Mr Doctor

Plausible, but the potential problem is that it costs us another player to the Elims' Night kill. It's possible that I won't be around for rollover, but I'll do my best. I'll leave my vote and what may be my final thoughts for the Day here. I can't say that I like the idea of lynching an active to find out more about another active. While on paper it looks like lynching Rath will let us either lynch or vindicate Fifth and potentially kill 2 Elims in a row, we can't guarantee that. If both of them die, then we're down to 3 or 4 active players. That's sort of depressing, and furthermore it gives the Elims an easy run to kill off all of the active Villagers and then rule over a room full of inactives. Currently we don't have much information, and while we can "spend" a player to gain more, I think that we're getting to the point where every player is valuable, and a consistently active player is doubly so. On the other hand, if Rath flips Elim, then we learn that Fifth is probably less insane than we thought, and we're most likely down to 1 Elim left. The counterargument to the smaller active pool is that it'll be easier to pick out the bad apples, and that might get us the win-con (assuming that the remaining Elim isn't an inactive). That's all very tempting, but I still feel like my previous point is still relevant. This is a time when spending active players is riskier and riskier, even for the information gain. I understand if other people want to take that risk, but I'm not willing to do the same. I can't support a Rathmaskal lynch just yet. He reads well enough for me, he's defended himself adequately, and I don't feel quite desperate enough to go for Fifth's theory. I doubt that I can delay the Rath lynch, but I'll put my vote on Straw, because he's the most incriminating of the inactives so far. If Snipexe hadn't claimed and gone uncountered, my vote would be on him. Come next Cycle, I think that we'll be in a better position to lynch an active, because we'll have more information. This is not a vote of great suspicion. I was never that convinced that Straw was worth lynching earlier when he was accumulating votes, but now I'm struggling for options and I don't have any decent suspicions on anyone else. But it's 1am for me, and I'm trying to not be sick in time for an exam in 3 days, so I'll provide more thoughts once I'm awake again. If things develop differently I may rescind this vote, but when I'm tired and sick this is the best that I can do. Sorry, can't think of anything to sell you. But you know what I would buy? Another week of exam study and an unbeatable immune system.

Do you have any specific suggestions? Clock's ticking, and even though it's not pleasant to kill someone off when you don't have any major suspicions, it may still need to be done. I'm striking Elbereth and Snipexe from the list because Elbereth is all but confirmed to be Max, and no one's countered Snipexe's Giant claim. That leaves us with Walin, Manukos, Burnt Spaghetti, and Straw. I'm leaning more towards Straw or Manukos, although I don't have much on either of them.

My thinking was that if Fifth is an Elim and going after both of you with intention to lynch, then it's unlikely that both of you are Elims. That's the primary reason, but your reads of Sart also contribute to it. It's not quite that clear-cut, but it would be a point in Sart's favour if you were Village, and vice versa. This is reasonable. The issues that I take with people killing Villagers in self-defence is based solely in the fact that the results of their actions, regardless of intent, is a dead Villager. Even if it's not reasonable to suspect someone because of that, there's a piece of me that trusts the person less because of what they caused. Your defences are also admirable, as I dislike it when people dodge and avoid suspicions against them (Rand for example, and Sart to an extent ). I'm bringing my read a few ticks closer to Village because of this. This is a good point, as Elims would benefit most from killing off the inactives with lynches, as it brings them closer to their win-con without much hassle. It's the most efficient way to remove players, because Night kills can be used against more active people where the lynch would be more likely to fail. However, the alternative argument is that by lynching our active players, we risk doing the Elims' work for them, because we may get down to too few active Villagers to reliably lynch the active Elims. I'm not sure if more active players favours the Village or the Elims. On one hand, a smaller pool of players when kills are still going off means we have less suspects to consider. On the other, it also means that there's a countdown where each Night loses us another active player, which makes it harder to lynch the Elims when they become more obvious. That's not inconceivable. Rand was more suspected than Straw, so it might have been a move to allow the least-suspected Elim to survive. The only counter to that I see is that Straw hasn't really been active enough to justify Rand's death to save him. That might just be unfortunate timing, however.

What do you think of the idea of lynching inactives? I'm sort of leaning that way, but I'd want everyone to be in agreement about it. Oh, never mind . I'm pretty confident that Fifth is Village. Insane, yes. A public menace, of course. Pissing on the floors and screaming about Guards in the tapestries...well, you can see for yourself. But for whatever reason, his madness seems benevolent, whereas earlier in the game it would have earned suspicion and even a vote. The fact that he's tunneling hard against Rath and Sart doesn't necessarily seem AI, it seems like he's wanting to have some fun with the game. It seems like a move that's far too risky for an Elim unless, as I stated a bit earlier, he's the last active Elim trying to squeeze some fun out of a quiet game. Of course, my read could change depending on how Rath and Sart flip. I'm not convinced just yet. I'm going to take a look at Rathmaskal for myself and see how much I agree with Fifth's theories. I haven't really been all too impressed with his behaviour this game, but not enough to lynch him. Until now, when the lack of information and clear targets means that I may have to lower my threshold for what is offending and what isn't. Something that a Rathmaskal lynch would do for us would tell us whether Fifth is evil insane or (mostly) harmless floor-pissing insane. A Village Rath would probably mean a Village Sart and an Elim Fifth, whereas an Elim Rath would do the opposite. I'm almost willing to take that gamble for the information benefit alone, but at this stage in the game, where the Elims are closer to their win-con and such an attempt could lose us 2 out of 5-6 active players... Yeah, I'm not taking that. Not to mention that whomever gets vindicated the most would probably end up being a target for the Elims that Night, so that's 3 out of 5-6. Because of that, I'm not willing to vote for Rath based solely on Fifth's theory and the idea of vindicating someone. We really don't need a higher inactive proportion, and the cost of losing two potential Villagers is too high. Sorry, Fifth, but I'm going to have to do my own research on this one. But while I'm here, would anyone want to buy some carpet cleaner? I've caught wind (quite literally, the wind brought the smell to me) of someone who has gone rather mad and urinated upon the carpet. This carpet cleaner is guaranteed to get anything out of carpet. Including the carpet itself! You heard it right, future customer: this carpet cleaner is so effective that it cleans the carpet completely away! Other carpet cleaners only get a proportion of the grime, but our cleaner gets all of it by ensuring that there is no carpet for the grime to stick to! There's no reason to wait! You have the perfect excuse to go and buy more carpet from our convenient sister company that sells the most soluble carpets at inconceivable prices. Did you find a label on your carpet cleaner bottle that says "Hydrochloric Acid"? Fear not! It's a simple packaging error in our factory. Bring the bottle back and we'll give you a free NDA. That's right, a free contract that requires you to never speak of anything to do with our products or company ever again! Do you have a choice in signing it? You bet that you don't.

This makes Rathmaskal look a bit worse. He put the vote on Jondesu, albeit in self-defence, but he did it nonetheless. Not only that, but used his Rum to ensure that he remained safe, or in another light, as a way to kill a Villager. I'm unsure about whether or not I let self-defence define alignment. On one hand, it's logical that someone should defend themselves because they're sure of their alignment. On the other hand, solidifying a vote on a Villager is never a good look. Rath's attempt to provide definitive proof of his Village-hood hasn't eventuated in anything in his favour. His response to Fifth here doesn't seem the best in terms of tone, which gives a bad gut read. Additionally, he flips a bit of suspicion back onto Fifth, which isn't a good look. However, I'm not willing to lynch an active when, as Elandera says, there are so many people who haven't said anything for a while. I'll write up a list of consistently inactives: Walin Has stated that he's going to try and be as neutral as possible. People have had some suspicions against him, most recently being Rathmaskal, and Drake stated some suspicions before he died. @Burnt Spaghetti you had some thoughts about Drake's suspicions of Walin, have you made any progress on that? Manukos Has had suspicions of Jondesu, was alright with the lynch on Doc12, and would be alright with a lynch on HH and Snipexe. All but Snipexe are confirmed Villagers, and Snipexe has just claimed Giant. Straw Suspicions have been made against him for his behaviour. Rand did attempt to start a lynch on him. Is probably going inactive because of his own game starting up. Voted on Doc12 by piggybacking on Elandera's poke reasons, without saying why he thought that they were reasons for anything more than just a poke. Granted, Fifth did the same thing. Snipexe The Giant, apparently. I really didn't like his sudden tunnel on Sart with no backing after attempting to lynch Fifth an hour before, but it may just be him being a newer player. I'm willing to wait for a counterclaim and keep some suspicions up. Burnt Spaghetti Hasn't said much, and mentioned looking into Drake's suspicions on Walin. I think that's a good point, since Drake was a Villager and had some good arguments. Stated that she would be active in PMs, not in the thread, which is reasonable. Mostly a Village read. Elbereth Apparently Max, and apparently inactive. Has been saved once with a Miracle Pill, and no other Pills have been administered. I doubt that she's coming online to create a Pill and send it to someone, and not post. No reason to lynch her, but she might end up being replaced soon enough, which could make things interesting. Did I miss anyone? @Walin @manukos @Elbereth, you may come up for lynch today. If death scares you, then might I offer you my patented Moracle Pill? It's at most 60% as effective as a Miracle Pill, and you can certainly guarantee that it will be looted from your cold body administered without charge! Moracle Pills, buy them today!

In light of the past events, and the fact that we're entering endgame with only a few active players and at least two Elims, I think that it's worth acting on less solid suspicions to gain different information. For me, that would be Snipexe. Their behaviour has struck me as a bit odd, having suddenly tunneled on Sart way back in this post, and then dropping the issue entirely (more thoughts in this post of mine). Elandera offered a response to my suspicions, and while they make sense, I'm still not entirely convinced and I'm sort of grasping at straws here. Another reason to see how Snipexe flips is to learn more about Sart. It's not much, but it'll give us some information about whether that tunnel was a distancing attempt, or trying to start a lynch on a Villager. The reason why Snipexe is a more preferable target is because he's less active, and as Elandera says: Sart is a more active player, and that makes him inherently more valuable, because if he's a Villager, then losing him costs one of our more experienced and active players. While if he's an Elim he is a greater threat because of his activity, the fact that he has more posts means that it's harder for him to maintain his cover, and if he slips up we'll have more information. If a less-active player does something suspicious, it can be chalked up to a simple NAI mistake, since we lack a decent dataset to analyse. For that reason, I'd like to hold off lynching Sart just yet. I'm still willing to listen to Fifth's arguments, and he mentioned that he was going inactive, so if I find myself swayed I'll take up the torch and pitchfork in his stead. My thoughts on the active players at the moment: Fifth Scholar A little bit crazed with his theory, but he seems mostly genuine. From his tone and voting record he seems to be quite Village, although he's got a lot riding on his suspicions of Sart. If Sart flips Village due to a lynch headed by Fifth, it's not going to look good for Fifth. It's not inconceivable that he's the last active Elim, gone mad with boredom and is trying some audacious crackpot theory to see if it works. Honestly, it's got me hooked as well. @Fifth Scholar in your post here you talk about Rath's vote on DoS. Do you think that Rathmaskal would act so openly to save a teammate who was pretty obviously going to be lynched the next Cycle anyway? Elandera Also seems mostly Village. Their tone is mostly neutral, and the analysis has seemed pretty good. Not much to say just yet, but I'm reading Village, and they seem to be attempting to revive the thread, which is another point in their favour. I'm a bit suspicious because of the poke vote that turned into the almost unanimous bandwagon against Doc12, but I don't think that it's really reasonable that Elandera could have predicted the rush that happened. I think that everyone was just looking for someone to vote on once all of their suspicions had been exhausted. @Elandera have you had time to review Sart yet? What are your thoughts? Sart I originally thought he was an Elim, then I decided that the amount of bussing that he would have had to be doing made that ridiculous, but Fifth's theory is sort of countering that now. Probably the strongest Elim-read out of all of the actives, but that's not saying much, since everyone appears to be Village to me. The active Elims alive right now are probably either the best, or the luckiest of the team, so I think that this is the time when crackpot theories might start becoming relevant, which is why I'm leaning towards supporting Fifth's theory on Sart. @Sart Fifth stated that Rand was emphasising that you were cleared. Have you noticed anyone else trying to pocket you or similar? Dalinar Kholin Seems mostly cleared, and has some good analysis. Very good voting record. His support of Sart has me thinking, though, because it could mean a few things: if Dalinar is Village (likely) and Sart is Village (less likely), then Fifth's read swings closer to Elim. If we find out that Sart is Village, however, then I'll have to consider how Dalinar knew that Sart was worth supporting. How much that support was worth is something I'm going to have to look into. @Dalinar Kholin you were quiet in D7, what are your thoughts at the moment? Rathmaskal Mostly a neutral read. Fifth's analysis is not necessarily damning, but it's something. Rath has admitted to trying to avoid bandwagons, which is strange. I'm going to have to look more into him to solidify my theories. He's been neutral for almost the entire game for me, which means that I'll have to change that. @Rathmaskal why did you say you wanted to avoid bandwagoning here?

Wow, I feel stupid... I've been sick for the past few days, and I thought that I had another 24 hours until rollover. Sorry about the inactivity. I'll be putting in far more effort now that I'm feeling better and don't have exams for a week. I'm not hugely opposed to the Jondesu lynch. As his lifeblood lazily flows from his veins, clotting and coagulating as it touches a cold stone floor spattered with gore and fluids, I find myself conflicted. I didn't like how he defended Rand, and it's not inconceivable that Rand was attempting to distance him towards the end. Even as we slashed and chopped at Rand, even as blood flew and quivering meaty bits flopped to the floor, Rand decried Jondesu with collapsing lungs, perhaps as a dying ploy to save a teammate. The thing that I'm not so keen on is that the lynch doesn't tell us much about other players. While another corpse tossed into the festering pit with the others is a chance to learn whether we flayed a Guard's life from his body, we learn little more about those around us whose hands are stained with the still-warm blood of Jondesu. I'm coming around to Fifth's idea that Sart might actually be evil. The idea of callously slaughtering half of the Elim team, painting the walls a striking crimson with the blood of the very Guards that swore to protect you all to infiltrate a single player, is so audacious that it might just be plausible. However, Dalinar seems to be on Sart's side, and he's generally considered by all to be an upstanding Villager. That's either a point in Sart's favour, or a sign that he's managed to fool a Villager. Worth considering, I think.

I'm not sure that I agree with you about Jon. Rand could have been trying to distance Jondesu in order to compensate for the soft defences that Jon made here and here. It could have been a dying action to right a teammate's mistakes, or perhaps as it looks like you're implying, a dying attempt to bring a Villager down with him. I think that the possibility of the former is good enough reason to consider looking at Jondesu, and dismissing anyone due to their disagreements with known Elims is dangerous. In this game, we cannot know whom to trust until they are dead. I will admit that the speed with which Elandera was able to create a decisive lynch was surprising. The theory there is that Elandera's team quickly brought them up to speed on the state of the game. But I'm not sure that really stands up well against the rest of the situation. Elandera was mostly poke voting (and confirmed it here), and the fact that so many people accepted those mostly-poking reasons as justification for a decisive lynch means that someone is probably attempting to pocket Elandera, or at least in that case was eager for a lynch against a Villager after losing two Elims so quickly. The fact that Elandera is a pinch-hitter gives them an interesting position: not familiar enough with the flow of the game that players might be able to pocket more easily, but free of a lot of the biases and issues that we've accumulated having been in the thick of things. However, as an Elim, they're a good person to broach mislynches with because they're effectively a fresh player with no suspicions attached. But I believe that Elandera's role in starting the Doc12 bandwagon is pretty NAI. Expecting a significant number of other players to jump on a poke vote is a pretty far stretch. The fact that it brought a lot of suspicions out of the woodwork is interesting, though. Didn't you hear, the fashion isn't about drama anymore . But in all seriousness, I'm curious to see where this goes. I haven't really seen Rathmaskal as anything but neutral. Apologies for not participating in the daily fashion just yet. My bloodthirst takes a little while to crawl out of its hellish kennel in my soul.

Hello, sorry that I've been quiet this turn. I've been sick and have an exam today, so I'll be quiet for the next few hours. Making big posts like I've been doing takes a lot of time and energy that I don't really have. Going into the next Day I'll be willing to listen to arguments against Sart, but currently I'll be looking most closely at Jondesu.

Unfortunately, I'm getting sick and have an exam tomorrow (woohoo), so I can't really give as much of an analysis for today's lynch. I'm interested in seeing how Sart flips, and Fifth's theory is interesting enough that I'm tempted to see how it goes just out of sheer curiosity, but I've already convinced myself that Sart is clean. The chance that he's an Elim and has survived several lynches that have killed other Elims is just ridiculous (even though that makes Fifth's theory more enticing ). I'm unsure about Jondesu, but I don't yet have enough on him. If I did a post on him I'd probably be able to decide one way or another, but I don't have the time or energy. For the reasons I've got here, even though they aren't particularly conclusive, I'll put my vote on Doc12. I agree with everyone else's reasons, particularly Rath's, and Sart pointing out that we'll learn more about Rath depending on how Doc flips. Voting on Jon would be a wasted vote because everyone seems dedicated to Doc, and even if he got lynched it wouldn't reveal much about other players.

This bandwagon is fitting with the daily fashion, since it is indeed a rather dramatic turn of events. Why must we do this? Why must we turn upon each other like starving rats in a cage! Surely if we reason with the Prince, he will come out of hiding and we can have peace! Not one drop of blood need be spilled, not one more person, pirate or guard or eel or zombie, need fall if we speak with reason and kindness! This war can be avoided not through more slaughter, but through intellect and compassion! ...Except that would be boring. And it's not really the point of the game. So let's keep on killing each other! I'd like some reasons for those reads as well @Jondesu. Those are four players that you don't like, but no reasons for why. I'd like to hear your thoughts behind this, because otherwise it just looks like distancing or sowing discord. As for the read on himself, I'm certain that it's a joke. I remember reading a previous game and seeing Droughtbringer (I think?) do the same thing. It doesn't invalidate the rest of the reads, though. I agree about Sart, and Fifth is pretty much cleared due to his tunneling on Rand. I wondered originally if Sart was Prince Humperdinck, which would have made him more valuable than a regular Elim which is why he survived so many close calls, but I'm now pretty much convinced that he's clean. Humperdinck's tracking is barely relevant now that the power roles are gone and our Max is inactive, so it doesn't make sense to keep him around and I can't think of any other good reasons for Sart to be an Elim. What do you think about Snipexe's sudden, random tunnel on Sart? Here, on his second post of the game, he goes after Sart without stating his intentions earlier at all. When I prompted him he claimed IRL, but it's still a little strange that he went after Sart and then did a complete 180. Also notable that he went after Fifth an hour earlier here, but we were working at a lower information level there. Hey, I was voting on Sart back then, but even then, I'm not going to trust Snipexe solely because he voted on the same person that I did. I disagree with the last part, because Humperdinck's track is only useful now for watching Miracle Pills and PMs (are PMs a targeting action?), when its purpose was probably to hunt down the Man in Black or Buttercup. Those two were nullified in C1, so Humperdinck is only marginally more valuable than any other Elim. The Count is actually a weaker Elim than all of the others, because his special ability is being able to be revealed by the Spaniard. So Elim!Straw doesn't make a great deal of sense by these reasons, but it's still worth keeping an eye on him. Make sure that you're both willing to reconsider your votes if Doc responds fittingly. Note that Elandera seems to be poke voting more than trying to lynch, and those reasons are based around that fact. If Elandera's reasons give you a different read, please state why. Regardless of my own thoughts on Doc12, I think that stating a few reasons is a good habit to maintain even if you agree entirely with someone's arguments. My opinions of Doc are mixed, but not especially good. His actions in the early game were decidedly neutral, and he offered analysis of a lot of different players but didn't seem to focus on anyone in particular even though a lot of other active players were establishing suspicion lists. His votes seem to have been grudging in the later cycles, and he still remains neutral because of it. It's possible that I'm reading too much into it, but that seems very similar to Rand's behaviour. Rand remained very detached and distanced from everyone until the heat came on him, when he started becoming a lot more active and acted upon his 'suspicions'. It's possible that there's an Elim strategy where you try and remain above the arguments so that you don't imply any alignment, but you also provide analysis and arguments to make yourself seem useful enough to keep around. It would play off the bias that players are more likely to trust a useful person, or at least be reluctant to lynch them because of their helpful analysis. I found myself being affected by that when Drake was around, because I was suspicious of Eternum, and Drake would have inherited his alignment. I found Drake's discussion to be very helpful, and it made me almost forget that I'd even suspected the player who had come before him. As it turns out, he was probably clean all along given last night's kill, but that's proof that a helpful player can avoid votes. However, the counterargument is that the very strategy that I'm describing is also used by Villagers to avoid being lynched, but continue to help their team. So we have two teams who have the same behaviour. It would also protect them from Elims who won't think it worth killing them when they can eliminate the larger threats who are throwing votes at their team. Perhaps Doc is trying this, and that thought leads to IKYK. But I shall brave the madness that is IKYK and try and decode it. No promises if I turn up anything useful. I have a theory that the probability that a given level of IKYK is correct scales approximately logarithmically. For example if Village!Alice believes that Elim!Bob's actions are AI, that's level 1. At level 2, Bob knows that Alice would have believed his actions to be AI, and so he's accounted for that. As you increase the levels, the probability that a given level is the one that has actually happened initially increases very quickly. However, once you get to, for example, level 7, where Bob knew that Alice would guess that Bob expected Alice to know that... (and so on, ad nauseum), the chance that Bob thought one level higher than that isn't that much greater than the chance that he thought to level 7. Frankly, people are lazy (or should I say, 'time-efficient'), and by the time that Bob's gone that far into planning, the amount of people who will analyse him and go beyond the levels that he's thought to would probably not be worth planning against. I would say that the highest probability of correctness is around level 3-4. A more helpful way to look at it would be to consider how much effort that player would put into this facade. Doc12 hasn't made that many posts, but the initial ones that he did have been quite detailed. That means that they have a higher chance to be tailored and reviewed before posting. I also believe that Doc is a thoughtful player, given by general tone readings and his desire for everyone to keep thinking even while he's up for lynch. That means that he's more likely to have gone for a thoughtful strategy, like the one that I've described. If his strengths are in neutral analysis, he might occupy that space regardless of what side he's on. Can some other players confirm whether this is typical Doc behaviour? I remember Elbereth telling me that it's a known strategy to act neutral, but I'm not sure if this is Doc specifically or just regular neutrality. I believe that since Doc has probably put a lot of effort into the posts that he's made, and that there are less of them, the levels of this hypothetical IKYK situation are quite high. Does that give me an alignment read? No, not at all. Hooray, I managed to write a few paragraphs of useless analysis! I didn't promise anything conclusive, mind you. But it does tell me that if Doc is playing neutral, it means that he's probably got some good reason to be there. This, and the fact that he's remained neutral (I say this because he wasn't especially prepared to take a side on the Straw/Rand lynch), doesn't speak all that well for him. I would expect a neutral player to remain neutral while they would be most threatened by early lynches, and then come in with the suspicions that they'd gathered over the previous Cycles and pick a side. Doc hasn't really done this, because he still seems to be sitting on the fence. But because of his illness likely delaying his picking of sides, I'm willing to stay my vote until I can see more of him. I don't think that there's enough information here just yet.

A traitor in the ranks! A foul abomination, an insulting excuse of a human being, was infiltrated the entire time! I spit upon his—no, upon its corpse. I spit upon all of us, for allowing it to remain among us, poisoning our hearts, minds, and souls with its horrific and twisted ways! I spit upon myself, for once considering to call it an ally! And yet, the infection is still among us, my companions. There remain some vestiges of the canker in our midst, and I call upon our combined wills to combat it! With honesty, justice, and cunning, we may yet cleanse this place of the foul Prince and his scum. In all seriousness, nice! Pity about Drake, partially because he seemed entertaining, but also because he seemed pretty engaged in the game and had some rather useful analysis. Also, that vote counter would be a handy tool to have.

Would you care to explain, expound, or elaborate? Given the nature of your vote, I am confused, bamboozled, and baffled by the suddenness of this.

---------------------------RP--------------------------- As night fell upon the castle, the remaining pirates hid themselves away in one of the abandoned rooms and began to bicker about what was happening. The mood was not good. There were traitors in the crew, they whispered to each other. They feared the glances of their comrades, and hated the whispers. But even so, they themselves whispered among those they considered allies, and cast disparaging glances across the wide stone room. The few remaining parrots whisked across the room, bearing messages that would be furtively read, and then destroyed in a campfire. It was cold in the castle. The pirates had ripped down the few tapestries in this room and huddled underneath them, and broken apart the sparse furniture to start fires. These fires were beacons in the dim stone room, bastions against the cold and the fear. It was around these sickly little blazes that pirates guarded their remaining firewood and the food that they'd stolen from the kitchens, and it was in these circles that they began to feel fear. The plan had been so good, they told themselves. Storm the castle and capture the princess. Yes, they were outnumbered by the entire garrison, but they were the most feared pirate crew on the high seas. They were led by the greatest swordsman any of them had known, joined by a colossus of towering size and strength, and a whip-thin Spaniard whose blade almost matched that of the Dread Pirate Roberts. And when they fell, they had the one known as the Miracle to return them from death. But now the Spaniard was dead, poisoned by iocaine in a misunderstanding. The princess Buttercup had been stabbed to death over a barrel of beer and the Dread Pirate refused to fight. And Miracle Max, who was actually a strange little girl named Elenta, had fallen asleep and refused to heal anyone. And it was now, in the darkness of a strange castle, far from the waves and the freedom of the salty sea breeze, that they were dying. They were snatched in the shadows and dragged off to horrible demises. And when the daylight filtered through the arrow slits that were seeming more and more like the windows of a prison, pirate turned against pirate and threw accusations and suspicions. These turned into scuffles and fights, and every day a pirate lay dead upon the floor. Indeed, this was a dark room in which the remaining crew shuffled and sneezed from the dusty tapestries that they wrapped around themselves in order to preserve precious body heat. There was the first darkness, a cold and merciless thing, which lurked just outside the range of their pathetic fires. There was the second darkness, a gloom that had settled over the spirits of the pirates, the nihilism and helplessness of men waiting to die. And finally, subtler but more dangerous, there was the third darkness. This was a hot darkness, malevolent and insidious, which flickered in the souls of the traitors in the crew. Even if the pirates could not see this darkness, they felt it. They believed that the eyes of Prince Humperdinck, his vile Count, and his guards were settled upon them, and they felt this black flame heating the napes of their necks. But when they turned to look, they met only the slack, weary faces of the other pirates. The Dead Private Hobbert had been waiting for this night. He did not feel the icy castle air on his skin, for the flesh of the grave is always cold. He did not fear the night, for the night is the time of the dead. When the sun fades and the inky blackness takes over, the living hide themselves indoors and tell each other stories of sunny fields. And slowly, as the night grows ever darker, the living begin to lose their strength and must go still for hours, slowing their bodies down. This time, when those alive become closest to death, is when the dead feel most alive. Hobbert dragged a corpse through the cold corridors. His mismatched feet plodded on the stone floor, and the corpse scraped along the cobbles behind him. He dragged it by a leg, and moved methodically. One foot in front of the other. Such a simple thing, locomotion. One foot in front of the other. Hobbert came to a round room in the castle. At one point, it might have been a council chamber, but no longer. Those present were cold and unmoving. Or, in Hobbert’s case, cold and moving. The Dead Private dragged the corpse into the room and dropped the leg he was holding. He looked down at the body, which stared back up at him. “Sorry about this,” he said to the corpse. “I know how relaxing it is to have a nice grave with some worms to keep you company, but you’re going to need to wait a bit.” Incan C. Vable stared up at Hobbert, eyes milky and pale in death. His mouth was open slightly, dried blood about it. That blood had been spilled by the Man in Black himself, in attempt to slay the Prince and his men. But Incan had been a pirate. Hobbert knew that he deserved better, but he also knew that he needed answers. The walking corpse looked away from the unmoving corpse, and glanced over the rest of the bodies in the room. The mouse where Hobbert’s right ring finger once was squeaked out a quick tally, and Hobbert nodded. “One more, then.” The Dead Private shuffle-marched out of the room and headed back through the corridors. He ducked into an alcove as light flooded the corridor ahead of him, and remained as still as only the dead can as two guards walked past him, carrying a flickering torch. Once they were past, Hobbert continued walking. He made it to the heavy oak door in a quiet part of the castle, and pushed it open. Hinges squeaked. A sword appeared in his face. “Who goes there!” a voice snapped. Hobbert rolled his eyes. Only one of them rolled, though. “It’s me,” he said to the pirate who was brandishing a cutlass in his face. The pirate peered at him. “Hobbert?” he asked. “No, it’s the other walking corpse on the crew,” the Dead Private said. Unfortunately, the tonal range of the dead is laughably nonexistent, and so sarcasm was beyond a corpse to convey. The pirate narrowed his eyes under the fake eyepatch that he wore. “Where have you been?” the pirate demanded. “Out,” Hobbert said. “Walking. It feels like a funeral in here.” “Huh,” the pirate said. “Wouldn’t you kind of like that th—” “Oh, so just because I’m dead, I must like funerals?” Hobbert said, his tone becoming grating. “Way to stereotype. Oh, yeah, I also must love the taste of formaldehyde. All dead people like all things to do with death, is that what you’re saying?” “Sorry,” the pirate said, stepping back sheepishly. “Blasted mortists,” Hobbert muttered and stumbling his way into the room. A few pirate glanced up. Their eyes looked as grim and cornered as before. From the walls, paintings of kings long dead stared down and judged them impassively. Hobbert didn’t bother talking to them. He made his way across the room to a darkened part of the room, where two limp bodies lay. The latest crop, it seemed. Hobbert poked the corpse of Grumbleton. “Still a bit fresh,” he muttered. “Maybe Elenta will bring you back, you selfish drunk.” He looked at the other one. The original Dread Pirate, who went by the ridiculous name of Cummerbund. But Hobbert wasn’t about to judge anyone for names. The body looked cold and as dead as dead could be. Hobbert picked up a leg of Cummerbund and began dragging him across the room. Most of the pirates ignored him, but one noticed. “Hey!” the man called. “Where are you taking him?” Hobbert didn’t look up. “It,” he said. “What?” “Where are you taking it. Corpses don’t get genders.” “Where are you taking it, then?” “Somewhere else.” The pirate shrugged off his tapestry and rose to his feet. “Have you taken all of the other corpses?” he asked. “Yes,” Hobbert said in his wet, grinding voice. The pirate reached for his cutlass. “Dragging them off to eat them, are you?” Hobbert chuckled, and several pirates shivered at the sound. Others were glancing up at the commotion, but most hadn’t moved. “What is it with you living people and your obsession with eating?” he asked. “Just because you do it, suddenly everyone has to. What makes you think that I’ve got any sort of working digestive system?” The pirate shifted from one foot to the other. “Everyone says that the undead consume the flesh of the living,” he said. “Some do,” Hobbert admitted. “Those are the stupid ones that don’t believe that they’re dead. Their stomachs get full of meat that doesn’t digest, and then they spend the next hundred years walking around far heavier than they need to be.” “So you do eat them!” “No. The stupid ones eat.” “So are you eating them?” Hobbert rolled the eye that was still moving, and kept walking. The pirate made as if to stop him, but dodged out of the way as the shambling corpse came close to him. The pirate was brave, but wise enough to not touch Hobbert. “Put the body down!” the man said, and more pirates glanced up from their campfires. Hobbert ignored him, and kept heading for the door. The pirate danced around to Hobbert’s front and sliced at him with the cutlass. A cut appeared in Hobbert’s face, and a piece of flesh peeled away from the skull with a wet slurping noise. A wet sigh rattle the inside of Hobbert’s mostly-working lungs. He pulled out a tube of glue, smeared it on the inside of the piece of flesh, and slapped it back into place. The pirate, who until now was staring in horror, turned and vomited all over the floor. Hobbert shoved past him and out the door, dragging the corpse of Cummberbund with him. He had a lot to do tonight. Back in the round room with the other corpses, Hobbert deposited Cummerbund’s remains on the floor and eyed the arrangement. Nine bodies in a circle. Nine sacrifices. An auspicious number, perfect for summoning Nordic deities. But Hobbert didn’t fancy a chat with Odin. He’d never liked ravens, and apparently Odin kept a couple around. He needed one more body. Hobbert dragged the corpse of Buttercup a little to the left. Then the Spaniard a little back from the centre. He held up his right hand to his face. “Time for you to get out of here,” he said to the mouse affixed to his ring finger. The mouse squeaked. “This isn’t your place,” the Dead Private said. “It’s too dangerous, besides.” The mouse squeaked again. “No!” Hobbert said. “You go and find a nice barn with not too many owls and cats, and you have a family. I’m not letting you face what I have to.” The mouse bit him. Hobbert sighed. “Fine. You can watch, but after I’m done we’re going to have a talk.” He unfastened the mouse, which scurried across the floor and into a little gap between two stones in the wall. Then Hobbert looked once more at the circle of corpses, walked around to the empty space, and lay down in it. The ten dead. Ten cold and rotting, death deep in their bones. Grumbleton was freshly dead, and life still crawled in his fading body heat. He wasn’t fit for this. From where he lay in the circle of the dead, Hobbert began to chant. “Ten who lie, ten who sleep, ten who never wake,” he intoned. “We who lie, we who sleep, we who never wake.” His words echoed in the cold stone chamber. “Death stalks these halls, death stalks these fields, death stalks these lands.” The shadows grew a little darker. “One who calls, one who ferries, one who ushers in the night.” “Eighteenth of five, the darkness between stars, the silence between heartbeats.” “I call to thee, I whisper in your ear, I reach out to the endless dark.” Thrice I name thee! Three times I call to thee! Thrice I ask for thy—” Hobbert paused. He could never remember the last one. The darkness began to boil and froth, and he felt a heavy blanket of shadow settle over the castle. How did the chant go again? The mouse squeaked from its hiding place. “Presence!” Hobbert shouted, and the darkness swirled back into order. “Thanatos!” Hobbert called, his words echoing far more than they should have. “Azrael! Kali! Thrice I name thee!” The darkness fell still, like a roiling hurricane suddenly becoming a quiet pond. Hobbert had no breath to hold, but he still found himself compelled to do so. A man stood in the circle of corpses. He did not appear there. It was simply that he always had been there, but only now did one notice him. He was young and pale with artfully messy black hair and wore a slim business suit, all in lustreless blacks that were no lighter nor darker than each other, but all seemed distinct and complementary. He cast his gaze around the chamber, as if expecting someone. “Er,” he said, the normalcy of his voice more surprising than if it had rumbled with the power of an earthquake. “Is anyone there?” Hobbert rose silently behind the young man from his place in the circle of corpses. “Yes,” he said in a grinding tone. The young man turned, and Hobbert punched Death in the face. ---------------------------RP--------------------------- Well, that was fun to write! I haven't done much RP lately, so I'm catching up. The second instalment of Hobbert's nighttime adventure will come in a bit. Not much to say just yet on the lynch. I stand by my vote, and also believe that Rand was the most valuable to get rid of, because how he flips could tell us a lot. Pinch-hitters and inactives, come on in! Offer discussion or reactions! What are your thoughts so far? How do you think Rand will flip?

@Val it stands for Wine In Front Of Me, after the famous scene in the Princess Bride. It's another term for IKYK, or I Know You Know, which is when you suspect a player's actions, but realise that they might have guessed that you would suspect that action and accounted for that, but then they might know that you would have realised that, and planned for it. But then they also might have known that you knew that they would have known that you would have suspected that. It's not a very helpful scenario to analyse, because you don't know what level they've thought to. That's why a lot of players will avoid trying to break down an IKYK, because it doesn't usually give a reliable answer.

Fifth made an interesting point about Bort defending Rand here. Rand brought up a counterargument about pocketing, and Fifth dropped the matter. But I’m not so convinced, and so I started thinking about why Bort would pocket Rand. While I’m sure that it’s reasonable for Elims to attempt to pocket Villagers, I don’t think it’s quite so common that an Elim would try and attach themselves to a Villager that was already a sinking ship. Why not go for someone who’s far cleaner? The general theory is that the Elim borrows some of the Villager’s honesty, and so if the Elim gets suspected, people will associate them with the Villager who, hopefully for the Elim, looks a lot more honest. Because of that, it’s most probable that your Elims pocket your most honest Villagers, or perhaps the ones that they deem to be less observant and more trusting of people that take their side. It makes no sense that Bort would try to pocket the most suspected player currently active. Rand avoided one lynch by the chance of iocaine, and now got away from another due to Sart preferring to vote on Bort than him. That doesn’t seem like a safe pocket to me. It’s inconceivable that Bort would have thought that pocketing a Villager a short step from the lynch was a good idea. It would have been far easier to capitalise on the Village’s existing suspicions and push Rand over the edge the next cycle, and then pocket someone more trustworthy. Given the way that the votes are turning out, one person can make a lot of difference. Pocketing is probably out of the picture in this case. Because of that, I’m going to vote randuir for now. It’s possible that Bort made a mistake and I’m reading into it too much, or maybe I missed something that proves how this isn’t as uncommon as I thought. If someone could help clear that up, then it would be great. I don’t have enough to convince me that Straw is worth lynching. He hasn’t been defended enough that seeing him flip would reveal the alignments of many others. Sart’s post here is the only solid argument against him that I can find, and while I agree that Elenion defending him back when neither of them was suspected is a bit strange, it’s not enough to sway me just yet. I agree that the voting pattern is pretty bad. Now that he’s been pointed out, the thing that gets me about Straw is the quietness. He’s not completely inactive, as evidenced by the posts, but those posts aren’t much. I had suspicions of Rand because he wasn’t defending himself as much as I’d like, and I’m wondering if the same thing is happening to Straw. Why not defend yourself? Why not respond to the questions? The answers aren't good. He's just posted as I'm writing this, so maybe this will clear things up. The only reasons why I’m not voting on him just yet is because I haven’t digested the idea long enough to vote with confidence, and I also don’t think that he’s worth lynching solely to see how he flips, because no one’s really defended or targeted him recently. Perhaps clearing Sart would be useful, so my vote has potential to change. Although, forewarning, the coming turnover might not be the best time for me. I'll be able to change my vote and provide some discussion, but a big analysis will be more difficult. I'll try my best.

As suspicious, malignant, and malevolent as I'm sure this makes me look, I must point out that Snipexe rescinded, cancelled, and revoked his vote upon me, myself, and I. For your review, purveyance, and consideration, that post can be found here, in this location, and at the place where this link leads. I suppose, ruminate, and arrive at the conclusion that the irony is not lost on you that today's fashion (in which you have taken a great role in participating with your effort) is counterproductive to, in direct violation of, and opposes the spirit of conciseness.

Yeah, I suppose that's true. Sart's seemingly accidental lynching has gone from Elim-weird to just weird-weird. And from a logical standpoint, Sart's been under enough heat that if he was an Elim, they'd probably just get rid of him and let the other member fade into the shadows under the aegis of killing an Elim. I suppose I was tunneling a bit, so I'll ease off now. I imagine that my suspicions were based on the fact that I saw something strange and decided that it must be something indicative. I'll need to keep reminding myself that coincidence doesn't take a holiday just because there's conspiracy about. I'll probably take a look at Drake next, because I wasn't too keen on Eternum and I'd like to see what his replacement is like.

I see, now I am aware, and it at last makes sense. I completely misunderstood, misled myself, and proved myself to be a buffoon of the highest order. You used the word "game" in a different context and I thought that you were talking about LG46, when really you were talking about "voting games". I meant it not as an accusation, nor to point fingers, and neither still to cast suspicion upon you. I wanted to understand the typical shape of mid-to-late game, and how things changed as more information came to light, and I didn't understand why you said what you did. Thank you, you have my gratitude, and I salute you in respect for revealing your reasons. As you can tell, I'm trying to learn this game at the same time as play it, and so it leads to lots of questions and queries. I do not wish to reconsider that statement, and neither shall I revoke or rescind it, as it referred more to providing analysis and contributing to the discussion. That makes sense. So in the early game, poke voting and more-or-less random votes is normal, but in late game, unfounded votes become more AI. Yeah, I understand now. "Analysis" to me involves a decent amount of quoting and analysis of specific posts, but that's almost certainly me projecting how I try to analyse people. I find it a lot more difficult to determine motive from a player's general pattern of actions, and so I do a lot more low-level analysis of posts, which (as you can see) involves a lot of quoting. Seeing someone who doesn't do that is strange, alien, and bamboozling to me, but that does not invalidate the techniques of others. If I were to make that claim, I would be rude, unpleasant, and terribly uncivil.

@Burnt Spaghetti welcome! Come, join this motley assembly of pirates, eels, a zombie, a strange little girl, and a few other odd individuals as we figure out how most efficiently to kill each other. This is the best time to weigh in on suspicion. Lack of votes is becoming a real problem, as each vote has significantly more power, which allows people to swing the vote one way or another all on their own. That's exciting, sure, but it's sort of irritating when the outcome of the lynch can come down to a single person's decision a couple of minutes before the end of the Cycle. It makes all of the rest of the analysis feel a bit unnecessary. Add your voice to the mix. Even if your analysis isn't astounding, it's still worth something. Inactivity is a real problem at the moment, so more posts is good. I agree that it is rather strange to admit to not voting ahead of time, and attempting to play passive could be a preconstructed defence to keeping in the shadows and below the radar. But at the same time, there are a lot of inactive and barely-active people in this game. That doesn't make this reason against Walin nearly as damning, but I suppose that he's been one of the more active inactives, so he's straddling the fine line between actually inactive and passive. Why do you believe that this game in particular makes that behaviour AI? Why do you dislike voting on people that aren't suspected? As everyone was very quick to point out to me in the earlier Cycles, voting is extremely useful, and being stingy with votes isn't necessarily the best approach. Does that apply less when there is more information? Why? I would have thought that it would be very situational, because some players might need a poke now and again. But I suppose it makes some sense that poking becomes less relevant as we learn more about each other. If you could explain in more detail why you say that, it would be great. Could you go into more depth with your suspicions of those two? I don't have all that much on Fifth, where I think that there's enough on Rand to keep me busy and reading for a while now. But hearing your thoughts on both of them would be good. Ouch, that must have been unpleasant. Would you expect new Elims to check in and start posting very quickly, because they have more information to go on and a team to bring them up to speed? You propose that theory with Doc12 later on in this post, and I wonder if that would also apply to new Elims. (Regarding my vote on Snipexe) Reasonable. I've used dataset size to justify my own votes. I would definitely like to see you add your voice to the analyses going on. Consider Snipexe un-poked. That's a fair reason, but I disagree with parts of it. The timeline doesn't really work out. If I wanted to save Bort, I could have voted on Fifth, who was already at 2 votes at the time. Sart was on 0. I suppose it's reasonable to expect you to join the vote, but since you weren't especially active it seems like a bit of a stretch to be counting on you. Not to mention that it would be one vote and one maybe-vote against whatever Bort was accumulating. I don't expect you to believe me, but the thought had not occurred that anyone would join me in voting against Sart. As for my late vote...yeah, that's entirely my fault. I stayed up too late, slept in, and left myself with an hour until turnover to provide any sort of coherent reasons to vote. I'm going to try and get a better schedule so that I have a few more hours at the end of the Cycle. Time zones mean that the most exciting discussion always happens when I'm asleep, so I really need that time to catch myself up.

I'm still unconvinced and disbelieving that Sart's vote on both of the Elims so far proves that he's clean. In both cases, he's acted entirely and completely in self-defence, and little else but to save his own skin. Yes, his actions caused two Elims to die, but it was neither a conscious, reasoned, or premeditated action. It was a last-ditch attempt to save and protect himself. In neither Len nor Bort's lynch votes did Sart seem to have any particular suspicions or misgivings of the people he voted on. If it was a 3-way tie and both times he voted on the Elims, the Prince's Guards, the traitors among us, I would say that is strongly Villager-indicative and very lucky. However, the way that it's turned out, it's just lucky and a convenient twist granted to him by fate. The saving grace, the redeeming factor by which Sart has any claim to validity is that Bort was looking a lot more innocent than Sart was when the vote rolled around, at least in my opinion, by my analysis, and to my intuition. I hadn't really been aware of Bort, I had barely noticed him, and I certainly didn't suspect him. If the Elims were deciding on whom to sacrifice and throw under the bus, Sart would probably have been a better choice because that was the second time he's been a single vote from (mostly) death. So, the update on Sart puts him more neutral than before. More neutral, but also lucky (and fortuitous, favoured by fate, chosen of Lady Luck, and many more synonyms and similar words). My vote, the power granted to me by this democratic system, the representation of my voice as a member of these proceedings, will be on Snipexe. I don't especially suspect, hold a grudge, or believe there to be much evil intent in his actions, but I believe that there is a great lack and dearth of activity from him, a void in which content should fill, and I request an explanation for why he is focusing on Sart so much, having posted very little in the preceding cycles. Wow (gadzooks, gosh, golly, by the gods), that was a lot of synonyms. I hope that it didn't muddy what I was trying to say too much.

Sart's reasoning in that vote seemed weird to me. Even though Elenion turned out Elim, something about Sart’s post here seemed really strange. He claimed that defending Araris was apparently Village-indicative without actually saying why. I disagree with that statement, not because Araris turned out Villager, but because it wasn’t particularly AI at all. Araris’s arguments were non-existent, but by Sart’s logic, it is Village-like to defend him. The only way that I can think of defending Araris to be anything more than a player neutrally taking a side on an argument is the fact that Araris was Buttercup. But Elenion didn’t know that, and so I don’t see any way that Sart could think that Elenion defending Araris was Village-indicative. I suppose that Sart could have gotten the same read on Araris that Elenion did, but I find that implausible because I don’t think that Araris showed any sort of indications, and Elenion was more likely to be attempting an early pocket.. This isn’t really an indicative argument, it just doesn’t make sense. Sart has also made it clear that he doesn’t like iocaine situations, as he’s voted several times now to ensure that there’s always a decisive lynch, claiming avoiding vote manipulation. I believe that it’s more beneficial for Elims to have decisive votes than Villagers, because of the risk factor in an iocaine situation. If we look at it mathematically, the calculation of risk is Risk = Probability x Loss. In an iocaine situation, the probability can be assumed at 50% to kill either person. The loss for either side is one of your players out of all of your players. Let’s assume full rosters of players. Elims: 0.5 * 1/5 = 0.1 Village: 0.5 * 1/22 = 0.023 As you can see, the risk factor for the Village is significantly lower. Every time an iocaine situation appears because of an indecisive vote, the Elims face a risk factor ~4x what the Village does if they have a member in it. Even without a calculation, you can see the logic. And I imagine that elim!Sart or his team would be able to see it after analysing the mechanics of this game. Sart has expressed his desire to avoid iocaine, and by my calculations that is behaviour that would be shared with Elims. (Wow, being able to say “by my calculations” is really satisfying) As such, anyone who attempts to dodge an iocaine situation gets a black mark from me. I can’t think of a reason why the Village does not benefit more from iocaine than the Elims, due to an advantage of numbers and therefore a lower risk factor. To that end, anyone who consistently tries to get decisive votes becomes very suspicious to me. Yes, the Elims might be able to swing things with vote manipulation, but it would be an immediate red flag if a suspicious player suddenly got saved by it. However, the case where Sart voted on Elenion muddied that logic a bit, because if Sart and Len were evil, then attempting to get a decisive vote on your teammate…is strange. Or, at least, it’s strange until you look at the rest of the votes for that Cycle. The other person in danger of the lynch was Sart, and he claims that he voted for self-preservation. So, if Sart and Elenion are both Elims, why would Sart off his teammate? The potential reasons I can think of are: Sart is more experienced, at least in terms of raw game numbers. According to the spreadsheet, he’s at 50 to Elenion’s 27. No idea if this is at all relevant, though. Elenion was under a lot more pressure. Sart was under scrutiny for voting on Roadwalker, but the case against him seems flimsy now that I read it. Straw as revenge vote, Devotary based on the idea that Sart was attempting to get rid of Max with the night kill as a contingency. If Sart got sacrificed, Elenion might have just been lynched the next Cycle, and you lose two Elims instead of one. Sart is Prince Humperdinck, and his tracking was more valuable than Elenion, who was just a regular Elim with a Parrot. That’s all I can really come up with. Note that these don’t prove that Sart is an Elim, but they do give possibilities for why his vote on Elenion was not Village-indicative. I think that it was neutral-indicative self-preservation at best. The rest of Sart’s discussion of Elenion could be a sort of soft-distancing, but I don’t think that there’s anything decisive to say about it. I don’t agree with Sart that Max is more of a help to the Elims than the Village. When Max resurrects a player hit by the Elims, that player becomes all but cleared as Village. That’s a massive boon to the Village, and yet Sart is trying to get rid of it immediately. That was the vote tally 21 hours ago. Notice the people who had placed votes? For one, there's only three of them. Even worse, look at the people who were nearly killed. It's the same people. Instead of promoting healthy voting behavior, we're attacking it. Do we have the memories of goldfish? Instead of going based off of retaliation, let's actually look at the thread. I'm going to look at Elenion's posts again, and come back once I have some better reads. This post looks a bit like indignance in an attempt to prove innocence. It almost seems too cliché to be AI, but I’ll go through it anyway. His Eliminator kill was the final vote in a situation that would either kill him or an Elim. He’s already stated that self-preservation is a perfectly good excuse for voting on someone even if you don’t suspect them, so his kill is by his own admission…well, sort of an accident. At best it’s a matter of coincidence and convenience. I don't agree with his assertion about attacking healthy voting behaviour. I don’t see why an early vote should be considered good enough to provide any protection from the lynch. As for whether it even was that, Fifth has been suspected for a while now, Sart was initially voted on because of my suspicions of him, and so the only one who got voted on for voting was Bort, as far as I can tell. On the whole, those three coming under fire isn’t punishing good voting behaviour. It’s barely even retaliation. I really don’t know what to think of this post. On one hand, it looks like textbook feigned indignance, especially given the rest of my suspicions of Sart. However, when Rand avoided lynch, his tone seemed a bit snarky and I defended that fact when it was brought up against him, so perhaps this is Sart’s reaction to a similar situation. Additionally, I don’t think that Sart is nearly sloppy enough to pretend to be indignant. I also spent a good part of last Cycle admonishing everyone for letting votes go by with virtually no discussion, so I can understand why Sart would want to admonish us for something similar. So… That’s a really long-winded answer to your question @randuir. Sart’s vote on Elenion changes my read in that it makes it more complex. I don’t like how he’s been acting, and there are good reasons for why elim!Sart would act that way. I would definitely like to see @Sart provide some reasons for the things that I’ve pointed out, specifically his dislike of iocaine situations and vote manipulation.

Well, I’ve so far been unable to come up with much new analysis. I don’t feel confident enough in my views on the current targets for lynch, so I’ll refrain from voting on them. In fact, I don’t have much in the way of confidence in my suspicions of anyone. I will be keeping an eye on Drake Marshall because he inherited Eternum’s position, and I’ve been suspicious of Eternum for a while now. However, it feels like a really nasty move to vote on someone solely on the actions and analysis of the player that they replaced, on the same turn that they appeared. Such a vote wouldn’t give Drake any chance to defend himself, as he doesn’t have any history to draw upon and can’t exactly explain what Eternum was thinking. I’ll keep an eye on Drake, because if Eternum was still around then my vote would still be on him. For lack of a better option, Sart. I don’t feel like the vote on Straw has any real bearing (which doesn't indicate much, but it's something), and I haven’t been especially impressed with his ability to defend himself against scrutiny in the last turn or so. As much as I like his arguments in favour of self-preservation, you don’t need to be an upstanding Villager in order to make good arguments. I don’t believe that his votes on Devotary and Rand were justified very well either, and I'm generally unsure of him due to other reasons. I’ve gone over that here, so I’ll refrain from repeating myself for everyone’s sake, and because it’s not long until turnover and I’ve left my vote to the last minute again. If anyone wants a bit more depth to my reasoning I can provide that during the Night. Turnover is generally at a decent enough time for me, but only if I get up earlier than I usually do. Which I didn’t.

I did say that I'd leave further posting until I'd actually gotten some sleep (1am here, and I was trying to fix a sleep schedule), but I'll leave another parting thought to fuel the discussion that will (hopefully) happen when I'm inactive. Rand's last post got me thinking, so here we go. I've stated before that I don't like how Rand is all but refusing to defend himself. I said here that his lack of counterarguments so far could have been him dodging the spotlight long enough for everyone to lose interest. At the time I thought that it was a stretch for someone to do that, but Rand's had plenty of time to provide something that addresses the original arguments against him and has given precious little. I'm rethinking whether or not it is such a stretch. This doesn't address the arguments that people made on the initial vote against you. I don't believe that your vote on Devotary was more telling than anything else, because it was self-preservation. This argument makes sense, but it doesn't change the fact that you seem to be ignoring the original suspicions against you, other than a scattered handful of sentences. I don't necessarily agree with all of the arguments that were made against you, but I do have my own suspicions, and this is now adding to them. Those arguments aren't so important to me, but the fact that you seem to have no response to them is very strange. If a player ignores the votes against them and instead tries to get on with the game, then it looks like passive misdirection. It also shows that they're not willing to give away anything of their thoughts in a situation where their thoughts are going to be the most subjected to analysis; not only are all eyes on them, but when under pressure, they're more liable to reveal alignment through slip-ups. If they act like the pressure isn't there and refuse to give us anything on the matter, then it makes me think that they have something to hide. This is the same sort of suspicion I had against Eternum for avoiding Elbereth's accusations. Fair enough, but you've had an entire Night and an almost an entire extended Day to read the thread to properly understand that case by now, and you've given us very little.

It may be worth noting Cadmium Compounder had a suspicion of Fifth Scholar for quite a while, as evidenced here, and he only rescinded that vote once Fifth provided some sort of response, and Elenion became the next-best target. CadCom then posted this last Cycle, which stated that his suspicions of Fifth were still there. He ostensibly voted on Rand only because he wanted a discussion, which proves that he believed Fifth was as much of an Elim as Rand was, but since the focus was on Rand, CadCom likely thought that he could get more discussion and alignment-reading out of people that way. CadCom has been killed by the Elims. He was the first player to bring up analysis of any significance against Fifth, and until now was one of the few to vote on him. Last Night's kill could have been an effective way of quietly removing the most vocal opposition of a teammate, with the Elims hoping that the focus on Rand was distracting everyone so that the kill looked more like a shot in the dark. I'm not sure if I have to go and get my aluminium-lined hat because of how conspiracy-theory that sounds, but I suppose that this game is literally about people conspiring against other people. That's not nearly enough in my books to justify a vote just yet. I'll be on a couple of hours before the end of the Day to give my arguments and vote. Question about game rules: when a new player replaces someone who dropped out, do they take on the role, alignment, and items of the person that they replaced? Because if that's the case, I may end up having to suspect Drake Marshall as much as I did Eternum.