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Everything posted by Oxblood Beagle
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AN12 - Night Three: Guilty of Murder
Oxblood Beagle replied to The Unknown Medallion's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Saboteur... Seeker what -
Alive 1. Dragonfly - Lurcher (N1 - Beagle, N2 - Dragonfly) 2. Weasel - Lurcher (N1 - Weasel, N2 - Dragonfly) 3. Zebra - Lurcher (N2 - Heron) 4. Axolotl - Lurcher (N1 - Axolotl, N2 - Heron) 5. Meerkat - Seeker (N1 - Gecko, N2 - Zebra) 6. Dingo - Seeker (N1 - Croc (smoked), N2 - Zebra) 7. Flamingo - Kandra -> Seeker (N2 - Toucan) 8. Heron - Kandra (N1 - Tried to get Seeker) 9. Toucan - Coinshot (N1 - Axolotl, N2 - Idled) 10. Octopus - Coinshot (N1 - Crocodile, N2 - Elephant) 11. Rhinoceros - Mistborn (C1 - Rioter (Idled), C2 - Thug) 12. Gecko - Mistborn (C2 - Tineye, C3 - Rioter) 13. Beagle - Mistborn (C1 - Seeker (Albatross)) 14. Albatross - Vanilla 15. Chameleon 16. Lion Dead 1. Elephant - V!Mistborn 2. Iguana - E!Kandra 3. Crocodile - E!Rioter 4. Kangaroo - E!Seeker @Plum Rhinoceros Unless I missed something, I think this is everything publicly known. (Feel free to correct me if there was something incorrectly inputted)
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Yeah, agree with this, so basically if Dingo is telling the truth about his Seeker claim, it means the last two roles in a 5 elim team is Lurcher and Smoker, which does make sense given the other village roles. And yeah, it's quite possible for the elims to see that there's already 2 Lurcher claims (and 1 joke claim, which I didn't expect people took seriously) before today, and then go with a different role claim since people might be honing in on the Lurcher claims
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Also, partially why I lean Meerkat more over Ocho is that I can believe in the possibility of 2 V!Coinshot, but not 2 V!Seeker. Unless it's a world where the elims have a lot of Smoking power, it feels very unlikely it would be designed in a manner where if the village is careful, the 2 V!Seekers can solve the game fully mechanically
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If Ocho flips E, I probably am going to relook at Rhino, though I guess it is a bit more confusing to me if Ocho is E. Iguana and Rhino both kind of showed suspicion toward Ocho D1 and then did a heel-turn D2 and defended them. I don't know if two elims wanted to do the exact same thing on both days. I don't know about the distro, I think I'll probably think more on it, since I feel like my initial prediction on it ended up being quite a lot farther than what it actually is turning out to be
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Agree with this, I think for me basically, if Meerkat flips e!, then I'm more inclined to look at Lion and Cham first since everyone else, I feel like I have some level of trust either socially, mechanically, or both. That might also explain the perceived elim complacency, since if it's Lion/Cham, they're basically already 1 down from the go and didn't have as much leeway to actually sway things.
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Not entirely impossible to have a 3 elim remaining world if we take into account that there's multiple Lurchers and so, the elims have a more difficult time actually getting in kills, but I also doubt it since that's way too many starting elims and that they also have a Rioter to boot Also, Octo train has a bunch of people that are likely to be there before rollover, so I think it's something that can still be deliberated on
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I'm willing to vote on it. Quartz Zebra Salmon Meerkat I feel like things aren't adding up with both the Gecko check and the behavior towards Gecko on D2. Plus, the Zebra check being a "free" check due to forgetting to submit an action. I can buy it if there was actual reasoning for the check since I think if I were Seeker, I would have also checked them, but it's just not adding up that someone would be given a free check and coincidentally on someone that has a lot of suspicion on them right now He did vote Kanga on D1, but that was very early in the day phase, and Rhino also had suggested an idea that maybe it is intentional for the elims to poke-distance (Kanga voted Croc, Ig voted Kanga). It's possible the play might be to act as a lost villager while the rest of the village go after each other. Huh what
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Yeah, exactly, like giving a free random target if you forget to submit ends up giving an unfair advantage to the team with that action And DF had the same idea where both the context of Gecko's Tineye message and the writing style points to him being Mistborn, so it can be faked. If Meerkat is lying, it's quite possible this is a scheme to stall him and Zebra being exe'd
