revisions and (and Nov/Dec release)

 

In this case, the release dates would be roughly:

2024 - Stormlight 5 & Horneater 

November 2026 - Misborn 8

November 2027 - Mistborn 9 

November 2028 - Mistborn 10

2029 - Elantris 2 (Spring) & Stormlight 6 (Nov/Dec)

2030 - Elantris 3 

2031 - Nightblood

 

Not listed: Skyward sequel trilogy novels (I'm guessing they'll be 2024-2026), The Apocalypse Guard and any potential sequels (I'm also guessing 2024-2026 or something similar), Boatload of Mummies (Isaac's book should be finished by the end of this year, I'd assume, so it could go in 2023 or even 2024 as a nice bridge between TLM and Era 3), The Atzlanian (no possible way to confirm a release since it's not even close to being written, but I'm hoping for a 2023 or 2024 release, if Brandon can find a solid coauthor this year), Lux sequels (no idea, but I think if it is a trilogy, 2023 and either 2024 or 2025 is feasible). 

Things could easily move up a few months if Brandon finishes all of his revisions Stormlight 5 before June 1, 2024 and/or if the palate cleansers aren't really needed.

 

Again, all of this was based on Brandon's words and desires before the Secret Projects. He supposedly has more writing days now, since his travel days are in the teens and twenties rather than eighties or even over a hundred, despite those days being taken up by meetings at the moment. I have a feeling that books could be finished slightly quicker than before on the whole, especially when the meetings calm down as Sanderson focuses in on 1-2 projects at a time. Alternatively, the main books would be finished at a slightly slower pace, but we may get more quirky, fun one-off books. Either way, I'm still of the belief that 2029 isn't impossible, and while 2030 is more likely, we won't be waiting 7 years between Stormlight 5 and Stormlight 6.

 

 

*I'm giving it about a month since I'm guessing it'll be somewhere between the length of Edgedancer and Dawnshard, but who knows. 

*Brandon has talked about how he outlines and writes the first book in a series and then goes back to outline the entire series. 

**For the outlining slots, depending on how long it takes, Brandon can use that spare time to work on other projects like collaborations, write and/or revise scripts, or even write more Secret Project novels. Outlining usually doesn't take more than a month or so, so he'd have 3-4 months of spare time to do with what he wills, or other things that need to be done. He could also just use the time to get ahead, but I think "giving" (as if it was our time to give) Brandon freedom to use that time as he desires would result in an overall better outcome. 

***If Elantris 3 is finished, then I'd say Brandon could go straight into outlining and writing Nightblood, with a desire to get ahead of the curve when it comes to his other revisions. 

This is very detailed and comprehensive, consider me convinced. I'd like to read the book sooner rather than later too, so I'm definitely not gonna complain!

15 hours ago, StormingTexan said:

Man I just hope SA adaptation is held off for a bit. I'd worry that it would become a GoT situation where studios outpace the source material (although I have like 500% more confidence in Sanderson of making it work). Granted there is a ton already and with the in-world time skip the studio would get a buffer of 10 years of actor aging but you never know what can happen. 

If season 1 of a SA adaptation were to air around the same as Stormlight 6 came out, I think we would be fine (even if there wasn't a 10 year break). Large scale shows take time to produce so by the time the show reached season 6 (assuming a book a season), he'd probably be on book 9.

With the time jump accounted for and the possibility for a TV adaptation to be split into 2 series, they could probably adapt Stormlight soon after book 5 comes out and then just wait until he was several books into the back half to produce the sequel series.

8 hours ago, Use the Falchion said:

Humorously, I feel like it's the opposite...or at least it was. I think Storlight 6 in 2029 or 2030 is more likely than 2031. 

Brandon's talked in the past about how he plans to Mistborn Era 3, Elantris 2 & 3, potentially The Apocalypse Guard, and Nightblood during the five years between Stormlight 5 & 6. At the time it felt Herculean, but now with Brandon seemingly having more time - well, potentially having more time again, once the movie/tv stuff calm down - I think it's possible. Brandon says that it takes him about six months for 200-250k word books. If Brandon plans on writing 6 books of that length, then it should take roughly three years, averaging about two books per year. (Granted, my old, detailed analysis that predicted when and how long it'd take to write each book is out of date.) The extra writing time and days that the pandemic has built into Brandon's schedule can, in theory, balance out the new responsibilities of movie/tv stuff once the meetings die down (or rather once 2-3 projects are picked up and homed in on) alongside writing those six books. Depending on how it's split, Brandon can also revise and write at the same time, so by the time he gets to that final year, he could be revising either Elantris 3 or Nightblood as he outlines the back half of Stormlight in preparation for a Stormlight 6 2029/2030 release, depending on how he's feeling and his responsibilities at the time. Although if he finds out he has a year left before Stormlight is scheduled to come out, I'd love to see him spend time writing more Secret Project books instead of Stormlight coming out sooner. Or maybe he could have more Stormlight written and ready before he announces another batch of Secret Project books. I know it wasn't really possible this time around, but in the future, it might be!

Hmmm to be honest that still seems pretty tight to me. SA5 is set for 2024, so even if he wrote and released Mistborn Era 3, Elantris and Nightblood in 5 years, he would be finished with them in 2029. It's at least a year and a half from when he starts writing a Stormlight book to when it's released, so that's mid 2030 at best - and that's if he starts writing SA6 at the beginning of 2029.

Also, I have a feeling the Mistborn 3 books will be a bit longer than the W&W averages. Could be balanced out by the fact tht he's writing them all through though. It's ages away regardless and I feel like this arc is going to have satisfying conclusion to make the wait bearable - especially with all the dope stuff he's releasing in between.

@Child of Hodor and @agrabes I guess it comes down to opinion, neither of us can say how Brandon really feels about writing SA5. And I completely agree with focusing my excitement on what's coming next (even though I'mn hype and hopeful for later era cosmere).

4 hours ago, Child of Hodor said:

His work ethic isn't in doubt. He's going to continue to do stuff, no question about that. Will he be writing books, scripts for tv shows, story bibles for videogames? He posted a video where he does an in-depth analysis of that's wrong with the the Bumblebee movie script recently. If he's script doctoring the Bumblebee movie I don't think he'll be hands off on his own adaptations and as the post makes clear he doesn't need the money so he has leverage to get final say.

I've been calling him Brandon "I accidently wrote a book" Sanderson long before the 4 extra books jumped ahead of Stormlight 5 in publication.

https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/98408-enough-with-skyward/?do=findComment&comment=1250911

He's going to keep thinking of other things he'd rather be doing and now it isn't limited to writing other books. But on the subject of books did you catch that he's recently been thinking of doing a big revision of White Sand prose so he can publish it? After doing those graphic novels and an omnibus revision of the graphic novels which were done specifically to free him up from doing a massive revision of the prose? https://wob.coppermind.net/events/486/#e15642

Stormlight 6 release: 2031

 

You're implying that it's not his work ethic that's in doubt, but his focus/interest, which ignores Chaos's point that the cosmere is Brandon's primary love. Finishing this story as a whole - which the Stormlight back 5 is essential for - is his main goal. Saying he's not eager to write more Stormlight seems pretty wild and baseless. 

He has discussed numerous times the amount of books he has left to write in his lifetime to finish and the schedule he needs to adhere to to finish it - and he's not only proven his work ethic, but his time management. If there's an author/creator in the world that's earned the benefit for the doubt from his audience, it's Sando.

This stays true even with Hollywood knocking - we've been expecting adaptations to come into play for a while now so it's not exactly a surprise. I imagine that part of the reason it's been so upsetting for his schedule this last year is cause it's early stages and he hasn't yet figured out how to incorporate this into his routine. I'm sure he will. I don't think he would risk leaving Stormlight/other parts of the cosmere unfinished simply so he could adapt stories he already finished.

Also, Stormlight 6 2031 is not bad at all (too optimistic if you ask me). Book 5 comes out 2024, and in that gap he's writing and releasing the entire Mistborn Era 3 Trilogy, and who knows what else. Doing that, and writing and releasing a Stormlight book in 7 years? That would be Herculean. Feel like we would be getting just a bit spoiled as a fandom if we complained about that.