What We Know(and I think) about Odium's Dastardly Doings[Discuss]

[Karger he/him]

I feel like one of these is necessary.  With all the things that happened during RoW we are struggling to keep up.  I would like to go over Odium's current plans and address what I think are some common misconceptions.  I freely admit I can miss things so rather then just grumble about them privately I will publicize them so that they can be peer reviewed.

What is Odium bound by?

This one comes up a lot.  Taravangian states that he is bound by all previous agreements that Rayse made.  We know of two although there are probably others.  Firstly Odium made a deal to protect Kharbranth.  Here are the terms

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“Kharbranth,” he said. “Preserve only Kharbranth. You may destroy all other nations. Just leave my city. It is what I beg of you.”

“Kharbranth,” Odium said. “The city itself, and any humans who have been born into it, along with their spouses. This is whom I will spare. Do you agree to this?”

“Our word is the contract. I am not some spren of Honor, who seeks to obey only the strictest letter of a promise. If you have an agreement from me, I will keep it in spirit, not merely in word.”
What else could he do? “I will take this deal,” Taravangian whispered. “The Diagram will serve you, in exchange for the preservation of my people

A lot of people have stated that Taravangian is still bound by this agreement.  It seems to make sence.  Then you remember this passage in RoW. 

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And any other such plots would have to be executed in such a way that Odium either did not know what he’d done, or couldn’t act against him to remove Kharbranth’s protections.

and I don't really see how it could be still on the books.  Stabbing someone does not count as loyal service and since Taravangian is the judge in this case I can't see Kharbrath's protections really mattering.

The second deal is a bit more complicated.  Wit is safe from Odium's direct harm.  Additionally...

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“No more talk of delays, of sending me away. Of half measures. We have a contest of champions on the tenth of next month,” Odium said. “At the tenth hour.”...

On the tenth, our champions meet. If you win, I will withdraw to the kingdoms I currently hold—and I enforce an end to the war. I will even give up to you Alethkar, and restore your homeland to you(they also agree on Herdaz).”

“though I will be able to focus my attentions on sending agents to the rest of the cosmere, using what I’ve conquered here as enough for now. However, if I win the contest of champions, I keep everything I’ve conquered—Herdaz and Alethkar included. And I want one other small thing. I want you, Dalinar.”

“My life? Odium, I intend to be my own champion. I’ll have died if you win.”

“Yes,” Odium said, eyes shining golden. “You will have. And you will give your soul to me. You, Dalinar, will join the Fused. You will become immortal, and will personally serve me. Bound by your oaths. You will be the one I send to the stars to serve my interests in the cosmere.”

He took a deep breath. “Final terms are these: A contest of champions to the death. On the tenth day of the month Palah, tenth hour. We each send a willing champion, allowed to meet at the top of Urithiru, otherwise unharmed by either side’s forces. If I win that contest, you will remain bound to the system—but you will return Alethkar and Herdaz to me, with all of their occupants intact. You will vow to cease hostilities and maintain the peace, not working against my allies or our kingdoms in any way.”

“Agreed,” Odium said. “But if I win, I keep everything I’ve won—including your homeland. I still remain bound to this system, and will still cease hostilities as you said above. But I will have your soul

Alright.  We do not know what this contest will actually look like.  I personally think it is going to be way more complex then just have at each other with sharp objects.  It does seem like it ends in the deaths of one of the champions. 

Who will be whose champion is a topic of a lot of debate.  One particular theory comes up a lot but I think we should go to another chapter for Taravangian's view. 

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There was so much to do. He sorted through Odium’s previous plans and saw all their flaws. How had he let himself be maneuvered into this particular deal with Dalinar? How had he let himself rely so much upon a contest of champions? Didn’t he know? The way to win was to make sure that, no matter the outcome, you were satisfied. Odium should never have entered a deal he could not absolutely control.

That is some serious megalomania.  I hope there is a shard therapist out there.  Nevertheless I think it pretty well sums up why Taravangian's champion can't be Gavinor.  Even ignoring the possibility Gav would not be considered "willing" under the terms selecting him as a champion plays very strongly against his stated goals.  Gavinor cannot reasonably be expected to defeat Dalinar in any way I can think of so appointing him puts the ball in Dalinar's court.  Taravangian would never willingly do this.  Sure he does not think Dalinar would kill a child but he does not know this.  He learned the hard way of the dangers of underestimating Dalinar's choices back in OB.  Also this method does not really break the agreement it just delays it slightly.  What if Gavinor gets sick and dies two years from now?  The deal would go into effect then Taravangian's position could conceivably be much worse then.  What if Jasnah has him assassinated?  What if Dalinar ascends to Honor or even just buys two thousand breaths?  I don't think this would work.

What Taravangian actually decides to do depends on what he wants.  He wants to fix everything and save the cosmere(YIKES!) but we don't know how he plans to.  I personally think Taravangian is going to fake loosing in what is actually a tie so he can monitor developments and make a sudden move when he wants to.  Something like being his own champion but gas lighting Dalinar into a situation where the answer to the puzzle is the fifth ideal so they both ascend but then enforcing the treaty so that team radiant thinks they lost seems much more Mr T's MO.

[Aglaia]

15 hours ago, Karger said:

I personally think Taravangian is going to fake loosing in what is actually a tie so he can monitor developments and make a sudden move when he wants to. 

I really like this, because all discussions focus very much on that one single event, but the loophole doesn't have to have anything to do with the actual fight, does it? I think, how the fight of the champions ends doesn't really matter to Odium/ Taravangian, if he wants to save the Cosmere: As long as he cannot leave the system, he has lost.

But if at any point (before during or after the fight) the contract is broken, that frees him according to RoW 112:

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“Then the contract is void, and I am in your power. Same, but reversed, if you break the contract. You would be in my power, and the restrictions Honor placed upon me — chaining me to the Rosharan system and preventing me from using my powers on most individuals — would be void. But that is not going to happen, and I am not going to break my word. Because if I did, it would create a hole in my soul — which would let Cultivation kill me”

 That means that Dalinar could win the fight and still lose, if Odium can manipulate someone to break the contract. Your idea would give Taravangian the time for that.

If that's correct, the question is whether Dalinar himself would have to do that or whether one of his allies would be enough?

 

[Karger he/him]

2 hours ago, Aglaia said:

 That means that Dalinar could win the fight and still lose, if Odium can manipulate someone to break the contract. Your idea would give Taravangian the time for that.

Wow I did not even consider that but yes that is totally how Taravangian would play it. 

[WasingtheWhy]

Taravangian is clearly playing the long game. But I think that he is betting on Cultivation staying out of things, and based on her very precise manipulation of events, I don't see that she will. Lift is clearly very important to whatever plans she (Cultivation) has on Roshar, and it is unlikely that we will know the true purpose of Lift's powers until much later on.

And let's not forget that the Shard of Odium is still bound to the Rosharan system. Whatever Honor did trapped him there. Kind of like the Wheel of Time. The Dragon sealed the Dark One's prison, limiting his influence. But Cultivation isn't trapped. I think that Hoid is counting on that. With all the worldhoppers seeming to end up on Roshar, it's only a matter of time until another Shard shows up. And considering he wants to destroy them all, it could me almost any of the ones still remaining.

Taravangian I don't think is prepared for that.

[Karger he/him]

39 minutes ago, WasingtheWhy said:

And considering he wants to destroy them all, it could me almost any of the ones still remaining.

You think he still wants to kill all the other shards?

[WasingtheWhy]

Well, admittedly, he may not. His motivation's are very different from Rayse. But we don't know whether his wanting to kill the other Shards was a motivation of the Vessel, or of the Shard. Maybe Rayse hated all the other Vessels before Adonalsium was shattered, and the Odium Shard just reinforced his hatred? Or maybe the influence of the Shard itself is what drove him to have the whole "there can be only one" attitude. Either way, I don't think that Taravangian is going to play nice with the others.