Question (possible error) regarding timeline

[Coconutzz]

Hi everyone first time posting here,

I just finished reading WOK and WOR (my first Sanderson books) both of which I absolutely loved. When I found out that book 3 was still months away I went on a Coppermind spree and was just amazed by the scope of the Cosmere. I really need to start reading the rest of Sanderson's novels.

Anyways, I stumbled upon the Shattering's page where it read "Brandon has stated that he currently imagines it[the shattering] to be about 6,000 years before the Stormlight Archive Prelude, or 11,000 years before The Way of Kings"

To my understanding Odium went about killing other shards after the shattering. I assume this took some time so it is unlikely that he started the Desolations immediately after the shattering. However, let's say that Odium did in fact begin desolating Roshar right after the shattering.

6000 (years before the prelude) divided by 99 (desolations) gives us = Roughly 60 years between desolations. This brings me to my 2 questions.

1) Why is it that the most recent period between desolations has lasted 4500 years? Previous periods were definitely shorter and there were 10 heralds as compared to only 1 now.

2) Many times in the books it is referenced that much knowledge is lost between desolations. How is that possible? A teen aged 20 during a desolation would be 80 by the time his/her second desolation came. He/she would pass along firsthand knowledge of the desolation to his children and grandchildren. Assuming his descendants survived their first desolation they would realise "rust, gramps wasn't lying, we should probably prepare for another desolation" In this way surely knowledge like being able to cast bronze would be retained through communities, let alone kingdoms. 

Apologies if this topic has been done before or if I am using outdated info.

Thanks!

 

 

 

[Calderis he/him]

We don't know how long was between desolation but it's been brought up that the number of desolations total is only 99 according to the Vorin Church. The Radiants existed not only to fight but to try and rebuild after each desolation, and we know there was enough time for the world to somewhat repopulate and advance slightly before the desolation would hit and the cycle would start again. 

As for why this particular desolation has held off, the best answer I can give you is from the back of tWoK. 

"The world became ours, and we lost it. Nothing, it appears, is more challenging to the souls of men than victory itself. 

Or was that victory an illusion all along? Did our enemies realize that the harder they fought, the stronger we resisted? Perhaps they saw that the heat and the hammer only make for a better grade of sword. But ignore the steel long enough, and it will eventually rust away."

So the length of this lull is intentional. Between the Heralds abandonment of their duties, and the fact that desolations have faded to myth...

It's Odium's plan. 

Edited May 22, 2017 by Calderis

[Pagerunner he/him]

A good catch. There were fewer than 99 Desolations.

We're not sure exactly what causes a Desolation to begin. Nale thinks he has delayed it by killing Surgebinders. Some of us think it happens when a Herald breaks under torture, and that since the only Herald there was the unbelievably stubborn one, he kept from breaking for much longer than any of the others would have.

These are the right kinds of questions to be asking. Especially in Stormlight, there is much mythology that is based on facts, but has been distorted. Look at the names of various gods in Lift's viewpoints, too, and try to connect them to Heralds. Brandon has built things much better than the characters in the story know about!

Welcome to the Shard! If anything else strikes you odd, feel free to ask around; someone else has probably wondered the same thing.

[The One Who Connects he/him]

1 hour ago, Coconutzz said:

Anyways, I stumbled upon the Shattering's page where it read "Brandon has stated that he currently imagines it[the shattering] to be about 6,000 years before the Stormlight Archive Prelude, or 11,000 years before The Way of Kings"

To my understanding Odium went about killing other shards after the shattering. I assume this took some time so it is unlikely that he started the Desolations immediately after the shattering.

I actually did this before in Gizmosowner's thread here  (In a spoiler tag because it's a large post and was easier to quote rather than summarize)

Spoiler

Quote

We know a rough timeline of some events.

He went after Ambition first, but couldn't find (him?)
He then took out Devotion and Dominion on Sel (they were the first, so this is the best point to try mapping out timelines)
After D&D, he took out Ambition at some unspecified time.
Odium visits Roshar, gets trapped there for a long while and does Desolations
Around 2 Millennia(by my best estimates) pass, and Honor is killed around the same time as the Recreance occurs.
Remaining 2200-2500 years to the present date in Stormlight Archives.

The problem with reverse engineering it is that we only have a statement by Brandon that is subject to change about how long ago the Shattering was.

---

6,000 years before Prelude in Stormlight. [2]
Debate about how long the Desolations took ensues... I'm siding with the "there were only 9 Desolations" camp and using the Heraldic Epochs for this.
Dalinar's vision with Midnight Essence gives us a lot of things. Midnight Essence are a sign of an impending Desolation. The date is the Eighth Epoch, 337.
   -If I combine those 2 things with the assumption that after each Desolation is a new Epoch, I can assume (for theoretical convenience) that each Epoch lasted around 350 years.
   -350 years x 9 Desolations (so that Aharietiam was #10 for you Vorin people) is 3,150 years, give or take a few decades.
      -This would give Odium about 2,800 years for Ambition and D&D

Mistborn Era 1 takes place around 300 years before Stormlight(because Alloy happens around that time)
Elantris takes place "far earlier. It's quite... It's not thousands" compared to Hero of Ages. I'll use 1,400 years because it'll be convenient in a minute.
That puts Elantris a few centuries before Rashek's Ascension. The physical city of Elantris was built "hundreds of years if not over a thousand years" before the book takes place. If we put that at another 1,400 year gap, that puts the total time-gap at 3,100 years before Stormlight Archive. (Around the same time Odium got trapped, see? Convenient)

 

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1 hour ago, Coconutzz said:

2) Many times in the books it is referenced that much knowledge is lost between desolations. How is that possible? A teen aged 20 during a desolation would be 80 by the time his/her second desolation came. He/she would pass along firsthand knowledge of the desolation to his children and grandchildren. Assuming his descendants survived their first desolation they would realize "rust, gramps wasn't lying, we should probably prepare for another desolation" In this way surely knowledge like being able to cast bronze would be retained through communities, let alone kingdoms. 

To quote Vikorr in a prior post here: (As they put it far better than I could have)

Quote

I think people take for granted that cities would always function as cities...but cities die off if:

- the farms that support them die

- they lose water

- their sewerage system breaks (this one is not terminal, but it can mean a moderate to severe loss of population, which then leads to skills loss, which then leads to other problems)

A city is a place where people can specialise, instead of:

- growing / hunting their own food

- building their own house

- making their own clothes 

- making their own tools etc

Many tools require tools to make tools. Sometimes you need a tool, to make a tool, to make a tool (On earth, a computer may require this path hundreds of times). And each time takes specialized knowledge. The loss of that knowledge leads to the loss of the tools, leads to the loss of ability to make many things. If you stopped and asked yourself, what tools do I need to build #### (and you arrived at A, B, C & D), then asked yourself what do I need to make A, B, & C (and you arrived at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8), then asked yourself 'what do I need to make 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8...then asked yourself... (you get the pattern) - I think you'd be surprised how many tools can be involved in making tools to build one single thing . Then move on to the next building project, and repeat. It's an enormous amount of tools. And that's not even mentioning what is needed for the mining, to make metals that make the tools.

When people no longer have access to necessary tools. When they have to grow food just to survive, or fight for it. When they have to fight for or build shelter. When their clothes are falling off their back...what time do they have left to teach much of anything, let alone reading & writing?

Edit: forgot my point of quoting this: The "lost knowledge" doesn't have to do with forgetting what happened in a Desolation. They are a major part of their religion teachings, so it isn't forgotten. The lost information is what keeps reverting society back to the stone age each time: the people who know the important/high tech stuff end up dying, and nobody has spare time to relearn in a post apocalyptic setting for a while and by that point it's too late

Edited May 23, 2017 by The One Who Connects

[Andy92]

2 hours ago, Pagerunner said:

A good catch. There were fewer than 99 Desolations.

I got 99 problems but a Desolation ain't one? 

[CaptainRyan he/him]

On 5/22/2017 at 6:55 PM, Andy92 said:

I got 99 problems but a Desolation is at least one, probably more but definitely less than all*

*fixed  

[Andy92]

@CaptainRyan Well that is just not as catchy.