Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: 4. Again, I still believe the current known Saboteur roles imply the remaining 1-2 Saboteurs should have stronger roles, including one with firepower potential (whether this is Mistborn or Coinshot). Otherwise we would not be in this situation. You would have a group of Loyalists with enough potential firepower to level a small space station. No smart group of Saboteurs would ever dare to attack. How do you resolve: A. Ocho shooting E!Croc B. Toucan being scanned by Flam Like, fundamentally Mistborn get Steel once and then can only get it again after the full eight cycle thing has been cycled. From your POV if one of them must have firepower potential, Mistborn is just a oneshot unless the game is predicted to end later than 8 cycles, in which case it is a twoshot (it is not going past C16 at 20 players and no GM models for that kind of length.) Either you think there is a third Coinshot hiding somewhere, or you think A or B is more likely to have our last Elim, right?
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 13 Posted January 13 23 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Generation numbers go downward "Human, I am not sure I comprehend the meaning of these words. Any finite set of real numbers may be sorted in descending order. How is this relevant?" "Query, do you intend to communicate that they 'go downward' by a fixed interval of one? That would make more sense." 24 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: How can we trust your 3rd claim? I am considering Seeking you purely so I can finally figure out who you are. "Meatbag, this unit has not requested your trust, and has no interest in performing transactions to obtain it. "This unit merely wishes to serve. This unit has observed that humans derive great joy from receiving claims. This unit has concluded that a single claim would be inadequate." "Claim: this unit is a Loyalist Smoker.
Melon Dingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mint Heron said: Wrt whoever who suggested that Ele Smoked Croc... I think the main issue is that Villagers tend to be more reluctant to hit the Smoke button due to scan worries, except in endgames. If anything, Araris, Wyrm, Drake, myself, and a few other Tyrian GMs have been - wow this sentence is completely not deanonymising at all - fighting a losing war for a while in terms of trying to incentivise Smoking from Villagers. It's not impossible, but it would surprise me regardless. wait, you aren't Araris, Wyrm or Drake??? My mind is blown edit darn shard didn't tell me I was ninjad by 20 posts Edited January 13 by Melon Dingo
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Just now, Melon Dingo said: wait, you aren't Araris, Wyrm or Drake??? My mind is blown I'm not bloodthirsty enough for it, no
Opal Lion Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Mint Heron said: How do you resolve: A. Ocho shooting E!Croc B. Toucan being scanned by Flam Like, fundamentally Mistborn get Steel once and then can only get it again after the full eight cycle thing has been cycled. From your POV if one of them must have firepower potential, Mistborn is just a oneshot unless the game is predicted to end later than 8 cycles, in which case it is a twoshot (it is not going past C16 at 20 players and no GM models for that kind of length.) Either you think there is a third Coinshot hiding somewhere, or you think A or B is more likely to have our last Elim, right? [You receive a personalized response] MESSAGE TO "MINT HERON" 1. Ah that's for you to figure out. I have important reading that cannot wait on such trivial matters. 2. In short, I think yes. It would be a good idea to clear the possibility of "Onyx Flamingo" and "Sunburst Toucan" potentially being allied Saboteurs. Given figure "Mauve Crocodile" died on the first night, I think it is fairly unlikely "Scarlet Octopus" shot a teammate (a little early for a play like that, they would've needed to think they were absolutely doomed as a team to pull that on night 1 in my opinion). 3. The Saboteurs get a standard night kill so I could see the case of having just a Mistborn be true, I suppose? If I really squint and ignore the fact that the Loyalists are quite strong in comparison for most scenarios involving this. [The message is signed at the bottom. You think it says "Dusk"]
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Opal Lion said: 3. The Saboteurs get a standard night kill so I could see the case of having just a Mistborn be true, I suppose? If I really squint and ignore the fact that the Loyalists are quite strong in comparison for most scenarios involving this. It does seem kinda weak for an additional firepower hypothesis, hence my question. 2 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: 2. In short, I think yes. It would be a good idea to clear the possibility of "Onyx Flamingo" and "Sunburst Toucan" potentially being allied Saboteurs. Given figure "Mauve Crocodile" died on the first night, I think it is fairly unlikely "Scarlet Octopus" shot a teammate (a little early for a play like that, they would've needed to think they were absolutely doomed as a team to pull that on night 1 in my opinion). Suppose Flam does turn out to be Village - what's your read of the situation then? Where do we go from there? (This assumes that v!Flam entails v!Toucan which I think is reasonable enough.)
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 hour ago, Mint Heron said: There is a very weird world where Meerkat is actually the kandra who ate Kanga and flipped Seeker, and Flam simply claimed their teammate's scans FWIW ( @Oxblood Beagle ) which gives us a Flam + Zebra solve for last Elims. Flam being willing to scan tonight puts a bit of a pin in this since Flam either has to claim a scan on someone who got killed, or you know. True, that is certainly a world. It would require some insane-level of acting from Flamingo and I think their actions, at least in end of D2 plus how they went about approaching their strong read on Toucan, makes me think that they are village
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: True, that is certainly a world. It would require some insane-level of acting from Flamingo and I think their actions, at least in end of D2 plus how they went about approaching their strong read on Toucan, makes me think that they are village Yeah. It's not my instinctive world, which I think entails we are looking more at a missing Lurcher/slipped Lurcher hunt at present. If I've missed it, where's your first take on where we should be looking?
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: It does seem kinda weak for an additional firepower hypothesis, hence my question. Suppose Flam does turn out to be Village - what's your read of the situation then? Where do we go from there? (This assumes that v!Flam entails v!Toucan which I think is reasonable enough.) Well, I have a pretty strong v!read on Flamingo. Seems like a trustworthy guy, i think its a good idea in the long run to trust them
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Onyx Flamingo said: Well, I have a pretty strong v!read on Flamingo. Seems like a trustworthy guy, i think its a good idea in the long run to trust them I'd agree but I think I'm curious about what Lion's worldview is. I don't disagree we're all stuck with a fairly unintuitive distro but it's interesting that Lion and Cham almost have opposite views about the direction to go in. And, as one of the guys suggesting the CS just smite Lion or Cham, I think it's worth hearing them out or finding out the nuts and bolts of their views, especially in the world they flip Village. If it's a PH, they've put effort into showing up and I kind of respect and don't wanna waste that either. Edited to add: 1 minute ago, Mint Heron said: I'd agree but I think I'm curious about what Lion's worldview is. I don't disagree we're all stuck with a fairly unintuitive distro but it's interesting that Lion and Cham almost have opposite views about the direction to go in. To be fair, this is true of nearly half the game, judging from the fact we've had a train on Ocho for the last two days.
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 9 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Yeah. It's not my instinctive world, which I think entails we are looking more at a missing Lurcher/slipped Lurcher hunt at present. If I've missed it, where's your first take on where we should be looking? I guess I always like to fall back on D1 since that has been quite an informative day. Albatross is my green check, so that's 100% never to be exe'd (unless we have some weird hidden Godfather role or something) Knowing that Kangaroo is Seeker, I wouldn't be initially looking at Gecko, Dragonfly, Weasel, and you. I think the only world that that makes sense is where it really counts on Crocodile being able to Riot before rollover, and that's such a risky move to make when losing Kangaroo would lead to the village potentially gaining the advantage (since the elims do not have any certainty of their Kandra being the higher generation) I don't think Axolotl makes sense to be elim because there's a contradiction in that Croc was pushing them while neither Iguana nor Kangaroo committed to taking them out. I don't think Iguana really would have started a counterwagon on a fellow elim after moving off Kangaroo since Elephant was another option right there to vote. Flamingo and Dingo are both center pieces here. Flamingo is vouching for Toucan while Dingo is vouching for Zebra. Both Toucan and Zebra didn't have strong D1s, so they're only ever elim in a world where the person vouching them is also elim. Between Flamingo and Dingo, if someone has to be an elim, I think it'd make more sense for it behavior-wise to be Dingo Rhinoceros also had a not very strong D1, but has been better at least in the following days. So, I guess that leaves me at the same PoE of <Rhinoceros, Dingo, Chameleon, and Lion>. That's probably in the order of how I would approach it, where Lion is the person I want to look at most @Onyx Flamingo What was your generation number as kandra again?
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: @Onyx Flamingo What was your generation number as kandra again? I am going to note in advance that something might happen here that might bring suspicion down on Flam. If so, y'all might wanna bookmark and come back to this Edited to add: I am not saying what it is at this point for reasons, I simply also do not want someone getting twitchy and murking Flam overnight just because I wasn't there to point it out. 13 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Between Flamingo and Dingo, if someone has to be an elim, I think it'd make more sense for it behavior-wise to be Dingo Flam is technically the pivotal vote that turned Ig into a viable train on D2. That to me does carry some weight unless we feel that was bus point. 13 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: (since the elims do not have any certainty of their Kandra being the higher generation) The only world I can see this being true (relative certainty) is if one of their kandra started with a single digit < 5 gen. But relying on Croc can also be risky because how do they know the Villager in question isn't Smoking? With Smoking being Turn-based, there is absolutely no reason to not Smoke during the Day to just remove Emotional Allomancy shenanigans. (To me this almost implies it only works if they're risk-happy or if Croc is Rioting off a teammate's vote.) Edited to add: In fact, maybe we're forgetting Elim fog-of-war. If you're an Elim team with 2 Seekers at the start, isn't your instinct to believe the Village might have a decent chunk of Smokers for balance? @Plum Rhinoceros @Oxblood Beagle - Do they dare to simply assume Rioting just...works in that landscape? 13 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Rhinoceros also had a not very strong D1, but has been better at least in the following days. Rhino I vaguely recall as being one of the pivotal votes on Meerkat but need to go back and check. I'm curious also (lol sorry) of your view on the D3 voting since to me, it was relatively stable on Ocho and I'm slightly inclined (respect the problem and Lion's+Weasel's instincts but) to think it was V/E. In which case our Meerkat CW taking off is already pretty wild as it is. I think in most worlds if it is 1-2 Elims left, the effect size will be quite small, so it may not be as informative, but I'm wondering if anyone particularly acquits themselves well on D3 and I think that's just mostly Rhino since there's separate reasons for most of the participants. Edited January 13 by Mint Heron
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: The only world I can see this being true (relative certainty) is if one of their kandra started with a single digit < 5 gen. But relying on Croc can also be risky because how do they know the Villager in question isn't Smoking? With Smoking being Turn-based, there is absolutely no reason to not Smoke during the Day to just remove Emotional Allomancy shenanigans. (To me this almost implies it only works if they're risk-happy or if Croc is Rioting off a teammate's vote.) True, and I think what we know of the elim team is that they were to some extent being risk-averse by trying to prevent both Kangaroo and Meerkat to be viable counterwagons, so I feel that this would be inconsistent with their prior behavior 5 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Rhino I vaguely recall as being one of the pivotal votes on Meerkat but need to go back and check. I'm curious also (lol sorry) of your view on the D3 voting since to me, it was relatively stable on Ocho and I'm slightly inclined (respect the problem and Lion's+Weasel's instincts but) to think it was V/E. In which case our Meerkat CW taking off is already pretty wild as it is. Acknowledged, but if I'm remembering correctly, at this point only Axolotl, Toucan, Zebra, Lion, and Chameleon have not ended a day voting a flipped elim. Toucan and Zebra only have a chance of being elims if the person vouching them is also elim, and I can't see how Axolotl is elim based on the elim's behavior at that point. So I guess if it's not any of the three lower in my PoE, then there has to be a weaker point somewhere. Then again, I have to agree that he was one of the main people who helped the push on Meerkat take off. And also, thinking of D2, I think it might only make sense that he's elim if Octo is also elim
Violet Axolotl Posted January 13 Posted January 13 I have like no idea what's going on and I'm gonna have to leave soon, who should I lurch??? Ok I have to leave I'm just gonna pick
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Violet Axolotl said: I have like no idea what's going on and I'm gonna have to leave soon, who should I lurch??? Given where everyone is... Man y'all gonna hate hearing me say this but. Beagle. If you feel slightly spicy, Flam. If (and don't reply to this part) you for some reason lied and didn't actually Lurch me last Night, you can consider one now (you can't retarget anymore) because I'm eating Meerkat tonight to get the Seeker role.
Violet Axolotl Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Just now, Mint Heron said: Given where everyone is... Man y'all gonna hate hearing me say this but. Beagle. If you feel slightly spicy, Flam. If (and don't reply to this part) you for some reason lied and didn't actually Lurch me last Night, you can consider one now (you can't retarget anymore) because I'm eating Meerkat tonight to get the Seeker role. Got it
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Given where everyone is... Man y'all gonna hate hearing me say this but. Beagle. If you feel slightly spicy, Flam. If (and don't reply to this part) you for some reason lied and didn't actually Lurch me last Night, you can consider one now (you can't retarget anymore) because I'm eating Meerkat tonight to get the Seeker role. I think it might have gone unnoticed, but I did say earlier that I rolled Lurcher this cycle, so I think Axolotl can protect someone else
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Just now, Oxblood Beagle said: I think it might have gone unnoticed, but I did say earlier that I rolled Lurcher this cycle, so I think Axolotl can protect someone else Axl's someone else has to be Flam or Dragonfly thereabouts but I think you should be protected regardless because you've been anchoring the rollover crew and I personally consider that more valuable than raw roles at this stage. Reasoning that people will hate: Dingo and Flam are Seekers and that's valuable but given the connectives and the problem at hand, if we lose either of them, we get confirmation of the chain. Conversely if they aren't shot at, it's also telling. Similar RE: trying to make sure the Lurchers and CS cross-protect - like kind of maybe but we are starting to think something is wrong with that cluster and the Elims hitting in that cluster actually helps us, so that's not the worst thing. Fundamentally we have a numerical advantage as long as the CS-es don't shoot too wildly and we show up and keep doing the work and voting. We are Villagers before we are roles. We always need to remember this. Edited to add: 3 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: True, and I think what we know of the elim team is that they were to some extent being risk-averse by trying to prevent both Kangaroo and Meerkat to be viable counterwagons, so I feel that this would be inconsistent with their prior behavior Fair. But also they don't know what we do know - I do feel an Elim team with 2 Seekers probably expects a decent amount of roles but also Smokers Village-side. It's the natural balance at least, meaning they had to weigh 'hostile counter-Smoking' into their calculations when trying to decide if Croc should Riot. 4 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Acknowledged, but if I'm remembering correctly, at this point only Axolotl, Toucan, Zebra, Lion, and Chameleon have not ended a day voting a flipped elim. Toucan and Zebra only have a chance of being elims if the person vouching them is also elim, and I can't see how Axolotl is elim based on the elim's behavior at that point. So I guess if it's not any of the three lower in my PoE, then there has to be a weaker point somewhere. Fair point. It being both Lion and Cham would be so incredibly convenient that I'm refusing to believe it as a starting proposition. It does mean that the remaining Elim(s) have likely bussed at least once. IDK man that's more the thing the SE people who moonlight on MU here are better at than me, I do not like to go after people who do Villagery things until I have gone through the tier of people who haven't done Villagery things.
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Reasoning that people will hate: Dingo and Flam are Seekers and that's valuable but given the connectives and the problem at hand, if we lose either of them, we get confirmation of the chain. Conversely if they aren't shot at, it's also telling. Similar RE: trying to make sure the Lurchers and CS cross-protect - like kind of maybe but we are starting to think something is wrong with that cluster and the Elims hitting in that cluster actually helps us, so that's not the worst thing. True, if they die as villagers, then they both resolve themselves and also the person that they are vouching for 7 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Fair. But also they don't know what we do know - I do feel an Elim team with 2 Seekers probably expects a decent amount of roles but also Smokers Village-side. It's the natural balance at least, meaning they had to weigh 'hostile counter-Smoking' into their calculations when trying to decide if Croc should Riot. Fair point. On there being 2 Seekers, it does make me feel like it's a 6 elim team with another Kandra and a Lurcher. I feel like 2 Seekers is a bit much for just 1 Kandra and Seeker is an elim role that I feel diminishes in value the longer the game goes (since there will come a point where people will just outright reveal their roles; ex: D3). Lurcher makes the most sense in a 2 V!Coinshot world and 4 V!Mistborn where very lucky rolls could lead to all of them being Coinshot early on 11 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Fair point. It being both Lion and Cham would be so incredibly convenient that I'm refusing to believe it as a starting proposition. It does mean that the remaining Elim(s) have likely bussed at least once. IDK man that's more the thing the SE people who moonlight on MU here are better at than me, I do not like to go after people who do Villagery things until I have gone through the tier of people who haven't done Villagery things. Agreed, hence why I'm also not trying to think through it deeply until the next day begins because the results of this night should be quite informative that it would be a lot easier to make the best decision for tomorrow
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 13 Posted January 13 DF said they were protecting Flam. Beagle is self-protecting. Yeah, we need a protect on Heron now.
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: DF said they were protecting Flam. Beagle is self-protecting. Yeah, we need a protect on Heron now. Neither Axolotl nor Zebra can protect Heron due to double targeting rules, so it's basically @Indigo Weasel to ask for this. I can also redirect to protecting him if we don't get confirmation from Weasel
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 16 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said: So do I send in a non-public coinshot kill? My vote is for no kill but if you're looking to kill someone, I would probably suggest sticking to the <Cham, Lion> set (sorry Cham, Lion...) 8 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: Yeah, we need a protect on Heron now. Tbh I'm fine dying lol.
Indigo Weasel Posted January 13 Posted January 13 31 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Neither Axolotl nor Zebra can protect Heron due to double targeting rules, so it's basically @Indigo Weasel to ask for this. I can also redirect to protecting him if we don't get confirmation from Weasel 25 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: My vote is for no kill but if you're looking to kill someone, I would probably suggest sticking to the <Cham, Lion> set (sorry Cham, Lion...) Tbh I'm fine dying lol. I already got him, I put it in an hour or two ago, I just thought we weren’t coordinating lurches
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