Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Sage Kangaroo]

Do I have great timing or what 

[Mauve Crocodile]

Sage Kangaroo, no reason to divide the vote, might just end with us on different sides and give the elims more breathing room, and the potential of controlling the lynch

 

[Mint Heron]

Anyone feeling up for some modelling of how this game might go? I promise, it's not too hard

[ASSUMPTION 1]: We are at 5:4 today.

[ASSUMPTION 2]: The Sympathisers will make a kill every Night, and the kill will go through.

[ASSUMPTION 3]: If we ever start a Night turn at parity, the Sympathisers will make a kill that Night and the game will be over.

[ASSUMPTION 4]: No vote manipulation will happen.

1. Best case scenario

Day Ten 5:4, a Sympathiser gets lynched
Night Ten 5:3
Day Eleven 4:3, a Sympathiser gets lynched
Night Eleven 4:2
Day Twelve 3:2, a Sympathiser gets lynched
Night Twelve 3:1
Day Thirteen 2:1, a Sympathiser gets lynched
Night Thirteen 2:0
END, VILLAGE VICTORY

2. More likely scenario

Day Ten 5:4, a Sympathiser gets lynched
Night Ten 5:3
Day Eleven 4:3, a Sympathiser gets lynched
Night Eleven 4:2
Day Twelve 3:2, a villager gets lynched
Night Twelve 2:2
Day Thirteen 1:2
END, SYMPATHISER VICTORY

3. Worst case scenario

Day Ten 5:4, a villager gets lynched
Night Ten 4:4
Day Eleven 3:4
END, SYMPATHISER VICTORY

In other words, we will need four consecutive Sympathiser lynches to win. Two of them ought to be easy, since we already know that Kangaroo and Mouse are evil, but two of them will be harder. If we ever mislynch a villager, or divide the vote enough for the Sympathisers to control the lynch, we'll lose. Therefore, I'm proposing that we consider lynching someone who is not a confirmed Sympathiser, so we can get the hard lynches over with first. We're going to have to find those two other Sympathisers somehow, and it'll probably be easier when there's more villagery heads alive to puzzle it out.

A not insignificant point is also that I joined this game to have fun, and that pile of votes on Elephant with nothing else happening was anything but fun. If we all commit to a lynch on a Kangaroo or Mouse today, it's likely that we'll go through a 144 hour slog (or longer) waiting for them to die, with nothing actually happening during that time. TBH, I'd rather risk the game now, with the possible reward of knowing that the game is secured as long as there's no vote manipulation, than wait for Kangaroo and Mouse to die already, knowing that there are still two Sympathisers out there. (It could also make us lose the game a lot faster, but hey, patience was never one of my virtues  I reckon this will be the more fun option for everyone involved, anyways.)

To put my money where my mouth is, I'm going to vote on Magenta Albatross. On Day Eight, he tried to shift the lynch away from Mouse, saying that the lack of a bandwagon on someone else was making him suspicious, which was a reasonable thought for a villager to have. Yet later that Day, he retracted his vote from Mouse at the last minute with no explanation whatsoever, despite the very obvious hammer that was going on. That's inconsistent as hell, and very, very suspicious. Later he claimed that the Axolotl lynch would have gone through even if he hadn't retracted his vote, but it was stated in an oddly defensive manner, and included no reasoning for his retraction.  Furthermore, on Day Seven his trust list included Kangaroo and Elephant, while his slight trust list included Mouse, who he defended. Sound like a familiar list of players? Finally, during the Day Nine Elephant list, he wondered if I was evil for "talking as if game was over last night, despite that almost everyone, including outed Sympathisers, was acting like the game was going to after on Night Nine. It reads like a Sympathiser was trying to cast suspicion on a player that emerged from the Night with a lot of trust, and doing so with fairly shoddy reasoning. Overall, I think Albatross is a good bet for one of our two as-of-yet unknown Sympathisers. I'll be interested in seeing his response to this.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

I think that the elims might want us voting on Kangaroo. They're being so obvious, enough so that they might be an extra life role trying to soak the lynch for an elim win. Also, I think I remember someone saying that Kangaroo even claimed Elsecaller? We need to hit the elims in their more important roles, to deprive them of any vote manip they might have and especially take out their Worldhopper if they have one. Kangaroo is just to obvious of an elim to be one of their power roles. Heron has good reasoning for the Albatross lynch; they're helping the elims while trying to appear village. Kangaroo Albatross.

[Mint Heron]

3 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Also, I think I remember someone saying that Kangaroo even claimed Elsecaller?

Nolan (Dragonfly) said that Kangaroo claimed Elsecaller in PMs.

[Azure Mouse]

5 hours ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

Do I have great timing or what 

You had an unfair advantage, to be fair.

Scorpion

[Mint Heron]

15 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

You had an unfair advantage, to be fair.

Scorpion

Y'know, after the events of Day Seven I figure Scorpion's probably villager, despite his behaviour. Poor guy had two Symapthisers voting on him to save you. Haven't you done enough to him already?

[Azure Mouse]

Just now, Mint Heron said:

Y'know, after the events of Day Seven I figure Scorpion's probably villager, despite his behaviour. Poor guy had two Symapthisers voting on him to save you. Haven't you done enough to him already?

Nah.

Mouse

[Amethyst Scorpion]

You know, that reasoning on Kangaroo is surprisingly compelling. They might be lying about being an Elsecaller, but I doubt they expected the lynch to shift to Albatross specifically, and I agree that there’s at least a decent chance. I do want to try to actually review that, though, in case we’re being led astray intentionally or accidentally. I don’t know if I’ll get the chance.

[Quartz Zebra]

You know, I'm feeling Albatross at this point. Yeah, that's the right move, right?

[Azure Mouse]

15 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

A not insignificant point is also that I joined this game to have fun, and that pile of votes on Elephant with nothing else happening was anything but fun. If we all commit to a lynch on a Kangaroo or Mouse today, it's likely that we'll go through a 144 hour slog (or longer) waiting for them to die, with nothing actually happening during that time. TBH, I'd rather risk the game now, with the possible reward of knowing that the game is secured as long as there's no vote manipulation, than wait for Kangaroo and Mouse to die already, knowing that there are still two Sympathisers out there. (It could also make us lose the game a lot faster, but hey, patience was never one of my virtues  I reckon this will be the more fun option for everyone involved, anyways.)

I'm amused and sadened that no one seems to care that you want to create a discussion about finding my buddies, and they're all, for the most part, disengaging and playing follow the leader...

Ostrich

Edited February 12, 2018 by Azure Mouse

[Sage Kangaroo]

59 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said:

You know, I'm feeling Albatross at this point. Yeah, that's the right move, right?

Great move zebra.  Keep up the good work.  

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

34 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

I'm amused and sadened that no one seems to care that you want to create a discussion about finding my buddies, and they're all, for the most part, disengaging and playing follow the leader...

Ostrich

Just because we haven't posted doesn't mean we are disengaging from the game.

 

While I'm on, I'll throw this out there: If there were more than 4 elims right now, the game would be over.

Confirmed elims: Mouse, Roo

Suspected: Albatross

Mystery: 1 other. I've narrowed it down to Scorpion or Croc.

[Azure Mouse]

5 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Just because we haven't posted doesn't mean we are disengaging from the game.

It certainly looks like you are. And if you aren't posting you may as well be inactive. Just following Heron's votes around isn't much better. I'm not convinced that if he'd made an argument for literally any other player that all of you who have moved your vote wouldn't have followed anyway.

Albatross

[Amethyst Scorpion]

1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Just because we haven't posted doesn't mean we are disengaging from the game.

 

While I'm on, I'll throw this out there: If there were more than 4 elims right now, the game would be over.

Confirmed elims: Mouse, Roo

Suspected: Albatross

Mystery: 1 other. I've narrowed it down to Scorpion or Croc.

Well, it ain’t me. Not sure about that analysis, though Croc isn’t a bad thought. I don’t know about Albatross either at this point. Good chance, but certainly not guaranteed.

It could also be you, Ostrich. I think at this point I don’t fully trust anyone, but of course for now going after the sure bets seems the way to go.

[Sage Kangaroo]

11 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Well, it ain’t me. Not sure about that analysis, though Croc isn’t a bad thought. I don’t know about Albatross either at this point. Good chance, but certainly not guaranteed.

It could also be you, Ostrich. I think at this point I don’t fully trust anyone, but of course for now going after the sure bets seems the way to go.

This reads way Elim to me.  How can we be sure about your reads if you just claim you're suspicious of everyone?   And you're voting for the player you're not sure about instead of the two confirmed Elims?  That sounds like an Elim play to me.

Same with Ostrich, TBH.  Honestly, my two village reads at this point are probably Heron and Zebra.

I'll post a more detailed analysis in the morning, if I have time.  Which, hopefully, I will.  

[Pearl Chameleon]

I... uh... Albatross?

I honestly have no idea what's happening anymore.

[Mint Heron]

19 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I think that the elims might want us voting on Kangaroo. They're being so obvious, enough so that they might be an extra life role trying to soak the lynch for an elim win. Also, I think I remember someone saying that Kangaroo even claimed Elsecaller? We need to hit the elims in their more important roles, to deprive them of any vote manip they might have and especially take out their Worldhopper if they have one. Kangaroo is just to obvious of an elim to be one of their power roles. Heron has good reasoning for the Albatross lynch; they're helping the elims while trying to appear village. Kangaroo Albatross.

That generally would be good reasoning, but if you think Kangaroo is less dangerous to leave alive than the other Sympathisers, why did you start the Day voting for him? 

3 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Confirmed elims: Mouse, Roo

Suspected: Albatross

Mystery: 1 other. I've narrowed it down to Scorpion or Croc.

I think Scorpion is village, mostly due to the Day Seven lynch between Vulture, Scorpion, and Mouse. Both Mouse and Elephant voted on Scorpion, and after their vote manipulation only, not including Nolan's, Scorpion had a 50/50 chance of dying. The Sympathisers don't seem protective enough of Scorpion for him to be evil.

4 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

I'm amused and sadened that no one seems to care that you want to create a discussion about finding my buddies, and they're all, for the most part, disengaging and playing follow the leader...

IKR? >>

3 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

And if you aren't posting you may as well be inactive. Just following Heron's votes around isn't much better. I'm not convinced that if he'd made an argument for literally any other player that all of you who have moved your vote wouldn't have followed anyway.

 

Spoiler

Seriously guys. Y'all remind me of my students this semester before I broke them in a little >> If you want a mindless lynch then just say so; we can always go back to Kangaroo.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

2 hours ago, Sage Kangaroo said:

This reads way Elim to me.  How can we be sure about your reads if you just claim you're suspicious of everyone?   And you're voting for the player you're not sure about instead of the two confirmed Elims?  That sounds like an Elim play to me.

Same with Ostrich, TBH.  Honestly, my two village reads at this point are probably Heron and Zebra.

I'll post a more detailed analysis in the morning, if I have time.  Which, hopefully, I will.  

Interesting coming from a confirmed Elim. 

[Azure Mouse]

26 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

IKR? >>

<picture in quote>

Just trying to help

Crocodile

And thanks (I guess?) for supporting what I was just saying, Chameleon

Edited February 13, 2018 by Azure Mouse

[Mint Heron]

Kharsis arrived at the Thoughtful Eel during the town’s normal gathering time, and waited for people to arrive and discuss how best to rid themselves of the evil plaguing them.

No one came.

An hour passed by, then another.

A few people trickled in, but they all stood silently and standoffishly in the corners. When Kharsis moved to talk to them, they gave short, one word answers, nothing more.

Clouds passed over the sun, casting the entirety of Rennan into darkness.

Around the sixth hour, Kharsis found his eyes increasingly drawn to Sapphire’s broken body, hanging from the gallows. Nobody had dared to touch it, so there it had remained, bloating overnight. He sighed. He ought to feel happy at Sapphire’s death; after all, the man had been a Sympathiser of Odium. And yet...the grotesque, rotting shape that swayed in the wind like fruit did nothing but inspire despair.

Almighty above, there’s so many of them left, Kharsis thought. If we don’t get one today…

Details of a dream he might have had trickled back into his memory.

He had stood before such a gallows before, in another time, another place. Then, as now, it had been the arbiter of many deaths, too many to count. Then, as now, monsters had menaced the town, both from inside and outside. Then, as now, the people had turned on each other to root the evil out.

Tyrian Falls, it had been called. Destroyed by the Koloss and the Spiked, over and over again, trapped in the never-ending cycle of the Game.

Kharsis staggered at the weight of the memories, and their implications, still staring at Sapphire’s body. “Almighty above,” he whispered. “How can we defeat this? It’s already taken so many...”

People wiser than him had tried. They’d been given second, third, even fourth chances, and still they had failed.

He thought of his friends, of Drelan and Akedar, of his family, of Elion, Helina, Larsah, and Adani, of the remaining villagers, neighbors and pillars of the community. Against the unrelenting forces of Evil, they would all be bugs in a highstorm, crushed into nothingness.

Playthings in a Game.

And what would it even be for? Some half-remembered elephant-thing, a bored Creator with nothing better to do?

Angry tears ran down Kharsis’s face.

“We’ve all got some sort of purpose, I reckon. And if we ran away from the Game, would we even live? I mean, it’s better to live, for even a few days, than to never have lived at all, isn’t it?”

Easy words for a Creator to say. Easy words for a Creator to stuff in the mouth of an already dead puppet, to spew out from the safety of a room with comfortable armchairs and hot mugs of tea. Easy words for a Creator to think, safely ensconced in a world that would never feel the machinations of the Game.

Kharsis wiped his eyes with the backs of his hands, glaring at the sky.

“Storm you!” Kharsis screamed out. “Storm you, Kasimir!” The words felt satisfying on his tongue, so he repeated them, over and over, out into the indifferent world, before the dead body of a Sympathiser of Odium. He did not care if anyone saw him, screaming profanities to the air. Let them judge. He kept on yelling, against the injustice, the inevitability of it all.

“...Braize would be too good for you, Kasimir! I hope you die in a fire!...”

Eventually his voice wore out, and he could rage no more. The insulating heat of these words dissipated, once again exposing him to the chill of despair.

Kharsis slumped to the ground.

From its position high in the gallows, Sapphire’s corpse leered at him.

You’ve won, or you’re going to, Kharsis thought to the dead body in front of him. We’re doomed.

He sat in a void, drained, broken. The weight of the evil that haunted this town -- Odium, Ruin, The Traitors, it mattered not -- pressed down on him, crushing him.

He couldn’t even cry anymore, damnit, for his eyes had cried as much as they could.

Twin sets of ghostly hands reached for his. Kassien and Karnad. A healer and a messenger, he felt. They had been here before. Been in a town infiltrated by the agents of evil, where monsters marched towards them, where the people banded together to drive the evil out. And they had failed. Died with a spike to the throat and a shove off a ramp, respectively.

They knew Kharsis’s pain. After all, they had been through it too.

More ghostly hands reached out for Kharsis. Kai, a young man who was definitely not Wyrm’s half-brother. Kasimar, a trusting fool of a Voidbringer. Kassel, an amatuer logician. The ones from the room, and others, too.

A few of them had survived. Most of them had died, some of them too early to help with catching the evil at all. Some had been the evil. Some of them had succeeded in driving the evil out. All of them had lived, burned with a brilliant, gem-like flame.

Kasimir had been sad to see them go, but there were things that even he could not do, within the constraints of the Game.

The oppressive heaviness around Kharsis lightened, just a smidge. The clouds covering the sun opened, just slightly. Sapphire’s body no longer looked so menacing in the golden rays of sunlight.

“Thank you,” Kharsis whispered.

He stood up, and went home.

 

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

3 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

That generally would be good reasoning, but if you think Kangaroo is less dangerous to leave alive than the other Sympathisers, why did you start the Day voting for him?

I was unwell before and during last turnover. Around turnover, I didn't feel like posting much if anything. I saw turnover go down, I logged in with this account, and put my vote on the easy lynch. I felt a bit paranoid once I got a little better because I didn't think of myself as the most qualified to lead a lynch (I don't even have any active PMs), but my vote was down and I didn't want to get lumped in with the elims by switching it away from the bandwagon. Then you posted, offering an alternative lynch on Albatross, and I figured you were more qualified than me to choose a lynch target. However, when I read your conjecture that the elims want us to vote on the easy targets first, I remembered someone saying that the elims likely have a Worldhopper. I figured, "hey, we need to take that dude out before he (or she I guess) draws a vig-kill and evens the game". Your reasoning for going for a different elim was based on ending the game early, but mine was different so I posted it. But for that I needed a person to vote on, and your logic on Albatross seemed sound, so down my vote went.

Later, I finally started feeling up to looking back into the thread, so I went back and checked the votes the day Mouse was saved. Sure enough, Albatross was there as I had remembered with the funky vote retraction. Also assisting in that were Scorpion and Croc, both of them putting their votes down at the beginning, and suspiciously enough that I had called them on it. They became my suspicions for the third and fourth elims, which I posted into the thread.

Unfortunately, I'm still not at 100%, or even at 75%. I'm running a solid 50-or-so right now.

 

@Amethyst Scorpion I'm getting the vibe from you that you might be Elenion. Are you willing to comment on that?

[Azure Mouse]

4 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

Epic RP

I would upvote you if this account let me

Also, we've recently had an opening on our crew. How 'bout it? Care to serve the Diagram?

Heron (you just happened to be next...)

 

[Mint Heron]

5 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

I would upvote you if this account let me

Also, we've recently had an opening on our crew. How 'bout it? Care to serve the Diagram?

Heron (you just happened to be next...)

 

Thanks :>

I appreciate the offer, but no thanks. I hate being evil and at this point there's no way I can finagle Kharsis into doing it.

I wouldn't mind being able to talk in the Sympathiser doc with you, though 

[Mint Heron]

Vote Tally:

Kangaroo (1): Ostrich <1>, Scorpion <1>, Crocodile <1>

Albatross (5): Kharsis (Heron) <1>, Ostrich <2>, Scorpion <2>, Zebra <1>, Mouse <4>, Chameleon <1>

Scorpion (0): Mouse <1>

Mouse (0): Mouse <2>

Ostrich (0): Mouse <3>

Crocodile (0): Mouse <5>

Kharsis (1): Mouse <6>

We have five votes on Albatross. Hopefully they're all village, but as much as I wish it was so, I wouldn't count on it. 

Albatross is the only player who hasn't put down a vote, and at this point in the game, with about three and a half hours to go until rollover, that seems like a sign of either a defeated Sympathiser or extremely negligent villager. 

We need as many players as we can to watch the thread around rollover and watch out for a hammer. If enough of us are online, we might be able to stop it or force a tie. So please, watch this thread.