Influence and Endgame

[Kaymyth]

OK, so there's been a lot of debate going back and forth about who's really influencing Scadrial. I've read through them all and have organized my own thoughts on the matter, putting together a cohesive timeline of events that places Autonomy firmly into the picture as Trell.  

 

Known:  Bleeder's spikes were made of an unknown godmetal.  

 

I personally find it highly unlikely that a sliver of Ruin could possibly create a godmetal unknown to Harmony.  This would mean that evidence suggests that another Shard is getting involved with Scadrial.

 

Known:  Odium is terrified of Harmony.

 

Supposition from extant evidence:  Autonomy is, if not aligned with Odium, at least not at odds with him, and possibly in contact with him.  He believes that Odium is safely contained and not a threat to the Cosmere.  

 

Theory:  Odium has convinced Autonomy to drink the 'Harmony is a threat' kool-aid.  This is plausible, as Harmony is the first dual Shardholder (that we know of, at least) since the Shattering.  This could lead Autonomy to believe that Harmony is a threat to the balance in the Cosmere itself, so he sent agents to the planet to start sussing out the situation.  What he learns is that Harmony is actively meddling in his world's development directly, which would be anathema to Autonomy's Intent.

 

(And yes, Harmony does advocate that the people should make their own choices, but he also has been taking as active a role as he can with warring Intents to influence things.  In Autonomy's book, this would be a big heaping pile of hypocritical horse doo-doo.)

 

So.  Autonomy puts his agents into position, studying the lay of the land and gathering intelligence on Harmony and his followers.  We have a WoB that states that other Shards can communicate through spikes, even if they aren't all as clear as Ruin.  Autonomy spikes his agents in order to directly influence them (though some of them may not realize they're being influenced).

 

Bloody Tan is one of those agents.  Autonomy was specifically using him to study Hemalurgy.  Tan had basically outright admitted that the entire show was specifically for Wax's benefit; Autonomy had learned that Wax was one of Harmony's prime agents and that there were plans in place for him, and so derailing those plans are part of his overarching scheme to undermine Harmony's influence.

 

Bloody Tan spikes Lessie/Paalm, opening her up to Autonomy's influence, and then "killing" her in order to break Wax.

(We know that Harmony wanted Wax back in Elendel, but there's no hard evidence that he orchestrated Lessie's death.  SoS specifically states that he was pushing Paalm to do something that she didn't want to do, but not that she ever actually did it.  I think he saw her "death" coming and knew that one way or another, he was getting Wax to Elendel.  He didn't tell her what was going to happen, though, hoping that she would ultimately make a better choice.  He was so, so wrong.)

 

Paalm now has Autonomy whispering in her ear; how long it takes her to realize what's going on is up for debate, but there is some evidence in SoS that she is in active communication with her godmetal Shard.  It's possible that being kandra, she's better able to "listen" through the spike than humans would be.  But with a Shard's Intent influencing her, she is convinced to pull her Blessing spikes and go rogue (and completely bugnuts).  Autonomy sets her into motion causing mayhem with Wax as the ultimate target.

 

Ultimately, Autonomy wins this round, sacrificing Paalm for the reward of pushing Wax close to breakdown and rejecting Harmony.

 

His endgame, then, would be to completely disassemble Harmony's network and break his influence on Scadrial.  There may even be an ultimate goal of taking Harmony out and re-breaking his Shard into Preservation and Ruin.

 

 

*edited because the bleeping text editor killed all my paragraph breaks

Edited November 18, 2015 by Kaymyth

[Edgedancer]

I'd just like to point out that if Autonomy wants to get Wax to act as its agent or something like that he moved him into perfect position to become a Steel Compunder invisible to Harmony. Plus, who knows what the Bands of Mourning will actually bring into play.

 

Apart from that, I'd also put my money on Autonomy, even though the intend of autonomy is harder to pin down than a simple verb such as preservation. Although, I wonder how much Trell is involved with the Set, given that both Bleeder and Miles used them for funding their operations.

[KidWayne]

I like everything about this. The only comment I have is on the finer points of Autonomy's motives.

Opinion/Observation: It seems to me that Autonomy perceives Sazed as a threat because - for the first time in ages - the once separate shards have been combined. Since these shards are no longer separate and autonomous, Bavadin is both threatened by and outraged at the anathema of the shards' consolidation.

Speculation: That outrage could provide the common ground for a Autonomy + Odium team-up.

I like it, but I'm not sure about...

"We know that Harmony wanted Wax back in Elendel, but there's no hard evidence that he orchestrated Lessie's death. SoS specifically states that he was pushing Paalm to do something that she didn't want to do, but not that she ever actually did it." (from OP)

I want to believe that Sazed is a good guy, so I like this. However, it seems like a stretch to say that Sazed didn't have an active hand in Lessie's death.

 

"A letter was peeking out of his pocket, delivered earlier that day. It was from the grand city of Elendel, and was addressed to Lord Waxillium Ladrian... He tucked the letter farther into his pocket. Lessie thought it implied more than it did. The city didn't hold anything for him now, and House Ladrian would get along without him. He really should have burned that letter."

- Alloy of Law, Prologue (p. 5 - 6)

The AoL prologue makes it pretty clear that Lessie was dropping hints to Wax about the letter. I'm inclined to interpret this as Paalm's reluctantly obedient attempts to nudge Wax back to Elendel. But, as we all know, the letter didn't work. From the quote above we see that Wax believed the city held nothing for him. We later learn that Wax is running from the city because of the negative associations he has with Elendel and his uncle Edwarn. 

 

So, from Sazed's perspective, more drastic action was necessary. Wax needed either a positive association with the city that was strong enough to drown out the negative associations, or he needed such an overwhelmingly negative association with the Roughs that it made his feelings about Elendel pale in comparison. If home is where your heart is, then Wax was at home beside Lessie. The only practical solution to the problem is to get rid of Lessie.

 

I think that dying has to be what Harmony was pushing Lessie to do. I don't think that Bloody Tan needs to be under Sazed's control or influence though, so Tan as an agent of Autonomy works and even makes more sense to me (considering all his talk about puppets and whatnot). Tan was simply the next available opportunity for Lessie to meet her untimely end.

 

So, assuming my interpretation of events is accurate, you have to wonder why Lessie didn't just take a bullet in a garden-variety gunfight. The only straight-forward answer I can come up with is that taking a bullet didn't guarantee a fatal wound and it could potentially expose Lessie as a kandra. One question still bothers me though:

Was Lessie's capture a part of Harmony's plan to kill her off (in order to ensure either her death at Wax's hand or just a greater chance of a fatal wound), or was it part of Autonomy's plan to spike a Kandra (or spike someone close to Wax)?

[Kaymyth]

Admittedly, you've hit on the weakest point in the theory.

 

Harmony has a limited amount of foresight from Preservation.  I think he saw the probability of her death coming and chose to let it happen because he couldn't persuade her to persuade Wax to go back to Elendel.

 

But I also think that, depending on how much Autonomy knew about Harmony's plans, it's not outside the realm of possibility that he took advantage of that weakness.  Specifically, he used Tan to outwardly give Harmony what he wanted whilst getting his spike into Paalm right under Harmony's nose.  That takes "suspicious coincidence" and turns it into a conspiracy. 

 

Wheels within wheels.

[Datan Nomlibash]

Admittedly, you've hit on the weakest point in the theory.

 

Harmony has a limited amount of foresight from Preservation.  I think he saw the probability of her death coming and chose to let it happen because he couldn't persuade her to persuade Wax to go back to Elendel.

 

But I also think that, depending on how much Autonomy knew about Harmony's plans, it's not outside the realm of possibility that he took advantage of that weakness.  Specifically, he used Tan to outwardly give Harmony what he wanted whilst getting his spike into Paalm right under Harmony's nose.  That takes "suspicious coincidence" and turns it into a conspiracy. 

 

Wheels within wheels.

I thought that the foresight was from ruin since atium was his metal.

[natc]

Ruin couldn't see Preservation's last gambit coming nor what killing Elend would cause over a couple of minutes. Gets deceived a lot actually.

Preservation wrote a prophecy that didn't do anything for several millenia, at which point it came true to the letter. I think his foresight is better than the other guy.

[Stormgate]

But what is Harmony's foresight like? Is it the sum of the two Shards' abilities, or the average?

[Edgedancer]

But what is Harmony's foresight like? Is it the sum of the two Shards' abilities, or the average?

Well, while Preservation and Ruin are now connected their power and Investiture still exsists seperately, so i guess he can still use Preservation's predictions. Of course it is still possible that Ruin's influence could somehow interfere.

[Kaymyth]

But what is Harmony's foresight like? Is it the sum of the two Shards' abilities, or the average?

 

It should be the sum, but Preservation was really the one who had significant precognitive abilities.  That's how he was able to plan Ruin's eventual defeat, so I'm not really sure that Ruin had much to add to that.

[natc]

The subject of shard precognition is interesting, to be honest. The intents with more long-term natures to them rather than being a present thing seem better at it. Ruin is garbage at it, Honor was able to tell he was screwed but that's it. Cultivation and Preservation are described as or implied to be stronger in this ability.