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Seonid

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Everything posted by Seonid

  1. Seonid
    Because your reasoning for voting on me is even more blatantly an item grab than Alvron. At least he tried to hide behind suspecting me of Dani's death. (Never mind the fact that if I were responsible, I'd have not said anything to anyone about having the Spear, and completely avoided suspicion.)
  2. Seonid
    Well, I have this weird rational thing called self-preservation, so I'm going to tie the vote by voting on Len. Personally, I begin to suspect Alvron and Stick. This sudden bandwagon seems like nothing more than a blatant item grab, and that seems much more like a Spiked thing to attempt.
  3. Seonid
    You know, this seems inconsistent. You claimed to have been attacked by the Survivor's Spear, and now you're asking what it does? That's...interesting.
  4. Seonid
    Shortly after posting, I got a Reilly to a pm that was opened d1. Coming back from a period of not paying attention due to the AG, I did not realize/remember that I had it. If you are in contact with the PM creator, then they should be able to confirm that I did not reply to it before they bumped it in my inbox. If they were paying attention, they should be able to confirm that the last time I looked at it before replying was shortly after it was created. Given this, I am, of course, much less averse to a DA lynch now. Still trying to get back up to speed though.
  5. Seonid
    Well, I'm certainly not a high priority PM target. I have received exactly 1 PM, and that was the one with everyone in it. I'll take more PMs, though! More than happy to talk with folks. And now that I'm dead in the AG, I might even get some suspicions written up.
  6. Seonid
    You know, I'm not a fan of shutting down our only known/proven PM role. I'd recommend against voting for DA, honestly.
  7. Seonid
    K. If the eliminators win the IKYK on protection tonight, then we're down to 11 (pretty likely, with 1 defense and so many confirmed villagers). Let's say we lynch hero and he's village. We're at 10 left, with 2 inactive and almost certainly 4 spiked. Then they kill again, and they control the lynch (unless Orlok was evil). Game over. Crap. I didn't think we were that close. When conq came back, I thought that gave us another lynch. We have to get this right. If hero is on our side, then we have a 4/6 chance to lynch correctly. If we are all on the same person. If not, we could leave the lynch in enemy hands anyways. And even if we lynch a Spiked thug, we lose. Things change if hero draws steel, or if a spiked mistborn does, or if the Spiked kill gets blocked, but that's...unpredictable. On the other hand, if hero is evil, there are only 3 left, and we've bought some time. We're at 5 to 3, but we have a much larger suspicion list. Either outcome is bad. We'll have to decide one way or another, thigh. Either trust hero and lynch from the list Joe put together, or decide he's evil and lynch him. If we're wrong in our choice either way, we lose. (Unless Orlok is evil - then we have a chance) I find the claim to have drawn bronze three times in 13 cycles to be... more likely than not, actually. Well, ish. Specifically, I find the claim to have drawn a metal 3 times in 13 cycles to be believable. It's not unlikely to get a metal twice before going through all 8. And if he did go through all 8, it's back to a 1/8 chance to get the same metal later. So bronze twice early, then going through the other metals, then hitting the 1/8 chance. It's not extremely far out there unlikely. Not statistically likely to have happened, but it's not astronomically unlikely. I don't have time to run the numbers right now, but I hope to later. TLDR: We can't afford to lynch hero to test his claims. If we lynch him, it has to be because we think he's actually evil.
  8. Seonid
    Joe or Hero, are Wilson and Stick's claims confirmed by Seeker, or were they smoked when seeked? The way you reported it (claims X) doesn't indicate whether they are confirmed or not.
  9. Seonid
    I don't understand why Elbereth was targeted, unless it was an attempt to make us lynch Stink - who had tried to get her killed. (Full disclosure, I interpreted Stink's statements to be a veiled claim of being a Seeker. For reasons which I hope are obvious, I did not want to draw attention to it. I was wrong, as Wilson so helpfully pointed out: even the random assertions of evilness are par for the course.) We're down to the wire, now. 12 of us left alive. With conquestor back, that's only 1 inactive (Wonko), unless Wyrm has been gone long enough to count. I'm guessing 4 Spiked left. That means that a single mislynch won't be fatal, but if we mislynch, lose a player, and mislynch again, I think we've lost. So this is our second to last chance. If Wyrm counts as inactive, we might lose if we mislynch today. (My numbers could be wrong) With that said, my strongest suspicion at the moment is Herwynbe. I don't have time to do a full analysis right now, but I really don't like how he seems to have been Teflon-coated with regards to suspicion. Following that, in order, are Wilson, Wyrm, and then Magestar. I'm slightly suspicious of Jondesu as well, but I find Wilson to be a more likely candidate for a WGG than Jon, and I suspect that the Spiked pulled at least one of those (not likely more than one, but possible). Wilson happened at the beginning of the game, the most useful place for one to occur. Later on, the Spiked would have had better targets based on activity levels, hints about roles, information gained in PMs, and so on.
  10. Seonid
    Inactive? Well... Can't fault you for that. I haven't seen anything worth voting for yet, unfortunately. I know that D1 lynches are important, I've just never been very good at them.
  11. Seonid
    Mostly because Stink's comment sounds like he has access to privileged knowledge.
  12. Seonid
    I think that I'll go with Elbereth. This is normal behavior for Stink, at least from my recollection. Hardly says anything in-thread, and is mostly active in PMs. We haven't had PMs hardly at all, so...mostly inactive.
  13. Seonid
    So would I. I really don't have anything on Orlok, he was just an inactive who hadn't been voted on.
  14. Seonid
    I'd like to hear a little more from me too! Right now, I'm actually most suspicious of Wilson. Yes, this implies a WGG. Yes, i know that Wilson doesn't like drawing attention to herself. Yes, I'm acutely aware that she'd do it in a heartbeat anyways if she thought her team had a good chance at it. In addition, several of her posts have rubbed me the wrong way. However, though Wilson is the one I'm most suspicious of, I'm actually not hugely suspicious of her. Just more so than anyone else. Therefore, I'm going to jump on a contribution crusade this cycle. I'd like to hear more from Locke
  15. Seonid
    I shouldn't sign up. I really shouldn't. My activity levels have been slipping again. On the other hand, I have needed a Troll!Joe game in my life. So to heck with it. Sheon Idris, now fully function and restored from temporary shade-ness, is visiting Luthadel.
  16. Seonid
    Manukos. He and HH are the gut feeling standouts for me. Sorry for my inactivity - I'm not going to sign up for any more QFs. That pace is brutal! It's the mid-game, and everyone is tired. Inactivity rises incredibly with game size. I wonder if @Elbereth might be interested in looking at those stats. It might be interesting to put some sort of player limit on these things.
  17. Seonid
    Looking at the actual vote tally, Manukos actually feels off to me. Assassin. Sorry, didn't realize that there was another viable target.
  18. Seonid
    I'll be honest. It's because I don't suspect either of you, and it's too late in the cycle to change the lynch target to anyone else. So I'm pushing it closer to a tie, so that we might get information from vote manipulations.
  19. Seonid
    I've decided that I'm not going to try playing a QF again. The place is too hectic. I've been following along, but I don't have any particular suspicions. I'm going to go Assassin, because I don't like the bandwagon on drake. It feels like a d1 lynch to me, and we're far enough in that we should have better than that. If this puts it close enough that vote manip changes it, at least we'll have something to talk about.
  20. Seonid
    @Herowannabe: based on the write-up, Matilda could have been protected by a Lurcher. That leaves her role wide open.
  21. Seonid
    Well then. I've retracted my vote for Wonko, and now I'm not sure who to vote for. When I get time, I'll go over the list of potential Rioters N1 and place a vote accordingly.
  22. Seonid
    I'm voting for Wonko, who is a lurker and a candidate for being the Spiked Rioter, and is a valid target for both the contribution crusade and for a lynch of suspicion. If another baseless bandwagon on Rae forms, I'm planning on opposing it with my vote. Just so everyone is forewarned.
  23. Seonid
    My logic was never "we couldn't lynch her, so we shouldn't try again." If you had read my strong defense of her last cycle, you would know that I was never suspicious of her to begin with. Rather, I voted for Nyali because she was slightly suspicious to me, and could potentially have been the rioter that tried to save Dalinar. Better that than someone I was and am convinced is innocent. When I saw that she had survived, my convent was literally to the effect that her survival had proved her truthful about having pewter that night. That's it. I wanted to vote for Wonko last cycle, but by the time I got on, the bandwagon on Rae was strong (and for reasons that held no water whatsoever). So I voted Nyali to try and save Rae. With that in mind - all publicly documented, by the way - my argument today has consistently been that I didn't think she was evil then, I still don't think she is evil now, and I want to lynch someone who I do think is evil. EDIT: And I claim no responsibility for the views of anyone else who defends Rae. If they are faulty, they are faulty, but it doesn't make my arguments more or less valid.
  24. Seonid
    Wrong. For those of us who don't believe that Rae is evil, and who can't find any merit to any of the arguments against her yesterday, lynching her again would be just as stupid as it was yesterday. If she was even moderately suspicious yesterday, there would be good reason to follow up today. But the only reason she got lynched was because the village was lazy and didn't bother actually listening and engaging with anyone who wasn't pointing at Rae.
  25. Seonid
    Well, we know that Rae wasn't lying about having pewter. That's something. Still think Nyali is more likely to be evil, but truth be told, I'm not very suspicious there either. The most suspicious person in my eyes at the moment is Wonko. Just a note, Stick's vote was apparently messed with (I haven't checked myself from last cycle, and am relying on information from up - thread). There are (at least?) four possible options here. Stick could have been Soothed. One of the no - votes could have Rioted Stick's vote to a no - vote. Or, Stick could be a Rioter that hit a Smoked target. Fourth, it is possible that Stick was hit by 2 different Rioters and that the vote was cancelled as a result. The first possibility is the most likely one, but the others are not out of the realm of possibility. Unfortunately, the answer to this question does not give us insight into alignment yet. Parting thoughts on the Coinshot. Ok beginning to strongly believe that the Coinshot (of which there is likely one - unless we want to believe that one or more Mistborn pulled steel for three consecutive nights - not impossible, but certainly not likely compared to the alternative) is Spiked, and is playing the "I'm trying to act like a villager" game. I'm not certain of it, but I've lost a game because I was certain that the eliminators didn't have another kill role (you know what I'm taking about @OrlokTsubodai), and I'd rather not dismiss my suspicions out of hand. If Lopen wasn't the Lurcher who protected Wilson, then there is at least one more. And if it wasn't the Spiked Lurcher who protected Wilson (either because of WGG or otherwise) then we have at least 3 of them. That's enough to make me think there could be a second kill on the eliminator team.
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