Sapphire Elephant

I can confirm that Penguin is Mistborn who coinshot Mouse, and Swan is a coinshot who hit Dragonfly. Regarding the vote analysis, it flagged for me that Croc was worthy of suspicion. Now obviously they were scanned before we had to actually deal with that independently. But otherwise being disengaged? Everyone else has been for the last few cycles - we had to work our way through 3 clear cut executions which didn't produce any analysis worth considering. Do you really think that I, the sort of player that when given the information plots out every potential outcome based on different actions (see the diagram my tenure as Azure Mouse in AG4, wouldn't have taken the shot on the coinshot when knowing as soon as we could? Sure, maybe not do it immediately to not out myself in that situation, but say N6 when the only reason to not attack you again was either thinking there was a lurcher protecting you or that you had been a thug and not worth hitting again, no reason why E!Me doesn't take the shot on you knowing you're the Coinshot and that you were unprotected. So let's find this last Spiked. Remaining players: Penguin - Village Mistborn Swan - Village Coinshot Ostrich - Village Inactive Toucan - Village Inactive Falcon - ??? Chameleon - ??? Elephant - Claimed Village Vanilla If there's only one spiked, the game is won. Worst case scenario, you execute me, coinshot one of Falcon/Chameleon, they flip Village, while Swan gets Night killed. The remaining players execute whoever of Falcon/Chameleon wasn't coinshot, and game ends. Although I suppose if one of Falcon/Cham is a village thug, then they don't die. That brings us to 5v1, misexecution would be 4v1, night kill is 3v1, but there's still a 2v1. Still, more likely that we get a village win in that scenario. As for today though, I'm going to once again place my vote on Chameleon. Reviewing the votes from C1-C3 Day 1, no elims were under any particular threat, so they could do whatever really. Hard to draw any information from votes there - I voted Scorpion, Chameleon voted Hyena, Falcon voted Dragonfly. Day 2, Chameleon breaks the 4 way tie between Weasel, Heron, Rhino, and Flamingo by voting on Heron with Scorpion, and eventually Heron becomes the runaway train. Falcon does become the counterwagon, which is pure village, but what stopped it from being a tie was Dragonfly. I voted Scorpion, Falcon didn't vote. Day 3, at 3 hours to go, this was the vote tally: At 3 hours, Chameleon moves to Lion from Dragonfly. This ties Flamingo and Lion. Rather than consolidate a Flamingo lead, which would be the most defensive move, they tie Lion up - putting the Spiked Thug up for execution against the Lurcher, who at least survives the execution, unlike Flamingo. This is followed by Croc in the next half hour swapping to Chameleon from Flamingo, making it Spiked Thug vs Spiked Soother(?) - sure it would be better to vote Dragonfly or something, but Croc was chatting heavily with Meerkat so likely had to play a dangerous game to sell the con. Yes, it'd make Cycle 3 being an debate between 3 Spiked, but while Croc and Flamingo tried to start an execution on Swan, Meerkat, Swan, Rhino went in on Spiked, Toucan brought in Chameleon, and no other villagers were biting on any of the Spiked suggested votes on villagers by halfway through the cycle. By that point the votes are fairly set, so it's not unreasonable to imagine the decision to work instead on damage control, and push Lion to be the main target over Flamingo or Chamelon. I stayed on Chameleon, Falcon stayed on Flamingo. To me, Falcon staying on Flamingo to the end feels villagery, while as I say, Cham pushing Lion to be the execution over Flamingo feels like a Spiked making the most of a bad situation. So again, so it's clear given all my highlighting, my vote is on Chameleon.

Well, if you want a vote, let's go with Albatross. Looking at C1-3 votes has me feeling better about most of my previously standing sus's. Albatross and Ostrich I remember the least about, so that's likely where I'll look tomorrow. They're rank 5/11 for posts out of living players, but tied 8/11 for number of votes, with only 1 vote in the first 3 cycles, so purely based on stats is in that coasting under the radar sorta zone. I don't recall if they've had stated OOG reasons. Again, I'll check on that when I'm next on.

For day 3: At 47.5 hours, Crocodile votes Swan. At 45.5 hours, Meerkat votes Lion. At 45.5 hours, Swan votes Flamingo. At 45 hours, Flamingo votes Swan. At 45 hours, Rhino votes Flamingo. At 43.5 hours, Crocodile moves to Weasel from Swan. This puts Flamingo in the lead. At 31 hours, Toucan votes Mouse. At 31 hours, Scorpion votes Flamingo. This consolidates the Flamingo lead. Interesting choices from the Spiked here. At 30 hours, Mouse votes for Flamingo. At 26.5 hours, Toucan moves to Chameleon from Mouse. At 26 hours, Rhino moves to Chameleon from Flamingo. At 26 hours, Chameleon votes Dragonfly. At 24.5 hours, Hyena votes Dragonfly. At 23 hours, Crocodile moves to Lion from Weasel. Interesting they choose to tie up the Spiked Thug with Chameleon and Dragonfly in second place behind Flamingo. At 18 hours, Falcon votes Flamingo. This consolidates the Flamingo lead. (Lean village on Falcon) At 10.5 hours, Elephant votes Chameleon, putting Chameleon in second place. At 8.5 hours, Rhino moves to Lion from Chameleon. This puts Lion in second place instead. At 5.5 hours, Flamingo moves to Penguin from Swan. At 4.5 hours, Weasel votes Chameleon, tying for second place with Lion. At 3 hours, Chameleon moves to Lion from Dragonfly. This ties Flamingo and Lion. Interesting choice to put the Spiked Thug on the chopping block rather than vote Flamingo to increase the safety margin between them and Flamingo, even if they do low sus Flamingo in their post. At 2.5 hours, Scorpion moves to Chameleon from Flamingo. This ties Chameleon and Lion and protects Flamingo. Considered together it works to put Lion up for execution as the the preferable Spiked execution target. Although actively putting Chameleon in danger does reduce my sus levels on them I suppose. At 2 hours, Weasel moves to Lion from Chameleon. This gives Lion a two vote lead. At 1 hour, Flamingo moves to Chameleon from Penguin. This does make me feel better about Chameleon at this point. At 35 min, Mouse moves to Lion from Flamingo, giving up on the Flamingo train to double down on Lion. Still divided on Mouse. This removes Flamingo from threat, while consolidating on Lion. But if Flamingo was willing to put Chameleon under threat, why would E!Mouse consolidate on Lion rather than help the Flamingo counter wagon? Maybe we are in a V/V Mouse/Chameleon world? At 28 min, Ostrich votes Lion. At 2 min, Swan moves to Chameleon. At 1 min, Hyena moves to Lion from Dragonfly. At 1 min, Swan moves to Flamingo from Chameleon. Final Tally So some interesting stuff happens, but I feel like I need to thing about it more >>

It's a good point. It could suggest an inactive buddy who didn't get on to put in a night kill, forcing Scorpion to do the Night Kill.

I'm making a mess... Sigh...

Once again recolouring the vote tallies from Days 1-2, and adding in Day 3 this time. (EDIT: Bah, stupid forums. Broke my formatting and it posted without it being ready. WIP getting this tidied up.) So recolouring the vote tallies from D1 and D2, in case they end up useful. Day 1 This is the tally of the first 12 hours of Day 1, all just random poke votes. Crocodile’s move from Tuatara to Rhino at just under 14 hours in marks the first vote with some basis attached. Swan opts for a poke vote at 20 hours in, while Weasel’s distaste for right aligned text prompts the first vote to take someone’s tally to two, at 23 hours in. At just under 24 hours, Tuatara shifts their poke become serious vote from me onto Hyena, tying them with Dingo, for complaining about no game discussion in thread without contributing any. Scorpion appears giving a quite late poke vote on a new candidate at 26 hours in/22 hours remaining. At 20 hours remaining, Falcon votes Dragonfly for poke voting and then not referring back to it in later posts. At 19 hours in, Flamingo appears and poke votes Penguin for inactivity. Leaves us with a 3 way tie between Hyena, Dingo, and Penguin, with Penguin a result of two late arrivals with just poke votes. At 18 hours remaining, Meerkat moves to Hyena, putting Hyena in the lead. At 16 hours, Heron votes Iguana for the comment about the new thread being a “crazy situation”. Dingo gives us our first vote tally as they vote for Chameleon for the mismatch between their claims of PMing everyone versus actually responding to Dingo’s PMs, doing this at 15 hours remaining. After the vote tally, at 13 hours remaining, Meerkat moves their vote to Heron due to their defensiveness in their vote, intentionally tying up Hyena, Dingo, and Penguin again. At 10 hours remaining, Crocodile moves to Mouse for deflecting from answering Crocodile’s question, creating a 4 way tie. At 7 hours to go, Hyena is uncomfortable with the suggested early “hard” clear of someone by Tuatara. At 6 hours, Toucan makes a 5 way tie by voting on Scorpion, although it’s pointed out they seemed to be referring to Iguana, to whom they change their vote to within 20 minutes, but essentially agreeing with Heron’s suspicion. Still creates a 5 way tie. At 5.5 hours, Hyena reluctantly retracts from Tuatara, seeming confused, before at 5 hours remaining proposes Kangaroo for lurking. At 3.5 hours remaining, Tuatara removes Hyena from the 5 way tie to propose Flamingo as a new candidate without reason until prompted by Hyena - for the different ways in which they talk about Penguin. 7 minutes before the end of cycle, Crocodile moves from Mouse to Kangaroo, maintaining a 4 way tie. 4 minutes before the end of cycle, Dingo moves from Chameleon to Iguana being uncomfortable with the vote, choosing Iguana for lack of involvement though they’re online - this puts Iguana in the lead. 1 minute before the end of cycle, Dragonfly ties up Iguana with Dingo, for Dingo “posting a lot with little substance”. Final Tally Main thing of note to me is that Penguin comes out of Day 1 looking pretty good - that’s a dangerous on Scorpion and Flamingo’s case to stay so long on a buddy given the length of time they were tied, and how close the final votes were. Day 2 At 10 hours to go, vote tally was: 9.5 hours - Rhino moves to Flamingo 9 hours - Meerkat moves to Heron (2 way tie with Weasel) 8.5 hours - Mouse votes on Rhino, Toucan moves to Rhino (3 way tie with Weasel and Heron), 8 hours - Heron moves to Flamingo making a 4 way tie, Scorpion votes on Heron (Heron 1-vote lead), saving Flamingo 7.5 hours - Meerkat moves to Falcon, dropping back to a 4 way tie (Heron, Rhino, Flamingo, Falcon). 7 hours - Chameleon votes on Heron, putting them back in the lead. (Slight sus on Chameleon for this) 5 hours - Meerkat locks in the lead by moving back to Heron. 5 hours - Tuatara moves to Flamingo, tying Heron and Flamingo 4.5 hours - Flamingo votes Swan 4 hours - Tuatara moves to Dragonfly from Flamingo, putting Heron in the lead again 3 hours - Rhino moves to Dragonfly from Flamingo. 2 hours - Crocodile “moves” to Heron from the Mouse vote they never placed, locking Heron in first place 1.5 hours - Mouse moves to Heron from Rhino. At this point, there’s likely little value to the subsequent analysis as Heron was locked in by this point, but continuing on anyway. 1.5 hours - Hyena votes on Flamingo. 1.5 hours - Ostrich votes Falcon, introducing a new target. 1.5 hours - Tuatara moves to Falcon from Dragonfly 1 hour - Hyena moves to Falcon from Flamingo, thinking that maybe the Heron train can be caught up to. 1 hour - Rhino moves to Falcon from Dragonfly. 50 min - Hyena retracts vote from Falcon 31 min - Dragonfly moves to Heron from Weasel. This is where I get a little sus of Dragonfly again, as this is what stops the Falcon counterwagon. That being said, for it to truly be an issue, we’d need E!Dragonfly and E!Falcon, but I’m not sure I’m ready to truly consider two more elims. 24 min - Hyena votes on Falcon again 15 min - Albatross moves to Falcon from Weasel 12 min - Elephant votes on Scorpion Final Tally This makes me feel good about Ostrich and Swan, bad about Chameleon, and undecided on how I feel about Mouse, Dragonfly, and Falcon. [EDIT: Now we’re all properly formatted. Now to go work out D3 in another post. But boy do I wish the Shard still had a BBCode view in the editor… >>]

Nice shot, Coinshot! Figure I'll jump back into the vote tallies from the early cycle now that we've got another Spike flip to see if there's more to gather from those. While I'm at it, were we assuming one more Spiked at this point, then I'll note that Ivory Dragonfly and Indigo Weasel weren't online during the Night 6, as best I can tell, so couldn't have put in night actions, such as the night kill. Though we don't know that Scorp didn't have to put in the kill I suppose.

Hmm. Had been sus of Lion any way so sure. Lion.

Don't know why Swan's bring me into this, so sure, happy enough for Swan to be coinshot I guess?

So recolouring the vote tallies from D1 and D2, in case they end up useful. Day 1 Day 2

Never ended up getting around to putting a vote down so Flamingo.

It's certainly not impossible. Where I'm divided is in a V!CS world, which seems likely, Flamingo is obviously a distraction. Taking Flamingo off the board removes that distraction from the Coinshot, whereas leaving Flamingo on the board is going to leave the doubt of where they stand on the situation for the rest of the game. So what if they're a thug - that doesn't really inform their alignment either way. On the other hand, the real cost of executing Flam is the lack of true discussion that gives us opportunity to analyse reactions to find more Spiked. I do stand on the "would probably prefer to have Flam flip so the matter is resolve and/or I lean toward them being a Spiked Lurcher at this stage, but I think I will try look back over the previous cycles to see if there's any leads.

Worse, it's more likely I think that there are two Spiked Lurchers...

The writeups/info posted at the start of a cycle distinguish the two types of kills.

This feels very poke-y for 4 minutes until the end of the cycle. I don't really understand why e!Crocodile would do something so arbitrary and suspicious. Confusion See, it's that vote that's makes me confused about Mouse. While yes, they acted as mouth piece for a scan claim, when it was a 4 way tie for lead with Mouse being one of the those up for execution, at 7 minutes to go Croc moves from Mouse to Kangaroo, saving them by putting Kangaroo on the line. Now, other last minute votes made it Iguana v Dingo, but still, 7 minutes to go, an elim moving off one player for another? It makes me nervous.

I had sus'ed Croc the last cycle for voting patterns, so I am willing to help put a Crocodile execution on the table instead of Flamingo.

RIP Meerkat... A great writeup though. See, I'm inclined to vote Flamingo right out of the gate because that seems like Lurcher protection, and unless there's good reason for it behind the scenes, that making me feel like V!Coinshot with a Spiked team that has protects.

For future reference, the voting for the end of cycle: At 2 hours to go: Vote Tally (4) Lion: Crocodile, Meerkat, Rhino, Chameleon (4) Chameleon: Toucan, Elephant, Weasel, Scorpion (3) Flamingo: Swan, Mouse, Falcon (1) Dragonfly: Hyena (1) Penguin: Flamingo 120 min: (Lion: 5, Cham: 3, Flam: 3) - Weasel moves from Chameleon to Lion 60 min: (Lion: 5, Cham: 4, Flam: 3) - Flamingo moves from Penguin to Chameleon 35 min: (Lion: 6, Cham: 4, Flam: 2) - Mouse moves from Flamingo to Lion 28 min: (Lion: 7, Cham: 4, Flam: 2) - Ostrich votes on Lion 02 min: (Lion: 7, Cham: 5, Flam: 1) - Swan moves from Flamingo to Chameleon 01 min: (Lion: 8, Cham: 5, Flam: 1) - Hyena moves from Dragonfly to Lion 01 min: (Lion: 8, Cham: 4, Flam: 2) - Swan moves from Chameleon to Flamingo

Interesting, we had soother action on Chameleon too

Thanks for pointing that out. Vote Tally (Detailed) (0) Swan: Crocodile {1}, Flamingo {1} (4) Lion: Crocodile {3}, Meerkat {1}, Rhino {3}, Chameleon {2} (4) Flamingo: Swan {1}, Rhino {1}, Scorpion {1}, Mouse {1}, Falcon {1} (0) Weasel: Crocodile {2} (0) Mouse: Toucan {1} (4) Chameleon: Toucan {2}, Rhino {2}, Elephant {1}, Weasel {1}, Scorpion {2} (1) Dragonfly: Chameleon {1}, Hyena {1} (1) Penguin: Flamingo {2} Vote Tally (4) Lion: Crocodile, Meerkat, Rhino, Chameleon (4) Chameleon: Toucan, Elephant, Weasel, Scorpion (3) Flamingo: Swan, Mouse, Falcon (1) Dragonfly: Hyena (1) Penguin: Flamingo

It's an indication that maybe they're coasting under the radar, and it's less than the other candidates of that sort. My suspicion of you was detailed in the previous post - when I looked at the D1 & D2 voting patterns, both times you (and Mouse) stood out as notable. If there was blatant elim movement anywhere in the D1 voting, it was you - with 7 minutes left in the cycle, your vote on Mouse put them in a 3-5 way tie (don't recall off the top of my head where it was at). But you move your vote across to Kangaroo, putting Kangaroo in that multiway tie instead. The only other vote with potential for active elim intent was Dragonfly's but given that affected V/V it's less notable than your saving of Mouse in that situation. And then D2, the execution wasn't locked in to Heron until your vote, made doubly so by Mouse. I was getting enough of a village vibe of your more recent posts I think it was that I was less inclined to vote you over another option though. Was working on one already. We've a 3 way tie on 4 votes between Lion, Flamingo, and Chameleon at this stage, if I've gotten that correct. Vote Tally (Detailed) (0) Swan: Crocodile {1}, Flamingo {1} (4) Lion: Crocodile {3}, Meerkat {1}, Rhino {3}, Chameleon {2} (4) Flamingo: Swan {1}, Rhino {1}, Scorpion {1}, Mouse {1}, Falcon {1} (0) Weasel: Crocodile {2} (0) Mouse: Toucan {1} (4) Chameleon: Toucan {2}, Rhino {2}, Elephant {1}, Weasel {1}, Scorpion {2} (1) Dragonfly: Chameleon {1}, Hyena {1} (1) Penguin: Flamingo {2} Vote Tally (4) Lion: Crocodile, Meerkat, Rhino, Chameleon (4) Flamingo: Swan, Scorpion, Mouse, Falcon (4) Chameleon: Toucan, Elephant, Weasel, Scorpion (1) Dragonfly: Hyena (1) Penguin: Flamingo

Alright, we we go. Ivory Dragonfly Posts: 9 D1: Poke vote leaning into the CR, greets Lion, explains a poke vote, then literal last minute votes Dingo. N1: Explains last minute post as being panicked, and didn't really express the reason why - stated reason now was "more sus of Dingo's sus of Falcon" suggesting it sounded like E!Dingo trying to make a counter wagon on V!Falcon. Maybe E!Dragonfly reading what they'd do into Dingo's actions? D2: Does play-by-play vote analysis of D1. Actually quite like the work done there. Also getting people to post reads is nice. Unless just playing to standard role, it's a good village type activity to encourage. Finally jumps on Heron train before then final push for the Falcon counter wagon. Am concerned that activity has dropped off a bit, but D2 feels a pretty strong cycle for them. Undecided. Probably not my first choice of execution. I'll have to check why people are actually voting on them. Sunburst Toucan Posts: 12 D1: Some RP, mentions getting PM'd by people, shares some reads via RP, votes Iguana. N1: Updates their reads through RP D2: Sus's me for not activetly engaging with the game though I make some basic posts, updates their reads. Votes Rhino, considering Wesel, Flamingo, and Heron as alternatives. N2: Does a Vote Play-by-Play for D2. Given my own inclination towards them, I do appreciate the work done), and posts some suspicions based on that work. D3: Does act on N2's sus list. My vibes read on them had been positive anyway, but that hasn't changed particularly. Onyx Flamingo Posts: 14 D1: RP intro, pokes Penguin. D2: Shares some thoughts based on D1, votes Swan, suses Heron and Albatross. D3: The deal around the role claim having survived the Coinshot. Starts doing player reads, gets as far as Scorpion, Mouse, Hyena. Feeling okay about their posts, just the matter of the reaction to surviving the CS kill. But I think I buy their reasoning. Pearl Chameleon Posts: 8 D1: Pokes Hyena, suggests they'll PM everyone, though doesn't end up doing so. N1: Apologises for not sending PMs, says they'll do so eventually, though still not sure they have? D2: Says they won't be on much through cycle, throws a vote on Heron for gut reasons. N2: GIves some reads based on D1 D3: Explains D1 and their later time being busy. Votes Dragonfly due to their "opportunistic and careful posts". So interesting thoughts perhaps. Not a lot to say about Chameleon I suppose... >> ... For reference, post counts (as of N2) Highly Active: Mouse (18), Hyena (25), Croc (16), Rhino (17), Meerkat (31) Moderately Active: Albatross (13), Scorpion (9), Weasel (9), Dragonfly (9), Flamingo (9), Toucan (9) Low Active: Penguin (3), Swan (5), Falcon (5), Ostrich (2), Lion (8), Chameleon (7), Elephant (6) ... I'd be sort of interested to see a break down of how much all the various reads shared by players align with each other. I'll tackle it when I'm next on if I'm able to if no one else has done so by then. ... Vote Tally (Detailed) (1) Swan: Crocodile {1}, Flamingo {1} (2) Lion: Crocodile {3}, Meerkat {1} (4) Flamingo: Swan {1}, Rhino {1}, Scorpion {1}, Mouse {1}, Falcon {1} (0) Weasel: Crocodile {2} (0) Mouse: Toucan {1} (2) Chameleon: Toucan {2}, Rhino {2} (2) Dragonfly: Chameleon {1}, Hyena {1} ... So I think based on all that, and what I've skimmed of thread, going to put down a vote on Chameleon for now, although I need a little more time to think a little more and read D3 properly, though I'll do that once I've slept. At this stage I'd be fine with shifting to Croc, or perhaps Lion as I'd probably agree with Meerkat as far as their lurkiness. Vote Tally (Detailed) (4) Flamingo: Swan, Scorpion, Mouse, Falcon (3) Chameleon: Toucan, Rhino, Elephant (2) Dragonfly: Chameleon, Hyena (2) Lion: Crocodile, Meerkat (1) Swan: Flamingo

To actually finish the thought, AG4 had 30 players with 5 elims, which included a thug and a mistborn on the evil team, with a village coinshot. So not so many more player, though I'd agree 4 + thug might make more sense. Though the 34 players of AG3 had 6 spiked plus a thug, lurcher and two mistborn to the one village coinshot (no mistborn), which does feel high to me. In those types of distro, does feel like V!CS = at least 1 E!Thug, or E!CS = multiple V!Thugs, but then LG1 and AG1 had V!CS with no E!Thugs... Whatever the case, if a look at previous AG distros helps at all, there's the breakdowns. ... Just highlighting we've not heard from @Charcoal Hyena, @Chartreuse Penguin, @Fuchsia Ostrich, or @Ivory Dragonfly yet, with only Hyena of those having posted during the last night cycle. Ostrich just hasn't been online, but the rest have been online this cycle. ... C1 Reads Slight village: Tuatara, Falcon Undecided: Meerkat Watching Closely: Croc, Toucan, Slight elim: Dragonfly, Scorp, Flamingo C2 Reads Slight village: Falcon Undecided: Meerkat Watching Closely: Croc, Toucan, Tuatara Slight elim: Dragonfly, Scorp, Flamingo ... Players under threat of execution C1: Hyena, Mouse, Dingo, Penguin, Iguana, Kangaroo C2: Heron, Falcon, Flamingo, Rhino, Dragonfly, Weasel There was a 3 way tie at 19 hours remaining in C1 - Hyena, Dingo, Penguin. It went away for a few hours (due to Meerkat, Heron, and Dingo) before being restored by Meerkat, where it remains until 10 hours remaining, where it becomes 4 way with Mouse, and then 5 way with Scorpion with 6 hours remaining. At 3.5 hours remaining Hyena is removed by Tuatara, Croc swaps Kangaroo in for Mouse at 7 minutes to go, Dingo puts Iguana in the lead, before being tied with Dingo by Dragonfly. To me, if there's any elim action then, it's E/E Croc and Mouse, with Dragonfly's last minute panic being weird. So I think I'll have a close look at Croc and Mouse then. (Notes here that Croc when rushed in C2 with 2 hours to go thought they had a vote down on Mouse) Regarding C2, hard to comment on whether there was any real threat to any elims causing vote movement. At 10 hours to go, vote tally according to Meerkat was: (EDIT: Actually, Meerkat missed Toucan's vote on me) 9.5 hours - Rhino moves to Flamingo 9 hours - Meerkat moves to Heron (2 way tie with Weasel) 8.5 hours - Mouse votes on Rhino, Toucan moves to Rhino (3 way tie with Weasel and Heron), 8 hours - Mouse moves to Flamingo (removes Rhino from tie, now just Weasel and Heron), Scorpion votes on Heron (Heron 1-vote lead) 7.5 hours - Meerkat moves to Flacon, dropping Heron back to a tie with Weasel 7 hours - Chameleon votes on Heron, putting them back in the lead 5 hours - Meerkat locks in the lead by moving back to Heron, 5 hours - Tuatara moves to Flamingo, tying Heron and Flamingo 4.5 hours - Flamingo votes Swan 4 hours - Tuatara moves to Dragonfly, putting Heron in the lead again 3 hours - Rhino moves to Dragonfly 2 hours - Croc "moves" to Heron from the Mouse vote they never placed, locking Heron in first place 1.5 hours - Mouse moves to Heron There's a bunch of work put in to trying to execute Falcon instead, but I'm not sure how much that matters when Heron was locked but flipped village. So any overt elim action feels like it would be in these sequences of votes. Weasel and Rhino were under some threat, though Weasel more than others, but that's still pretty early. Later, there's already a lead, but as shown by Tuatara, not so hard to break that lead. Only vote movement of note here though is Croc and Mouse, putting Weasel, Flamingo, and/or Rhino out of any danger. I do find it somewhat interesting that Croc and Mouse have ended up together again as PoI when looking at the voting that happened both previous cycles albeit for a different reason. So feels like if there's anything, we've a situation of E!Croc voting E!Mouse for distancing purposes later, but needing to save them last minute from the tie in C1, while using C2 to lock in a villager so as to avoid any last minute chaos. Otherwise, it's feeling from the votes that if we've got V!Croc, then Hyena, Penguin, and Scorpion are likely village, and there's just random Elim voting or inactivity, looking more like [Weasel, Dragonfly, Toucan, Flamingo, Chameleon, Falcon, Meerkat, Elehpant] are the pool of voting C1 elims. Of those, Weasel and Falcon didn't vote C2, so I'd think that [Dragonfly, Toucan, Flamingo, Chameleon, Meerkat] more likely, removing myself from the list also. So from all that, we end up back up in a similar place to my vibe reads, although having flagged Mouse and Chameleon for further investigation. Will say that V!Croc could still leave E!Mouse as a possibility. As this has already got quite long, going to look at Croc and Mouse first, post it, and then review the others later. ... Croc So I think where I stand is even though I probably get a mild village vibe because I like some of the content, particularly from this cycle, I don't know that I could necessarily give a village read just yet. I'd be okay with putting a vote down on them I think, if no other better options arise. Mouse So on the whole, feels fairly light as far as contribution (I say this being aware I've made even less posts than they have...) So I feel like both Croc and Mouse have the opportunity of evil more than any particular elim leaning, with there maybe being a slightly more stronger lean towards E/E than V/E or E/V. Not putting a vote down just yet, as I do want to do a proper look at the aforementioned others first. ... The next night and day, the daily newspaper annotation before a snooze became something of a habit, though Ciril started to find that he did seem to be trending towards longer periods of focus. He had yet to work out how to avoid the collapse into porridge when falling a sleep. He really need to work out how to achieve the skill of sleeping upright. It was as he then mused further on whether learning to sleep with eyes opened could be leveraged into working while sleeping that his head fell forwards as he nodded off. Mercifully, he missed the soup on the way down. EDIT: Apologies for the ping Hyena, you posted while I was prepping this and I forgot to go back and review that.

Feels like an opportunity to dive into the past AG role distros.

I don't think I'm willing to support either a Heron or Falcon execution. Seems like the Falcon execution is half opportunistic counter-wagon to Heron based on Ostrich sussing them, and I disagree with the complaints raised against Falcon's first points. Heron I feel is an option based on Croc's sussing of them them, but I'm satisfied with Heron's response on the whole. I know voting on anyone at this stage literally does nothing, but if I had to execute someone today it would be Scorpion, sorta just based on the vibes I'm getting from their posts.