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Magenta Albatross
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This is kinda tied up in our win-con, and I'm not sure how to explain without basically giving away our wincon. For now I'll stick to saying that, had toucan been Neutral, or in any faction other than the two I mentioned, we'd have gotten another step towards completing our win-con, but we didn't. I might explain more if its necessary and I get permission from the remains of my team. -
@Sunburst Toucan, can you explain the reason for your deception? You're part of Tuatara's (or maybe Iguana's, but I doubt it) faction, rather than a neutral, so why did you present yourself as Neutral initially?
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Ah, I must have missed that info. I was speculating in my faction doc that maybe Hoid's faction (if there is one), had 'steal a shard if you lynch its holder' passive, so that was the reason for my question.
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Hmmm, interesting question here, though I'll understand if no one form the joe cloud wants to speak up. Do you guys still have Ambition, or did it go MIA as well?
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Oops. Once more with clarity: Joe Charcoal Hyena.
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I'd forgotten about Mouse being the one to reveal that info about axolotl, which changes my view on them. personally, I'm looking into them as I'd prefer to see Odium returned to a faction of which I know most of the remaining members, and who seem to have mostly refrained from murder, than a wildcard faction that can reasonably be suspected of being responsible for at least two attacks (planned, or maybe executed and protected against falcon, and the attack on Gecko). This is my last post of the day, and after some consideration I think I'm going to go with Charcoal Hyena. Mouse being the one that revealed hoid's odd actions suggests to me that they aren't in the same, and I'm a bit hesitant of lynching Ivory because of their solid analysis and contributions, so this lynch could also function as a check of their alignment.
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Okay, running with the idea that the Ancients still have Hoid Odium, who else could be part of it? Cream Tuatara was one of the first votes trying to push in a different direction after the votes on Axolotl started mounting, but he picked a completely new target, rather than trying to push another one of the lynches. However, later in the day they switch to an established lynch that's being pushed as the alternative. Crocodile started the chameleon lynch, but I think that makes him less likely to be a team-mate of Hoid,a s team-mate would at that point probably have tried to push a pre-exisitng lynch. Dragonfly is a better example of what I'd expect a team-mate of axolotl to do: vote on a lynch that already has votes without committing to heavily in axolotl's defense (by suggesting he'd vote on Odiums current holder if penguin could actually find proof of their identity). Mouse states that Axolotl is useful, without going itno details about why, and votes to try and save them. Either mouse was promised something, or they're in the same faction as axolotl. Hyena seems to be in the same boat as mouse, with a mostly unexplained vote switch, with their previous vote also having been cast in defense of Axolotl. Flamingo seemed to honestly been flipping coins, but who knows. Heron jumped back and forth on the issue, but his final jump occurred close to the cycle being over while Axolotl was in the lead for being lynched, suggesting that it might have been a distancing technique. So, at a guess I'd say Hoid's team, if he had one, would consist of mouse, Dragonfly and probably Hyena.
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That's a horrible thing to do! Joe In all seriousness though, @Emerald Falcon and/or stealth gardeners, did Odium land with either of you? Because if it didn't, I feel like looking for some more ancients, given that they appear to be more trigger happy than the garden was.
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If the Ancients still have Odium, it's probably them, given that Gecko was a main driving force of the lynch of axolotl. If that's the case, I wouldn't be against going after them, as they seem to be using Odium a lot more than the Garden was. @A Joe in the Bush, are we supposed to read something in the death of Ruby Bison, or was that just the DM's having fun?
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Apparently he'd been planning the death of flacon though. Either way, I at least will rest a lot easier knowing that it's going to be very difficult to get at my faction's Shards now. And through today's votes it shouldn't be that hard to track down the remaining members of the hidden garden if Odium goes on a killing spree.
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Just saying, Hoid's group is called the Ancients, while aon Ire represents time or Age. The Ancients could quite easily just be a translation of the Ire. edit: If I had to guess, he can steal shards if he's part of their lynch (which is probably a passive ability), and he probably knows where the shards are at any one time, or by using an action (which explains his claims about Shardic movement), but probably not their identity.
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Well then. I'd like to say I called it, or something self-agrandizing like that, but basically the only reason I voted against Axolotl in the end was a contractual obligation that didn't even involve him, only the lynch alternative. Good job to those figuring him out though. Now could anyone please explain how they knew he was Hoid and had Odium?
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So, I've just been informed in my faction doc that we'd be defaulting on an agreement if Pearl Chameleon gets lynched without sufficient votes helping them out from us. Its always nice when you get informed in time about the details of an agreement (which totally has nothing to do with me forgetting to check my doc), so I suppose I'll be voting axolotl? At this point I'd really like to take another look at Toucan, as they claimed to have a secret role of sorts as well (assuming Zebra was speaking the truth about having survival in their faction), but there just isn't time.
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@Sunburst Toucan, What do you have to say about this whole 'Odium has been stolen' thing? After all, you're another person that by their own admission has something of a secret role.
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Dragonfly just seems to be running with the assumption everyone is making, but Heron actually seems to know more. Does anyone know where Meerkat was when he died, and where axolotl currently is? Apparently Ruin attacked Axolotl, so that leaves either a Dakhor monk or Odium as Meerkat's killer, and I happen to be fairly certain Dominion was on Silverlight for the past two nights (assuming Weasel's clam of having been redirected during the previous day can be believed).
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Where has axolotl claimed that he stole Odium (or was hoid, or had a shard-stealing role)? that's basically the big clinching point for me. if someone could tell me why people think he did that, apart from him maybe having a secret role, I'll happily join to lynch axolotl, but so far I've only seen people claim this as if its a self-evident fact, and I don't see it.
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After retracting that speculation, yes. Before that he stated that it was one of Odium, Devotion and one other because they hadn't left silverlight (and he gave Ruin as an example of not being the creator because they had). @Violet Axolotl, what rules misunderstanding led you to believe you knew which shards had and hadn't left silverlight?
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Well, if he tried to kill you based on the accusations leveraged against you (stealing Odium and what-not) (did you know about that, @Indigo Weasel?), it's not that odd that a faction with shards and a means to kill would want to get rid of you. That having been said, I feel like there's just barely not enough evidence to lynch Axolotl. I believe the main point was that the faction with Odium believed you had stolen it, but apparently at least one person in that faction no longer thinks so, and they're not sharing the info that led them to that conclusion. I still feel like there's something fishy going on there, but not enough to push for that lynch with the information I currently have. If those that know more want to change my mind, they've got to put their cards on the table, because I'm not lynching someone just because someone claims they're evil for 'reasons'.
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Sorry, I must've missed that. Can you refer back to where you clarified that? I only remember you hinting that you where very certain, and that it wasn't just analysis back during that day, but I might have missed something else later.
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There's a bit more to it than that. During D2 he had fairly accurate seeming* information about the movement of the various shards, which was odd, to put it mildly. I'd be very curious to hear from the members of Odiums former faction why exactly they think it was axolotl though. *I know he was right about at least one of the shards not leaving silverlight, for example.
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Penguin, could you share a bit more about your theory? Right now I've seen some fairly compelling evidence for why Axolotl might be Hoid, and why Hoid might have the power to steal shards. I can't really think of any revealed mechanic stealing shards (I considered dominion redirecting an investment action, but investment actions happen during the day, and Dominion can only redirect during the night), so I assume you've got a theory about another hidden ro... Kelsier. Think about it. He's a worldhopper, and he's been known to have stolen a Shard before that he shouldn't have been able to take. It makes more thematic sense than Hoid being able to steal shards.
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Hmmm, I'm not sure about this. I mean, we have no information about your role or win-con either (though it seems to involve you not dying to the lynch), but that doesn't mean I suggest we lynch you. I think we know at the very least that Axolotl can track the movements of Shards up to a certain degree because of their statement regarding Yolen.
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Oops, you're right. And here I thought I'd found something interesting.
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I'd like to highlight this. It implicitly confirms that Khriss was not working alone, as here win-con has not been revealed. It seems her role is also tied to her faction, given that they where given the same colors. So, let's do some baseless speculation! Khriss is the figure-head of a faction, so presumably that faction is doing something in line with Khriss' goals. Looking at the past 2 Shard games, Khriss has been opposed to Hoid's goals both times (though I believe in LG29 she was just an RP role, rather than an in-game role), so it would stand to reason that that's the case in this game as well. in the previous shard-game her overall goal was to lock down all Shardic power by having them invest in planets. on the other hand, Hoid's goal has usually been to gatehr all the shards and reforge Adonalsium. Anyway, let's go back to speculating. I believe the current guess at the number of factions was 7 (that's what the analysis table in my doc says anyway). There's 10 Shards, so if I had to guess there's 5 Shardic factions with 2 shards each, and then the Hoid and Khriss factions. Alternatively there's 4 shardic factions, and both the Hoid and Khriss faction get 1 shard. Anyway, I'd guess that in this game Khriss' faction might have been tasked with wiping out Hoid's faction, while Hoid's faction is tasked with somehow gathering all the shards. @Violet Axolotl, can you tell me how close my guesses are? So far you're the only one that has explicitly shown themselves to posses some very odd powers, so if I had to guess who Hoid was, it'd be you.
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Wasn't Ambition yellow-ish last Shard game? Maybe that was just my head-canon. Edit: Hmm, no, Ambition didn't get assigned a color that game, so it's probably just my head-canon.
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