Megasif

First of all, a big thanks for hosting Joe. It was a really fun game, one of the most enjoyable I've played, though I was low activity. There were some really good discussions and good analysis going on, made it easier for new players to get in and get bloody

Also mistakes were made on my part during and after the game  I should've fought my lynch just to give village that one more village life. 

But it was extremely enjoyable.

Good game everyone.

Almost forgot the earlier deadline. I'm not exactly sure about Emi. I feel like we should tie someone else but it's too late.

Let's see where this goes though Emi

There's just one problem Matrim

I AM THE REAL WINSTING. 

I can come out now that I pushed a bit extra for bugsy lynch to fake-cover (somewhat) for winsting and bugsy to push for me rather than the actual winsting.

I haven't done any analysis about the remaining elims to be completely honest. I can sheep on Experience but I may go back if I get a chance just to read some of the posts from the remaining players before I commit to anything

I didn't have a chance to come post properly last cycle. At least killing winsting doesnt end gane now. Just a matter of finding the last elims. I was gambling tycoon. Now I can be killed with just one lynch or night action. 

I doubt theere are more than 3, likely 2 left (need to recheck numbers).  I'm probably going to sheep Detess' analysis from previous cycle, excluding the read on me of course. But we'll have to assume worst case scenario, that we can't lynch wrong. It's actually really difficult with non-active players because it basically becomes random.

6 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Yes, but long story. I can get into details in a PM if you want, as its really not game related.

Got it

Still not an elim

30 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

I think it's somewhat interesting you didn't try to defend yourself. At all.

I really don't think you are an elim though, for a reason that might not even be meta. The person Mega replaced only had one post, that was to sign up. I doubt Joe would assign someone like that to be an elim.

I probably will, later. And yh I'm village lol

12 minutes ago, DeTess said:

It differs per gm, but most don't handpick elims, instead using rng to create 2-5 divisions and pick the one that looks best. And 'best' is often a mix of veterans and newbies. Starting out as an elim is often great because it really puts you in contact with the community.

Also @Megasif, 'she' for me, tyvm

Wait isn't this Randuir's new account?

I've been somewhat distracted recently. Nice work with silberfan. 

Also a side note, I think the extortionist is really strong. Bugsy shouldn't have been backed into a corner like that but anyways. 

Detess is cleared unless he decided to bus silber for the cred to endgame which is unlikely. Plus the frustration previous cycle is villagery.

I think we get bugsy this cycle, in a tie, if we prefer, ideally not with me, of course 

Bugsy, I may have a change of heart. I feel like I owe you a tie at least.

However, I reread the rules and we can't win together. If we disperse party, then even with one elim alive, elims win. We can't risk it because we are not told if all elims are gone. Plus we may not have enough awake players. If winsting dies, you win as game's over. You're right that you can't do anything, but elims can still kill winsting (by accident).

Hmm

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

We have had three active escorts though, and I doubt all of them are evil. So I think bleeder can be contained even if we fail at tying them up twice in a row. Like I've been saying though, I'm not saying 'ignore bleeder' I'm saying 'tie bleeder with a suspected elim to get the double lynch'. If we focus fully on bleeder, it means we're handing two to three kills (depending on whether a villager can roleblock bleeder next turn) to the elims for free.

I just reread OP and realised that upon a tie, both parties are lynched, rather than being random. My mistake.

40 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

...where have you seen me say this? I’ve explicitly said that even if I don’t submit a kill, the elims can force me to use a kill action anyways. 

On 6/6/2020 at 10:12 PM, Bugsy said:

Alright, I’ve done this math once before, guys. It doesn’t work out the way Sart is pretending it does.

There are 17 people remaining. I am one of them. Presumably around 5 of them are eliminators. That means it currently stands at about 11 - 1 - 5.

This cycle, I will be lynched and survive. A villager will be killed. That puts us at 10 - 1 - 5.

The cycle after, I will be lynched again. A villager will be killed by the elims, and another will be killed when they redirect me. That puts us at 8 - 0 - 5.

wait, I read the bolded as you saying you're submitting a kill whenever possible. My mistake.

19 minutes ago, DeTess said:

But that's the risk of any lynch. And we do those anyway, because even if it's a miss, at least it weeds out suspects. The push on Silberfarben is actually a good example of this. At least one of Silberfarben and Zillah is evil, so even if the silberfarben lynch is a miss, it'll still give us an elim.

And I find it really odd I need to tell you this. 'We might not get an elim' has never been a reason not to try.

I agree with everything.

As long as there wasn't an outed anti-village faction(not exactly faction, I know) which isn't a benefit keeping alive for village. And they still don't die may I remind you. Bugsy has also admitted (as a half- threat (or maybe a full-on threat), I believe) they will continue placing kills which will either be redirected to villagers or he will be roleblocked.

Anyways, it's just my opinion on the current course of action but nothing that I'm 100% on, so I do concede, we can try lynching an elim but I have a feeling either this or next cycle may be make or break for village regarding bleeder. 

17 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

‘Suspicious’ in the sense that there’s no reason a villager would oppose a chance to get an extra elim. I don’t understand your reasoning, and frankly there doesn’t seem to be any  You just don’t want to lynch an elim

I think it's just that I'm not certain we'd actually be lynching an elim. I don't know what would be a bigger reason than that. 

Also it could easily be that you're lying about one of your roles and in the case of a tie,you can move a vote yourself onto your counter-wagon. 

If we are to take what you said as the truth about not being able to perform actions as you want due to being cornered by the elims, then pyro has been leading us on for a good few cycles onto non-elim lynches, which was actually the case. Though I have to give you credit for doing this well after outing as bleeder. 

35 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Can you explain this statement? First, 'elim' suggests you have reason to believe the people I accused are innocent. If so, I'm certain we'd all like to hear why.

Second of all, can you explain in what world someone trying to find the elims is suspected of being one, while someone trying to lynch someone that explicitly isn't an elim should be trusted?

I think the chances are slim but I won't rule out the possibility of you being an elim. But that's all it is, paranoia, if you will. 

For second part:

We're 'trying' to tie an elim with bleeder but that never equates to the certainty of having a definite anti-village faction. Also bussing exists: example Sart in the recent QF. I mean, I think it's good to have healthy paranoia 

5 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

There’s only two ways people die at this point - they’re killed by the elims, or they’re lynched by the village. One of those is guaranteed to hurt the village, the other has a chance of helping.

Lynching is a risk, for sure. But it’s NOT an ‘unnecessary’ risk, because if we don’t do it we’ll never hit an elim. If we have the option to increase the number of village kills without giving any extra kills to the elims, I see no reason we shouldn’t take it.

Doesn’t matter if I find Winsting, because I can’t kill him. All but 2 of my actions this game have been redirected or roleblocked, and it’s virtually certain that’ll happen again for every cycle left this game. 

BR isn’t active  It looks like the current candidate for a tie is Silb, if you’re willing to join that vote train

Not how it works. Extortionists can force me to use my kill action, even if I don’t send in an order to use it myself.

@Megasif, you’re really striking me as suspicious right now. What’s your role?

Role is secret 

Suspicious in the sense the sense that I'm a 'villager calling out for one bleeder lynch' or an 'elim calling for a bleeder lynch' as I don't seem to be the bleeder 

I know Detess wants a tie but it's an unnecessary risk for village in the case we are tying a a village for the lynch.

Hi. interesting development

That's why we always lynch an outed elim. 

That's why we should always take the bleeder down to 1 life rather than having them 2 lives even later in the game. 

Detess!elim is possible especially with their quick turnaround on lynching the bleeder and trying to go for an 'elim'.

Best way to go from here (in my opinion)

We lynch bugsy once, let night actions resolve, and see where we are tomorrow. 

Reason:

Busgy is over-exagerating our bad position. Quite a few elims are down. Best thing for bugsy is delay and try to hunt elim, because with a decent case on him by one the elims as a bleeder and he could be a runaway wagon. Plus he gets more time to get winstig.

Honestly if I were bleeder and I didn't want to be a tool for the elims, I wouldn't submit an action to be redirected. Bugsy has made this attempt and fair enough. Time to level the ground and at least bring bugsy in danger. Everyone is playing to their win-con. Pyro and bugsy were and are both furthering their wincon. And it is definitely more fun 

Bugsy

Also I'm up for trying out Detess tomorrow. (Although not 100% on this, I think it's a good plan of action. If he's elim, he needs pressure and if he's not, he may live longer )

On 04/06/2020 at 5:55 PM, TJ Shade said:

C1 and C2 are pretty solid. There's no reason to target Fura is Devotary is elim. It's a waste of an action and I don't think any elim would do that as their very first move. Bussing so early in the game without a lynch makes no sense. 

@DeTess can you confirm C3 action?

@Megasif can you confirm C4 action? Devotary, whom did you actually target in C4? If Devotary flips village, we'll have proof for the existence of elim Extortionist. 

C5 is common knowledge though it's nice to get confirmation.

Nothing worthy of mention just yet.

Edit: quote didn't edit into the above post.

At this point, I am very out od touch with the mechanics side of things. 

I'm also unsure about xino. I'll try this out for a while. Shard of reading.

I think it's time for pyro to leave a legacy and a new elim representative to step up 

Feel like the HH lynch was my fault. It had more traction than others somehow though. 

Detess why not vote pyro? Apart from them communicating with village.

4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

So @Megasif, I can't lay all my cards on the table as that would guarantee an elim loss. A good 50% of the people we've cleared is because they're elims, so we can't do anything much right now. I can't even suggest a lynch target. If it looks like someone's going to be lynched who's clear/semi-clear though, I'll speak up.

Thanks Wilson! That means a lot, coming from you.

Which is where my hesitancy comes from.

But Ok, I can accept the second part. What are your requirement of someone being clear/semi-clear btw, apart from them being an elim of course.

4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Still don't think you should completely disregard a good plan just because of its source.

@little wilson someone's pointed that out already.

I'll check to see how many people we have left to work through for bleeder in the elim doc. I think someone made an alignment table C1.

Hmm. Feels like this could help. Until you lay all your cards out on table regarding bleeder, in thread, not in PM, we have no reason to attempt to work together. I may or may not have something spicy to share myself from my role last cycle.

Just now, The Young Pyromancer said:

Now I'm sad because I really liked it. 

Fine, be that way, and have a bunch of redundant scans. See if I care. 

Also detess eloquently giving words to my thoughts.

4 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Bleeder can only be lynched, making a situation where the elims deal with them be the elims outing themselves being the only ones voting. Not that I would mind that but it just won't happen from the elim perspective. Which is why Pyro keeps asking for help.

Fair enough. Let's lynch us a bleeder. Just saying if we make bleeder the sole focus, then elims have an easy time blending in.

12 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Re: megasif, the elims have to kill a LOT of people to win.

Bleeder has to kill ONE, which can't be protected by bodyguards.

Who's more dangerous right now?

Bleeder is more dangerous aorn but I'd rather elims deal with them 

20 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Why. Bleeder is out there, Pyro proposed an idea to find them that may be slightly controversial but if it works then this is great. Why would you not want to attempt to lynch Bleeder? As far as I can tell Pyro is not trolling. I believe he actually is making a serious attempt to find and eliminate Bleeder because he realizes that if Bleeder kills Winsting both teams lose, ours and his. Once Bleeder is lynched I'm all for getting rid of Pyro but for now I think he is better off staying.

We always let elims find the bleeder. They also never win with bleeder alive. And letting elims live is getting us further away from our wincon. And we play right into elims' hands. 

(Now if I can just find the colour red somwhere on this page...)

To expand: We don't know each other's alignments. Elims already have a distinction between village and elims. That's the biggest advantage already. Then they can pool their resources (roles) without being worried if they're getting tricked by the people they're working with. After getting bleeder, we still need to figure out elims. Right now, with a bleeder on the loose, elims can also feign solving to look villagery, making it even more difficult.