Bugsy

Bussing isn't just about voting. If you sell out / cast suspicion on an elim teammate and it causes their death, it counts as bussing. That said, I agree that Devotary is probably not an elim. Pretty strong analysis and justification for this, and the conclusion is supported by the analysis of others (like Orlok from C1). BR feels like a good vote right now to try and keep us from butting up against lylo, and removing elim vote manipulation can only help us when it comes to causing deliberate ties.

Right. I think I might have blocked that game from my memory. Seriously, nothing more disheartening than a list of dead that's all village green. (Unless you're an elim, then it's fun )

Waiiiit. Was MR20 the one where we never really got proof that an elim team even existed? Because I think it was that one.

Huh. LG41 was during my hiatus, so I know why I didn't know about that one. I was in MR20, but somehow don't remember any of it. (In my defense, it was over 3 years ago now )

Ok, for one, Aman didn't win I remember that game, and it ended in a 3 way loss. Also, he was only an SK for the last, like, 2 cycles, and he'd been hard cleared before that, so it's very much special circumstances. As for the others... I have no recollection of either of those other ones. Were those after I started my hiatus? I'm a semi experienced player in that I started a long time ago, but I haven't played regularly in probably 2 years now Turns out I missed something while I was just chilling in the Discord server.

Can you give any details on how those clears were made?

A list of people who aren't cleared of being Bleeder: Silberfarben Xinoehp Experience Shard of Reading Coda Kynedath Matrim Zillah Archivist Mist Emi BR TGK DeTess Bugsy Sart A list of people who are cleared: Devotary Pyro TJ Shade Megasif Wilson I might be missing some clears, I just threw it together quickly. If you know something that clears someone, let me know and I can update it.

Issue here is, we know none of them were Winsting. Pyro definitely wasn’t because he’s an elim. Sart and HH definitely weren’t because Pyro knows Winsting’s identity and wouldn’t call him out as a target when there’s a meaningful chance it’d actually cause his death. All a tie like that does is remove potential options for who Bleeder is, not for who Winsting is. It wouldn’t benefit me as Bleeder whatsoever.

I like xino as a target. If he flips elim, it should be pretty clear proof that - as the only other kill target - I was elim killed last night. (Sart)

"Attacked themselves to avoid suspicion" isn't something that makes a whole lot of sense to me, personally. One of the distinguishing characteristics of Bleeder is that they survive attacks at night - putting myself in a position of having just done so would be rather dumb of me, and it's only served to draw suspicion to me this cycle. You're right, I don't have a provable alibi. But if you look at what I've argued historically, I just don't see how my actions make sense as a Bleeder suspect. The lynch this cycle was going to be targeted at the elims, and I've been a major factor in refocusing it on Bleeder. I've been doing that because I believe so long as Bleeder is alive we're perpetually a cycle from losing. I don't think that's exactly the sort of stance Bleeder would take. Plus, I tried to arrange a tied vote last night that came pretty storming close to succeeding. That would have wiped out two Bleeder suspects (or 3 in your book, since I know you were suspicious of Pyro). If I were so desperate to hide behind others as Bleeder, would I attempt a move to take so many of the others out? My saying so might make it an IKYK in the eyes of some, but if I were actually Bleeder it would put me at a real material disadvantage. There are only so many plausible Bleeder suspects, and because my role isn't provable, I'm one of them. IKYKs involve information that's meaningless because it could be a bluff or a double bluff or, well, you get the idea. This information isn't meaningless - Bleeder wouldn't voluntarily handicap herself like that, just to deflect suspicion that didn't even exist. Does anyone have an up-to-date votecount going? I'm interested in seeing what it looks like.

Gonna offer any evidence for that, or is it just because I'm not an elim and xino is?

If I'm remembering right, you said you didn't only because her analysis was inaccurate Which is it?

I did provide a reason - I was a gambling tycoon. Just because the elim kill failed last night doesn't mean you have to go for me with the lynch today I'm disinclined to believe Pyro at this point, honestly. I mean, he talked in thread about plans to kill DeTess, and said he would have framed Bleeder for it. If he's willing to mislead the village on something like that when he says we should work together, I don't know that I trust him on smaller stuff either.

Do we know how much vote manipulation the elims have? Because if we go for a straight tie, I’d assume they could rescue pyro

Or a troll post But I like your option more

For me, I am (or was) a Gambling Tycoon. Not the sort of role that gives me much utility, but I’m guessing now that I’ve said it out loud I’m a sitting duck for a kill tonight.

My issue is, even if you get the information, it only clears Sart, not you. And if Sart gets killed by Bleeder this cycle (either because you do it or because someone else who’s Bleeder does), that keeps this whole plan from doing anything while also tying up at least one scan and one bodyguard protection. I think either Sart of Kynedath are Bleeder, or both of them are elims. The second is growingly likely, in my opinion, especially considering how it’d mean all of Kynedath’s ‘scans’ are of suspected elims, roles which he’d already know from the doc.

Someone sent in an order to do so, and Joe just went along with it. Eventually all 3 got killed, and anarchy happened Hmmmmm. Certainly possible. There’s just consistently something off about their posts and plans. I think Sart is my priority this cycle, but I would be more than ok with a lynch on Kynedath too

Not confirmed. They could have gotten the information some other way without a scan, or could have scanned on a different cycle. And something still seems super off about them to me. I REALLY don’t like this. There’s too many ways for this to go wrong if Bleeder interferes, and if you or Sart are Bleeder (my two biggest suspicions), either of you could easily play this to your advantage. If neither of you are, Bleeder could easily kill you to frame Sart, kill Sart to frame you, or basically anything else. I really don’t trust this. Some genuine flaws with your plan were brought up, and you largely brushed them aside. It’s not helping my suspicion at all. I don’t think an SK has ever won a game like this. The closest I can think of is when Amanuensis managed to kill all the GMs in QF14, which was an “everyone loses” sort of situation.

Uhh. How would Bleeder have 'bribed an escort', out of curiosity? Is that a game mechanic that I'm just missing, or do you mean actually bribing the player?

Alright, among your roleclaims there are two (Shard of Reading and Coda) that weren't previously public knowledge. @Shard of Reading and @Coda, are you two willing to confirm these reads? And people who've been talking in PMs a lot, is there any way Kynedath could have gotten this information from the grapevine / was it already known by anyone who shared it? @little wilson, I figure you might be able to help with that. There's still a possibility you're Bleeder, if you scanned Shard of Reading or Coda on C1, killed on C2 and C3, and scanned the other one on C4. I'll admit it's less likely, though. I'd be interested in seeing your claims confirmed before I take them at face value, though, considering every other claim you made is still setting off my alarm bells That said, for now, Kynedath Sart A global tie means everyone left in the game ties, @TJ Shade. So no, he wouldn't have gotten roleblocked for doing so - he just didn't use his vote manip action last night for some reason.

So my last one wasn't a double post because I was ninja'd by Kynedath. This one probably will be for real, though 1) Sure, that'd be useful to confirming your roleclaim. Bleeder does have a scan, though, so it's not quite a perfect alibi 2) Are you sure? Here's what I thought the votecount was on each of those people at the time of your post: Pyro (3): Silberfarben, TJ Shade, The God King HH (3): Megasif, Sart, Bugsy Sart (4): Pyro, Matrim, Hemalurgic Headshot, Experience It looked like you disrupted it from being 3 sets of 3 votes (once Sart removed one on himself) and made it so only HH would die 3) I mean, that's possible, but if you felt really bad about it why are you doing it again this turn? 4) I know it's a balancing act, but you don't seem to be going much for balance - it looks like you're focusing on the Elims and just ignoring Bleeder for now, unless we happen to stumble across her

Sorry for the double post, I want to explain a bit in response to something I just saw in one of DeTess' comments For me, it was more motivated by the potential to create a tie. It failed in that purpose because of votes cast after me, but as it stood when I cast my vote, the count looked like this: Pyro (3): Silberfarben, TJ Shade, The God King HH (3): Megasif, Sart, Bugsy Sart (4): Pyro, Matrim, Hemalurgic Headshot, Experience Sart, I knew, could remove a vote on himself, making it a 3-way tie at 3 votes apiece. That would have been some fantastic action economy for the village. As for why I went with HH instead of someone else, Pyro had called them out earlier, which meant I knew they weren't Winsting. I honestly thought there was a chance it was maybe a distancing technique, and that HH could have been an elim or Bleeder. Making a tie that killed a confirmed elim, my biggest Bleeder suspect, and someone who could have been either an elim or an alternate Bleeder seemed like too good of an opportunity not to take it, and it almost worked.

My two biggest suspicions right now are Sart and Kynedath. Sart still has no solid alibi on a night with a Bleeder kill, and it's incredibly strange to me that his only publicly known action is for a night when we know Bleeder didn't use their kill ability. He also claimed ignorance about the Dowser and 8th Octant Constable roles as they related to Bleeder's objective, which seems dubious to me. I recall that it was mentioned in the thread at one point or another, and besides, one of the characters is literally named 'Dowser' - as in, they dowse for Bleeder. That mechanic seems like one Sart was unlikely to miss, and it strikes me as odd that he somehow managed to do so. This post strikes me as super suspicious, for a couple reasons: (1) Kynedath claims renowned, but gives only already-public information to support that assertion. Easily could be a faked claim. (2) Kynedath upsets the potential for a vote tie by voting on HH, while claiming to be helping it. It reads to me that they're trying to keep Pyro and Sart alive to potentially be killed tomorrow. (3) Kynedath explicitly decides to leave Pyro alive on a cycle where they could be lynched trivially, and instead commits to using the next cycle's discussion and lynch to kill Pyro instead. That sets us up for a wasted lynch today, on top of our wasted lynch last night. (4) Kynedath lastly wants us all to take our focus off the hunt for Bleeder and start targeting the Elims. While I don't completely disagree with this approach, it definitely helps Bleeder more than anyone else. I don't know which of the two is my bigger suspect, but I think I'll vote Kynedath for now. That feels like the choice that'll prompt more discussion this cycle.

No, because Sart will presumably take a vote off of himself. He can't cause global ties, but he can cause ties. At least, unless I'm misunderstanding something