Oxblood Beagle

Edit: And we should’ve realised this sooner but when one player is consistently coming up as a wagon throughout the game, it’s usually just an elim. Penguin was a major wagon D1, a major wagon D4, and cropped up during multiple other points in the game. This should’ve been a red flag but these things often don’t make themselves obvious until this late in the game unfortunately. Day 4 is very telling specifically because before Ostrich’s gambit, Albatross was the leading wagon and Penguin was the second most popular contender for the vote there, but Albatross never touched the Penguin wagon and instead tried to vote Lion. Why wouldn’t Alb self pres on v!Penguin? There’s no reason for them to not do that. In a gamestate with only 2 elims left, not self pressing is nuts. The only reason you wouldn’t do that is if the self pres option is your partner. Alb wasn’t on during the exact eod time as announced, so them not voting Penguin is big. Edit: And of course there’s the fact that Penguin is literally a claimed Smoker, & responsible for Meerkat. Occam’s Razor.

If you didn’t want to say so, why make that last post? If you were village and got NK’d, what was the point of leaving that post without an attached explanation? Because that defeats the purpose of avoiding NK influence or whatever and right now it looks like intentionally planted IKYK to me. I’ve been thinking about both e!Cham and e!Penguin worlds, and e!Cham had a sure fire path to victory if they had killed Penguin overnight, because I was clearly tunnelling Scorp and obviously would have voted him today while Penguin was the only one considering “testing” Cham’s thug claim yesterday. Neither Scorp or myself ever agreed to that, so killing Penguin is 100% always what Cham does. It doesn’t matter if Scorp wasn’t sure on v!Cham because I had clearly been repping that read and in 2v1 you need 2 votes to kill. NKing elsewhere isn’t worth throwing away the assured win, I don’t think. @Pearl Chameleon I still want to know what you’re thinking. I guess thinking about it now it makes sense that I haven’t been kept alive all these days - because I’ve been hard defending Penguin all game. My bad. More to come later as I’m gathering my thoughts going over the game again, but I’m around 70% convinced right now.

Okay. @Pearl Chameleon Now's the time to reveal whatever it is you haven't revealed. Where's your head at now, given Scorp's flip? @Chartreuse Penguin Why didn't you consider Scorp at all yesterday?

Lol this game Edit: Why did you think PMs would be open

How is that peculiar? He said at least 3 smokers because the entire playerlist hadn't claimed to him. I claimed my true role to Mouse - vanilla. I didn't end up claiming in that group because I wasn't sure how I independently felt about Flamingo beyond trusting Mouse's read. Edit: If you know Mouse at all, you'd know that he wouldn't die with the knowledge of a claimed Smoker of all things. He'd have told multiple people that he trusted as contingency. Edit: Grr Penguin you're ruining my chances of eating the NK I don't want to have to be here for the part that matters. Edit: I also just re-checked all my PMs with Mouse and no, he hadn't told me you had claimed Smoker but I don't know why that matters? Edit: Okay. It has to be Scorp for PoE reasons. I trust Cham. I reread (skimmed, really) Penguin’s content and I’m not wavering on my v read there either. Lion had a good argument about Scorp’s vote fluidity sticking out on D3 compared to all other Days where their vote was more static. It’s more than that though: their Vulture vote was cast late, they were already at 5 votes: This was basically at EoD too so the it does look like an elim having decided to cut their losses and just bus last minute. And this also explains why Alb was frozen and didn’t end up voting, because the two were likely caught up discussing in the elim doc about whether to commit to the bus or not. Also, shortly before this vote: Scorp signals here that they’d be fine flashwagoning Kangaroo while not wanting to be the one to initiate it. In the same post they question Lion switching their vote to Vulture in a way that’s obviously meant to call negative attention to Lion’s vote for wonky progression I’m guessing. And it’s worsened by the fact that Scorp had been repping a v read on Lion that entire time. Their progression on everything surrounding Vulture is really inconsistent & hedgy and you can really see their constructed worldview failing to stay true to itself under this high-pressure EoD. And then there’s this from D4: Elephant takes precedence over Alb in their ordered PoE for ?? reasons, despite the fact that Alb had put out actively elimmy content whereas Elephant had been supremely inactive. I don’t recall Scorp ever sharing what made Alb more village over Elephant at any point in the game, so this is really odd in hindsight. Not just that, but in the same post they don’t vote either of these two but instead vote Iguana? For science? It doesn’t add up. That’s what I’ll leave the thread with. It’s gotta be Scorp, neither Penguin nor Cham make sense here. Another argument in Penguin’s favor that i ironically realized while defending myself from Penguin’s sus is that Penguin would not have NK’d Flamingo at the stage where Flamingo died. Flamingo created a trust PM between themself, me, and Penguin (as Penguin mentioned) and I don’t see them immediately NKing Flamingo when they were more trusting of Penguin than any of the remaining players. It doesn’t make sense when e!Penguin can instead utilise the fact that Flamingo was evidently a bit detached from the thread and could have been manipulated easily as a result. They would’ve kept them around at least a bit longer.

Oh I misunderstood your post, I guess that makes sense. I'm neither of those things though, I'm a regular villager. (<-- Real) Cham, can you talk more about what you meant by this? Both the part about you dying and how kangaroo would've been implicated by it I...don't think I want us to gamble on exeing Cham tomorrow. I'm going to be doing the due diligence with regards to everybody tonight, but the chances of e!Cham are still very low in my opinion.

Wait, if Cham is v and a thug then we literally can’t lose (?) 3v1 —> 2v1 —> can’t kill a thug. Will it be 1v1? A coin flip? Unless there are two left in which case the game will end after tonight

Penguin, what did you mean by my reaction to Ostrich being indicative of Elim mistborn? In your post from last turn

Scorp..??

For posterity, I did read Kangaroo last turn and I went over their posts again and, well, the main reason I just don’t see myself voting anywhere else today is that my PoE is exactly <Kangaroo>. Chameleon has been exceptionally villagery for the last 6 turns and like I said earlier if Cham is an elim I’m happy to lose to them. Scorpion has been approaching the game like a villager since the start and has been on the same wavelength as myself for a large portion of the game. Penguin, while mechanically suspect, has been making reasonable posts consistently throughout in a way that makes their thought process transparent (comparing it to the curtained process in Alb’s posts, for instance) and in my opinion is doing more than what I’ve ever seen e!him do. Add to this that they have been transparent about being a smoker since early-game for no real reason that I’m aware of, which frankly, generally isn’t a route I see e!smokers take. If this is wrong, I think I’m likelier wrong on Scorp over Penguin, pending ISO reviews, though this might just be recency bias off Lion’s last couple of posts. But I really don’t want to go there if we don’t have to, so fingers crossed: Kangaroo

I'm not gonna lie I had (unreasonable) doubts about Lion actually being a Soother. Because the only time they visibly soothed a vote was at a very convenient point in the game and when asked to soothe Swan they just...didn't. Though I guess that soothe had to have come from somewhere. And yeah, Albatross is the crafty type in my experience. I just rechecked and the rules say the smoked players' votes can't be moved, so there's nothing that could've 'failed' swan's riot other than the riot target (Meerkat) being smoked. I assume Swan wouldn't have gotten a failure message if someone had soothed Swan's vote. Not sure why that would happen to begin with. Edit: Storms that Ostrich exe was so bad. Why did any of that happen. I guess it kind of helped us get Alb but we were getting Alb that day before that entire thing anyway...

Lion was a claimed Soother so their death isn’t surprising at all and I’d generally stay away from NKAing this kind of a kill. But bear with me, imagine an e!Penguin world assuming only one elim left: Lion is hard defending you, and Lion can make a vote of their choice disappear Scorpion has you first in PoE Beagle has trusted you all game but hasn’t commented on you in the last cycle Kangaroo exists, Chameleon exists Reasonable to assume E!Penguin wouldn’t wanna NK a claimed thug (Cham) or a villager they can get ML’d (Kangaroo), yes? The expected kill is Lion for their claimed role but realistically any of lion/scorp/beagle dying isn’t too eyebrow-raising. So…Doesn’t E!Penguin just kill me here? That way, they get Lion to ML Scorpion for them, who otherwise would’ve been a threat to Penguin. They could also use NKA to argue in their favor, citing my v!read on them if they wanted extra defence. Lion would not have used their Soothe against Penguin in the near future as far as I could tell. Keeping them around would’ve been beneficial to Penguin - yes there are IKYK plays, but in a solo elim world I assume they have to play pragmatically. So I’m reluctant to vote Penguin here I think. But @Chartreuse Penguin during N3 you PM’d me claiming you had smoked one of Vulture’s voters. I didn’t get the chance to respond because the last tineye died right then, but who exactly did you smoke? And why did you choose them? Was it Meerkat?

Kangaroo, my concern with regards to your Alb progression is that all your posts from Day 3 that appear to shade Alb simultaneously seem to want to vote elsewhere. What I mean is this: Distances from Albatross, but indicates willingness for a Cham vote (your vote was currently on Cham). Here you follow through on your post from earlier, but with a question inviting someone to convince you on the heron case, reiterated here: And transparently explained here: I realize this was a while ago but can you talk about where your head was at with regards to Heron? Was it just a true null? Earlier in the turn you expressed a mild defense of Vulture, so how come you didn’t vote a null read to save them? Asking because posts read like you wanted to switch to the heron wagon but couldn’t come up with a believable justification, but I might just be misunderstanding your posts. It’s hard to read the situation here because elims sometimes get stuck on a bus for “maintaining progression” reasons (i.e. you said earlier that you’d be okay with an Alb vote but that Cham was preferred, so what do you do when Cham is no longer a viable wagon? An elim might feel obligated to stay true to their projected line of thought there) and find it hard to convincingly move off the bus. And Alb didn’t move to save Vulture either.

Okay. Tomorrow is exlo if there are two left? You know, they were actually lock v last cycle since they could not have submitted the kill on N5. Unfortunate. Wagonomics aside, I’ll look at Penguin’s posts again when I can. Chameleon is still clear IMO, Penguin. Do you have concerns there now?

What Self-smoking was never a night action in any Tyrian game ever? As far as I remember?

? Smoking is on by default isn’t it? Even if rolled by the mistborn on the same turn? Logically it is Meerkat before anybody else, ignoring gut because I do agree with Scorp that Meerkat’s posts from earlier were tonally very village/pure but if this is who I think it is, they haven’t had an elim game before so I guess I might’ve been underestimating them due to lack of an actual comparator.

What do you mean? I have no idea about the distro implications I’m not good with that stuff. I guess I could see two more elims if both are vanilla? But obviously this isn’t the case because at least one elim messed with the Riot last cycle. I’m inclined to think there’s one and that they’re a Mistborn. Is that balanced?

This seems to be the extent of Albatross' non-objective thoughts on Meerkat. The first post brushes them off as someone they 'need to look at' and the second post throws a vote there a couple of seconds shy of EoD and this is when Hyena had 9 votes and Meerkat had 2. Could plausibly see this as weak distancing?

That technically could have happened, but Meerkat seems like a random target for a villager to smoke and then not disclose it. Penguin's the only claimed smoker here, I think. If there's an elim smoker around, I think they would have ideally smoked someone who'd be a likely seeker target from their point of view? In case there's a secret v!Mistborn/v!Seeker here If I had a seeker action last cycle I wouldn't have used it on Meerkat. Which is why Meerkat is a weird target for an e!smoker and this doesn't really make sense unless Meerkat is lying about their role. Edit: And yeah, Albatross should have been the default target for e!smoker last cycle if true.

I…don’t think I’d have considered Meerkat in the near future at all it weren’t for Swan’s Riot being weird. @Coral Swan thank you and apologies. And yeah, going Meerkat should end it here I think. Small outside chance of Kangaroo.

This is a funny post to make if e!Croc but that's all I got.

Crocodile will self-resolve. When was the last time they even posted? N4 I think?

Nice. I was beginning to think I’d lost my touch. Lion, why didn’t you soothe Swan to help prove their “role”? I distrust Swan still after the rioter claim, for what it’s worth. It feels very convenient. Could be a mistborn? @Salmon Meerkat what’s your role?

Edit: Also now that you've said this I think I'm going to be more convinced youre an elim if Alb flips green. I despite pre-flipping so I'll stop right there though. (I know this reads like a 'no u' rebuttal but I do mean it.) I'll be on after turn ends. GL.

There is no way you actually believe this. There are other ways to do this if we're e/e, PMs were open and we would have a doc. The only reason I unvoted them was because I saw they straight up had not been online on the shard for several days (so they werent lurking/would not be seeing my vote) and were likely going to get filtered out. To the rest of your post: If you really think e!me goes out of my way to actively defend a teammate dying to the filter and actively defend another teammate who is not only half dead but is being run up by every other player and their grandma, I really don't know what to tell you. What's my path to victory there? For what it's worth, and I know self meta is worthless in anon, but I either just ignore my teammates or 100% bus those two in that position if I want to endgame as an elim here. Vulture was not surviving after that thug life got hit and if I as an elim continue to hard defend them after that, it is just bad play. I would like to think I wouldn't make a play that bad but who knows.