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Nyali

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Everything posted by Nyali

  1. Nyali
    Arinian. Sorry for being mostly inactive and not voting last turn. I've just been really busy lately. With QF20 over and the holidays mostly over, I should be more active in this game now.
  2. Nyali
    My first post of the cycle, I posted super early my time as well. JUQ came up with a great strategy for the last turn, but I misread it because I was out of it, and voted for the wrong person. I was supposed to vote for JUQ, for one xD
  3. Nyali
    Good game, everyone! ^.^ My strategy this game was to go after any fellow eliminator that had accrued any logical suspicion while, for the most part, avoiding voting for villagers who were going to get lynched. It appears to have worked xD I even tried to make sure I had answers every turn to the question "Why is Nyali still alive?" I actually went deliberately afk for the second to last day, spending my free pass on purpose. That way, when Burnt died instead of me, I could say the elims didn't go after me because I was inactive that turn if anyone had brought that up. The turn before that, Joe killing Sart made total sense because everyone was so convinced that either Joe or Sart was an eliminator and the other was a villager. Regarding JUQ not dying from inactivity, ironically, I think it would have been easier to get Stick to keep her vote on Kynedath in the last turn if JUQ had died from inactivity. Dunno, Stick would have to answer that, but 2v2 is hard because you KNOW two of the players have to be lying, and the elims won't want to get their own killed at that point because that puts them in an even worse situation. So if there are three votes on someone, you can tell that one elim has to be voting with you, and therefore the target is innocent. If there are only two votes on someone, then it's going to be a cointoss on who gets killed. Games where 1v1 is an eliminator win because no lynch can occur make this moot, but games without that rule (like this one) leave the ending to a cointoss in this situation. With 2v1, you just need to convince one person that the other is an eliminator. Props to Kynedath for that post on the last day which was totally correct in every way, and a great strategy. Unfortunately, it didn't sway Stick. Still, it was a really good post and tactic.
  4. Nyali
    This is a solid tactic, Kyne. You push for a 50% chance that Stick will vote for me, in which case, you and JUQ win by having JUQ change his vote last minute to me using the secret vote mechanism thing. That situation gives you a guaranteed win. If Kyne votes for JUQ instead, then you vote for JUQ for now, but then both of you switch your votes at the last second, putting it at 2v2 and giving yourselves a 75% chance of winning. So, that puts your victory chances at 87%, rather than the 75% you'd get by just revealing now. I guess it's up to Stick as far as who she believes is the elim.
  5. Nyali
    I was thinking about this too when JUQ voted. I think he's planning to change his vote at the last second, probably trying to get one of us to vote for someone else so they can both pile on the same one of us. That could be why Kynedath hasn't bothered voting yet. It would, at worst, put it at 2v2, and at best at 1v1v2 or 1v3. The best thing we can do is keep the last two votes on an elim. Remember, they can vote in secret once per game, which is there for exactly this sort of situation. Assuming I'm understanding that once per game thing they can do...
  6. Nyali
    Really sorry about last cycle - work was extremely busy yesterday, and the baby was a little ill and cried nearly the entire night x.x I think it's pretty clear that the remaining eliminators are Kynedath and JUQ, like you said.
  7. Nyali
    I don't have time before bed to do a full analysis, but basically, I'm pretty convinced that either Sart or Joe is an eliminator. My vote's going on Joe for now. I know I was going after Sart last turn, but after thinking about it more, Joe's just more suspicious to me, and not just because he's suspicious of me. I don't like how he jumped onto the Len lynch and then suddenly retracted his vote. I don't like that Joe has only one vote that stayed until the end of the turn - a vote on Cloudjumper. It seems to me like he's trying to sit back and let us townies kill each other. I'll try to do a better analysis tomorrow.
  8. Nyali
    Haha, oops. I was looking through the past vote tallies and forgot to check this cycle. Sorry!
  9. Nyali
    I'm going to steal this format from Burnt, just in case I die tonight. This is mostly from vote analysis. 0% good, 50% dunno/neutral, 100% bad/die fiend!1- Glathir (The Only Joe in the Bush) - 60% (has only voted once, for Cloud)2- Sartinia (Sart) 60% (Sart has voted for Cloud, Alv, Stick, and Joe. i think of him and Joe, one is an elim and one is a villager)3- Thendir (Magestar) 30% (went after Elenion and lynched him, also went after Elenion the prior turn)4- Arinian (Arinian) - 50% (acting suspicious, but the C2 vote makes me think a villager)5- Fjord (Assassin in Burgundy) 53% (has only voted once, for Stick)6- Lyce Norvo (Kynedath) n/a (dying this turn from inactivity, unless that one "I'm here" post counted)7- Stick (I am a Stick) 40% (lynched Elenion)8- Kipper (Kipper) 55% (has only voted once, for me)9- Galerion (OrlokTsubodai) 50% (hard to read due to inactivity)10- Rhea (Nyali) n/a11- Adarjmei (Burnt Spaghetti) 58% 55% (hasn't posted much except to list suspicions. Has never voted, which makes me really suspicious) Has voted once, for Arinian)12- John (JUQ) 45% (the C2 vote makes me think a villager)13- Ladric (Stink) 50% (dying this round due to inactivity, I think?) My vote is going to Sart. He has been part of a number of successful lynches of townies. If he's innocent, I'd immediately push for a lynch of Joe. Sorry for posting this so late in the cycle - I had little computer time today. Shopping with toddlers is hard. (EDIT: Oops, missed that detail with Burnt. Fixed the above - the new parts of the post are underlined.)
  10. Nyali
    Could we get a vote tally here?
  11. Nyali
    Whoo, got one! I want to vote on Arinian, for two reasons. First, his vote on Joe could be seen as an attempt to save Len from the lynch, but also, Rae had voted for him and Rae was killed by the elims last night. Coincidence? Attempt to frame Arinian? I don't know, but it looks suspicious to me. But then I remember cycle two, where there was a threeway tie: Would the elims have left it up to chance that an elim would not be randomly chosen to die when one of them could have easily (and mostly unsuspiciously) added a vote to a villager like Cloud? I dunno. But I'm going to hold off on voting for Arinian. I'm going to have to come back to this later after I've thought about it some more before placing a vote.
  12. Nyali
    Okay, but you need to put my name in red if you're voting for me.
  13. Nyali
    ... do you really need ALL of the cheese?
  14. Nyali
    My vote's going right back on Elenion. He's still the most suspicious person, I think.
  15. Nyali
    You missed the part where I did vote, then someone pointed out my mistake, and I retracted. Sorry I missed a rule clarification. I'm going to put a vote on Elenion. I don't know why no one else is voting for him - people keep calling him the most suspicious player. His reasoning on Ecthelion might have been influenced by the fact that they are brothers and siblings like to lynch each other (apparently), but it just reads as suspicious to me.
  16. Nyali
    No. I should clarify that. You can't redirect to self, but as long as the Voidbringer is alive, they can use the Skybreaker to kill an extra villager every turn. Of course, if the Voidbringer dies and THEN the Skybreaker reveals, it could be a problem. If I made Traitor Skybreakers Jailers, then a Radiant Skybreaker can prove their role and alignment trivially. That's the biggest flaw that I see.
  17. Nyali
    Thank you for the analysis! There's no role reveal on death, only alignment. That means that a kill does not reveal information about what roles are left in the game. If a Skybreaker reveals in the main thread, the Voidbringer can redirect the Skybreaker every turn, effectively gaining a second kill. That was meant to be a defense against role claims. Do you think it would be better if I changed the Skybreaker to work like the Truthwatcher, meaning, if they are a Traitor, their power is different? I obviously can't give the elims a vig. I could remove the vig role from the game and replace it with a Jailer (roleblocks your target and everyone who targets them with an action that turn). Also, not all roles will be in the game. Only a subset would be, depending on how many players sign up. What roles are in the game will not be publicly revealed, and that's reinforced by the no role reveal on death.
  18. Nyali
    Whenever my QF or MR turn comes up, I think I'm going to run a simpler version of something I posted here before. I agree that we need some more standard-format games rather than making every game be a complex one. The Conclave of Urithiru Rules Roles
  19. Nyali
    I really need to pay more attention to this game. DA
  20. Nyali
    Shoot, I forgot about that detail. That alone is enough to make me second guess my analysis. Aonar. Who else knew about that again? Also, I totally agree about DA. Should we lynch someone who claims to have an item that can kill the heart of the house, but is being extremely suspicious? I'm just afraid it will remove the item from the game...
  21. Nyali
    If you need to know my exact reasons for posting the way I did, well, my time for SE is sporadic between work and baby. I had literally just gotten home from work and had a second to check the forums and make a quick post before the baby needed a diaper change. I checked the forums afterward again, saw Lopen's post, and responded to it. But, I only had a moment to do so before dinner was ready, and I needed to go feed the baby. I get home really late some nights, and this happened to be one of them. I'm also surprised that no one else removed their votes in light of Lopen's post. EDIT: Umm, yes. My entire point is that they didn't vote to save any of the three.
  22. Nyali
    That's not at all what I meant. I meant adding a vote by, you know, voting Either one who hadn't voted yet voting for a villager, or one who had voted moving their vote to a villager, before the end of the cycle.
  23. Nyali
    So, last cycle, three people were tied. One of them would be lynched at random. I think all three were villagers, because if one was an elim, wouldn't at least one of the other elims have added a vote to one of the other two villagers, rather than leaving the loss of a teammate to chance? This gives me a slight trust toward JUQ and Arinian.
  24. Nyali
    I guess "early on" isn't exactly what I meant, i meant after she was attacked and protected. To me, that's a pretty clear indication that she's trustworthy. I haven't seem a WGG ever done here despite people talking about it a lot, so I see that as evidence of her villagerness.
  25. Nyali
    I'm not sure I agree that not voting to kill Hael makes someone suspicious. I'd think several of the elims would have voted for him the moment Wilson made that post. There's no way Hael wouldn't be lynched that day after Wilson's successful scan, so why would the other eliminators not vote for him? I've been suspicious of Araris, Aonar, Ecthelion, and DA for quite some time. I don't like the way Ecthelion kept going after Wilson - it seemed like he was trying to rally people against her when there was quite a lot of evidence that she is a villager, and one with a powerful role. Araris and Aonar, I don't like their voting patterns, but can't really elaborate on that. Aonar's posts last day phase just felt to me like an elim trying to use a doomed, known elim to make themself more trusthworthy. DA's posts have made me extremely suspicious of him, but if he really does have an item that can kill the heart of the house and really is a villager, killing him would mean losing that item, wouldn't it? I'm going to place my vote on Aonar for now.
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