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Fifth Scholar

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  1. And lo, the saints sang a resounding chorus of “blegh, I’ve been reading the thread but have had basically no time to post...” Later tonight, I’ll hopefully craft an analysis of a few people. If you’d like to make suggestions, that might be helpful in giving me a bit of a focus. Edit: Got distracted by schoolwork and debates in Discord, which figures. >> Somebody please hold me to analysis of Metabard, Kidpen and Elandera tomorrow.
  2. Perhaps my analysis of those inactives will have to wait. Your concerns are valid, Elandera, as I’ve hardly been on-point this game, but I believe your case against me cherry-picks a little, and is generally indicative of why I remain distrustful of you up to this point. On your note that the Spambots would convert early, this is true, but also slightly IKYK-ish. Converting N1 is a little shortsighted, as your chances of getting a good role are diminished, as are your chances of getting a trusted villager; besides, with the limited data set that D1 provides, unless Alv has particular reason to fear for his life (and I don’t imagine he would), it’d be in the Spambots’ best interest to delay conversion until it became less fraught with the risks that often come with solely relying on D1 information as a guide, such as converting an initially active player who quickly dropped in activity. I think it’s most likely the conversion occurred N2, with the possibility of a N1 convert existent but slim. N1: The information I had at the time was that HH was dead, and a spammer, and has defended Road. Seeing him defend an inactive seemed highly NAI, as I’ve seen plenty of Eliminators (actual Eliminators) attempt to pocket villagers that way. That said, I’ve also seen HH defend teammates like that, so I brought it up with the caveat that it might be nothing, and that defence of an inactive teammate isn’t always the greatest idea, and let others draw their own conclusions. D2: I backed off suspicion on Devotary along with literally almost everybody else who was saying she looked cleaner after Road flipped evil, and that her vote wasn’t to save Guest; this was before the whole controversy with CadCom’s claims, and her being outed as Vodiyehi. It could have been a converted attempt at clearing my name, but it could equally be a village attempt (which it was), so I’m not seeing how you’re drawing AI information from this. In either position, I want to clear my name, so why are you bringing this up? Further, even assuming the Spambots had already used their conversion, why would they choose me? I was scattered and/or less active on D1, hadn’t really contributed much yet, and showed few indicators that I would make a good Eliminator—in addition to the slight suspicion which I was under, I would become a poor conversion target. Would not expressing suspicion of Devotary help clear my name? Also, I never claimed I was reviewing Devotary’s other posts; in fact, I thought that it was clear that again, without the time to do full analysis myself, that others would use the points I was bringing to light to help inform their views on others. In this way, I was hoping to create discussion with the limited time I had. Finally, I feel as though it’s fairly clear the Spambots wanted me lynched, and only fell towards Devotary when things looked inevitable. Characterising a tying vote on me as mere distancing is odd, as is the notion that the village’s top four leading candidates were all evil on the first two days of discussion. It’s interesting that Elandera, who is within this group, is somewhat attempting to deflect suspicion away from it, and towards me. N2: In that post, I actually left both options open (a N1 or N2 conversion), and suggested the Spammers were doing one of the two. As this was fairly early on in the game, I’d disagree with your assessment that I’m somehow misleading the village into assuming a false date of conversion, and was instead pointing out that re-evaluation of everyone would be more necessary. In reference to your point about Aman, you’ve said earlier that you believed the Spambots had Vashikaran, not Beirst, so your pivoting on this is interesting. I’m wondering slightly, at this point, about an Elandera/Bard team. D3: I wrote that post at about an hour past my bedtime, so I never did get to specifying that, but essentially Rand was beginning to focus on inactives, which I felt was a bad idea when so many active players remained alive, and focusing analysis on less-actives tends to kill discussion. N3: It could have, but I had literally no reason to admit I was lying if I was evil, as I could have just said nothing and continued to let the village think I was who I said I was, and claiming the only kill that happened during the Night certainly isn’t something a Spambot would likely do. The only reason I’d felt compelled to claim the previous Night regardless was because Bard had pressured me into doing so, and with a new kill role I really didn’t want to be tampered with, so I claimed something I figured would dissuade Vashikaran from hitting me. To further clarify, my paranoia with Rath wasn’t the Joe claim; that was incidental, and secondary to my true purpose in killing him: I wanted to see if he was using a roleclaim to deflect suspicion from his incredibly suspicious comments at the end of D2 (no offence Rath, and my apologies for your death, but your defence of Devotary did look suspicious), and regardless, with no real details given about the role Rath claimed, I was worried he was using it as a shield against suspicion for those earlier comments. I actually had a kill on Elandera before changing to Rath at the last second, figuring he was slightly more suspicious. Now I’m slightly wishing I’d chosen the other way, as I could have used Elan’s claimed scan to (mostly) clear Rath, but as things stand I unfortunately can’t clear her. Edit: I somehow missed your second post, Elandera, but would add that if I was trying to push lynches on inactives, then I’m doing a terrible job of it. I’ve advocated several times for a focus on more active players and to let the Crusader take out minimally actives, and still believe that’s the ideal policy here.
  3. Well, discussion kind of died, so with nothing better to do I’ll eviscerate Drought’s post. First, as has been mentioned previously, all the village roles so far haven’t been tech-related, but SE-related, and I see little reason why this pattern should have been broken all of a sudden. Second, regardless of whether you’re telling the truth about having a redirect or not, your explanation doesn’t answer to the supposed failure of a multitude of actions against you specifically; you can’t claim having been switched with Beirst, as the switch would have failed because Beirst is immune to everything. As such, unless you’re insinuating that Bard and Fura are lying (and you haven’t denied that the actions against you failed) I see little alternative to you being Beirst, and a Spambot. (It’s worth noting that if you flip good, we can likely lynch Bard for making false claims, but I find the chances of your innocence fairly low at this point.) If the Crusader could target a proven low-activity player tonight, that would be great. I’d like to not waste lynches on people who aren’t really posting, as building cases against them, and trying to catch them in lies, becomes highly annoying with so little content. Finally, letting the Drought lynch kill discussion does nobody any good. Therefore, it’s my hope to get an analysis of each lower-activity player in before the Day concludes.
  4. I’m honoured by your nominations, @Furamirionind and @Straw, but unfortunately I’ll not have the time this year; as one of the more active mods currently, I’ll likely need to devote time here rather to the Championships, and an exam-ridden schedule in May means I’d likely be unable to adequately keep on top of everything regardless were I to join. For my own part, I’d second any of the current nominations, and will additionally submit Wilson, Maill, Young Bard, Sart, Joe and Cadmium Compounder. This seems like quite a few names, but each of these players, to me, stands out as a good, active thinker, in addition to the names already put forwards. Plus, I get the sneaking suspicion some of them might not be active enough to play anyway
  5. It was I who allowed the Alliance to know the location of the shield generator who killed Rath. This means the Spambots did not kill last night, or tried to take out someone that was protected. If any protection roles for the village know there was a failed attack, please say so. Until then, we have the following possibilities: 1) The final Spambots are inactive. 2) The final Spambots had to prove their supposedly village alignment and were thus unable to kill. This also could have happened to anyone in the Joe faction, which is spreading it seems. 3) The target of the Spambots was protected. Why did I lie about my role? I really didn’t want to get roleblocked by Vashikaran, and wanted freedom to choose my kill target. I actually drew an unblockable Coinshot killing role for an MR, and didn’t want interference. Why did I kill Rath? To verify his claims, mostly, and to confirm what we knew about the Joe faction. This also makes Elandera look better slightly by association, though I’m unhappy it did so at the expense of what seems to be a very powerful role.
  6. If we had to lynch one of the three people claiming the conversion role tomorrow, which would people choose? Frankly, I have mild to moderate suspicion on all three of them, Elandera and Rath for their poor positioning on past lynches with Eliminators and unclear roleclaiming, and Lumgol simply because I’m worried her win condition isn’t what she says it is, and that it’s conflicting with the village. Rather than hunting inactives, I might suggest lynching one of these three tomorrow to prove their honesty. Edit: Prior vote counts, for convenience: cycle 1 3) reklawdaoR: Elandera, Metabardnition, Crimsn(1) High Priest of Lord Tekiel: Furamirionind,(1) Gammalv Fiend: Araris Valerian,(1) ITIAH: Cadmium Compounder,(1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint,(1) Aranduensis: Mailliw772,(5) Guest103492: HPoLT, tiny wilson, NotASteelClone, Jon, Gammalv. cycle 2 (9+2) Crimsn Chanarach: Aranduensis, Cadmium Compounder, xinoehp512, Kidpen, Rae, Maill, Bard, Eland, alVoidus (5) Seventh Saint: Seventh Saint, Sapphire Elephant, Steel, Rathmaskal, Crimsn Chanarach (1) Cadmium Compounder: I think I am here (1) Aranduensis: Mailliw772, (2) alVoidus: Adavantos, Araris Valerian (1) Sapphire Elephant: Furamirionind cycle 3 Rath (3): Walin, Bard, Alv Alv (3): Ada, Araris, Elan CadCom (3): CadCom, Xino, Snip Itiah (1): Fura Snip (3): Rand Lum (1): Fifth Drought (1): Itiah
  7. @Mailliw772 Can I confirm that you’re leading this phantom third faction, and that it won’t cause the village to lose? Or if your win condition does, I’d rather you be honest and see if we can come to an arrangement, potentially pulling off a joint win (if we kill the last Spammer while simultaneously fulfilling whatever you want done).
  8. Yes, I knew my new role beginning N2, and carried it through D3. I was a Mastrell, from LG29, which obfuscated scans. Right now I have the Coinshot 2 role from LG41 (another of Joe’s games actually) and the terminology has been modified for this game; I can protect myself from all actions targeting me, except Babaji’s kill or alignment scans.
  9. A player list, to which I append by somewhat jumbled thoughts: May I suggest The Only Joe—Has had very little overall content. His only notable points are a general suspicion of Lumgol, and a commitment to be more active which he never really followed through on. No read, would be a good target for a Crusader if he never shows back up between now and the end of the Night. Elandera—An interesting case. Has been quite active, though her posts seem to contain more speculation than analysis. Supposedly has cleared Rath, though I’m not discounting the pair of them being Spammers, especially with Rath’s own “false” scan on Devotary. I’m almost certain, at the very least, that some of the “scans” floating around are false, and believe Elandera may be a good place to start looking for faked alignment scans. Very, very slight spambot read. xinoehp512–Seems a touch low on activity. General bandwagon-voting, low-activity, not a huge focus right now. Claims a redirection role, which fits with some versions of events. It is worth noting that SookeSiled is a known redirect role, though, so we should be cautious. Furamirionind—I have no idea, frankly. Has posted a lot, but the sheer volume and my sheer lack of time makes that too much of a block to analyse. Keeping at a neutral/slight village read for now based on pure tone. Adavantos—My best village read at the moment. Obviously this makes him a likely convert, but he’s been vocal, analysis-driven, and correct, and as a result I’ve got him as very strongly village without really needing to review his posts. Aranduensis—Has been doing a lot of analysis, though that’s NAI for them. Fairly unconfirmed at the moment, though their attitude in the last couple of cycles towards solving the game has improved my read on them (though it should be noted that I believe they’re currently focusing on the wrong group of players, which I’ll get to in a while). Overall neutral. NotASteelClone—confirmed multi-boxer. I think I am here.—Has posted so much in the alleyverse I can’t find his SE content. Is supposedly cleared, based off a comment Fura made, though I honestly forget how. Seventh Saint—me. Cadmium Compounder—Not sure on him. The “please lynch me” tactic, while I did use it, is, as many have rightfully mentioned when I did it, not a sign of innocence. He does claim roleplayer, in which case he will lose his jester role soon if he’s telling the truth. Mailliw772–The pin holding together a lot of the claims. I’d very much like to know either her full ability set or her alignment (preferably both), since her death would inform us on quite a few people, and I’ve gotten bad tone reads on some of her comments and actions, most recently the rapid on-and-off switch with CadCom. Snipexe—Seems to be getting more active. As I’m getting more sleepy, I’ll lazily assign him “ok for now” and think more in the morning. alVoidus—my thoughts echo others’ on Alv—he is potentially suspicious. However, his very lack of content makes him a poor lynch target, so while I suspect him slightly I’d rather kill Elandera or Lum this cycle. |257|-|—Has been supposedly cleared by Elandera. Araris Valerian—very low activity, which is slightly unusual for him. Our Crusader ought to have his work cut out for him. Sapphire Elephant—anon account, Steel, village. Walin—joined but has gone dead silent. From sheer balance reasons I don’t think Joe threw in an extra spammer mid-game, but I could see him being something trollish like a third-party. That said, there’s no reason really to kill him, and as he’s said so little he’s not even a priority CC target. Unless he comes back to life, he should be safe to ignore. Okay, that was too long. I don’t expect to drastically alter anything two hours from rollover but Fifth Mailliw772/Lum. Aside from being curious about her alignment in the wake of all the claims surrounding her, I’m also wary of her posts in general, which I believe I’ve stated in previous posts. My apprehension about her, in short, won’t go away.
  10. Gah, I’ve been really, really sadly low on content this cycle, and I really need to step it up a bit when it comes to analysis. Give me a few hours (relatives are over again), and I’ll put a thought-out vote down, hopefully. Until then, Rathmaskal Fifth to incentivise me to actually do so.
  11. My role was Aiel-blooded at the time, so no scan obfuscation for me. Unless a villager wants to come forward and explain a role that messed up the “scan,” I really, really don’t trust the scan or the scanner to actually be real. As such, Rathmaskal until we can prove that the scan isn’t just a lie.
  12. Just a little bit of discussion, yeah. I’m having a bit of trouble keeping up, and had a generally busy day, but if I survive tonight I’ll try cobbling something together tomorrow. I’d still like to take a close look at both Rath and Steel.
  13. I’ve only skimmed the thread, but would offer that at least one of Rath and Lum is almost certainly evil. Frankly, I trust neither claim, and if the Crusader has the ability to eliminate either, that would be wonderful.
  14. I don’t want misunderstandings. If a vigilante kills me tonight and then wonders why I didn’t die, I wanted to clear that up so the village isn’t simply left baffled that I “lied”. Also, I’m putting myself out there for getting either killed or converted, and either way I’m probably taking a significant bullet for the village, so there are worse things to do than reveal my role. And there’s really no way to share only part of my role either.
  15. Yes. To fully crawl out into the open, my role isn’t a straight extra life; there was a reason I insisted I needed to be lynched yesterday. I’m a Roleplayer, and every night I receive a random past role that somebody RPed as. Last night it was Aiel-blooded from LG6, an extra life role, and this cycle I got an alignment-confusing role, Mastrell from LG29, which I won’t be using in the interests of helping village scanners out. If there’s a scanner that wants to use their action to confirm my role, though, I suppose we could maybe coordinate something? I agree with this, and want to take a closer look at people that hopped on my wagon, especially those who provided no reasoning at all. Finally, a note that we should trust nobody. I’d wager Babaji is likely using their conversion this night if not before then, so we’ll have to re-evaluate everyone from the ground up. Hopefully if current rates of activity hold constant we’ll get plenty to content to analyse from everyone in the coming days.
  16. I’m slightly bemused by the sudden outpouring of suspicion for myself and Ada, though if it helps me be lynched this cycle I won’t complain too loudly. As things stand currently, it does seem that quite a few people do distrust me, so I’d again call on the general public to please lynch me to prove what I’m saying about having an extra life. However, so as not to allow votes to escape scrutiny, I’d appreciate it if those who suspect me could give a general summary of what they find suspicious about me.
  17. No offence, exactly, but how do I trust you? And if that’s the case, would they mind disclosing the roles? I’m a little annoyed/confused by all the PM action going on, and can hardly be expected to know that you’ve gotten supposedly verified claims from each of them. (In fact, if everyone could be a little more open about what happened in their PMs to clear person X, Y or Z, that would be wonderful.) Besides, even if they are villagers, I believe my analysis still stands.
  18. HAHAHA, multiquote works across threads. That’s wonderful. Ignoring my unrestrained exuberance at being able to take a fresh look at the D1 lynch and not losing quotes, I picked out five posts that jumped out at me upon my reread of the D1 thread to analyse, because I really don’t have time to trawl through that whole thing and say everything that comes to mind. My first point is relatively minor, but I’d like to address that Devotary did attempt at the beginning of D1 to expose Elephant’s actual account, which we know to be truly village, even at the time. Though it’s not something I’d build a lynch case on, it’s worth noting when evaluating her posts as a whole, and contributes to my hesitation to clear Crimsn completely. I know this post by Elandera drew a lot of flak from several sources during C1, but I still find suspicious content here that is unmitigated by her later defences and refutations of this post. The vote on Roadwalker seems cast in such a way that is perfect for a distancing Spambot partner—flippant, easily retracted if pressed, and in short something I’d expect a teammate to use as distancing. The vote obviously could be legitimate, but there seems something inherently wrong with the tone here. While I accept Elandera’s later justifications for her suspicions on Ada and Arand, I’m less willing to give her a pass for the Road vote. Ada echoes my thoughts on Steel and Elandera in this post, rightfully pointing out that Elan’s tone was off in her post. This further advances him as village in my eyes. Lumgol not only attempts to reopen discussion into Elephant’s identity here, but also does so in a way that defends Roadwalker in the hedgy, heavy-with-implication kind of defence that Elims like to use to deflect attention from teammates; in conjunction with her vote on Rae, this makes me suspicious of Lum. I never directly explained my issues with this post, and certainly don’t want to reignite an old argument with Steel, but this post continues to bug me. I’m mostly fine with the comments on Road—they certainly could be a soft defence coming from a spammer, but there’s also ample reason for a villager to make similar remarks. I’m more thrown by the vote on Guest. First of all, while I’ve never subscribed to vote-position theory, it’s worth mentioning that this was the third vote on Guest, a good point for a teammate to cement a bus and still look like an initial advocate of the vote—with Road being the only other serious candidate after the Rae lynch failed (which I’ll note Steel tried to push before it didn’t really go anywhere), any Eliminators would likely be best served by hopping on one of the two leading wagons and trying to clear themselves late in the cycle. This is exactly what Steel did. Second, the vote’s justification is both emotionally overexaggerated, and also conveniently prevents Steel from needing to say anything of substance about the Guest vote. Simply calling the post suspicious isn’t really specific, and the ambiguity is perfect for an Eliminator. TL;DR—After a brief reread of D1, I’ve found cause to be suspicious of Lumgol, Steel, and Elandera, in roughly that order.
  19. The False Allure of Godhood A dirty secret the Mods don’t want you to know is that the spikes that come with the position grant few powers beyond the reach of the site. Yet why is it that most Mods, and even a few people that are not Mods, feel the need to claim divinity? In a word: power. Or, perhaps more accurately, control. To stabilise their realms, ancient rulers invoked supposedly divine guidance to justify their tyranny, and a few were successful in casting themselves as gods in the process. Is that different from what has happened here? The invidious control of the Mods has spread nefariously beyond original, smaller spheres of influence. After Alvron announced his Gods of Luck and Chance, animal cracker purchases rose by 50% in a few short months among SEers. Orlok’s influence is clear—an open High Priest arguing for his Church of Enlightenment is all that is required to notice his pervasive influence. Perhaps Wilson has retreated to the Shadows, but few forget her feats in days past, and even now she rallies her PR Agents and Heralds to herself, seeking influence anew. How can SE survive the war in “heaven” that will assuredly ensue? The Great Hero of Latter Days Our answer lies in the precedent established by our most recently retired mod: Seonid. Despite reaching a pinnacle of power, he limited his expansion to merely embodying Hoid, and letting his characters roam the Cosmere. Using his powers only for the good of others, he planted a great Vegetable Garden ere he left, full of all manner of living things which he entrusted to SE to nourish. However, half of his crop of beets has already been lost this year to the impending War in Heaven. Is this how the most powerful among us should be treating a humble and retired Mod? I encourage all of SE to rally behind Seonid and his precedent of noninterventionism, seeking the cultivation of our games and the resolution of the senseless conflict gripping the upper echelons of the Modhood. It is by this virtue alone that I, and perhaps all of you, may survive unscathed. Listen not to the lies of the High Priest; she may have abandoned her soul to Orlok, but we all need not. The impending war may be turned aside if all act together, and there is no need to cling to any one person in the hope that they will help you survive the coming conflict. Trust to yourself, and you may truly live. Or join me. I turn away nobody who is willing, and provide free Invested objects to any seeking to mediate disputes. The ASWA is selective, but you all have the inherent capacity to become servants of a Higher Cause—the abolition of inter-Shardic conflict. RP aside, I hope to review the thread and post something substantial tonight. Hopefully I will also respond to everyone else’s concerns at that time as well.
  20. Very briefly, to respond to a few points: - @High Priest of Lord Tekiel, I’m unapologetic if my self-vote seemed overreactive. You’re free to call my bluff if you believe I’m bluffing, but the fact remains that lynching me would confirm my village alignment, and with several others stating at least mild suspicion of me, I’m not going to pass up an opportunity to clean my name. - Crimsn Chanarach seems to be lurking, and a post from her would be appreciated, particularly given the confusion that’s surrounded her for much of the game. More AI content is needed from quite a few people (including myself), too. - The sudden swing to Arand confuses me slightly, though that may be due to an insufficient allotment of time to read the thread. - Leaving this as a reminder for myself to analyse Maill and Ada later.
  21. Very well. While I don’t have time to respond to all this, Steeldancer. You raise valid points, and keeping you around a bit longer hopefully won’t hurt us much if you actually are a spammer. To everyone else, might I suggest myself as a compromise choice? I will survive this lynch, which will clear me (at least temporarily), and hopefully allow for an analysis of this cycle untinted by the fear I may be evil. If I’m not an option, I’d be fine with a Fura lynch, though admittedly I haven’t looked into that very closely.
  22. My apologies, Steel. I’ll attempt to address each of your primary concerns, as again, time is not my friend. -In regards to my early vote on you, I was dissatisfied with the Roadwalker lynch, as I typically am with low-information yielding lynches, and hadn’t had much time at all to make a nuanced vote or perform any analysis beyond a basic level. This was before the Guest bandwagon, which I likely wouldn’t have joined, and in regards to me not responding, that was a simple function of me voting and then not looking at the thread for the rest of the cycle. If you want me to say it again, I was with relatives for the entire past three days and had no time whatsoever to make anything beyond minimal contribution. Obviously, I hate that. I enjoy being a fully active player, but IRL things got in the way. -Your vote on Guest does not clear you in the slightest. In fact, it looks worse now than it did before—knowing now that Road was up for the lynch, you helped contribute to the lynch of a Roleless Spammer over a powerful, Roled one, and the way in which it was cast is not, at least in my mind, consistent with any of the past play you mentioned. I tend to find you a cheerful yet often resigned villager who sounds slightly exasperated (no offence ), rather than an overly emotive one, and as such your vote on Guest looked odd to begin with. -Alvron creating a tie is, as previously mentioned, also NAI, and clearing him for it is unwise. The chance he had to create chaos with the votes shouldn’t be dismissed as well—if he was a Spammer, his seemingly random vote-switching could have been telling. -I no longer suspect Devotary, but with the information I had at the time, could you honestly blame me? Working with limited time, that post would jump out as immediately suspect with the info I had at the time, and I was hardly the only one decrying her. -I will note that I did express mild suspicion of Roadwalker after Guest’s lynch, which may have contributed to him as a target last Night. (This was a comment I made that Guest appeared to have tried to defuse a lynch on Roadwalker, and that it could be potentially telling either way.) -In reference to me tunnelling on you, that may be the case, but again, I’ve not had time to survey a broad field of candidates, and currently have a lot more village than evil reads, so I’m pursuing what I have. I can’t comment on my flat tone—that’s again likely a result of me being in a rush and not being able to perform analysis. -Finally, as I can prove my village alignment via the lynch without the lynch killing me, I will be happy to shift my vote if that is what the village wishes. I’d rather not waste my extra life doing so, but if I must, I will, just to allay these concerns if more people than Steel actually have them.
  23. I’m not going to disguise this as anything approaching my normal level of a well-thought and analysed vote, but Steeldancer. While there are elements of Rae’s analysis I take issue with, I appreciate that she’s voiced my suspicions of Steel in a way I hadn’t been able to previously; in addition, his vote on Guest still strikes me as emotionally overexaggerated, and seemed intent almost on derailing the wagon by giving it an easy source of scrutiny—his own vote. It also looks like very convenient distancing in the aftermath of the lynch actually going through. Again, once I’ve finished my work, I’ll try to go through today’s thread at the very least and offer my thoughts (particularly on Rae’s analysis).
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