Bugsy

Sart is still my biggest suspicion, but he raises a good point here. If Bleeder kills tonight and Sart takes a vote off himself, he's cleared. Plus, best case scenario for the village right now is a tied lynch that takes out multiple suspects, and that's more likely if I vote HH. Updated votecount: Coda (1): DeTess Pyro (3): Silberfarben, TJ Shade, The God King HH (3): Megasif, Sart, Bugsy Wilson (1): Wilson Sart (4): Pyro, Matrim, Hemalurgic Headshot, Experience Matrim (1): Sart

...so on the night Bleeder didn't do a kill, you used a visible action, but then didn't use it either night Bleeder did use a kill? I'm not sure how that's an alibi I don't really agree that he's cleared, personally. I've found your analysis to be fairly good this game, though - am I missing something? It's a bit of a necessity right now, unfortunately. If the elims NK Winsting, we're all screwed. (1) I disagree. The elims won't be careful in their kills. They'll just take potshots and hope they don't hit Winsting, or hope that if they do, he protects himself with his bodyguard power. The elims are still a big threat, and we should still be trying to find them, but they are all cleared not to be Bleeder, and that's what it looks like most people here are prioritizing right now (2) I would call that post mostly NAI. Elim!Sart would benefit from stifling discussion and having the village follow up on failed elim kills. Bleeder!Sart would benefit from the same, because every bodyguard protectee or gambling tycoon that's lynched is one less cycle he has to worry about it happening to him. Village!Sart would post it for the reasons he expressed in the post. His actual proposal there isn't something that exclusively benefits any one group, and it could be construed in favor of any read on him. This is suspicious to me, especially given the fact that there's nothing the elims can really do to Bleeder if they find her. Is there a reason no one is saying Megasif is a potential Bleeder suspect? It really doesn't suck at all, and it's the exact sort of thing I'd have tried in my first game or two. It ultimately detracts from a lot of the fun, though, because it removes the granularity and feels a lot more algorithmic. So it has nothing to do with you not doing a good job, it's just not an idea people here would tend to go for.

Hmm. Actually, Sart, I'm rather suspicious of you at this point. You know perfectly well that if a Bartender targets Pyro, the elims will likely have their bodyguard protect him the same night. Yet you say that if he survives the kill, you'd consider lynching him as a Bleeder candidate. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense from the perspective of anyone but someone trying to accomplish a mislynch, and the only person who wants a mislynch right now is Bleeder. Also, you don't want the elims knowing who Winsting is, which puts him entirely in the line of fire for the night kill these next few cycles. Again, that's not a fantastic outcome for anyone but Bleeder, since it risks an instant loss for both factions on a single unlucky kill order. You also know Wilson's Impersonator role, and Bleeder has a role scan as one of her abilities. Wilson's got a reputation like the one you talked about Araris not having, and it'd make sense for Bleeder!You to scan her C1 if you didn't want to risk killing the Dowser or the 8th Octant Constable. So, yeah. Sart, at least for now.

I didn't have the time I needed to useful to the lynch on Cycle 1, but I found enough time to post and let you all know where I'd be. It'd have been kinda dumb for me to do that and not use my action that turn, especially if I had a role as big as Bleeder I can confirm I did take an action on Cycle 1, and an extortionist redirected it so I targeted myself. I don't know who that extortionist was, but they can verify that claim if they're willing to make themselves known. My best guess is that your cases 2 or 3 happened. Pyro seems to believe that Araris was double tapped, and the escorts seem to be the most rational alternative if that isn't true.

Bodyguard

What they said was this: That means "have the BG protect me one night, and the other person the next, and alternate back and forth"

Are you sure? From one of Joe's posts: If a Renowned scans a player who has the Bleeder role and some other role, they'd see "bartender" only if the random role that got selected was "Bleeder". At least, that was my interpretation. @A Joe in the Bush, can you confirm?

How do you know a non-bleeder player? I'm guessing it's a renown scan, but you'd need two of those to actually clear someone. Edit: Wait, I'm dumb. You stalked someone who didn't target Karnage last night.

Ah, lucky Bleeder's been used as a doc spy before, which is why I was worried. In some LG or another, Bleeder!Rae was in the doc for the Odium faction, and wound up outing me when she negotiated a deal with Harmony. I've been a little paranoid of that ever since.

Before you post their identity in the doc, are we certain that Bleeder isn't an elim? I don't see anything in the rules saying otherwise, and a kandra could just as easily impersonate a Constable as they could a Criminal.

Alright, I was honestly getting a little bit of a bad gut read at first from DeTess, but their consistent high quality analysis has made them one of my strongest village reads in the game at this point. I completely missed this, but it's a really compelling point. Seems like it'd be good cover for a vote on Devotary later, without being committal enough to demand any action. Definite elim lean on on Archivist now. This fits rather well with what @Arraenae was saying earlier, IIRC. I don't think it's likely to be the case, because I'm pretty convinced Elk is Bleeder. If it turns out Pyro isn't trolling and actually knows something we don't, though, it could be plausible. Depending on how Elk flips, I might do a deep dive on Sart's posts and see if anything jumps out at me.

I think that if Elkanah is Bleeder, they're lying about the vote manipulation. I don't think the absence of a counterclaim is as indicative as you suggest, though - like I said before, Elkanah claimed Smuggler, and any villager counterclaiming smuggler would be potentially outing themselves as the Dowser. That gives the Elims two kills in one cycle, between the real Elim kill and the arbitrary action used by the 8th Octant Constable. I mentioned the same suspicion yesterday, here: I think it's plausible that both actions Elk has taken so far were kills that just happened to line up with the largest vote chain each time. It'd explain why we know they've only targeted people who we think were attacked by Bleeder. Even now I think we're past the point of the elims protecting Karnage. Pyro's said a couple times that Karnage is on their hit list, since he's revealed himself more than willing to out elims. Whether Elk flips as Bleeder or no, I just don't see the elims continuing to protect Karnage at this point. So, wait, you're claiming that you didn't know Araris was going to be killed in the first line, and then explaining the fact that you targeted him with wanting to "soothe people as they die". And on top of that, the role you're claiming isn't even soother, it's smuggler I don't know what to make of this, but I'm guessing Elk is stalling. My best guess for what happens tonight is that Elk and the Elims both target Karnage with their kills, in a last ditch attempt to double tap and break his protection. This is their last opportunity to do so before we have an essentially immortal scanner (or one that can't be killed without first taking down the bodyguards, at least). If there are any bodyguards out there who didn't protect Karnage last night, please protect him this time around, and alternate with whoever protected him yesterday. We can get a good protection system going, and with how well we've damaged the Elim team so far, it'll put us in a promising position going forward. Edit: Realized I haven't actually voted yet. Elk

I don't think that's how bets work In this hypothetical, you'd pay up if elk is Bleeder, right? So there's not a "good chance Wilson is Bleeder" in any universe where you have to pay up, unless you guys have some reason to believe there's two of them running around

You'll tell her, or you'll tell the thread? And one of your still-alive teammates? Or are you going to wordsmith and tell us all that Straw was on your team?

@A Joe in the Bush, if we lynch Elk this cycle, will they still be able to get a kill off before dying?

Could be. That's an oversight I made too, though, so it could just be an older player who's rusty

Hah, I actually thought there was a chance you'd do it this cycle, and that was one of the more plausible reasons I saw to let you live today Guess that plan is shot. Oh well Edit: @Matrim's_Dice One of the Elims has to send in the kill as their action each cycle. Only one of them can do it. Apparently, an extortionist got the idea of making Pyro target himself last turn, in the hopes that he'd use the elim kill and be forced to attack himself.

I really don't like this. I think it's likely the Elims have a bodyguard, and there's no way that bodyguard doesn't protect Pyro on Cycle 4. It also opens the door for an extortionist to redirect the kill, or for Pyro to be a Tycoon, or any other number of complicating factors that keep us from getting what should be a sure kill. Hmm. I'm suspicious about Tess, but you seem good this game and I think I trust your instinct on this one. IIRC, Orlok was suspicious of BR and Shard, right? I'm going to take a deeper look at some of his posts tonight, but if you know some of his reasoning from PMs I'd love to hear it. I don't think this is very persuasive. We know one of the seven votes on Karnage was cancelled, but we have no proof that it was Araris', and whoever it was might have good reason not to claim. If I'm remembering right, the Dowser is a village smuggler, and I doubt they'd claim smuggler publicly unless they want to make themselves the target of the 8th Octant Constable. I think it's entirely plausible you're bluffing and just hoping the Dowser isn't willing to counterclaim. Or it could even be that you're hoping they do, depending on who exactly you are.

Jesus Christ, you guys are actually trying to kill me here. Remind me to never get behind on this game again. Also, I typed out my responses below as I read the thread. If I respond with outdated information, it's because I was responding before I read the more recent posts. I agree that a claim should have been made. Not sure why he didn't make one. I'm also put off a bit by the kill on Araris. My analysis earlier actually had me going down a bit of a rabbit hole on him, until I saw he'd died. Maybe it was the result of a redirect? I don't think the IKYK with Sart is a plausible explanation. I don't feel like it's an obvious enough connection for them to bluff us out like that. I... really don't like the idea of having a mayor, and I don't think Wilson would want to be the mayor with her current playstyle either. This isn't meant to be a commentary on whether it's good strategy, it's just an element of the meta I don't love. Yeah, this is a good point too. Can't help but assume the Elims have at least one gossip - giving the village a near monopoly on PMs isn't Joe's style. Again, agree with this. Karnage should have told everyone he'd survive as soon as it became obvious he was the lynch target. As it was, he lost us our chance to get info C1. It's possible. This Straw thing is actually a little suspicious for me, though. Eliminators would have no reason to move votes to protect Straw if he was one of them, and they know we know that. I feel like that was done in such a way they knew would draw attention to Straw, but which would also be dismissed by everyone as a transparent elim ploy. I think it's a double bluff, if I had to guess Wow, wasn't expecting that. Thanks for finding us our first elim, stalker ...so I know I said I wasn't expecting that last thing, but this seems determined to one up it. I don't know if this is true, because I'm still a little suspicious of you, but I don't see this strategy ending well for an eliminator. I think that the only roles to pull this would be whoever's actually Flogs, a bluffing villager, or Bleeder. For each of those cases: Actually Flogs: Well, crem. You've drawn the attention of the elims, by outing them, and also the attention of Bleeder. Bluffing Villager: My immediate reaction towards this possibility was thinking it was a dumb thing to do, but I may have rushed to judgement. It would mean throwing a pretty big wrench in a lot of things, but drawing Bleeder's fire for a cycle might actually be a good strategy. Bleeder / Tycoon: Clever. If you get attacked by anyone now, it'll say a bodyguard defended you, and for good reason. It also means you'll never be lynched. The only threat to you here is a counterclaim, and a counterclaim makes Flogs vulnerable. Also, Bleeder gets a scan just like Flogs, so it's entirely plausible you scanned Straw and know he's an elim. I'm not sure which is more likely, honestly. I kinda hope it's the last one, though. That'd be a fantastic con to pull in your first game Yeah, Straw is definitely the most suspicious at this point. This still feels weird to me. Not voting on Straw yet, even when he's a clear elim read, but saying you probably will later? It's a good way to not commit to voting on him unless he's going to die anyways, and good cover for shifting your vote at the last minute. I might be influenced a bit much by my bad gut read earlier, but you're not making it easy on me If 4 is the case, I think it's more likely he actually scanned you and you flipped Elim. I know some players like the motto "confirmed good does not mean confirmed right" - for Karnage, in this particular case, "confirmed right does not mean confirmed good". Unless he is Bleeder Then it seems like a pretty good strategy. Hmm. Could you give a bit of an explanation as to why BR and Shard? I don't remember anything substantive that would point to that, although it's possible. All good analysis. The actual content is NAI, and my gut read on this post is actually good. I'll go through and check some of your posts in more detail tonight, I suppose, because you keep throwing my reads off. Yup, that's definitely suspicious. Straw and Pyro seem most likely to me as elims right now. ...well, then. Straw and Pyro seem to be confirmed elims right now Hmm. Actually, isn't it the case that during this cycle Fura was voted on by Straw and voted on Pyro? He did both without making really sizable arguments for why either was bad, too. That feels like a distancing strategy to me, and one that Fura was a part of. I say he's priority number 3 right now, at least on my list. I swear you made me question my sanity for a minute when I read this You're not helping with the whole "questioning my sanity" thing, just for the record From here to being current, there's enough trolling I'm not going to even attempt to analyze it. I'm officially current now, though. TLDR: Killing Straw and Pyro are our priorities right now, but with the suspicious action Fura took last night and the fact that he seemed to be distancing from Straw and Pyro before they were burned today makes me suspect him as well. I'm also curious if any redirect moved someone to target Araris - I don't know why the Elims would kill him otherwise, frankly.

Storms, guys, you’re making it impossible to catch up. All I’ve done so far is read through C1, and it’s already past 4AM by the time I’m starting to actually write my responses. Here goes nothing. I just want to start by saying, I love the no unvoting rule. Makes any vote cast a lot higher stakes, makes for more meaningful vote swings, and leaves a more solid trail to follow in later analysis. It’s something I’d love to see in future games, as long as it doesn’t wind up being problematic here. Now for my thoughts on the actual things that’ve been said: I’d honestly interpret the situation the other way around. The only people Bleeder’s incentivized to kill are villagers, and the Elims benefit from Bleeder’s continued existence to mask their own actions / detract from the village’s focus. Villagers also need to kill Bleeder to get the automatic dismissal of the party, whereas Eliminators can leave her alive if they want. Uhhh. Let’s not have our seer claim to the eliminators, that sounds like it’d be a problem More people picking up on this “Elims want Bleeder dead” idea. I really don’t think it’d be right, though, at least if the Elims are playing strategically With a role madness game, I don’t think Joe would make a larger-than-usual Elim team. That said, they do need 2/3 control to disperse, so it’s possible Wilson, you’re fantastic. This'll be a fun game Hmm. This seems plausible. Well. The meta is definitely that poke votes should go on the same person as previous ones, because it actually makes them a credible threat. That said, Matrim doesn’t quite know the meta, so this is probably NAI. That said, if Araris is elim, be very suspicious of Matrim. Added later: well, scratch that theory. Whoops. Can confirm that this is just Wilson having fun. And honestly, I’m here for it That’s perhaps a bit too pessimistic. Serial Killers don’t have a great track record of surviving in SE, and I feel like a role madness game in this vein doesn’t really help matters for them. My guess is Bleeder won’t survive to the endgame, with all the powers flying around. Hmm. Wouldn’t have picked this out myself, but it seems plausible. Worth keeping in mind, though I'd consider it a relatively minor factor in any analysis. I rather doubt the Elims would have a stalker, that role seems kinda useless to them. Maybe they have a scanner, just so they can be sure not to hit Winston in the endgame? It feels like giving elims non-offensive roles is sort of a waste, though. My gut is screaming at me not to trust you, @Arraenae. I’m not sure why, though. The closest I can come to articulating it is, it seems to me you want Straw alive as a soundscreen. Having C1 and C2 both focus on Straw-based controversy means he’ll give another cycle of cover. This isn’t making my read any better. Something about your post feels off to me, and this flippant comment seems like a good way to distance yourself from an unfavorable lynch. Ehh. Disagree. This would have a hugely chilling effect on D1 contribution, and it’s easier to get info by lynching someone like xinoehp, who’s related to the focal controversy but not the actor driving the majority of discussion. I agree, again, that we need to level the information imbalance. I don’t think this would be the way to do that, and I think it would be a negative direction for the meta to head. Yeahh, don’t love the look of this. In some cases I’d consider it NAI, but here it feels a bit more suspicious than not. Alright. That’s all of what I wanted to note as I went through C1. I wanted to be caught up tonight, but considering it's nearly 5AM, that doesn't seem likely. I'll be sure to do C2 before rollover, and will do my best to keep up to date after that. Playing catch-up in this game was not fun - want to avoid it going forward, if I can

Hey, everyone! Unfortunately, I've got an essay due tomorrow, so I'm going to be a little busy for this cycle. Once that's done, I should be able to jump into the thick of it. I look forward to playing with you all!

Since we've got a bunch of new people here, I think it's worth plugging the SE discord server, too. We'd love to have you there! The link's in my signature, if any of you care to join.

Wasn't expecting to come back anytime soon, but as always a game by Joe is too good to pass up. I'll be in as Lord Laborn - my background will be filled in a bit more later

What the absolute storms happened here. Right, well, I’m going to look through posts again to see who tried to shape the lynches on constables away from Gaea. That said, one such person was obviously Alv. (Of course, it’s wholly possible the Elims saved him to frame him, but knowing what we now do about Gaea I concur with El’s analysis from last cycle - I’m willing to make this lynch)

Are we sure about that? Joe is... rather known for his love of secrets, and Lum flipped as Kleptomaniac.