Salmon Meerkat

Looking at the results, I'm actually surprised - I was running off Hael's near EoD count and had a near 4/4 in my head for Lion/Cham. That was a last minute pile-on. I'm trying to make sense of the train dynamics here. Anyway, the reaction test deal I was sitting on. Evil Tineye message was a reaction test. I cannot swear hand in heart that the Tineye in question is Village but that is where my credences currently are. Here are the categories of responses, tagged for your data viewing pleasure: No Response is a distinctive tier because Lion lurked in the thread and did not respond, and then later engaged with the message. Distinctively, like me, Lion is the only player in question who suggested that the Tineye might be Village. Croc spent a distinctive amount of time paranoiding and giving me crack two Evil Tineye theories in PMs. Mouse, on prompting, thought it was funny. Weasel cursorily engaged with it, Ele and Falcon made some solving attempts. I am willing to believe Falcon, Croc, and Ele are Village at this juncture, which tells us something about the tier distribution. I had TMI and I knew it was coming. If I'm right to believe the Tineye in question is Village, I'm not fond of Lion's response because it's distinctive, and then later matches mine, and my response is classic TMI! This is on top of Lion's consistent disengagement from the thread and refusal to vote, e.g. Lion susing Croc D2 but refusing to cast a vote, and Lion promising but never delivering an ISO and lurking. The main factor I'm trying to make sense of is the train dynamics, especially since there was an eight vote train on Lion, though IDK. Reaction test mention was delayed mostly because my brain was trying to sort out Dragonfly and Flamingo, I had hopes Lion would show up and improve my read, and also because I was unsure about divulging this without permission, but at the end when I had a gut V on Cham and thought the trains were close, felt it was worth at least throwing out there. I'm mentioning this now as well for thoughts, since Lion survived. It's just another thing about Lion that bugs me at this juncture. Edited to add: The wonderful concept of multi-tasking when we can do both that and finding Spiked at the same time

Steel, you are very anonymous.

But.... But....... Ilu you're best GM

>> I'm getting serious flashbacks to AG8 here. Edited to add: @Elandera, @Devotary of Spontaneity, Can we have the final vc please?

....Between Flamingo and Lion I'd probably go Lion. I just have a good gut vibe off Cham. I can't defend it. I might be wrong. But I'm not willing to go for Cham and it's def based on who I think they are so /shrug Lion's reaction test reaction was worse. I'm staying put. Yes sorry I should probably have said this earlier but distracted + permission.

In commute on mobile so have to be brief, happy to substantiate later. Problem with you is I have been going all over the place and can't see your actions as making sense for V you or E you. Lack of selfpres potentially a good look but came four hours prior to EoD and never substantially tested. Weasel v DF still odd Good responsiveness to questions on posts but fundamentally responsive and chronic side train voter Picked up analysis this cycle, ISOs in theory good look, checking conclusions, aspect of being fundamentally reactionary to accrued sus Night lurker Coinshot pool point about lack of proactiveness That I'm open to V you or confused enough is the main reason I haven't joined your train at present.

That's one of the reasons I've been a bit ? about Weasel votes, though that puts me in agreement with Flamingo on that point. In that I could see V!Weasel being an opportunistic LHF train for Spiked: promissory posts with no real contribution beyond warm body, static vote on lethal train. But it does require me to be more convinced of V!Weasel than I think I currently am. My first response would be ? about voting with a speed read, but in the context of this post, fair enough. I'll be upfront and say I sort of weakly lean gut Village on this at the moment even though I have absolutely no reasonable basis on which to make this inference, and it's probably going to come bite me in the meerkatcheeks one day when it comes to this particular player.

What's influencing your Weasel view? My problem with Weasel is I don't find anything they've done particularly Villagery minus their attitude towards the Evil Tineye. As listed in my reads, I'm mostly held back by the likelihood of the Dingo kill from a Weasel team but have also hit the point where I don't know if I am writing off too much from Weasel in light of that single point. Plus, teammate kill meta swamping also exists.

Well, if this further helps: I actually wasn't looking all that closely at every post for a decent chunk of the Night and D2 since I was preparing for my exam and trying not to get overly drawn into thread solving, since that's a distraction and the exam should come first ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ N1 Dragonfly said "I panicked" and I figured maybe it checked out tonally with their use of caps when they were defending themselves in that post and went on past it. It came back into my head both last Night and today when I was re-reading the thread again and Dragonfly's vote-by-vote analysis to try to understand if I was paranoiding on them, and then today, I decided that it didn't really make sense to me. Largely to do with the mention of speedskimming and voting buried at the bottom of Dragonfly's vote by vote analysis, which was a re-evaluation primed by PMs. Why did it only come into my head at this point? No idea. The Meerkat brain works in mysterious ways, or maybe doesn't work at all. Thought Process: "Huh, that's odd. Why would you speedread and vote?" "Actually yeah didn't Dragonfly say they panicked?" "Actually come to think of it, why do you panic if you don't have a horse in the race?" "And if you do, why are you speedreading to slam a vote down on Dingo?" Minimally, I at least want to pressure them for this because it doesn't really fit for me. Where are you on them right now?

Because I've had the E!Dragonfly world at the back of my head - I just don't usually think it's worth revising unless the balance of considerations kick me there. Part of this was PM conversations with Hyena and Tuat - I am a simple man and tend to prefer the direct rather than paranoid read. Direct read: V/V, no reason for Elim to care, therefore V!Dragonfly. Paranoid read: E!Dragonfly is metascrewing, or Dingo was killed to make Dragonfly look more V. PM conversations with Hyena - I flag this because I PMed Hyena D2 to ask them why the Dingo flip makes Dragonfly look less Village to them. IMO, the intuitive read is the other way around. It's a counterintuitive statement, so I ask Hyena about it. Their response is they feel Dingo may have been killed to increase Dragonfly's Village cred. Fine. I press them on it as I feel it's a tad paranoid, and I'm suspicious in the early game of players who want to focus on paranoid possibilities - it denies us intuitive clears and makes it hard to establish progress in the game so it's not a level I like to think on. They agree it is but think it's worth considering all possibilities and say they are still overall V on Dragonfly. Fair enough, and they seem sincere about it. Then, Tuat and I are PMing especially as D2 goes on and we both suspect you for more or less the same reasons. Dragonfly comes up as another player Tuat wants to switch to. I ask Tuat why he's suspicious of Dragonfly. Especially since there's a naked vote in thread. He flags Dragonfly's D2: performativity - attempts to stir discussion with little interest in it, and that he doesn't like Dragonfly's votes. I look at it and shrug and kind of agree, or at least commit to rethink Dragonfly, but mostly my bandwidth is on whether Heron is Evil or not. Part of this, I'll be fair, is that I trust Tuat's instincts, and if he sees something, I'm willing to give that a shot in my head. I'll note is a point that has to do with who I think Tuat is, and how we've played together previously. I look at Dragonfly again during the Night. Suppose I bracket the credences from the vote being a counterintuitive place for an Elim to be - after all, we've had Elims who metascrew before. As I pointed out in my post this cycle, E!Stick in LG91 famously made a vote D1 that an Elim shouldn't have interest in by voting at the last second to try to tiebreak on a V/V EoD train. If I bracket those, then yeah, I'm much less likely to believe in V!Dragonfly. Then there's the open question: do I let that one D1 vote swamp everything to the point it more or less clears Dragonfly for me? Sometimes the answer is yes. In this case, my current feel of it is that the answer is no. Part of this has to do with where my existing reads have fallen. I note your own view of Dragonfly is that their D2 EoD vote is either gutsy Elim or Villager, and you've apparently decided N2 it was a gutsy Elim vote. The short and snarky answer is that it's called belief revision, and if you think E!me would be caught so easily running backwards on a read, I have lerasium to sell you.

To expand discussion a bit more before I go back to seeking an .iloc god because StackExchange hates me today: I think I now understand where you are coming from. My response is we're sort of talking past each other here. I'm asking the question because I do want to know the answer, but am also inviting input. It's really part of a sanity check: of course, I have my own Village reads, some of my suspicions, and I'm worried that when I put them together and interpolate with D1 voting, there's no coherent picture. This implies there's probably something wrong with my picture of D1, and my point of phrasing it is to invite discussion in the hopes someone else has a better picture, or equally wonky. This matters to me because Flamingo is one of the players for whom my analysis throws up as being potentially Evil on D1 but also doesn't work well with my current picture of the D1 situation. So the background stakes here for me are something like this: do I pressure Flamingo more? Revise that read? Do I remain on Lion? (Current choice.) Do I take this as a sign something is wrong with my Dragonfly/Weasel reads? What? If there's a mistake and I'm reading as Village someone I shouldn't be, then maybe the thread can spot that and I can go pressure them instead. We're somewhat past Rollovet but I don't see a reason to not try to revise my reads and/or make them make sense. I do feel coherence is a basic commonsense check that is worth running on your reads and that's what's motivating the question for me. I'd say the bigger problem is all of those don't particularly make sense from a Villager mindset. If you're Mistborn, you'd have to have gotten Iron last Night and decided self-protecting from a presumably Village-side (at the very least, even if E!Coinshot, they have to make their kill patterns pass off as Village) kill was worth it, and then gotten Thug today. Otherwise, similar ballpark problem as the Lurcher, which I've already spelled out. Thug-wise, the issue is that the greatest strength of a Thug comes from drawing the Elim kill and forcing them to waste tempo. Playing into the Coinshot suspect pool does the exact opposite of this. Anyway, exam at 2145hrs today, so life is wonderful, but I'll list out a few thoughts on players/reads I currently have, non-systematic, non-ordered. If you're not in here, probably a null. Mouse: Village with LIGHT confidence. I like Mouse's D2, she''s busy today, I don't take the question point as being AI as I believe players make this mistake anyway, acknowledge Toucan has a point about the vote, but overall feel that Mouse's tone is pure, her irritation is earnest, and she feels like she is genuinely trying to solve the game. Mouse v. Crocodile D2 fight felt more like Villagers hyperfocusing. Acknowledge this read might not supersede voting patterns, but am not focusing on her today. Noted potential connection to Croc. Hyena: Village with MODERATE confidence. I acknowledge they are busy IRL. There is a chance they might have pocketed me but their thoughts in PMs are consistent with a solving Villager. I also still genuinely like the consistency of their D1 and feel the clash with Tuatara had a very strong V/V feel to it in terms of Hyena's response to Tuat about suspicious behaviour still being suspicious. Don't feel E!Hyena stands their ground here. I read D2 EoD as being more V for Hyena than E: I don't think E!Hyena is coherent unless you believe E!Falcon, and even in an E!Falcon world, I'd argue Hyena wouldn't be indecisive in the thread as a bus/save decision had to be made in doc. Indecision in a close exe with vocal players like Tuat (flipped Village) and Ostrich disliking the vote makes me more willing to believe the player is Village. Crocodile: Go back and forth on this guy. Good go-getterness, solving - acknowledge E!Croc would do this anyway. Village with LIGHT confidence. Clash with Mouse D2 feels V/V to me. A bit unsettled by some of his votes but am ok with V!Croc for the moment. Very mild Village credit for eagerness to take NK as being indicative of V!Flamingo. Noted potential connection to Mouse. Falcon: Village with MODERATE confidence. Single-mindedness a good look; Elims would be more cautious. Not going to elaborate on this Ele: Village with MODERATE confidence. Willingness to solve and engage (admittedly more in PMs), thread posts on low side but consistent so far, inconsistency in reads and actions reflective of a paranoia I consider more fundamentally Village/fog-of-war-tainted. Swan: Village with LIGHT confidence. I acknowledge this is a powerfully meta read, meaning if I am wrong about Swan being Seonid, this possibly crumbles. Still: C1 a good look/match for their V meta, I am reasonably confident in my ability to read them (famous last words), and inconsistency in reads reflective of a paranoia I consider more fundamentally Village/fog-of-war-tainted. Cham: No real read, leaning EVIL. Disengagement so far not a good look, but hope to hear more from them. Not sure about their Heron vote. INTERROGATE Penguin: No real read, leaning NULL. Disengagement so far not a good look, but hope to hear more from them. Nonchalance towards being D1 train is ? Rhino: Leaning chaotic. Feels somewhat pure, gut Village but am troubled by the fact I can't really make up my mind on them. Weasel: Village with MILD (less than LIGHT) confidence. Weasel's disengagement and dgaf is not very inspiring and as I've said a few times, I actually sympathise with the votes on him. But I also don't know that I'd agree E!Weasel wouldn't be asked by his team to tone down, or if a Weasel team agrees to kill Dingo. HMM for that, maybe. Maybe I'm giving Weasel too much grace for that. IDK. REVISE??? Lion: Leaning EVIL. Disengagement not a good look. Consistent thread lurker but non-participant. Chooses to engage on peripheral issues which might be indicative of a genuine difficulty forming suspicions, and thus potentially Evil. Ostrich: Gut Village with MILD confidence. I gut read Ostrich very powerfully as Village for their D2 post but am troubled by the fact that at that point, I was also suspicious of Falcon. I liked the way Ostrich verbalised an existing discomfort with the trains but also feel it'll have to relate to Flamingo's alignment in part. Need to revisit in light of my V!Falcon credences. REVISE Toucan: Village with MILD confidence. Liked Toucan's early D1, feel Toucan preparing to flip Dingo N1 is a good look, recognise I might be giving Toucan too much credit for that. Not sure how I feel about Toucan flagging both Croc and Mouse for the questions on the kill - if Toucan is as much a Tyrian veteran as I am from what he suggests, then he must surely know that questions about the kill come up every single Tyrian run and have to be clarified. This could be part of a Tyrian drinking game, along with Emotional Allomancy questions. Agree Toucan later flagged voting pattern but vote was couched as based on something I minimally consider NAI if not very mildly Village in the case of Croc. REVISE??? Alb: No real read and I probably should have one. Commit to re-read later after exam suffering has ended. Recall their Falcon bus theory was ??? and I don't really know where it comes from. READ Dragonfly: Leaning EVIL. Less willing to revise back to null than before. I do feel their D1 vote is - prima facie - a good look, but they made it clear it wasn't informational or tie-chasing but a vote they had investment in, and that they speedread the thread and thought Dingo was Evil. It's a mindset I'm struggling to understand as being Village. Suspending any credit from their D1, I feel their D2 is more low investment / ??? than anything: they posted a vote progression analysis which I'm minded to give mild effort credit for, but don't feel they bothered to really interact or engage with suspicions. They started with Weasel and Heron on their suspicions, sort of stayed in the background after asking for the 1/1/1 reads, and their two votes were on both their starting suspicions. Zero engagement with the reads Dragonfly asked for, one PM on Rhino being confusing. It feels more static and showy to me than something that demonstrates Villager engagement with the game as it is. Acknowledge possibility am tunnelling now but feel Dragonfly minimally merits pressure. Flamingo: I think I've said everything I want to about Flamingo at this point, honestly. Leaning EVIL but require D2 re-read: acknowledge that Flamingo not self-pressing D2 is a good look but situation changes in a Thug!Flamingo world, especially given it was four hours to EoD. Question if Villager would feel pressure to self-pres especially if not on at EoD. Do not remember if Flamingo was present at EoD. Side-train vote is a place for an Elim to be if, as I suspect, it was a V/V cycle, will take the point there were also lots of non-voters, and that the 6/5 trains are worth a look. Scorp: Leaning Village but need to commit to re-read D2. Felt their dgaf in placing a vote invalidated by post three minutes before reflects a disregard for optics more consistent with a Villager mindset, and liked their EoD anti-VM attitude, but no strong view and feel this read can be invalidated by player meta. READ/REVISE??? That's it for me, if you have any thoughts and prayers left please send them to my R^2 score which is currently still in the dumps If you see me on this thread and posting before 12 hours to rollover, please yell at me for my own sanity because I really need to focus on the exam and not be distracted with trying to work this out :/

Exhibit A: (1) (2) (3) My two clips on Flamingo: 1. I don't read Flamingo's current attitude as being fundamentally Village. In fact, I read it as more Evil than anything. Given the existence of two Smokers, a putative Village CS, and no vote manip, I think there's plausible reason to suggest Flamingo is not hiding anything that is not already known. I also point out that contra Crocodile, self-protecting in this particular set of circumstances isn't Village. You are arguing if Flamingo is a V!L that Flamingo chose to lurk in the thread at Night, saw the suspicions raised on him, decided not to interact with them, decided to self-protect, and decided, therefore, to persist with the suspicion on him, which might have led to the very CS shot he then had to block. You don't have to go all out and appear super Village. You just need to allay enough suspicion to not get shot so you can try to stop the NK. I don't see this attitude making sense for a Villager. See: Exhibit A. 2. I acknowledge the main reason I'm hesitating to vote Flamingo but still feel he deserves pressure is that I feel Flamingo's C1 vote is a candidate for an Evil profile vote (dgaf ascended train), but also don't see it quite making sense in light of what the train landscape looks like and my other suspicions, e.g. Dragonfly and Lion. 3. I feel the Heron train only really gained momentum at the point Flamingo was the CW. I'm comfortable with V!Falcon right now, but believe that Flamingo as the Heron CW needs to be interrogated. The Evil profile point and #3 were my reasons for putting Flamingo up among my candidates and suspicions on N2. I don't really see their role changing the consideration. What I am doing is pointing out if they are a Lurcher, which we have no way of knowing, then their behaviour skews quite a bit more Evil, and that I don't read their reticence in a positive light right now. Edited to add: The thing is, one way or another, I don't want this cycle to be just about Flamingo. So consider this the last I want to say on Flamingo. Still interested in Lion and Dragonfly, no strong read on Cham but dislike how they've been out of it, and as much as Weasel's lack of interest in finding Elims isn't great, I don't know if I see an Elim team with Weasel on it killing Dingo or not advising Weasel to dial it down. I'll add that I am okay with my Village reads on Mouse and Croc for now. I think Mouse's reactions to Toucan feel rather pure, I'm concerned by the fact I don't think Toucan is Evil, as I feel punted back towards quiet players, and IDK how comfortable I should feel with that assumption. Yeah, that's my worry. My problem I think is I have good reads on some/more of the voters but that might reflect a bias - as Illwei said in a game a long time ago, "It's that simple: post and get Village read." But I am worried about the fact I can't currently offer a coherent team guess. It's a bit early, but it suggests one of my reads is wrong somewhere.

My point is, where are they in the voting? Top wagons against Villagers usually implies sidetrain or non-voting Elims, but if the Elims are heavily concentrated in non-voters from D1, we're looking at a highly inactive Elim team. My credences also suggest the sidetrains are by and large clean so I'm having difficult identifying a coherent Elim team. I'm confused why you think this isn't a question that needs to be asked. If they voted, they should be identifiable. But Dragonfly isn't making a tie for the fun of it. Dragonfly made a tie because he claimed he panicked and suspected Dingo. The two aren't the same. I don't see how your argument is the same. You're equating lurking and voting here. Lurking isn't the same as voting. I consider voting to be more suspicious because it's a deliberate action, whereas stunlocking or apathy happens. I point out to you as well that you're ignoring this would be the correct take on E!Stick on D1 of LG91. Elims do occasionally tiebreak even in a V/V EoD and I'm surprised that a player who screws with meta the way you do doesn't consider this a point that some Elim will eventually take advantage of. I'd dismissed this earlier because E!Stick broke a tie by voting to defend V!Books and we all agreed that looked Village until we caught her for different reasons, and then understood this was a result of her feeling obligated to defend her Village read. Dragonfly made no such prior obligations. My argument is that what Dragonfly says about his EoD doesn't hang well together. I don't see what reason V!Dragonfly has to panic, speedread the thread, and cast a vote that brought Dingo into contention as a result of it. My point is that if you're a Villager who feels obligated to vote, you're probably going to avoid the lead trains and just slot in. I also don't see why you'd explicitly panic or rush without investment. But that being said, I am honestly okay with voting Lion. I'm not comfortable with the minimal presence Lion has despite lurking, and I feel that at this point, Lion's engagement with the game is minimal and largely peripheral, e.g. Tineye message, claiming, with little comment on the trains. This reads like the sweet spot for a disengaged Elim to be in. Edited to add: @Mauve Crocodile - I feel that even if you believe that the EoD argument isn't convincing, you at least have to agree in light of Elim tiebreaking/tieforming that it can't be considered exculpatory in itself. I think there are reasons behind the circumstance of Dragonfly's vote to at the very least be sceptical of how pure it really was. And Dragonfly's D2 doesn't look so great to me. Dragonfly's request for 1/1/1 looks good on the surface but Dragonfly doesn't follow through and functionally nothing comes of that. They don't engage with the responses, really, which suggests that they can't be given Village credit for it because it's not actually an interest in stimulating discussion. Unless I'm mistaken, they were also the last voter on Heron, and one of the stranger ones. On top of that, their pushing Weasel D2, as I've argued - I'm sympathetic to that vote, but Flamingo themselves note that this is an odd view to take as Weasel is unlikely to be behind a Dingo N1 kill. Flamingo suspects Alb for this line of reasoning, but not Dragonfly, which I find odd, but want to also point out that if credit for D1 is suspended, then the picture changes drastically.

Let me sharpen the point. (Sorry exam sleep debt incoherence. It's just dominating my life right now :sob: ) I maintain that as a Villager, you only really panic at EoD if you think a Villager is about to be lynched. If you don't, or you suspect or have the trains as nulls, then you're either cool with the results or you're indifferent. The first problem is that I don't see why Dragonfly should be emotionally invested in D1 EoD to the point of panic. Dragonfly's behaviour is not consistent with V!reading Iguana, and I think that if Dragonfly had, they would've just said so upfront when voting. They also said they misread Dingo when skimming on mobile. I'm struggling to get into that mentality. I slept at 8AM, the day I voted on Heron. I was struggling, @ing people in PMs, throwing a post out in the hopes someone else thinking about the issue could shed some light on it for me, and just trying to force my exhausted brain to stop thinking about SVM models and to make sense of Heron. I get that maybe I'm a bit extreme, but the point stands. Getting the vote right matters to me. I may no longer feel ML guilt the way I used to, but I don't like MLing Villagers anyway. The idea you would just skim om mobile and throw a vote down at EoD and also panic just doesn't make sense to me. You panic if you're invested. If you're invested, why are you skimming? Where's the sense of care and the willingness to get things right? If you're invested, why didn't we see that earlier? The things Dragonfly says don't hang well together. (I'll note there are other points to be made against them, such as that their disinterest in thread discussion (cf. attempting to instigate discussion but not doing anything with it or carrying through), and the Weasel vote, which while I am sympathetic to, also suggests LHF. This potentially dovetails well with why Dingo was N1ed, and Dragonfly's late anchoring of the Heron train.) <Lion, Flamingo, Dragonfly> looks like a decent pool to me at the moment, though I'm not sure it's self-consistent. A problem for a Kjell who isn't oppressed by exams, I would say.

Yeah well about that... What's your view on who Flamingo can be teamed with? I ask because I was just taking a quick look at the C1 votes again (C2 pending when I have time - exam at 9.45PM tomorrow, rollover is at 10AM the day after, so I can at least do it as soon as I am absolved from the suffering) : Iguana train is fairly pure. If we go one step further: If I stick with a more stringent sense of my own Village credences (and let's be honest, I'm not sure if you deserve to be there actually, as this is purely based on a meta read) - then we have a problem IMO. Where are the Elims? I'm sus of Dragonfly and Lion as well but what is Dragonfly's vote then, an IKYK? I had a theory it's to save E!Penguin, but relooking at the timing, E!Flamingo's vote goes onto Penguin five hours after Rollovet: CBA to colour in but Dingo flipped Village and I'm still willing to believe that Hyena is Village. Overall, I'm weakly inclined to believe Flamingo and Penguin are not E/E, given the immobility of the vote (continues through to endgame) and the circumstances of its occurrence. Why not get Penguin to self-pres? You look a lot less awful then. I think this goes back to my comment Whenever ago, time blurs in my head due to exam revisions, that for a significant part of the cycle, <Mouse, Penguin, Hyena, Dingo, Iguana> were stable endgame trains, which reflects a significant amount of comfort with the trains despite potential volatility. Anyway, the vote that looks more questionable to me on revisiting is actually Dragonfly's. Bolding because I'd be cool voting there too. Dragonfly says several things about their EoD vote: -They panicked -They scanned the thread really quickly and misread Dingo But this is a really weird mindset to me. If I'm a Villager, when do I panic at EoD? When someone I Village read is about to be lynched. No sign that Dragonfly Village read Iguana. And if Dragonfly Village read Iguana, then the vote would be simply phrased in terms of "I don't want Iguana to die." But instead, Dragonfly is in a rush to cause a tie and to cast a decisive vote for Dingo. And I can't for the life of me figure out how this makes sense for V!Dragonfly's mindset. To be clear, I don't think E!Dragonfly was trying to save anyone. I have a crack theory it was to save E!Penguin, but again, why not just get Penguin to self-pres? (I guess it's possible Penguin couldn't be around at EoD? I notice their last post D1 is at 0513hrs, when rollover is at 1000hrs.) If we're looking at this theory, there's Lion as well who wasn't around at EoD. Flamingo and Dragonfly are both on at EoD, and it's surprising to me that with seven minutes to go, Flamingo doesn't retract. Unsure if this can point to Flamingo/Dragonfly not E/E? Throwing this to the thread for thoughts. In summation, I don't think Dragonfly's D1 EoD quite makes sense to me. If they don't, we don't know which world we're in. Elims begin the game with more information than us - the whole point is to close the information asymmetry before the Elims can close the numerical asmmetry. The Coinshot issue is the real biggie - again, Beaglegate. I'd argue refusal to help is minimally anti-Village, in which case there's no real reason to ascribe a strong read to you. Waiting for direct game engagement and a vote before I'm keen on moving from Lion.

It's the opposite for me. The Elims know if we are in an E!CS world. They know if they have a Lurcher. They know if they have Thugs. The fact there was a vigkill C1 already tells them there was at least one V!Mistborn if not V!Coinshot, assuming the secondary kill didn't come from them. We don't know any of that. We don't even know Flamingo's alignment. And V and E Coinshot imply very different things about the distro, including the likely existence of a Seeker. Not inclined to look well on Flamingo for this. Edited to add: Like, think about this. In any world where he is V, the Elims are not gonna NK him. Why? Because as long as he's alive and his alignment is a ?, he's a problem for the Village to resolve. The only world in which they remotely consider going after him again is if they believe he is a Lurcher. Likelihood? Low. Flamingo was lurking in the thread last Night, and his name was brought up only a few times in the Coinshot candidates. Moreover, he was lurking in the thread. So instead of posting to alleviate suspicions and not die, Lurcher!Flamingo decides that the correct move is to continue to lurk, and then self-protect. Instead of posting, giving people a better sense of his alignment, and then trying to block the NK. So instead, we have Tuat, a consensus Village read and a fairly obvious kill target dead, and Flamingo still a ? today. (If Flamingo is Village for you, great. But I think there are some questions there.) I don't see a world in which a V Lurcher protects Flamingo and not Tuat. Anyone paying attention should've gone for Tuat. I've explained the alignment problems associated with Flamingo self-protecting: that is, this isn't very Village behaviour. So the most obvious outcome is Thug. So what's gained from hiding this? The Elims start the game with better distro info than we do, and Flamingo was never going to be double-killed in a reasonable world. The only world in which he is a Lurcher is a world in which his behaviour looks hella sus and probably Evil. All in all, I don't see why a Villager wouldn't want to clear the air, especially if that has knock-on effects on distro plausibility, cf. Beaglegate in the AG last year where on seeing drektonnes of Thugs and Lurchers, the Village very quickly understood something was hinky with the CS. I also currently am comfortable with my Lion vote as I'm uncomfortable with the extent to which Lion has been lurking and reluctant to participate.

Opening up with Lion. From looks of it, since message count remains the same, our Spanish troll is basically the same as the Tineye who impersonated Rhino. Comfortable with the notion this looks Evil, though I guess a Village Tineye might have an incentive to impersonate. Not really keen on solving the puzzle - feels like a distraction, when we should be focused on the thread and solving the game.

I low key want to improve my Village read of you for this...

Why are you so sure Flamingo was NKed?

Tyrian convention. If it's written up as anything but coins, it's Spiked. If it involves coins, it's a Coinshot. Flamingo was shot, and Tuat killed.

Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum Tuat. Oh, so it's like that, is it?

[OOC: Hey Seonid. I just want to make clear that you NKed me N1 AG1 for no good reason >> I was a quiet Villager minding my own business and not getting into any PMs and yelling at everyone who tried to PM me and you literally paranoia NKed me. I am squinting at you every single time you talk about the next AG record >>] As we wait out the Night, have some Night music. I'd RP but kind of dead inside now and I am extremely behind on my exam revision.

I'm ordering them in terms of strength, from strongest to weakest. Then from the nulls down, weak to strong again. If you like: Village++, Village+, Village, Null, Evil, Evil-, Evil--, but I don't tend to have Evil-- tiers very often because that reflects a level of certainty I don't often tend to feel in a game. I think it's very likely they did. Or I suppose to put it this way: I've mentioned before that I don't like to assume we have an inactive Elim team until the cards point that way. I will straightforwardly agree that Kas has a similar working methodology to me, and this has caused him problems in previous games this year (QF63, QF64...) but at any rate, he isn't playing so this is my problem now. No no, it's Meerkat or Kjell. Aye. Yeah, that's why I partly feel that there is a certain complacency in allowing the trains to accumulate that points to V Falcon. Again, sure, I am risk averse in a way that makes me poorly map the calculus for Elim teams, but that doesn't feel too right to me. At the same time, I am firm that I do not get a V read off early Falcon, and that is also sufficient to leave them in PoE for me. Currently computing how I feel about Falcon's current post because it is an entirely different game they're seeing. Edited to add: See, you say this: But the thing is, and the whole reason I didn't like that vote, is you can argue you gave clear reasoning for it, but you essentially camped on Dragonfly and had more or less no interaction with the rest of the cycle, vote-wise or post-wise beyond the throwaway question to me. I agree with you about not V reading being a fair reason to fold your hands, but the fact of the matter remains that it was at least a 3/4 Villager EoD, meaning that Elims are likely to be indifferent (Dragonfly aside), and your vote and your posts for the cycle sits in the sweet spot for indifference and little impact on cycle. Barring reason to V read you, that just looks odd. At the moment, given our very, very differing views of the gamestate, I'm inclined to punt you back up to null (null+?), and retract the kill vote: Falcon. I don't think an Elim getting back into the game builds a world that just...doesn't talk/connect across people. I guess I'd be okay with a Flamingo or Lion shot at this point. I still dislike Flamingo's sus of Alb but also peaceful ignoring of how the same reasons impact Dragonfly. Edited to add 2: In the event I'm dead: believe Penguin is an acceptable shot - readslist with little engagement indicates low investment, which should be a warning sign in a V/V train EoD which is where I'm back to on Falcon/Heron. Barring shots, argue they should all face pressure tomorrow.

[OOC: Night voting has historically not been successful. But I think it's worth trying again for two reasons: first, to generate more cover/noise if there is a V Coinshot, and second, to potentially just get more information/discussion out of people. I think Shadow or Turtle remarked once we are lucky to be able to discuss at Night and should use this chance more! These are my current sets of reads: Moderate Village: Light Village: Mild Village: Null: Mild Evil: As such: Dragonfly, possibly Falcon. Goodnight.] Edited to add: Tired and forgot about Swan - happy to put into mild Village, maybe downgrade to null. Shows some interest in reads via PM groups. No strong view of Swan but all in all, drawing more attention than an Elim would like to do N1 with little sign of attempting to leverage on it. Gut Village.

Not that actually. I am reluctant to believe an Elim team would allow it to go to 6-5 if they don't know how much vote manip there was, much less if Heron would self-pres manip, or someone invested enough would save Heron, given the amount of heat surrounding the late lynch. A Rioter alone could drastically affect the result. I don't strongly believe this because I'm aware players have told me multiple times that I am more conservative in risk assessment than a number of Elim teams, but it is a line of reasoning I feel okay with at the moment. I'm interested in the fact there's no other visible vote manip though, given we have two Smoker flips and one Rioter flip at present. Edited to add: 1. I think you had a typo there, it's Meerkat. Or I guess since my identity is not a big secret, Kjell. I know there was a previous old-timer by the name of 'kel' and the 'j' is silent but I am not him, as demonstrated by my knowledge of proper grammar, spelling, and punctuation. 2. I guess I'm trying to understand why it feels like a slip to you. It doesn't to me, but in case you're onto something... 3. If you believe that Croc is working off TMI that there is E vote manip, does this influence your views of the Falcon-Heron endtrain? Edited to add 2: Forgot to tag. @Opal Lion Edited to add 3: Like Ostrich's post last Turn.