Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Amber Vulture]

11 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

If Weasel flips village, I’m going to take a really close look at the Elsecaller I contacted, as I think my role analysis from before still has merit. If he flips Elim, I’ll be a lot happier.

Ehhh, I’m rather hesitant about this. I dislike voting by role distribution, especially since that can be randomized with respect to balancing, but what’s more, 2 Elsecaller lynches in a row could spell the end of the village. We’ll keep taking hits as we spend 4 turns lynching 2 people. I’m not sure I like this plan. Agreed that it’d be much happier if Weasel flips Elim, though  

[Sage Kangaroo]

6 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

No, I'm not just concerned by PM readers, though they do make everything worse >>

Ah well. I would rather not derail this thread but this is worth saying. It'll probably reveal who I am, but I haven't been that careful about that this game. Besides we all know what Hume said about the passions, amirite?  

 Let me tell you a story. It's a good one, I promise, full of magic and broness and, of course, betrayal. -snip-

(Greatest Story Ever Told)

-snip-

THE END

Thank you for that.  That pretty much made this cycle for me.  

Anyway, I just felt the need to say that.

And to agree.

My Most Awful Moment was brought about by a despicable PM manipulator.  So be careful guys.

Even if I'm not.

I never learn anything.

 

[Sunburst Toucan]

Vanna had left the central square shortly after noon. the decision to lynch weasel had been made, and though she didn't really agree with it, she saw no good reason to fight it either. Some people would no doubt see her leaving as an attempt to distance herself from what would happen when night fell. maybe they where right.

She'd never really seen god reasons to think weasel guilty, but she hadn't seen anything to believe him innocent either. Now, with the way people had worked themselves up over it, it was simply necessary to know whether he was guilty or not. If he was then some people at least could be considered innocent because of their role in taking weasel down. If he was innocent, then a look could be taken at those that pushed for a relynch today while pretending to have actual arguments. She'd tried to get a better explanation from the lynch out of Ostrich, but he'd remained stubbornly silent, so if weasel was innocent, that would be a good person to look into more.

Vanna's wanderings had one again led her to a ledge overlooking the outside world. It was pretty much the same as it had been that morning. Maybe there where a couple of smoke plumes closer to the village, but nothing else had changed. For as long as she'd lived in the village, coming out here had brought the urge to draw or paint out. When the Desolation had begun the vista still had inspired awe within her, even as the signs of destruction spread and multiplied.

But now, she felt no urge to draw. The expanse before her looked boring and overly familiar, like the wall of a cell that she'd spent too many days studying in detail.

[Onyx Flamingo]

 

 

So if I counted right this is the current vote tally:

Weasel(6): Dragonfly, Ostrich, Scorpion, Kangaroo, Axolotl, Chameleon

everyone else(0):

5 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Will be on next cycle. Kind of disappointed in the lack of discussion this cycle. Oh well.

Yeah sorry I wasn't on earlier I had to replace my modem last night.  that being said with the vote count the way it is it seems like everyones minds are already made up. I personally don't know how weasel will flip, I could see it going either way, and I don't really have a better candidate in mind to propose yet.

I do agree that the elims seem to be targeting the villagers who are near less activity or only slightly more active. Not sure why yet. As for otehr reasons they could have targeted rhino there was only a vote on Toucan that was removed later in the cycle. Oh and while I was going through his posts I found this @Azure Mouse

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Oh, and @Plum Rhinoceros

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This post sounds a little non committal to me. I think you should still vote because if you don't get a chance to get back on then you don't add to the lynch and people tend to skim over that sometimes because they're so focused on who did actually vote. 

That's fair. And I did end up missing the end of cycle (I got on only a few minutes before, and cycle closed as I caught up on the last dozen posts). I'll do that this next cycle.

So don't forget to do it today it was one of Rhinos last requests 

11 hours ago, Violet Axolotl said:

Very well.  Note that it is just as pertains to Weasel.  I have been concentrating mostly on the three I named so it's not all that accurate yet.

	Base Elim %	Weasel Elim	Weasel Village
Albatross	39%	39%	42%
Chameleon	49%	56%	49%
Crocodile	58%	61%	56%
Dragonfly	46%	61%	39%
Elephant	61%	63%	61%
Falcon	59%	59%	55%
Flamingo	50%	64%	49%
Heron	51%	45%	52%
Kangaroo	48%	52%	48%
Mouse	64%	79%	58%
Ostrich	59%	61%	55%
Scorpion	49%	51%	44%
Toucan	45%	35%	45%
Vulture	33%	33%	33%
Weasel	87%	N/A	N/A
Zebra	66%	56%	81%

interesting, So Axolotl according to your system what are your percentages?

 

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

After Sage Kangaroo's last comment I think I know their real username. Same with Axolotl and Scorpion. It's going to be fun to see if I'm right about them.

I'll deliver my promised analysis of Mouse after I exercise and go cash my paycheck.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

14 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Weasel lynch seems to be a given at this point, but I'd just like to point out that Scorpion's posts have a tone that *feels* very similar to what I use sometimes as an Elim to deflect suspicion. Acknowledging suspicion without being concerned by it, (vaguely annoyed at most) letting vague accusations slide off with equally vague rebuttals, or just plain indifference. Hiding behind a lack of investment, either real or feigned.

Of course, that could just be an indifferent villager. Something I will continue to look at nonetheless. Regardless how Weasel flips I wouldn't be against a Scorpion lynch tomorrow, although I do hope to spend some time looking at other suspicions to avoid digging myself too deep of a tunnel. 

It’s not how I always act, but it’s definitely more of the indifferent villager. Not to the game itself, but to the suspicions I inevitably garner. It’s rare I make it through a game without being lynched, assuming the Elims don’t kill me first, but I have fun. 

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Before I get started on Mouse I just remembered that Toucan asked for a summary of the evidence I said was gathered against Weasel:

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Now that I’ve gone through the whole village, I’ve looked at Toucan’s posts. I told Flamingo this in PM, but I might want a Toucan lynch if Weasel flips Elim. Weasel flipping Elim would (somewhat) justify Axolotl’s system, and Toucan does seem to be trying to swing the lynch towards Albatross, who I’ve consistently said I have a very village read on. That said, I think she’s being misconstrued a bit. At least to me, she feels a lot like Swan did from D2 when she was lynched. And who instigated that lynch before the PM swung it on to her? Oh yeah, Weasel. Which is why my vote is where it is. That and the lynch seems to be getting yanked away from Weasel by several attempts, and I’m beginning to wonder if that’s because Weasel is truly guilty. 

So yes, a Toucan lynch would impart information, but not as much as people are implying. Sure, we know if she’s cleared or not, but if she flips village, everyone involoves in the lynch will apologize and distance themselves. Then we get nothing. So, sticking to the vote on Weasel.

-Ivory Dragonfly

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There's something about their tone that I don't necessarily like. Hard to pin down though. Really don't like their vote on Meerkat though...  (Day 4) probably slight maf lean.

-Azure Mouse

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I will cast my vote for Weasel for now because if he can't be bothered to show up in the last 24 hours I can't think of a reason a villager would do that besides RL but I can think of reasons an elim might try to appear inactive. That paired with the fact that several days ago weasel was the first to vote for swan not beagle which no-one brought up at all when everyone was accusing beagle of swinging everything.

-Onyx Flamingo

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As for activity, we can help that along by voting early in the cycle.  Even if it has little to back it up.  I'll start.  My new voting system has revealed to me that there is a 87% chance that Weasel is an elim.  I'm not going to explain why as that would contaminate following cycles information.  This is how I will be doing all my votes so don't expect anything more.  

-Violet Axolotl

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As for activity, we can help that along by voting early in the cycle.  Even if it has little to back it up.  I'll start.  My new voting system has revealed to me that there is a 87% chance that Weasel is an elim.  I'm not going to explain why as that would contaminate following cycles information.  This is how I will be doing all my votes so don't expect anything more.  

-Ivory Dragonfly

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Going back over Weasel's posts (from day 2 onwards because I'm tired and day 1 is chaotic anyways), I feel like they switch around their suspicions a lot. Which isn't suspicious in and of itself but... Something about it is coming off as not genuine. The reasons themselves are sound. But after a few posts, I feel like they're trying to maintain a pattern. Contributing but keeping themselves flexible enough so that they can switch votes without casting suspicious on themselves. So they can vote on an elim, if that vote catches on, they can switch their vote to a villager, etc. It's very convenient. This could just be a move by an innocent villager, but this is one of the best elim suspicions I've got at the moment. It was the post by Weasel that I've quoted above that really made me go back and look at their posts.

-Pearl Chamelion

And then on to Mouse. I mentioned last time that it was his last post that gave me a funky gut read; it was actually the one here with all of his reads. I guess what I don't like about it is that he reads village on basically everyone other than the bandwagon target. Because in my experience reads are often the same both directions (i.e. if X trusts Y, Y likely also trusts X), and so he could be looking to gain trust by not calling anyone out. Thing is, it doesn't take a master logician to point out that it could just be him being truthful about a bunch of actual village reads, so it looks like my initial negative gut read on their post was unjustified.

[Sunburst Toucan]

"Hmmm, so weasel was the one to start the lynch against Swan back during the second day? Most of the other evidence seems to be just people having bad gut-reads, and axolotl's as-of-yet unproven system, but that is something that might actually be a clue." Vanna thought back to what Weasel had been doing and saying back then.

Spoiler

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I'm going to put my vote on Flamingo. Maybe I'm wrong, but it looks like Beagle and Albatross are trying to switch the lynch off of Flamingo, and taking advantage of a fairly minor statement to do so. While I am definitely suspicious of Axolotl, I think that it is a legitimate question to ask why someone is emphasizing a tie for second place in the lynch rather than the current leader. I read that vote as a sort of poke vote, since it specifically asked for an explanation. I would rather lynch Taupe for not giving us the analysis they promised, but nobody else seems willing to buy that and if Flamingo flips elim this will give us a good place to go next.

-Swan

Well they trying not to lynch person whom they think that probably villager... What reasons you have to not trust them more than to anyone else in this game? If I remember right it's not the first time when you stating that counteracting to them(or atleast counteracting to Beagle). If you think that Beagle or Albatross is elim why not lynch them then you would know that Flamingo is probably also elim... I absolutely don't understand what you trying to achieve. Swan.

-Weasel

 

"Okay, so he seemed to be misinterpreting, or maybe purposefully misrepresenting, Swan's vote on flamingo back then. That same post was also used by beagle as a reason for voting on Swan. Hmmm, Nolan ( @Ivory Dragonfly) was there anyone in particular who provided that as important evidence for lynching Swan in the Oxblood group? It's probably nothing, but if Weasel does prove to be evil, then this might be something to look into." Vanna forced her thoughts back to the present. It wouldn't do to start planning for a case  which weasel was guilty as long as that hand't been proven yet.

Edited January 30, 2018 by Sunburst Toucan

[Onyx Flamingo]

46 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

"Okay, so he seemed to be misinterpreting, or maybe purposefully misrepresenting, Swan's vote on flamingo back then. That same post was also used by beagle as a reason for voting on Swan. Hmmm, Nolan ( @Ivory Dragonfly) was there anyone in particular who provided that as important evidence for lynching Swan in the Oxblood group? It's probably nothing, but if Weasel does prove to be evil, then this might be something to look into." Vanna forced her thoughts back to the present. It wouldn't do to start planning for a case  which weasel was guilty as long as that hand't been proven yet.

In the conversation I said I was suspicious of Rhino and Swan but I didnt have anything concrete on them. I then said that Axo did feel off somehow but I didn't want to switch my vote after I just barely voted for gecko (man looking over this I have a horrible track record for my gut... ). Beagle said if axo flips elim then it would be alright. I was going to bring this up once we see what weasel turns up but in the conversation I mentioned that I saw weasel online and I wanted to see what he said in the thread before deciding whether to change my vote to axo for self preservation or not because earlier weasel said:

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Weasel-

You in fact accusing me in thing in which I accused Flamingo, I honestly don't see where my reasoning is flimsy. And I don't see from where you can find not flimsyreasons on turn 2.

In fact I can accuse you in same thing in which you accused me if you think that my reasons is flimsy... this confusing...

Edit. Also after PM from Flamingo he\she looks more like new player, not elim who tried to throw some random suspicions. Or that can be some kind of trick... hmm... need to think about this little bit more.

so I was hoping that he would take his vote off me once he posted... which he did in this post

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Okay, as I stated earlier Flamingo is probably new player, so his behavior is looks more understandable now for me. And I absolutely don't understand why people jumping on Flamingo lynch.

  On 1/18/2018 at 0:00 PM, Coral Swan said:

I'm going to put my vote on Flamingo. Maybe I'm wrong, but it looks like Beagle and Albatross are trying to switch the lynch off of Flamingo, and taking advantage of a fairly minor statement to do so. While I am definitely suspicious of Axolotl, I think that it is a legitimate question to ask why someone is emphasizing a tie for second place in the lynch rather than the current leader. I read that vote as a sort of poke vote, since it specifically asked for an explanation. I would rather lynch Taupe for not giving us the analysis they promised, but nobody else seems willing to buy that and if Flamingo flips elim this will give us a good place to go next.

Well they trying not to lynch person whom they think that probably villager... What reasons you have to not trust them more than to anyone else in this game? If I remember right it's not the first time when you stating that counteracting to them(or atleast counteracting to Beagle). If you think that Beagle or Albatross is elim why not lynch them then you would know that Flamingo is probably also elim... I absolutely don't understand what you trying to achieve. Swan.

After that post Albatross said he thought weasel made a good point and that he was surprised he didnt think of that. Beagle then said he noticed Axo was online and would probably vote for me in self preservation so I probably should vote for him in self preservation. I said I wanted to see what he had to say first which is when Axo posted that message.

After that we talked about worrying about Axo in real life and hoping he is ok and whether we should move our votes. Beagle suggested we move the votes to swan and was talking to elephant (who wasn't in this original PM) and was suggesting he do the same.

We then expressed that we really hoped that swan flipped elim and albatross pointed out that the elims would use this flop against us tomorrow.

 

I was going to share this thought once I knew weasel was elim or not but if weasel was elim someone in the PM group could have tipped him off to take the vote off of me to gain some mode of trust in the PM group because better to kill a distrusting villager than trusting one. It would also expalin why weasel waited so long ot take the vote off of me after his original post saying he thought I was just a new player. Of course if weasel is village these suspicions are moot but thats what I was currently thinking.

@Sunburst Toucan hopefully that gives you enough details.

Edit: I forgot to mention that Nolan(dragonfly) was not on during most of this as he had school or track or something so he was not an active participant in any of this real time until after the cycle ended.

Edited January 30, 2018 by Onyx Flamingo

[Quartz Zebra]

Gah. There seems to be little choice, so I'll vote on Indigo Weasel - I wish I'd focused more on the current day earlier so I could raise an alternative lynch candidate - I don't like how much the focus on Weasel has stifled other conversation. Hopefully, my reread of the thread will be published tonight, which should help to provide new talking points.

On the reread, I'm finding Heron's posts to be quite suspicious, but I can't quite put into words how, except as a gut read. I'm hoping to post a more thorough analysis of them in particular, but I'm not sure I'll be able to. (Sorry Heron - I hate it when people call me an Elim for 'gut reads' I can't defend against - I'll try and work out what it is that's bugging me for you to be able to respond to properly.)

(Also, I know exactly which player Heron is now. Interesting.)

[Violet Axolotl]

15 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

Ah well. I would rather not derail this thread but this is worth saying. It'll probably reveal who I am, but I haven't been that careful about that this game. Besides we all know what Hume said about the passions, amirite?  

Let me tell you a story. It's a good one, I promise, full of magic and broness and, of course, betrayal. (Isn't that what we're here for, after all?) It's a little funny, and just a bit sad, and mostly true. A long, long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away there was this guy called Heron -- smart, handsome, charming, you know the type -- in a rioting faction warzone. But things were okay, because he had a great friend, a bro named Kasimar together with him in his faction. As the game progressed they talked and they bantered and they cracked jokes, and all seemed well.

Then a whole bunch of people killed Kasimar. But things were okay, because Kasimar was a Voidbringer, which meant he was a Seeker, and had mad PM skillz the day he was meant to die. And so he reached across the void to call Heron, and as the blood pooled around his body, gasped out everything he had found out about other people's factions and all of his suspicions. Heron swore eternal vengeance on Kasimar's killers and smote them all with the mighty power of the lynch, thus avenging Kasimar.

(Hahaha, no.)

As it turned out, all had not been well, for Heron had, in fact, been a traitor to Kasimar's faction. Heron had, in fact, happily taken all of the information Kasimar freely gave him, smiled a traitorous smile, and pushed his true faction to kill Kasimar. And Heron had, in fact, used that information to bring down Kasimar's faction for once and for all. On that day Heron saw the true power of PMs, and swore never, ever, ever, to trust again the same way that Kasimar had. For Heron, while not wise, did not wish to become a fool.

THE END.

What game was this?  It sounds like a great read.

4 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

interesting, So Axolotl according to your system what are your percentages?

0% of course.  I know I'm Village so I didn't add my stats into the system.

10 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Still don’t trust Axolotl’s system. The odds of everyone’s Elimness goes up if he dies, despite most of us advocating a lynch on him. Except Zebra and Toucan for some reason. 

And I suppose no Elim has ever voted on another Elim ever?  I fully expect at least one Elim to be involved in that lynch.  You, Dragonfly, are the leading candidate as placing the first vote on a thug type role is the thing I would expect an Elim to do.  Yes, you were ninjaed by me but that doesn't change the fact that you were planning on being the first one to vote on them.

As for why more players rise in suspiciousness if Weasel is Elim, I did say Weasel is my test case so there is bound to be some anomalies.  Although I do admit that I may have simplified the percentages to give you the results you requested.  It's a work in progress.

[Onyx Flamingo]

1 minute ago, Violet Axolotl said:

4 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

interesting, So Axolotl according to your system what are your percentages?

0% of course.  I know I'm Village so I didn't add my stats into the system.

But if you were to use your system to rate yourself doing whatever calculations what would it say?

[Violet Axolotl]

5 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

But if you were to use your system to rate yourself doing whatever calculations what would it say?

It would likely list me as 37% chance of being evil.  It would also go up if Weasel flips Elim to about 48-51%.

[Azure Mouse]

5 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

So don't forget to do it today it was one of Rhinos last requests 

True. :{D Though the cycle doesn't quite feel like the right situation for it. 

I guess I'll put down a vote on weasel - I do have a slight Elim read because of some of their votes, though I was hoping to have a bigger suspicion before commiting, though I guess that's not how these things work. Plus at this point we've wasted the cycle anyway, and doing anything else is either going to be irrelevant, or is going to waste more of our time...

 

[Amber Vulture]

59 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

It would likely list me as 37% chance of being evil.  It would also go up if Weasel flips Elim to about 48-51%.

I find the juxtaposition of “likely” and a precise percent figure interesting. That implies to me that there is an objective way to measure subjective reads, in the sense that a given “supporting post” or “lynch vote” is worth x or y, with the only ambiguity lying in whether a given post qualifies for such a category. I could, of course, be reading far too much into that word choice, but I see no other simple explanations as to how you’d arrive at a “likely” exact percent. I’m still hesitant to trust it, despite the fact that it put me at a rather low score, which is a point in its favor considering I know I’m good, so it’s accurate in at least one case

[Orlok Tsubodai]

AG4/AN1 - Night 6: Death of No-one

Someone is apparently dying today. I say apparently, because the claims of there being someone are currently being judged uncertain. Who’s judging? Sorry to say, but that’s also being judged uncertain by someone higher up than who should be judging. Bureaucracy can get confusing like that, which is why I am personally voting diplomatically for an un-diplomatic system. Taking the system down from the inside, you know?

Anyway, I’ve only been contracted for like not much, other services cost like way more proportionally, cause I don’t really like doing them. Not the writing itself, but the whole like characters being characters and stuff. What I can say about Weasel is that they ain’t gonna be weaseling their way out of this lynch, or just like life in general ironically. 

So Weasel dies, and I’m telling you this way too late. Like unbelievably late. Three paragraphs into the write-up and it’s only made clear then? For shame, myself. Anyway, at this point there may or may not be a paragraph of a word from the other GM:

---

Indigo Weasel was lynched. They were a Village Elsecaller. 

Vote Count
Indigo Weasel (8): Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Fuchsia Ostrich, Ivory Dragonfly, Pearl Chameleon, Quartz Zebra, Sage Kangaroo, Violet Axolotl

Night 6 has begun. It will end in 24 hours, at 10pm GMT on the 31st January.

Player List
1. Amethyst Scorpion
2. Azure Mouse
3. Amber Vulture
4. Charcoal Hyena - Cannoc - Villager
5. Chartreuse Penguin - Villager
6. Coral Swan - Elyle - Village Lightweaver
7. Cream Tuatara - Villager
8. Emerald Falcon - Aldrick
9. Fuschia Ostrich
10. Indigo Weasel - Village Elsecaller
11. Ivory Dragonfly - Nolan
12. Magenta Albatross
13. Mauve Crocodile
14. Melon Dingo - Quentisan - Village Edgedancer
15. Mint Heron
16. Onyx Flamingo - Squawk
17. Opal Lion - Villager
18. Oxblood Beagle - Jai - Village Willshaper
19. Pearl Chameleon
20. Plum Rhinoceros - Villager
21. Quartz Zebra
22. Saffron Iguana - Emalia - Village Lightweaver
23. Sage Kangaroo
24. Salmon Meerkat - Village Bondsmith
25. Sapphire Elephant
26. Scarlet Octopus - Village Edgedancer 
27. Sunburst Toucan - Vanna
28. Taupe Gecko - Villager
29. Turquoise Gorilla - Village Dustbringer
30. Violet Axolotl

[Onyx Flamingo]

I swear if if this game is so troll that there is literally no elims or something like that I will be furious.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Eh, disappointing but not surprising.

@Onyx Flamingo, there was that game not long ago where there was only one Elim, but I think they had three lives essentially, plus a ton of powers.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Okay, this is completely absurd. We’ve wasted two lynches on a villager, by the consensus of literally everyone, and a lot of it done at my urging. I should just stop taking as if I know what I’m doing.

If I die: my suspicions are 

Violet Axolotl: This voting system is likely defunct, as we just lynched someone with a 87% chance of being an Elim. In addition, their posts feel weird and generally off to me. For instance, they accused me of leading a lynch on an Elsecaller on the premise that I somehow knew they were an Elsecaller, while bringing up no evidence to support their claim, and completely ignoring that the same argument could be applied to them. 

Azure Mouse: Okay, they’ve posted lots of reads, which seems helpful and villager-y, but the reads aren’t that in-depth, and were I an elim a great strategy to use would be something like this, where I post enough of a mixture of truth and lies that the village just kind of overlooks me. 

Emerald Falcon/Fuschia Ostrich/Muave Crocodile/Sapphire Elephant: Too few posts for me to get any significant read, but the tone on some (particularly Falcon and Crocodile) feels off. I still think there are Elims in the semiactives. These four are the only semiactives left. (Elephant and Ostrich have been better lately, but I’d still like to see more from them). 

I’d also keep an eye on Onyx Flamingo and Sage Kangaroo. I mostly trust them as villagers, but a lot of that comes from PMs and as people have said PMs can be shaky. They’ve struck me as village generally, and have shown signs of trust, but if everyone around them starts dropping we might want to put them under the microscope.

Other people:

Vulture: Leaning village based on structure, tone, and helpful content of their posts. Again, willing to keep an eye on her.

Scorpion: Kinda annoys me slightly, and I still don’t like their vote on me, but I think they’re a villager just from the way they’re willing to stick out their neck and put out a different lynch candidate. That said, if Scorpion flips Elim take a good hard look at Pearl Chameleon, who defended him when he was about to be lynched.

Albatross: Neutral leaning village. I’ve explained my thoughts on Albatross D5 (I think), but I get a general village feel from their posts. 

Heron: Complete neutral read. They’ve posted a lot, but have done so in a way that makes it tough for me to actually get hints about their alignment. I’ll look through their stuff once I finish this post. 

Chameleon: Slight village read. The tone of their posts is village, at least, though I’ll have to look back through their posts again to confirm this initial read. 

Toucan: See Albatross, I have basically the same thoughts on them, though I do think Toucan is the likelier of the two to be Elim. 

Zebra: Actually one of my stronger Elim reads. Now, I understand this is mildly controversial, but Zebra seems like one of those people that’s really great at adopting a village tone with their posts, but is actually an Elim. I have no evidence whatsoever to back this up, so please take this post with a grain of salt. However, one only need see LG41 *cough*Seonid*cough* to find an example of an Elim that was really great at conveying a village tone. I suppose you could also lump Kangaroo into this category, but for some reason I suspect him less. Might be a bad thing in the end, but *shrug*. I’m definitely looking back through Zebra’s stuff to see if I can find any specific examples, though. For now, just ignore this, but I would like 2 other villagers, at least, to aid me in examining Zebra’s posts to insure that I’m not engaging in confirmation bias.

I support lynching Scorpion tomorrow for info, but I’d love to hear what the rest of the village thinks, since my judgement has clearly not been the best recently.

[Violet Axolotl]

1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Indigo Weasel was lynched. They were a Village Elsecaller.

How? What? Huh?

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I find the juxtaposition of “likely” and a precise percent figure interesting. That implies to me that there is an objective way to measure subjective reads, in the sense that a given “supporting post” or “lynch vote” is worth x or y, with the only ambiguity lying in whether a given post qualifies for such a category. I could, of course, be reading far too much into that word choice, but I see no other simple explanations as to how you’d arrive at a “likely” exact percent. I’m still hesitant to trust it, despite the fact that it put me at a rather low score, which is a point in its favor considering I know I’m good, so it’s accurate in at least one case

I used 'likely' for the simple fact that I didn't add myself to the system.  I estimated where it would place me given what I knew of how it worked.  And of course there is an objective way to measure the reads.  That is part of any process for any system.  You put in what you think is relevant or useful rather than everything as that would clog the system with useless information.

51 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Violet Axolotl: This voting system is likely defunct, as we just lynched someone with a 87% chance of being an Elim. In addition, their posts feel weird and generally off to me. For instance, they accused me of leading a lynch on an Elsecaller on the premise that I somehow knew they were an Elsecaller, while bringing up no evidence to support their claim, and completely ignoring that the same argument could be applied to them.

Yes, my voting system was way off. I readily admit that.  But I did not accuse you of "leading a lynch on an Elsecaller on the premise that I somehow knew they were an Elsecaller, while bringing up no evidence to support their claim."  What I did was say that if Weasel was an Elim Elsecaller that I would suspect you more than I currently do given that it's a fairly common tactic to lynch a Elim Thug near the end game to give the Elims two free night cycles to wipe out the Village.  And I did not "completely ignoring that the same argument could be applied to them." as I said later on when asked where I would be in my system that I would also go up in suspicion if Weasel was an Elim.  The reason I would go up would've been for the exact same reason you would've gone up.  Just because I don't straight out say something, does not mean I am ignoring it.  I'm simply glossing over it.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Okay, I figure I owe @Violet Axolotl a bit of an apology after somehow missing their post saying that their odds of Elimness went up under their system as well. (Yeah I structured that sentence terribly so I hope someone made sense out of it.) With this peice of information in mind, I suspect Axolotl somewhat less, though I would like them to explain why they think we are near the endgame. Are we really? I mean, we’ll be close to even with the elims after 2 turns of their night kills and 2 mislynches, so I guess that would end the game? We’d better kill an Elim tomorrow if that’s the case. Therefore, just putting up my standard urging of ALL villagers to be active. Your vote is key! Don’t hand the lynch to the Elims two cycles early.

Did a thorough reread of Zebra’s posts and the only really incriminating thing I can find is the amount of time he spent on the PM group. Again, might be confirmation bias, but this could be an Elim trying to derail discussion for a day and get a villager (Beagle) lynched. They admit this tunneling right before Beagle dies, too, so it almost seems like a hand-washing (though, to be fair, it would have been hard to guess that Gorilla was going to use his kill action on Beagle). I think I’m getting a little too far into IKYK with Zebra, so I think I’ll just back off my immediate suspicions and resolve to keep an eye on him. Not cleared, but the initial strong village read looks, well, strong.

Nothing else at the moment so I’ll probably turn in for the night and make another post in the morning before the cycle closes.

[Mint Heron]

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On the reread, I'm finding Heron's posts to be quite suspicious, but I can't quite put into words how, except as a gut read. I'm hoping to post a more thorough analysis of them in particular, but I'm not sure I'll be able to. (Sorry Heron - I hate it when people call me an Elim for 'gut reads' I can't defend against - I'll try and work out what it is that's bugging me for you to be able to respond to properly.)

(Also, I know exactly which player Heron is now. Interesting.)

http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/64489-anniversary-game-4anonymous-game-1-a-fresh-start/?do=findComment&comment=670445

TBH, I'm playing this game in complete chill mode right now, so a lot of my posts are RP and general advice instead of actual analysis.  I don't blame you for your read, since I haven't been doing a whole lot.

3 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

With this peice of information in mind, I suspect Axolotl somewhat less, though I would like them to explain why they think we are near the endgame. Are we really? I mean, we’ll be close to even with the elims after 2 turns of their night kills and 2 mislynches, so I guess that would end the game? We’d better kill an Elim tomorrow if that’s the case. Therefore, just putting up my standard urging of ALL villagers to be active. Your vote is key! Don’t hand the lynch to the Elims two cycles early.

We have sixteen players, and five or six Sympathisers. Assuming worst-case scenario, that puts our village-to-Sympathiser ratio at 11:6. The Sympathisers win when they outnumber the village. If one villager dies every night and a mislynch happens every cycle, the game should play out like this:

Day Seven: 10 villagers and 6 Sympathisers
Night Seven: 9 villagers and 6 Sympathisers
Day Eight: 8 villagers and 6 Sympathisers -- at this point the Sympathisers practically have control over the lynch, barring a last-minute village rally
Night Eight: 7 villagers and 6 Sympathisers
Day Nine: 6 villagers and 6 Sympathisers -- parity, any possible Sympathiser lynch will end in a tie with whoever the Sympathisers dogpile onto and no-one will die
Night Nine: 5 villagers and 6 Sympathisers -- villagers lose the game

If there are five Sympathisers we lose the game at Day Ten. In other words, we're not near endgame, we're in endgame.

After looking at the votes of the players the Sympathisers killed, there doesn't seem to be a common pattern, except that both Rhinoceros and Gecko voted on Flamingo. I don't think it's a smoking gun, as I have a village read from Squawk (Flamingo). She's made actions consistent with a newcomer that doesn't have the support of a team that feel very natural for a new player. (For the same reason, I have a slight village lean on Nolan (Dragonfly), but to a lesser degree, as Nolan's errors don't come across as automatically genuine and could be faked more easily.)

Edit: Scenario was wrong due to an arithmetic error, please see below for updated scenario.

Day Seven: 9 villagers and 6 Sympathisers
Night Seven: 8 villagers and 6 Sympathisers -- at this point the Sympathisers practically have control over the lynch, barring a last-minute village rally
Day Eight: 7 villagers and 6 Sympathisers
Night Eight: 6 villagers and 6 Sympathisers -- parity, game over because the Sympathisers will get a kill or a lynch through at some point even if there's protection

Edited January 31, 2018 by Mint Heron

[Violet Axolotl]

1 hour ago, Mint Heron said:

We have sixteen players, and five or six Sympathisers. Assuming worst-case scenario, that puts our village-to-Sympathiser ratio at 11:6. The Sympathisers win when they outnumber the village. If one villager dies every night and a mislynch happens every cycle, the game should play out like this:

Day Seven: 10 villagers and 6 Sympathisers
Night Seven: 9 villagers and 6 Sympathisers
Day Eight: 8 villagers and 6 Sympathisers -- at this point the Sympathisers practically have control over the lynch, barring a last-minute village rally
Night Eight: 7 villagers and 6 Sympathisers
Day Nine: 6 villagers and 6 Sympathisers -- parity, any possible Sympathiser lynch will end in a tie with whoever the Sympathisers dogpile onto and no-one will die
Night Nine: 5 villagers and 6 Sympathisers -- villagers lose the game

I think you mean 10:6 not 11:6.  Which does alter your scenario a bit.

Assuming the Elims kill this night, which is all but guaranteed given our wonderful track record of protection, then Day 7 starts with 9:6.  With the current lack of voting, they could control the lynch with little effort. 8:6.  Another dies N7, 7:6.  Game is all but over.

We either NEED to lynch an Elim tomorrow or hope there is only 5 of them.  And if they have a Worldhopper that pulls Duskbringer either this night or the next, we are finished.  And yes, I can see them having a Worldhopper with 6 members.  I seem to recall a game where most of the power roles were all Village including all the protection so if something similar happened then them having a Worldhopper would be standard.

[Onyx Flamingo]

If I die here are my thoughts though i am at a bit of a loss to be honest.

I am suspicious of Axo a little because of the voting system and it feels like just made up numbers to me without understanding the logic to them. But... and this isn't really fair to current Axo, I am suspicious because of what Axo 1.0 did.

he threw around a couple of votes willy nilly and then made this post

So on the one hand he wanted to keep the votes tied but on the other he spoke out against the gecko lynch... with that and the infamous post I am suspicious of axo but it's hard to put into words.

Trying something new I am going to go back into the thread and try to determine who is most likely not both elims

Scorpion =\= crocodile

since scorpion brought crocodile out and there was  a bit of attention brought on both of them this doesn't feel like it is staged to me so I dont think they both can be elims

Toucan =/= Albatross

this one with an accusal a defense then a counter accusal definately make me believe that toucan and albatross are not both elims.

Zebra=/= Ostritch

Zebra goes hard for ostritch this day! definately not both elims.

I will try to post more commentary before end of cycle but I have to go to bed now.

[Mint Heron]

32 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

I think you mean 10:6 not 11:6.  Which does alter your scenario a bit.

Assuming the Elims kill this night, which is all but guaranteed given our wonderful track record of protection, then Day 7 starts with 9:6.  With the current lack of voting, they could control the lynch with little effort. 8:6.  Another dies N7, 7:6.  Game is all but over.

We either NEED to lynch an Elim tomorrow or hope there is only 5 of them.  And if they have a Worldhopper that pulls Duskbringer either this night or the next, we are finished.  And yes, I can see them having a Worldhopper with 6 members.  I seem to recall a game where most of the power roles were all Village including all the protection so if something similar happened then them having a Worldhopper would be standard.

...soddit, I'm just going to pretend that never happened >>