Aanwolf
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OOC: Bonus post to respond to Zas. Last one coming shortly. Wolf sneered at his injured companion. "He may not have targeted my grand-daughter, but he clearly had no regard for the life of an innocent child who stood in his way. At first, I just wanted to report it, but when his house (I don't know if it was him directly) killed her parents... My son and his wife were my only surviving family. Everything I cared about had been taken from me! Everything!" Wolf calmed himself and shook his head. "I had no intention of killing anyone, other than Gavin, before I boarded this train. When the Coinshots botched the job, it was Gavin who insisted that people would die, innocent or not, until he was satisfied. As much as I do not like the Coinshot Clan, it was Gavin Gardre who backed them into a corner and pushed them to start killing people in a job that was never meant to have resulted in any deaths." "Yes, I killed. Twice. Both times to try to save my own neck. Yes, I argued that people should die, again to save myself. We. All. Did. And you and I both feel sick knowing that we did it. But if you are looking for who is most to blame for all the bodies on this train, then (as you pointed out yourself) Gavin has killed far more than anyone. If he hadn't locked us all up and turned us on each other, none of us would have died." Wolf sighed. "I'm sorry. You're right that I am at least partially to blame for this mess. I should have tried harder to stop the others from killing innocent people. And," he added, looking again at Zane's knee with sympathy, "perhaps if I had ever been trained to shoot a gun, a little pain wouldn't have caused me to miss. I don't blame you for being upset - you have every right to be. If it makes you feel better, know that I will have suffered even more." Wolf turned to the doctor-lawman. He stared at the badge, then looked the doctor in the eye with an intensity that surprised himself. "It was a good doctor who helped me when I needed it. I want you to live. You must survive if you can. You are a good man. I will take comfort knowing that you will survive, and that someone out there will remember my precious Anna and know the truth about what happened. I'm willing to die to make that possible." Almost as an after-thought, Wolf turned to Zane. "I want both of you to survive. I want both of you to remember." Wolf said it with sincerity, though he couldn't help but wince as he glanced once more at Zane's knee. He just hoped that the truth of his wish for Zane to survive would hide the fact that he knew the poor man wasn't going to make it. Perhaps if he played along with Zane's delusion, it would help. EDIT: Last words... Wolf sat back. "As for my plan? If giving you... er... both of you... the means to survive this massacre costs me the chance to kill Gavin... Well, maybe, perhaps, it will buy me a little mercy after death." Old Wolf gave a predatory smile, and the resemblence to the creature for whom he was named was uncanny. "Besides," he said softly, "I suspect that even if he lives, the attention House Gardre will receive due to Gavin's handling of this situation will not be pleasant for them. I don't imagine they will make life easier for him as a result." "In fact, the more I think about it, the more I wonder if House Gardre knew what I was doing all along. I wouldn't be surprised if they have other hidden means in place to deal with a Coinshot Clan plan that wasn't as secret as the clan thought it was. I don't think that Gavin knew about it, unless he is a far better actor than I imagined. It's possible that someone else in House Gardre set him up to fail. I'll probably never know. But I choose to die with the hope that he will soon face the ire of someone with the means to inflict greater punishment than I ever could." Wolf trailed off for a moment before another wave of pain hit him. He took another drink and wiped the perspiration from his forehead. "You are still in great danger. If Gavin simply wants me to die and hasn't considered the consequences of his actions, then he will likely kill me quickly to avoid making you suspicious, and you will be allowed to walk away. If that looks likely, I encourage you to leave quietly. However, I suspect that he understands the predicament his house faces and the implications of the fact that he didn't catch me until the very end. In that case, he will make sure there are no survivors to hinder his efforts to cover up the incident and preserve House Gardre's reputation. It might not restore the confidence of the public in taking this train in the future, but as long as they avoid the worst of it, Gavin may hope that even with the loss of passenger business, the continued utility of this train to his house could help him survive the situation. Besides, I've learned not to understimate the ability of a wealthy house to manage the reaction of the public and ride out any scandals." Wolf looked at the gun he had passed to Dr. McNinja. "There are two bullets left. Use them to survive. Do what you need to do. Don't try to save me - you would only lose the chance to escape without incident by turning away any suspicions Gavin might otherwise develop. Besides, I may have a couple of days left, but I'd rather not spend them like this. Dying will be a relief." Wolf looked off into the distance. "I must hope that my recent actions will not condemn my soul. Perhaps the survivor has given me this long so that I might tell my story, and that Gavin would face justice." Wolf turned back to the doctor. "Good luck." Old Wolf prepared himself for what was coming. He had to appear strong when Gavin returned. He refused to let Gavin see any sign of weakness in him. Let Gavin see him die with a smile on his face... OOC: Alvron, I really liked your idea about how it could end with us all dead. Unfortunately, with no assassin this turn, I couldn't make it turn out that way. I would have tried to win this last round, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized that I couldn't pull it off. Zas and Clanky were already very suspicious of me, and nothing I could think of would be very convincing to either of them, regardless of who I had targeted last round. The best I could do was see if I could make it to the last round. So, it was essentially a coin-flip on who to kill. Zas, as for the coin count, since I promised I would explain... Your math was good, though you guessed higher than my starting coin count (I was officially a poor coinshot with 1 coin) and I actually had a bit more than I had claimed. I was prepared to confess to spending 2 coins near the beginning to go to the passenger car as it sounded from others' posts like that could still net you a small amount if everyone cooperated. I would have also claimed to have used a med-kit on Alvron during a cycle when he got some attention and I was "worried" that the CC would kill him. I had checked with Ren earlier and confirmed that you wouldn't know a med-kit was used on you unless it was needed. I would have feigned ignorance on that, saying that I assumed Alvron was keeping it secret to avoid tipping off the CC, but that now that I suspected him, he may have withheld the info to retain the option of casting suspicion on me. In reality, there were a couple more times I had used the option to go to a non-caboose car. Finally, it left 6 coins unaccounted for, which I had used the turn before to go to the vault car (for the very reasons I tried to use to make my argument against Alvron more convincing). If forced to, I would have left it ambiguous about whether I was there then, had been there another turn, or there were some other explanation, claiming I didn't want the CC to have any clues as to where I was. It was a very close game. Again, congratulations to the passengers on the win. I had some great teammates in my fellow Coinshots, and I got crazy lucky. (The living through 50-50 rolls twice in a row was just one example of that luck.) I hope you all enjoy the ending. I'm curious to see what Renegade will do with this. So many possibilities, including the option that Old Wolf is lying yet again... Whatever Ren decides, I know it will be good. His writeups have been excellent. Thanks for a great game!
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Old Wolf looked toward the doctor without seeming to recognize him. Suddenly, he doubled over, clutching his stomach with a half-groan half-hiss. The pain grew in intensity and a stray, almost disembodied part of him assumed that he had died and was now suffering for his crimes. Then he found himself gasping for air as the moment passed. He quickly retrieved a clear flask of dark, foul smelling liquid from his pocket and took a deep drink. He slumped a bit in his seat and looked at the doctor once more, a wry smile on his lips. "It's getting worse. I suppose it's no more than I deserve." "The time since then is fuzzy in my mind. I managed to revert to my role as a professor and continue as if I were an innocent passenger. Sometimes I think I half believed it. Then there were dark moments, whispered words as we passed one another making suggestions and planning for the worst. I managed to avoid the chaos of the caboose, wandering among the other cars." "We did our best to find an opportunity to catch Gavin off guard and allow us to escape. At first it seemed like we might pull it off and they might even complete the theft after all. But Gavin was too careful, and he was relentless in his efforts to hunt us down." "As time passed, I began to think more clearly. I was relieved when, during my next assignment, Nails was clever enough to escape by hiding in the vault car. I'm sure the others were not happy with me, but at least I avoided getting more blood on my hands. I was caught between two threats. I had to appear innocent to the passengers on the one hand, but cooperative to the Coinshots on the other. If either group grew too suspicious, I would be dead before I could get to Gavin. I avoided hiring the assassin, saving my coins to try to protect myself. I was forced to cast suspicion on innocent people in order to survive. I think it was only due to the luck of the Survivor that I lasted so long." Wolf fought off another wave of pain. Then he shook his head and gave a bitter laugh. "Or maybe the Survivor didn't want me to have the luxury of a quick and painless death." He took a few deep breaths. "It appears the stress of this nightmare is bringing me to the end sooner than I expected. At least the physical pain is an effective distraction from the memories of what I have done.... Some of the time, anyway." "Well, you know most of it. The true Coinshots were found and killed. Fortunately, you managed to get them to Gavin before they could kill innocent passengers themselves. Unfortunately, Bridge's last words revealed that he believed there was still another clan member alive. In all honesty, I'm not sure it would have made any difference. I have become convinced that Gavin recognizes me. We never met, but the way he has looked at me the last couple of times we saw him... he knows more than he lets on." "After Bridge was... executed... I figured I wouldn't have to kill anyone else but Gavin. I was wrong. In a chance moment, Locke stumbled across me and something in my reaction made him suspicious enough to confront me then and there. I panicked and shot him. He had only stepped out of his car for a moment, so I was fortunate that suspicion fell on Nails instead of on me. It was then that I realized what I was becoming... what we all were becoming, but me most of all. If I didn't get to Gavin soon, I would be forced to kill again. I decided that the next time Gavin confronted to us, I would kill him or die trying..." Wolf turned to Zane with tears in his eyes. "I tried. But at the last moment, a twinge of pain caused me to flinch, and I missed. I'm sorry, Zane. I didn't mean for you to get hurt. It was an accident, I swear." Olf Wolf frantically searched Zane's eyes for some sign of forgiveness, or at least acceptance. He doubted Zane had the strength to kill him now in revenge, but Wolf desperately needed to know if Zane understood. If not, they would die as enemies. Either way they were both dead, but perhaps they could die... well not friends, but... allies, maybe? OOC: Last part of my story coming in an hour or two. Oh, and thanks Zas and Clanky for playing along.
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Old Wolf shook his head and sighed. "If only those were his only crimes...." he trailed off before continuing. "In the intervening months, I learned that the heavy drinking I had engaged in while waiting for House Gardre to grow lax had taken its toll on my aging body. I obtained assistance from a very good doctor, who did much to help me, but ultimately was forced to conclude that I had less than a year to live. There were methods to ease my suffering, but he warned me that they would only accelerate my condition. I gladly accepted the medications, the true reasons behind my decision unknown to that good man." "I had a revolver, the information I needed, and the means to survive and be functional long enough to carry out my plan. Unfortunately, I miscalculated. I underestimated House Gardre's caution and determination, and I overestimated the competency of the Coinshot Clan to pull off the theft and follow the orders of their leaders to do so quickly and in stealth. When the leader of their mission was caught, I realized I would have to think quickly to ensure this would end well. A combination of my advancing condition and the fact that House Gardre would certainly mark my identity as a passenger after the robbery led me to conclude that I would not get another chance to seek justice." Wolf paused again, and it became clear for the first time that beneath his act of confidence and strength was evidence of the chronic pain he was suffering. He gritted his teeth and composed himself. He stared down at the photograph on the table with an almost vacant expression as he continued in a slower, quieter tone. "During those first tense moments, I managed to quietly make contact with the members of the Coinshot Clan and indicate my willingness to help them succeed. I knew who they were thanks to the extensive research I had done on the clan and this particular operation. I was able to provide convincing evidence that I was a hidden member of the clan and one of sufficient influence that they should be willing to take my direction. They believed me, but it quickly became clear that they were determined to murder as many people as necessary in order to escape." A look of disgust entered Wolf's expression. "They suggested that I make the first kill. I tried to wiggle out of it, but that only made them suspicious. It was either kill an innocent passenger, or be killed myself. I may not have been a coinshot myself, but fate would see me in that role regardless of what I wanted. I wasn't even sure I could do it, as my hatred was only for House Gardre, but I am ashamed to admit that my will for self-preservation and my desire for vengence combined to motivate me to shoot an innocent man." Wolf raised his head and made eye contact again. The haunted look he gave them was accompanied by a barely audible whisper. "I killed The Silent Man." He grew silent and stared off into the distance. It became apparent that he would need prodding to continue.
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Old Wolf gave a deep sigh of relief. "Thank you. The first thing you should know is that I am not a member of the Coinshot Clan. However, I believe that I am the one Gavin Gardre is looking for. Part of me finds it incredible that he would go to such lengths to find and kill me, but I know enough about him to realize that this is simply one of many demonstrations of his willingness to destroy others for his own selfish ends." Old Wolf looked at the doctor-lawman and then slowly and carefully removed a small photograph from his coat's breast pocket. He looked at it for a moment, then placed it face-up on the table. It was a portrait of a young girl, perhaps five or six years old. She wore a nice dress and had the kind of smile that lit up her eyes and made others remark at how adorable she was. "This is... was... my grand-daughter Anna. Around the time she was born, I retired from teaching logic and philosophy at the school in Elendel a short walk from my home. I soon found myself spending most of my time watching her, caring for her, spoiling her. Those were some of the happiest days in my life, the first true joy I had felt since my dear wife had passed away some years before." The half-smile that had formed on his face faded. Wolf's eyes grew hooded and his lower jaw slid sideways. "Two years ago, we were on an outing when a large carriage came thundering down the street. I had turned my back for a moment to look in a shop window and hadn't seen Anna step into the road. I watched in horror as the carriage continued on, without slowing, running her over, killing her. I still remember the glimpse I caught of the man inside the carriage, the look of utter disdain on his face for a child who had carelessly stood in his way. As I held my dying grand-daughter in my arms, I vowed to learn the man's identity and seek justice." A coldness entered Wolf's gaze. "That man was Gavin Gardre." "Once I learned who he was, I went to the law and reported the crime. They seemed intent on pursuing the matter until I mentioned the Gardre name. I was given a half-hearted assurance that they would look into the matter, then dismissed. I waited one week then returned to follow up. I was sent away with more placating words, but I refused to give up. My continued visits were met with annoyance, then anger, then with a warning that if I knew what was good for me, I would leave the matter alone." "A few days after I my sixth attempt to seek redress, Anna's parents were shot and killed during what the law determined to be a typical burglary. But I knew better. House Gardre had sent me a message that I could not miss. I began to see subtle evidence that I was being watched. They wanted me to suffer as an example to others who would cross them, but they wanted to ensure that I had finally learned to give up. I had not, but I played the part, growing despondant, turning to drink and spending my days alone." "As their guard relaxed, I found ways to quietly seek help from outside the law. At great personal expense, I hired an investigator to obtain sensitive information about House Gardre. I had learned to be careful, so I did so through two layers of third parties. They were carefully selected to lend credence to the implication that the information was for a rival house of some influence, with the purpose of obtaining an advantage in business ventures." "I learned that House Gardre was developing a new steam train to transport valuable goods. I also learned that Gavin Gardre would be entrusted with the valued position as conductor of the new train, and by extension, as steward over the precious cargo. I knew of the animosity between the Coinshot Clan and House Gardre, but had determined to keep my distance from common thugs. When I happened to come across evidence that the Coinshot Clan also knew of the train and were planning to steal the cargo, things began to come together. I decided to board the train to see how things developed and to look for an opportunity to ensure that the coinshots succeeded in their theft and with the hope that Gavin Gardre could become an unfortunate casualty in the process. I had no idea that this would turn into the mess it has become." Wolf paused and looked back and forth between his two companions, gauging their reaction before attempting to continue. He didn't know if they believed his story or not, but as long as they let him finish, it didn't really matter anyway... OOC: Pausing for your reactions. The next part is written and ready to go when you respond...
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Old Wolf raised his eyebrow at the sight of the doctor's lawman's badge. He took his hand off the gun allowing the doctor to take it, then turned to Zane. "And you, Mr. Tevision? Are you willing to hear me out as well?"
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Old Wolf watched with narrowed eyes until Gavin left the car. Wolf's face grew dark with hatred. "That man..." he growled, shaking his head and turning to face the others. "He is a monster." A look of sadness came over his face as he looked at Zane's knee. "I'm sorry. I wish there were more that we could do to help you...." He paused for a moment and seemed to come to a decision. "Perhaps there is one thing I can do." He assisted Zane to a seat at a table and motioned for the doctor to join them "I have some things to say that will interest you and that I hope will help to take Mr. Tevision's mind off the pain." "Gentlemen," he sighed, "we have a dilemma. I suspect that Gavin will not be satisfied until we are all dead. At the very least, he is quite insistent that we choose one among us to die. I find that to be exceptionally cruel, but I don't see a way around it. So, the question becomes: who will we choose? I wish no harm to either of you, so I will make this simple. I suggest that we agree that I, Old Wolf, should die. I am willing to do this, on one simple condition: that you agree to listen to my story. I can see that you are skeptical. You think this is a trick. I assure you that it is not." "I have considered the situation in depth from all angles, and I realize that there is no way for me to convince either of you to hand the other person over to Gavin. Once the doctor came up with his plan for you to protect each other, there was no longer anything I could do to make a good case for me over either of you, even after pointing out this fact. This remains true regardless of who we assume is guilty. At this point I must admit that I have been outplayed." With that, Wolf turned to Dr. McNinja and gave him a nod of respect. "To prove that despite my predicament, I have no ill intentions toward either of you, I offer you this..." Wolf pulled a revolver out of his pocket and placed it on the table with the handle facing the doctor, but he left his own hand on top of it. "I believe this will come in handy for you when Gavin returns. I will give it to you if you will promise to hear me out. Consider it the last request of a dying man." Wolf looked the two men in the eye in turn. "Are we agreed?"
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i am on mobile and can't type much, but Zas: I will happily explain my coin purchases next round if i am still alive...
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Clanky, consider this: By suggesting the idea about the med-kits, Alvron deflects suspicion from himself in a clever way, making it more likely for the vote to go a different direction in a crucial round. Furthermore, he won't pay for a med-kit but could always claim that he used it on someone else instead. Since no one knows who gets the med-kit, and he's made a good case for being innocent by suggesting it, he is one of the most likely people to get a med-kit used on him, meaning there is a very good chance his kill will go through, and even if it doesn't, he's bought himself one last round (with lowered suspicion, especially since his strategy would have "worked"). Alvron is definitely clever enough to come up with that strategy. He's been very sneaky, and I'm getting more convinced he is just a really good CC.
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Just a note that Clanky's last post came in while I was typing my last edit, so everything I said was without knowledge of Clanky's post. I'm not sure if that is significant or not, but I wanted to be clear.
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Ha ha. I had just started typing a response when I saw there was a reply, so I refreshed the page. This is the first I've been able to be on since yesterday. Don't worry, I'm responding to you. EDIT: Here is my response. Since you seem so interested, I'll post it piece by piece as I type it. I have 7 coins right now, though I'm not sure that tells you much. I haven't had much luck with the passenger car either. There was only one time I was in it when it failed, but one time I forgot to PM my bet and two rounds ago you know how it turned out since we were both there. You bet 1 coin and I bet 0, since that's all there was. Last turn I was in the caboose by myself. I did not bid on the assassin because I thought others had more cash than me (based on numbers revealed for bids so far) and because I didn't know where anyone was. I knew there would be at least one room with two people in it, so whoever was there would at least know a target that wouldn't fail due to someone being in the vault car. Posting now and adding more later... EDIT: The vote history you posted does not look good for me, I'll admit. Bad luck on my part. My memory of the debates I got involved in is that I wasn't protective of those people as much as suspicious (and in some cases convinced) of the other person. You've gone through them recently, so say so if I am misremembering (I don't have time to review it). I do know that it's only been very recently that I've come under serious suspicion, so it must not have stood out to others too much. My actions made sense to me at the time, even if they don't look good in retrospect. I guess the question you have to ask yourself is this: If you believe that I am CC and that due to inexperience or some other error that led me to defend them too much, then that would mean I am not playing well. I admit that I've made a lot of mistakes - which is most of the reason why I've backed off these last few rounds, losing confidence that logic would uncover the CC. However, I would expect an inexperienced player who doesn't know better to end up revealing themselves much earlier than this - particularly since I have been posting so much. (Too much in the first week, enough that my wife started to get annoyed with how much time I was spending posting or doing math, etc.) Rather, based on comments others have made about the CC doing a good job, I would expect the CC to be someone who is experienced enough to know how to avoid suspicion from other experienced players. So take that for what it is worth. A few general comments coming in a bit... EDIT: One last thought. The point about Alvron being in the same car as the person who died is interesting. I didn't put too much weight on it at first because I realized (but did not want to reveal for obvious reasons) that once the CC are down to one or two players, paying to go to the vault car is actually a good strategy for them, since then they can kill whomever they want. So, I was suspicious of Jain and Orlok too since they were in the vault car that round. I deliberately tried not to say anything that would suggest I was aware of that strategy as I was hoping someone would make a mistake about it in their post. However, they both died, so there goes that theory. So, right now I am leaning to Alvron as the only one left who would have known that his car partner was not in the vault. However, there is still the possibility that Zas or Clanky (or myself from their perspective) could have picked a random person and hoped it worked out. But, since there were two of us per car that cycle and we were down to 1 CC at that point, the CC would have only known the location of one other person. If there are 8 people and 2 in your car (not the vault) then since placement tries to be as even as possible, there are at least two other people in the other open cars, maybe as many as six, with the middle range of four being the most likely due to some simple combinatoric considerations. That gives the probability of randomly picking someone to not be in the vault car between 33% and 100%, with an even distribution of people suggesting a 67% chance. If the CC is outnumbered 7 to 1, would it be smart to take the risk of hitting someone in the vault? At one point, I had thought Zas was a likely CC, but that depended on other people being CC who have since proven to be innocent. On the other hand, my assumptions of Alvron's likely innocence (and reluctance to vote for someone who was being logical) have largely evaporated based on how the rounds have turned out. Given that whoever is CC is doing a pretty good job, and due to the reasons stated above, I'm going to vote for Alvron. Final note, I want to ask Renegade: If someone was the highest bidder for the assassin but the target was in the vault car, what would happen? The target wouldn't die, yes, but would it be posted as an attempted assassination in the write up? Also, would it still cost the highest bidder his/her bid? If not, would that person be notified by PM about what had happened? EDIT: I forgot to mention that the reason I haven't been in the vault car is that I didn't feel like a target until recently, and I wanted to save my coins to get to the vault car if I did become a target, or to use med-kits to help someone I suspected was innocent. These last couple of rounds, I have come under fire, and the chances of being randomly killed are higher, but when I realized that the CC would have good reason to go to the vault once there was only one CC left, I realized it might not be as safe of a purchase as I thought, and going there would mean I couldn't use a med-kit on someone. Since I was trying not to reveal the strategy of a CC going to the vault car (in case the CC hadn't thought of it) I didn't want to say anything. I'm saying it now because this may be our last chance to lynch the CC and even if we get another round, it will likely be due to one of us being med-kit stabilized so the CC won't have to kill that person anyway.
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Well, that stinks. Even worse than eating your own shoe . I can't stay on for very long tonight, but I think we need to figure out what happened last round. Now that we know there is only one CC left, that should help us narrow things down quite a bit. So, I think it would probably be helpful to reveal where we were last turn. Also, since the assassin didn't hit its mark, it is probably good for us to figure out who bid on it and what targets were selected. However, I don't want to make that decision unilaterally, so I will wait to reveal those things about myself until others have a chance to chime in on whether or not revealing that information is a good idea. I don't see a good reason not to share info after the fact. Three of us are innocent and have three other suspects to consider. It shouldn't be too hard to get a good idea what to do next. Still, maybe someone else will see something I have missed. I'm inclined to save my suspicions for now until we decide what to reveal. Any thoughts on that?
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Well, I will vote for Jain then, for obvious reasons (not wanting to be lynched myself, and believing that lynching someone is in our best interests). EDIT: I will also point out that if Zas is correct in his assumption, that suggests that Alvron is CC. I'd like to say more, but I have to log off for a while. I will try to check in again before the end of the cycle.
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Well, the game seems to have changed a lot. It's a lot scarier with only six of us left. None of us (myself inluded) have voted for anyone yet. I'm assuming that is because at this point it is risky to stick your neck out. We don't know how many CC are left. If it is more than one, then we are in serious trouble. But even if there is only one, as much as I have no desire to die, it seems to me that not lynching someone at this point is a bad idea. Still, the fact that there have been no votes yet makes me hesitant. This is my first time playing a game like this where there are separate rooms or a vault car or a paid assassin. If any of the veterans have seen those elements before, are there strategies that we should be using as passengers that would help us? Am I right that not lynching is a bad idea, or do those elements I am not used to change that in a way I'm not seeing? The change in behavior (of all of us) is kind of freaking me out, so I'm holding back for now. I have some thoughts about what has been said so far this round, but I will wait a little bit in case there is a good reason not to share them. But unless there is, I want to make sure I do say something at least a couple hours before the end of the cycle, so others can consider it. And since it seems to me that we should vote continue to try to catch CC by lynching, I will commit to casting a vote unless someone gives good reasons not to. Perhaps it is different because there is an assassin this round? So my intention is to check back in two or three hours and see if anyone has any thoughts on those things...
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Yes, you are right. I hadn't meant to vote for Bridge, but for Bort. That doesn't change the count from what Orlok said. Is there anything on Jain besides being sort of quiet? I don't have time to do any more digging today, but I will try to do a brief check-in before the end of the cycle, in case something else comes up.
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Meh. I mentioned at the start of the cycle that I would let others come up with the argument and then chime in later. I didn't get on again until when I posted, and even as the last post in the cycle, the only reasons given for voting for someone (not counting mistakes or votes that were declared as pokes to elicit a response) were for Bridge Boy and Alvron. So, those were the arguments I addressed, and I explained my reasoning in my post. Was the vote for Bridge a foregone conclusion at that point? Yes. Does that mean I should not have voted? Of course not. I did what I said I would do (before there were any votes on Bridge) so I fail to see why that says anything one way or the other about me. However, look back at Bridge's votes and Bort's votes from last round. Bridge starts with a clear poke vote on Bort encouraging response and indicating he will remove it as soon as Bort participates. Bort posts, so Bridge shifts his vote to Orlok, also a poke vote. At that point there were two votes on Bridge. Bort increases pressure on Alvron with more argument and a vote. Orlok dismisses Bort's argument (though for a faulty reason) and casts the third vote on Bridge. Bort switches his vote from Alvron to Orlok, also phrased as an attempt to elicit a response from Orlok (though in a private thread rather than the main one). That changes the vote from 3-1 against Bridge to 3-2, with Bridge and Bort being the only ones who have votes on Orlok. Clanky had briefly had a vote on Orlok before but retracted it in an edit to his post. Still, he had demonstrated willingness to vote for Orlok and said his previous suspicions had been addressed, so it would have been reasonable for Bridge or Bort to hope that Clanky could have been enticed to vote for Orlok again. Bort did shift his vote to Jain not long after, when Orlok had responded. That seems to have been a poke vote, but there wasn't much discussion of it afterwards. Two more votes get tossed on Bridge Boy so it is 5 for Bridge and one each on Orlok/Jain. Bridge moves his vote from Orlok to himself, making it 6 for Bridge, 1 for Jain. I finally get back on and vote for Bridge as well. So, in summary, Bridge provokes participation from Bort as his first poke vote, then moves his vote to someone else when Bort posts. After failing to get support for a vote on Alvron, Bort joins Bridge to bring the vote to 3-2 (none on anyone else), though both of them have a reason in place to switch away if needed, and both do so later. Actually, while writing this, I noticed that Clanky's vote change happened later than I thought, so when Bridge voted for Orlok, that actually tied it up 3-3. Anyway, I have to run, so I'll stop here and get back on later. Interesting, though, that Bort is one of the ones who voted for me so far this round (and that he was after there was already a vote on me, though I understand that as it breaks a tie vote in which he was suspected, just like I'm voting for Bort to re-establish a tie in my favor). EDIT: Forgot to actually cast a vote on Bridge
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Interesting discussion so far. The only new arguments that caught my attention were the ones for Alvron and Bridge Boy. While Bort's points are worth considering, we have already had explanation why Alvron might not be participating as much. Alvron's explanation is plausible, and I'm inclined to support anyone who is being logical. Bridge Boy's defense is more suspicious to me. The reasons listed by others are good reasons to look at him more carefully. They aren't ironclad, but there isn't anything ironclad right now. But I have further reasons. First, I find Bridge Boy's confidence that it was Neo's turn for the kill interesting, not so much because it is an effort to clear himself (since the rest of us do that too), but also since that is something the CC would know, and other possibilities had already been mentioned in the thread that could have been alternative explanations besides Bridge Boy's being roleblocked. Second, changing your mind is one thing, but voting to poke at this stage in the game has the appearance of being helpful but isn't really. There is so much content to analyze, and everyone left has participated a reasonable amount (some more than others, but everyone has said enough over the course of the game to put themselves at risk for making mistakes). Finally, I get not wanting to accuse anyone wrongly, but voting for yourself is also not very helpful, except perhaps as a last effort strategy for clearing your name. There was a stage in the game when it seemed like everyone was doing it (including me) but it was pointed out as not good for us (and the rules changed to not give a coin) so I don't see a good reason for it, except perhaps to avoid providing fodder for analysis if you are killed and shown to be CC. So, it seems to me that Bridge Boy is the most likely candidate. If there are only three CC (which seems likely given how things have gone), then I would say Bridge Boy is definitely first pick. There is a decent chance the game ends this turn. If it doesn't there are two possibilities... I have some thoughts on where to go next on the off chance that Bridge Boy isn't CC or there is another CC and the game continues, but I'm trying to spend less time on the game (just have fun with it and not be so serious) so I am not going to bother developing those unless it becomes necessary. EDIT: To clarify, when I say Alvron's explanation is plausible, I'm referring to his explanation of why he happened to be in the vault car that turn. And for the reasons I mentioned later, I am reluctant to use vault car occupation as evidence for guilt.
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It's late and I'm tired, so no super long analysis from me for now. I'm sure you are all crushed I just wanted to formally apologize. It's been brought to my attention that I have not been following correct procedure in regard to multiple posting, which is to be avoided. That's my bad - I should have read the forum guidelines more closely. I guess they aren't as interesting as the game, but probably a lot more important. In any case, thanks for pointing it out, and I'll make sure to follow policy from here on out. I'm not sure what to think now anyways. I was wrong about leftinspace, and I think my look at peng is less plausible now that we know Neo was CC. Peng's explanation that he needed to vote early gives a plausible reason for his initial behavior, and while I still think some of the rest of it doesn't make sense in the timeline, it no longer seems like it points one way or the other. I made a similar mistake with Phatt's math and leftinspace, so... The fact that no one agreed with me and I wasn't killed (no I wasn't in the Vault car) leads me to think the CC don't think I'm convincing either. First time over-enthusiasm? I have been having fun doing the analysis, but it's also been way too time consuming, so I think I need to lighten up a bit. I will let someone else come up with the argument then, and maybe chime in with shorter (but hopefully still meaningful) comments on others' arguments.
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I'm sorry, but I have to go for the remainder of the cycle due to prior commitments. I trust that I have explained myself sufficiently clearly that anyone else could take it from here. Also, if someone wouldn't mind using a med-kit on me, I would appreciate it. I fear I have made myself a huge target. As long as we stay logical, I believe we still have a chance of winning this.
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One final note: Burnt, I don't think your post is rock-solid evidence against you by any means. It could have been a simple rules mistake, which should not be more likely for a CC to make than a villager. The problem with Gamma's mistake was not a misunderstanding of the rules, but that it was a misunderstanding that proved he was lying about something else that a passenger would have no reason to lie about. I wouldn't even have noticed your post if not for first noticing penguin's strange challenge of Alvron. Also, even if there were not something specific to hide, just keeping the vote between two innocents is reason enough for penguin to start a bandwagon. EDIT: Also note that for the reason stated in the last sentence, my argument does not hinge on whether or not penguin's challenge of Alvron was evidence of panic, so that argument alone is not enough to sway me, penguin.
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EDIT: forgot to type after quoting... But note my comment before. The disparity between confidence and evidence was even greater in Dow's case. I agree that Neo was overconfident, but Dow was way more overconfident than Neo, so why single Neo out?
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One more note: in the interest of full disclosure, if you do want to see strong evidence against Neo, look at round 4. Gamma broke a tie vote between Neo and Shallan. It is the only vote by Gamma I saw that was designed to nudge a delicate balance. This is exactly the kind of evidence I was looking for in looking for correlations. So, normally I would call out Neo on it, and we should not forget about it just because penguin is even more suspicious. If, as I have argued, penguin is CC, then that suggests Neo is innocent. If that were true, then why would Gamma break a tie vote between Neo and someone we know is innocent? The only things that I can think of are: 1... Shallan was more of a threat to the CC than Neo was. Justifying this requires examining Shallan's participation compared to Neo's. The only thing that comes to mind is that Shallan had a lot of money and was intending to bid on the assassin again. Although she was planning on spending it all that turn, it's possible the CC thought they could outbid her. The other options is that Shallan was starting to catch on to the CC, so we would want to look at her behavior in the time shortly before Gamma cast the tie-breaking vote. 2... Again, like I am suggesting with penguin, Gamma might not have cared which of the two were lynched, but breaking the tie forced the discussion to continue to revolve around them. Furthermore, if Neo was innocent, that meant that if the pattern were noticed, then it would lead to a false trail. In any case, if for some reason I turn out to be wrong, Neo becomes a solid suspect, and he should be next on the list.
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A couple more quick points I realize I hadn't stressed enough: When you called out Neo for being too confident, at that point both Neo and Dow had agreed to lynching, so I don't see how you could measure Neo's confidence as greater than Dow's. And since Dow hadn't provided evidence while Neo had, I don't see how you could judge his "right to be" confident to be less than Dow's. So, tell me please, how you arrived at the conclusion that Neo was the one who was more confident than he had a right to be. Second, the post where you challenged Alvron's evidence of the rule against buying a med-kit for yourself. In that post, Alvron had already provided a quote for it. So challenging that claim seems particularly rash/hasty/reactive to me. Did you panic at the point you saw Alvron point it out and so not read the rest of his post?
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Here is the problem with that reasoning: We can go back and look at the order of the posts and see that it is just the opposite of what you claim. First, Dow says here that he strongly suspects Neo because "things don't add up" and he is "highly convinced" Neo is CC. That is the second vote on Neo and there are no votes on Dow at that point. Then, Neo makes a strong accusation here where he provides an argument with evidence to support his claims. Bort agrees with Neo's argument here, independent evidence that his argument holds some weight. Note however, that Bort doesn't jump on the vote yet, as he still has other suspicions. Then you ask Neo here if he is confident enough to submit to lynching if he turns out to be wrong. Dow replies first, saying here that is so confident Neo is CC that he will submit to lynching. He still has not offered evidence, but will explain why later. You respond to this here saying you'll "buy it" and vote for Neo. Then Neo says here that he will submit to lynching. Then you claim here that Neo is more confident than his evidence gives him a right to be. At this point, Dow still hadn't offered any evidence at all. Note that this is the same post where you ask Alvron to justify his claim that med-kits can't be used on yourself. Neo explains his confidence here, that Dow started a campaign to lynch him (back with his initial vague statements of being highly convinced that Neo was CC). This is also where he starts to get suspicious of you for pushing it so hard. At this point, the vote is still 2 to 1 in favor of Neo being lynched. I find it interesting that you are the only one (besides those mutually accusing eachother) who has jumped on the argument between them so early in the process. This is when Orlok weighs in here and votes for Dow to tie it up. Note however, that he reserves the right to change his vote if Dow manages to post a good argument, so he is not nearly as confident as you are. It is only at that point that Dow finally gives an argument here why Neo is CC. Note that no one switched to vote for Neo after that, while Bridge, Alvron, and myself concluded (after seeing both arguments) that Dow was more likely to be CC than Neo, and Orlok kept his vote on Dow suggesting the same conclusion. Now, in fairness, I will say that as I am finishing up my analysis of Gamma's history, I do see good evidence to suggest Neo, evidence that has me strongly suspect him as CC, now that I have seen it. However, I find it odd that you were sure of the evidence against Neo being better than the evidence against Dow without mentioning anything nearly as strong as what I've seen. So, even though I think there is good reason (now) to suspect Neo (namely what looks like an effort by Gamma to protect him), it is not irrefutable evidence, and I'm genuinely puzzled by your irrational confidence, especially given multiple chances to explain. Your explanation is the worst one I could imagine, since it claims you believed things that were the exact opposite of what you should have believed. I want to vote for Neo after the patterns I've seen, but your behavior now only makes sense to me if: 1... You are CC, 2... Neo is innocent, 3... You committed early on Neo to create a bandwagon, and 4... You had no reason to recant later since the vote was kept between two innocent people. Your behavior polarized the debate between two people that kept the attention away from others. What attention would you want to keep away? It makes the most sense if there is another mistake that you want to hide. I find this post by Burnt to be especially telling. She also made the same mistake that Gamma did, and seems to be trying to cover it up. And since you later challenged Alvron on the same issue, I have double evidence that you are trying to cover for Burnt. Sneaky, but effective. I never would have caught it if I hadn't become suspicious of you due to your irrational behavior. So, I think I have made a clear case for jasonpenguin. As always, if I have made a mistake here, please point it out. Personally, I'm willing to admit that I made an error, and I won't call for anyone to submit to lynching to prove their confidence either. EDIT: Spelling only
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One more possibility I had not considered, but is not likely: If Gamma had the kill, then there is a slight chance that either he thought it wouldn't go through since he was dying, or that he did some weird revenge thing to sabotage his team, or that he stopped participating when he knew he was dead and discovered as CC and forgot that he could still target someone. Again, seems very unlikely, but I want to make sure I consider all possibilities (and encourage others to do the same) so as not to miss anything. It is late here and I am tired, so I've got to log off and get some sleep, but I promise to post my own analysis of Gamma's prior posts in the morning, as well as some thoughts on optimal use of med-kits in the late game. In the meantime, I hope that gets others to independently investigate either or both topics....
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OK, at the risk of distracting from my demand for an answer from peng, here are my thoughts on the CC kill. I agree with Alvron that the most likely scenario is that he was targeted by the CC, and the kill failed to go through. I do have a few thoughts on side possibilities, but that is what makes the most sense to me. If the CC targeted Alvron by mistake, then the possibilities seem to be 1...It was a dumb mistake and the CC should have known better. That assumes sloppy CC, which is not the way they have been behaving in general, though it could reflect a change that has occured over time as the pressure builds. If it was uncharacteristic, then it tells us nothing. If it was a change in behavior, then we can look for signs of that in past posts. 2...the CC who declared the kill had imperfect information. In this case either the CC didn't consider the possibility that Alvron was in the vault car, or it was a calculated risk. In the first case, my conclusions are the same as for possibility 1. In the latter case, either a... the CC had strong reasons to go after Alvron that tipped the risk/reward balance in favor of targeting him, or... b... the CC were willing to take the risk because the CC making the kill has a personality/attitude that tends to take risks, or... c... the CC had a backup plan in case Alvron was in the vault car that was good enough to make the risk a small one. Now, it should come as no surprise that since I have made accusations of sudden sloppy behavior, I am predisposed to go with possibility 1. However, possibility 2 has some interesting consequences that should be explored: If 2a is the case, then we should look for reasons why Alvron would be a high-priority target. If 2b is the case, then we could look for signs of that personality trait. If 2c is the case, then we should consider why the CC would be willing to not kill someone. So, let's consider some possibilities in that direction: i... the CC wanted to cast suspicion on the person who was role-blocked. Assuming our info about car occupants is confirmed, this only makes sense if the vote in the caboose was likely to land on someone that was not going to be lynched. (Or, there were no CC in the caboose and so they were willing to cast suspicion on anyone in that car, and got unlucky that it was the person lynched). ii... the CC planned to turn the failed kill into an attempt to turn suspicion on another specific person or group. That could be any of the groups I have mentioned so far: sloppy behavior, someone who wants to target Alvron, or a risk-taker. So far, I'm the only one who has suggested a group of one of those types (sloppy) with specific name(s) that might draw attention away from others. However, it is early in the round, and I have also given a good reason for anyone to look for ways to put anyone they suspect in any of those groups, so that would only make sense if I were confident I could keep the other groups from being considered seriously or I were confident that no CC would end up in any of those groups. Either one of those seems pretty arrogant to me. I may be confident in my reasoning, but that's only because I believe logic is objective and we can work on good reasoning together, especially since there are others still alive who have demonstrated sound reasoning. There are three more general possibilities that I consider remote, but I will mention them for the sake of completeness. First, as Alvron considered, it could be that an order wasn't placed because someone was not able to be online to do so. As Alvron points out, everyone was online at some point during the cycle. It is possible that someone was on briefly very early but waited to post until a bit later and then has something unexpected come up, but I don't know how likely that is. Second, someone could be lying about who was where, but this is easily discovered unless there aren't enough living passengers remaining to challenge it. I doubt that, and if it were true, we're probably all dead anyway. Third, Alvron could be CC and using the situation to remove suspicion from himself. However, this would either require him to spend a chunk of coin to get to the vault car or he wasn't actually in the vault car, which would reduce to the last possibility I considered and already discarded. Furthermore, it seems like way too risky of a move, and Alvron is a careful enough thinker that I find it highly unlikely he would give up a kill this late in the game to remove suspicion from himself when there wasn't much (if any) pressure on him last round anyway. OK, so what to take away from all this? I have identified three groups worth considering, and I invite suggestions on any of those that seem likely and who would fit those criteria. They are at the very least things to look for. I also want to encourage anyone who sees a further possibility or who disagrees with my analysis in any way to say so. Finally, I want to remind everyone that although the lack of a CC kill is new and surprising information, we should not forget to also use the info that Gamma was CC to help us identify likely accomplices. Especially since he is the only one we *know* to be CC. I guess the motivation to distract from that should also be listed as a motive for not killing someone last turn, though that seems like a pretty risky maneuver to me. Anyway, I would appreciate your thoughts/comments... EDIT: Grammar only