Indigo Weasel

Why hello, fine animals *cough* humans of this fine council. I am—<Quagga!><shhhh!>—Quagmire, excuse my cough. Apologies for the delay. We— I had some technical difficulties—<stop moving, Paguma!>— in procuring this lovely wardrobe. Such a fine trenchcoat to fit such a lovely face.

But regardless, I will be reviewing what has been said, and I hope to be able to contribute my own thoughts once I catch up.

Thank goodness it's over. I need to read this thing to find out what the heck was going on. I am so confused. 

Toucan was an elim?
WHAT THE HECK?????????
I am shook. I thought for sure there was no way that was an elim ploy. 
I need to go rethink my life. 
Edit: you know, there was a point in this game where I thought I knew what was going on. And then I died, and then suddenly I had no idea what was going on. Sometimes I wonder what the point of all this is. 

Ah I was kinda hoping to come back and hope the game was over

Honestly I'm fine with either exe, coinshot can shoot whichever we don't exe tonight. 

2 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

This is the chance at a redemption arc, Trust PM Bro  

I guess I'll vote Ivory Dragonfly. Since I missed the first day of this turn, should get my vote in now in case I get sucked back into my series. After all I still have 9 volumes left lollll. 

Let's clutch this PM bro. Even if you lied to me. Thankfully I am a forgiving friend. 

Hi I'm sorry I disappeared I kind of spent the last 2 days rereading a series instead of doing... Literally anything else. 

Ok so PMs are closed, good thing I checked thread before I just started PMing people lol. 

I'm extremely surprised that the elim team isn't a team of 4. That's an extremely strong elim team. 

Well, regardless there's probably only one more eliminator left. There's 11 people, so that's 10 villagers to 1 elim. I'd say we have pretty good odds at this point. I'd be interested in pursuing ivory dragonfly or penguin, though I feel much less strongly about penguin after they actually answered my question. 

And I guess I'm morally obligated to trust you, Swan. sigh let's try not to screw this up. 

I kinda just want Lion dead. Lion

49 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Oh yeah that too

Opal Lion

Alright, you. You've been avoiding my posts all this time. All the way back on day 2 you read me as village. I am truly baffled by that, and it feels off. Would you please, please explain your thought process? Why the heck was I village read on day 2, when I'd done nothing helpful at all? You've also been avoiding my attempts to extract this info from you, although maybe that could be chalked up to IRL stuff. 

Boooo coral swan you lied to me

Ill change my vote later but I'm salty right now

3 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

[OOC: Ah. This is why I don’t like group PMs and trust groups. Always leads to a massive cremstorm when things come out in the thread eventually.

As someone completely uninvolved with all of that mess, I think I slightly believe Rhino more. But only just barely. If Swan is who I think they are, then this feels perfectly in character for them. Which means that I think this whole situation on Swan’s part is like…98% NAI. There’s obviously a little bit of AI stuff we might be able to glean, but the actual act of lying to everyone and obfuscating things isn’t suspicious coming from them. In my opinion.

I am also perfectly willing to believe that both Rhino and Swan are village and this is just a clusterstorm. We’ll see how things shake out in the next couple hours.]

I don't disagree with this at all. Half of the reason I was suspicious of Coral Swan being a WGG was because they were in the supposed trust group. Swan should know better glares. Regardless of whether they flip elim or not, we're going to be going into day six with enough information that at this point I've more or less given up doing specific post analysis. I don't imagine this game will go too much longer tbh. 

And I'm over here still wondering what happened to Chartreuse Penguin and their village read of me day 2 (which as I mentioned before I found very suspicious, like a low effort read). 
Ah, I really just want to have the night turn over. It's been so long since I've felt this excited! 

In PMs, I've been extremely conservative with certain information. Rhino presented such information to me to confirm that it was true, and the information is as such that I am almost certain they are village. They may not be scanned, but if they are an elim I will eat my hat. It just makes no sense given their aggressive playstyle and extensive information for the village for the village to not be singehandedly crippled. Essentially, if either they or I had been elim, Swan would not have been shot by the elims. Just a quick explanation so that nobody gets confused about their alignment. 

1 minute ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

i usually handle things opposite; innocent until proven guilty, don't want to overly paranoia on someone without good reasoning and shut them out of conversation, but also always maintain opsec just in case. i kinda draw the line at outright lying to players you know have been green checked tho

Yeah... Can't do that. Trust has stabbed me in the back too many times. I understand innocent before proven guilty, but I refuse to place absolute trust in anyone unless they earn it. And even then, I'm still careful. 

See? This is exactly why I'm so gosh darned paranoid, because players pull stuff like this. I just can't be paranoid enough 

*pulls out popcorn* well I guess there was one scenario I didn't take into account for a WGG

And that's using the village lurcher to accomplish your protection. But dang that's BALLSY. 

Just now, Opal Lion said:

[Doesn't Flam being Lurcher confirm that the elim team has two? Or a Mistborn I guess. That also means Coral Swan likely isn't cleared, though I still don't think it was a WGG, since I'd expect the other Lurcher to be protecting another teammate, or if they wanted to cause even more chaos, me.]

The mistborn is probably who protected Flamingo on the second kill, as I'm not sure if there's another way they could have survived. Them having 2 lurchers is extremely unlikely. Which means that according to the rules, the likelihood of them having the lurcher ability the next night is basically nonexistent. It's possible, but it's so unlikely that it's not worth it. Especially when I've been told that it's not a WGG in PMs, this just confirms it for me because I'm extremely paranoid. 
Regardless, I'm in a great mood now! Information is how games are won, and the village definitely has the lead now. The tyrian falls curse shall remain broken! 

Just now, Opal Lion said:

[Turning around all this questioning me business. How does this make it easier? As in it was a bigger win then you were expecting? Or does this solidy/change some reads of yours?

Flamingo’s death doesn't really change my reads that much, maybe strengthens my v!read of Hyena since I think the elims had given Flam up for dead at that point and wouldn't have been trying to defend him.]

It makes it easier because it means coinshot kills will no longer be blocked by the elim lurcher. I was expecting Flamingo to be Thug or Mistborn, but I was most worried about the lurcher being an interference because I feel we're pretty close to solving this game. With the Lurcher out of the way, village can coordinate to kill you so we can figure out the rest of the elim team tomorrow. Fun stuff! Whether you flip elim or not, kinda doesn't matter, since either way we'll be able to move on with more information that we had before. Understandably, I am therefore in a good mood because the information we've been looking for all this time is finally all coming together. Not to mention, Flamingo's flip also hard clears multiple people. Namely, Coral Swan's attack is definitely not a WGG because of Flamingo being a lurcher, it just wouldn't line up for an elim team to be able to both protect Swan and Flamingo that night. There are some other people cleared by this as well. 

I definitely didn't just start jumping up and down in delight just now

"let's freaking GOOO" may have been said

Not only were they an elim, they were the lurcher

This is going to make this all so MUCH EASIER

While I understand your concerns about rhino, after some discussion in PMs Im just fine with what they're doing. I just... Yeah no they're not an elim. 

I agree, Lions felt off. I'm not sure if that's confirmation bias, but their posts have felt off to me since about night 3. 

Well now I'm feeling much better about the current state of this game. I was a bit frustrated by the total lack of information from deaths, but now it seems like if we find the elim lurcher, this puzzle will get solved pretty quickly. I think I'll tackle some analysis here in a bit to see if I can pick it apart a bit. If we run with the theory posited by Rhino, maybe there's something there to be discovered. 

Just now, Plum Rhinoceros said:

that was kinda the point  didn't want to get fear killed too early, but after meerkas died i lost my outlet and needed to step it up

I always seem to go the route of surviving by just being a somewhat decent option for the elims to sus, just due to how I play. 

9 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

yeah my elim team theory atm is as follows:

1. tineye crocodile
2. mistborn flamingo
3. thug lion
4. unknown lurcher

the main reason I feel flamingo and lion are paired, as well as lion and croc are paired, are as follows:

lion attempted to pre-clear themselves before flamingo's flip d4, which feels like elim tmi, using their knowledge of this kayana elim distro as a reason to clear themselves after the flamingo flip

we also know that croc was the tineye who posted the WoBs about animals and allomancy, given he claimed them to meerkas around d3 + those tineye messages stopped after he died, so croc never submitted a kill, and the e!lurcher obviously hasn't submitted any kills either

furthermore, croc pm'd me after i voted lion on d4 to ask me why i was voting lion; i believe he thought lion had got red checked by the seeker and was trying to fish for that information, otherwise he'd just ask me why in thread. it doesn't make a lot of sense for e!croc to privately inquire why I'm voting v!lion

the proposed distro above also makes sense in a v!Coinshot and v!Mistborn world, multiple protects allows for a smaller team

plus there's this:

meerkas was the only player who knew about the "I'm the elim tineye" reaction test ahead of time, and of all the responses, lion and croc were the only ones that were anomolous. lion specifically positing that a village tineye posted it (which is true, but that's what an elim with tmi would immediately jump to) while croc began espousing theories in pms about the elims having two tineyes, which is part of why we decided to have the seeker scan croc in the first place

meerkas did a very similar reaction test in ag8 by sending a tineye message that said he was scanned red, and nearly every elim had an anomolous response in the same way as what we've seen here (because they knew it was a lie)

so yeah, this is where my head is

Sheesh
I would not have suspected so much was going on behind Plum Rhino earlier
Nice job  Can't help but be impressed at the work you've been putting in. 

3 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

given flamingo was also protected last night, that would require two elim lurchers to protect both (or mistborn rolled iron again) and swan to submit the kill on themselves

thing is i know the lurcher who saved swan so if that is the case im not too worried, several others know their identity as well

Oh you do? Well in that case that makes me happy that my paranoid thoughts are just that
Paranoid
(Not that I'm displeased about that. Being overly paranoid about everything is a defense mechanism developed after certain betrayals)
Legitimately though I spent like half an hour yesterday outlining various ways that Coral Swan could be a WGGa

although you're also assuming a 4 man team, I'm still of the opinion it could be a 5 man team. Though... maybe it is just 4 people if Swan flips elim. 

Meanwhile I've been busy trying to figure out if Coral Swan is a WGG, and if the elims are just trying to play an information denial game instead of anything else