Spinner vs. Seer

[Swimmingly]

My question is, can luck beat foresight? Luck implies manipulation of randomness, so would a seer be able to tell what a tapping Spinner was about to do?

[bartbug]

Ha ha ha. I would love to say that luck would help the Spinner win, but logically, atium trumps. So let's say that we're gambling, or trying to guess what we're going to roll. Now, luck would not be 100% accurate, so lets say that the Spinner gets 8 out of his 10 guesses right. Then the Seer sees the future and goes 10 for 10. I'm pretty sure luck would not work.

[Oudeis]

We know so little about how Spinning even works, that pretty much any speculation on either side falls into the "well you can't prove it's not true" territory.

[Swimmingly]

We know so little about how Spinning even works, that pretty much any speculation on either side falls into the "well you can't prove it's not true" territory.

Fair enough. I really want to see some Feruchemists using those Spiritual metals.

[thecatinthehat]

Ha ha ha. I would love to say that luck would help the Spinner win, but logically, atium trumps. So let's say that we're gambling, or trying to guess what we're going to roll. Now, luck would not be 100% accurate, so lets say that the Spinner gets 8 out of his 10 guesses right. Then the Seer sees the future and goes 10 for 10. I'm pretty sure luck would not work.

But wouldn't be a Spinner able to trump a Seer, as well?

I mean, the atium burner is able to predict what the Spinner is about to do and decide on the counteraction, but it doesn't mean that he can't fail to counteract. And the Spinner should be able to make the Seer fail with, say, 99% probability, right?

[EHyde]

But wouldn't be a Spinner able to trump a Seer, as well?

I mean, the atium burner is able to predict what the Spinner is about to do and decide on the counteraction, but it doesn't mean that he can't fail to counteract. And the Spinner should be able to make the Seer fail with, say, 99% probability, right?

 

It may well depend on the situation. You're describing a situation in which they're working directly against each other and bartbug was talking about each of them working against some system--I think in this case, luck becomes more relevant/useful the fewer outside forces are involved.

[Edgedancer]

Luck certainly wouldn`t help in a straight fight. Just hitting someone with Atium seems pretty much impossible. No matter how lucky you are, you are still only going to punch at one spot the Seer used to be.

 

What Luck could help you with is setting up a situation the Seer can´t evade but, unless tapping enough luck can cause random earthquakes, that would still take at the very least some preparations.

[digitalbusker]

Luck certainly wouldn`t help in a straight fight. Just hitting someone with Atium seems pretty much impossible. No matter how lucky you are, you are still only going to punch at one spot the Seer used to be.

Unless they trip on a banana peel, or their shoelaces have come untied, or they dodge onto a rotten plank and fall down to the crocodiles.* Atium helps you figure out what you need to do (e.g. get out of the way of this blow), and it probably even helps you pick the best way to do it, but it doesn't help you actually accomplish it. Of course skill (and pewter, in the case of a Mistborn) help there, and a very skilled fighter is less vulnerable to bad luck than an amateur, but depending on how the tapped luck manifests, it could mess up even a Seer.

 

*: I'm assuming the standard rickety rope bridge over crocodile-infested rapids setting for this fight, obviously.

[Pechvarry]

I have a feeling luck will not play out in a Cauthon-esque manner, but let's say it does for the moment. A seer sees the light fixture about to fall on their face, but not themself (that's a word?). So how can they foresee that this is the time they will trip on their own feet? If you swing your glass dagger, can you also see that it shatters?

I've mentioned before that luck in the cosmere may be something of a "fate priority". Maybe tapping/storing luck is dynamically changing your future. In which case, just storing a bit of luck may be enough to create a cloud of possibilities for the seer, with the downside that you're a bit unlucky during the fight.

[Swimmingly]

It occurs to me that a Spinner could deal with a Seer by standing perfectly still and letting the Seer keep swinging and missing due to random arm cramps, blows glancing off hidden metalminds, confused pidgeons bouncing off his cranium, et cetera. The Seer would have no advantage over a stationary object, because it would have no shadows.

[Oudeis]

Unless they trip on a banana peel, or their shoelaces have come untied, or they dodge onto a rotten plank and fall down to the crocodiles.* Atium helps you figure out what you need to do (e.g. get out of the way of this blow), and it probably even helps you pick the best way to do it, but it doesn't help you actually accomplish it.

 

 

It occurs to me that a Spinner could deal with a Seer by standing perfectly still and letting the Seer keep swinging and missing due to random arm cramps, blows glancing off hidden metalminds, confused pidgeons bouncing off his cranium, et cetera. The Seer would have no advantage over a stationary object, because it would have no shadows.

 

 

Except that atium lets you see what's going to happen to everything, not just your opponent. If a plank is rotten and about to break, atium would direct your foot to the next one. It would direct your blows past metalminds and make you duck under the pigeon.

 

And again, we have no idea how feruchemical luck works.

 

 

I have a feeling luck will not play out in a Cauthon-esque manner, but let's say it does for the moment. A seer sees the light fixture about to fall on their face, but not themself (that's a word?). So how can they foresee that this is the time they will trip on their own feet? If you swing your glass dagger, can you also see that it shatters?

I've mentioned before that luck in the cosmere may be something of a "fate priority". Maybe tapping/storing luck is dynamically changing your future. In which case, just storing a bit of luck may be enough to create a cloud of possibilities for the seer, with the downside that you're a bit unlucky during the fight.

 

Interesting... your very valid point is that your own clothing and weapons don't give off atium shadows.

 

Spoilers for Words of Radiance.

 

There's a topic in the Words of Radiance thread that deals with similar matter; your insight on atium not letting you see your own clothes being carried forward by your own future actions might be interesting material to add to the discussion.

[Swimmingly]

If an atium shadow isn't specifically in your field of vision, can you react to it? For example, if someone swings a half-brick in a sock at the back of your head while you're staring in the other direction, does atium let you dodge even though the atium shadow never enters your eyesight?

[PorridgeBrick]

Since a blind person can still use atium, I think atium is only somewhat related to actual vision. So even if you can't see it normally, you may still be able to see it with atium.

[Swimmingly]

Since a blind person can still use atium, I think atium is only somewhat related to actual vision. So even if you can't see it normally, you may still be able to see it with atium.

Who's the blind Seer?

[PorridgeBrick]

Sorry, here's the WoB:

http://www.theoryland.com/intvmain.php?i=979#50

HEROWANNABE

I recently picked up the Mistborn Adventure game and am loving it. I made a character who is a blind Mistborn because hey, I thought it would make for some interesting possibilities. As I understand Allomancy, he can hear/sense well enough to get around with Tin, plus even though he's blind he can still "see" Steel lines (like the inquisitors), and I assume Atium would work the same way—that is, he could still "see" Atium shadows. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

BRANDON SANDERSON

No, you're right. That works. He'd have to burn metals a LOT though. It might warp him a little.

HEROWANNABE

The metal that's stumping me is Gold—what happens when a blind person burns Gold—especially if he "sees" a version of himself that isn't blind? Can he see the other version or just hear/feel/sense him? What about the other version, can it see things? Could a blind person use gold in this way to see the world around him?

BRANDON SANDERSON

A blind person would indeed sense these things, but not have the vision with the eyes. In the same way that a blind person still dreams, but doesn't "See" in them. (As I understand it.) I'd suggest talking to someone who is blind and getting their take on how this would work.

Edited January 18, 2014 by PorridgeBrick

[Swimmingly]

Sorry, here's the WoB:

http://www.theoryland.com/intvmain.php?i=979#50

HEROWANNABE

I recently picked up the Mistborn Adventure game and am loving it. I made a character who is a blind Mistborn because hey, I thought it would make for some interesting possibilities. As I understand Allomancy, he can hear/sense well enough to get around with Tin, plus even though he's blind he can still "see" Steel lines (like the inquisitors), and I assume Atium would work the same way—that is, he could still "see" Atium shadows. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

BRANDON SANDERSON

No, you're right. That works. He'd have to burn metals a LOT though. It might warp him a little.

HEROWANNABE

The metal that's stumping me is Gold—what happens when a blind person burns Gold—especially if he "sees" a version of himself that isn't blind? Can he see the other version or just hear/feel/sense him? What about the other version, can it see things? Could a blind person use gold in this way to see the world around him?

BRANDON SANDERSON

A blind person would indeed sense these things, but not have the vision with the eyes. In the same way that a blind person still dreams, but doesn't "See" in them. (As I understand it.) I'd suggest talking to someone who is blind and getting their take on how this would work.

Oh, ok, I thought you were referring to an actual character from the books - a minor character from the Seer army or something. I mean, given that it works, I wish Brandon had put a literal "blind Seer" into the books.

[Pechvarry]

@Darnam: I'm trying to stay out of WoR threads. Feel free to take the observation to that thread though.

[bartbug]

Also, I think something you need to consider is how Luck is feruchemical, which makes the use of it more valuable (because you would have to store it up). Maybe Compounded luck could beat Seer, but even so. It all comes down to how temporal luck is, and whether it affects more than the present (which it shouldn't, or else it would be god metal based. Unless it does, because it has to do with a temporal metal. Or, the "temporal" metals really just affect speed). 

[Oudeis]

@Darnam: I'm trying to stay out of WoR threads. Feel free to take the observation to that thread though.

 

I understand, and I hope I didn't spoil anything. Tomorrow, I'll throw you observation into the thread, and give you credit.

 

The thread draws a few specifics from the most recent releases, but without spoiling anything from a non-released book, it asks, are your clothes/equipment considered "a part of you", in this specific case, influenced by the fact that the atium burner does not seem to see his/her own clothing or weapons as atium shadows.

[18th Shard]

The Seer swings at the spot the Spinner is about to be, but trips on their mistcloak falling on their own glass dagger. Enough luck, and seeing the future seems lame.

[Oudeis]

The Seer swings at the spot the Spinner is about to be, but trips on their mistcloak falling on their own glass dagger. Enough luck, and seeing the future seems lame.

 

...except that wouldn't they know where the mistcloak was gonna be, and not step on it, and not trip? How do you "bad luck" someone who can see and react to the entire future?

 

Also, we don't really know how tapping Luck works. Maybe it can't affect other people like that, maybe it can only make your personal actions work out in your favor; i.e., it's your specific good luck, not your good luck via the bad luck of others.

[Moogle]

Luck doesn't exist! And if it does, it shouldn't exist if you can see the future, since luck is based on your uncertain knowledge of future events. I'm honestly not even sure how storing/tapping luck would work. This entire debate seems to be hinged on that question and nobody really knows the answer.

 

Edit: Ooh, from a many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, you could say that tapping luck ensures you'll always find yourself in a universe more to your preferences (and screw the versions of you who didn't tap luck!), but this has so many major issues that I am giving up on this until we get more Mistborn books.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Moogle

[DoctorWh0m]

Depends how much the Spinner is tapping and for what period of time, IMO. If these two just meet and start fighting and using their Investiture, then it depends on the former, as if they were lucky enough an outside element would probably win the fight for them. if they only had enough luck for small things, the Seer would win. But, one would imagine that if one was a Spinner, then one would have their zinc on pretty much all the time on a low-level tap, meaning they'd probably either avoid the fight entirely, or inadvertently create a situation where the Seer is at a disadvantage. Obviously, this is limited by our practically non-existent knowledge of Spinning; if it simply manipulates present events to the Feruchemist's advantage, then there aren't really many things it could affect in a fight against a Seer (no elements of chance).  But if Spinning works by making things always go right, possibly retroactively, then it could turn out that the Seer's atium was actually a thin layer around a ball of lead.

Edited February 7, 2014 by DoctorWh0m